Russian Economy General News: #6

Man whose evidence BBC used to suggest Putin corrupt found guilty of lying to UK High Court:

'Kremlin's Banker' and lover of Alexandra Tolstoy faces prison sentence

...Yet another Liberasthole propped up by the West turns out to be a crook after alll....

https://twitter.com/intlspectator/status/708767086705643520

Personal income tax rate

Japan: 51%
France: 50.3%
Germany: 47.5%
UK: 45%
China: 45%
US: 39.6%
Turkey: 35%
India: 34%
Russia: 13%
Saudi: 0%

http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/02/which-countries-have-the-best-work-life-balance?utm_content=buffere8447&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

A bit of topic, but aparently some guy found a crap ton of gold in the forest and got it confiscated, wanted to ask, doesn't Russia have some kinda finders keepers law somewhere??

Gold Fever Victim: Man Stumbles Upon a Gold Cache in Russian Forest

http://sputniknews.com/art_living/20160315/1036337978/russia-gold-treasure-sentence.html

AlfaT8 wrote:A bit of topic, but aparently some guy found a crap ton of gold in the forest and got it confiscated, wanted to ask, doesn't Russia have some kinda finders keepers law somewhere??

Gold Fever Victim: Man Stumbles Upon a Gold Cache in Russian Forest

http://sputniknews.com/art_living/20160315/1036337978/russia-gold-treasure-sentence.html

There probably is no law on this so the state or officials, naturally, interpreted the situation in its own favour. We have this shit
in Canada as well even when there is a more established legal infrastructure. As an example consider the moving expenses
for tax purposes. If you moved out of your parents basement into a house you can't claim anything but people who moved
from one house to another can. Zero fairness and rationality. But the average prople is not going to sue the government
for an obvious abuse of power.

Proved oil reserves in Russia can only last for 28 years

http://tass.ru/ekonomika/2747036

Austin wrote:Proved oil reserves in Russia can only last for 28 years

http://tass.ru/ekonomika/2747036

Nothing more than fear porn, and peak oil fear-mongering has been a tool to artificially drive gas prices up for decades now. Let's also bring up the fact that there is more major oil/gas producers than there has ever been. Countries that have been historically oil/gas dependent are set to be gas suppliers (Egypt, Israel).

The real fear about hydracarbons is not undersupply nor oversupply, but lack of demand due to the failure of globalization
(aka lack of economic independence) due to the severe global recession-depression, specifically emanating from the European Union and it's persistence on maintaining harsh austerity measures...and thanks to globalization the EU is going down the drain and is dragging the whole world economy down with them!

Austin wrote:Proved oil reserves in Russia can only last for 28 years

http://tass.ru/ekonomika/2747036

If it gets Russia to deploy the BN-1200 reactors faster then this sort of "fear porn" is useful.

But actually:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bazhenov_Formation

As I posted in another thread, 51% of US oil production is from non-conventional deposits. And it has been the production
from non-conventional reservoirs that has boosted US production over the last 10 years. Russia has not even touched its
non-conventional deposits yet.

Russian Central Bank updates its GDP predictions. Prediction is in line with a slow but steady worsening of the GDP predictions which we've been seeing for a while.

CB revises future GDP estimates lower

It's worth noting that:

"The new forecasts were based on the central bank's base case in which the Urals crude price averages $30 a barrel in 2016, $35 in 2017 and $40 in 2018."

I think these estimates are very low and do not agree with them.

A Different Voice wrote:Russian Central Bank updates its GDP predictions. Prediction is in line with a slow but steady worsening of the GDP predictions which we've been seeing for a while.

CB revises future GDP estimates lower

It's worth noting that:

"The new forecasts were based on the central bank's base case in which the Urals crude price averages $30 a barrel in 2016, $35 in 2017 and $40 in 2018."

I think these estimates are very low and do not agree with them.

Their predictions were a bit higher than before last year but the results were somewhat less.

Brent crude has gone up to over $41 a barrel. If Russia sets up the Urals crude trade in the market, it will mark a major return for Russia. You don't have to agree with them, but then again, your previous posts give an indication that you want the worst to happen for Russia. Surprisingly, it hasn't. Russia's reorientation of the economy will also take more effect this year and I think the drop will be less then what is being predicted cause all predictions comes from current trends and not the adjustments that happen later.

