I always said I was against Libya and Iraq and Syria.
America leaving Syria was always going to be a fairly critical part of there being any long term solution there...
So control of the oil fields will not be given up until the very very last minute.
Same as Iraq... invade the place and immediately secure... the oil wells...
Do you put on your CV that you work for oil companies?
This caught everyone by surprise.
With Trump in charge?
The guy speaks to his people via Twitter because he does not trust mainstream media in the US to not edit what he says... welcome to 21st C America...
Not just the army bases but all the other improved infrastructure, roads, airfields, goodness knows what else, etc. A huge US expenditure when you add in the movable assets like military trucks, squad weapons, etc.
That is the point though isn't it... for them to stay they would basically need to pay for everything including schools and hospitals and churches etc etc etc... and lets face it... this region has the most schools and hospitals and churches per capita than any other place in the universe if you listen to western reports of how many the Russian AF hit every day.
There perhaps could be but the Russians know they aren't allowed in areas we are unless there is an agreement beforehand, the kurds have zero say in this matter deal or no deal.
Do such deals continue to count when you guys are clearly leaving?
Kinda voids your agreements really.
The Kurds could argue that you also agreed to help them and you are not.
People have to remember that IRAN even though is under more sanctions and "survive" , Same with Venezuela.. But IRAN and Venezuela receive a lot of Russia and China and INDIA help.. So if Turkey goes against Russia and start bombing Syrian army forces.. then they will be alone on their on.. Without Russia help..that influence heavily China and India..Turkey tourism industry totally destroyed.. since not only Russia can do sanctions in tourism but also Europe.. IRAN and Venezuela too will have totally collapsed.. long time ago and even invaded ,if it wasn't by Russia support to them . that NATO knows Russia can cause major huge problems to any NATO operation..as we saw Russia doing in Syria. after came to help Assad.
So Erdogan options are.. 1)Go to the American elite way.. and save its economy and declare Russia an enemy.. again.. And provoke Russia into a fight.. that Russia could lose in Syria since have too few soldiers there.. but can win back fighting in the black sea.. targeting Turkey from the rear side.. 2)Go alone and be friend of no one and annoy everyone.. what he is initially doing now.. This will accelerate his downfall even faster.. will be kicked from power by his own people ,When Turkey becomes the new Haiti ,with people fighting for food in the streets.
3) Or Turkey can go the Russian way... and save face with Putin help, so that they finally reach a major deal.. so that Russia disarm kurds through diplomacy in change for Turkey leaving Syria.. the sanctions might continue from US ,but at least he will survive in power and save his economy with Russia/China/India help.
US will not save ERdogan ,they want him out... the european union even less.. after threatening them.. only aligning closer to Russia can help Erdogan political future and Turkey economy.. bypassing US sanctions . and as a bonus disarming kurds.. basically the return of Syria Government to 2014 borders will help Erdogan retreating from all the Syrian border.. that will keep the Kurds under control of Syria and Russia and disarmed in change for kurds saving their lives and being allowed into a security block ,that will protect them..
The question i wonder is..where are those that were claiming Kurds are a powerful fighting force ? if they are so strong why they need now the help of Syrian army ?
My bet is US warhawks will try to get Turkey out of Kurdistan , while at the same time encourage Turkey to fight Russia..
Erdogan is already having after thoughts of his bad decisions.. for invading Kurdistan without US support.. Those US sanctions are more lethal ,than any american special forces operation against Turkey. a Cease Fire have now been agreed after US vice president PENCE goes to Turkey to convince him.. to stop the fight..
Because it wasn't Putin who convinced him to stop ,but pence.. My best guess is that Turkey will go closer to US side.. and was offered help with holding IDLIB and help for disarming Kurds .and also a lot of money Bribery ,had to be offered to him..
So ERdogan have one feet already in the American Side.. but im sure he will like to keep receiving Russian weapons and knowledge in building Nuclear reactors. The question is what decisions he will agreed to take that will be against Russia interest. The US will try again to pull Kurds towards their side once again, and Kurds leadership Endless Greed and selfish policies ,( of all for us.. and nothing for others).. will make them make mistakes again and will not be surprising if they betray again the Syrian army and Russia. Also it is possible that a major split could happen between Kurds that wants to continue in the US side.. vs Kurds that no longer want to trust in them and want to return to Syrian side.
