You are right. And other leaders should also pay attention. Who is willing to fight and die. Who is not. Based on this, then they should all decide what to do. Instead of wasting thousands of lives of their soldiers. Even if they do not publish real numbers of dead. And battle assessments to the public. Then at least they could discuss between them. The forces that retreat, rather than to fight. Should admit defeat. Organise orderly retreat. All the soldiers must also help in correct identification of battle damages. To help decide.
once the northern sector is cut off they will likely make a push for Ariha cutting off most routes to Idilib, then encirclement then its game over for idilb. Anything south of Ariha is nothing but a large cauldron waiting to be cooked and liberated. I am sure terrorists will start to try and attack from Latakia front and more drone attacks aimed at Russian air base trying to divert attention and SAA manpower and Russian air strikes.
As for the southern front video people are talking about i highly doubt the figures and the mention of 400 dead and 900 wounded for the SAA as seig mentioned the SAA and doing fairly well on the front. Governments and media report what they want and twist the truth. What we do know is that Turkey isn't making a concentrated effort, more token attacks will continue along with the decline of the terrorists and ground it controls. I think erdo will now focus more on northern Aleppo (SDF / YPG) areas idilb, Aleppo, Latakia will be liberated by SAA. All Turkey is doing is trying to prolong it and picking off a few SAA in the process.
You are right. And other leaders should also pay attention. Who is willing to fight and die. Who is not. Based on this, then they should all decide what to do. Instead of wasting thousands of lives of their soldiers. Even if they do not publish real numbers of dead. And battle assessments to the public. Then at least they could discuss between them. The forces that retreat, rather than to fight. Should admit defeat. Organise orderly retreat. All the soldiers must also help in correct identification of battle damages. To help decide.
That's correct...
In wars there are 3 major general things that can drive a country to fight another...
1) wants.. they will like to capture x or y territory.. good for their nation expansion or for retaliation to someone else.. 2) needs .. they maybe don't want to do it..even they might not like to do it.. but they need to do it.. for x or y reason 3) when there is no other option ,because the alternative to not fighting back is to be killed ,and or their country destroyed and disbanded. and lose their nation forever. so their country own existence is at risk..
in an example of the number 1# case...
You have the war of US and Turkey war against Syria . US ,Turkey don't need Syria at all , they only attack Syria.. because is allied with Russia , and/or because capturing it ,will be good for their expansion in the zone..
in an example of the number 2# case. You have Russia war against Isis and Alqaeda in Syria.. they will not like to be there.. but have to do it.. because if they allow NATO to over run syria.. they will turn Syria in a paradise for alqaeda and Isis ,and after taking down Syria ,they move to iraq. and then later NATO orders them to attack IRAN. Each victory becoming a propaganda tool worldwide for more muslim to join , so by the time iran defeated.. the terrorist army of NATO could reach 1-2 million terrorist all of them financed by the oil of syria and iraq and iran.. and so Putin knows the terrorist in syria are controlled by NATO major powers.. and if russia don't fight them in syria ,will end fighting them later in russia. but with a significantly more lethal and bigger army of millions.
in an example of the number 3# case. You have the germany invasion of soviet union..that reach the outskirt of moscow.. In that war ,the soviet/Russian army have no choice.. is either they fight the nazis ,even if they more powerful , for a chance to save their country. . Syrian government motives for fighting turkey is also #3 ,they have no choice. if they don't fight turkey/nazi army invasion now, they will get their entire nation disbanded and destroyed later. Turkey want to capture the entire northern syria border ,even if he says he don't.. turn Syria into a sunni muslim botherhood paradise and restart the ottoman empire. this is why turkey is in lybia too.. he wants to help the muslim brotherhood to hold control of the lybian UN /US backed government.
