Israeli-Hezbollah conflict

What is known about Hezbollah's armed strength?

Part 1 (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/26320)

With Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah exchanging fire on the border lately, Tel Aviv has been urged by some rightwing politicians to enter southern Lebanon and destroy Hezbollah. If Israel makes such a decision, what kind of armed forces is it going to face there?

Although there are no official statistics on what the Hezbollah military wing in Lebanon is like, here are some facts we’ve collected relying on open sources.  

Military personnel
In 2021, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah noted that the Lebanese movement's military structure includes approximately 100,00 "trained, organized and experienced Lebanese men".  

General amount of missiles
Hezbollah possesses more than 1 million rockets of various types, including precision-guided missiles and modified Katyusha rockets for increased accuracy, as well as anti-tank missiles, an unnamed official with Iran’s Quds Force recently told Foreign Policy. In 2022, Nasrallah also stated that Hezbollah had the ability within Lebanon to convert thousands of rockets into precision missiles and to produce drones.

Ballistic missiles
In November 2023, Nasrallah said the movement used a Burkhan missile against Israel. Hezbollah has “thousands” of such Burkhans with a range up to 10 km, causing destruction within a radius of 150 meters. The Lebanese movement also has Zelzal-1 and Zelzal-2 artillery ballistic missiles, and Fateh-110 short-range, road-mobile ballistic missiles.

Part 2 (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/26319)

Anti-aircraft missiles
Hezbollah stated it had shot down an Israeli drone over southern Lebanon with a surface-to-air missile on several occasions. The latest was on June 10, according to the movement's official statement.  

Anti-tank missiles
Hezbollah has repeatedly used guided anti-tank missiles extensively. The movement's social media confirmed that Hezbollah had used Kornet anti-tank guided missiles, designed for heavy battle tanks, and the Almas ATGMs. Both are mostly used in attacks against the Israeli Meron airbase.

Anti-ship missiles
Hezbollah first proved it had anti-ship missiles C-802 in 2006, when it hit an Israeli warship 16 km off the coast. The movement also released videos showing more of the same type of anti-ship missile used in 2006.

Part 3 (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/26320)

Drones
Hezbollah claims to have its own kamikaze drones called Ayoub and Mersad, which they regularly use in their attacks on Israeli territory.

NLOS
Talking to Al Mayadeen in February 2024, commander of Hezbollah's anti-armor unit mentioned a new NLOS (Non Line Of Sight Launch System) weapon developed by the resistance. He noted that 'Hezbollah's anti-armor capabilities had the lion's share in the fighting due to the nature of the mission'. Hezbollah is adhering to secrecy because it doesn't not want 'to put all of its cards on the table', he said.

With more to come
Hezbollah has not yet unleashed "the weapons of the great war," member of the Lebanese Parliament Mohammad Raad told local media in March 2024.

https://t.me/geopolitics_live/26319

‍ Scenes from the operation of the Islamic Resistance targeting the headquarters of the artillery battalion of the Western Brigade of the Israeli enemy army at the Khirbet Maar base in northern occupied Palestine with swarms of assault drones.

https://t.me/ResistanceTrench2/7718

‍ Scenes from the operation of the Islamic Resistance targetting the Meron base of the Israeli enemy army, in northern occupied Palestine

https://t.me/ResistanceTrench2/7719

‍ Scenes from the operation of the Islamic Resistance targeting the Bayad Blida site of the Israeli enemy army on the southern Lebanese border.

https://t.me/ResistanceTrench2/7720

— / BREAKING: Hezbollah is now broadcasting precise drone footage of Israeli military areas all over the country

— NEW: For the past 10 minutes, and still ongoing, Hezbollah is publishing drone footage of extremely sensitive Israeli sites, recorded by the 'Hudhud' UAV

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/7137

— NEW: Hezbollah now live broadcasting detailed video of the port of Haifa, including Israel's 'Sa'ar' missile ships

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/7138


— Hezbollah revealed some extremely sensitive Israeli targets, such as:

– Locations of the Iron Dome batteries in Haifa

– Locations of the David Sling batteries in Haifa

– Locations of the Arrow-3 batteries in Haifa

– Locations of Israel's 'Sa'ar' missile warships in Haifa Port

– Locations of Israel's air defense missile storages

– Precise locations of Israel's military industrial complex and logistics

And many more, which we will know once the full ~10 minute video is released.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— WATCH: Hezbollah releases full footage of its aerial reconnaissance operation, capturing vital intelligence on sensitive military sites in occupied Haifa

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/7141

"Yedioth Ahronoth" Hebrew Newspaper: The main question is how Hezbollah's drone was able to penetrate "Israeli" airspace. The video lasts nine minutes, raising another question: How did it manage to produce high-quality, color photographs of sensitive sites from a low altitude and for such a prolonged period?

