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This is going to bite Russia in the Ass eventually, count on it.
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Russia-Turkey S-400 missile deal
AlfaT8- Posts : 2488
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magnumcromagnon- Posts : 8138
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AlfaT8 wrote:This is going to bite Russia in the Ass eventually, count on it.
Weren't they saying the same thing about the intervention in Syria? What will they gain by betraying Russia? They've already have been alienated by the EU and the US (cant get any worse than a regime change military coup), their relations with GCC is at it's worst in years (Saudi-Qatari split, and Khashoggi). I don't think you really thought this out thoroughly. If they betray Russia, they'll also lose the Eurasian (Turkic) Central Asian countries, Iran, and probably China as well (likely India as too). The U.S. probably would pull strings to keep Turkish relations with South Korea, Japan, Brazil to a minimum.That's not even the worst of it, if they decide to betray Russia, nothing will stop a complete civil war from breaking out in Turkey between the Islamist's, the Secularists, and the Kurds (who make up 1/3rd of the population).
kvs
kvs- Posts : 15849
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magnumcromagnon wrote:AlfaT8 wrote:This is going to bite Russia in the Ass eventually, count on it.
Weren't they saying the same thing about the intervention in Syria? What will they gain by betraying Russia? They've already have been alienated by the EU and the US (cant get any worse than a regime change military coup), their relations with GCC is at it's worst in years (Saudi-Qatari split, and Khashoggi). I don't think you really thought this out thoroughly. If they betray Russia, they'll also lose the Eurasian (Turkic) Central Asian countries, Iran, and probably China as well (likely India as too). The U.S. probably would pull strings to keep Turkish relations with South Korea, Japan, Brazil to a minimum.That's not even the worst of it, if they decide to betray Russia, nothing will stop a complete civil war from breaking out in Turkey between the Islamist's, the Secularists, and the Kurds (who make up 1/3rd of the population).
Russia and Turkey likely have some deal over Syria. Naturally, we do not know about this.
GarryB- Posts : 40515
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This is going to bite Russia in the Ass eventually, count on it.
Their treatment of the Ukraine right up until the coup also bit them in the ass, but it was also in their interests at the time to promote good relations and help a neighbour.
Honestly if Turkey says fuck you Russia we are going to give away all your secrets to America and Europe for the S-400, then Russia has quite a few options... including tripling the cost of the gas they buy from them to fund upgrades of the S-400 to minimise the cost of the compromised technology.
But there is a good chance that Turkey might realise that giving away the secrets of a system they intend to use themselves is not the best idea, and that Russia can be a much better ally than the US has ever been to Turkey... hell the EU wont even allow Turkey to become part of europe... happy to let it join HATO and spill their blood to save the europeans but not quite enough friendship there for you to actually join the club.
Russia and Turkey don't need to be blood brothers joined at the hip like Siamese twins... but there needs to be cooperation and a level of trust there... they have a lot in common and they can help each other out quite a lot as long as neither side does anything stupid, because that is what the US is hoping for because it already did something stupid by trying a coup in Turkey.
Compromising S-400 technology just means S-400M needs to be developed and it probably is with improvements in radar soon to change the way they make their radars no doubt... they talk about the difference it would make to radar sets but imagine what change it would make for Active radar homing missile seeker heads being smaller and lighter and much much more powerful...
Airman- Posts : 440
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Does anyone have any idea about this? I think the truck is MAZ-7410.
magnumcromagnon- Posts : 8138
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Location : Pindos ave., Pindosville, Pindosylvania, Pindostan
Airman wrote:
Does anyone have any idea about this? I think the truck is MAZ-7410.
It's an auxillary vehicle, probably missile loader with extended protrusion underneath the canvas/tarp being a hydraulic crane.
