If you look at the base of this new Pantsir mount is appears to be suited to small trucks or static positions and trailers. I suspect the SM and the tracked model will either keep the guns or feature rather more than 12 racks..
I agree. The six missiles per side where each missile can be replaced by four small missiles is not so much an upgrade as it is the standard system without the guns, so smaller lighter and cheaper and lower maintenance. It would also be more suitable for defending things around the country because there wont be 30mm cannon shells blazing out at 5,000 rpm over the area where this thing is defending. Replacing missiles is easier than maintaining two twin barrel 30mm cannon. Replacing missile tubes is easier than cleaning and maintaining and loading 30mm cannon rounds.
In regards to guns, I think 57mm is slightly too big for a combination system, but perhaps 37mm or 45mm could be brought back for this role.
With command detonating 30mm cannon shells the 30mm guns are actually still good... especially for very light small targets like drones. Of course it means the very high rate of fire of the twin barrel 30mm 2A38M cannons is no longer needed and shifting back to the smaller lighter 2A72 single barrel cannon actually makes sense because the airburst shells and dual feed ammo make up for it.
Depending on the situation you could have airburst HE rounds in one feed and APFSDS rounds in the other. When you select the feed the aiming system will compensate for the very different trajectories of the two different rounds so all your HE rounds go where you want them and all your AP rounds go where you want them. The AP rounds have much better penetration than the full calibre AP rounds single feed guns fire.
So instead of a 2A38M cannon firing 50-70 shells per second each to cover the intercept box with 30mm shells so small targets can't slip through, you have the 2A72 cannon firing 5-6 rounds a second that fill the intercept box with fragments by exploding near the intercept box meaning firing a lot less shells but increasing your chances of getting hits on small targets. For larger heavier perhaps armoured targets, the APFSDS rounds will penetrate rather better than the full calibre AP rounds the 2A38M has to fire.
The 2A38M fires a continuous belt of ammo so the HE rounds and the AP rounds are on the same belt... this means the HE rounds can't be too heavy and slow and the AP rounds can't be too light and high velocity or they will have completely different trajectories and your shots will go all over the place. The HE round and the AP round have the same weight and speed so they both hit the same point of aim when fired in the same belt of ammo. This reduces the performance of the HE round which works better with more HE and does not need speed to be effective. With the AP round it needs to be the same weight as the HE round and moving at the same speed to shoot to the same point which means very high velocity darts are not an option.
With the 2A72 cannon it has separate feed systems so you can have HE airburst rounds and APFSDS rounds in separate feeds. When you select the ammo type it will adjust the point of aim so all your shells hit the target. It means when shooting armoured targets you get better penetration and with airburst rounds you can take out small light targets. You could also have HE frag shells without the command detonation stuff and more HE and bigger fewer fragments for use against larger heavier targets. You could even give it a smart fuse so if it impacts a target it penetrates inside before it explodes which would make it much more effective against soft skin targets too.
The 57mm gun is certainly too big to have in combination with Pantsir missiles but you could have SOSA or Verba/Igla-S missiles on it too. Cannon are ideal for targets flying straight and level while missiles are good for targets manouvering hard trying to evade interception.
The 57mm gun can also fire guided shells too.
While I have not done any calculations I would estimate that it would infact be more optimal to use a 76-100mm gun as a gun only system for guided shells and a 37-45mm for airburst. 57mm just seems too limiting to rate of fire for airburst to be optimal and too small to get the most out of guided shells.
I can't agree, even without airburst shells the S-60 was an excellent air defence gun, especially when used in conjunction with radar direction, but smaller faster targets like jets made it difficult for the systems of the time to track and engage such targets. The higher rate of fire of 14.5mm and 23mm weapons proved more effective in putting more projectiles up in the path of the target... the 30mm was added to increase range due to helicopter launched anti armour weapons.
The 57mm could not fire fast enough with conventional shells and without precision target tracking.
The 2S38 should be excellent for engaging targets of all types including A-10s, AH-64s, and drones as well as cruise missiles and other weapons used against ground vehicles.
Add a half dozen SOSNA missiles with 10km range and very high flight speed, and perhaps 4x Bulat ATGMs which would occupy the space of one Kornet missile for very close engagement of drones and you have an excellent air defence vehicle.
Of course you also need vehicles with jammers and lasers and your own drones...
Increasing the calibre would reduce the amount of ready to use ammo and I don't think the 2S38 will be spotting and tracking drone targets at more than 5-6km anyway... they are small targets with low IR and RCS signatures... a 57mm shell could hit targets out to 12km or so, larger calibres further, but how often would they detect such targets at such distances... and the extra weight of the guns and ammo and a rather lower rate of fire too.
The 57mm can achieve rates of about 240rpm which is pretty good with airburst ammo and precision target and outgoing shell tracking.
The calculations are intense, but a moving target detected 3km away moving in this direction at this speed can do all these things... climb or descend or maintain altitude, turn left or turn right, speed up or slow down or stop. In the 4 seconds it takes for the shells to get there you can use all those variables to create a box of where that platform can possibly be in that time period, and then you just need to fire bursts of 57mm shells with air burst warheads to fill that box with hot fragments... and then wait and if it works move on to the next target. One of the shells you fire of the perhaps 4 or 5 needed can be guided so as it moves closer to the interception box the box gets smaller as there is less time to manouver so the guided shell can manouver following the manouvers of the target to impact and get a hit.
To put it into perspective a hypersonic target like Zircon moving at 3km/s even if it didn't turn or climb or accelerate or decelerate... flying in a perfectly straight line has an interception point 12km away from its current position with a 4 second intercept time... if it was allowed to turn left or right or climb or descend then that 12km long box becomes quite enormous, and with a target moving at 3km per second if you go for one interception point and it turns that interception point might move 10km and you are already heading to the wrong intercept point... the intercept time is now less and you have to shift your flight intercept point 10km... most of the time you wont have time to reach it... remember half a second out and you miss by 1.5km.
Obviously with drones it is much simpler because the speeds are much lower.
57mm guns will be excellent, and not just for air defence but also for anti armour and general use on the battlefield, but the 30mm cannon will remain useful.
Lasers are becoming more mature and useful even if they might not be a lot of use in the rain or snow or the fog.