European gas imports

Why Europe’s Dependence On U.S. LNG Is Risky

In the current year, the United States boasts status as the world's biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter as deliveries to both Europe–in the throes of a severe energy crisis–and Asia surge. So far in 2022, five developers have signed over 20 long-term deals to supply more than 30 million metric tons/year of LNG or roughly 4 Bcf/d, to energy-starved buyers in Europe and Asia.

Europe’s desperate attempt to rid itself of Russian gas became even more urgent this week, as Moscow announced that flows through Nord Stream 1 to Germany would remain cut off until the West lifted sanctions. That desperation has resulted in Europe displacing Asia as the top destination for U.S. LNG. In fact, Europe now receives 65% of total U.S. LNG exports. But there are growing concerns that trading one dependency for another carries another kind of risk. Putting all your eggs in the U.S. LNG basket means banking on Mother Nature. U.S. LNG supplies might not be vulnerable to Russia, but they are vulnerable to extreme weather and harrowing hurricane seasons that disrupt output and exports. Europe cannot afford any more disruptions.

Vulnerability in the Gulf of Mexico

The bulk of LNG export facilities in the United States--including proposed facilities--are housed along the Gulf Coast, and much of the gas that feeds those facilities comes from nearby inland reserves, from New Mexico and Texas to Louisiana, and beyond. This is a region prone to hurricanes, meaning that when hurricanes come roaring inbound, everything from liquefaction to shipping and extraction to processing is at risk of disruption.

It has happened before–and recently.

In recent years, multiple hurricanes have resulted in varying degrees of disruption for the LNG market, with impacts stretching across the supply chain from brief outages to long layoffs of processing and shipping.

Hurricane Laura in 2020 resulted in a two-week disruption at the Sabine Pass LNG export facility and well over a month at Cameron LNG.

Last year, Hurricane Ida resulted in a major and long-lasting curtailment of offshore gas production.

This year, a June explosion at the Texas-based Freeport LNG facility knocked nearly 20% of US LNG export capacity offline, sending LNG markets into a tailspin.

Scientists say the Gulf coast hurricanes are becoming increasingly severe, causing record-breaking compound flooding and placing critical infrastructure at risk.

Meanwhile, whereas the United States has the world’s largest lineup of new LNG projects in the works, there are also limits to how far this can go without more pipeline capacity to accommodate this wildly expanding energy segment.

In the Appalachian Basin, the country’s largest gas-producing region churning out more than 35 Bcf/d, environmental groups have repeatedly stopped or slowed down pipeline projects and limited further growth in the Northeast. This leaves the Permian Basin and Haynesville Shale to shoulder much of the growth forecast for LNG exports. Indeed, EQT Corp. (NYSE: EQT) CEO Toby Rice recently acknowledged that Appalachian pipeline capacity has “hit a wall.”

Analysts at East Daley Capital Inc. have projected that U.S. LNG exports will grow to 26.3 Bcf/d by 2030 from their current level of nearly 13 Bcf/d. For this to happen, the analysts say another 2-4 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity would need to come online between 2026 and 2030 in the Haynesville.

“This assumes significant gas growth from the Permian and other associated gas plays. Any view where oil prices take enough of a dip to slow that activity in the Permian and you’re going to have even more of a call for gas from gassier basins,” the analysts have said.

Mozambique To The Rescue

Though it may be rather late in the game, Europe is beginning to seriously consider Africa for its future energy supplies. Most notably, Mozambique is poised to ship its first cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe at this critical time.

This, too, is fraught with vulnerabilities in the form of political instability and insurgency.

French TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project has been sidelined by insurgency. Italian Eni’s Coral-Sul FLNG is safe from the violent flashpoint and on track to help serve Europe, with BP already having inked a deal to buy all of the output for 20 years from the $7-billion Coral-Sul project, designed to produce 3.4 million metric tons of LNG. The Italian company is already planning a second floating export platform in the southern African country that could be completed in less than four years.

But nothing is certain here.

In the heart of the insurgency, TotalEnergies has announced plans to resume its massive $20 billion project toward the end of the year, with the terminal expected to churn out 13.1 million tons of LNG annually. That is, if it ever gets past the insurgency that led to a declaration of force majeure. The project hopes to restart in the first half of next year.

Optimism runs high, despite all. ExxonMobil says it will make a final decision for an even larger project in the near future. Meanwhile, the European Union has planned a five-fold increase in financial support to $15 million to fight militants near Mozambique’s gas projects. The EU has already pledged to provide the country's army with an additional 45 million euros ($45 million) of financial support, and has so far given a SADC mission in the country 2.9 million euros of funding.

