Syrian War: News #20

The simple logic of the situation for Yanks has become clear.  Two is bigger than one. Four is bigger than two. Turkey is bigger ( prize) than independent Kurdistan. Although the yank 's eyes are bigger than their stomochs. And they try to eat and digest the entire world. They can not stomach it.

Unless Turks leave NATO or there is revolution or coup. Then Yanks will side with kurds again. But this will not yet happen. And we can safely assume that the Yanks have seen the light. No more guns for SDF.

But again the Yanks are greedy. They are like the old Romans. Holding food orgies. And vomiting after over eating. Having vomatoriums.

Detailed tour of Manbij base (11 minutes)

A coup in Turkey would make little difference... no political party in Turkey can accept having 3 million Syrian refugees, so they need a place to send them... if it is not a part of Syria then it will be the EU.

Equally no political party in Turkey will accept a Kurd run neighbour because the kurds claim parts of Iraq and Iran and Turkey as well as parts of Syria, so giving them Syria is not an end, but a beginning that can only move forward with terrorism and violence until they are either destroyed or get what they want... which is a big slice of Turkey and Syria and Iraq and Iran.

Can't see any of those countries happy with that.

A coup in Turkey would make little difference... no political party in Turkey can accept having 3 million Syrian refugees, so they need a place to send them... if it is not a part of Syria then it will be the EU.

Erdogan doesn't care about the refugees. He is using them like a weapon to expend its territories by replacing kurds with its militia's families.

JohninMK wrote:

Isos wrote:

A coup in Turkey would make little difference... no political party in Turkey can accept having 3 million Syrian refugees, so they need a place to send them... if it is not a part of Syria then it will be the EU.

Erdogan doesn't care about the refugees. He is using them like a weapon to expend its territories by replacing kurds with its militia's families.

Indeed, from what I have read he hasn't settled moved many of them to Afrin. So not too big a problem.

There are "reports" of armenian families beug removed from their homes.

Is it safe to say that most of the ISIS terrorists and families are going to end up in Europe?

par far wrote:Is it safe to say that most of the ISIS terrorists and families are going to end up in Europe?

They were a NATO project to begin with. You can see this from their origins and from their agenda. Obama supposedly bombed
them for two years but they kept on growing. Only when Russia actually did bomb them, e.g. their oil convoys to Turkey and Iraq
that gave them the cash flow, did they start to lose. At the same time the yanquis bombed SAA forces in "mistakes" clearly
designed to help ISIS.

So as with Ukr nazis, ISIS will find shelter in the bosom of the west.

Erdogan doesn't care about the refugees. He is using them like a weapon to expend its territories by replacing kurds with its militia's families.

I never said he did care... they are a problem for him and he wants to get rid of them. Sending them back to Syria is his solution of choice but if he keeps getting shit from his NATO and EU allies he might just as well send them to the EU.

It seems that for the Turks ethnic cleansing is a way of life.

Ask the Serbs... perhaps if they had actually done what they were accused of they might still have Kosovo as a Serbian province instead of an enclave of Albania.

Is it safe to say that most of the ISIS terrorists and families are going to end up in Europe?

Depends who gets their way... if Erdogan gets his way they will end up in a corridor between turkey and kurdish controlled Syria... though I can't see that lasting very long, but I suspect Turkey will simply close its border and tell them they are on their own now they are "home". To be financially viable they will need to expand south to get some oil fields of their own which means fighting with the Kurds... with the US and therefore also France and Germany and any other EU special forces teams there they can't really help much so the Kurds will look to Assad, and Assad will demand one Syria with perhaps Kurdish autonomous regions that they can control to a certain level but Syrian army troops with control borders etc etc... and together I suspect they will be happy to take back that corridor... currently being held by ISIS and their families and supporters.

The final result could be semi autonomy for some kurds in some places, but a return of most of syrian territory except the golan heights... which might be next.

Only when Russia actually did bomb them, e.g. their oil convoys to Turkey and Iraq that gave them the cash flow, did they start to lose.

Exactly... the token bombing from Obama was likely against groups that would not fight assad, but they didn't touch the lucrative oil convoys that were paying for ISIS and their weapons and support. Even when Obama sent in troops it was mostly to secure the oilfields... like they did in Iraq... screw the people... make sure those oilfields are captured and secured first... who cares about museums and things of cultural value to the region and the world... I am sure the war freed up some valuable pieces that went straight into some very rich westerners collections...

