Syrian War: News #20

https://mobile.twitter.com/Syrian_MC/status/1227641714787147777

Syrian firing with AK behind russian vehicles on US soldiers leaving the area.

Video of Russian grunts playing kindergarten teachers between USA troops and locals (and trying to explain who they are):

https://twitter.com/RisboLensky/status/1227649865544556544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1227649865544556544&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html%231227649865544556544




Freshest of fresh maps from Twitter of Jihadi Julian himself

[quote="d_taddei2"][quote="Vann7"][quote="d_taddei2"][quote="Vann7"]

d_taddei2 wrote:


as i said Turkey aint going to go full scale war with syria it wont happen, you forget the SAA are seasoned well experienced Turkey not so, and SAA have Russian backing, Turkey wont go full invasion just a tit for tat killing of SAA. Turkish involvement doesnt seem to slowing the SAA advance too much. and once idilb and aleppo sorted they will turn their attention to northern aleepo and with the help of the kurds push turkey and its terrorists out of syria. syria will be liberated.

alright then we don't agree in some things..
but you forget turkey can pull a 1 million army military and syria have lost a lot of their soldiers ,and economy
already in ruins.. you also forget that turkey is not alone. it will receive financial support and soldiers from US ,UK ,Qatar and from the entire middle east..  then israel can help with their own invasion in the south..and jordan can
pressure a war from their side..  so if a full scale war start.. SAA will be pushed back without problems ,when most border countries attack syria..  Russia will have to declare a full scale war on turkey to stop them..
and this will go back to the points,,, you continue to ignore.. that is..

-Russia have their interest too.. and syrian army alone can't handle turkey.. Russia don't want to be
forever there in syria fighting 2-3 nations for a stupid piece of land that its civilians were never friendly
to syria but 5th column sunni radicals ,that were hostile to syria and helped turkey to capture their city....
-ignore that Russia will neither get the support at home ,for a war against NATO and Israel for a piece of small land...russians will not want russian army to sacrifice so much , when syrian themselves prefer to leave their nation than to fight or when 20% of the population are sympathizers of turkey and their alqaeda choppers..

so russia have to think in their interest too dude.. is not just about syrian interest.. period..russian interest matter.. and they can't allow nato to bait russia into an economic trap.. which is what you want..
so nations rights for sovereignty are one thing that is perfectly legal ,and reality is another thing ,that will not care if something legal or not..

if a group of people all armed aim a gun on you and ask your money ,will you fight them alone ,because is not right they take your money? ... even if that risk your life?  if you have any sanity ,you will choose your life first.. and sacrifice the money.

reality is that syria face a war not only from turkey ,but also from NATO mayor powers and israel ,and gulf allies too.. So the numbers of force capability don't benefit syria in any away. this is why syria have been liberating cities at baby steps speed... because is the only way they can continue fighting.. with the kind of help russia can give them... now at the present . im not sure if the same tactics will work now.. because if turkey goes half retard and start a semi full scale war ,then syria only thing could do is try to defend itself best it can..