Over the short-term, Europe is making headway in filling up its gas storage, and is now nine weeks ahead of where it was this time last year–even if it has come at a hefty premium. European gas storage levels are above 70%, and have even surpassed the 5-year average, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).

By November 1st, the EU will likely hit 80% natural gas storage capacity--just in time for peak winter demand. Germany is even aiming for 95% capacity, and is already at 85%.

"The EU already surpassed its September 1 interim filling target in early July and is still on pace to reach the November 1 target," Jacob Mandel, senior associate for commodities at Aurora Energy Research, has told Reuters. Indeed, analysts at Standard Chartered Plc are saying that President Vladimir Putin’s gas weapon will be effectively blunted by the inventory build, with Europe set to go through winter “comfortably” without Russian gas.

This, however, poses two different problems. First, Europe will have to pay a heavy price: the cost of replenishing natural gas stocks is estimated at over 50 billion euros ($51 billion), 10 times more than the historical average for filling up tanks ahead of winter. Second, the bloc can’t survive on storage alone unless it severely reduces consumption for the winter.

Europe, as it stands, is vulnerable on every energy front, and if it’s not geopolitics and insurgency, it’s Mother Nature at her wildest.

Russia’s Nordstream 2 Gas Pipeline is Ready to Open for Business

VLADIVOSTOK, September 7. /TASS/. Russia is ready to start pumping gas through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday at the Eastern Economic Forum.

“We are not building anything for no reason. We have received and perfected the necessary technology. We will turn on Nord Stream 2 if necessary,” Putin said.

According to him, Nord Stream 1 is currently virtually closed, and the West claims that Moscow is using the gas pipeline as an energy weapon. “Nonsense. We supply as much as our partners need – we fulfil whatever they put in the application,” Putin added.

Organised by the Roscongress Foundation, the Seventh Eastern Economic Forum will be running from September 5 to September 8 in Vladivostok. TASS is the event’s general information partner and its official photohost agency. This year, the theme of the forum is: “On the Path to a Multipolar World.”

Putin Threatens Complete Energy Cut Off To West If Price Caps Are Imposed

Russia will stop supplying all energy products to Europe if the EU and its Western allies impose price caps on Russian oil and natural gas, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday.

"There are contractual obligations. Will there be any politically-driven decisions that contradict contracts? Yes, we just won't fulfil them. We will not supply anything at all if it contradicts our interests," Putin said at an economic forum in Russia's Far East city of Vladivostok.

"We will not supply gas, oil, coal, heating oil - we will not supply anything," Putin added.

The planned price caps on Russian oil and gas exports is yet another "stupidity," the Russian president said, adding that Europe has made "stupid decisions" and is now trying to figure out how to get away from them.

Last week, the G7 group of the most industrialized nations agreed to finalize and implement a price cap on Russian oil, aiming to reduce Vladimir Putin's oil revenues for his war chest.

Russia, for its part, said it would not be selling its oil to countries that choose to adhere to the price cap and would increase its shipments of oil to Asia after the G7 finance ministers announced a price cap on Russian oil and fuels, to enter into effect from December 5 and February 5, 2023, respectively.

The EU will propose a cap on Russian gas to cut Putin's revenues as part of a wider set of immediate measures to address Europe's energy crisis and help households and industries through the energy market turmoil, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday. The proposed measures include a mandatory target for the EU to cut power consumption at peak hours, a revenue cap on electricity producers and fossil fuel companies, and a price cap on Russian gas.

The EU energy ministers are meeting on Friday when they are expected to discuss a price cap on Russian gas and electricity market reforms such as decoupling the price of gas from power prices.

Record U.S. LNG Exports To Europe May Not Last

The United States and its natural gas have been vital for Europe’s attempt to fill its gas storage ahead of this winter season. Yet record U.S. LNG exports have led to a surge in domestic gas prices. The boomerang is coming back. When President Joe Biden promised the European Union there would be enough natural gas for its winter, EU politicians rejoiced and doubled down on Russian sanctions. A few months later, EU gas storage is full ahead of schedule.

Meanwhile, however, LNG prices have soared like an eagle, China is re-selling Russian LNG to Europe, and gas prices in the U.S. are three times higher now than they were a decade ago and up 95 percent on the futures market for November 2022 to March 2023. And most analysts in Europe are talking about a recession.

