Syrian War: News #20

SeigSoloyvov wrote:How would I be a fan of him for posting something he said.

I have made my position on him clear, he is a madman.

He is to prepared for any Coup attempts most of the higher-ups in the military would need to be replaced, when he faked his coup to obtain total power he gutted the military command structure and installed nothing but die-hard loyalists.

We did not try and coup him, The man faked a coup to eliminate all of his opposition in one single strike and assume total power. If my Government tried to do that, I'd have no problems saying we did but that would be a lie.

The courts, the news etc all suffered this. This is why I said he IS the Government, he is the courts, he is the military.

It would be impossible to coup him even if he suffered a bad defeat from the Russians, One thing Erdo is good at is playing his people he would turn it around easy.

I do agree with you if we are given the chance to replace him we would.

JohninMK wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

I do agree with you if we are given the chance to replace him we would.

Another reason why the Russians are treating him very carefully. The last thing they want would be a pro US replacement. It does give them a problem though.

ATLASCUB wrote:Free for all creates free for all problems.

The conflict drags on.

The more politicians talk the more it becomes clear that the conflict has only but one solution - a military solution.

If the "smart" ones think that you can dupe the other side by talking sweet with words and slogans, with "meetings", "deals" and "agreements" into giving up their interest then they are clearly beyond a shadow of a doubt incompetent and stupid. But I digress, they're not stupid and incompetent in that regard, they know deep down such said fact very well... their mistake is telegraphing their intentions and disinterest in "going all-in", assuming a stronger, forceful position that requires backing up when tested - because that resolve eventually gets tested. And Russia doesn't want to be tested. Turkey banks of the idea that Russia will not risk war with Turkey over Syria. The U.S banks on the same to stake its hold on 1/3 of Syria. It's kinda surprising we went from what in the beginning (Russian intervention) was American/Turk fear of engaging the Russians in a war, to those very same powers now feeling safe it's the Russians that fear engaging them in a war. When you lose that power over your opponents your negotiating position becomes extremely weak. Like I've said a million times... the Russians at the beginning of the conflict could have ran the tables and evicted all foreign powers from Syria if it played the bluff game well - at a political/economic cost but the appeasement crowd got the last word in the Kremlim. It didn't took long for the Turks and the Americans to figure out how far Russia was willing to go. Now Russia is in a worse position, because the other belligerent sides have their stakes firm and deep in Syrian soil - whereas in the beginning, they did not.

Thus we get the free-for-all. Only the imposition of strength and force will make the other belligerent side back down. Humans don't change.

This is a perfect case study of how not to intervene. But but Russia is "saving money" . but but Syria is insignificant. Can't fix stupid.

flamming_python wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:Free for all creates free for all problems.

The conflict drags on.

The more politicians talk the more it becomes clear that the conflict has only but one solution - a military solution.

If the "smart" ones think that you can dupe the other side by talking sweet with words and slogans, with "meetings", "deals" and "agreements" into giving up their interest then they are clearly beyond a shadow of a doubt incompetent and stupid. But I digress, they're not stupid and incompetent in that regard, they know deep down such said fact very well... their mistake is telegraphing their intentions and disinterest in "going all-in", assuming a stronger, forceful position that requires backing up when tested - because that resolve eventually gets tested. And Russia doesn't want to be tested. Turkey banks of the idea that Russia will not risk war with Turkey over Syria. The U.S banks on the same to stake its hold on 1/3 of Syria. It's kinda surprising we went from what in the beginning (Russian intervention) was American/Turk fear of engaging the Russians in a war, to those very same powers now feeling safe it's the Russians that fear engaging them in a war. When you lose that power over your opponents your negotiating position becomes extremely weak. Like I've said a million times... the Russians at the beginning of the conflict could have ran the tables and evicted all foreign powers from Syria if it played the bluff game well - at a political/economic cost but the appeasement crowd got the last word in the Kremlim. It didn't took long for the Turks and the Americans to figure out how far Russia was willing to go. Now Russia is in a worse position, because the other belligerent sides have their stakes firm and deep in Syrian soil - whereas in the beginning, they did not.

Thus we get the free-for-all. Only the imposition of strength and force will make the other belligerent side back down. Humans don't change.

This is a perfect case study of how not to intervene. But but Russia is "saving money" . but but Syria is insignificant. Can't fix stupid.

Yeah

Except at the beggining of the conflict, the Syrian government controlled less than a 1/3rd of Syria, albeit 50% of its population.
Now they have full control of nearly 2/3rds of it, and have forces in another 20%.

Whatever Russia is doing, it's doing it right.
Now the time has come for Russia to show its cards, so be it. It wouldn't have ended any other way. And if Russia played it too strong earlier on, Turkey and the US would have been more inclined to confront it, as they had a considerably stronger position in Syria at the time.
Russia didn't push Turkey when the FSA and assorted Islamists controlled half of Syria, but only now - when they control only 10-15% of it and the strongest Islamist groups have already been devastated, with Erdogan even actually unwittingly helping out and sending off a couple thousand to Libya too.
Russia didn't send patrols into the US's zone of influence in Syria, when they had forces over 1/3rd of it, but only now, when they're present in only 1/6th of it and the local's trust in them has been shattered.

Russia knows when to lie low and work hard in the background, and when it's time to up the game. Quite well played really. The only mistake they really made was the one recently, when they allow the SAA to kill Turkish troops or even took part in such operations themselves. This will dampen the until now strengthening relations between the Russian military and the Kemalist faction in Turkey. But perhaps, there was no other way to call Erdogan's bluster.

Isos wrote:Not confirmed that it was russians. But we ay see some su-34 launching kh-31 soon.