if syrian army is over run by turkey army,in their frontlines in idlib ,risk losing all the territory gained in idlib in years ..specially with nato help and israel help. and what is Russia going to do ? declare war on turkey and US and israel and dozens of nations for a piece of land that give nothing to syria ,and nothing to russia other than a temporary celebration and later a major war ??  again you ignore that the war on syria , the major objectives was to create a soviet vs afgan trap for Russia.. and humilliate their army there , and damage russia economy by the cost of sending a full scale army to syria.. so basically you are giving on a silver plate ,what russian enemies wants..   alqaeda is bad but at least they have been able to focus their fight on them ,but a full scale war with Turkey and NATO anglo powers and Israel is much worse for syria.. you also seem to believe.that the war in syria ends after syria capture
idlib.       reality is that the the turkey army and nato can push back syria from turkey borders.. and russia don't have enough military force in syria to contain a nato invasion.. and russia neither wants a full scale
war with turkey and americans and israel in defense of a small piece of land..  syria alone can't do it..
so needs russia help in diplomacy in combination with the use of force.. if you want the syrian war to last
30 years and lose in the end by civilians abandoning their nation after economy total collapse???  then you will just guide yourself by your rights.. and not by facts and reality ,that SAA alone can't do it..
and Russia don't want a full scale war to happen.. because of what i told you about the economy..  which economy is exactly the goal of american in syria ,to destroy russia economy.. thats their most important goal..
and if russia is being forced to send a full scale army..to protect SAA that wants to capture all his land
from a nato invasion then this is exactly what will happen.. the this will be a foolish thing for russia.. because they are fighting someone else war and they gain nothing...  russia later will have to provide food and repair
the cities with their own money that syrian army liberates..   so like i said.. "winning a war" is not only achieved
dude.. by capturing land.. this is total foolishness... it didn't worked for americans in vietnam..
there is an economic side of the war and a public opinion aspect too.. and russia don't have unlimited economy and unlimited public support to do what you want.. that is liberate it all by force ,regardless of the consequences ,if that create a full scale war..  pragmatism and realism and the cost of wars.. is the things you don't understand.. just weeks ago people in latakkia which is the city ,that russia base is deployed ,had a crysis
in oil and energy... so russia can't be the body guard and the bank of syria..and later do it for free.
if russia did the things you wanted from the start..and started a war with nato since 2015 , when syria had 75%
of its land occupied by terrorist.. then NATO will have defeated russia ,long time ago.. only the pragmatic approach of diplomacy with use of force ,is what allowed Russia to help syria to focus on terrorist only and avoid
a direct war with NATO and or Israel.  had syria started fighting everyone NATO ,Israel ,Alqaeda ,Isis ,FSA ,turkey ,jordan , then they will have lost miserably and russia will had no way to help just using force..
so negotiations and patience ,in combination with force is the best way for syria ,based on their limitations they face in their war of so many countries against them.  and like i said the war will not end with idlib capture.. war
only ends when syria reach an agreement with turkey ,to end the war.. and this is what you fail to understand..
that turkey can be fighting syria forever. better to leave idlib main city for later ,when a new government in power.. and earn time by giving them autonomy.. and prepare for a final war later..

Russia do have the power to send a full scale army and wipe turkey army and nato too.. recover 100% of syrian territory.. after 2 weeks of fight.. with their full airforce support and warships ,because as you say it is syria right to recover their land.  they could also do the same against israel vs palestinians.. and help palestinians recover ,100% of their land..   but even if russia capture all syria , but later russia economy completely collapse..and civil unrest in all russian cities.. then US will consider their syrian war a mayor success , because that was their final goal from the start.. to break russia economy and desestabilze the nation ,and provoke a civil war.. so are you sure ,the interest of syria are the only thing that matters? or should russia also care about the interest of its citizens too ?  that don't want their government to sacrifice too much fighting others nations wars that they feel no connection with them ?

There will be negotiations soon between turkey with russia..about idlib and depending on what happens in that meeting the future of the relations between Russia and turkey could be defined. and erdogan might choose
to go full retard in defense of alqaeda and reject russia interest.. in such a case the reality will change in terms of
russia and turkey relations , and Putin might choose to just no longer continue giving more to turkey in change for nothing.. and so he could end doing just exactly what you want..of capture all territory by force and use force.. but even if russia capture it all.. it will not mean that his previous strategy was wrong... of diplomacy with force..because it was the decision that saved syria ,literary ,the pragmatic approach of putin in the past, allowed syria to continue fighting in a way they can handle it.. now if russia realize turkey will betray them again and relations will become very bad and there is no turning back ,he might choose something different now ,to allow a full scale war option with turkey.. if the diplomacy option and relations with turkey no longer possible.. if for example turkey new rules are to attack russian russian planes aiding syrian army ,when they bomb them....
Putin pragmatism ,will lead his to think like this.. if war is inevitable with turkey ,then they will go for it..
and then turkey will be kicked from syria.. A temporary victory for syria if later russia economy collapse with major civil unrest.. after a major war with turkey. and so russia will had to recall its army as the soviets did in afganistan.. and leave . and later nato can restart the war again and break syria without russia there. this is why
big wars never ends with bullets alone...diplomacy or that the enemy surrender is what end wars.. never forget that.. and turkey is far from surrendering ,they have not even started and could be fighting syria for decades if they want.. so realities to think about.. only way to really stop turkey is an invasion on turkey and remove erdogan by force.. if go the way you want.. or go the diplomacy negotiations route and give something to get something back...

Would be OK if this were Turkey, but in this instance…

The SAA starting to close down the main Turkish supply routes, they really do need proper roads at this time of year.

That second map shows Abbin and Al-Janin are clearly road interrupting targets and it is flat countryside.