So erdogan don't need syria in reality at all.. is not really need for turkey existence.. so they don't have the need to send a full scale turkey army.. they have plenty of choices..to avoid a major war with Russia.
so this is why Turkey will be removed from Syria..sooner or later.. in weeks , months or few years.. because the Syrian army have no choice. if they fail to remove turkey , then they will disband syria in the long term and will continue invading with more and more troops ,and more cities invaded ,until syria transformed into a giant palestine.. and with turkey imitating israel and creating settlements for turks to annex syria. and this is what already turkey did in cyprus.. with NATO US and UK support.
So assad will not negotiate any inch of territory with turkey..contrary to @SeigSoloyvov fantasy claims.. The Syrian army will fight turkey army.. even if Erdogan send their entire army to idlib with NATO behind.. because they have no choice... if they believe they have no chance to win.. then they rather die fighting than die on their knees . Syria needs to fight to the last soldier to recapture all of syria.. they have no option.. is either they capture it all or they lose it all. however how they fight .and when they fight ,the timing of this full restoring of Syria sovereignty is much better to do it , in coordination and cooperation with Russia. that way ,there could be a chance to recover their remaining territory ,with diplomacy and or without triggering a full scale war.. with US , Turkey or any other aggressor.
Last edited by Vann7 on Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:07 pm; edited 2 times in total
Russia moved more SU-24s into Syria this suggests they intend to plan to conduct more airstrikes rapidly.
Another sign the SAA intends to make a push for the border crossing. If they intend to take the crossing they will need air support in many sectors to counter rebel attacks, who should fight tooth and nail given it would be the knock out blow for Idlib.
Alias I haven't heard anything official from Syrian command staff so at this stage it is still up in the air, Syrian troops are massing in that area however.
SeigSoloyvov wrote:Russia moved more SU-24s into Syria this suggests they intend to plan to conduct more airstrikes rapidly.
Another sign the SAA intends to make a push for the border crossing. If they intend to take the crossing they will need air support in many sectors to counter rebel attacks, who should fight tooth and nail given it would be the knock out blow for Idlib.
Alias I haven't heard anything official from Syrian command staff so at this stage it is still up in the air, Syrian troops are massing in that area however.
Presumably they are to be used to stymie any diversionary attacks elsewhere that are intended to divert the SAA from this front. Otherwise its going to get a bit crowded in the air if all in one area.
Alternately, now the terrorists have MANPADs, RuAF/SyAF helicopters and Russian Su-25s have been grounded and the Su-24s will take over their roles.
SeigSoloyvov wrote:Russia moved more SU-24s into Syria this suggests they intend to plan to conduct more airstrikes rapidly.
Another sign the SAA intends to make a push for the border crossing. If they intend to take the crossing they will need air support in many sectors to counter rebel attacks, who should fight tooth and nail given it would be the knock out blow for Idlib.
Alias I haven't heard anything official from Syrian command staff so at this stage it is still up in the air, Syrian troops are massing in that area however.
Presumably they are to be used to stymie any diversionary attacks elsewhere that are intended to divert the SAA from this front. Otherwise its going to get a bit crowded in the air if all in one area.
Alternately, now the terrorists have MANPADs, RuAF/SyAF helicopters and Russian Su-25s have been grounded and the Su-24s will take over their roles.
Yes that is what I said, "many sectors" and "counter rebel attacks"
Indeed the MANPADS have grounded the choppers said that over a week ago also, thats the nice thing about being in the loop you know this stuff way in advance.
The Russians rarely however used choppers against the rebels.
SeigSoloyvov wrote: Indeed the MANPADS have grounded the choppers said that over a week ago also, thats the nice thing about being in the loop you know this stuff way in advance.
The Russians rarely however used choppers against the rebels.
You are always throwing un-grounded assumptions all the time.. The Rebels NATO sponsors had manpads since 2011.. so there is nothing new here.. those manpads did not stop the Syrian airforce from flying neither Russian one.. it did hurt a lot more Syrian airforce , but to Russian airforce not much..
