Syrian War: News #20

flamming_python wrote:
You know what Regular. Regional power or not. Now would be a good time to build a coalition of Russia + SAA + Iran + Peshmerga + YPG and whatever other forces, and force Erdogan to go home, with all his pals. He should count himself lucky that The Hague is a NATO kangaroo court, and he won't find himself there.
Our friend Recep Tayyip loves Syria so much, he doesn't want to leave.

When he sees the tank divisions arriving he'll call NATO, they'll tell him that he himself just declared support for Syrian territorial integrity and sovereignty, and tell him he better leave else he's on his own.

And if he still doesn't, I'm sure the Turkish General Staff will contact their Russian counterparts, and the question will be resolved.

Your comments ,force me against my desire to defending Putin .. which i think he is terrible President for Russia..
even when he is patriotic and sincerely wants to help..

You obviously don't understand that Putin have a nation with 140 millions citizens ,that he have
to defend.. So is not Syria Putin obligation to defend , but Russia.. Putin was not elected to save Syria..
and he also needs to take into account the opinion of Russian citizens.. they will not want Russia to start
a world war 3 , in defense of a country that Russians don't feel connected.. or want to get closer..  If it was
defending Belarus from a terrorist invasion ,the public opinion will be way different.. they will agree to fight no matter what since is part of Russia.. But Syria is another country ,with totally different culture ,that they not interest in sacrifice dozen  of thousands of Russian soldiers lives in defense of foreigners even if they are allied to Russia ..


. and nothing will please any more western elites.. who hate Russia.. than to see a war between Turkey and Russia.. because no matter if Russia wins the war..as it can do.. it will have major casualties of Russian soldiers and will drag down the Russian economy for 10 to 20 years.. if a full scale war happens..  

So it will be completely stupid for Russia to give their enemies what they want.. Obama hoped to provoke Russia into a full scale war invasion in syria to help them.. (because that will weaken significantly Russia economy as it did to soviets invasion of afganistan..)   So Putin after realizing if it don't help Syria ,damascus will have been over run.. then he see that he have no choice but to go to Syria to fight.. So is not like you claim.. that Russia wanted the oil... if that was the case , they will have deployed their army to the oil fields ,before they are over run by terrorist.. Russia will have never been in Syria , NEVER if it wasn't for NATO proxy war on Assad using ISIS..   So Syria give nothing to Russia.. zero.. Since is Russia who needs to feed them.. give s-300 air defenses for free . So Russia goals in Syria are purely Humanitarian to save Syria + national security.. Because ISIS could have not be allowed to over run damascus... Because guess what will NATO have done after capturing Syria?
they will have moved their terrorist armies.. to another country and repeat... it will have been IRAQ ,then after that IRAN... of they could have simply moved ISIS to Ukraine and invade Russia from there.. but this time with a far bigger army.. because any victory of Alqaeda /ISIS in Syria ,will have been a major promotion for radicals worldwide to want to Help their crusade and JOIN... So the numbers of ISIS and Alqaeda will have increased by
1000%..  and then later Putin will find NATO re-deploying ISIS right on Russia borders. but with a huge major army this time..

