Syrian War: News #20

Azi wrote:
Most likely is a truce within the gains of SAA accepted. Erdogan will take care that militants won't break this truce. Syria can focus on rebuilding, but the regions controlled by Turkey are lost for 5-15 years.
.

even less.. time..

in past elections ,the major opposition to Erdogan ,that won about 30% to 40% of the votes..
His major promise if elected was full restoration of relations with Assad.  
so that means turkey army leaving syria completely.. Erdogan is an old man and he will not
be forever president.. just in 3 to 5 years.. i see a major chances to complete retake of idlib and all
northen syria.  the only zone that could be difficult to re-take are the zones in the border with jordan..
that is empty desert.. and there is nothing there ,is empty desert.. but the zone under occupation still
threaten the security of syria.. it could be taken with iran help encircling it.. and the next time americans bomb
syria ,iran can bomb that illegal base.. so this will pressure them to leave.

Russia could also take it easily ofcourse.. i don't think it should be Russia the one that do it..
because later US gov ,will use the attack on their soldiers ,to get the support of americans against russia.
and for russia is important to influence the public opinion in US.. Trump is an example why is important that..
people crossed party lines , to vote for trump.. because he promised to end syrian war ,to end all endless wars, and focus in creating jobs at home.. and to have good relations with Russia.. So Russia needs to influence american citizens ,so they vote for politicians that are more and more closer to their interest.. promote ending wars and restoring relations.. this doesn't mean ,that the pentagon will listen any president that promote  peace but it still will make it more difficult for pentagon ,to start a world war 3. Even when trump don't control US foreign policy ,he have been able to influence a bit.. in the direction he wanted.. and this is why they wanted Trump impeached.. for his respectful way of speaking to Putin. which that no American President is supposed to do.. when the military wants the opposite ,to brainwash  public opinion into wanting to fight Russia. and also wanted to impeach trump for not starting a war against Syria or Iran or Venezuela.Congress and pentagon wants to see many new wars. and trump have avoided that.. even when he had the opportunity. and  so is extremely important for Russia to influence public opinion on in the west.. if people have doubts about how powerful can be public opinion... more than an invading army.. look no further than Crimea.. Russia took crimea without firing a shot..  and in Egypt mass united public opinion with people peaceful protest.. removed 2 dictators without firing a shot too.. and Russia empire was defeated by public opinion too.. albeit that was a violent revolution. So if the US military is not careful about american public opinion.. Washington dc could end being overthrow by its own people ,in a millions mass scale cities protest..and so this is what the American policy makers are concerned.. and why US media is so fake news.. is the one they use to brainwash their citizens.. about the military spreading
democracy.

israel attacking Damascus again...hopefully one day in the future they’ll be able to repel these attacks and even destroy the attacking aircraft.

Russians are only in a few select areas, most of the front with the SAA isn't occupied by Russia, You don't know what you're talking about at all. Turkey has been bombing the SAA every day now with MLR's and Arty.

The amount of Russian servicemen in Syria is very very small. and they aren't there to occupy the frontline.

You can keep dreaming Putin would save the SAA from the Turks but Putin will not do that. I am not going to entertain fantasy.

crod wrote:israel attacking Damascus again...hopefully one day in the future they’ll be able to repel these attacks and even destroy the attacking aircraft.

i think they attack from stand off positions.. without invading syrian airspace..
So the only missiles Russia have that can reach them are their s-200s and s-300.
and apparently the s-300s are not allowed to be used yet.. they storing them ,for a time
that a full scale war start.

Azi wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Oh boy some little outposts are surrounded call the papers, Do you hear yourself?. They purposely allowed it, if the turkish army wanted to fix that they could very easily. These jhads with 3rd rate gear.

The Turks could crush the SAA there is no question about that....

And Russia has supported Syria for years, with billions of Dollar, troops and equiptment, to hand over EVERYTHING, Damascus included, now to Turkey?! Aaaah yes, sound very realistic! Why not hand over direct Moscow to Erdogan, when he scolds and threatens again???