PapaDragon- Posts : 13467
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About OPSEC concerns: S-400 has already been exported to China so you can bet that USA already has info on it
And since Russia is about to deliver it to India you can bet that they fully expect it to become public domain knowledge and have it covered
So it's very unlikely that USA could learn anything from Turkish S-400 that they don't know already
Airman- Posts : 440
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George1- Posts : 18514
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Eighth plane carrying S-400 components arrives in Turkey
https://tass.com/defense/1068530
https://tass.com/defense/1068530
magnumcromagnon- Posts : 8138
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PapaDragon wrote:
About OPSEC concerns: S-400 has already been exported to China so you can bet that USA already has info on it
What makes you think the PRC gave their secrets to the US? I'm willing to bet the version of S-400's delivered to China is different to the ones delivered to Turkey, or the ones that could be delivered to the GCC, let alone the ones operated by VKS.
Airman- Posts : 440
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magnumcromagnon wrote:Airman wrote:
Does anyone have any idea about this? I think the truck is MAZ-7410.
It's an auxillary vehicle, probably missile loader with extended protrusion underneath the canvas/tarp being a hydraulic crane.
I think I found it. 40V6M/40V6MD Semimobile Mast with 96L6E Acquisition Radar.
George1- Posts : 18514
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Deliveries of S-400 second battalion to Turkey to start on August 27 — top brass
JohninMK- Posts : 15617
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George1 wrote:Deliveries of S-400 second battalion to Turkey to start on August 27 — top brass
I don't read Turkish but it looks like 2x An-124 and an Il-76 were delivering today. At least one Il-76 yesterday. Looks like someone wants to get this stuff into Turkey asap.
Goklerdeyiz
@Goklerdeyiznet
2h2 hours ago
30 AĞUSTOS 2019... Zafer Bayramı. S400 Hava Savunma Sisteminin ikinci partisinin sevkiyatı son hızla devam ediyor. Bugün 2 adet Antonov An-124 ve 1 adet İyushin İl-76 tipi nakliye uçağı teslimata devam etti.
GarryB- Posts : 40515
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If Turkey want to joint produce MiG-35s and buy some Su-35s and even a version of the Su-57 (with their own secret sauce of course) then Russia might succeed in luring Turkey away from the EU who don't really seem interested in Turkey except to keep them hostile to Russia.
Turkey has a lot of talent when it comes to their defence industry and I think they could be a valuable partner for Russia to sell weapons to new customers that might never consider Russian equipment but might consider Turkish weapons.
Once south stream is working at capacity I really don't think the EU will be able to punish Turkey for anything like they do... especially after Saudi Arabia dismembering a man alive in their embassy... compared to anything Turkey does this shows the real morals of the EU can be bought... which kinda taints their value.
I suspect the Russians might just say to the Ukraine that they wont pump any gas through their country because the pipes are not being maintained and they have a history of stealing gas meant for other customers... if the EU wants Russian gas they will need to use LNG till north stream II is working... and the delays to that system are because of EU states for which Russia accepts no blame.
The EU can pay much more for LNG until North Stream II is ready and working, they can buy it from Russia or from the US... I believe the Russian gas is rather cheaper than US gas but that is for the EU to decide for themselves... if they want to pay 50% more for freedom gas then that will influence production and energy efficiency in Europe.
Turkey has a lot of talent when it comes to their defence industry and I think they could be a valuable partner for Russia to sell weapons to new customers that might never consider Russian equipment but might consider Turkish weapons.
Once south stream is working at capacity I really don't think the EU will be able to punish Turkey for anything like they do... especially after Saudi Arabia dismembering a man alive in their embassy... compared to anything Turkey does this shows the real morals of the EU can be bought... which kinda taints their value.
I suspect the Russians might just say to the Ukraine that they wont pump any gas through their country because the pipes are not being maintained and they have a history of stealing gas meant for other customers... if the EU wants Russian gas they will need to use LNG till north stream II is working... and the delays to that system are because of EU states for which Russia accepts no blame.
