Russian Economy General News: #6

I would say neither of them. Russia have 160 billion $ of foreign trade exchange surplus in 2015 and with higher price for oil and gas this surplus will grow in 2016. Surplus in trade is the money which will push Russian economy up. Increasing in agronomy and industrial production create new jobs and people earn their money with their own products. Russia already payed 30% of their debt, so the weight of debt on their economy is now lower, so more money will stay for investments. This is good school for companies that they start investing their profits in new products and production lines.

medo wrote:I would say neither of them. Russia have 160 billion $ of foreign trade exchange surplus in 2015 and with higher price for oil and gas this surplus will grow in 2016. Surplus in trade is the money which will push Russian economy up. Increasing in agronomy and industrial production create new jobs and people earn their money with their own products. Russia already payed 30% of their debt, so the weight of debt on their economy is now lower, so more money will stay for investments. This is good school for companies that they start investing their profits in new products and production lines.

There is no Russian economic crisis. There is a recession and a mild one. Unemployment is very low and essentially at boom time levels.
Real wages are still growing even if not by large amounts (+3% in 2015 instead of +15% as during some previous years in the last 10 years).
This is a case of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Let the economy work itself out of this recession. State meddling such as that proposed
will only make things worse.

Interesting how the only valid plan, to lower the extortion level interest rates which are over 11% even though the CPI is falling to 6%,
is not even mentioned. This article is propaganda.

The US become the most prosperous nation on the earth during the 19th-20th century NOT because they "surpessed wages to finance investment" , but exactly the oposite, increased wages and the demand for workforce (decreased unemployment).

High cost,scare workforce means every business compete for the workforce, they are interested in the higher efficiency, and to train/imporove the workforce.
It means higher level of living and cheap goods/services for everyone.

Supressing wages to finance investment means export driven economy imporvement, means "get dollars to move that to US bank account,and to buy US citizenship" economical model.


Currently the biggest problem in the Russian economy is the high intrest rate, and the decreasing wages/increasing unemployment.

That needs to be fixed, and after that IF the wages increasing and unemployment low the liberlaisation/increase of retirement will work like magic tourch : )

We must remember that what the media is telling us vs what is actually happening is usually different. As was noted for a long time, a lot of money is being injected into banks to increase liquidity and that in turn has lead to banks helping at providing lower than official interest rates. Other is Russian government providing subsidies to companies in terms of help in dealing with high interest rates. But essentially, lowering them will do wonders.

There is of course potential issues that even Putin mentioned regarding about government authorities and how they are handling the small and medium businesses (mostly just small) in terms of audits, bribery, lobbying, etc and that needs to be put to a stop. I would wager more freedom for small business owners is ideal. First option is a total joke and is going back to a export reliant economy at the expense of their own people, and that will make Russia less stable and more reliant on exports. I read the kommersant article and it made little to no sense. I have a feeling RBTH read the same one and just went with whatever google translate stated.

As well, these economic meetings are massive and are attended by hundreds. So these wouldn't be the only things proposed but of course, certain people get media coverage - Glazyev, Kudrin (why?) and the current idiots in the government economic sector. But guaranteed many other officials from other parties and groups are present and giving ideas. Kudrin is now part of an organization that the government takes some ideas and may use them, but in reality, he has no authority what so ever. The media, Russian and foreign, still like to use him. But what is more sad about all of this, is that what he has proposed makes more sense than what Ministry of Industry said and Glazyev has said. But as KVS said, none of them mentioned about reducing interest rates. But what Kudrin stated is that he wants the businesses to re-invest their money back into increasing production and other such activities as using their own funds will be cheaper than obtaining loans - no rates or debt. And he is correct on that. Kinda saddens me that I am now agreeing with him, but then again, I think he was neutered in order to get some kind of position (as one has noticed, he isn't all gung ho anymore). But the talk of reliance over natural resources is just garbage talk as it has been proven wrong already multiple of times. But I think it is still used as an excuse in order to push the idea of making oil account for less than 10% of GDP, which they are aiming for.

