Syrian War: News #19

SeigSoloyvov wrote:SAA lost their gains on the East Side of Khan but made good progress on the West Side if they can hold it from the counter-attack, they are in a position they can start to raid the city.

ultimatewarrior wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:SAA lost their gains on the East Side of Khan but made good progress on the West Side if they can hold it from the counter-attack, they are in a position they can start to raid the city.

Stop lying. SAA took Saker and Tal Saker on the east, so they haven't lost anything in the east.

SAA will never attack Khan Sheikhon directly. It's a big settlement and heavily defended.

In the west they are going for Kafr Sajnah to cut M5 highway and besiege Khan Sheikhon. There is only 1 small village between Kafr Sajnah and M5 highway. Kafr Sajnah is much smaller than Khan Sheikhon, and much easier to take.

ultimatewarrior wrote:Turkey wastes 100,000 USD Kornet missile bought from Russia on a cheap 57 mm gun.

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1161334883177959424

flamming_python wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:Turkey wastes 100,000 USD Kornet missile bought from Russia on a cheap 57 mm gun.

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1161334883177959424

$100,000?

I doubt it's anywhere near that much. Maybe a ready unit (launcher + sights + rockets), but not each individual rocket.

A baseline Metis missile costs about $5000 for comparison

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:SAA lost their gains on the East Side of Khan but made good progress on the West Side if they can hold it from the counter-attack, they are in a position they can start to raid the city.

Stop lying. SAA took Saker and Tal Saker on the east, so they haven't lost anything in the east.

SAA will never attack Khan Sheikhon directly. It's a big settlement and heavily defended.

In the west they are going for Kafr Sajnah to cut M5 highway and besiege Khan Sheikhon. There is only 1 small village between Kafr Sajnah and M5 highway. Kafr Sajnah is much smaller than Khan Sheikhon, and much easier to take.

Wrong they lost their gains on the Sukaik Axis don't reply to me with incorrect information.

JohninMK wrote:This was from the 14 August. Anyone put up a similar analysis as to what has happened over the past couple of days?

Operation Idlib Dawn Update - TTG



BEIRUT, LEBANON (7:00 A.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) scored a big advance in the southwestern countryside of the Idlib Governorate this past weekend. Led by the Tiger Forces, the Syrian military meticulously advanced along the Hama-Idlib axis over the weekend, seizing one site after another from the militants.

This advance by the Syrian Arab Army eventually led to the capture of Al-Hobeit in southwestern Idlib, marking the first time that they have established a foothold in this part of the governorate since 2014.

In the Anna News video below, the Syrian Arab Army’s operation is chronicled from its start to its conclusion:  (Al Masdar News)

—————

Yes, the SAA’s strategy of careful conservation of their forces while pressuring the jihadis with a mixture of surprise maneuvers, persistence and the application of massive, precision firepower is bearing fruit. The Anna News video explains much of this quite well. Pay particular attention to the use of night assaults and long range precision sniping with T-72 and T-90 tanks equipped with thermal imaging sights. Air and artillery precision strikes are aided by aerial drones. As far back as the mid-70s, the Benning School for Boys taught us that if you can be seen, you can be killed. We learned to make use of “the minute folds in the terrain” as cover and concealment to keep our light infantry asses from being blown off. You can see the SAA infantrymen doing the same thing. “Those are regulars, by God!”

This victory is more than just another town in Idlib. It is of great military significance. As someone mentioned in the video, Khan Sheikhoun and the M5 is within sight of al Hobeit at a distance of eight kilometers. How confident are the Syrians that they can keep this town? On August 12 the Syrian Defense Minister visited al Hobeit. That’s confidence.

The jihadis in Khan Sheikhoun not only have to sweat the Tiger Force at al Hobeit, they face a similar threat to their east. In a surprise assault, the SAA took the high ground of Tal Sukayk and the town of Sukayk capturing large quantity of jihadi arms and ammunition in the process. These SAA forces are now ten kilometers from Khan Sheikhoun. A massive jihadi counterattack on Tal Sukayk was repelled with massive losses to the jihadis in both men and equipment. The SAA is moving more forces into both these fronts. The goal appears to be an envelopment of Khan Sheikhoun from the east and west isolating a cauldron of jihadis in their strongholds of Latamanah and Morek. The jihadis have two choices. Either die in place without Turkish resupply or have the living Jesus knocked out of them by Syrian and Russian air assets as they evacuate through Khan Sheikhoun.

