Russian Economy General News: #7

kvs wrote:

Project Canada wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Well worth the read:

Putin: Nyet to Neo-liberals, Da to National Development http://journal-neo.org/2016/08/02/putin-nyet-to-neo-liberals-da-to-national-development/

Interesting read, i hope they go ahead with the Stolypin plan and get rid of the neo-liberalist 5th column traitors.

Is there hope that the Central Bank will be nationalized?

I think there is since the monetarist dogma imported from the west in 1991 is being dropped.  It is good to see Russia
dumping a diseased ideology so quickly.  

The propaganda and historical cherry picking has been very effective.  I have never heard of Friedrich List.  His position on free trade hits
the target dead center.  Russia should have followed List's approach for the last 100 years instead of BS communism and monetarism.
Note how List realizes that nanny state policies are not a good idea:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_List

No Randian insanity and social Darwinism here.

I strongly agree; I would like to add that the Russian government and Russian economist should read Henry George and learn about the land value tax.

http://www.henrygeorge.org/rem4.htm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_George

Austin wrote:The West thought the Russian bear could be tamed. They were wrong

The revival is obviously closely correlated with the oil price as the wellbeing of the Russian economy depends on the export of oil. This brings hard dollars into the country’s treasury to help the Central Bank to maintain a healthy ratio of foreign currency on the balance sheet (or to buy more gold, see later).

What complete and utter garbage claim.

1) Russia is not a one-commodity banana republic based on oil exports, that would be Saudi Arabia. Russia's GDP depended
13.7% on oil and gas exports and the whole associated extraction industry in 2013. By definition this number is less today.

2) Russia's consolidated budget depends 24% on oil and gas associated tax revenue. And the oil price in rubles has stayed basically
stable in the face of its dollar price drop since the ruble forex slid a by a similar factor. Russia's budget revenues have not collapsed
because of the dollar oil price drop.

3) Russia does not need hard currency from oil sales. The ruble is a hard currency. The clowns writing this shit are talking like this is 1986
and Russia needs dollars to buy wheat from the west. What a f*cking joke "analysis".

4) This garbage piece sings the praises to the CBR even though the CBR is undermining Russia's economy with its insane 10.5% prime
rate in the face of current 7% inflation. The CBR should be setting the rate at 5% following standard western practice.

Official: Deals worth over $15 bln to be signed at Eastern Economic Forum

http://tass.com/economy/896681

© Yuri Smityuk/TASS

Read also
A view of Vladivostok
161 agreements to be signed at second Eastern Economic Forum — ministry

MOSCOW, August 30. /TASS/. Agreements for the total sum of more than 1 trillion rubles ($15 bln) are expected to be signed at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said on Tuesday.

"To date about 130 agreements worth about 1 trillion rubles are ready for signing, but apparently, this figure will be higher," the Kremlin official said.

"In total, 52 sessions will be held as part of the forum and, which is important to note, five cross-country business dialogues," he said.

The presidential aide noted among those who confirmed their participation in the forum are heads of 240 Russian and 57 foreign companies, including Daewoo, Panasonic, Mitsubishi, etc. In total 3,000 people form 55 countries have been registered as the forum participants, which is 1.5 times as much as at the first forum, held a year ago.

More:
http://tass.com/economy/896681

At SPIEF this year they signed deal of more than 1 trillion. So total deal worth more than 2 trillion rouble in 2016 is not something to scoff at.

Billions of dollars moved illegally from Russia in last 3 yrs – watchdog

Russia has seen 1.2 trillion rubles leave the country illegally between 2013 and 2015, according to the Accounts Chamber. This amounts to $18 billion at the current exchange rate, but $40 billion three years ago.

https://www.rt.com/business/357767-russia-capital-outflow-exodus/

I think the Russian gov should do more to address this issue and make it more harder to get money out of Russia with malicious intent. This weakness could be exploited by American 5th column agents to cause disruption and damage to Russian economy

Tokyo to allow Russians to stay on Southern Kurils if Russia gives them to Japan

New approach
NHK public television reports Abe intends to create a new ministerial position on economic relations with Russia in the cabinet and offer it to the current Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan Hiroshige Seco.