There are way to counter them.. since those manpads needs a minute or more locking in the target before launched and things like flying fast..higher than 5km or fly very low and hit and run could bypass them.. also decoys ,electronic warfare with laser detection and electro-optical electronic warfare system, something like President-S system that Russia government use in their sukhois su-30 and others.. So we have yet to see if Russian military equipped their su-25 with electronic warfare them and if they are effective against the modern NATO manpads turkey should have given to the jihadist..
If Russia in 2020 ,still consider a good idea of using su-25 in syria ,full knowing the risk of manpads.. could be for slow flying planes is because either they have developed effective tactics or electronic defenses to bypass them..
Russia even export such defenses ..to the international market.
Helicopters with an Onboard President-S System Are Ready for Export
President-S includes a laser illumination detector, ultraviolet missile approach warning system, electro-optical electronic warfare system, decoy flares, and control system. The design of the President-S system includes a number of units (stations), which can be placed both within the helicopter airframe and on external attachment fittings.
[u]President-S demonstrated its high effectiveness in the recent tests .During a MANPAD attack, none of the missiles hit the helicopters protected by the new on-board defense system.
https://rostec.ru/en/news/4517944/
yet There is no information given, if they were used in syria or how strong or not ..they are.. but there is evidence of Russian attack hellicopters being used in syria with major success before.. in zones infested with isis fighters..full of manpads that NATO provides them..
scary video...
see at manpad range.. did they risk too much and putin did not cared about their lives ? or they had protection and tactics to handle manpads ?
They should have learned a lot of experience with their choppers shotdown ,mostly mi-8 ,but also mi-35 ,but the circunstances are unclear if the ones that fell from air , where accidents or weapons defect , that blew up before time.. as Russian MOD told when a few ones crashed.
SeigSoloyvov wrote:Russia moved more SU-24s into Syria this suggests they intend to plan to conduct more airstrikes rapidly.
Another sign the SAA intends to make a push for the border crossing. If they intend to take the crossing they will need air support in many sectors to counter rebel attacks, who should fight tooth and nail given it would be the knock out blow for Idlib.
Alias I haven't heard anything official from Syrian command staff so at this stage it is still up in the air, Syrian troops are massing in that area however.
Presumably they are to be used to stymie any diversionary attacks elsewhere that are intended to divert the SAA from this front. Otherwise its going to get a bit crowded in the air if all in one area.
Alternately, now the terrorists have MANPADs, RuAF/SyAF helicopters and Russian Su-25s have been grounded and the Su-24s will take over their roles.
Yes that is what I said, "many sectors" and "counter rebel attacks"
Indeed the MANPADS have grounded the choppers said that over a week ago also, thats the nice thing about being in the loop you know this stuff way in advance.
The Russians rarely however used choppers against the rebels.
way in advance it was on online news before u even put it on here. not much of a int guy are you. ur comment "Russia moved more SU-24s into Syria this suggests they intend to plan to conduct more airstrikes rapidly. " no shit sherlock you think they were just sending them on a jolly, all i ever see if you claiming things that have already been in news or online elsewhere and the other stuff u post is just fantasy. everyone on this forum has outed you time and time again and everytime your predictions have either been obvious, already said in the news or online, or completely wrong. nobody buys the nonsense ur in the so-called loop, people would respect u more for being honest. although it does make the forum funny. anyway lets await the onslaught of the turkish back rebels and turkish troops fleeing over the border, and idilib liberated
way in advance it was on online news before u even put it on here. not much of a int guy are you. ur comment "Russia moved more SU-24s into Syria this suggests they intend to plan to conduct more airstrikes rapidly. " no shit sherlock you think they were just sending them on a jolly, all i ever see if you claiming things that have already been in news or online elsewhere and the other stuff u post is just fantasy. everyone on this forum has outed you time and time again and everytime your predictions have either been obvious, already said in the news or online, or completely wrong. nobody buys the nonsense ur in the so-called loop, people would respect u more for being honest. although it does make the forum funny. anyway lets await the onslaught of the turkish back rebels and turkish troops fleeing over the border, and idilib liberated
Now now, don't beat him up too bad, it gets pretty lonely sitting in mommies' basement day in and day out up there in Detroit. He shoved his slingshot down his soiled skivvies quite some time ago when he was supposedly a grunt stationed in Deir and shot hisself square in the 'oh my yes'. He said he had to stop typing, it was 'time to go kill some takfiri'. Not that I believed or believe him anyway, but he is good comic relief from time to time.