Russia's international reserves for the week increased by $ 2.1 billion to $ 381.1 billion - CB

sepheronx wrote:Russia's international reserves for the week increased by $ 2.1 billion to $ 381.1 billion - CB

Must be some sort of paradox.

The only reason why anyone cares about these reserves is because of NATzO propaganda about how Russia is doomed without them.
As if the whole of Russia's economy is maintained by these reserves and not the actual production and consumption in the real world
undertaken by millions of Russian consumers and thousands of Russian companies.  

If the reserves were set to zero tomorrow, Russia's economy would not disappear.   The forex rate of the ruble would likely crash, but the
recent drop demonstrates that the late 2014, early 2015 inflation shock will not repeat.   Frankly, there is no point having high reserves
since they are just a confidence building measure for foreign financial interests.   Since these interests reside mostly in NATzO, Russia should
give a rat's ass about them.   Defaulting on any outstanding debt would be OK too, since according the the NATzO based credit ratings
agencies Russia is in fact already in default since it "obviously" has no ability to pay interest on its $60 billion sovereign foreign debt

kvs wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Russia's international reserves for the week increased by $ 2.1 billion to $ 381.1 billion - CB

Must be some sort of paradox.

The only reason why anyone cares about these reserves is because of NATzO propaganda about how Russia is doomed without them.
As if the whole of Russia's economy is maintained by these reserves and not the actual production and consumption in the real world
undertaken by millions of Russian consumers and thousands of Russian companies.  

If the reserves were set to zero tomorrow, Russia's economy would not disappear.   The forex rate of the ruble would likely crash, but the
recent drop demonstrates that the late 2014, early 2015 inflation shock will not repeat.   Frankly, there is no point having high reserves
since they are just a confidence building measure for foreign financial interests.   Since these interests reside mostly in NATzO, Russia should
give a rat's ass about them.   Defaulting on any outstanding debt would be OK too, since according the the NATzO based credit ratings
agencies Russia is in fact already in default since it "obviously" has no ability to pay interest on its $60 billion sovereign foreign debt

True but whatever, the money at least is held and can be used later if need be. Currently, their program for economic development hasn't been 100% met not because of lack of funds, but due to beaurocracy and others not doing their jobs. I believe this was mentioned at an economic forum Putin attended and stated. But for the most part, their economic development plan is being mostly met and results should be seen later in the year or two. The major part is purely the import substitution market, as we are already witnessing the revival of various industries in Russia and growth in export and business profits (last year was 49%, which is huge). Industrial production on trucks and other large vehicles is up and IT increased sales to a total of $7 billion last year. Agriculture is on the rise and export of heavy equipment that they had developed for years but never had interest from third parties to purchase from abroad, are now purchasing. Tooling industry is also growing with various industries already stating that moving production to Russia will benefit their profits. Brands that were snuffed out of the market by Bosch and others, is making a comeback. Textiles are also on the rise due to the high demand for clothing. China is becoming too expensive now too.

All of these little things will definitely start to show further benefits in the whole GDP scheme. But right now, the GDP scheme is a huge joke, as it takes investments from outside as well as debt into account, which Russia's debt has dropped and average debt of people has dropped significantly, shows that there is a major drop in the Russian market. I have pointed this out before, but no one seems to care and just keep spewing typical crap.

kvs wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Russia's international reserves for the week increased by $ 2.1 billion to $ 381.1 billion - CB

Must be some sort of paradox.

The only reason why anyone cares about these reserves is because of NATzO propaganda about how Russia is doomed without them.
As if the whole of Russia's economy is maintained by these reserves and not the actual production and consumption in the real world
undertaken by millions of Russian consumers and thousands of Russian companies.  

If the reserves were set to zero tomorrow, Russia's economy would not disappear.   The forex rate of the ruble would likely crash, but the
recent drop demonstrates that the late 2014, early 2015 inflation shock will not repeat.   Frankly, there is no point having high reserves
since they are just a confidence building measure for foreign financial interests.   Since these interests reside mostly in NATzO, Russia should
give a rat's ass about them.   Defaulting on any outstanding debt would be OK too, since according the the NATzO based credit ratings
agencies Russia is in fact already in default since it "obviously" has no ability to pay interest on its $60 billion sovereign foreign debt

They should simply use these fiat money to buy as much gold as they can , use 50% of money earned every year to buy gold.