The SAA is not perfect equiped, but they are battleproofed, have endless ATGM, better AD systems than Turkey, they are motivated to defend their homeland against an invader (it's a difference to shot at syrian bros, despite being religious idiots or against turkish invaders). You have seen how the miltants were crushed by SAA, that's why Erdo is now acting...there are no miltants anymore fighting for turkish interest, that's why Turkish Army acts now. And don't forget...for a offensive you need 3 times more troops, than the defender Syria would be Turkeys deepest nightmare if it ever comes to conflict.

Syrian airspace is controlled by RuAF and no one else! If Turkey attacks Hmeimim Russia can escalate this conflict, Turkey can't! Russia could attack turkish military bases in Syria and Turkey with Kalibr, Tu-22M could unload a shit of bombs upon turkish soldiers in Syria, and the soldiers in turkish observation posts are literary trapped! So if Erdo goes all in, he will leave Syria with nothing!

Most likely is a truce within the gains of SAA accepted. Erdogan will take care that militants won't break this truce. Syria can focus on rebuilding, but the regions controlled by Turkey are lost for 5-15 years.

Russia knows Erdogan very good now...after he scolds and threatens everything and everyone he comes down after a while ;D Being rhetoric aggressive would lead direct to war with Turkey, being cool and respectful would bring the same without war.

1. They do not have better AD, the S-300 and 400 systems are manned and controlled by the Russians. Russia isn't going to down Turkish aircraft unless it attacks them period.

2. They do not have endless AGTM, but the Turks on the other hand do. They would get NATO support and tons of weapons would flow in much much more then the SAA could handle.

3. Battle-hardened really doesn't matter much, when you are vastly outnumbered and again the Turkish army isn't jhads these guys train decent enough. The Turks have a better Airforce and much more heavy equipment.

4. Ah you clearly don't understand Turkey doesn't want to push the SAA that far back they want the SAA behind their posts. If the Turks wanted to alias they could and I honestly doubt Putin would do anything, he has a habit of talking tough but buckling when push comes to shove.

5. Lol Militants without AA, Heavy arty and a good supply of other heavy vehicles lost to the SAA who has a functional airforce, more gear and what not?. YA DON'T SAY, I never would have imagined that possible.

6. Turkey will not attack Russia why is this SO HARD for you guys to understand. Erod knows he can attack the SAA openly and Putin will do nothing.

crod wrote:israel attacking Damascus again...hopefully one day in the future they’ll be able to repel these attacks and even destroy the attacking aircraft.

All Isreal does is superficial damage, there is no reason to escalate things by bringing down their planes. It's better just to let them bomb once and a while and ignore them.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Russians are only in a few select areas, most of the front with the SAA isn't occupied by Russia, You don't know what you're talking about at all. Turkey has been bombing the SAA every day now with MLR's and Arty.

The amount of Russian servicemen in Syria is very very small. and they aren't there to occupy the frontline.

You can keep dreaming Putin would save the SAA from the Turks but Putin will not do that. I am not going to entertain fantasy.

Russia don't need to fight turkey directly.. all they need to do is provide real time intelligence of turkey army
and turkey rebels position.. and coordinates ,pass it to Syrian artillery..  
and provide SAA with the best weapons to fight Turkey and his rebels..
SAA will not fight turkey army if not attacked ,but will return the fire to anyone who attacks them. as they already did it..that killed a dozen of turkey soldiers..and wounded a lot more.. Turkey army is more powerful, don't take me wrong..but he will need a way more than 5,000 soldiers to push back the SAA..with Russia support..to SAA.