According to the report, this initiative is aimed at the development of Russian-Japanese economic relations and is taking place ahead of the upcoming meeting at the second East Economic Forum.

"Also during the forthcoming visit Prime Minister Abe will propose to hold summits in Vladivostok on annual basis," NHK reported.

http://tass.com/world/896948

Japan should forget about taking back the Kurils and the Russian gov should make it clear that there is no hope for handing them back. Japan is an American puppet and when the Kurils are given to Jap control American bases will suddenly pop out in there with thousands of missiles pointed at Russia, so Japan and the US should just fck off

Besides, giving away territories will only encourage other neighbors of Russia to make their own absurd claims, i remember when a Azeri politician suggested that Russia hand back Dagestan to Azerbaijan if it wanted to improve ties with the country

So no, Territorial concessions will only lead to more trouble especially with uncle AmeriBhllsht around guiding their pawns to bleed Russia whenever there is opportunity

Sad to see Brazil go this way , Hope Russia dont commit the mistake that Brazil did

The Brazilian Economic Collapse Reaches Unprecedented Proportions

Project Canada wrote:

Tokyo to allow Russians to stay on Southern Kurils if Russia gives them to Japan

New approach
NHK public television reports Abe intends to create a new ministerial position on economic relations with Russia in the cabinet and offer it to the current Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan Hiroshige Seco.

According to the report, this initiative is aimed at the development of Russian-Japanese economic relations and is taking place ahead of the upcoming meeting at the second East Economic Forum.

"Also during the forthcoming visit Prime Minister Abe will propose to hold summits in Vladivostok on annual basis," NHK reported.

http://tass.com/world/896948

Japan should forget about taking back the Kurils and the Russian gov should make it clear that there is no hope for handing them back. Japan is an American puppet and when the Kurils are given to Jap control American bases will suddenly pop out in there with thousands of missiles pointed at Russia, so Japan and the US should just fck off

Besides, giving away territories will only encourage other neighbors of Russia to make their own absurd claims, i remember when a Azeri politician suggested that Russia hand back Dagestan to Azerbaijan if it wanted to improve ties with the country

So no, Territorial concessions will only lead to more trouble especially with uncle AmeriBhllsht around guiding their pawns to bleed Russia whenever there is opportunity

I think Russia has made it clear multiple of times. Lavrov said back in May that they told the japs that they are the ones who gave up the Kurils for peace in 1957 and Russia won't hand it back. But it is Japan that keeps on insisting they hand it back. Russia is giving the carrot/stick treatment to them showing that they invest in Russia, it will bring lots of money to them. But Japan is stubborn for those islands. Russia knows this. They have already started working on a new base on kurils.

Japan's population will drop more so give it time. They will demand less and less over time.

Austin wrote:Sad to see Brazil go this way , Hope Russia dont commit the mistake that Brazil did

The Brazilian Economic Collapse Reaches Unprecedented Proportions

What? Are you trying to say Russia is heavily incompetent at running an economy and running bullshit heavy debts to cover money stolen by state oil company? No. Because Russia's unemployment rate is dropping, debt is staying quite low and Putin's popularity is up so no chance of impeachment. Brazil and Russia's economy are not even tied remotely or comparable. Even Russia's economy isn't hurting compared to Brazil's, but starting to see growth.

Zvezda shipyard begins mass production of multifunctional vessels

http://tass.com/defense/897139

US spreads its anti-Russian sanctions to several shipbuilding, logistics companies

http://tass.com/economy/897151

sepheronx wrote:

I think Russia has made it clear multiple of times. Lavrov said back in May that they told the japs that they are the ones who gave up the Kurils for peace in 1957 and Russia won't hand it back.  But it is Japan that keeps on insisting they hand it back.  Russia is giving the carrot/stick treatment to them showing that they invest in Russia, it will bring lots of money to them. But Japan is stubborn for those islands.  Russia knows this. They have already started working on a new base on kurils.

Japan's population will drop more so give it time. They will demand less and less over time.