There are lots of options and the media is trying to make it look like Putin "has to" choose between them. This is probably one of the many economic summits he has attended and ideas thrown around. Some of them they come to a conclusion and some of them they don't. This is no different.

Already once before it was mentioned about wage cutting and what not, and I believe Putin also said that they will not go that direction. So Plan 1 is a no no. At least the first part of it is a no no. Second part is probably being proposed. Because than that would bring Russia back to Soviet era economic style which wasn't ideal.

Sorry but businesses require a functional loan environment.  Relying on their own revenues is unrealistic and extremely limiting.
This is a case of opportunity cost.   As the business is accumulating cash to finance itself it loses market share because it cannot
retool or whatnot to respond to rapid market trends.   Affordable loans (which should be 4% in Russia even if the CPI is 6%) allow
them to respond to market forces and this ensures their revenue stream and hence their ability to pay off the loans.  

No functional banking = low or no economic development.    The reason why Russian companies borrowed abroad is because they
could get 4% loans while Russian banks, thanks to the CBR, were offering 8.5% and now offer over 11% loans.   The Russian banking
system is broken without realistic loan rates.   It may be true that there is some sort of shadow activity where the "real" loan rates
are lower.   But this is not efficient and is in the same pool of shit as central planning.   Who decides which business gets a break?
The market should decide and Russia needs market loan rates.   The CBR is forcing the 11% rate on the market and grossly distorting
it.  I bet if there was no CBR, the existing banks would offer much lower rates (around 6%) because they would have to compete
for business.   For banks loans are assets and not liabilities and no f*cking journalist seems to know this.

BTW, there is a critical feedback between interest rates and the CPI and it isn't the one that everyone has heard about.
It is actually possible for high interest rates to increase the CPI.  People have only heard about how high interest rates
suppress inflation.   That is only true in a high inflation environment where price increases trigger a cascade of more price
increases.   The response of the Russian CPI to the late 2014 ruble devaluation proves that Russia is not in such a high
inflation regime.   The massive inflation spike was super-damped so that by March of 2015 the weekly inflation rate was
back to March of 2014 levels.  That is, the inflation surge died rapidly.   If Russia was in a high inflation regime, then the
initial spike would have been self-propagating and it would have taken many years for the inflation to settle down.
An 11% extortion level interest rate forces businesses into cash accumulation mode, which forces them to increase prices.
Even if they are competing for market share, it is every business that is being subjected to this stress so they will respond
collectively even if they do not collude.  

The hive of 5th column liberast monetarists infesting the CBR and the Ministry of Finance needs to be destroyed.   And I
am not advocating printing money or setting the interest rate to 0%.   However, it is obvious even from a fiscal conservative
perspective that the CBR rate should be at most 6%.   But it could be 4% since Russia is in a distorted market regime thanks
to excessive CBR rates in the first place.   So the CPI of 6% is in all likelihood excessive due to the CBR.   Also, as I have
posted before the CBR definition of the CPI is broken.   It counts transition from Soviet prices to market prices as inflation.
This is utter rubbish.   Inflation is the growth of prices in an equilibrated market regime.   Structural adjustments are not
inflation.   And it is a fact that even after 25 years that Russia still has big chunks of the economy that have not reached
market pricing.   This would be the military industrial complex and extends into aircraft, space, ship and other construction
industries.  For example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoUYwKk4gNc

the price of the high performance, very low fuel consumption turbocharged diesel in the above piece is four times lower
than imports.   This is obviously not simply the result of the ruble devaluation.   If western prices are market prices, then Russian
prices should be similar by now.  But after 25 years they still are not.

As I mentioned above, Russian banks as well as other capitals have bypassed CBR in terms of interest rates. That doesn't mean everyone gets the lower rates though, but seems to be guided to specific industries.

I agree though, and if one reads enough on Russian news sites regarding economics, many major banks and other groups have been actually picking CBR really hard telling them they need to lower interest rates to spur growth. So there is a lot of pressure going on at CBR.