I am not sure why CBR is not aggressive in buying gold , Russia should aim for gold reserveses at 4000-5000 tons in next 5 years

Russian Industrial Production grows for first time in 13 months.

http://www.rbc.ru/economics/17/03/2016/56eab5ee9a79472ab03563e7

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Most important article on Russian economy you can read. The short; govt bailouts have flooded the system with rubles and dollars essentially creating monetary loosening regardless of CB


Putin's $50 Billion Oil Cache Gives Russia Luxury to Ignore ECB

I hope to be wrong in my view but I believe that it was possible to used such fund in different way, maybe supporting some specific industry where for sure Russia has a potential competitive advantage. Such policy face 2 problems: 1 risk to increase again inflation, 2 the problem of appropriability of this money flux.

Austin wrote:

kvs wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Russia's international reserves for the week increased by $ 2.1 billion to $ 381.1 billion - CB

Must be some sort of paradox.

The only reason why anyone cares about these reserves is because of NATzO propaganda about how Russia is doomed without them.
As if the whole of Russia's economy is maintained by these reserves and not the actual production and consumption in the real world
undertaken by millions of Russian consumers and thousands of Russian companies.  

If the reserves were set to zero tomorrow, Russia's economy would not disappear.   The forex rate of the ruble would likely crash, but the
recent drop demonstrates that the late 2014, early 2015 inflation shock will not repeat.   Frankly, there is no point having high reserves
since they are just a confidence building measure for foreign financial interests.   Since these interests reside mostly in NATzO, Russia should
give a rat's ass about them.   Defaulting on any outstanding debt would be OK too, since according the the NATzO based credit ratings
agencies Russia is in fact already in default since it "obviously" has no ability to pay interest on its $60 billion sovereign foreign debt

They should simply use these fiat money to buy as much gold as they can , use 50% of money earned every year to buy gold.

I am not sure why CBR is not aggressive in buying gold , Russia should aim for gold reserveses at 4000-5000 tons in next 5 years

CBR is buying real gold from domestic gold mines and not gold plated wolfram from western markets.

Speaking of gold....

The gold reserves of Russia for February 2016 increased by 9.3 tons and reached 1446 tons

A country like Russia with its economic size and independence needs 4000-5000T Gold

Austin wrote:A country like Russia with its economic size and independence needs 4000-5000T Gold

Gold is a myth. People love to put down fiat currency as somehow being "worthless" but it is nothing more than
an exchange medium which allows the real economy (consisting of millions of people doing things and expending
energy and resources in the process) to function better. There is no point having the physical money include
some arbitrary extra worth, like gold, which has nothing to do with its function as an exchange medium. Back
in the good old days centuries ago economies were almost non-existent and gold served as a value store outside
of any exchange medium function it would have. In modern advanced economies this "safe haven" is no longer needed.

And it is not possible to secure the GDP in gold reserve terms so there is no meaning in accumulating vast amounts.
When people go on about Russia needing reserves it points to their belief that Russia does not have a developed,
functional economy. They believe, one way or another, that Russia needs a confidence prop. This is BS since
Russia's economy is weathering various severe exogenous shocks rather well. Russia is free to build up its gold
reserves for the long term at any pace it wants.

kvs wrote:Gold is a myth.

Gold is Real Wealth .....bring a lot of dicipline in the economy compared to never ending printing of Fiat Currency

Exter's Inverted Pyramid

Moody's and S&P are leaving Russia.

Vladimir Putin Starts His Own Ratings Firm

Instead of mentioning Russia its Putin.

Austin wrote:

kvs wrote:Gold is a myth.

Gold is Real Wealth .....bring a lot of dicipline in the economy compared to never ending printing of Fiat Currency

Exter's Inverted Pyramid

This picture proves exactly zero. You missed my point: it is the real economy that is the source of wealth.
Not precious metals, or gems, or fiat money. But you are not the only one who misses this. The real, physical
economy underpins value of all securities in the financial market. There has to be confidence that loans will be
paid off. The sum of all loans cannot be guaranteed by gold reserves. There is no point in issuing debt if
every dollar of it is backed by gold. The purpose of debt is to enable essential financial transactions (e.g. daily
business operations) that would be dead on arrival if "real money" like gold would have to be obtained first.
Decoupling gold from the dollar or any other money system reflects that fact that economies have grown enormously
and are dependent of fast financial transactions which fiat money and debt can achieve very well.