The EU can pay much more for LNG until North Stream II is ready and working, they can buy it from Russia or from the US... I believe the Russian gas is rather cheaper than US gas but that is for the EU to decide for themselves... if they want to pay 50% more for freedom gas then that will influence production and energy efficiency in Europe.
Isos- Posts : 11598
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Turkey has a lot of talent when it comes to their defence industry and I think they could be a valuable partner for Russia to sell weapons to new customers that might never consider Russian equipment but might consider Turkish weapons.
Not trustfull at all. They could end up selling russian weapons without russia's agreement.
Russia is not really looking at joint development or co-production. Mostly they could do the same as with indians and deliver the jet in parts and let turks put them togather.
The reaction of the US will be different too. S-400 is a defensive system, with no analogues in turkish inventory and they ordered only 2. It was acceptable. A new russian fighter would mean a more independant Turkey, with a new air force using new russian equipment and weapons. They will sanction them badly and turkey's economy will feel it.
Russian intentions are very clear. They want to push Turkey out of Nato. Once it happen the most likely scenario is a war btw Greece and Turkey over turkey's oil drills near Cyprus and nato destroys turkey. Less likely a war with russia over Syria supported by Greece and Nato. Russia could then annexe Georgia with its troops and a big part of east mern turkey whike Greece takes the european part.
d_taddei2- Posts : 3025
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The thing I don't get is why turkey seems he'll bent on getting patriot like it's going to settle things with usa. For start it won't. usa will give them severely downgraded shit at a silly high price that's if they even get it. Turkey would be better off doing a deal with Russia on getting S-350 with so many part produced in Turkey it would likely be cheaper and they be getting a better system fully capable of integrating with S-400. then add in some Pantsir and they are sorted. Other Russian systems could also be bought on joint production deals. If turkey really means to stand up to pressure of usa then get on with it.
GarryB- Posts : 40515
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Turkey wants its F-35s and only considers Russian alternatives because they are being denied access to the F-35s which Turkey actually makes parts for.
Turkey has a problem with the US but I suspect only certain elements within the US really, and would probably prefer normal relations.
Russia would prefer to trade normally with the US and the west with no sanctions but they are not really getting a choice either.
Turkey has a problem with the US but I suspect only certain elements within the US really, and would probably prefer normal relations.
Russia would prefer to trade normally with the US and the west with no sanctions but they are not really getting a choice either.
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Viktor- Posts : 5796
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Not trustfull at all.
Thats now from the US point of view. From Russia point of view situation could seem quite different and as you can see its growing in size and complexity with Turkish Steam and Akkuyu NPP, now S-400, national payments systems and trade ceiling put way of from where it is now and with future prospects in talks. Dont confuse US distrust and disrespect towars Turkey and its people with the Russian relation with the Turks
They could end up selling russian weapons without russia's agreement.
Or perhaps they could donate a few of F-35 to the Russian president as a gift for the tip that saved president Erdogan life and as revenge for the kill US has tried on him.
Russia is not really looking at joint development or co-production. Mostly they could do the same as with indians and deliver the jet in parts and let turks put them togather.
India is a bad bad point to make as Russia has taught and co-develop with India scientiest Brahmos missile, its SSN and many others while at the same time for other items provided localised production in form of kits. Will depends on customer not Russia.
The reaction of the US will be different too. S-400 is a defensive system, with no analogues in turkish inventory and they ordered only 2. It was acceptable. A new russian fighter would mean a more independant Turkey, with a new air force using new russian equipment and weapons. They will sanction them badly and turkey's economy will feel it.
There can be no acceptable or no-acceptable wording when dealing with an independent nation
that is why you can not know with will happen but you can as per naive wish push forward only a guessing contest no different than some crazed prophet.
Russian intentions are very clear. They want to push Turkey out of Nato. Once it happen the most likely scenario is a war btw Greece and Turkey over turkey's oil drills near Cyprus and nato destroys turkey. Less likely a war with russia over Syria supported by Greece and Nato. Russia could then annexe Georgia with its troops and a big part of east mern turkey whike Greece takes the european part.
