Syrian War: News #20

Erdogans "real" safe zone   ...somebody commented: it's missing Viena, that's why it failed last time


https://twitter.com/Pyrmha/status/1184265269738389504

GarryB wrote:

Wonder where they will be sending SeigSoloyvov?

No post by him since the middle of August but he was on the site last night. Keeping his head down?

SeigSoloyvov wrote: 

Alias seems I was wrong about this one but hey all the information I had and what I told me there would never be a complete withdrawal. So hindsight 20/20 there.

This caught everyone by surprise.

Either pretty good OpSec or last minute decision then.

Any sign of SAA movement yet east from Deir?

Not just the army bases but all the other improved infrastructure, roads, airfields, goodness knows what else, etc. A huge US expenditure when you add in the movable assets like military trucks, squad weapons, etc. They were still bringing in convoys of 'stuff' from Iraq twp or three weeks ago. Over a crossing now controlled by the SAA, the second into Iraq now open and the nearest to Iran.

Many interesting side effects rumbling out of the US move to rapidly exit. Israel must be, how shall I put it, disappointed.



Elijah J. Magnier
‏ @ejmalrai
32m32 minutes ago

The Syrian Army must be thankful to the #US army for leaving behind their military bases (thanks to US tax payers) in Manbij intact. These are serving the Syrian Army to position themselves in the city.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

So control of the oil fields will not be given up until the very very last minute.

It's not until we and over the oil fields we are fully out until then we are still in the area

Thought that might be the case. There was a view that the last area to be exited would be al-Tanf due to concerns over the massive refugee camp there.

Hypothetical I know but it could be reasonable to assume that SDF integration into the SAA covers the whole of Syria not just the north. So presumably there could be some manning changes upcoming in the SDF in your area in the south. Even Russian MPs.

Thanks.

Whilst it is just non Turks doing the dying Erdogan probably doesn't care, may even be a benefit especially if any ISIS operatives join in. Maybe only after his spearheads and conquered territory starts to be rolled back publicly will he claim some kind of peace victory saying that all he wanted was not Kurds along his southern border as he pulls his troops back and the SAA takes over the border and the vital east wets road M4.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:When the Turks do fall back and if Afrin is retaken, I can tell you right now the Kurds FULLY intend to try and worm their way out of the deal they made with Assad.

They only struck a military deal. And where the SAA and Russian forces are now moving into position, is where they'll be staying. Whether against either Turkey's proxies, or the SDF itself.

The political deal is yet to come, but with the SAA and Russians stationed all around the borders and Erdogan clearly only being placated if the SDF is absorbed into Syria; I simply see no leg to stand on for the Kurds.

They can hope for a measure of political autonomy, integration into Syrian military structures with some leeway, and a say in the new Syrian constitution with linguistic and cultural rights for minorities; and all this with Russian guarantees to prevent Damascus going back on it. That's the best case scenario, and that's about it. But if they don't take the offer then the next one won't be so generous. I'm not offering my opinion, I'm just saying it as it is.

If you want my opinion then I think there are things the rest of Syria can learn from their political structure and local economy. Well, if they're not boneheaded and play their cards right, maybe there might be an opportunity for that.

We aren't telling them to do this, they simply think they can play both sides to get what they want. But that will be Assad's and Russia problem now.

Then they're idiots. Worst case scenario, the SAA and Russians can just withdraw and the Turks will rape them again.

But I doubt that will be the case, they can't be that naive. They made their 'deal with the devil' and now they know to stick to it; all their flashmobs in European cities, twitter storms, messages of support from shamed US veterans and EU arms embargos against Turkey - don't give them any security. Only Damascus and Moscow do.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Well it was a military deal with none combat promises attached.

For the most part, your observation is fair well thought out and I agree with a lot of it.

The only thing I will say in response is you don't know how stupid and sneaky the Kurds can be we had to keep them on a tight leash because of this. Since we are giving them the finger I can say.

They aren't above silencing their own people and some other well "not nice" activities. I will let imaginations figure that one out.

Is not only a military deal.. but an economic aid deal too...
And Kurds leadership ,recently was complaining that not only Americans retreated ,but that also cut their
economic aid too.. So Kurds without US economic support ,will collapse and not sustain..in a land locked region.
So the kurds needs much more than weapons.. they also need financial support.. and security and if US leave the zone.. the Russia/Syria will step in.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:They aren't above silencing their own people and some other well "not nice" activities. I will let imaginations figure that one out.