Isos wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/Syrian_MC/status/1227641714787147777

Syrian firing with AK behind russian vehicles on US soldiers leaving the area.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/deadly-occupation-video-shows-moment-syrian-villagers-open-fire-us-patrol

I guess Americans must believe that a burglar has the right to defend himself against the owners of the
house. Funny, but for some reason I hear the exact opposite from Americans.

In case it is not clear: the yanquis are illegal occupants on Syrian soil. No viable group that could be
termed "legitimate" invited them. This includes the minority Kurds. They cannot represent Syria
by definition and the yanquis are occupy much more than any potentially valid Kurd territorial claim would be.

Also, let's consider the Donbass. The USA and its NATzO minions invoke the argument that Russian support
for Donbass rebels is illegal. They even go along with the ludicrous claim that regular Russian army units
are operating in the Donbass. So the USA gives itself the right to engage in both activities while
denouncing Russia and imposing sanctions for only supporting the Donbass rebels.

Imagine the stench from the NATzO fake stream media if Russian regular forces shot some Ukrainian
villagers to death for resisting their occupation activities. No consideration for who shot first would
be given. Russian "occupant" guilt would be automatic.

Russia should have never allowed Turkish army into Syria in the first place. Sochi was a grave mistake on Putin's part. Nothing but Erdogan's Trojan horse. Now they have legality to restore Ottoman empire. This is BS.

Russia need Orion attack drones in Syria ASAP. Need to blow up thousands of pickup trucks used by Syrian National Army. Teach Erdogan a lesson. Make him bleed. Cause a civil uprising in Turkey and hang Erdogan. Only when Erdogan is dead will Russia have peace.

look at those maps.. at the turkish army observation post.. the farthest to the right..
deep inside syria.. in SAA controlled zones..

How is the turkey army going to do when they need food? or bathroom ? or a shower?

did turkey army ask permision syrian army checkpoints to let them pass supplies and food
to their soldiers ?     because those supplies will not last months and turkey airforce is not allowed
to fly by syria..

it had to be interesting to see such dynamics ,erdogan at war with syria , but turkey army negotiating
with SAA  to let them pass food to their soldiers.." hi we have turkey soldiers over there ,can you guys
let us give this food?  

if ever happens i don't think SAA will allow too many soldiers to enter or weapons ,neither construction trucks
,so they fortify their positions.  indeed the next 2-3 weeks ,could end being the most intense in all syrian war
and the turning point ,of the future direction of the conflict.. whether he will backstab Russia and a new war will start or if erdogan will be wise and will work with russia and recognize the legitimate fight of syria against armed
terror groups attacking their cities.

Just as before. Erdo will ask Putin and Putin will ask Assad.

If the Turks were ever afraid of this not being a possibility they wouldn't stay at all and pack their bags way before Syrian forces made their move on those territories. There is strong precedent, which is a disincentive to certain behavior.

As for the hypocrite calling Nancies. The U.S does whatever the fuck it wants because it can. That's a hard pill to swallow for the envious crowd. Nothing Russia is gonna do about it anyway.... and they had the chance to really put stakes on the ground early in the intervention and evict everyone - at a political cost of course.... but we know instead they chose this current dilemma to rat and squeeze its way in. The U.S and the Turks merely took their time to properly judge Russian intentions and seized on that weakness to place their stakes in firmly. Prolonging the chaos works for them. Not too smart on the Kremlin side now does it? As this drags on for years and years. It's what it's.

ATLASCUB wrote:Just as before. Erdo will ask Putin and Putin will ask Assad.

If the Turks were ever afraid of this not being a possibility they wouldn't stay at all and pack their bags way before Syrian forces made their move on those territories. There is strong precedent, which disincentives certain behavior.

As for the hypocrite calling Nancies. The U.S does whatever the fuck it wants because it can. That's a hard pill to swallow for the envious crowd. Nothing Russia is gonna do about it anyway.... and they had the chance to really put stakes on the ground early in the intervention and evict everyone - at a political cost of course.... but we know instead they chose this current dilemma to rat and squeeze its way in. The U.S and the Turks merely took their time to properly judge Russian intentions and seized on that weakness to place their stakes in firmly. Prolonging the chaos works for them. Not too smart on the Kremlin side now does it? As this drags on for years and years. It's what it's.

