Syrian War: News #20

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PapaDragon wrote:That's the name of the game in 21st century, this is not a news

And I'm under no illusions. But if we don't finish the job, than what has it all been for?

flamming_python wrote:That ally was running CIA black sites as late as 2011 and was trying to pull a ''Baikonur'' with Tartus so let's not lose the sight of how recent this close alliance is

It doesn't matter the past history, Syria is Russia's project - Russia helped ressurect it from the ground-up.

That doesn't mean Syria owes Russia it's sovereignty. Russia has experience with such cynical imperialism; it doesn't work out in the end.

flamming_python wrote:Putin did what was right for Russia (and let's not forget that USSR went tits-up in part because they were more concerned with interests their allies than the very allies in question)

And the more stuff Turkey buys easier it will be to get them to leave Syria once conditions stabilize with everyone involved happy

This only leaves Idlib to be cleared out

If I were Syria I would be pretty damn satisfied with this outcome

What's right for Russia is to finish the job and show that you're the only one in the world who can finish a job. Syria can be left to become a prosperous country. It's a far better investment than any short-term arms deal.

flamming_python wrote:Assad demonstrated himself that he is a nobody the moment his presidential palace was shelled by bunch of jihadist clowns years ago

He's the president of Syria, as Russia itself has been trying to explain to everyone for the past however many years.

Now they're publically showing everyone that in fact only they call the shots. Why would any country bother reopening embassies in Damascus, if they can just call up Moscow and grab a slice of the action in return for some arms deals? Maybe invade a bit of Syria first.
Disgraceful.

PapaDragon wrote:
For the same reason they bother with opening embassies in East Europe or Latin America

You can't close the embassy of a country in Eastern Europe, invade it with terrorists, then grab a chunk of it directly, then call up Washington, and then come up with a 'mutually beneficial' deal with them with you buying some American weapons in return for a piece of that country's future.
I'm almost tempted to say that Trump will go along with that. But even he won't.

Russia has shown nothing other than its impotency and non-commitance to its allies. And Syria seems to be stuck as a dependency, not as a sovereign state.

Russia's imperial interests are also now clear to see. Granted, it never professed any principles in the first place; but one could at least expect it to back an ally and it's sovereignty ahead of all other considerations.

Putin was pretty clear going in... this was about killing ISIS, which included a lot of people from Russia, so killing them in Syria was a means of stopping them ever coming back to Russia to create trouble there. It was also about helping the Syrian people. It was never about Assad, though in this case Assad benefited from the situation.

This agreement mainly effects the Kurds because Assad has no control over the land the Turkish forces have moved in to.

As a byproduct of Turkish moves the US has run away, which is good for all involved except the kurds.

The kurds are interested in themselves and are not allies of Assad or Syria or Russia. Turkey considers them to be terrorists and Russia has no reason to think of them as friends...

Erdogan knows how to sweeten the deal, and Putin took the bribe. Who loses? Syria.

How does Syria lose in this? The land the Turks have moved in to was not occupied by Assad... it was occupied by US supported Kurds... this was about the only practical way of removing them... they would love Assad to try to move them because they love murdering soldiers of third world countries... they have gotten really good at it.

Should the USSR also have told thank you to Nazi Germany after it helped the USSR in 1939 take back territories lost to Poland in 1920?
Well it probably did tell it thank you. We all know how that went.

They didn't refuse to take back that territory at the time or later after the war.

Considering the actions and damage the Nazis did, the Soviets should never apologise to them for anything.

Well Putin has apparently just demonstrated that Assad is a nobody, given that 2 outside powers are making deals on matters of Syrian sovereignty, the negotiations went on for 6 hours instead of 3, which might suggest that the positions didn't match and Russia ended up retreating from its original position.

Assad is not really in a position to negotiate his own deal, and it sounds like he is accepting the deal reached for now so who are we to say there is a problem?

There was a statement by the Russian MFA 2 days prior that Turkey should re-open its embassy in Damascus and deal with security agreements with Assad directly. That seemed like a wise move, shame it wasn't employed. Perhaps Erdogan told Putin to cut the crap, and Putin went along with it and decided to carve up a foreign country personally after all.

Putin is in a much better position to negotiate than Assad... without this agreement Turkey would just be doing what it wanted and could change its plans any time with no rules or restrictions. The US has already run away so there will be no international community outrage and action on this one.

They're the only part of that international team that are still in Syria and still matter.
The rest have already fucked off with nothing. So should Turkey.

Well no... there are still plenty of Americans and French and German special forces in the region... but this Turkish action has undermined the US presence in a way that no Russian or Syrian action could ever hope to achieve without a lot of bloodshed.

But still, you let them off the hook - and they'll go as far as they can, if only to secure future leverage. Just like they had no problems supporting ISIS with transit and trade until it became too problematic for them.

The Americans turned a blind eye to that for years... it was pretty obvious they got money from oil so oilfields would be a natural primary target of any country going in to deal with ISIS. The Russians attacked oil trucks and fields straight away and the effect was dramatic on ISIS.