Either way ,The European union will not Forgive Erdogan for his security threats to their countries and they will do their best to kick Erdogan from power and get an opposition instead ..by force or by elections.. Putin in the other hand hopefully will not lower his guard again ,when his planes were shutdown by Turkey.. and understand that Erdogan will be more inclined to move to American side.. Since they have miles more leadershipa and influence than Russia.
Vann7 wrote: Erdogan is already having after thoughts of his bad decisions.. for invading Kurdistan without US support.. Those US sanctions are more lethal ,than any american special forces operation against Turkey. a Cease Fire have now been agreed after US vice president PENCE goes to Turkey to convince him.. to stop the fight..
Because it wasn't Putin who convinced him to stop ,but pence.. My best guess is that Turkey will go closer to US side.. and was offered help with holding IDLIB and help for disarming Kurds .and also a lot of money Bribery ,had to be offered to him..
So ERdogan have one feet already in the American Side.. but im sure he will like to keep receiving Russian weapons and knowledge in building Nuclear reactors. The question is what decisions he will agreed to take that will be against Russia interest. The US will try again to pull Kurds towards their side once again, and Kurds leadership Endless Greed and selfish policies ,( of all for us.. and nothing for others).. will make them make mistakes again and will not be surprising if they betray again the Syrian army and Russia. Also it is possible that a major split could happen between Kurds that wants to continue in the US side.. vs Kurds that no longer want to trust in them and want to return to Syrian side.
Either way ,The European union will not Forgive Erdogan for his security threats to their countries and they will do their best to kick Erdogan from power and get an opposition instead ..by force or by elections.. Putin in the other hand hopefully will not lower his guard again ,when his planes were shutdown by Turkey.. and understand that Erdogan will be more inclined to move to American side.. Since they have miles more leadershipa and influence than Russia.
Don't be naive. There's a reason why the Syrian Army didn't deploy to the section of the front where the Kurds and Turks are now fighting (look at the livemap I posted), why Russia is steering cleer of there, and why this ceasefire agreement only pertains to that section; as announced by the SDF commander just a couple of hours ago. The SAA-SDF agreement even declared that the SAA wasn't there to fight the Turkish proxies, the SDF would do that - the SAA was there to secure other sections of the border (one's not currently threatened).
There's a reason why the Americans started to publically 'pressure' Turkey not to advance on Kobani and a SAA convoy arrived and took up positions there just a day after that. Kobani is right on the Turkish border, and it took the Syrians 4 days to get there. Really think the Turks couldn't have attacked it if they wanted to?
Why Turkey was saying that the fate of Manbij is open to negotiations, while Russian and Syrians troops arrived there a couple of days ago. Manbij is some way behind the declared Turkish safe zone, and was never even threatened by them.
Why Trump/Pence even used the same language when announcing the ceasefire negotiations with Turkey, 'a deal that will save millions of lives' - as Russia had said to the SDF days ago when enticing the SDF to come to a deal with the SAA to allow it military passage to the border.
Russia, the US and Turkey all had this thing co-ordinated in advance. Everything else was theatre. Syria was the passenger, Iran the advisor, and the Kurds the poor chaps strapped to the deadly rollercoaster ride that hasn't reached its end just yet. And it has all gone quite to plan. Quite the Machievellian scheme it must be said, haven't seen anything like it before.
The Kurds decide absolutely nothing from now on. The Syrians - not much more; even though they're giving a lot of haughty statements about protecting the border and fighting Turkish aggression. Now Iran and Russia have declared that they'll mediate talks between the Syrians and Kurds. Russia and the US already have an understanding, as do Russia and Turkey. The US will be involved in some capacity too, but mostly their interest is just to save face and withdraw. All these ordinary Americans on Twitter talking about honor, betrayal and all these idealistic concepts; yet none of them are deciding anything.
Last edited by flamming_python on Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:55 pm; edited 7 times in total
Where is the Kontakt 5 ? Even kontact 1 would improve the protection of this outaded armor. Rpg-7 will go through this very easily and those tanks are mostly carrying HE shells which will make the BOOM even bigger. Maybe it's time to also test export arena APS and give it as an upgrade for t-72 and t-90.