It's fine if that's how you feel bud, I don't really care. So let me propose for you a medium between us, Block me so you don't have to see my text. In fact, I encourage everyone else to do this if you have such feelings. If you want me to also block you, just let me know and I'll do so.
You can do this by PMing me going "Block me".
No hard feelings. Zero-point in bothering with me if that's how you feel and I respect that no reason to wastes each others time.
It's fine if that's how you feel bud, I don't really care. So let me propose for you a medium between us, Block me so you don't have to see my text. In fact, I encourage everyone else to do this if you have such feelings. If you want me to also block you, just let me know and I'll do so.
You can do this by PMing me going "Block me".
No hard feelings. Zero-point in bothering with me if that's how you feel and I respect that no reason to wastes each others time.
or save the hassle and put it to bed once and for all, wear your desert protection goggles etc so you're not id-able, hold a piece of card with both their names on it, today's date taken beside a shot up house or vehicle. done and dusted imo.
here find some info.. Russia do have provided the Syrian army since 2014 with BM-30 and BM -27 , Smerch missile artilley and uragan artillery.. those are formidable additions for the Syrian army artillery forces..
So the claim that turkey can hit Syrian army from a safe distance is neither true.. Russia armed syria very well in case it had to face an invasion by Israel or NATO through turkey. even onyx anti ship missiles export version with 300km range ,was supplied by Russia to assad.. as early as 2011/2012.
Basically Russia is giving almost everything they had in the military base in latakia to the syrian army.. including T-90 tanks ,smerch ,uragan ,grads artillery..and now S-300s air defenses too.. the only thing not given are iskander or s-400s.. and some other more advanced things..
So with syrian grad rocket artillery.. they can hit 45km distance.. enough to win a duel with turkey self propelled artillery..
Operational history The first confirmed combat uses of the Smerch were in two war zones in 2014. Syrian military forces used the system against rebel forces during the Syrian civil war, including in fighting in Jobar. It was also used by Russia-backed militants to deliver explosive and cluster munitions to Ukrainian military positions and by Ukrainian Army at populated areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the War in Donbass.[5][6] Several have been seen in use by pro-Russian rebels.[7][8] The Russian Ground Forces used the BM-30 in Syria in October 2015 during the Russian intervention in Syria.
smerch in syria..used to liberate palmyra..homs.
The most special things of smerch is the big variety of munition.. and surprises it brings to the table.. including can launch a kamikazi drone with a tv guided camera that can hit on any armor or artillery .. mines or satellited guided artillery.. with 90km range ,it can hit any part of turkey army ,bases or tanks from safe distance.
last but not least.. russia have been testing hermes missile ,with 100km range in syria.. with fire and forget capabiliteis ,2,000 mm armor penetration.. supersonic.. heat seeking warhead.. laser guided too by drones.. it will be a real nightmare for turkey artillery and positions in syria.. knowing how russia give almost everything to syria.. Syrian army likely also have been provided by those for special times..
and last but not least .. russia also provided lots of OTR-21 Tochka missiles to syria with up to 185km range.. can hit with not problem any turkey positions deep inside turkey territory.. in case of a major conflict start. Iran have also missiles that can reach any part of turkey ,syria and or israel.
if syria needs more range have the scuds .. with 300km range..
they can reach half of turkey and all parts of israel.. if a major war start..