So as with Ukr nazis, ISIS will find shelter in the bosom of the west.

When Assad and Russia and Iran and the Kurds start rounding them up of course most will flee to Turkey and Turkey will pass them on to the EU because they don't want them either...

There's absolutely no reason for Russia to grant any sort of 'corridor' to Erdogan. It can be argued that Putin owes Erdogan one, for getting the US out of there - but then again such an enclave would be a beardie breeding ground and unacceptable for Syria's security, and ultimately Russia's.
Same as Idlib and North Aleppo, which is still held by Turkish-sponsored Islamists, despite all previous Russo-Turkish agreements. And still being bombed actively by Russia for that matter. In the run-up to Tuesday's Erdo-Putin meeting, the bombing has been especially active actually.
Iran too has held military exercises on Turkey's borders over the last few days. None too subtle.

The Kurds are a capable and natural ally against the Turkish-sponsored Islamists; actually one can't ask for a better ally in these circumstances. Their sellout US-sponsored leadership is irrelevant; these fighting units exist on the ground and are already fighting side-by-side with the SAA. Not only the currently occupied zone, but also Afrin and Idlib have to be liberated. DEZ too, as it seems that the local military council there is rebelling against the agreement and refusing to let the SAA and Russians in; well these are the same Arab tribes there that were at the heart of ISIS territory, so little surprise. That territory might have to be conquered for a 2nd time.

Russia giving any further 'zone' to Turkey and its terrorists would be a betrayal of Syria. It doesn't matter if Turkey offers to buy another air-defence system, as they just did a few days ago in a bid to 'sweeten the deal'. The Saudis and Qataris in their time also promised Russia billions of dollars in arms contracts if it would abandon Assad. But it didn't, because there can be no negotiation on these strategic issues. You don't abandon allies, and whatever deals you're promised for it can always be withdrawn anyway; the respect and reliability you lose would be worth far more than any arms contract and you'll certainly not be getting any more of them in the future. Instead you'll end up as a laughing stock just like Trump has and will end up withdrawing from the Middle East with your tail between your legs as the US military is currently doing.
"You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war."

Turkey has been completely internationally isolated now like no-one else over its ethnic cleansing plans. It doesn't have any leverage. Cancel gas transit contracts? Nigga please, not like Turkey doesn't need that as much as Russia does. It's also not going to exit NATO if Russia tells their leader that he can have what he wants. It will exit NATO after NATO abandons it to face Russia alone; which is exactly what it will do; because there is no appetite in Europe and the US to feed Erdo's ambitions. Turkish ambitions and sentiments will cool down, they'll assess their situation; having achieved little and become the bogeyman of the entire Western world - and then they'll make their decisions.
Maybe the only thing it can do is threaten to offer up the S-400 system for examination to NATO experts; but whatever, we'll get over it (not Putin's best decision to have sold it to them).

Putin at the meeting will offer Erdogan the Adana agreement. If he doesn't accept, he can piss off. And in the case of no such deal, he better take it well and pretend otherwise and not come back demanding assistance from Washington and NATO, otherwise he'd be the next international laughing stock.
If he tries to occupy Idlib with the regular army in response; call the UN Security Council and tell him to get out of Syria in no uncertain terms.

JohninMK wrote:

Isos wrote:

A coup in Turkey would make little difference... no political party in Turkey can accept having 3 million Syrian refugees, so they need a place to send them... if it is not a part of Syria then it will be the EU.

Erdogan doesn't care about the refugees. He is using them like a weapon to expend its territories by replacing kurds with its militia's families.

Indeed, from what I have read he hasn't settled moved many of them to Afrin. So not too big a problem.

He has made sure to ethnically cleanse the Kurds from there though; that place has been emptied out.

The currently occupied towns from the new Turkish offensive have also been emptied out; thousands of locals have fled, and apparently 'new arrivals' are already moving in.

These are Kurdish reports so take with a pinch of salt, but based on the photos I've seen of apparent atrocities and fleeing civilians..

I rather suspect Turkey cares very little about these refugees on its territory and actually wants a corridor in Syria so it has a place it can dump them.

They will likely then retreat to the Turkish border and reinforce the border 1000x, with the warning that it is now a closed border and there will be no refugees accepted or anyone else and all traffic from Syria will be considered terrorists or their supporters (which wont be far from the truth anyway), and will be fired upon.