I'm under no illusions; they're an offshoot of the PKK afterall, who aren't particularly nicer fellows than Columbia's FARC were.

Then again the Syrian government does all the same things. It's a messed up region and Syrian unity has to be achieved as soon as possible, so that stability can come and the economy can start to recover. Erdogan's latest rampage is an illustration of why, but it's not the first threat and it won't be the last one.

Vann7 wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Well it was a military deal with none combat promises attached.

For the most part, your observation is fair well thought out and I agree with a lot of it.

The only thing I will say in response is you don't know how stupid and sneaky the Kurds can be we had to keep them on a tight leash because of this. Since we are giving them the finger I can say.

They aren't above silencing their own people and some other well "not nice" activities. I will let imaginations figure that one out.

Is not only a military deal.. but an economic aid deal too...
And Kurds leadership ,recently was complaining that not only Americans retreated ,but that also cut their
economic aid too.. So Kurds without US economic support ,will collapse and not sustain..in a land locked region.
So the kurds needs much more than weapons.. they also need financial support.. and security and if US leave the zone.. the Russia/Syria will step in.

The Kurds have the oil fields. They'll have to give those up; which Ilham Ahmed has already indicated they're ready to. But of course, it's the US soldiers that are actually in control there.

crod wrote:israelis are very quiet these days...election fiasco aside.

Hardly quiet, they've been looking on in horror; both in terms of the implications for their own security (Trump's unreliability, Iran having a supply route into Syria), and because they've been the main advocates of Kurdish seperatism in Syria and have pinned their hopes on an independent Kurdish state to serve as a bullwark against Iranian influence. Here we have a party leader in the Knesset call for an independent Kurdistan outright, carved out of every neighbour's territory (including of course, Iran's): https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-turkey-launches-ground-invasion-shaked-calls-for-kurdish-state/

Of course far be it for the Israelis to actually stick their neck out for their professed anti-Arab, anti-Turk bro's for life. They prefer to watch from afar and offer commentary.

A former Israeli officer (intelligence?) and what looks to be an ex-Russian traitor penned this article in the Iraqi Kurd media early on in this new turn of events, expressing alarm about the US's unreliability:
https://www.rudaw.net/english/opinion/11102019

This Haaretz special attempts to paint the SAA as as much a threat to the Kurds as Erdo's goons are; given the fact that the SDF has now allied with Damascus - a sore fact especially to the distaste of the Israeli establishment:
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/.premium-desperate-kurds-see-only-enemies-around-them-a-special-report-from-syria-1.7990197

And then we have this pathetic commentator on Twatter doing her utmost to show how people in the SDF seemingly prefer control by Turkish rebel groups to the 'return of the regime'. Well, she might actually be right a little when it comes to cesspools like Manbij and Raqqa:
https://twitter.com/Elizrael?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

I'm feeding off all their tears
Twitter is a goldmine at the moment. An absolute goldmine of neo-con and neo-liberal frustration, humilitiation, accusations of Trump being a Russian agent, disbelief, denial and anger. Only ones I actually feel sorry for are the civilians being bombed; which unfortunately there is a lot of footage for too.

miketheterrible wrote:Hilarious.

Those Americans sure live luxury and then they got kicked out without firing a single shot from Russian side.

They sure are butthurt.

lol

Make good use of that pop and beer left behind, and use the cooking equipment to make some damn fine food!

I think half of US military budget is spent on luxury.

It was Motorola(Arsen Pavlov, May he Rest In Peace), that said " If you take away Cola Cola from NATO troops they are done".

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote: 

Alias seems I was wrong about this one but hey all the information I had and what I told me there would never be a complete withdrawal. So hindsight 20/20 there.

This caught everyone by surprise.

Either pretty good OpSec or last minute decision then.

Any sign of SAA movement yet east from Deir?

No, we are still entrenched in Deir area. This area hasn't gotten any formal pullout orders.

That area may be the very last to do so, People are trying to force Trump to stay since the SAA is now up in the north, even Trump if reverses his decision that area is gone.

I doubt Trump will change his mind, some people in Washington are really pissed though.

The Dems and Reps I heard are trying to pass a bill that if it gets enough votes in the senate, Trump by law must cancel the withdrawal.

So control of the oil fields will not be given up until the very very last minute.

It's not until we and over the oil fields we are fully out until then we are still in the area

So, lemme get this straight. You are 'serving military' and you just gave the world a SitRep concerning your unit during a tectonic shift of TPTB in your personal AO? Good thing I'm not your Shirt.

