Russian Economy General News: #3

Austin wrote:Russia’s anti-crisis program offers partial ‘pain relief’ — ex-finance minister Kudrin

Austin wrote:Russia’s anti-crisis program offers partial ‘pain relief’ — ex-finance minister Kudrin

Austin wrote:I was expecting a 50 % Fall in FDI to some where around $30 billion but 19 is a drastic fall

kvs wrote:

I wonder if the clowns who spew about the ruble FX rate drop would care to explain how the ruble "collapse"
is intrinsically bad for Russia.   It dropped much more between 1998 and 1999 and we all know the rest of the
story.

TR1 wrote:Do you not understand the effect a ruble collapse has on a large proportion of the population, and especially those with savings?

Russian's savings got fucked in 1991, they got fucked in 1998, and they recently got fucked again.

Huy Phúc wrote:The very fact is that, oil price is being tied to rub (ruble) value and rub ratio, not to dollars.

If you look at the decreasing and increasing of oil price recently, and compare with the rub:USD ratio, well you can see that, while oil price in USD decreased partially toghether with the rub ratio, or in other words oil price in rub is more or less the same.

That means Russia sells oil by rub, not by USD. Russia controls oil price by its rub value.

Why ? Because Russia economy is powerful and independent. There is no way for USD to wreck havoc inside Russia.

Unlike the propaganda of the West, Russia manufacturing sector is independent. Russia not only exports oil, but also supreme class grain powder, expensive cheese, rocket engines, and many other high-tech, high-quality goods.

Huy Phúc wrote:Russia has been sending out considerable amount of ruble, caused inflation. This change occured about 1-2 days after the event of 15 December 2014.

In 2014, Russia spent 70 billion of USD of foreign exchange to buy rub, to keep the value of the rub stable. Then after that, Russia sent paper rub out to buy gold, I means true gold, not paper gold, of the U.S. Unlike the U.S. who is living by artificial value and stock market bubble, Russia has a healthy economy and gold price will increase inside that healthy economy. When gold price increase, Russia will use gold to buy back the spent rub.

So you can see, in 2013 Russia sold rub with high price, in 2014 bought back rub with low price, in 2015 sold rub again, and Russia receives a huge profit from that. Russia's profit is enhanced by the wave resonance caused by the West itself. And if the resonance becomes too powerful, the West will be decisively crushed.

However, right at the time of sending rub into the market, Russia dramatically increased the bank interest rate. That encouraged Russian people to send rub to the bank. Paper rub accumulated inside the people. Russia was hanging a heavy boulder over the head of American stocks and was gathering the force.

In December 2014, American stock wasa directly proportional with rub. But in January 2015, it became different. Only a tiny vibration of rub can cause a great vibration of American stock.

Just now Russia has decreased the bank interest, and the value of the rub accumulated inside the people is decreased. As a result, when interest rate decreased, Russian people sold rub to buy gold. Before that, Russia notified this event to America, so that America sent gold to the market, decreased the gold price from 1300 to 1250, so that Russian people can buy gold with low price.

And in the future, when gold price rises, Russia will sell gold with high price.

However, the U.S. cannot sustain these blows for long. Russian foreign exchange is more than able to buy all the American gold reserve. Not to mentions that other BRICS allies of Russia, like China has a foreign exchange 10 times more than America.

Days ago, the West tell that they might expell Russia from SWIFT. Mevedev responded: if you dare to do that we Russia will pay back equally. Just try it.

But this world has already know how severe the payback is.

Austin wrote:I was expecting a 50 % Fall in FDI to some where around $30 billion but 19 is a drastic fall

Russian's savings got fucked in 1991, they got fucked in 1998, and they recently got fucked again.

TR1 wrote:

kvs wrote:

I wonder if the clowns who spew about the ruble FX rate drop would care to explain how the ruble "collapse"
is intrinsically bad for Russia.   It dropped much more between 1998 and 1999 and we all know the rest of the
story.

Do you not understand the effect a ruble collapse has on a large proportion of the population, and especially those with savings?

Russian's savings got fucked in 1991, they got fucked in 1998, and they recently got fucked again.

kvs wrote:
They got fucked because there were no capital and exchange controls. Under Yeltsin, when he privatized the central bank and got rid of the capital and exchange controls the Rouble hyperinflated over night. A nationalized central bank plus full blown capital and exchange controls should prevent such scenarios indefinitely.

TR1 wrote:

kvs wrote:

I wonder if the clowns who spew about the ruble FX rate drop would care to explain how the ruble "collapse"
is intrinsically bad for Russia.   It dropped much more between 1998 and 1999 and we all know the rest of the
story.

Do you not understand the effect a ruble collapse has on a large proportion of the population, and especially those with savings?

Russian's savings got fucked in 1991, they got fucked in 1998, and they recently got fucked again.

"Well, what can be defaulted at such a low level of public external debt?" - Asks Chairman of the financial mega-regulator, commenting predictions of Western experts on the volatile situation in the Russian economy and the implications for the country within two years.

"And even corporate foreign debt in 2014 fell somewhere in the hundred billion dollars, that is, companies have reduced their foreign borrowings, payable on that amount - judged Nabiullina. - Why can they do this? Because basically it kompanii- Exporters who have export earnings. " As a result - all the speculation that Russia in the next two years would default, it is "to put it mildly, an exaggeration," she concluded.