That U.S. LNG was not going to be enough was clear from the beginning. As energy analyst David Blackmon, for example, has repeatedly warned since March, there is plenty of natural gas in the ground in the U.S., but far from all of it is being extracted. There are, in other words, purely physical constraints to U.S. gas exports to Europe.

Then there is the price issue. Right now, U.S. LNG is competitive because of the insane curve the European gas futures market has been following as Gazprom squeezed Nord Stream 1 shipments in response to sanctions. But this does not mean U.S. LNG is cheap. In fact, it is not cheap at all, which is what swelled the EU’s gas storage refill bill to 10 times its usual.

Now, there is another price issue in the home of U.S. LNG. This is a problem that there were also warnings about earlier this year. In fact, earlier this year, investment firm Goehring & Rozencwajg forecast that U.S. natural gas prices were about to take off after European ones before too long.

The reasons for the surge were overall tight gas supply and U.S. producers’ new central role as biggest suppliers to Europe. Also, Goehring & Rozencwajg predicted U.S. gas production was nearing a plateau.

Right now, gas production is on a strong rise, so prices fell this week but remain much higher than they had been for the last couple of decades, prompting the beginning of what could become a major backlash against stronger LNG exports.

“We appreciate that the [Joe] Biden administration has been working with European allies to expand fuel exports to Europe. A similar effort should be made for New England,” a group of governors from New England wrote in a letter to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm this summer, per a Financial Times report.

They went on to ask Washington to help their states—Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont—secure enough liquefied natural gas for the winter. What this means is that the governors asked Washington to reduce exports and redirect some LNG to local consumers.

Granholm’s answer to the governor, per the FT, was to say that the administration was “prepared to use all the tools in our toolkit” to help, but she also added there were not going to be any “blanket waivers” from the Jones Act that effectively restricts transport between U.S. ports to only vessels that are U.S.-built, U.S.-flagged, and U.S-crewed. In other words, no foreign-flagged vessel could load LNG in Texas and ship it to Maine, which limits New England’s options.

This letter by the New England governors may be a sign of more trouble to come Washington’s way because of its ambition to help energy-starved Europe. Of course, this trouble would be nowhere near the proportions of the European disaster, thanks to the fact that the U.S. produces all the natural gas it consumes. Yet higher prices are not something consumers or businesses welcome, especially in the middle of a war on inflation.

“LNG exports have already resulted in substantially increased inflation via higher natural gas and electric power prices,” wrote the Industrial Energy Consumers of America group in a regulatory filing cited by the FT.

How bad high electricity prices are for business profitability and consumer spending can be clearly seen from a glimpse at Europe right now. Just because it can’t get this bad in the United States, after all, does not mean that it can’t get bad enough for Washington to start worrying.

For now, there are no indications that the administration is prepared to pressure LNG exporters into keeping more of their gas at home, not least because exports are already constrained by the Freeport LNG outage. But pressure from consumer organizations might increase as the northern hemisphere moves closer to winter and energy consumption climbs higher.

Price pressure on consumers is also playing its role: a lot of Americans are saying that while they are happy to help Ukraine and the Europeans in their time of hardship, they are not prepared to foot the bill for that hardship. One can’t really argue with that, especially if one wants to keep control—thin as it is—of Congress for the next two years.

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, gas reserves contained in Europe's underground gas storage facilities were replenished by 58.4 billion cubic meters as of September 13. Companies will have to inject another 14 billion cubic meters of gas into the UGS facilities to get them to the levels observed at the start of the 2019–2020 withdrawal period.

Nevertheless, even getting the UGS facilities of major European countries to almost maximum levels of reserves would not guarantee a reliable performance in the upcoming autumn/winter period (AWP).

For instance, Germany's gas consumption in the preceding AWP (from October 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022) totaled 57 billion cubic meters, i.e. 9.5 billion cubic meters per month on average. Germany's UGS facilities are currently 89 per cent full, and their working gas inventories amount to 19.3 billion cubic meters. This means that the amounts of gas currently contained in Germany's storages are comparable to the average volume that is consumed within two (out of six) months of the AWP.

German Regulator Warns Of Severe Gas Shortage In A Cold Winter

Germany's natural gas supply faces its toughest test yet, and that test won’t come from Putin.

Suppose the coming winter is colder than usual. In that case, Germany could see severe nationwide gas shortages, which it will not be able to predict more than two weeks in advance, Klaus Müller, the president of Germany's Federal Network Agency, Bundesnetzagentur, told German business daily Handelsblatt in an interview published on Wednesday.