Yep, Putin made it clear in a recent interview that the Kurils are not up for negotiations. I just hope it stays that way, cause Japan might wait until a Yeltsin 2.0 gets elected and then try to float the idea again, hopefully with Japan's demographic crash they wont be needing more 'living space' in the near future.

US Treasury expands Ukraine sanctions against Russia

The US Department of the Treasury said on Thursday it had expanded its sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis. The department said companies including Russian bridge-builders Mostotrest and SGM-Most, currently constructing a bridge to Crimea, had been added to the sanctions list. Multiple subsidiaries of Russian gas giant Gazprom have also come under sanctions, Reuters reports.

Japs cannot be trusted , When the moment comes they will suck up to the US.

With a debt of 250 % of GDP and growing , Japs dont really have a great future.

One good example why Stock Market over the world are so detached from economy ......Russian economy is in recession and the stock exchange MICEX is all time high

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/INDEXCF:IND

MICEX index exceeds 2,000 points first time in history
Business & Economy
September 02, 17:09 UTC+3

MOSCOW, September 2. /TASS/. The MICEX index exceeds 2,000 points for the first time in history reaching 2000.49 points on Moscow Exchange on Friday.

RTS Index also showed growth, increasing by 2% to 964 points.

Brent crude oil futures contract for November delivery on London’s ICE also rose by around 2% to $46.37 per barrel.


More:
http://tass.com/economy/897401

Alexander Mercouris is now writing on this website now  http://theduran.com/author/alexander/

Sanctions on Russia Erode Away

By Alexander Mercouris
Global Research, August 18, 2016
The Duran 18 August 2016

Ukraine’s former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk is currently touring European capitals calling on the EU to maintain its sanctions against Russia.  This is in the face of what even Yatsenyuk admits is growing opposition to sanctions in Europe and growing EU “Ukraine fatigue”.


What is being little said is that the actual effectiveness of the sanctions has already eroded significantly.
The sectoral sanctions which the EU imposed in July 2014 – the sanctions which matter – come in three groups: (1) a prohibition on the supply of sophisticated technology to the Russian oil industry, (2) limits on the sale of “dual use” technology (ie. technology that can be used in military design and development), and (3) a ban on borrowing by certain designated Russian banks and companies in European financial markets via debt instruments of a period of more than 30 days.

Of these sanctions only the third group of sanctions is important.

The halving of oil prices since mid 2014 has rendered the first group of sanctions essentially irrelevant since exploration and investment in new oil fields everywhere in the world has basically come to a stop.  The Russians can in time anyway develop analogous technologies for themselves.

The same is also certainly true of so-called “dual use” technologies covered by the second group of sanctions, which the Russians would certainly anyway want to develop for themselves.

Both the first and second groups of sanctions ultimately rest on the fallacy that Russia is a technologically primitive country.  This is a fallacy that has been repeatedly proved to be untrue but which no amount of contrary evidence ever seems able to shake.  As it is what the first and second groups of sanctions actually do is play into the hands of those in Russia who insist on the country pursuing an import substitution policy.
By contrast the third group of sanctions, the ones that limit borrowing Russian banks and companies, has made a real difference.  Not only have Russian banks and companies been unable to raise additional funding in the West but the sanctions have prevented them from rolling over their existing external debt, obliging them to pay off their debt more quickly.

In the context of reduced cash flows caused by the fall in oil prices that has undoubtedly led to investment being cut, and to greater pressure on the rouble as Russian companies have been forced to convert their rouble earnings into dollars and euros to pay foreign debt.

It is this third group of sanctions which however are now eroding away.

The Central Bank has said that after falling rapidly in 2014 and 2015 from a peak of $733 billion in July 2014 to $518 billion in January 2016, aggregate Russian external debt increased from $518 billion in January 2016 to $521 billion in July 2016.  This despite the fact that debt repayments for the whole of 2016 are in the order of $67 billion, with March being the heaviest month for repayment.

The fact that Russia’s aggregate foreign debt is now essentially stable is probably down to two factors.  Firstly, it is believed that as much as half of the total debt repayments by Russian corporates which are due in 2016 are repayments of ‘intra-group’ debts, where Russian firms borrow from closely-linked Russian owned entities registered offshore for the purpose of tax efficiency.