For the Americans the enemy was Assad and not ISIS so any oil revenue they received was oil revenue Assad was not getting... it was a double whammy.

The same today... they might not be able to cart out the oil in large volumes and benefit from the income but just denying that income from oil to Assad is enough in their eyes to warrant a presence in the region.

Nasty bastards to the last.

That Erdogan is an idealogue and has his own ambitions in the Muslim world though is beyond debate.
Just yesterday India cancelled a +$3 billion military naval deal for Turkish corvettes or some such with Turkey, because Turkey decided to meddle a bit in Kashmir.
Can you imagine Putin jeapordizing such arms deals for some ideological aims half the world away?

Yeah, that is what the west is doing to Russia. Conform to our demands or we will cut you out of our money club.

Turkey can learn lessons from this and so can India. India will hope Turkey learns that a bit of meddling costs them money. Turkey might think that now they lost the contract they can meddle even more in Indian affairs because India is now an enemy that has little financial potential... so it might work or it might backfire.

BTW India buys American products and British and French products and of course they don't interfere anywhere...

They would have had to leave sooner or later. They were under Turkish pressure.

And without that pressure they would not be leaving. Russia and Iran and Assad have no way of pressuring the US to leave Syria like Turkey does.

Russia should have made a deal with America for military passage to take up positions. Then the Americans can steadily withdraw. Trump doesn't look like a clown, and Russia/SAA gets to in before any Islamist occupation occurs. And since its Syrian territory controlled by the Syrian Army; Erdo would have a lot less leverage to do anything.

Trump wants to help Assad less than he wants to help Russia. Why would he care where Turkey sends its troops? He wants to bring the troops home... even though in actual fact they will most likely only cross the border into Iraq anyway.

Well Russia made Trump look like a clown, but it also ended up betraying the people of Syria itself. I doubt the SAA are too happy with this deal either, nor Assad.

Trump makes Trump look like a clown... he communicates directly to the people via Twitter, so there is no filter and no prepared speeches or choreography... just raw moron in all its glory... what else could you expect?

You know Putin... he will have talked through the options with Assad before hand so he will know what he can offer and what is not negotiable.

They have Turkish observation posts all over the place, serving as redoubts. All heavily fortified rebel lines, supplied with intel, arms, whatever else.

And the ground in a 10km radius around each post would be an ideal place to plant Tulips if push ever came to shove...

Those are Turkish-sponsored rebel areas and they have to go.

How long will they last?

You were prepared to wait out US occupation but not turkish supported rebel based occupation?

They will do something stupid and all bets are off.

What does it matter to Syria what he set them up for or why he did it?

The reason it matters is that these people are either the front of an indepth force, or they are the bloody buffer zone that is expendable.

And I'm under no illusions. But if we don't finish the job, than what has it all been for?

This isn't the end... it is a necessary next step.

It's a far better investment than any short-term arms deal.

You keep focusing on the arms deal as if it was Erdogan buying off Putin... perhaps it was part of negotiation where Putin reminded Erdogan that he is pissing off the US and the EU (france and germany have special forces there containing european and western ISIS fighters in Kurdish jails so they can't return home... this Turkish action is basically screwing up their plans too).

These arms sales might be less of a bribe and more of a symbol that Russia is prepared to reward Turkey for cooperation as a comparison with Trump threatening sanctions on the Turkish economy if he doesn't do as he is told.

Why are you underestimating Putin now?

He's the president of Syria, as Russia itself has been trying to explain to everyone for the past however many years.

Putin has been very clear he is supporting the Syrian people against terrorism, if there was a vote tomorrow and Syria voted in a different leader they would not support an armed coup by Assad to retain power... it is not about Assad, it is about Syria and stability... as opposed to the chaos in Libya.

Now they're publically showing everyone that in fact only they call the shots. Why would any country bother reopening embassies in Damascus, if they can just call up Moscow and grab a slice of the action in return for some arms deals? Maybe invade a bit of Syria first.
Disgraceful.

What they are showing is that they don't go public and threaten Erdogan to behave the way they want him to... they talk and negotiate in private to achieve an actual agreement... something that Trump failed to do despite being the leader of the last super power, something Micron failed to do despite being all civilised and european... something Merkel and Johnson didn't even try to do because they have even less power or leverage in this... EU country after another cut military ties with a fellow NATO member but Russia continues to sign deals...

Why would countries need to talk to Assad... he is not really in complete charge of his country, but actions by Iran and Russia mean that there might come a time when he has full charge and can start fixing all the things broken by the US and Europe and yes Turkey too.

You can't close the embassy of a country in Eastern Europe, invade it with terrorists, then grab a chunk of it directly, then call up Washington, and then come up with a 'mutually beneficial' deal with them with you buying some American weapons in return for a piece of that country's future.
I'm almost tempted to say that Trump will go along with that. But even he won't.

Russia has shown nothing other than its impotency and non-commitance to its allies. And Syria seems to be stuck as a dependency, not as a sovereign state.

