Syrian War: News #20

Hope all these post war construction contracts are going to Russia and Iran.

Anyway crisis over it seems
Syrian Republic & YPG flags still flying together on checkpoint in Kobani. SDF here and there. Turkey pretends not to notice it, and confirms all Kurdish forces have left and that the operation won't be resumed. They realized what's going on and how badly they've miscalculated. Putin and Trump deserve oscars.

I'd imagine the next steps for the Turkish mini-Hitler would be to announce the withdrawal of all Turkish forces from Syria. They can keep the terrorists there if they want, to be 'resettled'. Then for Erdogan to step-down and stay in country, while the US continues to collect ISIS-related evidence, Russia collects evidence of warcrimes, and interim Turkish government collects evidence on Erdogan in Turkey.

GarryB wrote:Yeah, I don't see Erdogan stepping down any time soon.

So you got the whole world against you, a minimum of 4 Security Council members with the 5th one at the very least annoyed by you and likely to abstain.

You've just disgraced your nation on the world stage and turned into a pariah in your own region and further afield, while not managing to have fulfilled any objectives you set out to do - even the security arrangements have now simply been disgarded and you're forced to pretend nothing happened. Gradually the truth will come out and your people will feel humiliated.

You're getting an international criminal case opened on you likely, quite soon. Same with all your mercenaries who don't have anywhere but Turkey to go to.

No I don't see Turkish society, elite circles, etc... sticking to Erdogan on this one. Main thing is that it's managed peacefully. Which is why he needs to step down himself, without waiting for somebody to force it.

GarryB wrote:Yeah, I don't see Erdogan stepping down any time soon.

And European and western companies will be circling to get contracts to rebuild Syria... and they will get contracts too because otherwise western sanctions on Syria will remain in force if you get my meaning...

I doubt it. Russia and America aligned with each other, over either with Turkey.

Now the Turks will withdraw and remaining terrorists will either throw down their arms or be liquidated.

America will leave Syria, maybe no immediately, but within a reasonable time frame, after the new constitution has been implemented. This process will take place in Geneva and will have many countries involved (not Turkey now ). And then there will be full diplomatic recognition and on the contrary, everyone will be invested into seeing Syria succeed. Which gives Damascus a lot of leverage as to with whom to sign what.

Well so much for my theory

Turks have advanced past all the boundaries

Tens of thousands more have fled.

SAA have been pounded and forced to retreat from multiple villages across the front. Russian MPs retreated from those positions too. SAA soldiers talk of betrayal, they were given no air support by Russia, and they had nowhere near the logistical supplies or ammo to hold a Turkish advance - such supplies were never provided to them. Huge amounts of casualties. They have heavy weapons there; artillery, tanks, ATGMs - none of them were deployed - they had to attempt to hold positions only with machine guns.
SAA leadership and Russia clearly calculated that waving the flag will be enough to stop the Turks from advancing. It wasn't.
Tal Tamr town has not been taken, SAA have not retreated from it as yet, but it is in flames.

Now Lavrov and the Turkish FM have raced to Sochi again to sign another deal on appeasement. Another 'cease-fire', now that the Turks have gained more ground. They both voiced support against groups with 'seperatist agendas'. Turks have handed off some regions that it just took past the safe zone to Russian MPs. Only its unclear what value Russian MPs will be, now that they will be perceived as collaborators and willing to retreat in the face of a foe anyway. Russia has no idea what it's doing. It has been outmaneuvered completely.

SDF leadership is already claiming that SAA soldiers were betrayed by the regime and by Russia. I'm sure that SAA soldiers will begin to listen.

Assad has called for the SDF to merge into the SAA. For what, so that they can be left without support too? Who will believe him after seeing how he abandoned his own men.

My prediction - Turkey will run back to NATO and voice support for a NATO safe zone in north Syria. The US, which has redeployed to Syria now, will also support it. People of the region will support the SDF. SAA and Russian MPs will be kicked out.

And our leadership deserves to be taken to a tribunal themselves for betraying what Russian soldiers who died fought for in Syria (against Islamists, for Syrian sovereignty), betraying the SAA and Syria, and for turning Russian citizens into the citizens of a country that collaborates with Islamists and fascists.

The blind fanatical faith in some nebulous, hollow and long discredited ideas of international law, human rights or sovereignty or or whatever other feel-good BS flavor of a day is absolutely hilarious      

flamming_python wrote:...SDF leadership is already claiming that SAA soldiers were betrayed by the regime and by Russia. I'm sure that SAA soldiers will begin to listen...