And Russia airforce will continue bombing turkey backed fighters ,artillery and tanks ,that attack syrian army.
since turkey announced an operation ,the syrian army continue advancing.. the fact that turkey provide
its armored vehicles to his rebels.. means that erdogan is afraid to directly start an offensive with his army
on SAA captured cities. The turkey outpost are neither firing on syrian army.. so all indicates that erdogan wants to continue playing games.. fighting a proxy war...even after their invasion..to avoid major war..
All this can change however in future if send a full scale invasion, erdogan is unpredictable and irrational at times.. Turkey have the numbers and the brutal force.. Russia have better weapons than NATO and can pass it to SAA ,to stop turkey army or any rebels that attack them..  Russian artillery is way better than the NATO one and have longer range too.. Syria have buks air defenses that are pretty descent that can reach planes all the way above turkey border.. Russia also have electronic warfare ,to shutdown turkey communications ,so they can't coordinate any major attack ,and can't organize.  So a big NATO army with jammed communications
by russia is a recipe for disaster.. even when turkey army is more powerful SAA can hold them back for
some time , and make it very expensive for them any inch of territory that advance..  i predict in 2-5 weeks we will know for sure what the future of syria will be.. but long term. the weapons and assistance Russia ,iran and china will be giving to SAA will bleed to death the turkey army and his backed rebels.. you will see..
this is a dumb war ,what erdogan is fighting.. he have little chance to hold another 5 years this conflict ,without control of syrian airspace..  and allowing russian airforce to bomb his backed rebels non stop. at the rate SAA
is advancing ,they will be encircling IDLIB before the end of year or much earlier..or maybe they stop with just taking the  major highways.. and don't advance beyond idlib city. and do a major big month pause and then re-start all again later. i think it was me who told you before this.. that this is a long war ,what russia is playing..
and attrition war.. so any tactical retreats that turkey force on SAA ,if happens will be temporary.. what is important is that they continue pushing. and pushing.. and in the end SAA with Russia and Iran help ,have very big possibilities to end with the upper hand.

Apparently yesterday the SAA secured several villages in southwestern Aleppo, so creating a safety area west of the M5 highway. Southfront mentions that now they could advance to Atarib.
However I believe it would be of fundamental importance now to first recover the al mansura and kafr Hamnrah area just outside western Aleppo, so that the city is not subject to continuous attack from the terrorists.

You can see from the map below (two days old, and not redlecting the advances west of M5) that there are terrorist controlled areas just on the west of Aleppo, and the aforementioned villages are too close to the city, and thus dangerous for Aleppo citizens until they remain under control of Al Qaeda affiliated groups.

crod wrote:israel attacking Damascus again...hopefully one day in the future they’ll be able to repel these attacks and even destroy the attacking aircraft.

it looks that they already can do it..

last week attack of israel.. 4 planes launched 8 missiles.. and Syria intercepted 6 of 8.
and the 2 that hit syria ,deviated from its course..and hit a parking lot..with some cars..
it means likely the missiles were jammed its gps and or blinded if guided by camera...

and last night ,according to syrian media, the israel attack , was intercepted completely with no damages to syrian infraestructure..  

https://www.rt.com/news/480802-syria-damascus-air-attack/

So this attacks @crod.. as bad as they are ,for the security and life of syrians.. they have a hidden blessing on them.. and that is that Israel is doing an amazing job ,training Syria , Iran and Russia ,how their missiles
works.. which signals use for communications , understand its electronics and engine and warhead too if capture one that don't detonate.. and all that information could be used by Syria ,Iran and Russia to reverse engineer
their missiles and fully understand how they operate ,understand israel tactics ,and planes signature ,
and develop tactics to improve the speed and precision of intercepting them.. so based on the information learned on each attack.. they can hand tweak their air defenses and electronics.. to improve their interception probabily to near 97% to %100% . and israel saturation attacks ,also will teach syrian army how to develop
better tactics.. eventually netanyahu will have to invest a fortune in building new missiles ,that can bypass
syrian defenses.. and the best of all is that syria have been intercepting all israel missiles without activating
their s-300 or russia using s-400.. so israel benefits far less , than the syrian army ,russia and iran..

and this constant attacks helped syria to shut down one of their f-16s.. and it will be a matter of time ,
they will also develop new tactics to shoot down israel planes. it was said that russia for example jammed
israel drones ,that intended to attack hezbolah in lebanon and netanyahu was angry about it...