When Assad and Russia together with the Kurds go in to this corridor Turkey will do nothing at all if Assad and Russia and Iran promise that the corridor will be an anti Kurd area so no armed Kurdish forces will be allowed along that strip of land to make Turkey feel safer. It will all be Syria. Nothing else is acceptable to Assad I would suspect.

GarryB wrote:I rather suspect Turkey cares very little about these refugees on its territory and actually wants a corridor in Syria so it has a place it can dump them.

They will likely then retreat to the Turkish border and reinforce the border 1000x, with the warning that it is now a closed border and there will be no refugees accepted or anyone else and all traffic from Syria will be considered terrorists or their supporters (which wont be far from the truth anyway), and will be fired upon.

Tough shit. It took them in, took others in from around the world too, armed them, formed ISIS, formed the FSA and all the rest of these beardie fucks - and now it can damn well keep them.
Here you can hear it from one of the horse's mouths: https://twitter.com/i/status/1185848367672369153

Those Syrian refugees in Turkey are ISIS, FSA supporters and others that called for Sharia law and managed to escape from Syria before the SAA/Russia and Kurds/Coalition conquered their territories.

What Erdo should really do is grant them all Turkish citizenship. He wants to build an Islamic republic, does he not? Guaranteed extra couple million votes for him. I don't care what Erdogan does in Turkey. It's sad, but only the Turkish people can stop it and only they really have the right to stop it.

When Assad and Russia together with the Kurds go in to this corridor Turkey will do nothing at all if Assad and Russia and Iran promise that the corridor will be an anti Kurd area so no armed Kurdish forces will be allowed along that strip of land to make Turkey feel safer. It will all be Syria. Nothing else is acceptable to Assad I would suspect.

No armed Kurdish forces will be needed after this whole fucked up war finishes; I suspect they'll be happy to willingly disband then in return for security and their rights being respected.
Erdogan is the only outside power still illegally there occupying territory. From a strip of northern Latakia, through Idlib, to northern Aleppo and Afrin, and all the way to the 'safe zone' that he's now trying to conquer; it's all one continous strip of north Syria; filled with Turkish observation posts manned by Turkish military and functioning as redoubts.
And it's time to deal with it once and for all, and with every force and local militia that we can enlist for the task. No gentlemen's agreements will work; he's pulling an Israel - even worse actually - as he's colonizing this strip of land with all the Islamist dregs of the world.
Are Poutine's little arms deals, dreams of dividing NATO (Erdogan has done that much more effectively than Putin already), and gas pipelines worth Syrian sovereignty, an expanding humanitarian and refugee crisis that Syria cannot cope with, and a Turkish-secured Islamist haven?
No, this is a fundamental threat. And it will be used in the future as a springboard or recruiting base for further expansion.

Really the biggest problem is that while Idlib and North Aleppo have been rebel ground since the beginning of the civil war - here Erdogan is trying to build a brand new zone by invading Syria directly and grabbing even more land. Nip it in the bud, before it's secured.

Otherwise what was it all for? Why have Russians been fighting there for 4 years? Why has the Syrian Army been fighting for the last 9 years? If there are terrorists left in Syria, they must be eliminated.

It seems there are less and less iranians in Syria since US left the area. Part of a secret deal with the russians ?

Interesting..
Angry Kurds insulting and throwing potatoes to American Troops leaving North syria..




Trump is doing the right thing.. Those kurds were being warned many times ,they will be betrayed..
By US when they no longer need..but their greed for power and land ,made them byte the hand
that was feeding them.. Not long ago , Kurds attacked the army Oil trucks ,they are opportunist and are partly responsible
for the war in Syria.. Some of their leaders collaborated with US and Turkey and ISIS  against Syria..
So Kurds were betrayed by US and Turkey..and some of their leaders too..

Tough shit. It took them in, took others in from around the world too, armed them, formed ISIS, formed the FSA and all the rest of these beardie fucks - and now it can damn well keep them.
Here you can hear it from one of the horse's mouths: https://twitter.com/i/status/1185848367672369153

I don't disagree, what I am saying is that he is getting rid of his problem by taking advantage of the problems in Syria... it is his action that got the Americans to leave so first of all lets say thank you to him for that service because as long as the oil was pumping the Americans were going to be staying.

His dealing with the problem basically shifts the issue from his ledger sheet to Assads. But then it is inside Syrian territorial borders so it was always going to be his problem ultimately unless he ended up like Gadaffi.

Turkey was only part of the international team that created this monster... personally I would say give these bastards fake IDs and fake green cards and see if you can send them to the US where they can continue their jihad.