Putin has managed to make the deal focus on terrorism... currently the Kurds and ISIS are represented as terrorists in Turkey and by Assad.

The future could simply be that the Russian supported Assad based forces move in to Kurdish and ISIS held regions and eliminate the ISIS pockets and then much of the Assad forces withdraw and leave the Kurdish forces to disband and develop with some autonomy, while Assad forces move in to the strip along the Turkish border with the Turkish forces together with Russian forces patrolling to make sure the Kurds don't set up terrorist bases and camps along the Turkish border to cause them problems. Over time it can be relaxed and the Turkish forces withdrawn... give them perhaps 20 years... but while there will be Turkish observation posts it will be Syrian territory with Syrian troops and Syrian laws etc.

GarryB wrote:Putin was pretty clear going in... this was about killing ISIS, which included a lot of people from Russia, so killing them in Syria was a means of stopping them ever coming back to Russia to create trouble there. It was also about helping the Syrian people. It was never about Assad, though in this case Assad benefited from the situation.

Ain't that what Trump has been saying for the past 2 weeks?

Russia hasn't been chased out of the Middle East with its tail between its legs. With a lot of work, it's basically won. There is no reason for it to cut some such deals with Turkey that undermine an ally's sovereignty.

No it wasn't about killing ISIS. Putin tried to entice France and the US into co-operation with that. The real reason he went in is because the US went in already, and the Iranians told him that unless he does, Syria will fall. And so Russia deployed at the request of the Syrian central government, to protect the Syrian state.

This agreement mainly effects the Kurds because Assad has no control over the land the Turkish forces have moved in to.

As a byproduct of Turkish moves the US has run away, which is good for all involved except the kurds.

The kurds are interested in themselves and are not allies of Assad or Syria or Russia. Turkey considers them to be terrorists and Russia has no reason to think of them as friends...

Kurds = Syrian people

I don't judge them harshly. They set up their own statelet after the SAA left that region, and in 2014 were surrounded by ISIS. Russia only entered the fray in 2015 - there was no-one else for them to ally with but the US.

But it's all history. Now the Syrian state has taken control of the region, so its own people are under its own protection. And there can be no other response to this question unless you want to end up as a mickey-mouse state like Iraq now, beset by sectarian conflicts and with different corners influenced by different outside powers. This is what resulted when the US attempted to rebuild a nation.

Besides the area the Turkish-led Islamists have just conquered is more Turkmen than Kurdish. And they're Syrian citizens too, shouldn't have been forced out of their homes, and shouldn't have to return to their homes under Turkish supervision.

When the Turkish intelligence supported independent Chechnya in the 90s; did Russians agree to accept their mediation?

Point is, the Assad should be negotiating these issues themselves direct with Erdogan. With Russian military and political support behind him of course.

If he was a spineless coward; he would have run away when the Qatari's or whoever else wanted him to and offered him a bribe and asylum in some other country. He stayed and protected Syria.

But Assad is declaring his full support for the agreement. This suggests to me that something's up. Maybe he didn't want to meet Erdo himself and give such concessions. Or maybe this agreement won't be followed in spirit.

How does Syria lose in this? The land the Turks have moved in to was not occupied by Assad... it was occupied by US supported Kurds... this was about the only practical way of removing them... they would love Assad to try to move them because they love murdering soldiers of third world countries... they have gotten really good at it.

Let's say you saved my life.
Does that mean you get to come into my house and fuck my spouse?

They didn't refuse to take back that territory at the time or later after the war.

Considering the actions and damage the Nazis did, the Soviets should never apologise to them for anything.

I meant thanking them in 1939.

We'll meet Erdo again sooner or later. Sure of that. Not that he's a threat to Russia like Hitler was of course. But again, if you're going to go all out to protect a country, do it right.

Assad is not really in a position to negotiate his own deal, and it sounds like he is accepting the deal reached for now so who are we to say there is a problem?

The priority is to give him that position. So that we can eventually get out of there, for one thing.

Putin is in a much better position to negotiate than Assad... without this agreement Turkey would just be doing what it wanted and could change its plans any time with no rules or restrictions. The US has already run away so there will be no international community outrage and action on this one.

Well if Putin was decided upon to negotiate and Assad fully agrees with the deal, then I guess there was a reason why Putin is the one doing it at this precise time.

Too many things we don't know.

Well no... there are still plenty of Americans and French and German special forces in the region

"and still matter"

... but this Turkish action has undermined the US presence in a way that no Russian or Syrian action could ever hope to achieve without a lot of bloodshed.

Security of Turkish state and no cross-border escapades - absolutely fine.
Joint-patrols and so on - absolutely fine.
Disarmament of Kurdish militias - fine, once Syria has declared peace across all territory and there are no more threats to its security. Who will accept disarmament while their home is being threatened? If they have to put on SAA uniforms, that's great, but make sure the Islamists don't put on Turkish ones.
No seperatist or some such Kurdish whatever - naturally. But autonomy and internal structure is Syria's business only and matter for its constitution. If Turkey wants to try and angle in a couple guarantees into that constitution, it should present the proposal to Assad.