Such ‘debts’ obviously are not real debts at all and are not affected by the sanctions, and can be easily rolled over, and it is likely that most of them are.  However it seems that there has also been a small increase in actual borrowing by Russian companies, some of it in the form of bonds.

That this may indeed be the case, with foreign investors returning to the Russian market, is suggested by figures the Central Bank has released for Foreign Direct Investment (“FDI”) into Russia.  Before sanctions this was running as of 2014 at roughly $6 billion to $15 billion a quarter.  It then fell to zero after sanctions were imposed.  However in the second quarter of 2016 FDI was again $6 billion.

This does not mean that the effect of the sanctions has entirely ended.  However they are not as heavy a burden on the Russian economy as they once were.

The original source of this article is The Duran
Copyright © Alexander Mercouris, The Duran, 2016

Austin wrote:Alexander Mercouris is now writing on this website now  http://theduran.com/author/alexander/

Both the first and second groups of sanctions ultimately rest on the fallacy that Russia is a technologically primitive country.  This is a fallacy that has been repeatedly proved to be untrue but which no amount of contrary evidence ever seems able to shake.  As it is what the first and second groups of sanctions actually do is play into the hands of those in Russia who insist on the country pursuing an import substitution policy.

Most of NATO's perception of Russia is based on delusional fantasies and hate projection (aka guilt transfer). Russia will make NATO
eat sh*t like Napoleon and Hitler. NATO's hubris will be its undoing.

At the WEF have signed more than 200 agreements by 1.85 trillion rubles

https://ria.ru/economy/20160905/1476071172.html

"A good start has given the very opening of the forum. On the first day it was signed an agreement worth more than 1 trillion rubles. The negotiations were intense signing, go to the end of the WEF. Now we can fix them the final volume. This is of 1.85 trillion rubles of investments the Far East ", - the press service quoted words of the head of Alexander Minvostokrazvitiya Galushki.

David Stockman new book is released , Amazon link

Trumped! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin... And How to Bring It Back
https://www.amazon.com/Trumped-Nation-Brink-Ruin-Bring-ebook/dp/B01LVZU7T7/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1473346736&sr=8-1#nav-subnav

In TRUMPED! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… And How to Bring It Back, David Stockman brings us an insider-turned-iconoclast’s report on how 30 years of financial and political misrule by the Washington/Wall Street elites have brought the U.S. to the brink of ruin.

He shows that the Fed’s destructive ZIRP and QE policies have buried Flyover America in debt while clobbering it with shrinking real wages and vanishing job opportunities. At the same time, the bicoastal elites have prospered mightily from the massive inflation of financial assets in the Wall Street casino and the debt-fueled expansion of Imperial Washington’s domestic rackets and global interventions.

Stockman argues that Donald Trump’s improbable candidacy happened because Flyover America has had enough of a rigged system that benefits the few but has failed to delivery economic recovery and real prosperity at home and a safer and more stable world abroad.

Stockman’s book is no testimonial on behalf of Trump’s candidacy, and contends that much of what he advocates is wrong-headed or downright reprehensible. But it does salute him as the rallying force for Main Street political insurrection because the existing regime of Bubble Finance on Wall Street and statist aggrandizement in Washington threatens incalculable harm.

Stockman also argues that there remains a way forward. He suggests the “political outlaw” who considers himself to be the world’s greatest dealmaker would need to “make ten great deals” to bring American back from the brink. These include a Peace Deal, a Jobs Deal, a Sound Money Deal, a Super Glass-Steagall Deal, A Liberty Deal and five more.

In this trenchant, wide-ranging and unvarnished account, Stockman draws on his unique 40-year career in Washington and Wall Street. After a career as a Capitol Hill staffer, two-term member of Congress and ultimately as President Ronald Reagan’s budget director, Stockman then went to Wall Street. For two decades as an investment banker and private equity investor he had a front row seat as the nation’s financial markets mutated into today’s Bubble Finance casinos.