Even Putin saw this.. better to fight ISIS (NATO mercenary forces) in Syria ,than in Russia cities..
So Russia #1 interest in Syria is total destruction of Alqaeda /ISIS and any other islamic radical group. period.
A total defeat of terrorist in Syria by Russia.. is extremely  important..  Because it will send a message to all jihadist sectarian muslim world wide.. that if they ever try to invade another country again ,that Russia have major interest ,that they will be doomed.. That Russia will destroy them.. beat them ,defeat them easily and that No amount of weapons ,money and support that NATO give them will save them..  Sp a defeat of ISIS/Alqaeda in Syria is very HUGE victory For Russia national security.. it also sends a message to the 5th column of sectarian muslims in Russia territory , like in Dagestan or chechenia.. to dont ever thing about it..  to try anything similar ,to what their terrorist brothers did in Syria.. ,because they will be even more easily destroyed..  So any terrorist world wide ,who don't want to die for nothing.. will never accept any invitation of American and British and israel to do the same thing again.. to fight Russia army anywhere in the world..  The victory of Russia in Syria ,stop completely any possibility ,for any other terrorist movement to ever try again ,what they tried to do in Syria.. with NATO help.. Aside that NATO will neither wants to lose money either , that way if they know Russia can beat the hell of any mercenary force they deploy in any country..Russia victory will not mean an end of terrorism.. for sure not..  Some craziest will want to suicide from time to time.. but at least it will not be at a major scale level again.. but instead a few jihadist here or there ... insurgency  , but not well organized armies any more.
I saw many reports in internet and youtube of terrorist .. that abandoned the Syrian war.. for being so difficult
to fight there.. they all agree .their weapons are next to useless to fight Russia  So many thousands of terrorist abandoned the fight.. when they realialized there was no chance to win. and Putin diplomacy skills..
which is almost the only damn thing he can do right.. are no less important that Russian airforces bombing..
He managed to do something that you never see ,not even in movies.. that is turn enemies into useful allies...  So is kind of crazy .. is there is something Putin is significantly miles better than anyone is in diplomacy..
i could not have done that.. since i can't stand ,people who show no respect for humanity ,for women and children.. But Putin is extremely practical and focused on his diplomacy.. and while it doesn't confort those who want justice.. it does the job quite well ,if achieving the most important objectives.. but make no mistake..
Donald Trump also helped Putin policies.. in the end.. by pressuring its military for leaving Northern Syria.. So Trump deserve some credit too.. for facilitating Putin policies..  The things that could have gone wrong in Syria
for Russia were so many to count... Russia could have ended in a major full scale war with Turkey + ISRAEL while at the same time ISIS over running damascus.. And the major embarrassment for Putin and his political career will have been a disaster in Syria.. So Putin took HUGE RISK , by moving to Syria.. he was risking not only
Russian soldiers lives.. but his own presidency , the collapse of Russia economy and a full scale civil war in Russia too.. had things went terrible and all Russian soldiers killed and Syria defeated.   So to say Putin was only interested on Oil is pure Ignorance.. total lack of understanding..  Putin is doing the right thing... A compromise policy with Turkey is the right way.. even if it is shameful.. and dishonorable.. it avoid a war and helps Russia to achieve majority and its most important interest.. that is save Syria ,in a way they can continue to grow .
defeat ISIS and develop common interest/ some level of constructive relations with Turkey.. So everyone gets something.. is a win/win.. policy.. and like i said in the future ,. the door will remain open for Syria ,to restore 100% of its land.. in the future.. with even development of relations..

Is an A+ policy.. purely brilliant.. Putin policy in Syria.. is the best thing he could have done , with
all the limitations and disadvantages Russia was facing.. Even Putin himself told it. he achieved more things
that the ones he thought possible.. So kudos to him for that.. Now he have setup a guideline for Future Russian
Leaders ,of a way Out of major and very dangerous international conflicts..  With a lot of Patience , using force ,and combined with a very realistic practical diplomacy.


Bonus comment..

The body language of Putin and Erdogan in sochi is quite interesting.. they look too happy , for what
was supposed to be a difficult meeting....perhaps they tricked US and France into leaving ? .
Unless something drastically different happen , looks like a real chance of ending the war more sooner than i expected is already happening..

PapaDragon wrote:...a coalition of Russia + SAA + Iran + Peshmerga + YPG

Iran has been low key cockblocking Russia for years now and rest of those groups are either broke, terrorists or both

Iran has a vested interest in seeing Turkey gone
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/10/erdogan-under-fire-iran-syria-agreement-turkey.html

You need a mixture of conventional forces to get the message across, and unconventional forces to battle it out with Turkey's unconventional forces.

But it's probably too early for that. Moscow and Damascus maybe still trying to figure out what else he wants. Because with these threats of settlement cities, that he knows will be unacceptable - he clearly wants something in return.
I'm sure Russia would very much want to keep him on-side for other strategic goals (albeit at arms length)

What would Russia even accomplish now with this approach? Uphold rule of law and international rule based order?

No, get Turkey and its rebels out of Syria so that they won't do it again on Syrian territory.

Those things don't exist and are only used to keep the sheep submissive.

It does look like it has evaporated now. The world is reconfiguring rapidly. Am barely hearing a peep from European politicians about refugees and warcrimes; evidently the Americans put a leash on them by now. Even the media is keeping it on the low-down.

And no-one's calling up the security council and referencing international law.

flamming_python wrote:...who will accept him back with open arms because it will be perfect opportunity to get Turkey back in line and into the club without giving them anything in return and without​bothering with squeals of bleeding heart liberal mob back home.

West would be reunited and reborn.

Like it was when Turkey shot down the Su-24? No, Turkey is not under attack, and no-one will back his presence in Syria. He's isolated, has bent the US's arm back and humiliated it, and has just pissed off the Europeans over Cyprus. He's become the new Saddam Hussein - this time in NATO itself.
But like I said, if there's a possibility for a win-win, then Russia should seize it. Just not at the expense of Syria.

Americans and NATO defeated USSR by not backing down, you think they will back down now before one Russian tank division and some Arab cannon fodder?