As for Syrian refugees in Turkey - who's preventing them returning? They have Syrian passports do they not?
Assad should ultimately call some sort of amnesty for anti-regime elements so they can return back to their homes, and reconstruct homes if they have nothing left. Former ISIS should be thrown out of their refuge countries and arrested in Syria, or Turkey can accept them on its own territory. But that's all something for Assad to decide bilaterally with Turkey and other countries with Syrian refugees.

As for some sort of resettlement zone emptied out of its former population and supervised by Turkey - no. Not in NE Syria, not in Idlib, not in north Aleppo.

The Americans turned a blind eye to that for years... it was pretty obvious they got money from oil so oilfields would be a natural primary target of any country going in to deal with ISIS. The Russians attacked oil trucks and fields straight away and the effect was dramatic on ISIS.

For the Americans the enemy was Assad and not ISIS so any oil revenue they received was oil revenue Assad was not getting... it was a double whammy.

The same today... they might not be able to cart out the oil in large volumes and benefit from the income but just denying that income from oil to Assad is enough in their eyes to warrant a presence in the region.

Nasty bastards to the last.

They're no longer relevant. If you strike a good deal with the SDF, the SDF leadership will abandon the Americans in turn. The US can try to turn the local Arabs and make another rebel group; but it won't matter. Iraq has already said that American troops are welcome to transit but not to stay; and such a presence will need a component in Iraq and along the highways, airbases there to be viable.
Only danger is Al-Tanf, which is supported by US assets in Jordan. But they've been contained already and the location is strategically irrelevant.

Yeah, that is what the west is doing to Russia. Conform to our demands or we will cut you out of our money club.

Turkey can learn lessons from this and so can India. India will hope Turkey learns that a bit of meddling costs them money. Turkey might think that now they lost the contract they can meddle even more in Indian affairs because India is now an enemy that has little financial potential... so it might work or it might backfire.

BTW India buys American products and British and French products and of course they don't interfere anywhere...

The problem with Turkey is not with its Kemalist nationalist elements; who control the Army still. There is absolutely no conflict between Russia and Turkey as states; and no-one will benefit from a war between them.
It's with the fact that their leaders create security risks. And then these risks take on a life of their own. They are also hard to predict.

And without that pressure they would not be leaving. Russia and Iran and Assad have no way of pressuring the US to leave Syria like Turkey does.

Yeah I got the plan; albeit unless America's position was untenable they wouldn't be leaving anyway.
Turkey's security interests can be accomodated without infringing on Syria's sovereignty, it must respect the Syrian state or the threat can always return.

Trump wants to help Assad less than he wants to help Russia. Why would he care where Turkey sends its troops? He wants to bring the troops home... even though in actual fact they will most likely only cross the border into Iraq anyway.

And then to Saudi Arabia by reports.

Trump makes Trump look like a clown... he communicates directly to the people via Twitter, so there is no filter and no prepared speeches or choreography... just raw moron in all its glory... what else could you expect?

Hey, he does exactly what he says he'd do. And there's something to respect about that. But abandoning an ally without offering it a contingency even is not worthy of any respect.

You know Putin... he will have talked through the options with Assad before hand so he will know what he can offer and what is not negotiable.

True

How long will they last?

You were prepared to wait out US occupation but not turkish supported rebel based occupation?

They will do something stupid and all bets are off.

The Turks are far smarter than the Americans. They just look dumb.

The reason it matters is that these people are either the front of an indepth force, or they are the bloody buffer zone that is expendable.

Turkey can always offer their rebels to withdraw, or work out a deal with Assad or Russia for establishing peace there.

This isn't the end... it is a necessary next step.

Let's hope.

You keep focusing on the arms deal as if it was Erdogan buying off Putin... perhaps it was part of negotiation where Putin reminded Erdogan that he is pissing off the US and the EU (france and germany have special forces there containing european and western ISIS fighters in Kurdish jails so they can't return home... this Turkish action is basically screwing up their plans too).

These arms sales might be less of a bribe and more of a symbol that Russia is prepared to reward Turkey for cooperation as a comparison with Trump threatening sanctions on the Turkish economy if he doesn't do as he is told.

If it's an arms deal for Russia then it's a reward to Russia.

When Saudi Arabia buys $100 billion worth of American arms, is it the US rewarding the Saudis? Or is it indicative of Saudi's vassalage to the US and their dependence on American bases and political support in return for continued existence of their regime?

Why are you underestimating Putin now?

Perhaps there is more to this whole story.

Putin has been very clear he is supporting the Syrian people against terrorism, if there was a vote tomorrow and Syria voted in a different leader they would not support an armed coup by Assad to retain power... it is not about Assad, it is about Syria and stability... as opposed to the chaos in Libya.

Why underestimate Assad?

It is about the Syria and stability. If at some point the people decide they don't want him, they can tell him so without a bunch of Islamic revolutions funded from abroad.