This is the X version for those of us not on T

Global Info Factory@GlobalInfoFact


The capability displayed by Hezbollah left the army and security officials speechless.


Hezbollah broadcast live(!) footage from a drone over a military airfield in Haifa, protected by the Iron Dome. Israeli media call this one of the most humiliating events for Israel and the Israeli army since the outbreak of clashes with Hezbollah after October 7.

The Israel Defense Forces has approved battle plans for an offensive in Lebanon

IDF Commander of the Northern Military District Ori Gordin and Head of the Operations Directorate of the General Staff Oded Basiuk approved the combat plans and "held a joint situational assessment in the Northern Command", according to an army statement.

"As part of the situational assessment, operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved and validated, and decisions were taken on the continuation of increasing the readiness of troops in the field," the army's Telegram channel said in a statement.

In May, the IDF Press Service reported that Israel Defense Forces Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi assessed the security situation in the Northern Command location and announced preparations for an offensive on the northern front in light of continued shelling by the Lebanese Hezbollah movement (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/26649).

The situation on the Israel-Lebanon border has escalated since the start of Israeli military action in the Gaza Strip in October 2023. The Israeli army and Lebanese Hezbollah (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/26319) fighters fire daily (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/26487) at each other's positions in areas along the border. According to the Lebanese Foreign Ministry, about 100,000 people were forced to leave their homes in southern Lebanon because of Israeli shelling. The Israeli side reported about 80 thousand residents of northern Israel who found themselves in a similar situation.

https://t.me/geopolitics_live/26677

Israel's strategy seems to have devolved just to punitive operations and scorched earth. Not fulfilling any traditional military objectives. But simply inflict enough pain that no-one would dare attack it.
Gaza has been half-razed, Hamas is still present but in no position to hit back at Israel.
And now Israel is going after Hezbollah. With no hope of destroying the organization, but simply inflicting enough pain to reduce its support base through fear of repercussion.

Sayyed Nasrallah: Martyrdom is neither defeat nor death, it’s a point of strength in the resistance fronts. The most dangerous thing the enemy faces is that their opponent who fights in these arenas, has this culture, thought, and faith of martyrdom.

Martyrdom, in the Islamic understanding, is a selection by God, a great victory, and a decisive triumph for every individual who attains it.

https://t.me/FotrosResistance/7019

Sayyed Nasrallah:

Hezbollah has surpassed 100,000 fighters, who have great readiness to fight

Official reports from the enemy state that 8663 from the enemy army are now disabled and in rehabilitation centers. Then what is the real number of those killed and wounded?

Sayyed Nasrallah

The party that should be in fear now is the enemy [not us].

Hezbollah will continue its operations in support of Gaza and at the same time is ready for all scenarios

Nothing will stop us

We have info that Israelis are conducting drills in Cyprus & its airports, which the enemy plans to use in case its airports/facilities were struck

We warn Cyprus against opening its facilities to “Israel”- If it does, we will treat it as part of the war

All the weapons that were supposed to reach Lebanon have already arrived

The weapons will be revealed when needed, and we have new weapons to introduce

We produce some of the rockets we need

We have a large amount of drones because we produce them

Hezbollah has a FULL and real target bank inside the Israeli occupation entity, and has the capability to reach its targets

The enemy must await us from land, air and sea, and we will fight with no constraints nor a ceiling

The [Israeli] enemy knows that what awaits it in the Mediterranean Sea is very massive

He could be also including the US in this threat

(Thanks to Hussein (https://x.com/eyesonsouth1) for the translations)

https://t.me/FotrosResistance/7022

I did say that once the Israel is somewhat happy with it's work in Gaza , it will single out first Lebanon and then Iraq and Yemen and finally Iran . The reason is that they can not possibly confront the entire resistance front together . So they do what the Americans do , they pick a fight one country at a time . And they can do this because still the resistance front has not deployed it's full forces at the same time . They should have done this when Israel started bombing Gaza . This includes Iran too . If anyone is in doubt about Israeli plans , then this is proof for them . Either the resistance front acts together and with full force or Israelis have a good chance of damaging badly the resistance front . Is Iran still going to stick to just supporting allies indirectly ? This is not enough . They need to commit fully their forces , including a land army to save Lebanon .