Russians are not sizing the opportunity. They suck at marketing.
Where is the Kontakt 5 ? Even kontact 1 would improve the protection of this outaded armor. Rpg-7 will go through this very easily and those tanks are mostly carrying HE shells which will make the BOOM even bigger. Maybe it's time to also test export arena APS and give it as an upgrade for t-72 and t-90.
Russians are not sizing the opportunity. They suck at marketing.
It's just a Syrian T-62 manned by Syrians flying a Russian flag so the Turkish proxies don't shoot them by mistake. Note that the 'Russian' tank is the one in front.
Russia, the US and Turkey all had this thing co-ordinated in advance. Everything else was theatre. .
LOL.. Not really..
There are kurds dying in the hundreds.. and killing turks too ,but casualties favor Turkey ,and Turkey is creating new positions in IDLIB. There is no new agreements at all ,between Turkey and Russia.. This is Erdogan under pressure forcing to stop.. and Americans in change will have 5 days to convince Kurds to retreat from their own lands to avoid being killed..
So US is doing exactly what i was expecting them to do..
1)They will not fight Turkey.. 2)And they will be forced to leave..
What i did not mentioned ,was that US was going to sanction Turkey.. is just small details.. But there is a major split in diplomacy between US and Turkey over Northern Syria and the americans are trying to Earn some time ,with this new "Cease of fire" so try to convince KURDS to not fight Turkey.. which they will have a real problem in convincing them.... they feel betrayed..
And the Syrian army is doing what i was expecting.. to Focus in the Area of IDLIB ,to BLOCK Turkey from Capturing very important zones.. The positions of Syrian army priority is to encircle IDLIB ,to take control of all Turkey Border in IDLIB SIde and close /encircle all IDLIB from Syrian border.. While at same time.. helping Kurds to hold Turkey advance..
Your confusion is because you don't understand the concept of Attrition war.. This is how Russia fought in Syria.. and how Russia defeated napoleon.. they even allowed NAPOLEON to enter moscow ,to not face frontally a much more powerful army.. of NAPOLEON.. So Syrian army is fighting a guerrilla style war /Hit and RUN, and Bleed the Turkey army in the fight.. Time is against Turkey , because will be under sanctions and the more time Turkey operation last in Syria.. the worse the popularity of erdogan will be.. So there is Rush to push Turkey out.. what is important is to create major logistic problems to Turkey operation.. to make it expensive any advance.. that is a flexible elastic war.. where holding a line is not that important.. but to continue fighting without suffering casualties or few ones IS what counts.. Again is time the key in Russia and Syria strategy.. they are blocking Turkey army in Manbi ..which Turkey tanks were advancing in that direction ,but they blocked it.. So Turkey is taking the easier zones first with less resitance.. and perhaps fortify positions.. later..
In summary there is no agreement at all.. Kurds and Syrian army are fighting Turkey and Erdogan is feeling now the Pressure to stop advancing.. Even when he knows that delays ,will only help the Kurds and Syria to mobilize and bring forward heavier equipment.. Basically Erdogan is trying to imitate Hitler Blitzkrieg tactics.. because again TIME is everything ,if you want to minimize loses.. Now after 5 days cease of fire /no advance only hold positions.. he will face much more stronger resistance in northen Syria ,because more equipment will be aiming Turkey positions.. There are senators asking for kicking Turkey from NATO.. already..
So Americans are increasing the Pressure on erdogan ,not lowering it.. and Turkey soldiers are dying . So no way you can "Stage" or fake a conflict like that ..with Turkey soldiers dying in the front line.. Turkey losing armor and their resources are limited.. Im sure that Syrian army will have prefference to take IDLIB FIRST that is closer to Latakia , because if Turkey capture latakia will be game over for Syrian state.. also from IDLIB they can shell with rocket artillery the Russian base.. So strategically speaking the zones next to Latakkia will be a major priority for Russia.. and Syria army.. because Turkey 30km border they want to create east of euphrates will be a shooting target practice for the Kurds and Syrian army artillery. Specially when Russia provide long range artillery to the Syrian army .
so is a bleeding strategy , Attrition war ,their goal.. so don't be confused Turkey can capture territory , and will not face major battles in a frontal attack.. but their positions will be shelled constantly and armor ambushed... as i said they will be unsustainable .Can Turkey capture with full army power all Syria ? or Only North ? absolutely yes to both... But can they hold those territories ? absolutely no. Specially North Syria ,because US and Europe support kurds and so Turkey will face a vietnam there in kundistan that will force them to eventually leave entirely Syria.. when the economy of Turkey Sinks totally and Erdogan popularity collapse.