Syria is a small country. Especially the part controlled by rebels. Syria is nothing but Russian army's training ground. Nothing more. Nothing less. Rebels know their place. Harm a Russian and they'll get living hell. So they better not. And be the nice little live targets they deserve to be. Don't forget. Russia is the world's biggest country. So there.

ATLASCUB wrote:Just as before. Erdo will ask Putin and Putin will ask Assad.

If the Turks were ever afraid of this not being a possibility they wouldn't stay at all and pack their bags way before Syrian forces made their move on those territories. There is strong precedent, which is a disincentive to certain behavior.

As for the hypocrite calling Nancies. The U.S does whatever the fuck it wants because it can. That's a hard pill to swallow for the envious crowd. Nothing Russia is gonna do about it anyway.... and they had the chance to really put stakes on the ground early in the intervention and evict everyone - at a political cost of course.... but we know instead they chose this current dilemma to rat and squeeze its way in. The U.S and the Turks merely took their time to properly judge Russian intentions and seized on that weakness to place their stakes in firmly. Prolonging the chaos works for them. Not too smart on the Kremlin side now does it? As this drags on for years and years. It's what it's.

Yanqui power, spooge, spooge...

All that power, they can do anything they like and might makes right. So if they decide to genocide some ethnic group, then that's OK because
they are mighty and everyone is jealous of their might...spooge, spooge.

No point discussing anything with someone who worships the USA. Thinks that whatever war crime it commits, that it does not matter because
the USA is exceptional.

Keep on drinking the koolaid sunshine. Your mighty empire can shoot some civilians but can't remove Assad from power.

I don't worship the U.S.A - specially given my background. I just don't act nor behave like I don't know any better and think calling hypocrisy puts you on a moral pedestal. Hypocrites of the highest order.

And when you include context, if you really want to be intellectually honest, and not be seen as a tired robotic shill for those in power in Russia, you should, at least be truthful, that the current state of events in Syria could have been averted by decisive Russian action and decision making and it WASN'T - purposefully. You can agree or disagree on that decision but you can not pretend that it wasn't made. Nor should you get your panties in a bunch when others critique those decisions and their repercussions years down the line. You can only praise Russia's limited intervention to the extent that it should and not go beyond to what it's not. After all it's all power business - pipelines, oil and gas, control, all in the grand scheme of things.

Don't cry a river about U.S bullying. If Russia could bully the U.S into doing what Russia wants the U.S to do in the world it would. But it CAN'T. That does bother Russians.... and it should. Be better than them - there are only a few countries, (can be counted by hand) on the planet that have the potential - Russia is one. However, the fact of the matter is Russians have been on the losing end - and continue to be.

The Americans do it because they can. Russia, and Russians unfortunately throughout their history have never been able to create an empire as lasting and as powerful as those of Western States - making you the eternal boys who cried wolf - defining yourselves in opposition to them. Russians have tried.... you have, and you've failed... multiple times. I'm sympathetic to the cause because where I come from my kin will benefit in the power dynamic shift.... even a balancing (never lasting) works for me. But that's about it. Recognizing American strategy and strength is not a crime. Says more about those bothered by the truth.

ATLASCUB wrote:Just as before. Erdo will ask Putin and Putin will ask Assad.

If the Turks were ever afraid of this not being a possibility they wouldn't stay at all and pack their bags way before Syrian forces made their move on those territories. There is strong precedent, which is a disincentive to certain behavior.

As for the hypocrite calling Nancies. The U.S does whatever the fuck it wants because it can. That's a hard pill to swallow for the envious crowd. Nothing Russia is gonna do about it anyway.... and they had the chance to really put stakes on the ground early in the intervention and evict everyone - at a political cost of course.... but we know instead they chose this current dilemma to rat and squeeze its way in. The U.S and the Turks merely took their time to properly judge Russian intentions and seized on that weakness to place their stakes in firmly. Prolonging the chaos works for them. Not too smart on the Kremlin side now does it? As this drags on for years and years. It's what it's.

the mistakes of russia ,was that putin waited too much ,3 years.. before providing any real help to syria..
he did not came into help of syria until they lost 75% of their territory.. this is why i say .. putin long term foreign policy is really bad.. he is reactive , wait for things to be very bad before doing anything.. if he was proactive.. he will have understood that syria had no chance to win vs NATO in syria.. and will have created that military base earlier..  that way they will have never lost idlib.. but putin is putin ,you cant fix his slow response
to western attacks to russia interest in middle east..