I rather suspect that they're going to create something else, without this volatile Sultan wannabee. France has been talking of a European army, and just recently, of a new security architecture with Russia.
Trump just doesn't care.

They were ready to burn down the whole planet rather than give Russians anything no matter how small or insignificant and it worked flawlessly. They knew that Russians will always back down from serious fight.

Who did?
If you mean NATO, the US & allies - sure. They are used to getting everything from everyone else not giving something.

World was theirs and Russians nearly drank themselves into extinction.

Why would you want to gift them a total victory now all of a sudden?

It's more likely to be a final nail in the coffin. If not immediately, then 3, 4 months from the event.

Iran supports the Turkey / Russia agreement and operation in North East Syria. As far as I can see the border posts by Syria, run along the northern border with Turkey. But not along the grey Turkish zone. This allows for further incursion by Turkey into Syria, against SDF, should they continue to be an armed group.

Now we have to wait and see if SDF disband or not. Also the Yanks still sitting on oil well. They have to leave. Not save presents for kurd separatist wet dream. So far so good. More work needs to be done.

General Mazlum Kobane (commander of the 'SDF') with Syrian & Russian flag behind him during a video conference with Shoigu

The Kurds still in cloud cuckoo land. The US horse has left the stable.

No mention of course of the Russians or the SAA. The Russians could be regarded as "international observers".

I fully understand FP, but Russia was buttered up by Erdogan. Hell, they will turn to Russian influence even more and that will benefit Russia.
Turkey is a joke of a country, yet it's very good to have them act like pariah state and use them as customers for weapon exports. They are also pain in the NATOs ass and I love it. Russians would never move on US troops in Syria and good old Erdoretard.

Regular wrote:I fully understand FP, but Russia was buttered up by Erdogan. Hell, they will turn to Russian influence even more and that will benefit Russia.
Turkey is a joke of a country, yet it's very good to have them act like pariah state and use them as customers for weapon exports. They are also pain in the NATOs ass and I love it. Russians would never move on US troops in Syria and good old Erdoretard.

I don't think you understand what's at stake.

Erdogan with his 'safe-zone' has a 19th century colonial plan in store for Syria. To create a huge community of former ISIS/HTS/FSA supporters between the Kurds/Assyrians and Afrin. This will turn north Syria into Northern Ireland - a permenant zone of instability and conflict.
From the point of view of Syrian sovereignty and long-term stability, inter-ethnic accord, economic reconstruction - it cannot be allowed. All other considerations are secondary. Erdogan needs his deals with Russia as much as Russia needs them - if not more.
The mechanism for securing Turkish security interests - joint patrols, Syrian border guard observation posts, buffer zone with no YPG presence, border wall - have already been established or will be soon. And if more measures are needed, then they are needed, but 21st century measures, not 19th century ones.
And if a Syrian refugee in Turkey wants to return to Syria - he can go to the airport and board a flight to Damascus.

Syria was an ethnic nightmare to start with. Even during Hafez Assad, 1982, they had big trouble. Thousands dead. They have sunni villages and Shia villages. Should we expect peace under these circumstances? Temporary relocation to refugee camp was necessary. But to return refugees, should we not mix them up?  To avoid  ethnic division ? Of course we should. So if Turkey resettled mixed community in this zone, all the better. Except the armed groups. But they will be dealt with later.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
I really enjoyed my conversation with General
@MazloumAbdi
. He appreciates what we have done, and I appreciate what the Kurds have done. Perhaps it is time for the Kurds to start heading to the Oil Region!

I already said last year that US will drop the kurds because their kurdiztan is worth nothing (close country with no ressources and bordered by 4 states that would quickly destroy them. Not worth losing turkey as an ally for nothing.

Now US wants them to get the syrian oil and make their Kurdistan there and it will be worth enough to let US bases inside.

Ryssian better quickly integrate kurds inside SAA before they get blinded by US lies and really destroy Syria.

Not really. Most of SAA is still composed of Sunni Arabs and has been for the entire war.

Poverty is a bigger issue. Once Syria rebuilds and becomes majority middle class, ethnic/religious hatred will simply melt away.

No western company should br allowed to take part in Syria's rebuilding.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The kurds are already trying to strike some backroom deals realizing we aren't leaving the oil fields.

I suspect their first priority is survival, as is everyone's, and the one who guarantees it is the one who they gladly obey and accept the ideology of. A people's ideals cannot conflict with material reality, and said ideals will change to conform to the material reality. And this will be in the interests of Turkey ultimately; it will seperate Syria's Kurds from Turkey's Kurds in terms of ideology.