And what will those valiant, courageous and oh so skilled warfighters do in that case if I may ask?

Those clowns lost all rights to complain when they allowed ''their'' country to be overran and taken over by bunch of third-rate jihady trash that would lose a war against traffic police of any half-decent nation  

flamming_python wrote:...And our leadership deserves to be taken to a tribunal themselves for betraying what Russian soldiers who died fought for in Syria (against Islamists, for Syrian sovereignty), betraying the SAA and Syria, and for turning Russian citizens into the citizens of a country that collaborates with Islamists and fascists.

Russian soldiers fought for Russian national interests

Not for Syrian, not for Kurdish but for Russian

Kurds are trash and they will be treated like trash

If SAA has issues with that they will be joining their Kurdish butt-buddies post haste




Now pay attention because I will be delivering a lesson on international law, human rights and sovereignty that I have learned long ago in practice:

This item pictured here is international law, human rights and concept of sovereignty:


What this says, goes

Everything else is a toilet paper and fairytales for morons

Class dismissed kids  

My prediction - Turkey will run back to NATO and voice support for a NATO safe zone in north Syria. The US, which has redeployed to Syria now, will also support it. People of the region will support the SDF. SAA and Russian MPs will be kicked out.

There are rumors Erdogan will order 48 su-35 so Russia don't give a fuck about those kurd territories. They have send thousands of SAA and russians in the east which means any idea of a new country in eastern syria is dead. Turks are killing kurds which makes USA a piece of shit and nato would prefer to let russian run the northern syria than Turks if they had to chose btw the two. Supporting the turks woukd mean supporting the genocide they are crying about on any news channel/MSM.

It is again a very bad move from Erdogan.

I predict the US will get rid of Erdogan soon regardless of whether they work with him now on Syria or not; like I mentioned they're already collecting evidence.

There is literally no reason for Russia to appease or collaborate with him. Syrian sovereignty takes absolute precedence. Turkey is not an ally of Russia. How many fking times does that have to be said before our leadership understands it. It'll get the pie on its face when Turkey gets what it wants in Syria and then sticks to NATO anyway.

And yes sovereignty is a thing PapaDragon. It means that Syria will progress from a failed state to one that can stand on its own two feet, and defend its people and borders. So that Russia doesn't have to stay there forever. It has jack to do with international standards and other platitudes - it's just common sense.
Such a restored ally would be infinitely more valuable to Russia and bring greater prestige in the ME, than some arms deals and gas pipeline construction with an unreliable regime controlled by an Islamist pariah on borrowed time in Ankara. Syrian sovereignty is Russian interest, there can be no separation.

Moscow and Damascus must win hearts and minds in NE Syria and repel the Turkish invasion. It's that simple. Then the SDF US-puppet leaders will become increasingly irrelevant anyway.
If they fail to do so, the SAA accepts dozens of casualties from Turkey with no retaliation, and Russia is viewed as collaborating with the Turkish invasion - they will lose control of NE Syria. They will also loose faith from the rest of Syria's people.
I can guarantee it.
And rightly so. The people in NE Syria will have no reason whatsoever to have any trust in their own state, and will continue to listen to the religious sermons of Americans about common values and so on.

I predict the US will get rid of Erdogan soon regardless of whether they work with him now on Syria or not; like I mentioned they're already collecting evidence.

Turks are patriots/nationalists. The more US will try to remove him the more people will support him.

US are not mighty, they color revolutions works on fucked up countries that have no united people (south american "politicians" love money more than their people. Iraq is full of minority that hate each other and were very happy to remove Sadam and kil each other. Yougoslavia was composed of almost ten different people that ar racist ...).

How many fking times does that have to be said before our leadership understands it. It'll get the pie on its face when Turkey gets what it wants in Syria and then sticks to NATO anyway.

I doubt Putin is reading your posts.

Russia is no treating Turkey as an ally. They use them to destroy NATO. Those meetings in Sochi make nato discussion pathetic. Selling s-400 showed that 2nd largest member don't believe in nati defence. Leting Turks in a small area of 30x120km showed that US sold their kurds ally for 30 million dollars of oil per month ...

All the moves from russia towards turkey are in russian interest and don't put Russia in danger.

I'm telling you the Americans will remove him. Do you honestly believe they'll stand for him having issued the US an ultimatum and humiliated it in front of the world?
If they can't get a Kemalist to do it, they'll destroy its economy and publish Erdogan's ties to ISIS. Turkey will be screwed and be an international pariah with no friends in NATO or the Middle East. Question is - what good will such a 'strategic partner' do for us anyhow?