Here is some news:
Russian Central Bank approves guidelines of market development until 2018

CBR seems to be pretty much independent from President, Govt and Russian economy too Unlike fed or eu cb is not going to stimulate growth and only gives more pesimistic market outlook like there was no dependency on % rate and economy growth.


I was always wondering why Putin lets CBR and liberals to hamper economy growth? external pressure to keep liberal scum in power ? his personal beliefs (I doubt it tho)? why phoney experts type Kudrin/Chubais are still not in Magadan?

To me magic words about intl investors sound like you cannot build anything w/o money from outside...in such case you always are dependent on Fed...


But since Glazyev is one of his advisers maybe there is still hope?
If anybody is still not aware pls check his website. Pretty interesting thoughts you may find there.

http://www.glazev.ru

Here is a big move that didn't hit the mainstream news:
“Choose Russia” – The Russian system to support import substitution

Just in case the website ever gets taken down again due to whatever reason, here are alternative links:
http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&ie=UTF8&rurl=translate.google.com&tl=en&u=http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/78192/&usg=ALkJrhg1qt9u7IY_H5N6b49vDobXbLm3GA
http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&ie=UTF8&rurl=translate.google.com&tl=en&u=http://xn--80aaxridipd.xn--p1ai/v-rossii-zarabotala-sistema-podderzhki-importozameshheniya-vybiraj-rossijskoe/&usg=ALkJrhjt9YIGYiSs6OYy4GzS0fBLoda5WQ
http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&ie=UTF8&rurl=translate.google.com&tl=en&u=http://zimport.ru/news/sistema-vybiraj-rossijskoe/&usg=ALkJrhhpNPfMTKjW0yF5cZo5VgQaUlOcWg

sepheronx wrote:Here is a big move that didn't hit the mainstream news:
“Choose Russia” – The Russian system to support import substitution

very good initiative. There are 2 factors here for SME that hampering growth: financing (financing growth without banks makes other take your market before you grow effectively) and perception among Russian population. That  imported is always better ...
Govt support in massive PR campaign to promote small enterprises would be welcome IMHO.




BTW  as a Russian patriot shouldn´t you use Yandex translation as mean of import substitution      





Here  V V Putin signed import substitution in IT. I just wonder how it goes with US software corps "lobbying"  with state or large private corporations?

Best example is using M$ windows in state administration like no Linux based replacement exists...

http://zimport.ru/news/putin-importozameshhenie-v-ikt/

Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to render state support in creation and functioning of the competence center for import substitution in the field of information and communication technologies. The corresponding text is published on the website of the President.

It is necessary to determine the legal status of the centre, the powers and procedures of accounting it solutions to government agencies.

In addition it is noted that in the process of providing support should be aware of the independence of the decisions made by the centre from the subjects of entrepreneurial activity in the sphere of information and communication technologies, as well as from industry authorities.

Media: Kudrin urged Putin to ease tensions in geopolitics

http://ria.ru/politics/20160530/1440582852.html

so this scumbag is ready to give away Crimea, let bandarlog ss scum to slaughter Russian population in Donbass and put all money for investment into USD and wait for infestors? Vth column scum confirmed.



I know in Izvestia is little Pravda but this opinion is IMHO gets to the point.
http://izvestia.ru/news/613428




About Kudrin scumbag liberast approach:

Given the fact that the full inflow of the Western investments in the Russian economy is possible only with the abolition of Western sanctions against Russia, and the main condition for this is the return of the Crimea to the Ukraine, the team Kudrin, apparently, is ready to agree

+

These investors may be Russian, but they must be foreign, because the foreign investor must bring in the Russian economy the latest technology and thereby ensure its development, reaching a new technological level.

+

The Ministry of economic development offers the option of Reagan–Thatcher to provide the maximum benefits for businesses, including significantly lower wages, social standards, if necessary, with batons to disperse the protesters and in this way to ensure the inflow of investments.