What they are showing is that they don't go public and threaten Erdogan to behave the way they want him to... they talk and negotiate in private to achieve an actual agreement... something that Trump failed to do despite being the leader of the last super power, something Micron failed to do despite being all civilised and european... something Merkel and Johnson didn't even try to do because they have even less power or leverage in this... EU country after another cut military ties with a fellow NATO member but Russia continues to sign deals...

I'm all for deals, but there are allies and then there are partners. Armenia is an ally. Belarus is an ally. Kazakhstan is an ally. Syria is an ally (de facto). Turkey is a partner, not an ally, and as long as it has this neo-Ottoman goon in power, it will remain so. Iran is also a partner, and his its own agenda and ambitions - but for what concerns Syria it might as well be an ally.
Really, Russia should not be selling the latest in military tech to Turkey. Push comes to shove - not only will those Turkish observation posts be threatened; but Turkey will also be presenting Su-57s and S-400s to US specialists on a platter.

If you want to try to ally with every regime - you'll end up like the US. Overstreched, unable to maintain peace between competing factions you're allied to, and ultimately the situation is going to go haywire and you'll have to leave.

Why would countries need to talk to Assad... he is not really in complete charge of his country, but actions by Iran and Russia mean that there might come a time when he has full charge and can start fixing all the things broken by the US and Europe and yes Turkey too.

With the exit of the US, and Turkey in need of talks - now is a good time.

Putin has managed to make the deal focus on terrorism... currently the Kurds and ISIS are represented as terrorists in Turkey and by Assad.

The Kurds weren't presented as terrorists, although they are perceived as traitors due to their US ties and Israeli contacts. But if I was in their position, I wouldn't have done much different. Regime gone, Turkey next door and a horde of Islamists on the doorstep.
Regardless, it's no longer a factor. If the SAA is on the ground and in control of that territory, then it has a responsibility to protect it.

The future could simply be that the Russian supported Assad based forces move in to Kurdish and ISIS held regions and eliminate the ISIS pockets and then much of the Assad forces withdraw and leave the Kurdish forces to disband and develop with some autonomy, while Assad forces move in to the strip along the Turkish border with the Turkish forces together with Russian forces patrolling to make sure the Kurds don't set up terrorist bases and camps along the Turkish border to cause them problems. Over time it can be relaxed and the Turkish forces withdrawn... give them perhaps 20 years... but while there will be Turkish observation posts it will be Syrian territory with Syrian troops and Syrian laws etc.

It's not Turkish observation posts I have a problem with per say, it's the sort of undesirables that tend to congregate around them.

As for the Kurds, their major towns/settlements are within 5km of the border, nevermind 10km. But I agree, nothing wrong with patrols. It's that whole beardie den next door that Turkey has just set up that worries me.

reality is VVP did nothing but give SehSha the opportunity to destroy itself.

And they are too stupid to realise and too arrogant to admit they did this to themselves because they believed they won the cold war and they are entitled to interfere... and it is amusing to see them go apeshit at the suggestion that anyone might interfere in their elections... as if the whole world does not interfere... look at news reports from the 2016 elections... the only world leader that does not give an opinion and tell Americans who they should be voting for was Putin.

They blame Trump for his hostile irrational behaviour towards NATO and the EU... perhaps it was because he didn't forget they all supported a Hillary win and made fun of the chances of him winning... payback is a bitch... hahaha.

SehSha will never recover from this. SehSha will not end suddenly but the slow spiral to second rate status is clearly visible

Never say never... what they were selling was a good product... but this is what happens when you use too much of your own product...

Someone could win the next election and tell them exactly what is wrong and how it needs to be fixed... enormous far reaching reforms and changes that are necessary to get them back on track... for a start lose the American way bullshit... the path is truth and justice, not lies and revenge. Instead of looking at reasons to put people in jail they should be looking for ways to help them realise the error of their ways and to become good citizens again... sure some might be too far gone... they might have to carpet bomb wall street... but the case where 6 families control all the print, radio, tv, and other media in the country has to stop.

The justice system needs to be about the truth and not just putting someone behind bars to make the stats look good.

The health system needs to work for everyone.

They need to start looking after their military properly and that includes not whoring them out to Saudi Arabia or Israel or Europe when they don't need protecting or can protect themselves well enough. The military has been used as a contract mercenary service to support US big business. US government is designed to serve big business and rich people.

Obviously it is going to be an enormous job but I am not going to say it can't or wont be done... it just needs someone with balls.

Someone who will say to the oil companies that America is not going to subsidise you any more... you need to start paying real tax.

America has enormous tech potential and they are squandering it because of their addiction to oil... they are holding the world back and squeal and impose sanctions on the Chinese for investing in solar panel technology... America should be leading the way by example and instead they are looking back at those following behind them trying to slow them down rather than looking forward leading the way.

Africa and Asia and central and south America will all look to China and Russia because they are not trying to hold them back they are happy for those countries to grow and develop.