YPG action against the Turks and their allies



Southfront Report

auslander wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote: 

Alias seems I was wrong about this one but hey all the information I had and what I told me there would never be a complete withdrawal. So hindsight 20/20 there.

This caught everyone by surprise.

Either pretty good OpSec or last minute decision then.

Any sign of SAA movement yet east from Deir?

No, we are still entrenched in Deir area. This area hasn't gotten any formal pullout orders.

That area may be the very last to do so, People are trying to force Trump to stay since the SAA is now up in the north, even Trump if reverses his decision that area is gone.

I doubt Trump will change his mind, some people in Washington are really pissed though.

The Dems and Reps I heard are trying to pass a bill that if it gets enough votes in the senate, Trump by law must cancel the withdrawal.

So control of the oil fields will not be given up until the very very last minute.

It's not until we and over the oil fields we are fully out until then we are still in the area

So, lemme get this straight. You are 'serving military' and you just gave the world a SitRep concerning your unit during a tectonic shift of TPTB in your personal AO? Good thing I'm not your Shirt.

Don't forget the 3-4000 American PMC's serving in Syria.

Seig, were those videos inside the Manjib base typical of US accommodation all over the place?

SAA has entered Kobane (short video in link)

https://twitter.com/MIG29_/status/1184543933734494209

I have been wrong at times , when forget about one or two details here or there.. but generally most of the time ,have been right..  For example i believed Ukraine will not last more than 3-5 years after the coup in kiev ,and Nazi factions ,leading the policy of Ukraine of war on Russia in change for US economic support. US is the only reason Ukraine is not like Lybia today... They changed the Rules of the IMF ,to help Ukraine so that is not declared
bankruptcy is economy.. default.. Which will be the end of the end for any ,specially when is at war.. Soviet Union faced those consequences , of what will happen when your economy implode and you are at war.. your nation simply split and civil wars  split the country and sink the nation.

When people was saying in 2014.. that Minsk 2 ,is dead.. i was laughing .. i told them.. nope..
as long as Europe support it.. and stand by it.. Ukraine will have to do it . Even if Americans
tells them to not do it.. My logic was ,Because US will not pay the bills of Ukraine ,they only give loans..
and weapons ,and stop creditors from demanding their money they gave Ukraine..  So ukraine is being hold
its economy by US ,through loans and holding creditors.. but without a realistic economic grow.. That said
Kiev policies against Russia are not sustainable.. told it in 2014 and remains true today in 2019. Trump is actually now holding the money for more weapons to Ukraine..and pushing to abandon it..  as he did with Kurds.  
So back to 2014 , i believed Ukraine was doomed, it cannot sustain the war against Russia for ever. because will need to trade and they can't compete with European business either.. SO as long the european union stand with minsk2 , then Ukraine will have sooner or later to fully implement it.. if it desire one day to have a developed country and not a third world one ,that depends on begging US for money.. then it will have to become closer
to Europe france-germany block.. and not the American one. US no longer can do what it used to do in the 90s.. and transform any nation economy into a paradise ..  they even have economic problems at home.. So the best US will do is to hold Ukraine ,as a parasite state ,but as the poorest economy in all Europe..

Now what all this have to do with Syria?
That Turkey position /policies in Syria is miles Worse... Because not only US oppose Turkey invasion on kurds, But Europe ,Russia ,China and the entire. Turkey Operation threatens the entire Europe security because of millions of refugees will go to their country..
So Erdogan is digging its own grave... he is badly adviced.. Erdogan have NO CHANCE in a million of YEARS...
to create the Ottoman empire again.. neither to sustain the control of Kurdistan zones in Syria ,with ALL NATO , Russia ,CHINA the entire world against his operation.. So Erdogan who ever advice Erdogan to do this , is either a real IDIOT or someone who wants Erdogan popularity to fall from grace at the speed of light .
So Trump with the stroke of a pen can tear in million of pieces Turkey economy that is highly dependent
on 1) Europe 2)Russia tourism and food trade 3)US .   So as soon all this Muslim fanatics ,start to notice their currency and salaries lose half of its value ,and get worse only with time , you will see TECTONIC shift in Turkey politics and his own party/army/supporters  will remove him from power , either in a coup or elections.. he and his family have no chance to remain in power ,if Turkey Economy becomes the next Venezuela..and this Operation in Syria will only accelerate this down fall of Turkey economy.. Because is not about Capturing Kurdistan ,but about Holding it.. what will matter.. so Erdogan will face a vietnam in Syria ,if manage to avoid a war with Russia that is.. Since Europe and US will continue arming kurds through IRAQ border..      