And Russia will do what, bring it up in the UN? Be the sole UN member to defy a UN resolution calling for a peacekeeping operation in Turkey or some such? The man has no allies left.. except us it seems.
The Americans are on his side for now and have also blocked the UN resolution condemning Turkey's aggression. But only until such time as they get rid of him.

So again, Russia is playing a fool's game if it doesn't stand up for Syria, and harbors these delusions of a split NATO.
That's like saying Hitler split Europe.

It will lose Erdogan in Turkey, and then it will also lose Syria.

Now keep in mind this is the scenario if US-Russia are not collaborating in secret. If they are, it's still time to have stood ground. What's next, Erdogan demands a 40km deep ethnic cleansing zone? And who's to say the US isn't collaborating with Erdogan at the same time?

Russia should have stood up against Erdogan in the beggining, and tell him to get out of all Syria or else. Then he'd be NATO's problem.

This whole thing is about Kurds being morons as always so they are getting their balls crushed as a disciplinary measure:

Russia is squeezing the YPG because it knows that without the YPG backbone, the SDF collapses in Deir ez-Zur, which means the U.S.-led Coalition has no effective local partner to hold Syria's oil resources. The U.S. "Arab SDF" plan for DeZ is very shaky right now


https://twitter.com/NicholasAHeras/status/1189646518195806208?s=20



Oh and if USA tries to remove Erdogan there will be full scale civil war in Turkey (they missed that train several years back)

My guess is that this is another one of acceptable outcomes for Russia, something like this would light up all the right places

PapaDragon wrote:
This whole thing is about Kurds being morons as always so they are getting their balls crushed as a disciplinary measure:

Russia is squeezing the YPG because it knows that without the YPG backbone, the SDF collapses in Deir ez-Zur, which means the U.S.-led Coalition has no effective local partner to hold Syria's oil resources. The U.S. "Arab SDF" plan for DeZ is very shaky right now


https://twitter.com/NicholasAHeras/status/1189646518195806208?s=20



Oh and if USA tries to remove Erdogan there will be full scale civil war in Turkey (they missed that train several years back)

My guess is that this is another one of acceptable outcomes for Russia, something like this would light up all the right places

It is an unacceptable outcome for Russia because it is an unacceptable outcome for Syria. Some sort of political settlement is acceptable, refugees returning are acceptable - but this is not.

With such a cynical attitude to the lives of one's own citizens, accepting their displacement, occupation, etc... simply because the Turks are too strong to fight - Assad would fail to ever reunite the country.

So he must do it, else accept the partition of the country. And Russia must help him, else accept his defeat.

GarryB wrote:

I'm telling you the Americans will remove him. Do you honestly believe they'll stand for him having issued the US an ultimatum and humiliated it in front of the world?

America has a long history of wanting this or that dictator removed... and to be honest their record is pretty scratchy.... their best results came from destroying whole countries first and then getting the remains to do their bidding by force... Saddam and Gaddafi spring to mind, but then there is Fidel and Maduro and Chavez before him... and more relevant to this situation there is Putin and Assad and the current leader of Iran too who would all be replaced if Americans actually had any real say in the matter.

The fact that the Americans have tried to remove Erdogan in the past made him stronger because he was able to have a good widespread purge... politically and economically throughout Turkey to get rid of his enemies... I suspect Russia will warn him again if there is an attempt to repeat because such warnings would benefit them more than the US getting its way.

If Erdogan goes all agreements between Russia Syria and Turkey are gone... and you can bet your ass if the US has any involvement in the process Russia will be out, the S-400s will go straight to the US for disassembly and examination and Syria will never get its land back...

Very simply, the navigation advice is, anything that pisses off the US is good. Good for Syria and Good for Russia and Good for Iran and Good for Turkey.

You're probably right on the removal part. But it's hard to see how they'll allow him to get away with this. They already didn't like him before and tried to have him removed in a coup. Now this whole mess.

@FlamingPython

It is an unacceptable outcome for Russia because it is an unacceptable outcome for Syria

One has nothing to do with the other

In Soviet days this statement might have been true but Soviets were never intelligent sort, that's why they ended up the way they did

With such a cynical attitude to the lives of one's own citizens, accepting their displacement, occupation, etc... simply because the Turks are too strong to fight - Assad would fail to ever reunite the country.

