Russian Economy General News: #4

Nice

​Russia ratifies $100bn BRICS New Development Bank

Viktor wrote:Nice  

​Russia ratifies $100bn BRICS New Development Bank

We'll have to wait a long way ahead for the BRICS NDB to become reality, 'cause both Brazilian Government and especially Congress work on a snail's pace...

Why Russia Isn't The Soviet Union In One Chart

Austin wrote:Why Russia Isn't The Soviet Union In One Chart

Ever since it annexed Crimea last year in a blatant violation of international law, Russia has been following a proudly, even ostentatiously anti-Western course. The rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin has stopped paying lip service to the idea of cooperation with Europe and the United States and has quite unapologetically painted the West as an alien, enemy force hellbent on Russia’s destruction. Putin has always been capable of singing an anti-Western turn, of course, but it used to be balanced by occasional notes of cooperation and even-handedness. That’s ceased.

Did this guy say the same about Kosovo? Or the illegal Iraq war, or th annexation of hawaii, or the anti Russian rhetorics the west spews daily basis.

New BRICS bank ,Russian SWIFT , trade-exhange with ruble currency with other many countries..etc, thats how you catch U.S balls.

ahmedfire wrote:New BRICS bank ,Russian SWIFT , trade-exhange with ruble currency with other many countries..etc, thats how you catch U.S balls.

Did EEU/Russia sign a free trade deal with Egypt yet? Cause that will be the next smartest move as Egyptian goods will do well in Russia and it seems Egypt is interested in both military and civil goods from Russia. Both countries need to work closer, same with Venezuela and the likes.

This Is The Biggest Problem Facing The World Today: 9 Countries Have Debt-To-GDP Over 300%

We will save the Chinese consumer goods

There is a flaw with the thinking in this article:

"For garment production and light industry today's crisis - almost a disaster - said the head of the center of research of the Russian University of Cooperation Andrew Arno. - In Russia now almost do not produce high-quality fabrics and accessories, in addition, all the sewing machines, with rare exceptions, imported, which means that the cost of components also increased. "

The problem people don't seem to realize is that yes, the initial investment is high, but over time, the products will become cheaper as the equipment will pay for itself over that time. No investment is instantly a huge success. As well, they can now source the garments from other countries like Bangladesh and India where cloth and material is much cheaper, so domestic makers of clothing in Russia will be able to still make products cheaper with cloth from the other countries where their currency are more on par with the Ruble. They can even purchase from Iran the cloth. There is also the development of a genetically modified cotton plant that can grow in Russia, so they can also grow cotton domestically.

These graphs are dubious. It claims Russia had a 65% GDP debt in the 2nd quarter of 2014. That is before the ruble devaluation.
But even if you take the overly high value of $700 billion debt (including private debt) then it makes for 33% and not 65%.

The 65% figure is closer to what the fraction is today given the ruble devaluation.

sepheronx wrote:We will save the Chinese consumer goods

There is a flaw with the thinking in this article:

"For garment production and light industry today's crisis - almost a disaster - said the head of the center of research of the Russian University of Cooperation Andrew Arno. - In Russia now almost do not produce high-quality fabrics and accessories, in addition, all the sewing machines, with rare exceptions, imported, which means that the cost of components also increased. "

The problem people don't seem to realize is that yes, the initial investment is high, but over time, the products will become cheaper as the equipment will pay for itself over that time.  No investment is instantly a huge success.  As well, they can now source the garments from other countries like Bangladesh and India where cloth and material is much cheaper, so domestic makers of clothing in Russia will be able to still make products cheaper with cloth from the other countries where their currency are more on par with the Ruble.  They can even purchase from Iran the cloth.  There is also the development of a genetically modified cotton plant that can grow in Russia, so they can also grow cotton domestically.

These "experts" are typical economists.  They only focus on a very narrow set of variables.   The sorts of details you describe don't enter the tiny bubble that they reside in.  

BTW, I keep on harping about monetization in the Russian economy.  Well, I just found out from relatives who live in a city on the Volga River, that enterprises are still making purchases and sales in barter terms.   I am not talking about minor stuff, the barter includes exchanging finished apartment units for construction materials.   You can see that this involves some serious money if the transaction was to be in currency.   So any clown yapping about there being an excess of rubles in the Russian economy is full of shit.  The Russian GDP has a long way to go to transition to non-barter exchange.   Nabiullina needs to take a memo.