If syrian neighbors force syria into a fight..and they have no options but to fight.. they have plenty of missiles forces ,supplied by russia ,iran and china and north korea..to give a painful response to their attackers. and force them to abandon syria.. This is why there will be no safe zones for turkey.. or israel.. if they start a major full scale war on syrian army.. for example..if they start bombing assad castle.. they can strike very hard at their enemeis anywhere al lthe way to ankara and to telaviv.. with their missiles.. followed by iran and lebanon hezbolah.
Scuds can be intercepted.. but for sure ,but not in a massive missile attack ..if air defenses overwhelmed.. and turkey have no air defenses in syria ,that can protect their positions.. from any major attack.. neither US or israel have air defenses to cover their positions. they are very vulnerable targets.. as iran attack have shown.
according to wikipedia.. syria also have north korea enhanced scud missiles from 500km to 1,500 range..
here is the syrian army missiles forces exercises.. they are not a weak missile force in any way.. they have plenty of power ,and with enough precision upgraded by russia. most of this missiles are for special times that they need to defend themselves vs nato ,israel or turkey.. they will prefer die fighting ,than to allow US ,turkey or israel to split their nation..
Syrian Army test Ballistic Missiles
So is not a question of who have bigger army or more missiles.. but which side is ready to sacrifice more , for syria. After losing 50 soldiers ,israel was already seeking to leave lebanon .. and turkey will neither risk losing 50,000 soldiers in syria ,for idlib.. the syrian army have no choice.. they will risk all their army and entire population defending their land.. this is why turkey ,neither israel have a chance to hold in syria for very long time ,with russia aiding the SAA.
moral of the story.. is the Syrian army have enough power to cause catastrophic damage to any big invading army..on its country , and good enough air defenses too ..to keep enemy away from syria airspace.., to defend from any foreign airforce cruise missile attacks and any airforce too .. and those invaders will have no air cover once they enter in syria .. from a major rain of rocket artillery and ballistic missiles attacks from SAA. So Turkey will have to consider that before sending a large army in syria.. and israel will not dare to enter one inch of territory of syria with its army.. will be bombed instantly... by SAA.
and courtesy of russia.. syria also have TOS-1 fire artillery ,that will produce also fatal damage to enemies.. so imho syrian army have superior artillery forces than turkey..and israel too.. and much more options and variety , and all those things upgraded and tweaked by russia.. to increase their precision.. according to one SAA army officer ,he told that syria have the most powerful artillery forces in the entire middle east.. and artillery is only for distance fight... for close fight.. those 5,000 tanks syria have with thermobaric muniton can be used like horizontal artillery ,to overwhelm any army trying a Blitzkrieg offensive on them.. to stop their rapid advance..
It will not be easy for turkey to hold positions in syria ,without having air support.. if they go duel the syrian army artillery forces.. they are going to lose badly.. NATO self propelled artillery will be easily overwhelmed by syria massive BM-21 Grad rocket attacks that have similar range.. and syria have smerch to hit them at 90km distance too..if need to hit them inside turkey.. so there will be no safe distance for turkey ,other than moving their army to their side of the border and not fighting syria anymore and so they will be safe ,when respect syria territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Last edited by Vann7 on Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:52 pm; edited 13 times in total
Good to see more supplies going through Iran / Iraq airspace to Syria. In case some yank want to interfere and cause problems in Iraq or Syria, then I think Iran can allow Russia to base fighter escorts in Hamedan air base. Also ground supplies can be done. Iran and PMU providing security for land route. Great job.
The law that Iran has, against stationing of foreign troops, must be clarified. In this case it does not apply. Since there will be no permanent stationing. Only for duration of war in Syria. Second, the fight against international terror necessitates cooperation between states. If states support terror, then other states must cooperate to defeat it. This takes precedence over immediate national concerns of foreign troops. As long as these do not pose a problem for domestic politics. And in case of Russia, they do not.