This is not the only good news from Idlib Dawn. The 4th Armored Division is finally on the verge of entering Kabani. The 42nd Brigade has seized the entire Zuwayqat Mountains south of Kabani from the jihadis. In this battle, Russian assault helicopters, including the all weather Mi-28N attack helicopters, lead the assault in close coordination with the 42nd Brigade’s advance. The Zuwayqat Mountains and the town of Kabani overlook the entire al Ghaab Plain and the important town of Jish al Shigour. That the 42nd Brigade was able to do this after more than two months of heavy offensive operations is a testament to their discipline and professionalism.



As of this morning, the Tiger Force has advanced past al Hobeit to Kafr Ayn, Mantar and Tal Aas. They are now three kilometers from Khan Sheikhoun. I smell a bubbling cauldron forming... with a Turkish observation post inside.

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2019/08/operation-idlib-dawn-update-ttg.html

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:SAA lost their gains on the East Side of Khan but made good progress on the West Side if they can hold it from the counter-attack, they are in a position they can start to raid the city.

Stop lying. SAA took Saker and Tal Saker on the east, so they haven't lost anything in the east.

SAA will never attack Khan Sheikhon directly. It's a big settlement and heavily defended.

In the west they are going for Kafr Sajnah to cut M5 highway and besiege Khan Sheikhon. There is only 1 small village between Kafr Sajnah and M5 highway. Kafr Sajnah is much smaller than Khan Sheikhon, and much easier to take.

Wrong they lost their gains on the Sukaik Axis don't reply to me with incorrect information.

ultimatewarrior wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:Turkey wastes 100,000 USD Kornet missile bought from Russia on a cheap 57 mm gun.

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1161334883177959424

$100,000?

I doubt it's anywhere near that much. Maybe a ready unit (launcher + sights + rockets), but not each individual rocket.

A baseline Metis missile costs about $5000 for comparison

Kornet is basically ground launched Vikhr. BGM-71 costs 60 grand. Fagot costs about 20 grand. Konkurs costs about 40 grand. Kornet is laser guided, not TOW like these other ones. Much more expensive. 100 grand or more is likely. Kornet is so expensive SAA only uses it sparingly. To waste Kornet on cheap pickups and machine guns means Turkey must have bought thousands if not tens of thousands of Kornet from Russia.

flamming_python wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:Turkey wastes 100,000 USD Kornet missile bought from Russia on a cheap 57 mm gun.

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1161334883177959424

$100,000?

I doubt it's anywhere near that much. Maybe a ready unit (launcher + sights + rockets), but not each individual rocket.

A baseline Metis missile costs about $5000 for comparison

Kornet is basically ground launched Vikhr. BGM-71 costs 60 grand. Fagot costs about 20 grand. Konkurs costs about 40 grand. Kornet is laser guided, not TOW like these other ones. Much more expensive. 100 grand or more is likely. Kornet is so expensive SAA only uses it sparingly. To waste Kornet on cheap pickups and machine guns means Turkey must have bought thousands if not tens of thousands of Kornet from Russia.

Fagot costs 20 grand, Konkurs costs 40 grand - where are you getting these figures from?
Perhaps, when they were first produced.

But the baseline Metis missile (not Metis-M or M1) costs about $5000 (maybe that's just its after-market price though); most probably due to minituarization and better technology, which cheapened components and allowed them to exclude the most expensive parts from the missile itself, and just have it on the launcher

The Kornet is a laser-beam rider. This doesn't neccessitate the need for some powerful laser homing seeker; rather just a powerful laser on the launcher itself, and a receiver on the missile.
If it I had to guess, I'd say that the missile would cost no more than $25,000

GarryB wrote:The western media are silent on all of this, so they either don't care or actually support the eradication of these terrorists now that some have come to western countries to live and a noticeable increase in knife crime has occurred...

GarryB wrote:The western media are silent on all of this, so they either don't care or actually support the eradication of these terrorists now that some have come to western countries to live and a noticeable increase in knife crime has occurred...

nero wrote:Syrians have taken a point in Khan Shaikhun, it will likely fall within next few days. Completing the cauldron.

1. Syrians can strike the Turkish convoy with impunity
   
2. Syrians have superb observation of entire M5 highway, as they were able to hit a rebel escort with deadly precision, which requires them at minimal to know where he was located

nero wrote:Turkey tried to establish an observation post in Khan Shaykhun, to prevent Syrians from taking it. Didn't get further than Maarat Al Nuuman, before one of the rebel escorts they had with them got blown up. From this we know that:

1. Syrians can strike the Turkish convoy with impunity
   
2. Syrians have superb observation of entire M5 highway, as they were able to hit a rebel escort with deadly precision, which requires them at minimal to know where he was located