I read several years ago that one of the reasons for the persistence of barter in the Russian economy is actually a lack of liquidity.   This is the real deal
and not monetarist BS of the Jeffrey Sachs variety from the 1990s.   The "Harvard Boys" actually claimed you could transition to capitalism in a few months and somehow all the prices would just magically adjust with the pool of original Soviet rubles.    It is rather clear that this is a con job.

kvs wrote:

sepheronx wrote:We will save the Chinese consumer goods

There is a flaw with the thinking in this article:

"For garment production and light industry today's crisis - almost a disaster - said the head of the center of research of the Russian University of Cooperation Andrew Arno. - In Russia now almost do not produce high-quality fabrics and accessories, in addition, all the sewing machines, with rare exceptions, imported, which means that the cost of components also increased. "

The problem people don't seem to realize is that yes, the initial investment is high, but over time, the products will become cheaper as the equipment will pay for itself over that time.  No investment is instantly a huge success.  As well, they can now source the garments from other countries like Bangladesh and India where cloth and material is much cheaper, so domestic makers of clothing in Russia will be able to still make products cheaper with cloth from the other countries where their currency are more on par with the Ruble.  They can even purchase from Iran the cloth.  There is also the development of a genetically modified cotton plant that can grow in Russia, so they can also grow cotton domestically.

These "experts" are typical economists.  They only focus on a very narrow set of variables.   The sorts of details you describe don't enter the tiny bubble that they reside in.  

BTW, I keep on harping about monetization in the Russian economy.  Well, I just found out from relatives who live in a city on the Volga River, that enterprises are still making purchases and sales in barter terms.   I am not talking about minor stuff, the barter includes exchanging finished apartment units for construction materials.   You can see that this involves some serious money if the transaction was to be in currency.   So any clown yapping about there being an excess of rubles in the Russian economy is full of shit.  The Russian GDP has a long way to go to transition to non-barter exchange.   Nabiullina needs to take a memo.

I read several years ago that one of the reasons for the persistence of barter in the Russian economy is actually a lack of liquidity.   This is the real deal
and not monetarist BS of the Jeffrey Sachs variety from the 1990s.   The "Harvard Boys" actually claimed you could transition to capitalism in a few months and somehow all the prices would just magically adjust with the pool of original Soviet rubles.    It is rather clear that this is a con job.

What is Russia's option in this case?

The exchange rate concept is a total joke as the Ruble is still fluctuating a lot (same with CAD) to that of a currency from a country extremely heavily in debt. A joke and makes me wonder much about the economy. The Ruble should be printed by the government and handed out to the civil market and hopes to increase print while increase circulation. Screw what its value is to USD, they need to do what they need to do in order to expand and survive. These fiat currencies are nothing but. A gold, Silver and Platinum currency needs to exist for Russian importing and exporting unless the country they are importing/exporting to agree to use Rubles and or their respective currency at an exchange rate between their demand. And in this case, a proper oil barter hq needs to be setup in Russia, much like the gas one that was opened recently. Heavy investments of Russian currency in domestic market for development specifically for the high demand products that have become too expensive. Like electronic components and garment items. Problem all surround both the bank, the government and the CBR.

sepheronx wrote:
What is Russia's option in this case?

The exchange rate concept is a total joke as the Ruble is still fluctuating a lot (same with CAD) to that of a currency from a country extremely heavily in debt.  A joke and makes me wonder much about the economy.  The Ruble should be printed by the government and handed out to the civil market and hopes to increase print while increase circulation.  Screw what its value is to USD, they need to do what they need to do in order to expand and survive.  These fiat currencies are nothing but.  A gold, Silver and Platinum currency needs to exist for Russian importing and exporting unless the country they are importing/exporting to agree to use Rubles and or their respective currency at an exchange rate between their demand.  And in this case, a proper oil barter hq needs to be setup in Russia, much like the gas one that was opened recently.  Heavy investments of Russian currency in domestic market for development specifically for the high demand products that have become too expensive.  Like electronic components and garment items.  Problem all surround both the bank, the government and the CBR.