Turks are means to an end

In order to "reunite the country" Kurds must first be brought to heel

Even now Kurds refuse to honor agreements and are still dragging their feet and waiting for American to save their worthless asses at the expense of Russian interests (and some others but those are of no relevance)

So they must be stomped on hard and without mercy

Problem here is that Kurds have insanely high PR value and image which makes it not worth the hassle for Russia

This is where Turks come in, they can annihilate Kurds and solve this problem for everyone involved

What we have here is convergence of interest between Russia and Turkey

Russia must not tolerate any attempts of interfering with it's national interest especially by rogue armed groups aligned with USA and above all else with Europeans (and Kurds tick both boxes)

PapaDragon wrote:@FlamingPython

It is an unacceptable outcome for Russia because it is an unacceptable outcome for Syria

One has nothing to do with the other

In Soviet days this statement might have been true but Soviets were never intelligent sort, that's why they ended up the way they did

With such a cynical attitude to the lives of one's own citizens, accepting their displacement, occupation, etc... simply because the Turks are too strong to fight - Assad would fail to ever reunite the country.

Turks are means to an end

In order to "reunite the country" Kurds must first be brought to heel

Even now Kurds refuse to honor agreements and are still dragging their feet and waiting for American to save their worthless asses at the expense of Russian interests (and some others but those are of no relevance)

So they must be stomped on hard and without mercy

Problem here is that Kurds have insanely high PR value and image which makes it not worth the hassle for Russia

This is where Turks come in, they can annihilate Kurds and solve this problem for everyone involved

What we have here is convergence of interest between Russia and Turkey

Russia must not tolerate any attempts of interfering with it's national interest especially by rogue armed groups aligned with USA and above all else with Europeans (and Kurds tick both boxes)

Now the SDF is conducting joint-patrols with the US on the border, while Russia is conducting joint-patrols with the Turks behind the lines.

When the Turks attack again, and they will, they'll simply avoid the US-patrolled sections, and attack through the SAA and Russian-manned ones; well the Russians will withdraw for sure.

And then the US will be recredited again, and be looked upon as a saviour. Horray!

Our leaders have no shame, are cynical mofos collaborating with Turkey while it conducts massacres and stepping out of its way, while SAA soldiers are killed and villages are overrun. On the backdrop of arms deals and 'strategic partnerships' that Lavrov has been talking about.
Russia has simply no idea what it's doing. It'll get played out of there by NATO and rightly so.

flamming_python wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
This whole thing is about Kurds being morons as always so they are getting their balls crushed as a disciplinary measure:

Russia is squeezing the YPG because it knows that without the YPG backbone, the SDF collapses in Deir ez-Zur, which means the U.S.-led Coalition has no effective local partner to hold Syria's oil resources. The U.S. "Arab SDF" plan for DeZ is very shaky right now


https://twitter.com/NicholasAHeras/status/1189646518195806208?s=20



Oh and if USA tries to remove Erdogan there will be full scale civil war in Turkey (they missed that train several years back)

My guess is that this is another one of acceptable outcomes for Russia, something like this would light up all the right places

It is an unacceptable outcome for Russia because it is an unacceptable outcome for Syria. Some sort of political settlement is acceptable, refugees returning are acceptable - but this is not.

With such a cynical attitude to the lives of one's own citizens, accepting their displacement, occupation, etc... simply because the Turks are too strong to fight - Assad would fail to ever reunite the country.

So he must do it, else accept the partition of the country. And Russia must help him, else accept his defeat.

Both Erdogan political party and the second biggest political party  that is opposition  to Erdogan .
They both want good relations with Russia.. The major difference is that ERdogan wants to play in both sides
to get something from NATO and something from Russia.. and that the Opposition to Erdogan wants real
good relations with Russia and Syria..  

So any coup against Erdogan will not damage Russia interest at all.. unless minority political parties get
in power that are more extremist and more closer to US.. A coup against Erdogan have a higher potential
to completely finish the Syrian war and a major withrawal of Turkey army and its backed terrorist from Syria.
Since the major opposition to ERdogan was on record saying wanted full restoration of relations with Assad.

So the way i see Syrian conflict , and Putin's policy.. is a long term one..
In the long term ,the Turkey operations in Syria are unsustainable.. it will only drain Turkey economy..
and will face an attrition war from Kurds and Syrian army.. and all Turkey positions are also under strike distance of Syrian army artillery.

So Erdogan will have no choice but to honor its agreements with Russia.. unless he wants to start a full scale war against kurds and Syrian army.. with Russia providing logistics and weapons to the factions fighting Turkey military..

@FlamingPython

And then the US will be recredited again, and be looked upon as a saviour. Horray!