There is no reason for it to cut some such deals with Turkey that undermine an ally's sovereignty.

The land it sold out is not and was not going to be in Assads possession... he would have had to have fought the kurds and therefore also the Americans to get it which was not going to happen.

Kurds = Syrian people

That could easily turn on you over night... this situation actually makes the Kurds appreciate Assad and the Russians rather more than they did previously when they were shouting obscenities from under Americas dress hem.

I don't judge them harshly. They set up their own statelet after the SAA left that region, and in 2014 were surrounded by ISIS. Russia only entered the fray in 2015 - there was no-one else for them to ally with but the US.

Blame the British and the French... at the end of WWII there were no countries in this region... the area was occupied by british and french and german forces and after WWI the whole area was divided up by the two countries... and they didn't give a shit about political or cultural groupings... they just divided up the known oil reserves.

This is what resulted when the US attempted to rebuild a nation.

They don't rebuild nations... they smash it down and see what grows back and then tries to control it with promises of aide to rebuild the damage they did.

When the Turkish intelligence supported independent Chechnya in the 90s; did Russians agree to accept their mediation?

Not sure I understand the relevance except that they interfered in an internal problem in Russia.

Point is, the Assad should be negotiating these issues themselves direct with Erdogan. With Russian military and political support behind him of course.

Why, do you think Assad would have gotten a better deal?

Like it or not it is Russia that has all the levers that work on Erdogan... from gas pipelines and military equipment sales on better terms, Putin was the best person to bang out this agreement... and if Assad was not happy he can always say no... and from what I have read he is happy with it for now... and that is important too... this is the best solution for now. In time different conditions might start becoming an option or preferable to both sides.

If he was a spineless coward; he would have run away when the Qatari's or whoever else wanted him to and offered him a bribe and asylum in some other country. He stayed and protected Syria.

I am not suggesting he is a coward. I am suggesting he does not hold any significant strings attached to anything of value in Turkey that would influence Erdogan in any useful way.

But Assad is declaring his full support for the agreement. This suggests to me that something's up. Maybe he didn't want to meet Erdo himself and give such concessions. Or maybe this agreement won't be followed in spirit.

Putin has probably told both sides that this isn't a forever thing and for the moment it suits everyone as best as possible... which is probably true.

Let's say you saved my life.
Does that mean you get to come into my house and fuck my spouse?

First of all... how vulgar... I wouldn't fuck her... I would make sweet sweet love to her...

Second  ...PM me a picture and let me think about it.

Hahahaha.... just kidding... I am sure she is gorgeous and I would be a fool to say what I am going say, but for me personally I think saving someones life is something you should do... morally... and not for some expected reward. If I find a wallet on the road with money in it I return it if I can or take it to the police if I can't return it. I don't keep the money and I don't expect a reward... I don't need a reward for doing what is essentially the right thing.

I value all life, which is not to say I wont shoot pest animals.

Equally however if someone saved my life by risking their life I would certainly feel I could trust them more than if they had never done anything for me.

I meant thanking them in 1939.

Well technically they did by agreeing to not lift a finger when Germany took the remaining half of Poland that didn't used to be part of Russia.

In the west it is described as poland being split by being stolen by germany on the one side and the soviet union on the other but in actual fact germany occupied poland and the soviets got their land back.

We'll meet Erdo again sooner or later. Sure of that. Not that he's a threat to Russia like Hitler was of course. But again, if you're going to go all out to protect a country, do it right.

Yeah comparisons with Erdo and Hitler are self defeating. If you are going to claim that any currently EU and US aligned country can't become a friend of Russia and a good business partner because you are going to compare their leader to Hitler... well let me just point out trade relations with Britain are not great and part of that could be because they keep comparing Putin to a hitler like character wanting to invade europe and steal their democracy and morals.

Erdo wants for Turkey what Putin wants for Russia and what Assad wants for Syria... and each is probably sick and tired of being compared with stalin or hitler or pol pot.

How about we just make deals and stick to them and leave the speculation of future betrayal aside until it actually happens and then we can respond... otherwise you sound like Teresa May saying it is highly likely everything is erdogans fault and we should not be talking to him.

Well in this case the alternative is fighting him... so which will be costing more Russian military lives?

The priority is to give him that position. So that we can eventually get out of there, for one thing.

There is a lot of work to go yet, and with Tartus you do realise you are never actually leaving...

Well if Putin was decided upon to negotiate and Assad fully agrees with the deal, then I guess there was a reason why Putin is the one doing it at this precise time.

Too many things we don't know.

Agree, but as I said... Putin has more strings he can pull and he likely has Erdogans respect... which I suspect Assad does not and vice versa.

"and still matter"

They are an excuse for a cruise missile attack or an invasion if someone else gets elected in 2020 in the US.

No seperatist or some such Kurdish whatever - naturally. But autonomy and internal structure is Syria's business only and matter for its constitution. If Turkey wants to try and angle in a couple guarantees into that constitution, it should present the proposal to Assad.

