Russian Economy General News: #3

CB: External Debt of the Russian Federation for 2014 fell 18% to $ 599.5 billion

MOSCOW, January 20. / TASS /. The external debt of the Russian Federation, according to preliminary estimates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2014 decreased by 18% to 599.5 billion dollars as of 1 January 2015, according to the materials of the Bank of Russia.

On 1 January 2014 foreign debt amounted to 728.86 billion dollars.

According to materials of the Bank of Russia, the organs of state administration 41.5 billion, the new Russian debt on January 1, 2015 amounted to 39.18 billion dollars, a decrease of 33.6% year on Soviet-era debt decreased by 11.5% to 1, 77 billion dollars. It is the duty of the Central Bank decreased by 37.5% to 10.4 billion dollars, the debt of the banking sector - by 20% to 171.1 billion dollars, other sectors - 376.5 billion dollars.

Ulyukayev: Reserves in 2015-2017 years will be enough to cover the missing budget revenues

The total amount of the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund now stands at about 10 trillion rubles., Reminded the Minister of Economic Development

MOSCOW, January 14. / TASS /. Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that the accumulated reserves of the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund in the 2015-2017 years will be enough to cover the missing revenues. He expressed this opinion, speaking at the Gaidar Forum in Moscow.

He recalled that the total amount of the two funds is now about 10 trillion rubles., NWF commitments for future infrastructure projects account for 1.7 trillion rubles.

"That is 8.3 trillion rubles. - It's liquid assets. If we believe that the financial gap we will have in 2015 to 3 trillion, that these reserves will last for three years in the parameters equal to 2015. However, in the 2015-2016 fiscal rule years implies a sharp change in the level of costs and reduction of financial gap. That is to say reserves in any case be more than enough "- said the minister.

Estimated Finance Minister Anton Siluanova, the budget deficit of the Russian Federation in 2015, is likely to be no more than 2%, a maximum of 3% of GDP.

Hopefully in the next 3 years they can double the amount of NWF/RF to like 20 Trillion , so that it can support budget for 6 years ......not sure if that is possible or just wishful thinking on my part.

I think they should reduce the military expendure by says 2 Trillion and reduce the budget expenditure specially some social program from 10 % to 20 %

Russia Budget for 2011-2020 is 23 Trillion , Shaving of 3 trillion by 2020 wont do much harm I feel.

Also reducing Social Spending by 1 trillion rouble by 2020 should be feseable.

HSE has made some projection based on Average Oil Price of $50 in 2015-2017 , The Growth will be down by

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2643523

2015 : -6.5 %
2016 : - 4.4 %
2017 : - 0.6 %

So the drop in GDP based on conservative estimates by HSE if Oil stays at $50 would be ~ 12 % Drop in GDP in 2015-2017

Austin wrote:Hopefully in the next 3 years they can double the amount of NWF/RF to like 20 Trillion , so that it can support budget for 6 years ......not sure if that is possible or just wishful thinking on my part.

I think they should reduce the military expendure by says 2 Trillion and reduce the budget expenditure specially some social program from 10 % to 20 %

Russia Budget for 2011-2020 is 23 Trillion , Shaving of 3 trillion by 2020 wont do much harm I feel.

Also reducing Social Spending by 1 trillion rouble by 2020 should be feseable.

HSE has made some projection based on Average Oil Price of $50 in 2015-2017 , The Growth will be down by

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2643523

2015 : -6.5 %
2016 : - 4.4 %
2017 : - 0.6 %

So the drop in GDP based on conservative estimates by HSE if Oil stays at $50 would be ~ 12 % Drop in GDP in 2015-2017

I think those projections ignore growth and potential growth in other areas of the economy to be frank, and overstate the loss of investor confidence. Basically I've heard of almost no major investors pulling out from Russia; other than Google which had a couple development offices here - but their pullout was clearly political; they are practically intertwined with US intelligence.

Russia is aiming for 2 years of deficit in the worse case.. and just 6 months in 2015 in the best one.. That correct the argument that Russia will not create new jobs and replace the investors that left.. just today a US Company announced investments in Russia energy in the far east..
not obeying US sanctions. And already the oil everyone and their mother including saudi Arabia is saying it will stabilize and improve.. Simply US cannot continue with too low shale oil prices for very long.. already one american shale company filled for bankruptcy and this is why Saudi Arabia is raising the oil a bit to not put too much pressure in US shale business..