Kurds are not interested in any savior other than Americans especially not Russians

You can't convince people to love you if they think you are trash and wast majority of planet thinks that Russians are less than trash and they always will

This is not something Russians should be wasting time on

Our leaders have no shame, are cynical mofos

Good, they are finally learning how to do this job right for a change

Russia has simply no idea what it's doing. It'll get played out of there by NATO and rightly so.

Russia knows perfectly what they are doing

And they won't lose because they are NOT playing game they can't win

If they were playing they would have sent Russian troops straight into the fire like complete morons and serve them on a platter to Americans alongside total victory

Let Turks deal with scum and focus on your own priorities

Kurds are not interested in any savior other than Americans especially not Russians

Can you say us who the fuck cares about what they want ? They are a toy in this war.

Russia has simply no idea what it's doing. It'll get played out of there by NATO and rightly so.

Well if saving all the west Syria, maintaining their ally in power, sending troops in the east syria, selling S-400 to a nato member which will lead to the removal of this member from Nato, making meetings in sochi more important than those in geneva or UN is a failure, I don't what is the definition of success for you.

The removal of Turkey from NATO is a secondary priority, and honestly an unrealistic one. Why would they willingly leave NATO, when NATO apparently provides cover for them to do as they please. I mean look, a little colonization plan in Syria even. Pissing off every major country in the world by voicing support for Islamist movements in order to gain leverage with them. Blackmailing Europe with refugees. Chest-beating over Cyprus. Forcing the US to choose between alies. And all the while buying up strategic Russian weapon systems. Sounds like a swell deal for them.
Most important is Turkey's removal from Syria. In full, every territory, every one of their allied Islamist to leave - or just leave them behind to be put on trial.

I hear the opinion that it's a good deal with Turkey to get rid of the SDF. Not really, because it means that Turkey's Islamist influence and plans for Syria are entrenched, as well as their deep patrols of NE Syria, while the SDF will still be a pain in the behind due to its links with US intelligence.

It's much better to ally with the US and the SDF, get rid of Erdo in Syria in his entirety; and then get the US's support for a sovereign Syria, transfer the SDF over to Russia - in return they can keep Turkey and do whatever they want with Erdogan; put him on tribunal, send back the S-400s and so on. It will also enable a true reset of relations with the West, which is exactly what Trump wants. I'm hoping this is still what's really going on.

Trump's sardonic letter to Erdogan, calling him a 'tough man' afterwards, the joint US-Russian Veto of a UN Security Council resolution condemning his invasion and the lack of one since, Trump trolling everyone on Twitter for the last 3 weeks, and the increasing amount of US hardware in NE Syria w/o a peep out of Russia ostensibly to protect some depleted oil fields, while actually grabbing former ISIS members from Turkish-controlled territories, combined with complete Russian passivity and attempts to de-escalate with Turkey and implement all agreements - do suggest this. Don't know how the repair of the airfield is going, maybe it's done already - but Russia did make it clear that it was a priorty.
Ofc I could be entirely wrong.

flamming_python wrote:The removal of Turkey from NATO is a secondary priority, and honestly an unrealistic one.....

It was never realistic and was never an objective to begin with

Besides, unstable NATO with Turkey is preferable to monolithic NATO without Turkey

As for Syria, calculation is simple: it will be much easier to get Turkey to peacefully leave North Syria than it would be to get USA to do the same

Syrian invasion, kurds killings, refugee blackmailing, totalitarian regime of Erdogan, oil extraction in Cyprus are not supported by nato. They are reasons for them to destroy Turkey.

USA even hurried up to let russians use their bases in order to protect kurds. US leaving was not a deal with Tirkey but Trump decision to be reelected. Its come back to "protect" oil is because the US president never had the power to do anything by himself.

Turkey will keep being in nato only if Erdogan is removed and a pro western guy comes to power. Very unlikely.

Not really, because it means that Turkey's Islamist influence and plans for Syria are entrenched, as well as their deep patrols of NE Syria, while the SDF will still be a pain in the behind due to its links with US intelligence.

Russia at the beggining of its intervention used to bomb turkmens around idlib. Turkey tried to protect them and shot down a su-24. Since then russian planes bomb the turkmens and the other turkish backed group and Erdogan can't do anything against that. When it will be time to remove those from north eastern, Russian plane will bomb them and Turkey won't do shit.

But now Russians have more interest in selling shit tons of stuff to Turkey like s-400 and probably soon su-35 (easily 10 billion $ in all s-400+sukhois and piss off nato in the same time) than they have interest in protecting kurds which were an enemy 2 months ago and which have nothing to give (russians are already on their territories and no one will remove them from there).