+

It is not necessary to wait, when will come the long-awaited investor. He is not going to come. A quarter of a century waiting for him, and he never comes. Only immediate effective investments in high-tech production will expand the base of political support policy leadership of the country.

about Glazyev team:

Keynesian social model suggests that it is necessary not to reduce but rather to increase salaries and, moreover, to increase other public investments. Simply put, the state has to do major investment in some large objects in order to then disperse that money as life-giving water across the economy, so they "lit" and raised the economy.

It is the reaction of most successful countries in the economic crisis of 2008. China to mitigate the crisis through massive investments in road construction. As a result, China's roads have become much better, which is good for residents and the economy. These road money has not allowed the Chinese economy to collapse and played the role of a powerful workhorse.



In modern Russia it is obvious that policy must be the opposite of the recommendations of the Ministry of economic development. It is necessary stimulation primarily pension payments and a powerful investment in infrastructure.

+
Another question, how to ensure the highest level of technological development.

Today there has been two main directions. The first direction is to create opportunities for startups. Many say not only about "starcapital" of the economy, but even about the "starcapital" policy. Even banned terrorist organization ISIS, many believe a political startup. This is largely true.

I think Keynes is misudnerstood.
He wanted to increase the demand for the workforce to a level when the sallaries start to grow.

It is NOT aboutto showel money into projects, but rather than to employ the highest ammount of person as direct as possible, to have deep impact on the job market
Anything that is sort of this failure.

Like the employment programs in the US during the 30s, all of them was too small scaled to affect the whole job market. Only the secondworld war was big enought, and that left thirty years long imprint in the US economy.

Gunship, don't be stupid. You know Kudrin has no authority and no Russian politician would agree to that. And he never said giving back Crimea, but said getting foreign investors from West back. And obviously there is only one way. But Kudrin has 0 authority anyway.

Funny, what Kudrin is supporting is what put Russia into this current mess of over reliance in the west. While Kudrin looks to get easy money for growth, many get engineers. So his opinion is moot anyway.

sepheronx wrote:Gunship, don't be stupid. You know Kudrin has no authority and no Russian politician would agree to that.

Peskov today answered him Kudrin needs to give no instructions how Putin is to run politics

Other option is that Kudrin is there on purpose. The red guy like in cow and chicken, so Putin can channel bad emotions and discontent for unpopular decisions and if needed jettison him as an empty booster.  Anyway pension reform is needed as long as avg Russian family gets no less than 4 kids.



Hope that in foreseeable future  Ruble denominated auctions take place.

MOSCOW, may 30 — RIA Novosti. OOO "Gazprom export plans during the quarter to hold auction for gas supplies to Europe, told RIA Novosti CEO Elena Burmistrova.
"In the near future, Yes, probably, during the quarter, otherwise it will be too late," said Burmistrov.
Now the schedule is developed, the volumes are defined, she said.
The first auction of "Gazprom export" held in September 2015, selling more than 1.2 billion cubic meters of gas via Nord stream". The second auction was held in March of this year. It has sold 420 million cubic meters of gas delivery to the Baltic States.


РИА Новости http://ria.ru/economy/20160530/1440915495.html#ixzz4A9y5lNWG

Singular_trafo wrote:I think Keynes is misudnerstood.
He wanted to increase the demand for the workforce to a level when the sallaries start to grow.

It is NOT aboutto showel money into projects, but rather than to employ the highest ammount of person as direct as possible, to have deep impact on the job market
Anything that is sort of this failure.

Like the employment programs in the US during the 30s, all of them was too small scaled to affect the whole job market. Only the secondworld war was big enought, and that left  thirty years long imprint in the US economy.