Rumbling from the position of fear.
Using words just because you happen to be acquainted with them and just because google allows it does not mean it makes sense anytime used and has more to do with probability of blind chicken happening to pick a beam than anything else towards sense
GarryB- Posts : 40515
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Russian intentions are very clear. They want to push Turkey out of Nato.
NATO is a coalition of lots of relatively weak little countries joining forces with a few former and current colonial powers mainly directed at countering Russia... why would Russia consider not taking the opportunity of improving relations and trade with a country that is a part of that structure.
Russia does not decide who is part of NATO and who is not... NATO fanboys repeatedly say that this or that country has the right to join NATO if they want and the fact that the Soviets withdrew their military forces out of eastern europe and the US basically moved its forces in to replace them and beyond into former Soviet states as well... how can they see that as anything but aggression... but of course those countries have the right to join NATO if they want... well of course they do, but Russia also has the right to sell gas and military equipment to NATO countries if they want it... if the rest of NATO kicks them out of NATO then that is up to NATO... it is hardly Russias fault now is it? Especially when Turkey asked for membership of the EU and the EU keeps refusing, they asked for Patriots and Obama kept refusing... well Turkey is cooperating with Russia in a range of military and political and economic areas... it is in Russias interests to trade with anyone they please... being former enemies and rivals means nothing today... most countries of NATO have been at war with each other over the last few thousand years... shifting borders and stealing territories... are you expecting that to change ever?
flamming_python- Posts : 9518
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GarryB wrote:Russian intentions are very clear. They want to push Turkey out of Nato.
NATO is a coalition of lots of relatively weak little countries joining forces with a few former and current colonial powers mainly directed at countering Russia... why would Russia consider not taking the opportunity of improving relations and trade with a country that is a part of that structure.
Russia does not decide who is part of NATO and who is not... NATO fanboys repeatedly say that this or that country has the right to join NATO if they want and the fact that the Soviets withdrew their military forces out of eastern europe and the US basically moved its forces in to replace them and beyond into former Soviet states as well... how can they see that as anything but aggression... but of course those countries have the right to join NATO if they want... well of course they do, but Russia also has the right to sell gas and military equipment to NATO countries if they want it... if the rest of NATO kicks them out of NATO then that is up to NATO... it is hardly Russias fault now is it? Especially when Turkey asked for membership of the EU and the EU keeps refusing, they asked for Patriots and Obama kept refusing... well Turkey is cooperating with Russia in a range of military and political and economic areas... it is in Russias interests to trade with anyone they please... being former enemies and rivals means nothing today... most countries of NATO have been at war with each other over the last few thousand years... shifting borders and stealing territories... are you expecting that to change ever?
And if a country doesn't want to join NATO, or doesn't want to be part of NATO any longer..
The US and EU have the right to stage a coup and replace their leadership with one that does.
GarryB- Posts : 40515
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Exactly... like any bully or spoiled rich kid... you are either with me or against me... you can't just live next door and expect me to mind my own business and leave you to get on with your own life...
Isos- Posts : 11598
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https://mobile.twitter.com/AydinlikGazete/status/1198926752745246720
Turkish S-400 radars tested against an f-4.
Turkish S-400 radars tested against an f-4.
Isos- Posts : 11598
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Isos wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/AydinlikGazete/status/1198926752745246720
Turkish S-400 radars tested against an f-4.
Edit : Some say it was f-16. That means they probably tested onboard radars against the s-400 to have it in tge data base for passive detection. And probably ECM too. The S-400 are manned by russians. Too bad they didn't wait for the first f-35 before geting the S-400
.
GarryB- Posts : 40515
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The S-400 system in Syria will be collecting up information on Israeli F-35s and US F-22s anyway... and F-35s in europe will be tracked and examined too... it is unavoidable.