but like i said earlier in another topic , the war in syria will have never  happened ,,could have been avoided
if putin took distance  from them . notice how jordan is not attacked.. and russia relations with jordans are respectfull.. by inviting syria into the russians friends club and having military bases there , he signed a death sentence for syria by nato.. and was a matter of time to be a attacked  by nato and israel.. he knew very well about israel goals of destroying syria..and us goals to destroy iran.. and syria was the obvious choice for nato to destroy  ,after they captured iraq. so thats 2  mistakes.. confront NATO and israel in middle east.. knowing russia is not well prepared to defend syria there.. properly.. and to make things worse. when syria needs help and is attacked ,he waits until syria close to collapse ,to then send his airforce..  

putin other mistake is he did not prepared syria properly ..in case of war.  any nation that putin invites to become russia ally will be destroyed.. and putin policy is extremely irresponsible and dangerous for inviting nations..to become their allies and had their bases.. nations that russia don't need at all.. russia should better focus in developing his nation economy , and not seek to compete with NATO  in their military bases deployment world wide..

but if russia wants to compete with nato. at least they need to choose better their allies..and where they will deploy their bases. nations that alliance with them will benefit the security of russia and not threaten it . putin one reason to have interest in influencing middle east.. is because he have turned russia economy in a gas station.. and so the russian economy is very dependent on influencing energy exporting nations..to balance
the prices of oil and gas.. So putin ill advice decisions is the reason Russia have to become the body guard
of so many third world nations in the world that give no benefit to russia.. but the other way..create problems for them..  countries like mexico or venezuela will have been better choices for russia to have military bases..
for their submarines and warship.. to be very close to their adversaries.. as US is to russian borders..

What i will have done if putin shoes.. since he came to power.. first understand russia limitations ,
and understand that any policy in russia ,any economic model ,can't ignore ,the fact ,that the west is
in an undeclared war against russia since soviet union collapsed.. the west instead of seeking peace.. had dramatically increased their hostilities on russia. yugoeslavia attacked , and split , serbia attacked ,then US aided the chechens in caucasus to fight russia.. he should have figure out.. that peace was not possible with the west
unless russia fight back them with their military and force them to peace by the use of force and the other way
is to fight the west through soft power ,countering directly US most influential business in the world.. just like
China is doing ,that now rivals Apple and american IT giants.. with their huawei phones and 5G. if i was on putin shoes. i will have invested the money he used for olympics ,instead for promoting a very aggressive space program ,comparable to the soviet one.. and promoting a new internet.. and of course full modernization of russian military.. that is transform russia economy from commodities based to a space based economy and high tech exports.. that way it challenge directly the US business power and influence in the world and this weaken
their economy , and also weaken US influence over Europe.. just like China could do ,with huawei,. that even britain ,germany and france allowed huawei to enter their markets. even after demanded by US to not do it.
so business leadership in high tech is a very powerful weapon ,that china is using to their advantage.. but russia is not..

more radical ideas ,that i will have done ,in putin shoes. is to promote that venezuela becomes a republic of russia federation..and move many nukes there..since us is retreating from nuclear treaties anyway.. and build in venezuela big naval bases for many warships and submarines. that are armed with nukes.. and offer them same benefits of russian citizens.. better hospitals and schools ,and job opportunities ,move many russian industries to venezuela. with russia federation visa for all ..this will allow a new latin version of Russia to expand in south america, with the goal to capture colombia too and all other south american countries.. ,to the russian orbit..and create a south american nato there.. since russia military have a lot of influence in latin america.. ,and russian language to be promoted to in south america a second language..

All this are missing opportunities.. that russia allow it to pass.. for being so focused into the past ..instead of creating russia in a new modern way .

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Hardly the war couldn't have been stopped. sure if Putin acted way sooner then he did Assad would have had more of Syria under his control right now.

Alias Syria will never be a full country again, whats going to happen is more Golan heights situations. Turkey is cutting off its parts and if people here think Syria will ever be whole again. Stop dreaming.

Russia will not save the SAA should the Turks go to open war, to think otherwise is lunacy.

Turkish observation posts are almost all surrounded by SAA and in SAA zone. Russia is bombing the shit out of Idlib. Russian control the skies and the kurdish zones in north east.