"I can't give an exact forecast of where the risk of a shortage is the greatest," Müller told Handelsblatt.

"If we get a very cold winter, we have a problem."

Due to the weather forecasts, Germany will not be able to predict gas demand more than two weeks in advance, he added.

It's good that storage is filling faster than expected, Müller said.

Despite faster storage builds than usual, Germany will only have enough natural gas to cover two and a half months of consumption this winter if Russia completely suspends deliveries, Müller said in the middle of August.

Two weeks later, Russia shut down Nord Stream, the main gas export pipeline to Germany, saying it wouldn't reopen until Western sanctions impeding gas turbine repairs in the West are not lifted.

Gas storage sites in Germany were nearly 89% full as of September 14, higher than the EU average of 84.5% full storage, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

The EU has achieved its 80% gas storage use target two months ahead of November 1, but gas in storage covers only 20%-25% of annual consumption in the bloc, Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday as it raised its European TTF and U.S. Henry Hub gas price assumptions in the short and medium term.

Meanwhile, the German government could step in to buy a stake in another big gas importer – VNG AG – after rescuing Uniper earlier this summer, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing sources with knowledge of the situation.

U.S. Energy Producers Warn European Buyers: No Bailout Is Coming

The threat of power rationing across Europe persists even after EU officials held an emergency meeting last week to starve off the impending winter energy crisis. EU countries have increasingly relied on US energy imports, though shale bosses warned the ability to boost oil and gas supplies would be challenging.

"It's not like the US can pump a bunch more. Our production is what it is," Wil VanLoh, head of private equity group Quantum Energy Partners, one of the shale's most prominent investors, told Financial Times.

"There's no bailout coming," VanLoh added.

"Not on the oil side, not on the gas side.

Europe can thank the Democrats and the Biden administration for their war against crushing the US energy industry that led to massive divestments across the sector, which crippled oil production growth and refining capacity, and pressured/shamed the world into withdrawing any capital allocations to fossil fuels.

Ben Dell, chief executive of private equity group Kimmeridge Energy, said the shale industry’s investors on Wall Street would not give their blessing to a big production increase, preferring a low-production, high-profit model.

“Investors generally don’t want shale companies to pursue a growth model,” he said.

“The capital availability is extremely limited.”

Rig counts in the US have started to fall and production has flatlined well below pre-pandemic levels...

On top of the Democrat-led crippling of the US energy industry, EU leaders have been on an ESG-crazed mission to decarbonize their power grids with renewable (now finding out -- not so reliable) energy and are frantically bringing back crude oil, coal, and natural gas power generators ahead of the cold season. Some EU countries are even extending the life of nuclear power plants.

The problems don't end there -- in 80 days, or on Dec. 5, the EU will embark on another suicide mission of banning seaborne imports of Russian crude. Then on Feb. 5, 2023, a ban on Russian petroleum product imports kicks in. These sanctions were enacted over the summer. However, piped imports of Russian crude and petroleum products will be exempt in some EU member countries, like Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.

Back to the US shale patch where Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, explained significant production increases aren't coming online:

"We're not adding [drilling] rigs and I don't see anyone else adding rigs," said Sheffield, who runs one of the biggest oil producers in the US. He added that crude prices could rise above $120 a barrel this winter as supplies tighten.

Shale's inability to rapidly increase crude production is no surprise, regarding Halliburton Co.'s CEO Jeff Miller and Exxon Mobile's Darren Woods's warnings over the summer that markets will remain tight for years due to a lack of production growth.

A perfect storm of factors plagues Europe: the inability of US shale to ramp up production (because of Democrat's war on oil), Russia reducing energy exports, grid decarbonization, and EU's Russian oil embargos.

... and why could crude prices have bottomed earlier this week? Well, maybe Bloomberg's report that Biden administration officials plan to refill the SPR when crude falls around $80 a barrel. Also, SPR draws end in October, which means less crude on the market and possibly higher prices. Even as demand in China slumps, cities are reopening from Covid lockdowns, a sign demand could soon rise in Asia.

Europe’s Economy And Living Standards Are Plummeting

The ill-considered sanctions against Russia have exposed the most acute problems of Europe which is rapidly losing its economic power. A tremendous amount of businesses are on the verge of bankruptcy. A flood of migrants from Africa, the Middle East and Ukraine requires more and more budget spending. Funds are also being used to support the Kiev regime. As a result, Europe’s economies are deteriorating and living standards are plummeting.