IMHO Keynes was about the right way not Friedman. On micro level you have job in foreseeable future so can buy a home, car food etc...there is demand so more companies to deliver product invest employ...Liberals often forget that without ruthless exploitation and colonization they woild be nowhere near current level. Did liberalism helped kids in XIX century coal mines in UK? great depression started to end with public works which are ultimately investments in infrastructure to raise productivity,

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/putin-smacked-down-liberal-expert-kudrin-econ-council-meeting/ri14685

Putin gave Kudrin a smackdown.

sepheronx wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/putin-smacked-down-liberal-expert-kudrin-econ-council-meeting/ri14685

Putin gave Kudrin a smackdown.

Kudrin is barely an economist, much less a technological analyst.

AlfaT8 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/putin-smacked-down-liberal-expert-kudrin-econ-council-meeting/ri14685

Putin gave Kudrin a smackdown.

Kudrin is barely an economist, much less a technological analyst.

Pretty much. He talks a lot about technology and how far they are behind, but never mentions in what.

AlfaT8 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/putin-smacked-down-liberal-expert-kudrin-econ-council-meeting/ri14685

Putin gave Kudrin a smackdown.

Kudrin is barely an economist, much less a technological analyst.

We have basically 2 options Kdrin & co is there because
a) Putin needs them to have somebody to blame...you lads are good example: Kudrin expressed opinion like give up to IV Reich and good Putin smacked him...

or

b) there is very strong pressure both external (world financiers) and internal oligarchs/5 column. This would explain sabotage of Putin´s acts and making problems with economical independence. Some time ago if I got it right Khazin said that Putin waits untill US elections. Trump is clearly for saving US not intl fiances´ parasites...will help Putin to chop libarastas. Of course no to leae democratic agents alive behind his back.

sepheronx wrote:

AlfaT8 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/putin-smacked-down-liberal-expert-kudrin-econ-council-meeting/ri14685

Putin gave Kudrin a smackdown.

Kudrin is barely an economist, much less a technological analyst.

Pretty much. He talks a lot about technology and how far they are behind, but never mentions in what.

Maidanown Technology? like anybody sells top technologies with colonies? so why Puerto Rico is not Singapur?

PapaDragon wrote:
About Kudrin:

Putin Smacked Down Liberal 'Expert' Kudrin at an Econ Council Meeting

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/putin-smacked-down-liberal-expert-kudrin-econ-council-meeting/ri14685


Liberals are staying put so can we move on now?

Why, every post is on topic and repeating certain facts frequently is the essence of counter-propaganda.
I am quite sure the NATzO MSM is not "moving on" from its Russia bashing and repeating tired old memes.

AlfaT8 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/putin-smacked-down-liberal-expert-kudrin-econ-council-meeting/ri14685

Putin gave Kudrin a smackdown.

Kudrin is barely an economist, much less a technological analyst.

He's a scumbag peddling Uncle Scam brand of snake oil. Here is an example:

A) The iPhone is the pride of the USA and its liberast sycophants in Russia. It is a manifestation of American know how and
technological prowess.

B) The Yota phone is not manufactured in Russia so it is not Russian.

Catch the inanity. Catch the stench of liberast ideology. For those that do not know, the iPhone is not manufactured in
the USA and is manufactured in the same place the Yota phone is: in China. The Yota phone has world class features and
is engineered in Russia just as the iPhone is engineered in the USA. BTW, ignore the attempts by Yota to paint itself as
some "international company" composed of only the best "ex employees of Nokia, Microsoft, etc.". This is an attempt to
remove the taint of being Russian. No company spawned itself internationally before nationally.

Kudrin's advice is from the same cloaca as the above liberast Russia hate fest sample. He wants Russians to believe that
all the technological development in Russia requires foreigners and their money. Without this mythical foreign wellspring
of technology Russians will be stuck with clubs and arrows. Kudrin is spreading the worst kind of snake oil, the Trojan horse
flavour. It is intended to lubricate the penetration of Uncle Scam deep into Russia (and other potential victim) and screw
them over so bad that they will never recover. We already had the Yeltsin regime as an example of the good life that this
rape will bring.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

AlfaT8 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/putin-smacked-down-liberal-expert-kudrin-econ-council-meeting/ri14685

Putin gave Kudrin a smackdown.