Turkey will never had the economy to hold those lands... and after Erdogan threatened Europe with sending millions of refugees.. you bet Europe will be personally arming Kurds to fight Turkey ..but so Americans will do it too.. The only way Erdogan can hold any position they capture is that they over RUN damascus and over run Russian base. which they can do.. since Russia force is very small there.. but later Russia can totally destroy Turkey economy from the rear side..from the black sea with its airforce. will lose all their planes and warships to Russian airforce and Russian navy.
Not even Americans can win in an attrition war and hold in afganistan.. what makes you think Turkey can hold territories they capture ,if Turkey put under major economic sanctions by US ,Europe and maybe Russia too.. ERdogan is doing a fatal mistake in underestimating the economics side of war.. and an attrition war. He risk a major civil war /color revolution in Turkey ,by invading Europe and US backed Kurds..
Imagine if hitler took 5 days of cease of fire ,after they invaded the first city of western front Russia?
Delays after you started an invasion ,only give time to the other side to regroup and bring more reinforcements. means more casualties for their soldiers.. They know this.. but the diplomatic and economic pressure of US forced them to a cease of fire.
Russia, the US and Turkey all had this thing co-ordinated in advance. Everything else was theatre. .
LOL.. Not really..
There are kurds dying in the hundreds.. and killing turks too ,but casualties favor Turkey ,and Turkey is creating new positions in IDLIB. There is no new agreements at all ,between Turkey and Russia.. This is Erdogan under pressure forcing to stop.. and Americans in change will have 5 days to convince Kurds to retreat from their own lands to avoid being killed..
So US is doing exactly what i was expecting them to do..
1)They will not fight Turkey.. 2)And they will be forced to leave..
What i did not mentioned ,was that US was going to sanction Turkey.. is just small details.. But there is a major split in diplomacy between US and Turkey over Northern Syria and the americans are trying to Earn some time ,with this new "Cease of fire" so try to convince KURDS to not fight Turkey.. which they will have a real problem in convincing them.... they feel betrayed..
And the Syrian army is doing what i was expecting.. to Focus in the Area of IDLIB ,to BLOCK Turkey from Capturing very important zones.. The positions of Syrian army priority is to encircle IDLIB ,to take control of all Turkey Border in IDLIB SIde and close /encircle all IDLIB from Syrian border.. While at same time.. helping Kurds to hold Turkey advance..
Your confusion is because you don't understand the concept of Attrition war.. This is how Russia fought in Syria.. and how Russia defeated napoleon.. they even allowed NAPOLEON to enter moscow ,to not face frontally a much more powerful army.. of NAPOLEON.. So Syrian army is fighting a guerrilla style war /Hit and RUN, and Bleed the Turkey army in the fight.. Time is against Turkey , because will be under sanctions and the more time Turkey operation last in Syria.. the worse the popularity of erdogan will be.. So there is Rush to push Turkey out.. what is important is to create major logistic problems to Turkey operation.. to make it expensive any advance.. that is a flexible elastic war.. where holding a line is not that important.. but to continue fighting without suffering casualties or few ones IS what counts.. Again is time the key in Russia and Syria strategy.. they are blocking Turkey army in Manbi ..which Turkey tanks were advancing in that direction ,but they blocked it.. So Turkey is taking the easier zones first with less resitance.. and perhaps fortify positions.. later..
In summary there is no agreement at all.. Kurds and Syrian army are fighting Turkey and Erdogan is feeling now the Pressure to stop advancing.. Even when he knows that delays ,will only help the Kurds and Syria to mobilize and bring forward heavier equipment.. Basically Erdogan is trying to imitate Hitler Blitzkrieg tactics.. because again TIME is everything ,if you want to minimize loses.. Now after 5 days cease of fire /no advance only hold positions.. he will face much more stronger resistance in northen Syria ,because more equipment will be aiming Turkey positions.. There are senators asking for kicking Turkey from NATO.. already..