Hezbollah is fully aware that this time it will be all or nothing. Israel's back is against the wall and it knows that there will be no second chance. This means that there will be no half measures, this will likely be a short fight to the death.

It is likely that the moment the IAF air armada takes off Hezbollah Rocket forces will go to full alert with launch just before or as the first IAF aircraft/missiles cross the border. Thus giving the IAF pilots the classic view of thousands of missiles and rockets being launched in front of them at them and their bases.

What happens then depends in part on whether Israel has also attacked Syria or even Iran, and how Iran and the US react. If Israel unleashes its nukes ..........................................

May our Gods be with us.

Why Hezbollah would be a much harder nut to crack for Israel than Hamas

While Israel already finds itself in a serious predicament trying to battle Hamas in the Gaza Strip, it may find itself facing a much more serious adversary if Tel Aviv does decide to wage war against Lebanese movement Hezbollah (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/26054).

Unlike Hamas, Hezbollah commands (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/26319) a sizeable arsenal that includes rocket artillery, mortars, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/25658) and even air defense systems.

The military wing of the Hezbollah numbers in the thousands, with the exact figure being hard to estimate based on open sources alone.

That said, Hezbollah is not a strictly military entity but rather a political movement that holds considerable sway over Lebanon and has been described on more than a single occasion as a “state within a state.”

Foreign Policy also warns that Hezbollah may have developed its own tunnel network, akin to the one Hamas has in Gaza (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/12506), which could be much more extensive than the Palestinian group’s network.

Also, while the Gaza Strip is a relatively small enclave, Hezbollah has a lot more room in Lebanon to construct multi-layered defenses that may take a serious toll (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/26794) on the attacking Israeli forces.

While the Gaza Strip is effectively cut off from the rest of the world by Israeli blockade (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/17173), experts claim Israel would likely be unable to completely isolate Lebanon and Hezbollah would be able to receive support from abroad if Tel Aviv invades.

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Israel is being pushed towards disaster, by Pëtr Akopov for RiaNovosti. 06.20.2024.

The Israeli army has approved a "military action plan for an offensive in Lebanon." It turns out that we are on the verge of the operation in Gaza escalating into a full-scale war in the Middle East?

There has been talk of an Israeli attack on Lebanon for eight months, but it is only now that the likelihood has really increased. The IDF and Hezbollah have been shelling enemy territory all this time, and Israel is constantly threatening to invade. However, the chances of launching an offensive in the north before the end of hostilities in the south, in the Gaza Strip, always seemed small - despite the fact that Israel mainly carries out bombing and punitive operations in Gaza, Netanyahu was not able to launch a war on two fronts. However, in recent weeks it has become completely clear that there is no talk of any “victory in Gaza” and Hamas will not be destroyed. Recently, Netanyahu's so-called war cabinet collapsed, and US pressure to force Israel to end the operation in Gaza has reached its maximum. However, Netanyahu has nowhere to retreat: the end of hostilities with the conclusion of a truce agreement and the beginning of negotiations on the future of Gaza will be the beginning of the end not only of his premiership, but also of his political career, and possibly his life in freedom. Many people believe that in this situation Netanyahu will use his last trump card: he will begin military operations against Lebanon.

Therefore, the statements of recent days should be taken seriously - after Hezbollah recently published a video showing Israeli military and installations shot from a drone (including the suburbs of Haifa , where Israeli military factories are located), the intensity of Israeli threats has increased even more. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that any attack on Haifa would have global consequences: "We are very close to the point of deciding to change the rules of the game against Hezbollah and Lebanon. In an all-out war, Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be brutally beaten".

The Israeli minister speaks of what cannot be: Israel is not capable of destroying Hezbollah. Even Hamas in Gaza could not be dealt with in eight months, and yet it was an operation against guerrilla formations that had no air defense, artillery, or heavy weapons. Hezbollah is an order of magnitude stronger - and a war with it would be a disaster for Israel. The IDF can bomb many targets in Lebanon, but it will not be able to advance very deep into Lebanese territory without suffering huge losses. Simultaneously with the start of the Israeli offensive on Lebanon, much more powerful shelling of Israeli cities will begin, that is, there will be casualties among the Israeli civilian population. All this will explode the situation in the country - and will still lead to the fall of Netanyahu. So why is Tel Aviv playing with fire?