Putin is one thing, russian army is another. Russian force are bombing idlib despit Putin's "friebdship" with Erdogan. Since the downings of the su-24 and il-20, Russian army people are not friends with Turkey and Israel. Putin knows that and he can't just order to let turks do whatever they want when russian soldiers died from turkish weapons.

The ones who have nuks are russian not turks. Erdogan has nothing.

Add to that US lost all credibility when Trump said he will protect oil.

Also add that Turkish army sucks and he is not a big player in that conflict. They also have France, Italy, Egypt and Greece wishing for a bad move from Erdogan to destroy their navy and air force.


IMO Turkey under Erdogan has more chances to be destroyed than Syria not being able to be one coubtry again.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Oh boy some little outposts are surrounded call the papers, Do you hear yourself?. They purposely allowed it, if the turkish army wanted to fix that they could very easily. These jhads with 3rd rate gear.

The Turks could crush the SAA there is no question about that.

The Russians are bombing only jhads all turkey needs to do to fix that is put their forces together WHICH they are already doing and those Russian war plans will not bomb Turkish forces.

Well I mean if you wanna talk about credibility, Putin should have DAM well knew what was going to happen in Syria MAINLY after Libya and he let things get so out of control. So try again.

Turkish army has more men, better gear just better everything then the SAA. Also you clearly know nothing about their army, it's decent more than decent enough to crush the SAA.

Right whose going to destroy them Assad? don't make me laugh. Or do you think the Russians will start attacking the Turkish army? either way your so wrong its funny.

Don't bring up nukes, What do you think they matter here? cause they don't. Only in some video game would Russia drop a warhead on Turkey over Syria. Turky isn't going to invade Russia and EVEN if they started attacking Russian forces in Syria, Putin would never drop a nuke over that. So stop using the nuke argument it is lazy and frankly absurd.

Yeah russians are affraid of great turkish military power and won't touch them and if turkey start bombing russians, Russia will do nothing. Very funny.

Listen to yourself before talking. Russian soldiers are on the front with SAA. Turkey can't attack them openly, that's why they give all their stuff to HTS.

If you were to believe Erdogan, Turkey should be controling all Syria right now. The guy is only talk. SAA killed its soldier and he did nothing. France, Greece Egypt are about to remove turks from Lybia and Cyprus by force and he can't do anything.

His army is good against a destroyed army like SAA but certainly not against Russia or France.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:Why would Russia need nukes against Turkey?

 Only that maddog of zhirinovsky suggested that after the Su-24 issue, but it was a joke and a provocation.

Yes Turkey has a geographical advantage with respect to to Russia for operations in Syria, and they would be capable of damaging russian forces and if they go all out even destroying the russian base in Latakia.


The consequences,  however will be devastating.

Instanbul and Ankara are less than 600 km away from Sevastopol.  Russia has enough airplanes to give enormous damage to Turkey from the black sea.

If needed Tu-22M can be based in Crimea or in krasnodar, or even in Abkhazia. In addition Iskander launchers are already deployed in Armenia and can be brought in Crimea in a very short time, if they are not alredy there.

In case of a hot conflict all the turkish navy ships in the black sea would be wiped out in the first day of operation, and the main turkish cities will receive  nice gifts from iskanders and cruise missiles... no need  for nukes

This is a 1-1 scenario but what about EU and US ? i guess no one will help turkey in such senario .

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Oh boy some little outposts are surrounded call the papers, Do you hear yourself?. They purposely allowed it, if the turkish army wanted to fix that they could very easily. These jhads with 3rd rate gear.

The Turks could crush the SAA there is no question about that....

And Russia has supported Syria for years, with billions of Dollar, troops and equiptment, to hand over EVERYTHING, Damascus included, now to Turkey?! Aaaah yes, sound very realistic! Why not hand over direct Moscow to Erdogan, when he scolds and threatens again???

The SAA is not perfect equiped, but they are battleproofed, have endless ATGM, better AD systems than Turkey, they are motivated to defend their homeland against an invader (it's a difference to shot at syrian bros, despite being religious idiots or against turkish invaders). You have seen how the miltants were crushed by SAA, that's why Erdo is now acting...there are no miltants anymore fighting for turkish interest, that's why Turkish Army acts now. And don't forget...for a offensive you need 3 times more troops, than the defender Syria would be Turkeys deepest nightmare if it ever comes to conflict.