The best policy is a low interest rate policy. It is better than printing money. Ridiculous rates around 10% are simply not justified by
the actual state of the money supply in Russia. It is part of routine business activity to borrow money from banks as part of
their day to day operations. In Russia they face a major penalty for doing this in the form of grossly excessive interest rates. No
wonder many companies found ways to borrow abroad. Others find ways to function using barter. This retarded tight ass monetary
policy is the source of many problems in Russia.

It is a lie that Russia's inflation rate reflects excess liquidity. So applying liquidity controls via high interest rates is essentially sabotaging
the economy. Putin may have skills to run the country but it appears that economics is not his strong suit. He has been coddling monetarist
prats since 1999. It's time to show them the door. Russia is not in the QE flood regime of the west. It needs to worry about easing
the ludicrous constraints on the circulation of money before worrying about fiat money. The whole situation is beyond absurd. The
west used the steroids of easy credit to produce GDP growth, but Russia is stifling its GDP growth through some monetarist voodoo policies.
Russia always imports western ideas and then f*cks them up. Nobody in the west is following the monetarist dogma when it counts.
Monetarism is invoked to justify foisting austerity on countries like Greece. It is the QE happy USA that needs austerity.

sepheronx wrote:

ahmedfire wrote:New BRICS bank ,Russian SWIFT , trade-exhange with ruble currency with other many countries..etc, thats how you catch U.S balls.

Did EEU/Russia sign a free trade deal with Egypt yet? Cause that will be the next smartest move as Egyptian goods will do well in Russia and it seems Egypt is interested in both military and civil goods from Russia. Both countries need to work closer, same with Venezuela and the likes.

Yes
Egypt to join Russia-led Eurasian free trade zone
link

Guys, I like this forum but... would you be kind enough and create a separate thread for discussing your political BS? This is getting boring, seing it in every thread that isn't strictly about equipment.

I noticed that even after moody's downgrade, it barely effected the value of Rub and Russias stock market.

Financial War: US Wants to Trigger Wave of Russian Bankruptcies

Austin wrote:Financial War: US Wants to Trigger Wave of Russian Bankruptcies

Whoever wrote that didnt think things through. If the debt is heald by western institutions and these Russian companies default, then the western institutions will lose hundreds of billions, which would spiral the sector out of control. As well, even if the companies claim bankruptcy, what then? Who will waltz in and strip it of its assets? Instead, it will either function as normal or be purchased by someone else at kopeks.

Very poorly thought out article. And it seems the western stooges are running out of options.

Very interesting read it in detail

The Ministry of Finance will reduce in 2015 1.07 trillion rubles costs

http://tass.ru/ekonomika/1796116

Austin wrote:Very interesting read it in detail

The Ministry of Finance will reduce in 2015 1.07 trillion rubles costs

http://tass.ru/ekonomika/1796116

Thanks for the link.

They (Russians) are very stringent, as well, are always worried about reserve funds. This may be due to Russia's history of running out of "Money". Hopefully, they will solve the issue of credit by simply going their own QE route and reduce the interest rates. But yes, if they start privatization of many unimportant companies (none strategic), they can make a huge amounts of money for their budget/reserves. Cant blame them but at the same time, being stringent can cause damage to the economy, as long as the cutbacks are in areas where the system is heavily overbloated. Reducing wages and reducing investments in organizations/infrastructure causes more harm to the economy than not. Hence why China proves that investing in infrastructure and such brings in a lot of money.

Problem with the auto industry is it goes through periods of ups and downs, and it is mostly to do with over production, produce more than they can sell, but then charge more than what average person can afford. The other issue is that with interest rates being as high as they are, many are not interested in purchasing as it is just too expensive to obtain the auto loan. Maybe instead of the CBR in control, maybe they should let auto dealers/companies get in charge of loans. That is what we have here in Canada.

But Ford as example has failed in countries like Australia (Ford manufacturer was the last of the auto manufacturers in Australia and famous because of Mad Max movie, and now that is gone) and same as the one in Brazil is gone too. This is just as an example. They have hurt in terms of this but wont leave the market as the Russian market is not only large, but adjustable and has access to the CIS countries and eastern Europe, especially once the silk road railway opens up. We in Canada are facing a semi automaker crisis as well, where we are having trouble just trying to keep the same amount of workers and trying to keep production going, as it is much cheaper to operate in both US and Mexico compared to Canada.