Last edited by nomadski on Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
#ERDOGAN: "#Turkey cannot be confined within the 780,000 km2 border. #Misrata, #Aleppo, #Homs & #Hasaka are outside our actual borders, but they are within our emotional & physical limits, we will confront those who limit our history to only 90yrs." #Libya
May be he didn't heared that Aleppo is already liberated
ahmedfire wrote:#ERDOGAN: "#Turkey cannot be confined within the 780,000 km2 border. #Misrata, #Aleppo, #Homs & #Hasaka are outside our actual borders, but they are within our emotional & physical limits, we will confront those who limit our history to only 90yrs." #Libya
May be he didn't heared that Aleppo is already liberated
he have no chance to take aleppo back .with russia providing logistics ,weapons and intelligence of turk positions.. . he will lose a lot of soldiers if he try.. and his popularity will sink more than sadam hussein ,had in iraq.. when turkey got idlib away from syrian army.. russia was not there in syria helping them.. now Russia is there . it will be interesting if he goes full retard.. or not ..i don't think erdogan is a military man however.. he is more emotional.. so is unpredictable what he could do.. if he knew about military ,he will know that he can't hold territory forever until he removes Russia from syria ...and the SAA stop fighting them.. he also needs to remove hezbolah from syria which even israel could not do in lebanon ,and iran is also there ,helping.. syria will never accept turkey to split their nation..as he clearly wants. he also have the problem of kurds too.. are now helping the syrian army..so those are up to 50,000 fighters ,that they can get..in help.. and likely russian special forces aiding in the fight.. if erdogan declare war ..and suffer massive loses his military ,he will be sacked by his own army from power.. and get a revolt withing his own general staff..and remove him.
it is also worth to comment.. that based on erdogan comments.. it is true , that 90 year earlier.. aleppo and idlib was part of ottoman empire.. so he is basing his legitimacy ,over that territory ,because of the ottoman empire .. but if turkey follows that logic.. he will have to fight russia over crimea too which was under ottoman control.. and fight bulgaria too and austria.. that they invaded and controlled for some time..until they were kicked.. and the russia will have the right to invade baltics.. because it was russian before. and findland..
We face in Turkey, the same sectarian retards as in Syria. I remember a Syrian " Imam", calling for the killing of Shia. Now I hear some Turks also calling for a sectarian fight against Shia, in Syria. So not just Erdo, but quite a few Turks have gone retard!
On the other hand Erdo is wrong, in asserting territorial ambitions in Syria, just because these borders are only 90 years old. By this reasoning, then 90 percent of world borders are illegitimate. But in 90 years or four generations, then domography changes completely. Northern Syria is ethnic mixed. They speak Arabic...........
Just make sure you record the retreat under fire of Turk troops, and put on TV. Then Turk withdraw.........
That's a toshka. I guess they received russian Toshka missiles that recently were all replaced by Iskanders. They are very precise for such old missiles and don't even use GPS or optics terminal guidance.
ahmedfire wrote:#ERDOGAN: "#Turkey cannot be confined within the 780,000 km2 border. #Misrata, #Aleppo, #Homs & #Hasaka are outside our actual borders, but they are within our emotional & physical limits, we will confront those who limit our history to only 90yrs." #Libya
May be he didn't heared that Aleppo is already liberated
he have no chance to take aleppo back .with russia providing logistics ,weapons and intelligence of turk positions.. . he will lose a lot of soldiers if he try.. and his popularity will sink more than sadam hussein ,had in iraq.. when turkey got idlib away from syrian army.. russia was not there in syria helping them.. now Russia is there . it will be interesting if he goes full retard.. or not ..i don't think erdogan is a military man however.. he is more emotional.. so is unpredictable what he could do.. if he knew about military ,he will know that he can't hold territory forever until he removes Russia from syria ...and the SAA stop fighting them.. he also needs to remove hezbolah from syria which even israel could not do in lebanon ,and iran is also there ,helping.. syria will never accept turkey to split their nation..as he clearly wants. he also have the problem of kurds too.. are now helping the syrian army..so those are up to 50,000 fighters ,that they can get..in help.. and likely russian special forces aiding in the fight.. if erdogan declare war ..and suffer massive loses his military ,he will be sacked by his own army from power.. and get a revolt withing his own general staff..and remove him.