Earlier, a similar statement was made ​​by Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev, who recalled that "short-term debt of Russian companies is much lower, which means that much less risk of default and the entry into force of various covenants."

In the meantime, the monetary authorities hand in hand with the government and other agencies continue to struggle with the main enemy - inflation. "We now make predictions, and they show that inflation will peak in the second quarter of this year," - said the head of the Central Bank. In the summer it will go to slide and come to a more familiar one-digit level already in 2016.

Significant role that life has become more expensive in Russia accelerated played "disposable factors", the effect of which will be felt for a long time, warned Nabiullina. And the fact that the exchange rate after the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank from 17 to 15 per cent went down, was expected. "This shows that the rates affect the currency market, but it has an impact not only our interest rate decision, but the price of oil, which at the end of this week, a few grew, - she said. - And we do not see more of factors that will affect the depreciation of the ruble, as prerequisites for the strengthening of a lot more than to loosen. "

Among the factors that are believed by experts, cease to affect the economy of Russia, Nabiullina mentioned decline in the international rating of the country. As a rule, this has an impact on the stock and financial markets, but "we can not say that the rating determines somehow the global economic situation." There are important other factors that say about the level of unemployment and the opportunity to continue the development of domestic production. "This is a global, fundamental things, and we need to pay attention on them. And then the ratings will go up," - concluded the Chairman of the Central Bank.

On Monday, the international agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the sovereign rating of the Russian Federation to the speculative grade BB + with a negative outlook. However, experts agree that much of a problem for the market it will not create as the decision was expected. For example, last year the S & P first of the "Big Three" in April lowered Russia's rating to BBB-, while Fitch and Moody's have resorted to such measures only in January.

• Events Plan is estimated at 2,332 trillion rubles.
  
     One point is already made: from 1 February held indexation of pensions by 11.4 percent, that is, the rate of inflation in 2014.
  
     Most of the expenditure budget for this year want to cut by 10 percent.
  
     Expenditure on social commitments will be increased.
  
     Banks will trillion rubles from the Deposit Insurance Agency, with the obligation to use them for long-term lending business.
  
     Parents are allowed to take 20 thousand rubles in cash from matkapitala.
  
     The state will help those who can not pay the mortgage, including foreign exchange.
  
     In Russia there will be a "social mortgage". This is for those who are on the level of their income will not be able to buy a home in the new economy. They can provide preferential interest rates.
  
     Those who have lost their jobs or can stay without it, too, is planned to help. To allocate money for public works and advanced vocational training.
  
     In terms of 60 points, for many of these agencies should prepare draft laws or government regulations. Timing is very tight: the end of February - early March.
  
     To prevent the shortage of medicines, the Russian manufacturers allow to raise prices. But once that is not expensive preparations every day.
  
     And support those who are entitled to receive state social assistance in the form of social services. It will not change. What would have been an expensive drug, even foreign-made changes in its procurement will not.
  
     Air and railway tickets, too, will not give wildly cheaper. The rate of value added tax for domestic transport fell to 10 percent. Earlier VAT in this area was 18 percent.
     This will create a bank of "bad debts" to support important for the economy of companies, who can not cope with financial problems.
  
     For businesses, acting as executors of state contracts will not apply penalties if they do not keep within deadlines.
  
     Will double the marginal revenue. Mikroorganizatsy for up to 120 million rubles for small businesses - 800 million, for an average - to 2 billion. And then more companies will be able to qualify for benefits.
  
     Regions were given the right to reduce the tax rate for a single tax on imputed income for small businesses with 15 to 7.5 percent. And the income tax from 6 to 1 per cent for the simplified tax system. This will significantly reduce the tax burden.
  
     For individual entrepreneurs simplify the process of registration and reporting, all will be in the "single window".
  
     Two-year tax holiday for newly registered individual entrepreneurs to extend to the scope of industrial and domestic services. Previously, it was only on social services.
  
     In 2015, the budget allocated an additional 50 billion rubles to support agricultural enterprises.

MOSCOW, January 31 (Sputnik) — Russia's Ministry of Economic Development has revised economic forecast for 2015 and expects country's gross domestic product (GPD) to shrink by three percent and inflation to hit 12 percent with oil prices at $50 a barrel, the ministry's head said Saturday.

"We have issued a forecast for 2015, which is based on the current market prices, that is around $50 per a barrel for the entire year. At the same time, the consensus forecasts are indicating higher rates, but we take the most conservative figures into account. This means quite significant GDP decline of three percent," Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukaev told reporters.

The minister added that inflation forecast for 2015 was worsened from 7.5 percent to 12 percent, while capital flight from Russia is estimated to be $115 billion.

Capital investment — cash invested in firms' tangible assets such as building and infrastructure — was likely to fall by 13 percent this year and retail sales by 8 percent.

Earlier this month, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that with the average oil price at $50 per barrel in 2015 Russia could lose around 3 trillion rubles ($43 billion) in revenues.

Russia, a country heavily reliant on revenue from oil exports, is currently experiencing significant economic problem due to a sharp decline in global oil prices, which dropped dramatically since June 2014.

Another reason for economic downturn in Russia is the sanctions imposed by the West against the country over its alleged participation in Ukrainian conflict, a claim that Moscow has repeatedly denied.

The ruble has lost approximately half its value against the US dollar since mid-2014.