So Americans are increasing the Pressure on erdogan ,not lowering it.. and Turkey soldiers are dying . So no way you can "Stage" or fake a conflict like that ..with Turkey soldiers dying in the front line.. Turkey losing armor and their resources are limited.. Im sure that Syrian army will have prefference to take IDLIB FIRST that is closer to Latakia , because if Turkey capture latakia will be game over for Syrian state.. also from IDLIB they can shell with rocket artillery the Russian base.. So strategically speaking the zones next to Latakkia will be a major priority for Russia.. and Syria army.. because Turkey 30km border they want to create east of euphrates will be a shooting target practice for the Kurds and Syrian army artillery. Specially when Russia provide long range artillery to the Syrian army .
so is a bleeding strategy , Attrition war ,their goal.. so don't be confused Turkey can capture territory , and will not face major battles in a frontal attack.. but their positions will be shelled constantly and armor ambushed... as i said they will be unsustainable .Can Turkey capture with full army power all Syria ? or Only North ? absolutely yes to both... But can they hold those territories ? absolutely no. Specially North Syria ,because US and Europe support kurds and so Turkey will face a vietnam there in kundistan that will force them to eventually leave entirely Syria.. when the economy of Turkey Sinks totally and Erdogan popularity collapse.
Turkey will never had the economy to hold those lands... and after Erdogan threatened Europe with sending millions of refugees.. you bet Europe will be personally arming Kurds to fight Turkey ..but so Americans will do it too.. The only way Erdogan can hold any position they capture is that they over RUN damascus and over run Russian base. which they can do.. since Russia force is very small there.. but later Russia can totally destroy Turkey economy from the rear side..from the black sea with its airforce. will lose all their planes and warships to Russian airforce and Russian navy.
Not even Americans can win in an attrition war and hold in afganistan.. what makes you think Turkey can hold territories they capture ,if Turkey put under major economic sanctions by US ,Europe and maybe Russia too.. ERdogan is doing a fatal mistake in underestimating the economics side of war.. and an attrition war. He risk a major civil war /color revolution in Turkey ,by invading Europe and US backed Kurds..
Imagine if hitler took 5 days of cease of fire ,after they invaded the first city of western front Russia?
Delays after you started an invasion ,only give time to the other side to regroup and bring more reinforcements. means more casualties for their soldiers.. They know this.. but the diplomatic and economic pressure of US forced them to a cease of fire.
Once again, look at the map.
Do you think it's a coincidence that Russia/Syria and the Kurds agreed exactly where the SAA would be deployed; and to exactly skip covering that middle section where the SDF is intensely fighting now? This was their agreement from the beggining. The SAA has barely had any skirmishes with the Turks thus far. Erdogan has repriciotated with his complete lack of criticism for Russia and the SAA so far; and has stated that he doesn't view the SAA's presence in Kobani and Manbij as a problem. The Russian presence is extremely light - in the case of Manbij it encompasses all of 3 Russian military police Tigr-M's, with their AGS-17 grenade launchers and anti-IED jammers. They're there to prevent clashes between the SAA and the Turkish Army - that's it, and they've said themselves as much.
And now the US and Turkey have established a ceasefire for exactly that region; 5 days of no fighting to give the Kurds time to withdraw completely from there. This ceasefire encompasses the same conditions that the US presented to the SDF on the eve of the Turkish invasion. The SDF commander refused, and dialed up the Russians instead. The Russians came in, and basically offered him the same deal, albeit with stronger guarantees in the way of the SAA coming in to take positions on the border. Allegedly Russia also promised a no-fly zone; yet haven't explicitly delivered on that thus far at least.
Turkey is in a commanding position, and had communicated their plans to the US and Russia in advance. In Russia's case, well in advance - it was all of 3 weeks ago that Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani met in their regular format.