Now here is some great news

Russia foreign debt (public + state one) has droped by 129.4 billion $ in a SINGLE year or almost 18%

Incredible default Russia

Russia's foreign debt at January 1, 2015 was $ 599.497 billion, a decline for the year to $ 129.4 billion, or 17.8%. In the fourth quarter of last year, domestic borrowers paid nearly $ 80 billion. The state debt (including obligations of the Central Bank) dropped even more - by 33.2%, to $ 51.9 billion. Of this amount, governments have to $ 41.516 billion for the Central Bank - $ 10.407 billion

sepheronx wrote:

kvs wrote:

Viktor wrote:Now here is some great news    

Russia foreign debt (public + state one) has droped by 129.4 billion $ in a SINGLE year   or almost 18%

Incredible default Russia

Russia's foreign debt at January 1, 2015 was $ 599.497 billion, a decline for the year to $ 129.4 billion, or 17.8%. In the fourth quarter of last year, domestic borrowers paid nearly $ 80 billion. The state debt (including obligations of the Central Bank) dropped even more - by 33.2%, to $ 51.9 billion. Of this amount, governments have to $ 41.516 billion for the Central Bank - $ 10.407 billion

Of the remaining $599.497 billion only part is real debt.

http://www.bne.eu/content/story/fears-russian-credit-crunch-greatly-exaggerated-say-analysts

As for the western rating companies (so-called agencies) about to rank Russia's sovereign credit rating as junk
when it has a 5% of GDP in debt, that speaks for itself.

That is the thing.  They keep making everyones debt in Russia the national debt.  Russia's debt itself is only a fraction of that.  That is listed is the national foreign debt and not the governments.  If we were to add Japanese private debt to foreign entities with the governments debt, then it would be higher than the 290% of GDP that it is now.

This is also true about U.S. debt, the combined govt., corporate, individual debt is well over $60 trillion.

Amount of Russian Debt Coming Due in 2015 Is Overstated

Russian investment bank, Renaissance Capital estimates the official $120bn statistic is overblown by 40%

Dvorkovich: budget cuts in 2015 could reach 15%

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich did not rule scale spending cuts budget in 2015 to 15%. "We will reduce some of the costs by 10%, perhaps - by 15%." The first number he called "More likely". Remaining the same the budget deficit will be financed from the accumulated reserves from previous years, he said, noting that Russia will use the reserves for "The most important priorities."

"In the first quarter of 2015. stability of the banking system is a key factor, so we decided to use part of the reserves to recapitalize banks. For the year as a whole, we use part of the reserves to maintain the stability of the fiscal system, "- said Dvorkovich at a session of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Deputy Prime Minister also said that the oil price is not so important for Russia's budgetary system as before.

Dvorkovich also said that there is no reason to cancel the food sanctions imposed by Russia against the West. "We have no plans yet to cancel the embargo, and further depends on what will happen to the sanctions", - quotes the statement of Vice-Premier journalists TASS. He added that Western sanctions have deprived the Russian manufacturers able to borrow at competitive rates.

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https://www.russiadefence.net/viewtopic.forum?t=3775

Contrary to Obama's statements in his State of the Union speech, Russia is in perfect calm

I don't think we should care much about what outside(west) says because it is BS more then half the time. Russia should work on becoming self reliant and getting rid of the petro dollar and the dollar in general.

Russia’s anti-crisis plan to require $21 billion — deputy PM

http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/772463

Biggest oil platform in the world on sea is Russian and have began operations.. now..  


http://actualidad.rt.com/economia/164086-rusia-petroleo-mayor-plataforma-extraccion


It have about 9 Billions USD $ in oil .. and is in cooperation with US exxon mobile and Japan..
If anyone had doubts about the profitability of Oil and the future of Russia oil industry.. this should
put it to rest.. Russia will start drilling in the sea. This shows how confident is not only RUssia..but also
US and JApan energy companies about the importance of Oil deposits in the world.  Previosly it is estimated
by Opec members than demand for energy will triple in the next decade..  So today there is oversupply
but in just 5 years things will be completely different..Because population will grow , energy demands will grow
too with the nations development.. and the exporting of energy will be less..and the price of oil will sky rocket. USA for example will not have enough Oil and Gas for its own needs..and will need to import more from VEnezuela ,Canada and Mexico..and  probably even buy energy from Russia.

Is also interesting to notice how US sanctions are complete hypocrisy .. The make exceptions when is convent
for their major energy companies. Exxon Mobil will not have to obey the US sanctions.. and you see there Europe
being taken as fool.. because US gov allow loopholes on sanctions to Russia whenever benefit them. This
happens with NASA buying space technology from RUssia and also buying military hardware for afganistan. and
for energy business.

If anyone is an investor here.. go take your money RUN an invest in Oil and Gas.. is a safe market and we witness
today is just artificially lowered prices and temporary. i will not be surprised that Oil returns to $100 per barrel at end of year.. and $120 in 2 years.

Even the US govt. isn't willing to 'isolate' Russia...  

Congress alarmed by plans to use Russian system to route 911 calls


... China to invest $242 billion to create a massive 7,000 km fast rail line from Beijing to Moscow and back, because you know Russia is so 'isolated':

Moscow to Beijing in 2 days: China to build $242bn high-speed railway

The title is misleading, they say to Beijing to Moscow would take 2 days as opposed to 5 days normally, but in reality it will only take 30 hrs in total (as admitted in the article) with the new 7,000 km rail line. We're talking about only 1 day and 6 hours, so if there's 24 hours in a day and you could fit '4' 6 hour periods in a 24 hour period...which means the trip to Beijing to Moscow would only take an astonishing '1.4' days in total, virtually '1/3'-'1/4th' the time it would take normally. Naturally this will also aid Russia in developing it's Far East region.