The new Syrian constitution is no ones business but Syria.... neither Putin nor Turkey should have any say and there is no mention they will have in this agreement.

Turkey's security interests can be accomodated without infringing on Syria's sovereignty, it must respect the Syrian state or the threat can always return.

Turkeys interests has already gotten the americans to up and turn tail, now all they need to do is work out a step by step programme that returns soverignty of all of Syria to Syria... it is going to take 100 years because of the Golan heights but for the rest it should not take that long...

And then to Saudi Arabia by reports.

Which would be fantastic news for Syria and Iraq and our friend SS who wont have people shooting at him any more...

Will be interesting to hear his front line reports from Yemen... and hope it does not escalate to a war on Iran...

Hey, he does exactly what he says he'd do.

No he doesn't. He said he wanted better relations with Russia. He posted a tweet about believing the US intelligence community was wrong and mr putin was correct and then after an enormous backlash from the CIA... oops sorry the US media... he said he missspoke and what he actually meant was that he believed his own intel community over what Putin said.

But abandoning an ally without offering it a contingency even is not worthy of any respect.

America has been doing that for literally centuries.

The Turks are far smarter than the Americans. They just look dumb.

The fact that they were prepared to go to Sochi and talk about the situation shows they are far smarter than the US or the EU... they get what they want without having to shoot at people who will be shooting back... that is the definition of smart... just as Putin is smart to talk to them and work out something they can work with that doesn't involve shooting... after a few things get blown up and soldiers die it is much harder to stop and harder to remember why you are doing all this in the first place.

Turkey can always offer their rebels to withdraw, or work out a deal with Assad or Russia for establishing peace there.

If those rebels start seeing other parts of Syria getting rebuilt they might realise independence is not really all it is cracked up to be.

If it's an arms deal for Russia then it's a reward to Russia.

If it is Su-35s instead of F-35s then it is a huge escape for Turkey too.

[quot]When Saudi Arabia buys $100 billion worth of American arms, is it the US rewarding the Saudis? Or is it indicative of Saudi's vassalage to the US and their dependence on American bases and political support in return for continued existence of their regime?[/quote]

The US rewards the Saudis by allowing them to remain in power... the CIA could have the house of Saud overthrown over night if it went a way that didn't suit, protection to murder its enemies and generally its anti Iran policy to contain Iran is driven by Saudi Arabia...

Why underestimate Assad?

Assad could have had a public hissy fit and say this is about Syrias future and he is the leader of Syria so he should have been included... but he was smart enough to step back and let the big boys talk it through... that is vastly smarter than most other leaders in the region or in the west.

If at some point the people decide they don't want him, they can tell him so without a bunch of Islamic revolutions funded from abroad.

And that is the point... insurrection funded from abroad is never going to be the will of the Syrian people.

Just like the attempt at a coup in Venezuela managed from the US...

but Turkey will also be presenting Su-57s and S-400s to US specialists on a platter.

Russia intends to sell the Su-57 to anyone prepared to buy it... the Su-57 they get will not be anything like the one Russia will be using... just like the S-400s sold, but do you honestly think that S-400s sold to India and China will be 100% immune to US intel trying to learn everything they can about them?

I agree with ally/partner... but at the moment Turkey is getting a lot of open hate from its traditional allies.... its chances of joining the EU are probably close to zero as we speak, but they will keep them in NATO because of their strategic location alone.

The US and UK once fought a war against each other too and their relationships today with France and Germany and Spain and Portugal and Japan and various other states show that ally, enemy, partner are not fixed and can change when interests change.

As a New Zealander there are a lot of New Zealand graves in Turkey that they look after well despite the fact that those particular Kiwis went there with rifles to kill.

Every year the battles at Gallipoli are remembered and we treat a former enemy with respect and indeed a friend... not a great friend... but a respected partner.

If you want to try to ally with every regime - you'll end up like the US. Overstreched, unable to maintain peace between competing factions you're allied to, and ultimately the situation is going to go haywire and you'll have to leave.

The US does not ally with anyone, they demand subservience from all "allies", and friendship is determined by your level of usefulness.

Ie Argentina would have been defended tooth and nail by the US if it was the Soviets or the Chinese trying to invade or attack, but because it was the UK who are higher up the chain than any central or south american country they they did diddly squat... in fact they looked the other way when the British took the brand new all aspect AIM-9 Lima and Mike models out of NATO stocks to fight the war.

The Kurds weren't presented as terrorists, although they are perceived as traitors due to their US ties and Israeli contacts. But if I was in their position, I wouldn't have done much different. Regime gone, Turkey next door and a horde of Islamists on the doorstep.

The kurds are the little guys that are getting crapped on by everyone... they know it... if any country accepted they had a case then the shit hits the fan because all the border lines in the region are up for debate or change... and it becomes a might is right situation...

It's not Turkish observation posts I have a problem with per say, it's the sort of undesirables that tend to congregate around them.

The next agreement will move or totally remove them or at least reduce their number...