It appears that the car recycling program in Russia is what has helped a huge portion of the auto sales, and it also seems that major complaint is about loans. It is possible that they could try to aim for programs like 0% interest for X amount of months or whatever like they have here, and that alone gets people keep buying vehicles. Or at least more affordable loans. Also, price of cars is the other issue, and as mentioned in one of the earlier links I posted, the ones that will do well are the makers who have also components made in Russia, and thus costs greatly drop and thus, they can keep the same or even reduce prices because of this. So in the future, we may see the foreign automakers open up a parts plant in Russia or start contracting out companies within the country for it. I read something like 50% of most auto components are made in Russia. So that means that a huge portion is imported and this is where the problems exist. Bypassing a lot of these issues is technically Sollers as Sollers makes all types of vehicles and could probably source the parts (similar for all existing models) to local plants per request of the main manufacturers. For instance, Volkswagen has opened up a plant for the production of engines in Russia. There are also apparently high auto taxes in Russia, so reducing these taxes would also help.

The automarket is one that is very hard to rely on. Example is Detroit. That city was the autocenter of North America, now look at it. It is good to have automakers and what not, but relying on them as a huge portion of your manufacturing and export/domestic demand is dangerous. Iran is a large automaker but they only have a few automaker companies and even fewer foreign entity makers in their country. Yet their production is up and so are their profits.

Russia to Draw Half Its Reserve Fund to Support Budget

http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-to-draw-50-billion-from-reserve-fund-to-support-budget-1425050629

MOSCOW—Russia sharply raised the amount it plans to draw from its reserve fund to support this year’s budget, as revenues fall along with oil prices and Western sanctions cut the country off from international financing.

In addition to tapping the fund—money the government put aside in the years when oil prices were high—spending by ministries and departments will be cut 10% to keep the deficit from growing too much, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Friday.

President Vladimir Putin has also cut salaries for workers in the Kremlin by 10%, Interfax news agency reported, citing presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

And in another sign of how strained relations with the U.S. and Europe over Ukraine are reverberating in the economy, Russia signaled it would consider allowing Chinese investors to take majority stakes its strategic oil and natural gas fields, reversing years of opposition.

First Deputy Finance Minister Tatiana Nesterenko said that the authorization for tapping the reserve fund—the first in six years—would have to be raised to 3.2 trillion rubles ($52.3 billion), or more than half its value. The original expectation in mid-January was for 500 billion rubles.

In the worst case, she said, the fund, which stood at 5.89 trillion rubles as of Feb. 1, could fall to around 1 trillion rubles by the end of the year.

“The current year will be challenging for the Russian economy. A sharp drop in oil prices, sanctions, all these require a serious alteration in the Russian economy, an adjustment to the new external conditions,” Mr. Siluanov told a gathering of finance officials.

Western sanctions related to the Ukraine crisis have had a visible impact on Russia, sending its economy into recession and cutting it off from international capital markets. This has limited its borrowing capacity and for the first time in recent years, the budget plan doesn’t envisage any specific amount of borrowing.

The finance ministry had long been planning to balance the budget by 2015, betting initially that prices for oil, Russia’s main export, would stay around $100 a barrel.

The new estimate reflects the government’s more conservative economic forecast for this year, which forecasts an even, lower average oil price of $50 per barrel, from $60 in the previous version, and a deeper contraction in gross domestic product.

The combination of the two will cut budget revenues sharply, forcing the government to take more money from the reserve fund to meet spending commitments. This year’s revenue will be the lowest in 15 years, Ms. Nesterenko said.

Without the use of the reserve fund, the 2015 budget deficit could reach 4.7% of gross domestic product, compared with around 1% in 2014.

Dipping into the reserve fund will also further drain Russia’s international reserves, of which the fund is a component. Reserves slipped below $365 billion for the first time since 2009 this week.

The risk of a rapid depletion of Russia’s reserves was one of the key reasons behind a decision by Moody’s Investors Service Inc. to downgrade the country’s rating to junk a week ago.

Meanwhile, as the Kremlin searches for investment in needed to develop its energy reserves, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said “there are no political obstacles” for Chinese investors.