Then, he hopes to drag the United States into the conflict. They hope that as soon as hostilities begin and Israeli civilians begin to die, America will intervene and order its troops to support the IDF. Massive missile and bomb attacks on Lebanon will begin, or even an American landing. Hezbollah will not be destroyed, but will suffer very heavy losses and will be forced to ask for a truce and ceasefire.

The plan is simple, but completely unrealistic. If only because America categorically does not want to take part in the war with Hezbollah - the Biden administration does not need this either for domestic political reasons (elections are getting closer, and support for Israel is already costing the president a lot of Democratic votes) or for foreign policy reasons. The start of a war between Israel and Lebanon (and this is exactly how it will be perceived throughout the world) will deal a huge blow to the already noticeably weakened American influence in the Islamic world: they will expect from the United States real pressure on Israel to stop the aggression, and not see it , will accuse the States of indulging the aggressor. That is, even without directly taking part in the Israeli attack, the United States will lose greatly, and if Israel is supported by the actions of its army, Washington can simply close embassies in Arab countries.

And we are not even talking about the fact that Israel’s invasion of Lebanon will sharply increase the chances of the outbreak of a region-wide war, that is, Iran’s entry into it . And this already has absolutely unpredictable consequences not only for the region, but also for the whole world.

It turns out that no one needs the Israeli invasion of Lebanon except Netanyahu, and even for him it is acceptable only on absolutely unrealistic conditions. And yet it can happen? Yes, it can - although the probability of such an outcome does not exceed a few percent. Israel has played a most dangerous game with dire consequences—and as it climbs the ladder of escalation, it risks turning it into a suicidal experiment. There is no good way out of the Gaza operation for Netanyahu—the only question now is how far down he will drag his country down with him.

https://ria.ru/20240620/izrail-1954091710.html

In 1982 Israel invaded Lebanon.
One of the consequences was the creation of Hezbollah, which forced the Zionists to evacuate the area they occupied in the south of the country in 2000.
The United States also intervened in Lebanon in the 80s and this is how it went:

Done dome being targeted by drone

https://x.com/ashrafnsier/status/1804104790378414387

/ Haaretz reported that the Israeli army is planning to announce the end of the war after the operation in Rafah.

The recent news, including reports of Canada preparing to evacuate its citizens from Lebanon and the US giving Green light to the Israeli regime, along with the unprecedented threats made by Seyed Hassan Nasrallah against any Israel adventure on Lebanese soil, indicate significant developments in the northern region. We are currently at a critical juncture in the war, and important changes are underway.

#Israel #Lebanon

https://t.me/iswnews_en/11915

/ Foreigners mostly Canadians are leaving Beirut!

A video has been released from Beirut Airport showing many foreign nationals, including Canadians and tourists, leaving Lebanon due to fears of a massive war.


https://t.me/iswnews_en/11917

— Hezbollah released a statement: 'Stay tuned...to whom it may concern'

@Middle_East_Spectator

— NEW: Hezbollah shares a video warning Israel, showing various exact coordinates of oil storages, ports, airfields and other extremely vital military sites that will be targeted in case of a war on Lebanon

They also added the caption: 'Whoever thinks of war against us, will regret it.'


https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/7196

Eugenio Argentina wrote:— NEW: Hezbollah shares a video warning Israel, showing various exact coordinates of oil storages, ports, airfields and other extremely vital military sites that will be targeted in case of a war on Lebanon

They also added the caption: 'Whoever thinks of war against us, will regret it.'


https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/7196

Some of the nice targets :

* Orot Rabin Power Plant " biggest power station in israel ".

* Ben Gurion Airport.

* HaKirya Complex which contains the Tel Aviv District's government center and the major Israel Defense Forces base Camp .

* dimona nuclear plant .

Barzani family coordinated with Mossad for occupation of ISIS in Mosul in 2014 to advance Kurdistan interests in Northern Iraq.

Israelis saw this as a chance to strengthen their presence near Iranian border.

izrael is weak enough to be defeated by huge amount of small drones thanks to the limited area and low vs high cost long term war .

‍ Scenes from the operation of the Islamic Resistance targeting a building in which Israeli enemy army soldiers are stationed in the Metulla settlement in northern occupied Palestine.

https://t.me/ResistanceTrench2/7836