So the minister of defense of israel .had to be having nightmares at night.. knowing the capabilities of iran ,syria
and hezbolah will continue to increase exponentially ,thanks to israel hostilities against syria ,so eventually
they teaching their enemies how to fight them..

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

that map is interesting indeed..

the zone of western aleppo appears to be very mountainous and impassable ,and turkey appears
to be in top mountains positions there..  if that is the case.. any advance in western aleppo is going
to be a turtle speed very slow and on foot.. they better encircle it.. and block the food and supplies
to anyone on the mountains..

in the roads capture game..  syria now needs to take the m4 highway to the west..

but it looks like already by capturing a part of m60 road.. the SAA locked the terrorist the only road
they could take to move to the east,towards aleppo to reinforce from the western idlib or to hama.. they will have to go towards idlib main city and from there to aleppo ,that seems to have a big mountain there
acting like a wall..
 if they take all m4 highway will lock the terrorist located in urban zoens of latakkia ?

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
1. They do not have better AD, the S-300 and 400 systems are manned and controlled by the Russians. Russia isn't going to down Turkish aircraft unless it attacks them period.

2. They do not have endless AGTM, but the Turks on the other hand do. They would get NATO support and tons of weapons would flow in much much more then the SAA could handle.

3. Battle-hardened really doesn't matter much, when you are vastly outnumbered and again the Turkish army isn't jhads these guys train decent enough. The Turks have a better Airforce and much more heavy equipment.

4. Ah you clearly don't understand Turkey doesn't want to push the SAA that far back they want the SAA behind their posts. If the Turks wanted to alias they could and I honestly doubt Putin would do anything, he has a habit of talking tough but buckling when push comes to shove.

5. Lol Militants without AA, Heavy arty and a good supply of other heavy vehicles lost to the SAA who has a functional airforce, more gear and what not?. YA DON'T SAY, I never would have imagined that possible.

6. Turkey will not attack Russia why is this SO HARD for you guys to understand. Erod knows he can attack the SAA openly and Putin will do nothing.

1. SAA has Pantsir, Buk-M2E and S-300 is official a syrian AD-system! On turkish side...a yes the high modern, state of the art complex Hawk, only 60 years old. Yes, you are complete right...Turkey is really overwhelming in this part!

2. Over the years they have confiscicated enough ATGM and supply of Russia additional. Of course on the other side Turkey has enough ATGM too.

3. Ah yes...the turks train them not hard enough!? SVBIED are proof of not enough motivation??? Suicide attack is not all in? Turkey has simply no rebels anymore left (who wants to fight and die)! Good Air Force is meaningless, because RuAF control syrian airspace...how many attacks of TuAF you have seen? SAA has heavy equiptment too! That's not the point...turkish tanks are 40-60 years old, exception are the upgraded Sabra tanks. Why do think a 40 year old Leopard 2A4 should perform better than a T-90A or or a T-72?

4. Ah yes...Putin can only talk, as we have seen in Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia 2008 and Chechenya...he is only a paper tiger right! Russia has invested billions of Dollar in syria, during this conflict and signed a treaty for 2 military bases for nothing. SAA won't be pushed backed a meter!

5. The "harmless" militants have tanks, heavy artillery....nearly everything a normal army have! You could see this 1000 times, that militants attack with tanks, BMP and other stuff, looted from SAA during beginning of conflict and delivered from east european contries via Turkey (Bulgaria). And militants have AA since beginning of conflict, that's why RuAF and Syrian Air Force fly above 5 km height. Problem in Syria are not tanks, it is the streetfight, snipers and booby traps...same problem Turkey will face, if the try to advance against Assad.