“We are on the threshold of a serious investment breakthrough,” he said.

Russia’s oil industry needs modern technology and expertise as well as investment to develop its fields, and to extend lives of the old ones. But for years the Kremlin limited foreign participation in developing large oil and gas fields to minority stakes.

However, with the Western sanctions over Ukraine affecting Russian energy companies, the Kremlin has started to push for closer relations with Asia. Energy-hungry China has long sought a bigger role in Russia’s oil and gas production

Last year Russia signed a $400 billion deal with China to supply it with 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year from 2019. There is no significant upstream oil production so far in projects with the Chinese companies.

Ah, yes, the cold war trope of Russia's "need for advanced technology". This is pure drivel. Russia has all the
latest oil extraction technology for years already. It even bought out western oil industry services companies
back in the 2000s. But the WSJ is not interested in facts, just propaganda narratives.

We'll only know at the end of 2015 how much of the reserve fund is actually used. The figures quoted are not
guaranteed to be used. Without more budget details the 4.7% of GDP deficit figure is just WSJ nonsense. The
oil price is stable around $50 and the ruble is around 60 to the dollar. So there is no gap from oil revenues.
The real story is that the government is aiming for stimulus spending, including support for domestic industry to
substitute foreign imports. As noted already, there has been a substantial fall in "imported" car sales, this has
hit domestic automobile assembly jobs. This is obviously contributing to a loss in government revenues and
increased social assistance costs.

flamming_python wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:
By the way, some of the biggest losers are the US makers: GM (Chevrolet and Opel) and Ford
Hurting the US automakers without placing sanctions

None of which is good news to Russia though, I'm afraid.

These US automobile makers employ thousands of Russians, including many fine engineers, specialists, etc...
Their pay is typically above the Russian-average, given that their activities are largely concentrated in the richer regions of the Russian Federation; e.g. St. Petersburg and Kaluga.
They also pay large amounts of tax roubles into the federal budget.

Generally agreed.
Automotive industry is one of the industries I understand very well. So, allow me to provide some information that you might find useful in the future.

- Automotive assembly plant (like the foreign maker's plants in Russia) are just assembly plants. The assembling process of a car makes only about 20% of the total costs of making an automobile. The bulk of the costs is in the design and parts used in making the car.

- Only few foreign makers in Russia have more than 40% of the parts made in Russia. Take the General Motors plants in Russia: The Chevrolet Niva is made almost entirely of Russian parts and is designed in Russia (it is a GM-Avtovaz joint venture after all). The St. Petersburg plant built cars have less than 40% Russian content. The Avtotor plant (which is Russian owned) in Kaliningrad makes GM vehicles out of CKD (complete knock down) kits with very little Russian content.

- Now, which GM vehicles are suffering the most decline in sales?
Obviously the ones made outside Russia will be suffering the most because of the decline in the Russian currency.
Next in line will be the ones assembled of kits (the Avtotor made vehicles) with little domestic content.
Followed by the St. Petersburg produced ones which have some domestic content.
Least decline in sales will be the Chevrolet Niva who's price will be affected the least (because it has the most domestic content)

Now guess what the foreign makers are doing: planning to increase the % of Russian made parts in their Russia produced automobiles.
Here is the site where I follow the Russian automotive market news (in Russian and English): http://www.autostat.ru/

Now, another automotive news piece:
We already know that Lada (Avtovaz) has restarted operations in some European countries. I have information that they have big plans for the Middle East and elsewhere. They are well known in Egypt for example. They have just signed an agreement with a dealership in Lebanon and sales will start there this year.
The decline in the Rubble value will definitely help Russian exporters.

Very good points. The focus of most analysis of the impact of sanctions, ruble decline and oil prices has been on the negatives.
The positive effects are routinely ignored. I will not take any article claiming that Russia will have a nearly 5% GDP budget deficit
seriously. It is obvious that some retard has taken Russia's nominal GDP in dollars before the ruble devaluation and did a moronic
calculation of $50 billion divided by the new $1000 billion size of Russia's GDP. This is such patent nonsense it hurts the brain
trying to ingest it. Russia's budget is in rubles and not dollars. If you divide the GDP by two, you must divide the budget expenses
by two. The deficit is in rubles, not dollars.