Russian Economy General News: #4

sepheronx wrote:

Austin wrote:Silver Buy Should also be good , Keep a certain percentage of Gold and Silver

Wish I could buy gold atm but cannot due to debt.  But once I have that settled, I will start a semi savings fund specifically for buying gold.

Russia's international reserves as at 15 May totaled $ 362.3 billion, according to the Bank of Russia.

sepheronx wrote:So they are afraid of printing money - this is exactly what KVS was getting at. Money supply is already short. They just didnt get the memo.

There is another option - raise taxes. A flat tax rate of 14% but trying to keep a modernized medical and educational structure just doesnt work.

They are not very good at their job it seems. But I give them credit at looking to the future.

Why not stimulate the two reserves by using them, like they are intended, and then replenish it like the foreign reserves? Heck, start transfering foreign reserves to these other two, as it was proposed bringing back the foreign reserves to Russia and making use of it. looking at just cutbacks when they are barely using their reserves, and barely helping their own country out, is bad practice. During tough times, ones is to stimulate the economy through government projects like infrastructure development and what not.

They say they will have growth in 2016, so why make cutbacks for 2016 for 2018? I mean, these morons couldnt even predict how long it will take for their water to boil in a pot, so how do they predict that they will be short in reserves in 2018?

Let us remind ourselves again that the two reserves, combined, is over $150B dollars. Add in foreign reserves which should definately be used, is over $350B. How do they propose spending that much money? I can see that they dont want deficit, so using reserve funds to pay for everything else outside, is gonna cost $58B. Yes, by 2018 that would indeed flush the reserve funds, but, why are they not adding more into it already? Already they added in to foreign reserves. Transfer from foreign reserves to these domestic reserve funds.

They are doing what Kudrin was doing, and he was terrible as an economics minister - sitting on money and not actually using it.

Production of other banned food items lagged behind cheese but still saw steep increases. Meat production in the first four months of the year was up 13.5 percent to 680,000 tons, chicken rose 12.7 percent to 1.4 million tons and fish gained 6 percent to hit 1.4 million tons.

Austin wrote:Please make sure you keep 20-30 % of your saving in Physical Gold ( not ETF Paper Gold ) and dont keep Physical Gold In Bank else they will confiscate it.

In the coming crisis and post it Gold will play a major role.

Austin wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

Austin wrote:Silver Buy Should also be good , Keep a certain percentage of Gold and Silver

Wish I could buy gold atm but cannot due to debt.  But once I have that settled, I will start a semi savings fund specifically for buying gold.

Yes please do even if you are in debt , put atleast 10 % of your savings in buying Gold ( 999 purity )  and keep it with you , it would do well in the time of crisis

The big “buzz” over the weekend in the precious metals community was about the enormous short position in paper gold and silver taken by the bullion banks per the weekly COT report, published by the CFTC. The short position taken on by the big banks blew out by 54,832 contracts, which is the biggest one-week increase in history.  This translates into 159 tonnes of paper gold.

Ostensibly this was done ahead of today’s June Comex gold futures options expiration, a time when the banks attack the price of gold using paper contracts and use the hedge fund stop-loss selling to cover their shorts and book easy profits.

Dave Kranzler and I have shown on numerous occasions that the bullion banks and the Federal Reserve make profits and protect the dollar by suppressing the prices of gold and silver. They do this by illegally selling huge numbers of uncovered shorts in the futures market. This illegal operation is supported by the so-called “regulatory authorities” who steadfastly refuse to intervene...It has just happened again.

Viktor wrote:Nice  

no need for GMO eggs from GMO chickens or GMO poultry

Rosselkhoznadzor has banned the import of poultry and eggs from the United States

The December depositors’ panic that resulted in about $6 billion withdrawal was provoked to destabilize the financial situation in the bank and the whole country, says Herman Gref, chairman and CEO of Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank.

“Unfortunately, we could not avoid the panic. You saw what happened. But I can only say this: first, the attack was coordinated, thousands of sms-messages were sent in each region, including a large number of mailings done from foreign websites,” Grefsaid in an interview to Vedomosti published Wednesday, commenting on the biggest withdrawal of funds in Russian history.

“The target was to destabilize the country's largest bank and financial situation in the country,” he added.

Gref refused to give exact figures, but said that even though 300 billion rubles (about US$6 billion) is not a precise number, it is close to the total sum that citizens withdrew on December 18.

The outflow was historical, we have never seen anything like that happen, said Gref.

An investigation into Sberbank’s security service is in progress and has already paid dividends.

“I would not like to disclose the results. But we do have specific sites and IP-addresses these mailings were sent from, we even know who these addresses belong to. Not all of them are within our reach. But there is no doubt it was a well-planned provocation,” said Gref.

The biggest bank’s withdrawal in Russian history took place two days after December 16, so-called Black Tuesday, when the ruble hit a record low against hard currencies, trading 99.5 against the euro, and at 79 to the US dollar that day.

A drop in oil prices and US-led sanctions pushed ruble to a 55 percent fall against dollar in 2014.