It goes without saying that they will be protecting some real dirt bags and their families... that needs a solution too.

As for the Kurds, their major towns/settlements are within 5km of the border, nevermind 10km. But I agree, nothing wrong with patrols. It's that whole beardie den next door that Turkey has just set up that worries me.

Well over time the analogy might hold... if that is an itchy beard then over time it will bother both sides enough that they shave it off. If it behaves then there is no problem.

In a way it is a bit like Chechnia... they got autonomy but their thuggery wasn't satisfied and they wanted more and ended up with much much less.

I am not expecting this corridor to become a functioning state and as such it will become itchy and need to be scratched and if it needs to be scratched all the time then the shaver comes out...

{Keep in mind this is me FP... the ultimate optimist... if you asked me two months ago if the US would ever leave Syria I would say like a cockroach leaves a biscuit factory... so I am already happy at this situation... it was a necessary step to rebuild Syria.}

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey-kremlin/kremlin-says-u-s-betrayed-kurds-in-syria-tells-kurds-to-withdraw-or-be-mauled-idUSKBN1X20LW?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuters+World+News%29&&rpc=401

Kremlin says U.S. betrayed Kurds in Syria, tells Kurds to withdraw or be mauled

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Wednesday that the United States had betrayed and abandoned the Syrian Kurds and advised the Kurds to withdraw from the Syrian border as per a deal between Moscow and Ankara or be mauled by the Turkish army.

The comments by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov to Russian news agencies followed a deal agreed on Tuesday between Russia and Turkey that will see Syrian and Russian forces deploy to northeast Syria to remove Kurdish YPG fighters and their weapons from the border with Turkey.

Peskov, who was reported to be reacting to comments by U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Syria James Jeffrey, complained that it appeared that the United States was encouraging the Kurds to stay close to the Syrian border and fight the Turkish army.

“The United States has been the Kurds’ closest ally in recent years. (But) in the end, it abandoned the Kurds and, in essence, betrayed them,” Peskov was cited as saying.

“Now they (the Americans) prefer to leave the Kurds at the border (with Turkey) and almost force them to fight the Turks.”

If the Kurds did not withdraw as per the deal between Moscow and Ankara, Peskov said that Syrian borders guards and Russian military police would have to withdraw, leaving the Kurds to be dealt with by the Turkish army.

Wow, just wow. If this isn't a bluff, just wow. And if it a bluff, I'm even more amazed. Just what the hell is the game plan here? Play chicken? And if the SDF decide to entrench?

If Russia/SAA wants people who are ready to defend their homes gone and w/o a chance to stay by changing uniform - arrest and deport them yourselves.

But don't vacate Syrian territory and leave its population at the mercy of another illegal foreign power. Assad is going along with this?

I'm almost thinking this is a US intel installed fake news story, it's so unreal. But it's not https://www.interfax.ru/world/681420

miketheterrible wrote:Russia is already patrolling the border between Turkey and Syria.

And now Trump says all sanctions on Turkey lifted because it was the USA that forced Turkey out and US is to be thanked LOL.

https://www.rt.com/news/471657-trump-lift-turkey-sanctions/

Trumpy routinely claims at his rallies that the US defeated ISIS. This is utter BS. ISIS/Daesh was operating south of the Euphrates
and was defeated by the SAA. The US actually helped ISIS on several occasions by bombing the SAA. The only place where
ISIS still exists and was never actually destroyed is north of the Euphrates in the US controlled sector that includes the oil fields.

The US has systematically acted in a way that sheltered ISIS. The fraudulent "war on ISIS" of Obama was continued under Trumpy.
The US president is a sock puppet. It is crystal clear that Russia was the prime factor in destroying ISIS. Obama never once
bombed their money lifeline: the oil convoys to Turkey and Iraq. After Russia destroyed this spice flow, the US was pulling all
sorts of ludicrous excuses out its a** such as the "we didn't want to cause damage to the environment". Yeah, then close
all coal plants today, twerps.

Regular wrote:Realistically speaking - Russia is still a region power that can't be compared to influence . Even then you did a wonderful job in Syria. As a country you guys are punching way above your weight. Allies Russia have are not reliable in a first place and prone to regime changes. Even Donbas is not wholeheartedly trusted and if good deal arises it can be given back to Ukrainians. (Steinmeiers formula?)

Russia is a smart fox amongst US hounds.

You know what Regular. Regional power or not. Now would be a good time to build a coalition of Russia + SAA + Iran + Peshmerga + YPG and whatever other forces, and force Erdogan to go home, with all his pals. He should count himself lucky that The Hague is a NATO kangaroo court, and he won't find himself there.
Our friend Recep Tayyip loves Syria so much, he doesn't want to leave.

When he sees the tank divisions arriving he'll call NATO, they'll tell him that he himself just declared support for Syrian territorial integrity and sovereignty, and tell him he better leave else he's on his own.

And if he still doesn't, I'm sure the Turkish General Staff will contact their Russian counterparts, and the question will be resolved.