Russia/Syria have already lost their chance I suspect; because of this:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey-kremlin/kremlin-says-u-s-betrayed-kurds-in-syria-tells-kurds-to-withdraw-or-be-mauled-idUSKBN1X20LW?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuters+World+News%29&&rpc=401

The Kremlin has stated that both its forces and the SAA are prepared to withdraw to allow the Turks to conduct a military operation on Syrian territory against Syrian civilians. And don't think that the SDF leadership (and through them, the people on the ground) did not hear this and recognize what it means; and that all pronouncements of Syrian sovereignty and unity ultimately amount to jack - the Syrian state is not prepared to prioritize the protection of its people above all other considerations - therefore it's not really a state. It doesn't really matter if it was a bluff or not, designed to secure control - what matters is what message it sends.
You also cannot send a message to people who are in fear of genocide but ready to protect their homes - that you will withdraw unless they withdraw. That immediately tells them that in fact, you are not prepared to protect their homes and that they must stay at all costs.
The idiocy of such a statement, as I've said in a previous post, is truly beyond me. What will happen when the 150 deadline is up and they're still not withdrawn? Erdogan will phone up Putin and ask what's up, why are you not sticking to the treaty.

And now we have this
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-pentagon-nato/german-defense-minister-sets-out-syria-plan-to-nato-turkey-u-s-supportive-idUSKBN1X30SA?il=0

Turkey and US supportive, well well well.
Well, well, well
Seems Turkey has decided that an EU-led buffer zone between their territory and Russia's/Syria's will serve their interests better than ethnic cleansing/resettlement and Russian-Turkish patrols. And it makes perfect sense really; now there would be two buffers by different outside powers between them and Syria's Kurds.. not just one, who might elect to let Kurdish militias through if they have a conflict with Turkey
And the SDF will certainly support it; who still have control over several dozen thousand fighters and considerable territory. The EU didn't betray it after all - it was just spineless. America betrayed it, followed by Russia and Syria.

Russia got played. It let power, weapons deals, gas pipelines and the fantasy of Turkey exiting NATO get to its head and take precedent above strategic considerations. And with Russia, Assad too, who was no doubt pressured to agree to such a treacherous tactic - but made the mistake of acquiescing to it and not standing for national principles.

Russia concluded a tri-partite Molotov-Ribbentrop pact with the US and Turkey to carve up the SDF. Everyone played their role. And just like last time, Russia is the fool now and got betrayed by the other conspirators first.

I did say the Turks are smart. They prioritize their strategic interests over all other matters. And they're not the ones who have betrayed any allies or have left NATO.
Putin is just a cynical and corrupt imperialist, like the US are. He played along with the Turks' every move, full of self-confidence that he was the new boss of the Middle East, and now they have turned on him. He was willing to trade Syrian sovereignty and it's population - now Russian and SAA forces can potentially have to deal with an insurgency on the areas they have moved into.
Nothing makes me more angry than the corruption of our state.

way too early to making any predictions on how this pans out...but if i were betting man, i'd put a tenner on the oil fields returning to Assad at some point in the future.

crod wrote:way too early to making any predictions on how this pans out...but if i were betting man, i'd put a tenner on the oil fields returning to Assad at some point in the future.

The SDF would have been ready to return all oil-fields, and hand over all weapons, cut all ties with the Americans and demand them to withdraw, and in general do anything Russia and Assad say - if they saw that they were serious about protecting them.

flamming_python wrote:

crod wrote:way too early to making any predictions on how this pans out...but if i were betting man, i'd put a tenner on the oil fields returning to Assad at some point in the future.

The SDF would have been ready to return all oil-fields, and hand over all weapons, cut all ties with the Americans and demand them to withdraw, and in general do anything Russia and Assad say - if they saw that they were serious about protecting them.

...or you dont play your strongest hand straight up. let's just see how this all pans out. none of us are actually privy to what discussions have actually taken place between Assad/Putin or any other faction/country. what we do know is that the situ as very fluid right now and moving very fast.

crod wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

crod wrote:way too early to making any predictions on how this pans out...but if i were betting man, i'd put a tenner on the oil fields returning to Assad at some point in the future.

The SDF would have been ready to return all oil-fields, and hand over all weapons, cut all ties with the Americans and demand them to withdraw, and in general do anything Russia and Assad say - if they saw that they were serious about protecting them.

...or you dont play your strongest hand straight up. let's just see how this all pans out. none of us are actually privy to what discussions have actually taken place between Assad/Putin or any other faction/country. what we do know is that the situ as very fluid right now and moving very fast.