*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaOne
·
41 min
TURKEY ASKS U.S. FOR PATRIOT MISSILES TO DETER RUSSIA

PapaDragon wrote:
Russian MoD: “We contacted Ankara. Turkey has stopped shelling the SAA”

https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-turkiye-51575995


"Sky’s Syrian cameraman @ahmedrahhal2020 witnessed Russian air strike on Turkish position at Qmenas #idlib Missile landed 2-3 metres away from him starting a fire. Then they dropped a cluster bomb. He’s in hospital getting treatment and out of danger #Syria"

https://twitter.com/AlexCrawfordSky/status/1230509839924760580/

miketheterrible wrote:

Isos wrote:Not confirmed that it was russians. But we ay see some su-34 launching kh-31 soon.



*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaOne
·
41 min
TURKEY ASKS U.S. FOR PATRIOT MISSILES TO DETER RUSSIA

And here we go, Turkey running begging to the United States.

If they use those patriots on Russian planes, they will either be jammed or will be destroyed.  Especially if the Russian jets are in Syrian airspace.

Hole wrote:And russian Su-24M bombing the shit out of them.

Isos wrote:Russians should start flying some tupolev above the black sea as a reminder ...

PapaDragon wrote:
Some quality salt from Julian himself

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1230526700003479553

We now know that #Russia will not allow the #TurkishArmy and its allies to recapture #Idlib province & free the besieged Turkish observation posts.
Rebels beat the #Assad army, recaptured #Nayrab, but Russia simply did not stop bombing them, forcing Turkey to order a withdrawal.

Fighters from the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham terrorist group, backed by Turkish forces, carried out an attack against the Syrian Army that was doomed from the start. The main question now is, why?
News reports out of Syria’s Idlib Province indicated that a joint operation involving the Turkish Army and fighters from the Salafist jihadist militant group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has been initiated against positions of the Syrian Army in and around the village of Nayrab, which had fallen to Damascus’ forces in the past days.

HTS units, backed by Turkish artillery, were able to overrun several Syrian Army positions, capturing a number of armored vehicles, before being driven back by airstrikes delivered by the Russian Air Force. The Turkish media has reported that at least two Turkish soldiers were killed in the fighting, and several more wounded, though the Turks say they were hit by Syrian, not Russian warplanes.

ALSO ON RT.COM
Russian warplanes repel attack on Syrian army in Idlib as militants launch offensive aided by Turkish artillery — Moscow
There has been collaboration between the Turkish military and HTS on the battlefield before, with Turkish artillery firing in support of limited counterattacks conducted by HTS units equipped with Turkish armored vehicles and weaponry. As in the case with the Nayrab battle, these attacks enjoyed brief success, before being beaten back.

What differentiates the previous failed counterattacks from the Nayrab operation is the presence of Turkish troops fighting alongside the HTS fighters, and the recent statements by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatening to launch a major offensive designed to throw the Syrian Army back to positions held at the time of the September 2018 Sochi agreement. At first blush, the Nayrab battle appears to represent the manifestation of Erdogan’s threat, the initial battle of a larger campaign designed to punish the Syrian Army and its Russian allies.

There is one problem in such a scenario – the Russian Air Force. Russia has made it clear that it will not permit Turkey to launch air operations in Idlib. Moreover, the fact that the Russian Air Force was employed immediately to attack and defeat the Turkish/HTS offensive shows that Moscow has not ceded its control of Syrian air space. So long as Russian aircraft are operating in Idlib, no offensive action against the Syrian Army stands a chance of succeeding.

READ MORE
1Turkey faces strategic defeat in Idlib after failing to live up to its commitments on Syria
The Turkish military is fully aware of this reality, which begs the question: why launch an attack that was doomed to fail? One of the main unanswered questions for Turkey was how the Russian Air Force would respond to any attack involving Turkish troops and equipment. That question has now been answered. In carrying out the Nayrab attack, Turkey has escalated the situation almost to the level of direct Turkish-Russian combat. In the immediate aftermath of the Russian airstrikes against Turkish/HTS forces, the Turkish government issued a request to the US for Patriot anti-air missiles to help defend Idlib air space from the Russian Air Force. It is highly unlikely that such a request would be granted.

More probable is that, by engaging in such an escalation, Turkey might be gambling on Russia seeking to de-escalate to avoid any long-term damage to Turkish-Russian relations. One objective may be to obtain a new ceasefire agreement which could involve joint Turkish-Russian military patrols, similar to those underway in the Turkish-occupied Kurdish territory in northeastern Syria.

While Russia may yet accede to a ceasefire, it would not do so unless Turkey were to provide guarantees that the HTS fighters in Idlib were disarmed and removed. Void of that, Russia has made it clear it will continue to support the Syrian Army in its efforts to restore control over the totality of Syrian sovereign territory. Unless Turkey is willing to risk full-scale war with Russia over Idlib, it appears Erdogan’s bluff has been called, yet again.

PapaDragon wrote:

Isos wrote:Russians should start flying some tupolev above the black sea as a reminder ...

They already did yesterday

PapaDragon wrote:
Russian MoD: “We contacted Ankara. Turkey has stopped shelling the SAA”

https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-turkiye-51575995


"Sky’s Syrian cameraman @ahmedrahhal2020 witnessed Russian air strike on Turkish position at Qmenas #idlib Missile landed 2-3 metres away from him starting a fire. Then they dropped a cluster bomb. He’s in hospital getting treatment and out of danger #Syria"

https://twitter.com/AlexCrawfordSky/status/1230509839924760580/

PapaDragon wrote:
Some quality salt from Julian himself

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1230526700003479553

We now know that #Russia will not allow the #TurkishArmy and its allies to recapture #Idlib province & free the besieged Turkish observation posts.
Rebels beat the #Assad army, recaptured #Nayrab, but Russia simply did not stop bombing them, forcing Turkey to order a withdrawal.