MOSCOW, May 28. /TASS/. The volume of Russia's Reserve fund at the end of 2015 will amount to 2 trillion rubles ($38.28 bln), the official Twitter account of the Finance Ministry press service said Thursday, citing Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

"The volume of the Reserve fund at the end of the year will amount to 2 trillion rubles ($38.28 bln). We will try to minimize spending, saving the reserves for the next years," Siluanov said.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, at a meeting with representatives of the international rating agency Fitch announced that it anticipates a reduction of the reserve fund by the end of 2015 to 2 trillion rubles. He also noted the growth of RUSSIA'S budget in April-May to 4%. "The level of the contingency fund at the end of the year will reach 2 trillion rubles, will try to minimize the spending of reserves, saving them for the following years," the Minister quoted on the official page of the Ministry of Finance on Twitter.

Commenting on the performance of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) for investment projects, the Minister said that the Government will approach this very conservatively. May 1, 2015 at the level of the contingency fund amounted to 3.950 trillion roubles on 1 January it stood at 4.950 trillion rubles. The Finance Ministry will transfer in October 1, 2015 Fund 402 billion roubles. oil and gas revenue for 2014, the Ministry earlier reported that in 2015, it is planned to use the contingency fund of about 3 trillion roubles, part of these funds-500 billion rubles. -already used to finance budget expenditures this year.

At the beginning of the next battle for the budget Finance Ministry is looking for ways to limit requests lobbyists. Following the request of President cut spending in the 2016-2017 biennium. by 5% in real terms, it will be difficult because of resistance from other ministries, the Ministry of Finance acknowledge. Each mikrodeystvie runs into opposition, said an employee of the ministry. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance chose a different way to automatically lower the expenditure ceiling.

The Ministry of Finance will offer a new interpretation of the budget rules, said Minister Anton Siluanov: clean it from the effect of devaluation. Correct the rule and not have to change the law, it is only necessary to interpret it correctly, Siluanov said after the meeting with the President on the budget.

According to the rule the costs should be calculated on the basis of the base price of oil - an average over several years - plus up to 1% of GDP. The purpose of the rules was to limit expenditure growth in the fat years and create a safety cushion the fall of commodity prices. But the right to play against the devaluation amid falling oil prices. According to calculations of the Ministry of Finance (is in "Vedomosti"), the basic price in 2016 is significantly higher than the forecast of Economic Development - $ 87 versus $ 60 (see. Table). A budget expenditures, calculated according to the current rule - nearly 1.5 trillion rubles. Even higher is incorporated in the existing law.



The idea of ​​the Ministry of Finance - the base price of the dollar does not multiply in the Ministry of Economic Development forecasted exchange rate and at the rate that would have been at a base price, explained yesterday Siluanov. For example, in 2016, the base price of the budgetary rule - $ 87 per barrel, while the price of a dollar would be worth about 40 rubles., Not 56.8 rubles., As provided by macro forecasts, estimates Siluanov. The issue of applying the rule under discussion, he said.

All options can be considered, but the government declined to an adjustment rule explains a senior government official. A new interpretation to avoid the "hump expenses" - strong growth in 2016, and then collapse, said a Finance Ministry official. Their ceiling in 2015 will fall to 15.1 trillion rubles., While current expenditure rule would have been significantly higher.

There are two ways to cut costs, says a federal official: adjustment of regulations and a reduction of 5%. The second option calls Siluanov tough. A new interpretation of the rules makes it possible to reduce costs in 2016 (even more than in the form of reducing the costs of 5%), but 2017 is not so constrains them, while reducing the base price starts to weaken and the ruble pegged to it. In 2018, with the base price of a barrel of oil at $ 58 dollar will cost 62 rubles., While the Ministry of Economic Development forecast - 53.2 rubles. Therefore, the marginal costs are higher than under the current interpretation of the rules. The goal of the Ministry of Finance - is not automatically possible to cut costs and avoid volatility - surge and then slump, said his spokesman. Adjustment rules according Siluanova allow the Finance Ministry to achieve the goal: the federal budget deficit in 2016 should not be higher than 2.4% of GDP in 2018 is possible deficit budget.

Among the options to reduce the cost of the least harmful to the economy Siluanov named revision of the indexation of social obligations, which under the current legislation should be indexed either on actual or on forecast inflation. Transfer to Pension Fund due to the indexation of pensions and payments Inflation will need to increase by 1.1 trillion rubles. in 2016, to 1.2 trillion - in 2017 and 1.7 trillion rubles. - In 2018. Social spending will squeeze other costs, says Siluanov. Among the ways to avoid it - linking the indexation of pensions to increased revenues FIU (it already is in the legislation, but can not be lower than inflation), told "Vedomosti" Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin. But he did not say exactly how the Finance Ministry proposes to solve the problem legally.

The current rule has shown to be ineffective, the director of the Centre for the Development of the Higher School of Economics Natalya Akindinova: use rate does not correspond to the macroeconomic situation. Treatment of the Ministry of Finance is adequate to the economic situation, I'm sure Akindinova, but expect the base rate is necessary not only for the price of oil, have to prepare another macroeconomic forecast.