...and now the guardian is reporting that US tanks are going to secure these fields.

crod wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

crod wrote:way too early to making any predictions on how this pans out...but if i were betting man, i'd put a tenner on the oil fields returning to Assad at some point in the future.

The SDF would have been ready to return all oil-fields, and hand over all weapons, cut all ties with the Americans and demand them to withdraw, and in general do anything Russia and Assad say - if they saw that they were serious about protecting them.

...or you dont play your strongest hand straight up. let's just see how this all pans out. none of us are actually privy to what discussions have actually taken place between Assad/Putin or any other faction/country. what we do know is that the situ as very fluid right now and moving very fast.

No, I'm tired of it. Russia/Syria had to show that they're serious. They didn't. At that point, even if the SDF tried to angle some outside powers in it wouldn't matter, as Russia/Syria would already have everyone's support on the ground.

With our leaders it always turns out the same way. They forget who the enemy is and let perceived power get to their heads, that they're the masters of events.

When Stalin concluded a pact with Hitler, Soviet administration then began broadcasting a friendly image of the Germans. All partisan groups in Europe were told to cease their activities. Every measure was taken to avoid antagonizing the Germans. And Stalin wasn't naive to think that they're his friends now, but he was naive to think that he was in control of the situation and that the pact would hold as long as he needed it to. Well the cost was a surprise attack that obliterated most of the Soviet Air Force's aircraft on the ground, encircled hundreds of thousands of Soviet troops within days, and in general a complete catastrophe. Stalin didn't even want to believe that Hitler one-up'd him and Soviet divisions were told to avoid provoking the Germans in the beggining.

Now Russian MP's have come in, stated that "God forbid we allow a conflict between the SAA and the Turkish Armed Forces!". Every measure was taken to appease Erdogan and go along with the plan. The local population are still in panic and unsure of who to trust, no measures have been demonstatively taken to show that the occupied region will not stay under occupation for too long. In the meeting between Putin and Erdogan, both leaders were shown smiling - Putin with that smug self-assured grin of his. The declared agreement looks more like a joint Turkey-Russian policing regime, than anything else. Now Turkey's designated terrorist groups are being told to withdraw, that they cannot change uniform - and I'm sure to disarm. Otherwise, "we will withdraw". That sure doesn't sound like you and Turkey are in collaboration, does it. No serious Russian reinforcements coming in; just MPs and the airstrip being repaired. SAA reinforcements - bit by bit, that's the only thing that reassures me a little.
And Erdogan will turn on him first and Putin will refuse to even believe it. I'm sure of it. He thinks he can pay-off and play Erdogan to withdraw from Syria, and just needs to go along with the whole theatre, let Erdo save face, and Syria will get reunited. The fool

crod wrote:

crod wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

crod wrote:way too early to making any predictions on how this pans out...but if i were betting man, i'd put a tenner on the oil fields returning to Assad at some point in the future.

The SDF would have been ready to return all oil-fields, and hand over all weapons, cut all ties with the Americans and demand them to withdraw, and in general do anything Russia and Assad say - if they saw that they were serious about protecting them.

...or you dont play your strongest hand straight up. let's just see how this all pans out. none of us are actually privy to what discussions have actually taken place between Assad/Putin or any other faction/country. what we do know is that the situ as very fluid right now and moving very fast.

...and now the guardian is reporting that US tanks are going to secure these fields.

Yes and the SDF forces there will allow them, they have absolutely no reason to trust Russia/Syria after this farce. And Turkey will allow the EU into the "safe-zone". If Russia tries to stop them, it will now look like an aggressor.

At least it's good news for what concerns the safety of the people.

It's bad news for Syrian territorial integrity, sovereignty and bargaining power. Not to mention, trust in the country and government on the ground in NE Syria.

One thing at a time.

Russia could have obtained them. Oh well, the US can't sit on it forever. Look at Manbij. People thought they were going to be there forever.

Nope.

Russia made it clear that US will have to leave as they are there illegally.

miketheterrible wrote:One thing at a time.

Russia could have obtained them. Oh well, the US can't sit on it forever. Look at Manbij.  People thought they were going to be there forever.

Nope.

Russia made it clear that US will have to leave as they are there illegally.

Why can't the US occupy the Syrian oil fields forever? Nobody is going to drive them out with military force and no economic sanctions are going to put on the US because of this.

Bit more backgound stuff

SeigSoloyvov wrote:That map isn't very accurate.

So show us an accurate one. Mother already knows where they are, as does President Assad and Erdogan. Don't get too comfy where you are, you'll be leaving in the not too distant future.

Now Trump wants to send in the famous M1 tank. You know, the tank that was annihilated in Yemen by 40 year old russian ATGM´s.