Syrian airspace is controlled by RuAF and no one else! If Turkey attacks Hmeimim Russia can escalate this conflict, Turkey can't! Russia could attack turkish military bases in Syria and Turkey with Kalibr, Tu-22M could unload a shit of bombs upon turkish soldiers in Syria, and the soldiers in turkish observation posts are literary trapped! So if Erdo goes all in, he will leave Syria with nothing!

Most likely is a truce within the gains of SAA accepted. Erdogan will take care that militants won't break this truce. Syria can focus on rebuilding, but the regions controlled by Turkey are lost for 5-15 years.

Russia knows Erdogan very good now...after he scolds and threatens everything and everyone he comes down after a while ;D Being rhetoric aggressive would lead direct to war with Turkey, being cool and respectful would bring the same without war.

ahmedfire wrote:
This is a 1-1 scenario but what about EU and US ? i guess no one will help turkey in such senario .

USA tries to push Turkey to a war with Russia! They speak about help and support, but in war scenario they will do NOTHING to help Turkey. For USA would be a win win situation, because their enemy No. 1 (Russia) would slip into a costly war with Turkey. And on top of it Russia would face more and heavier sanctions, combined with a wide fakenews campaign against Russia...painting Turkey in the colors of innocent anglelike children and Russia is the barabaric demonic monsterhorde with supreme emperor overlord Putin trying to destroy every human lifeform on earth...similar to fakenews campaign now ongoing in Idlib. In the end Russia should be fininacial ruined, Erdogan dead or otherwise gone...a big win for USA and their deepest and wetest dream!

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
In case of a hot conflict all the turkish navy ships in the black sea would be wiped out in the first day of operation, and the main turkish cities will receive  nice gifts from iskanders and cruise missiles... no need  for nukes

thats correct..

I think is clear turkey army is way more powerful and stronger vs Syrian army alone. specially because Syria already have lost about half of its military power ,in the 9 years of war.. and so also their economy can't handle
a full scale war with turkey..

but like i also said , if turkey provoke Russia into a war..like for example closing the bosphurus strait... and bombing russian base.. wish is an act of war.. they can continue sinking turkey warships and bombing
Turkey naval ports ,so no ships  enter.. to provoke a collapse of turkey economy.. so Russia have the power
to force turkey out of syria by targeting its country ,if don't want to see his economy sent back 2 decades... with all factories of weapons destroyed too ,all military airports destroyed.. Turkey is totally vulnerable to Russia military power from the black sea.. they not even had air defenses capable of intercepting any ballistic missile of russia.. until now that got their S-400s.  but Russia can overwhelm them .   and only russia can supply missiles to those s-400s..

So Erdogan not only risk losing completely all syria ,but risk the total destruction of its navy and business ..
they have an hydroelectric dam.. that is an easy target for russia. and so the turkey military will prefer to
arrest Erdogan ,than a full scale war with Russia..

but also even if russia "stay away" from the conflict after erdogan do afull scale army invation on syria only.. ,Iran also can cause major problems to turkey army if choose side with syria.. so erdogan can win something in short term.. in a full scale war and push SAA away of idlib and even aleppo..but long term his chance to hold territory are very very low..with china and russia backing with weapons and logistics syria and iran.
it will be either a vietnam for erdogan.. or a new korea war.. that if we remember the latest.. after US forces invaded north korea and captured its capital..they were pushed back out of north korea by china with russia help... this time it will be russia with china help.. so the options for erdogan are lose or lose... there is no single scenario that i see turkey winning long term..and he will sooner or later see it.. those tanks will be easy pray for syrian artillery and latest kornets-em with 1,300mm armor penetration.. Only way out for turkey is to cooperate with Russia ,that will allow him to save face at home , and even win something ,and transform a defeat into a victory.. if they negotiate some territory for turkey to hold.. i propose the main city of idlib ,that pro erdogan supporters live and SAA encircle it..and leave them inside. and also propose giving the few kurdish zones..they took.. to keep kurds in check.. and no longer can be used by US to attack syria.. since they need SAA for protection ,against turkey..  so im  optimistic about syria holding.. and having the upper hand either in short term or long term..   What im not optimistic is about Putin's Russia project..and his shortsighted development of russia.. his short sight in developing Russia as a gas station ,is what makes the west to create pipeline wars ,
to damage Russia economy..   i don't see how his policies will end anytime soon the hostilities of the west...
because he don't fight back ,neither do anything to influence them to want good relations.