Those Syrian refugees in Turkey are ISIS, FSA supporters and others that called for Sharia law and managed to escape from Syria before the SAA/Russia and Kurds/Coalition conquered their territories.

Agree again... solution above still applies.

What Erdo should really do is grant them all Turkish citizenship. He wants to build an Islamic republic, does he not? Guaranteed extra couple million votes for him. I don't care what Erdogan does in Turkey. It's sad, but only the Turkish people can stop it and only they really have the right to stop it.

But does he... that is what I am saying... the invasion of Syria is not about expanding Turkey or creating a new ottoman empire... it reminds me of all the shit they say about Putin wanting to recreate the Soviet union and invade Europe... it is just unfounded bullshit.
Ultimately these people should be sent either to Saudi Arabia... their ideal already made islamic republic, or they could go to the US which can be considered a potential islamic republic... already half way there.... a sort of fixer upper.

No armed Kurdish forces will be needed after this whole fucked up war finishes; I suspect they'll be happy to willingly disband then in return for security and their rights being respected.

Without that Turkish incursion and with US troops still present that would not have been an option...

No gentlemen's agreements will work; he's pulling an Israel - even worse actually - as he's colonizing this strip of land with all the Islamist dregs of the world.

But to what end... filling it up with the dregs as you say is concentrating his problems outside of Turkish territory. I doubt he will lift a finger to support these people when Assad moves to assert his authority over that piece of Syrian territory.

He has basically set them up for a fall... they will end up in Syrian jails and not Turkish refugee camps.

It seems there are less and less iranians in Syria since US left the area. Part of a secret deal with the russians ?

Glad you didn't say Russian hackers. Why does it need to be anything to do with the Russians?

If those Iranians were only there because the Americans were there it makes sense that when the Americans leave so too would the Iranians.

Those kurds were being warned many times ,they will be betrayed..

Any group knows that if they accept help for an internal matter from an outside power that eventually that outside power might stop caring and leave you, and it pretty much makes you a stupid pawn in a bigger game... the US doesn't care about kurdistan... they wanted to hit Assad and they failed and now they are leaving. All the thousands of people killed and tortured and with their houses destroyed and now living in rubble are just a byproduct of the US playing games in the Middle East... specifically Obama and his bitches this time, but Clintons and various Bushes before that.

Trump is now saying he’s leaving troops to the East to protect the oil.

ABC News Australia: Kurds angry as Trump says some US troops may stay in Syria to 'secure the oil'

Germany now is proposing an international coalition Germany troops ,Russia and turkey on it..
to create the safe zone in north of Syria and to continue the fight against ISIS ..whatever that means..
it could be interesting if their goal is to really help end the war and better if they drop the sanctions on Syria..
only time will tell..

crod wrote:Trump is now saying he’s leaving troops to the East to protect the oil.

ABC News Australia: Kurds angry as Trump says some US troops may stay in Syria to 'secure the oil'

Well when an imperial power betrays it's own declared principles/ideology, all that's left  it's plain to see are it's naked self interests that were underpinning said 'values' the whole time.

Look at the bigger picture. It's not the US that emerges as a honest, reliable and respectful partner in international politics - it's Russia.

Trump just admitted the US in in Syria for oil. The whole world hears that. Did the last 8 years of fighting for freedom and democracy just evaporate?

Welp, Russia capitulated to the Turks on Syrian sovereignty. Looks like Turkey will be settling its refugees in the zone they claimed too, as there's no mention of withdrawing from there and there was all this talk of returning refugees at the presser. People fled from there in their tens, hundreds of thousands - where are they supposed to be resettled?
10km Russian-Turkish patrols. That covers all the Kurd's cities and villages essentially. No way they'll trust Russian MPs after this; such patrols will endanger them now.
Kurds got royally screwed over. And I know their leadership are a bunch of dumb fks. They are still Syrian citizens and need to be returned to their homes and provided security for.
Russia has moved from being a potential mediator, to an accomplice.

https://twitter.com/ynms79797979/status/1186693533144698881?s=20

A more shameful orgy of imperialism I haven't seen in my whole life, compared to these past 2 weeks.

https://www.interfax.ru/russia/681375

http://www.kremlin.ru/supplement/5452

Auslander

Russia's imperial interests are also now clear to see. Granted, it never professed any principles in the first place; but one could at least expect it to back an ally and it's sovereignty ahead of all other considerations.