it is also worth to comment.. that based on erdogan comments.. it is true , that 90 year earlier.. aleppo and idlib was part of ottoman empire.. so he is basing his legitimacy ,over that territory ,because of the ottoman empire .. but if turkey follows that logic.. he will have to fight russia over crimea too which was under ottoman control.. and fight bulgaria too and austria.. that they invaded and controlled for some time..until they were kicked.. and the russia will have the right to invade baltics.. because it was russian before. and findland..
In fact he doesn't want to get the Ottoman empire back ,this is impossible in practical , but what he needs is some countries like Egypt/Syria/Libya/Sudan /Algeria ..etc to be ruled by his Islamic goup "Muslims brotherhood" and make all trade deals with Turkey .
Erdogan ambitions to export billions of economic deals to these countries ,he gave them the dream of empire so that they will be very happy to import all turkish deals even if this will destroy the economy of these countries , look at Tunisia when the Muslim brotherhood ruled it they made a lot of trade deals with Turkey and now the tunisian people are complaining from the turkish products that caused the closing of many domestic factories .
That's why Erdogan hates too much Egyptian president because what happened in 2013 took down erdogan's allied groups in the whole region and he lost his dreams.
So you are saying there is method to his madness? Let me see now. So he wants to monopolise the Aleppo market for the selling of his Turkish hubble bubble and sequin sewn handbags and Ali baba sandles? And for this, he is ready to loose the Russian contracts in oil and gas and Iranian and Chinese markets for Turkish goods and...... And he want to loose Europe and dream of becoming EU to support domocracy oil in Libya and go to war with Egypt and Saudi? Instead of buying oil from Iran or Russia? No I think there is madness to his method. I think what you said earlier about retardation, is more accurate. A big fail for Erdo and Co.
very good article at rt.com by an american analyst.. he is 100% correct and nailed and summed quite well all.. what Erdogan face...
Turkey faces strategic defeat in Idlib after failing to live up to its commitments on Syria
the second half of his report....
Under the terms of the so-called Sochi Agreement, Russia and Syria would forego offensive military operations in Idlib in exchange for Turkey enforcing so-called “disengagement zones”, where anti-regime forces would surrender their heavy weapons and fighters from designated terrorist organizations, such as Jolan’s HTS, would be disarmed and evacuated.
To support this effort, Turkey established a series of heavily armed “observation posts” throughout the “disengagement zones”. However, instead of disarming the FSA and evicting HTS, Turkey used the outposts as a deterrence for any renewed offensive action by Russia and the Syrian militaries. In short, Turkey failed to live up to virtually the totality of its commitments under Sochi. By the summer of 2019, both Russia and Syria decided that the ceasefire was no longer in effect, and renewed their offensive, targeting HTS forces dug in in and around the designated “disengagement zones.”
This offensive has succeeded in destroying or displacing tens of thousands of HTS fighters, resulting in numerous strategic towns being recaptured by the Syrian Army, along with vast swaths of territory. The Turkish forces in the observation posts were powerless to stop the offensive, and by February 2020, ten out of the twelve observation posts had been surrounded by the Syrian Army.
The seeming impotence of the Turkish military in the face of the combined Russian/Syrian attack both enraged and embarrassed Turkish President Recep Erdogan, who dispatched some 5,000 soldiers accompanied by hundreds of pieces of military equipment, including tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and artillery pieces into Idlib. Some of these forces were taken under fire by the Syrian military, with at least 13 Turkish soldiers being killed. Turkey claims to have responded in kind, killing scores of Syrian soldiers.