So this is probably the most retarded move of Erdogan in the entire war.. and i don't think the European
Union will forgive him ,for threatening their nations security , by saying that will unleash millions of refugees
into their lands at any insult on his operation.. This was the biggest mistake Erdogan made.. and im Sure
all European intelligence agencies will have to be by now seeking a way to a major coup against Him.. and help an opposition more friendly to Europe to take power..  So expect a major civil war/coup  in Turkey in next weeks or few years ,because the entire world will want him out.. and Turkey is officially isolated in his new invasion..
So bad is ERdogan position , that american media CNN and others are saying that Putin give him a green light to invade Kurds territory..    So the west is trying to damage Putin image one again. but now by linking him
to Erdogan operation ,as if it was coordinated with Russia.  

My only question left is how long Erdogan will survive in power ,weeks? months? a couple of years? The only chance he had to sustain such operation is with Russia/China and IRAN support.. but if it is true that Russian airforce is bombing Turkey rebels convoys.. then this is really bad . One of the most basic Rules in wars..
is that you never go to one ,that you can't win. If American stand on their position ,to pushing Erdogan..
with economy sanctions and keep the pressure and increasing them.. with Europe joining.. then he is finished.

IT doesn't mean that Turkey can't defeat the Kurds and syrian army .for sure Turkey military have the power to over run in little time All Kurds zones.. it only means that the entire operation can't be sustained.. he will need Oil ,energy ,food ,supplies ,to continue the operation and hold the place..in fact , Erdogan threatens its hold
of IDLIB too.. because if Turkey invasion in Kurdistan ,breaks Turkey economy it will also back fire in Turkey IDLIB operation too.. So the next weeks is going to be very interesting... For Turkey .. my only concern is that erdogan is very emotional ,and could be irrational at times.. and can do very dangerous moves as shooting down the Russian plane..  and his emotions could push him to target not only Syrian army but also Russia military too.

ANother major problem Turkey will face Is ISRAEL..  it was a Russian military expert ,former military officer ,
who hit the nail ,when he told.. Turkey could become the Second IRAN.(a more powerful adversary). for israel and US.. and im sure the Israelis military have all to agree that Turkey with Erdogan is much more dangerous than IRAN..and with nuclear weapons Turkey could be a death sentence for Israel influence in the zone.. and specially if Russia is now arming them.. and so will be working for ways to remove erdogan or provoke a civil
war in Turkey.. that will weaken the nation..so much that split...

So either way Erdogan will face very negative consequences ,but Russia and Syria could face some negative consequences too if Erdogan start targeting Russian airforce..and Syrian army.. Since Turkey army will have far more advantage fighting so close to its land. So it could be a very difficult test even for Putin to keep diplomacy going and avoid a war with Turkey in the near future. So in the short term Turkey can wipe out kurdistan in weeks and take it all.. if Russia and US remains passive.. and allow it..., but in long term he will have no chance to sustain its operation if US and Europe keep sanctions on Turkey.. So this is probably the most foolish move of erdogan in the entire Syrian conflict... even more than shooting down a Russian plane..  You need allies in wars..
and Turkey have none in this new one against kurds.. So very foolish move.. it will be a disaster either way for Erdogan.. if he keep pushing for war.. or if he retreats.. and abandon it.. he will be called  a coward and a disgrace by his supporters..   So more than ever Turkey needs the help of Russia and IRAN and China ,for a way out of this mess ,he created for himself.. Since Russia axis can help Erdogan minimize the backlash for invading Europe's-americans-Israel most valuable freedom fighters.. in Syria . and save some face . Because Russia + Syria can organize a full disarmament of the kurds ,in change of Turkey leaving.. and so eventually
things returning to how it was in 2014.. With Syrian army in control of all Kurdish-turk borders.. and kurds even now disarmed and autonomy lost.. im sure Russia could pull such a deal and provide security to Turkey by disarming kurds.. in change turkey retreats from Syria.. Thats the only move left . a way out of this mess Erdogan created.. but for that to happen .. Erdogan needs to become more closer to Russia .. and listen them..
not NATO.. Is the only way Erdogan can save some face and make it even look ,like it was his real plan the entire time ,that their invasion was only to scare Americans ,but that he planned to disarm kurds with Russia help all the time and never intended to take any Syria territory.