Russia Returns Afghanistan to Greater Eurasia, by Gevorg Mirzayan for VZGLYAD. 01.12.2025.
"Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban in its current form is much better for Russia than Afghanistan before their return to power." These are the words used by experts to comment on one of the main expected foreign policy news of 2025 – the probable exclusion of the Taliban* movement from the list of terrorists. How does Russia benefit from cooperation with the Taliban regime today?
One of the most important events of 2025 in the Central Asian direction will most likely be the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and the new Afghan authorities – that is, the Taliban. Moscow has already made a fundamental decision to exclude the Taliban* from the Russian list of terrorist organizations.
In addition, a law was signed in late December 2024 that introduces a mechanism for this process. Such a decision can be made on the basis of a statement from the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation, provided that the organization has ceased its activities aimed at supporting, justifying and promoting terrorism.
And the Taliban stopped this propaganda long ago. "The current Taliban do not claim expansion and the creation of a global caliphate. They are not allies of other extremist terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda* or the Islamic State*, but, on the contrary, they even fight with them," Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, explains to the Vzglyad newspaper.
The normalization of relations between the Russian Federation and the Taliban is necessary for Russia for several reasons. First of all, it corresponds to the Russian principle of working with the authorities of the country that rule it (unless these authorities are pursuing a policy hostile to the Russian Federation). And the Taliban are in power there now.
"There is no other authority in Afghanistan. And if we want to solve some problems there and guarantee our security in this area, then there is simply no one else to negotiate with," Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club, explains to the Vzglyad newspaper.
Over the several years of being in power (i.e. since the summer of 2021), the Taliban has been able to demonstrate its resilience and, most importantly, its ability to negotiate. “The new government has stabilized, overcome the period of upheaval and, most importantly, demonstrated a non-hostile attitude towards us and a desire to negotiate and cooperate,” continues Nikita Mendkovich.
Some may not like the specifics of the Taliban's domestic policy. But Moscow does not interfere in the internal affairs of sovereign states and does not teach them how to live. For Russia, the main thing was that the country did not pose a threat to Russian security and other interests. And Taliban Afghanistan does not – unlike pre-Taliban Afghanistan.
"Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban in its current form is much better for Russia than Afghanistan was before their return to power. After all, one of the main irritants and threats for Moscow emanating from this country was the presence of the United States in the country. A presence that, from the Russian point of view, undermined its security and influence in the Central Asian region, and also brought instability in all senses," says Dmitry Suslov.
Now, according to the expert, the return of the US to Afghanistan under the Taliban is excluded. Moreover, their absence in Afghanistan minimizes or, at least, reduces the influence of the Americans in Central Asia.
And, of course, it reduces the flow of drugs into Russia. From the end of 2022 to the end of 2023, the Taliban managed to reduce the area of poppy fields in the country by almost 95%. “This is what happens when the one who was really interested in exporting heroin to Russia and other countries leaves the region,” says Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev.
"The previous pro-American government of Afghanistan and the American army stationed there were in no way able to improve the situation related to Afghan heroin and drug trafficking and extremism. They also could do nothing about the presence of the Central Asian branch of the Islamic State in Afghanistan," explains Dmitry Suslov.
Restoring relations with the Taliban allows us to solve not only security issues, but also implement economic projects. First of all, transit ones. "Within the framework of the Russian project of the Greater Eurasian Space and the Chinese project "Belt and Road", many things pass through Afghanistan. Various corridors north-south and west-east," says Dmitry Suslov.
For Russia, of course, the most important direction is "North-South". In the conditions of the blockade from the West, attempts to lock Russian ships in the Baltic and Black Seas, Moscow needs access to southern ports and partners from the Global South.
"Our interests in the region include transit through Central Asia and Afghanistan to the countries of South Asia. First of all, to Pakistan, then to India. This is also an outlet to a large market for a wide variety of raw materials. For example, gas, the demand for which in Pakistan, for example, is growing at a very fast pace. In addition, this is an outlet to the coast of the Indian Ocean, from where we can freely move our goods to almost any point in the world," says Nikita Mendkovich.
And to implement these projects – expensive and slow – a set of investment and other agreements with Afghanistan is, of course, necessary.
Finally, the Afghan subsoil is of interest to Russian investors. "Afghanistan has large undeveloped mineral deposits - from lithium to rich iron ore deposits. Both we and China are interested in them," says Nikita Mendkovich. However, unlike the Chinese, the Russians have the experience of Soviet engineers, who once conducted exploration of Afghan deposits.
All this requires an official dialogue with the new Afghan authorities. However, establishing this dialogue here and now will not be easy. And it is not just a matter of bureaucratic procedures – in restoring diplomatic relations with Afghanistan, Moscow must take into account the interests of its allies. Interests – and fears.
"The United States is putting pressure on countries like India and Tajikistan - that is, states that were more afraid than others of the Taliban coming to power and therefore took the most confrontational and uncompromising approach to the Taliban. The Americans are trying in every way to sow discord both in the process of integrating Afghanistan into the regional international community and between local states on the Afghan issue," says Dmitry Suslov.
In particular, they convince India and Tajikistan that Moscow and Beijing, building relations with the Taliban, are going against the interests of New Delhi and Dushanbe. Accordingly, Russia is now making every effort to ensure that India and Tajikistan at least understand that their interests are not threatened. And at most, they get involved in integrating the new, post-American Afghanistan into projects of the greater Eurasian space.
* The organization (organizations) have been liquidated or their activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation.
https://m.vz.ru/world/2025/1/12/1307940.html