A critical element here is that the physical economy depends on the psychology of humans. If those humans are
hoodwinked into thinking their economy is worthless and that only gold will secure their future, then severe damage
is done to the actual economy. NATzO is waging psychological warfare for a reason, it can achieve both economic
damage and political instability by fooling the idiot masses. The masses as always composed of mostly idiots, around the
world, who can't be bothered to research important subjects and just swallow whatever the mass media or their friends
feeds them. If most people actually functioned autonomously on the intellectual level, we would be living in a vastly
different and much better world.

The hysteria around Russia's reserves is psychological warfare.

That is wrong physical wealth assures actual wealth as a back up. Why would the US horde gold that does not even belong to the US like the german gold or the stolen lybian, iraqi and ukrainian gold in the Federal Reserve Bank which is the migthiest private bank on this planet?

Fiat money does not have any weight nor does financial market be dogmatic. Economic crisises have been artificially created since the start of the time of global economy. The FED has started economic crisis to assure some banks bankrupcy after people have heared a bank will shut down everyone went there and tried to get their money and the FED has destroyed the bank and consumed it. There you have your real financial market controlled by psychopaths. It is indeed true that power lies where people believe power lies, but it is important to understand who has the power and by what means can you lumber down that peoples power to manipulate market. That is what russia (BRICS) does and assures a fair market by concentrating gold. I might not be an expert on economy but such things are rather easy to understand that Gold, is a manifested wealth, not only everyones Joe believes it, it actually is a worthful material, paper money is not. Debts from printing money rise, the amount of money does not, debts outweight paper money or fiat ZeroOneZero money.

Werewolf wrote:That is wrong physical wealth assures actual wealth as a back up. Why would the US horde gold that does not even belong to the US like the german gold or the stolen lybian, iraqi and ukrainian gold in the Federal Reserve Bank which is the migthiest private bank on this planet?

Fiat money does not have any weight nor does financial market be dogmatic. Economic crisises have been artificially created since the start of the time of global economy. The FED has started economic crisis to assure some banks bankrupcy after people have heared a bank will shut down everyone went there and tried to get their money and the FED has destroyed the bank and consumed it. There you have your real financial market controlled by psychopaths. It is indeed true that power lies where people believe power lies, but it is important to understand who has the power and by what means can you lumber down that peoples power to manipulate market. That is what russia (BRICS) does and assures a fair market by concentrating gold. I might not be an expert on economy but such things are rather easy to understand that Gold, is a manifested wealth, not only everyones Joe believes it, it actually is a worthful material, paper money is not. Debts from printing money rise, the amount of money does not, debts outweight paper money or fiat ZeroOneZero money.

How can $300 billion or even $1 trillion in gold assure Russia of anything? This gold cannot physically buy its economy. It
just acts a silly confidence building measure. It is physically impossible for gold to be the basis of economic wealth since
economies are vastly larger (in real terms) than any tonnage of gold available in a given country.

Gold backed currency is a relic of the pre-industrial past. You say I am wrong but offer zero counter arguments. I already
stated that fiat money has no intrinsic worth. Idiots who want to shove it into their mattresses and think they have a
treasure trove should not be dictating economic and financial policy of countries with complex economies. Uncle Scam doesn't
use gold in Fort Knox to do diddley squat. Uncle Scam uses bags of fiat money and that is the source of his power. Nobody
with a clue would say that the confidence in the US dollar is based on US gold in Fort Knox.

By far, the biggest issue for Russia is the monetarist scum still infesting the CBR and Ministry of Finance. Their retarded high
interest rate policy is stifling Russia's economy. Daily borrowing (taking out and repaying of loans) is vital for economic
activity. Digging for gold isn't.

The faulty thing in your logic is you think not in long terms. The gold assures economical power and not for you or countries but elites. The plans are made for centuries not for this few years or few decades. They horde the gold for the long term future, same way they are slowly but constantly shaping the world to a slave industry where people get literally slaves that ow everything to banks and not the otherway around. They key is in the future what they will do not what they do now with it.