Enterprises are on the verge of closing
In Britain 60% of enterprises are on the verge of closing due to higher electricity prices. This is reported by the analytical group Make UK, representing the interests of British industry. 13% of British factories have reduced working hours and 7% are temporarily closing down. Electricity bills have risen by more than 100% compared to last year.

In Germany, according to the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, the number of firms and individuals went bankrupt in August alone rose 26% compared to the same period last year. The figure was significantly higher than German analysts had forecast. According to experts, during the autumn the number of bankruptcies will only increase. This is connected with the increase of the cost of production processes, in particular with the rise in prices for energy.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledged that many Germans have faced with rising prices for fuel and food. Most countries in Europe were in a similar situation. But the authorities are sacrificing the quality of people’s lives in order to continue to exert pressure on Russia.

The crisis is just ahead
At the same time, many experts believe the stopping of Nord Stream will cause Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades.

This circumstance has already caused a sharp rise of prices of energy resources on the European market. As a result, energy bills of European households have increased. According to Goldman Sachs’ analysts, its cumulative cost will peak in early 2023, increasing by 2 trillion euros. It has also led to a record depreciation of the European currency over the past 20 years.

The increased cost of gas, heat and electricity has an adverse effect on the living standard of the people. But an even more dangerous problem is the falling liquidity of European products produced at the new cost of energy. European products are becoming uncompetitive on the world market: their price is much higher because of the cost of electricity and gas.

Attempts by EU leaders to introduce a price cap on energy from Russia have completely failed.

“Europe reaps what it sows”
European countries are themselves to blame for the problems they face this coming winter because of reduced gas supplies from Russia, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said. According to him, “Europe reaps what it sows”, while Turkey “has no problems with gas supplies”.

The crisis in Europe is a result of political mistake. On one hand, sanctions against Russia, are favorable only to the U.S. And on the other, the imposition of the post-hydrocarbon economy on Europeans has shown its insolvency.

As a result, energy prices in Asia and Latin America today are much lower. And so are the wages of production workers. In other words, European products are totally uncompetitive. And we see a decrease in the liquidity of those products on the market. As a consequence, the European economy begins to plunge into recession. In particular, Christian Sewing, Director General of Deutsche Bank, said on September 7 that Germany is no longer able to avoid recession. Already at the moment it is buying significantly less raw materials from major suppliers such as Brazil, Argentina and the U.S.

The Economist Intelligence Unit, a British think tank, predicts that GDP growth in 2023 will be: 5.3% in China, 5.1% in India, 1.2% in the United States, 0.3% in France, 0.3% in Brazil. And it will be negative in a number of countries: minus 0.6% in the UK, minus 1% in Germany, and minus 1.3% in Italy.

Poverty is coming
The next logical consequence will be mass production closures and rising unemployment. European technology companies are already reducing the number of high-paying engineering positions. In September, German wind turbine manufacturer Siemens Gamesa announced its intention to reduce the number of employees to 1,500 people.

In turn, rising unemployment will cause a drop in living standards and an additional burden on government budgets, as the fight against poverty requires additional social spending.

European economies survive through stimulus. But this exacerbates inflation. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said, “You can’t help everyone, so we in the West will be a bit poorer because of the high inflation, the high energy costs”.

Migrants are ruinous to the budget
Meanwhile, the energy crisis and production problems have been exacerbated by migration policies that require additional budgetary injections into the social sphere.

Migrant influx into European countries over the past two decades has been less than 1 million people a year. But already last year, 1.3 million people entered the countries, and this year, there were already 1.8 million people. We must take into account the fact that some immigrants enter Europe illegally and are not registered. They are primarily residents of Somalia, Nigeria, Gambia, Iran, Pakistan, Mali, Afghanistan, Eritrea and Syria.

Moreover, more than 10 million people left Ukraine since the end of February. Of these, at least 6 million people remain in European countries, while 3.7 million have already received refugee status. The average cost per such migrant is 7,000 euros per year. Even without Ukrainians, Germany alone spends 25 to 55 billion euros annually on refugee aid.

The European economy could afford these enormous expenditures before the energy crisis. But now the situation is such that expenditures are only increasing while revenues are falling.

Following the catastrophic electricity and heating bills, Europe’s population is facing mass unemployment, followed by a decline in social support from the state. These processes inevitably lead to an overall decline in living standards.