Looks like ex Ambassador Michael McFaul has got a full time job of Trolling Russia and its Economy

Check this twitter account

https://twitter.com/McFaul


He posted this link on his twitter feed

World-Renowned Economist Sergei Guriev on the Russian Economy: Takeaways from his Speech at the Oxford Guild

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/samuel-ramani/worldrenowned-economist-s_b_9272876.html

Austin wrote:Looks like ex Ambassador Michael McFaul has got a full time job of Trolling Russia and its Economy

Check this twitter account

https://twitter.com/McFaul


He posted this link on his twitter feed

World-Renowned Economist Sergei Guriev on the Russian Economy: Takeaways from his Speech at the Oxford Guild

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/samuel-ramani/worldrenowned-economist-s_b_9272876.html

You post this shit and expect others to rebut it? Are you trolling?

Inflation for 2016 will be 5.7%. Guriev can go and suck his NATO masters off some more. They are all living
in lala fantasy land.

I already posted how bad the 2015 "crash" was. A 3.5% GDP decline does not compare to the 8% GDP drop in 2009.
Why was 2008/9 not a "perfect storm"?

August 2016 results for Automotive sales in Russia (compared to August 2015):

From various sources, I compiled the following:

Passenger car sales are down again for the month, this time by 18%: But Lada and UAZ sales increased 4% and 3% respectively, GAZ minivan sales were down 16% though. Overall the Russian brands gained market share.

Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) sales are flat: GAZ, UAZ and Lada Largus van sales have increased slightly thus gaining market share.

Truck sales are up 20% for the month: Kamaz sales are up 35%. Ural and GAZ sales are up 49%. The Russian brands gained share over foreign ones like Mercedes, Isuzu and Iveco.

Used car sales in Russia for August increased 3.6%.



In other news:

Central bank has lowered the key interest rate from 10.5% to 10%

http://www.1prime.biz/news/_Russian_central_bank_lowers_key_rate_to_10_from_105/0/%7B5B9EC8A2-92A5-4DC1-A39C-09A9345E3398%7D.uif

kvs wrote:

Austin wrote:Looks like ex Ambassador Michael McFaul has got a full time job of Trolling Russia and its Economy

Check this twitter account

https://twitter.com/McFaul


He posted this link on his twitter feed

World-Renowned Economist Sergei Guriev on the Russian Economy: Takeaways from his Speech at the Oxford Guild

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/samuel-ramani/worldrenowned-economist-s_b_9272876.html

You post this shit and expect others to rebut it?   Are you trolling?

Inflation for 2016 will be 5.7%.  Guriev can go and suck his NATO masters off some more.   They are all living
in lala fantasy land.

I already posted how bad the 2015 "crash" was.   A 3.5% GDP decline does not compare to the 8% GDP drop in 2009.
Why was 2008/9 not a "perfect storm"?

I was just pointing out that a full time ex Russian Ambassador now got a full time job of Trolling Russia in his Tweets .....he does not even cover other issues ...... IIRC he was humiliated and told to leave

I agree with rest of your post.

Some one should show McFoul Mouth this stastics of Obama

Harvard Crushes The "Obama Recovery" Farce With 9 Simple Charts

kvs some stastics to chew on


Living Within Your Means: US Could Take a Lesson From Russia's Low National Debt

Read more: https://sputniknews.com/business/20160805/1043984343/us-russian-national-debt-comparison.html

May anybody rebunk Western's propaganda about "Russian reserve fund is running out of cash ?" I know the forum has talked about similar topic before but I still do not fully gaps the essence of the issue.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/16/news/economy/russia-cash-reserves-depleted/

higurashihougi wrote:May anybody rebunk Western's propaganda about "Russian reserve fund is running out of cash ?" I know the forum has talked about similar topic before but I still do not fully gaps the essence of the issue.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/16/news/economy/russia-cash-reserves-depleted/

Russian goods receive priority in public procurement Details

S & P raised the outlook on the credit rating of Russia

and the most important - they are rising steadily throughout 2016

Russia's international reserves reached the level of $ 400 billion