Yemeni Conflict: News #3

nomadski wrote:@KVS


"........Saudia Arabia is being used to counteract Iran on many fronts........". Yes agree. But like Syria , outside powers to the Yemen conflict will all follow the same agenda to different degrees. It is only the Yemen people, like Syrian people, who can truly unite their country.

To unite Yemen, then all parties to the conflict must negotiate and compromise. Including the Ansar Allah. I remember that Hadi supporters objected to the changing of laws into Islamic laws, as demanded by Houthis. They wanted a secular constitution.

I am saying that if a compromise constitution can not be agreed upon, then no side should try to impose their will on others by military force. A different Federal arrangement, allowing for regional autonomy  is a better solution and alternative to the present conflict.

Yemen was divided before along tribal lines, reflecting in different " socialist" ( tribal) perspectives. The roots may go back thousands of years. The Federal Republic will allow for a weaker national government. But it is better than having no government and war.

It looks like Yemen will split into a north and south or similar again.

I would think the Blackadder scene at the end of the first series where he is shouting run away run away... run to the hills.... and then Baldric tells him they are coming from the hills....

I rather suspect the US withdrawal is them realising it is a dead end Afghanistan/Vietnam type war against an enemy that is not going to give up or compromise... the change in leadership to creepy joe is probably seen as an opportunity to openly stop supporting that conflict and get out of any responsibilities there might be behind the scene.

The US has a long history of dropping allies in it... this is just more of the same.

It is rather odd that they are withdrawing air defence systems... Patriot batteries and THAAD batteries... both very expensive, and considering the location and the threats probably the last things they would be removing if this made any military sense... you don't withdraw protection and then what that protection is protecting... you withdraw what is being protected first.

Because of this I think this is more political and symbolic... the more so considering the faults in the systems and how vulnerable they both would be to low flying cruise missile attack, the chance of them escalating things and the enemy making them look really bad is enormous.

With a normal air defence battery you attack from multiple different directions at once in the hope that the missile directing radars can't cover all the incoming threats and are overwhelmed and the missiles that get through take out the guidance radars and search radars and then the battery can be cleaned up easily.

With the Patriot the missiles are on racks that are angled and can only engage targets to 120 degrees, so assuming a normal loadout of four racks you would use the first three to give 360 degree missile coverage and then the extra rack would be directed in the direction you expect most threats to come from.

That means the most likely line of attack you can deal with the most targets, but if they spot that... either via binoculars or satellite photo, they can plot flight paths for cruise missiles to attack from the weakest side and instead of dozens all coming from different angles you use dozens coming from one with the least number of SAMs pointed that way.

The amusing thing is that if you get your missiles to fly low enough it might not even see them till they get within the minimum engagement range... that is why S-300 and S-400 batteries have vertical launch missiles that can engage targets in any direction, but also have TOR or Pantsir and other systems defending them.

Another factor found in Desert Storm was the clock system on the Patriot was not very good.

To those that don't know time is critical... lots of different things have to coordinate and work together which means watches must be synchronised or for instance the missile might be launched too late and the tracking signal used to guide the missile is turned off before the missile hits the target, or the missile and tracking components are directed at the wrong piece of sky because they are looking at where the target was a minute ago and not where it is now.

Withdrawing forces is good I suppose but anyone thinking he might do the right thing for the Yemeni people is dreaming... he just wants to avoid his political enemies saying he is contributing to the famine and war in Yemen. He could care less whether he is or isn't actually doing that... he just does not want the accusations.

Indeed, they could drop the naval and economic blockade and then go for talks with the threat of the return of those blockades if they actually wanted some form of peace and stability.

I rather suspect they are going over the whole situation and trying to look at all the possible outcomes trying to work out which would suit them best... it really comes down to the agenda their trusted advisers have really... a lot of the worst things Trump did was because he surrounded himself with F'n idiots like Abrams and Bolten and Fatboy Bigmouth... don't even remember his name.

Will never happen though.... the powers that be in the ME and outside the ME simply wont hand things over to the people... and even if they did within a few years the wrong people will float to the top... you can be rapidly promoted because you have real talent, but you can also murder and kill and brutalise your way to the top.

Don't think the latter only happens in non first world countries...

Pretending that democracy somehow creates balance and peace is ridiculous, not that there are any real democracies to test the idea.

When you have something they want and you can't be bought your entire country is destroyed and they fund a few factions and roll the dice to see what happens.

Such countries could never be trusted to not interfere to get things shaped a way that suits their needs first and foremost.

Saddam wasn't cornered and trapped and isolated and then murdered for nothing. He wanted to unite the Arab states together... the US and the west couldn't give a shit about Kuwaite, but if they let him have that the next meal on the table was Saudi Arabia and there was no way he would be allowed to take that piece of the cake.

Wonder if a few Israeli jets being shot down would change feelings about this conflict in Israel...

It would but unlikely as the Houtis haven't been able to down anything but a drone for years.

I suspect that is more of a case of after losing quite a few aircraft already they have learned the engagement limits their their weapons and are flying outside that envelope to keep safe... but an added booster rocket motor to gain height and speed might change performance envelopes to make aircraft using new tactics vulnerable again...

Hell for all we know the Israelis might be helping the Houthies too... why would they not like to see a few Saudi aircraft smoking... they are sending their own aircraft because they know they have an off switch or something.