6. During this 5 years Russia is in Syria, Turkey attacked nearly every day the russian bases (indirect), via the militants. The armed groups are supported, equiped and payed from Turkey! Do you think russians are stupid???

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Turkey has now 7000-10000 soldiers inside Syria and let's say 1000 are trapped in observation posts. On the other side are 60000 - 70000 soldiers of SAA and allied militia, on the frontline! Turkey must amass atleast 30000-50000 soldiers in combination with militants to 100000 for a succesful offenisve. Ok, they are stretched all over the Idlib frontline, that's true. In worst case Assad can mobilize additional troops. How many of these turkish soldiers will die?

Of course if Turkey goes all in and sends 500000 soldiers to Syria, they will win this conflict, but this is political not possible and suicide for Erdogan. More realistic is a intervention of a force of 30000 and on the other side Syria will mobilize EVERYTHING! The death toll would be very high for Turkey and remember they will have no air support.

Though I cannot access the map for some reason, livemap are reporting that Turkey just erected a military post on the m5. Not sure how considering it’s under Syrian control but like I say, I cannot view the map.

crod wrote:Though I cannot access the map for some reason, livemap are reporting that Turkey just erected a military post on the m5. Not sure how considering it’s under Syrian control but like I say, I cannot view the map.

It should be south of marrat al Tuman, where the turks hastily organised an observation point to limit SAA advancement but they were surrounded.
You can see that a small observation post there is indicated in the second map from southfront that I included in my previous post.


Yes, they can block the road there, but they are surrounded and cannot get out or receive anything from their allies, so I do not believe they can sustain that position. Probably the SAA will try to evict them from there without using too hard measures at the beginning, but will be ready to bomb them if they don't comply

Rob Lee
@RALee85
·
6 min
So it looks like another Syrian Mi-8/17 helicopter was shot down by a MANPADS, presumably from Turkish forces or Turkish-backed rebels. Russia could still drop PGMs from Su-34 and stay out of MANPADS range but not Syrian aircraft or Russian helos.

Sources is talking about another SAA hel is downed today .

ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
30 min
#UPDATE: Russia Today correspondent reports the Syrian military helicopter shot down west of Aleppo was hit by a MANPADS (shoulder-mounted surface-to-air missile) launched by Turkish forces from their observation post near Darrat Izza

Isos wrote:
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
30 min
#UPDATE: Russia Today correspondent reports the Syrian military helicopter shot down west of Aleppo was hit by a MANPADS (shoulder-mounted surface-to-air missile) launched by Turkish forces from their observation post near Darrat Izza

There is a video of the first incindent showing jihadis launching the MANPAD missile. But take care...more "Allah U Akbar" than you ever heard in your entire life!!!

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My personal view is that everything is beginning to escalate...Turkey crossed several red lines and will pay a heavy price. MANPADs to HTS is too much! If there is a new ceasefire, then on the terms dictated by Russia.

Vann7 wrote:...in past elections ,the major opposition to Erdogan ,that won about 30% to 40% of the votes..
His major promise if elected was full restoration of relations with Assad.  
so that means turkey army leaving syria completely.. Erdogan is an old man and he will not
be forever president.. just in 3 to 5 years.. i see a major chances to complete retake of idlib and all
northen syria.  the only zone that could be difficult to re-take are the zones in the border with jordan..
that is empty desert.. and there is nothing there ,is empty desert.. but the zone under occupation still
threaten the security of syria.. it could be taken with iran help encircling it.. and the next time americans bomb
syria ,iran can bomb that illegal base.. so this will pressure them to leave.

In the past we rarely agreed...but you are right!

Turkey S-400 is hard to deal with in Syria. Need Krypton missile.

ultimatewarrior wrote:Turkey S-400 is hard to deal with in Syria. Need Krypton missile.

It is operated by russians.

Isos wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:Turkey S-400 is hard to deal with in Syria. Need Krypton missile.

It is operated by russians.

Stop replying to that moron, you are screwing with my ignore list