The loss of life only angered Erdogan further, prompting him to threaten both the Syrian and Russian militaries operating in Idlib with destruction if they did not withdraw back to the positions occupied at the time of the Sochi agreement. The response of the Russian and Syrian militaries was to continue the attack, resulting in even more towns and territory being returned to Syrian government control.
By failing to comply with its obligations under the Sochi agreement to disarm and disband HTS units operating inside Idlib province, Turkey opened the door for the current ongoing offensive action by forces belonging to Syria and Russia. By dispatching thousands of Turkish troops into Idlib, Erdogan was hoping neither Russia nor Syria would seek to escalate the fighting in Idlib to include force on force engagements with a NATO member. When a Russian military delegation, dispatched to the Turkish capital Ankara early last week, was not able to convince their Turkish counterparts to back down, Erdogan doubled down by deploying even more troops and equipment into Idlib, and threatening to forcefully expel the Syrian Army by month’s end if they did not cease their attacks.
The Syrian Army responded by surrounding even more Turkish military outposts, recapturing all of Aleppo from HTS and FSA forces, and driving deeper into HTS-held territory. Erdogan’s bluff had been effectively called. The Turks now find themselves in an impossible situation. In a desperate bid to isolate itself from HTS, the Turks ordered all FSA forces that had been dispatched to reinforce HTS-controlled territory to return to Turkish-controlled territory, effectively isolating HTS forces on the battlefield, where they have subsequently either been destroyed or forced to retreat deeper into what remains of their Idlib bastion.
For the Turkish troops still deployed inside Idlib, their situation has become increasingly perilous. Their numbers and dispositions preclude any chance of a meaningful defense of Idlib, even if the decision was made to engage the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army. The best the Turks can hope for at this juncture is a new ceasefire that allows its military forces in Idlib to be withdrawn safely with their honor intact. In any event, by aligning its interests with those of Jolani and HTS, in violation of the 2018 Sochi Agreement, Turkey has made its position in Idlib unsustainable both militarily and politically.
So erdogan options are defeat or defeat.. He either lose over a long term from months or couple of years to Syrian army and allies on ground , with Russia helping them in the air and with weapons and with information and airforce support ,that is to lose in a slow war.. OR he either lose in a fast and short war to the russian airforce.. and russian navy if he declare war on russia and bomb russia base.. then his entire country will become the battlefield for Russia strategic missiles and force erdogan to retreat from syria..by the use of force. which he will have no choice but to obey or face his entire economy ,navy and military bases destroyed.
I do see however US and Israel ,creating problems , but they will also have to be very careful of provoking Russia too much,when is on the middle of war with another country. is not the wisest thing to do , to test Russian military patience. i also think.. Iran can play an extremely important role in keeping american troops quiet in syria but also dissuade Israel from starting a major war... since they can strike US/Israel in retaliation .
update.. in more news..
It seems Russian airforce are now aiming for liberation of western idlib.. for m4 highway.. which if done ,it will connect latakia with alepo and with damascus by highway.. this will facilitate the supply of weapons and food and goods,from russian base in latakia to the rest of syria by highway and help the economy.. also push back the terrorist launching positions of their drones...
Y.N.M.S @ynms79797979 7h air strikes targeting Al-Nusra terrorists in Jisr Al-Shughour ...
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JohninMK
all i ever see if you claiming things that have already been in news or online elsewhere and the other stuff u post is just fantasy. everyone on this forum has outed you time and time again and everytime your predictions have either been obvious, already said in the news or online, or completely wrong. nobody buys the nonsense ur in the so-called loop, people would respect u more for being honest. although it does make the forum funny. anyway lets await the onslaught of the turkish back rebels and turkish troops fleeing over the border, and idilib liberated 