Already news about Su-35 possible contract: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2019/10/22/glava-fsvts-s-turciey-pervym-delom-su-35-a-su-57-potom
Earlier today (before end of negotiations), was talk about additional S-400 systems: https://rns.online/industry/V-Rossii-rasskazali-o-peregovorah-s-Turtsiei-po-S-400-2019-10-22/

The additional S-400's were actually hinted at by Turkey a few days before, and the next day (19th October) the Russians said that "highly likely the prospect of a new S-400 contract"
https://ria.ru/20191019/1559979421.html

Erdogan knows how to sweeten the deal, and Putin took the bribe. Who loses? Syria.

GarryB wrote:I don't disagree, what I am saying is that he is getting rid of his problem by taking advantage of the problems in Syria... it is his action that got the Americans to leave so first of all lets say thank you to him for that service because as long as the oil was pumping the Americans were going to be staying.

Should the USSR also have told thank you to Nazi Germany after it helped the USSR in 1939 take back territories lost to Poland in 1920?
Well it probably did tell it thank you. We all know how that went.

I don't argue the need for concessions on some points to satisfy Turkish security concerns, but there are red lines. Idlib and N. Aleppo are less a priority than the territories that Erdogan has just seized and is bartering on.

His dealing with the problem basically shifts the issue from his ledger sheet to Assads. But then it is inside Syrian territorial borders so it was always going to be his problem ultimately unless he ended up like Gadaffi.

Well Putin has apparently just demonstrated that Assad is a nobody, given that 2 outside powers are making deals on matters of Syrian sovereignty, the negotiations went on for 6 hours instead of 3, which might suggest that the positions didn't match and Russia ended up retreating from its original position.

There was a statement by the Russian MFA 2 days prior that Turkey should re-open its embassy in Damascus and deal with security agreements with Assad directly. That seemed like a wise move, shame it wasn't employed. Perhaps Erdogan told Putin to cut the crap, and Putin went along with it and decided to carve up a foreign country personally after all.

Turkey was only part of the international team that created this monster... personally I would say give these bastards fake IDs and fake green cards and see if you can send them to the US where they can continue their jihad.

They're the only part of that international team that are still in Syria and still matter.
The rest have already fucked off with nothing. So should Turkey.

But does he... that is what I am saying... the invasion of Syria is not about expanding Turkey or creating a new ottoman empire... it reminds me of all the shit they say about Putin wanting to recreate the Soviet union and invade Europe... it is just unfounded bullshit.
Ultimately these people should be sent either to Saudi Arabia... their ideal already made islamic republic, or they could go to the US which can be considered a potential islamic republic... already half way there.... a sort of fixer upper.

Yeah I know, it's a very Turkish negotiation tactic.
Make some outrageous statements, terrorize everyone for a while, and then negotiate down for what you really want.

But still, you let them off the hook - and they'll go as far as they can, if only to secure future leverage. Just like they had no problems supporting ISIS with transit and trade until it became too problematic for them.

That Erdogan is an idealogue and has his own ambitions in the Muslim world though is beyond debate.
Just yesterday India cancelled a +$3 billion military naval deal for Turkish corvettes or some such with Turkey, because Turkey decided to meddle a bit in Kashmir.
Can you imagine Putin jeapordizing such arms deals for some ideological aims half the world away?

Without that Turkish incursion and with US troops still present that would not have been an option...

They would have had to leave sooner or later. They were under Turkish pressure. Russia should have made a deal with America for military passage to take up positions. Then the Americans can steadily withdraw. Trump doesn't look like a clown, and Russia/SAA gets to in before any Islamist occupation occurs. And since its Syrian territory controlled by the Syrian Army; Erdo would have a lot less leverage to do anything.

Well Russia made Trump look like a clown, but it also ended up betraying the people of Syria itself. I doubt the SAA are too happy with this deal either, nor Assad.

But to what end... filling it up with the dregs as you say is concentrating his problems outside of Turkish territory. I doubt he will lift a finger to support these people when Assad moves to assert his authority over that piece of Syrian territory.

They have Turkish observation posts all over the place, serving as redoubts. All heavily fortified rebel lines, supplied with intel, arms, whatever else.

As to what end - irrelevant. Those are Turkish-sponsored rebel areas and they have to go.

He has basically set them up for a fall... they will end up in Syrian jails and not Turkish refugee camps.

What does it matter to Syria what he set them up for or why he did it?