The Syrian government may have its own view on things, and everything, but so far they're going along exactly according to Russia's direction. I don't exclude that that can change and they may start having ideas of their own, but so far I don't see it. As for the Kurds dying in high numbers - no-one's bothered. They're a pawn that have outlived their usefulness for their former patrons and are now in the middle of getting shafted by every side. First it was ISIS, now it's the SDF's turn. They'll be lucky I think to come out of this without all their leaders being arrested and disbanded by force. But I think they've got a chance. They have to play things smart and cool, rather than making desperate last stands; attempt to exploit even small differences of opinion between the greater powers, and demonstrate that they're useful and willing to play along to Russia and the SAA. They're stronger than many realise - they have a large military force, defend tenaciously, and have something of a grassroots internationale behind them all throughout the Western world, who organize aid and constant protests, media awareness. However, Turkey is stronger anyway, and will obliterate them and turn everyone else against them, if they fail to get their political game up.
This is why I'm saying that what we're seeing now is a theatre. Everyone's playing the same game and most things have been decided upon ahead of time.
Last edited by flamming_python on Fri Oct 18, 2019 5:33 am; edited 7 times in total
If they were manned by Russian soldiers you would think they would notice their flag was upside down and fix it.
As I said before... if I was a Syrian soldier going in there I would use the most effective camouflage I could. The American flag or the Turkish flag would get me shot by my allies. The Syrian flag makes me fair game for the americans and turks and ISIS, with the Russian flag the turks and americans will go out of their way to avoid having to fire on me... obviously if I fire at them they will of course fire back, but as long as I don't do anything stupid I should only have ISIS to worry about.
Isos wrote:They were recently sent to Syria by Russia.
And?
They had the opportunity to put Arena on it and kontact 5 when they were preparing the tanks for Syria. That would be tested successfully (because seeing how things go on those tanks will be used soon) and offered for export.
APS will be standard for every tank and there are many t-72 out there to upgrade. It just a matter of time before Israeli offer their own APS for the t-72 and get the market for them.
Meanwhile on the diplomatic front, whilst the US makes all the publicity quietly in the background Russian operatives move around. As both countries show, there is nothing like face to face contact.
Yörük Işık Verified account @YorukIsik 14h14 hours ago
Russia’s parallel diplomacy: Hours before @VP flew to Ankara, RussianAirForce Tupolev 134AK brought Putin’s Envoy to #Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev to Ankara Esenboğa from Iran. Before arriving to Ankara, Lavrentiev flew from Moscow Chkalovsky to Tehran to keep Astana process alive
Yörük Işık Verified account @YorukIsik 57m57 minutes ago
RussianAirForce Tupolev 134AK climbed out of Ankara Esenboğa with Putin’s Special Envoy to #Syria Alexander Lavrentiev on board. Following his meetings in Tehran & Ankara, Lavrentiev might be heading to Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
A couple of takes on what the US/Turkey agreement implies.
Military Advisor @miladvisor 9h9 hours ago
It’s more correct to say about 150 km wide safe zone and 5 days for the SAA to be deployed to NE Syria.
-- GEROMAN -- @GeromanAT 14h14 hours ago
That is what I think will happen: SAA / Russia will move in in the red parts - and Turkey will stay (for a while) in the blue zone. - Everything else would cause a big fat NO from the involved parties.
But then is there actually a ceasefire on the ground?
Hoshang Hasan(New) @HesenHoseng 2h2 hours ago
The Ceasefire only in press releases. #Turkey and its factions continue to bombard #Serêkaniyê /Ras Al-ayn. #Rojava #StandUp4Rojava #KurdishGenocide
Last edited by JohninMK on Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:12 am; edited 1 time in total
JohninMK wrote:But then is there actually a ceasefire on the ground?
Hoshang Hasan(New) @HesenHoseng 2h2 hours ago
The Ceasefire only in press releases. #Turkey and its factions continue to bombard #Serêkaniyê /Ras Al-ayn. #Rojava #StandUp4Rojava #KurdishGenocide
Yup that tweet's completely true, fighting continuing in Ras Al-ayn, YPG/YPJ contingent there completely surrounded and beseiged.
Just an hour ago civil activists from the SDF attempted to organize a humanitarian convoy to the city, but it looks like it came under artillery fire https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/djlyue/a_civilian_humanitarian_convoy_of_reportedly_80/ https://twitter.com/lapinesque/status/1185122145468329984?s=20
Yesterday there was another one, but it was met with firepower and had to turn back
Pretty naive to try and break an Islamist paramilitary blockade with a civilian convoy, but I guess the fighters in the city and their supporters are desperate.
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