Kudrin is barely an economist, much less a technological analyst.

We have basically 2 options Kdrin & co is there because
a) Putin needs them to have somebody to blame...you lads are good example: Kudrin expressed opinion like give up to IV Reich and good Putin smacked him...

or

b) there is very strong pressure both external (world financiers) and internal oligarchs/5 column. This would explain sabotage of Putin´s acts and making problems with economical independence. Some time ago if I got it right Khazin said that Putin waits untill US elections. Trump is clearly for saving US not intl fiances´ parasites...will help Putin to chop libarastas. Of course no to leae democratic agents alive behind his back.

I am kinda having trouble trying to decipher what you are saying but I think I got it but I have a different point of view.

First, I will base it off of this:
http://thesaker.is/kudrin-returns/

I think A is more correct but if there is a B, it is more to keep Kudrin in line, down and out of the 5th columnist hands.  As Mercouris pointed out, Kudrin never made any remarks about Crimea or having it returned.  Even Navalny himself wouldn't give back Crimea.  But what Kudrin is trying here is pushing Russia to make some amends to work with the west in hopes to obtain more investments.  But Putin threw him down on that one and I noticed no remarks since (this happened on the 25th apparently, now 5 days later, nothing).  So it is all assumed that Kudrin more or less made a remark, a snide remark and that alone made him be put into his place.  Now I think that Putin gave Kudrin the position not to keep enemies closer, but more like keep him content and working on models that could possibly be used and to also keep him away from the fifth columnists who still exist in Russia.

As some have pointed out in comments section in Russian; Russia wont, even if it folded, get any of the investments that Kudrin thinks they would get.  Development happens internally and it happens due to demand.  We are seeing actual results of it.  Kudrin, saying that Russia is technologically backwards, is only fooling himself and no one else other than people who have no clue on Russia but think that reading a piece on financial times, are so called experts.  The rest of us, who also rely on media are not experts either, but the big BUT here is that we do a lot of research.  A LOT of research.  We have access to websites and resources like sdelanounas, marchmontnews, etc to be able to see results and work out what is actually happening.  What is sad though, is that these same resources are available in Russia due to the fact they are Russian, and yet people like Kudrin still spew the same inane crap like how Russia is technologically backwards.  Yet they still produce their own microprocessors, they produce basic necessities, they produce equipment for manufacturing.  They make tools, tanks, planes, computers, radar, medicine, medicine equipment, automotive, robotics, etc etc etc.  Technically, Russia is technologically advanced.  Issue is though, Kudrin has no other arguments.  He just states the same thing he has stated for the last 11 years - oil and gas economy and technical backwardness.  Even though, we have evidence he is wrong on both those accounts, and both those accounts he claimed were a "problem" even back when he was Finance minister.  So what does that tell about him? All it states is that he really isn't the genius that everyone else made him out to be.  But simply someone hording money under a mattress - something I argued back when he was still finance minister.  He relied heavily on loans and as the saker article pointed out, private debt to foreign entities grew drastically under him, and that is a problem Russia is having to solve now.  So how does that make him a genius?  It doesn't.  He is the simple type of economics minister like that can be found in Saudi Arabia - someone that demands others do the work for them and expect that they will somehow progress.  But due to this lack of money injected into the industries and in innovation, Russia is having to do the hard work now.  But good thing is, thank the Americans and Europeans for that, nothing to do with him.

Edit: As KVS pointed out, Russia is doing the same that the Americans do in technology. Even down to the manufacturing methods. But I would wager Russia's manufacturing is pretty strong since they produce a lot of stuff, that even US is starting to import - construction materials, etc.

Here is a good article from april about Kudrin and his position:
http://johnhelmer.net/?p=15487

German foreign minister: Nobody interested in Russian economic collapse

http://tass.ru/en/world/879049

Renewed program adopted for Russian defense industry for 2016-2020 — PM

http://tass.ru/en/defense/878924