A poster on MoA has put some interesting stuff up that I felt might raise some interest here
The more I observe and study the SMO as it unfolds, the more I understand that Putin really is playing a game of 6D chess (*wince*).
What are the dimensions of this "6D chess"?
Dimension 1: The Economic
Dimension 2: The Geopolitical
Dimension 3: The Military
Dimension 4: The Diplomatic
Dimension 5: Time (Nature)
Dimension 6: Technology
These dimensions are interdependent and reinforce or undermine each other depending on how they are developed.
They either limit or expand the range of options Russia has in it's death match against the 'West'.
Therefore they must be carefully developed in order to ensure overall victory in the game.
- The Military dimension would fail utterly without the economic, technological and geopolitical dimensions and therefore Putin had to ensure these dimensions were properly developed.
- The Economic dimension depends utterly on the diplomatic and technological dimensions and therefore Putin had to ensure a sophisticated diplomatic battle was conducted at all times.
- The Geopolitical dimension itself depends on the military and diplomatic dimensions
- The Technological dimension sustains the military, economic and even geopolitical dimensions and without Putin's direction of the Russian state to ensure technological advancement from the ruins of what Yeltsin left behind, Russia would be a technological backwater today, and consequently a military and geopolitical backwater as well.
- Without careful Diplomatic gamesmanship, the economic and geopolitical support Russia has obtained from non-western nations would not have materialized.
- All these dimensions depend on careful Timing, on allowing certain events to unfold far enough to exploit them at the right time. Without the careful application of Timing the relationships between all these dimensions are destabilized and potentially destroyed.
What is remarkable is how each of these dimensions fit together so logically in retrospect, as if Putin saw all this happening two decades in advance and had begun laying the groundwork while western leaders were still muddling their way through their respective political and personal intrigues.
Taking a very brief "sampling" of how this multi-dimensional game has unfolded in each area thus far:
Dimension 1: The Economic
- Putin has spent years turning Russia into an Autarky, having zero reliance on the West or it's lackeys for *any* critical imports.
- Yet, Putin has ensured Russia is a key supplier of critical resources from oil to neon and titanium to it's enemies, and it's friends
- Putin has spent 20 years or more building out or reinforcing the network of gas and oil pipelines across central asia, ensuring an "economic circulatory system" is in place from Asia to Central Asia.
- Alternatives to SWIFT between Russia and it's major trading partners
- Huge gold and forex reserves
- Strong currency controls
- Ability to trade in native currencies with it's major trading partners
- etc ...
It's clear that without Putin's careful stewardship of the economic dimension none of the others would be sustainable.
Dimension 2: The Geopolitical
- Began with the annexation of Crimea in anticipation of what was to come ...
- The construction of arctic military and research capabilities (including icebreakers and floating nuclear power stations) to control Russia's arctic resources
- The intervention in Syria to ensure a Russian "lever" in the middle east.
- The somewhat clandestine initial support of the LPR, DPR, Abhkazia and Ossetia, pacification of Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan (the Caucasus)
- Foundation of the CSTO
Without Putin's stewardship of these geopolitical aspects the Russian Federation would have been far more vulnerable to western destabilization efforts in central asia, limiting his options in the SMO.
Dimension 3: The Military
- Development of an anti-terrorism and anti-insurgency capability during the North Caucasus troubles and the terrorism at Beslan and Moscow.
- Reform of the Russian military based on the lessons of the Georgian and Syrian wars
Without the lessons of the Georgian and Syrian war, it's likely the Russian invasion of Ukraine would have founded at the 2014/2015 contact line.
Dimension 4: The Diplomatic
- OPEC+ : Development of good relations with the Gulf Oil Producers including Saudi Arabia
- Foundation and development of the CSTO
- Foundation and development of the SCO
- Development of close relations with China, India, Iran and African, South American, Central Asian states ... e.g via regular and consistent conduct of Military exercises with China and India
- Rapprochement with groups like the Taliban and Hamas and other groups considered "pariah" by the West
Without the development of diplomatic relations in all these areas, Russia would have found itself without any markets either in the West or the East, unable to easily switch from western markets to those in the east (India, China etc.) under sanctions conditions. Russia would also have found itself with no influence over the oil price via OPEC+ and perhaps, OPEC would otherwise have been more amenable to the "oil price cap" madness proposed by the West ...
Throughout the last 20 years we can clearly see Putin constantly accumulating diplomatic capital in order to spend it when absolutely necessary. This explains the constant "niceness" or "politeness" from which Lavrov and Putin. never seem to depart when dealing with the Global South and East.
(While critics were lambasting Putin for attending the military games in 2022 while Karkov was falling to the AFU, Putin was fighting a geopolitical and diplomatic battle to ensure victory in these key dimensions of the SMO)
Dimension 5: Time (Nature)
- We can clearly see Putin leveraging the onset of Winter, together with control of resources to support the aims of the SMO. We are about to see how Putin uses time, in combination with the seasons to deliver very impactful economic strikes against Western interests and the AFU in Ukraine.
- The timing of the annexation of Crimea. If Putin had hesitated it is very likely Crimea would be NATO (American) base by now. Putin chose to spend his diplomatic capital with the global south and East to prevent this.
- The timing of the Syrian intervention
Here we see how Putin uses time: Deliberately moving very quickly in some cases, and biding his time in others.
Dimension 6: Technology
- "Game Changing" Hypersonics and other weaponry
- Acceleration of the I.T industry to enhance cyberwarfare capabilities
- Development of local electronics industry to reduce dependence of western semiconductors
Without Putin's stewardship of the technological dimension the military, geopolitical and even economic dimensions of the overall SMO would have been impossible to develop.
I'll try and expand on this in posts to come.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 25 2022 5:28 utc | 259
A survey of the military, diplomatic, economic, technological and geopolitical options available to Russia in escalating the SMO over the next 6 to 24 months:
Russian military options for escalation:
1. Destruction of all railway power substations in *western* ukraine.
2. Destruction of all power and water supplies to Kiev, Lvov and other key cities in western Ukraine.
3. Closure (by missile strike) of the Transcarpathian railway tunnel
4. Destruction (by missile strike) of key dams in *western* Ukraine
5. Complete closure of the the port of Odessa
6. Destruction of main wired telecomms infrastructure and cellular towers.
7. Destruction of all major bridges in *western* Ukraine
8. Heavy carpet bombing runs of major AFU troop concentrations around the line of contact
9. Land bridge to Transdnistria, and basing of expanded Russian forces in Transdnistria
Russian geopolitical options:
10. Supply of S300 - S400 systems to Syria, Iran and North Korea.
11. Recognition of the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan
12. Removal of any/all sanctions against NK and Iran observed in conjunction with UN 'law'
13. Enhancement of ICBM forces in the Arctic, Kaliningrad, Crimea
14. Launch of additional military satellites
15. Supply of S300 - s400 air defense systems to Venezuela
16. Supply of strategic submarine systems to Iran and North Korea
17. Incorporation of Transdnistria into the Russian Federation
18. Incorporation of Odessa into the Russian Federation
Russian Diplomatic options
19. Full disclosure online of documents captured from the American biolabs in Ukraine
20. Full disclosure online of Ukrainian PoW confessions
21. Creation of a direct UN rival organisation for the Global South, Central Asia, Eastasia, Southeast Asia, Africa
22. Creation of a humanitarian supply organisation for direct supply of humanitarian grain, gas, oil supplies to countries like Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Gaza, Lebanon
23. Proposal and implementation of a second meeting location for the UN GA in neutral territory to prevent visa sanctioning of officials
24. Recognition of the Native American genocide committed under American colonialism.
25. Recognition of the Mau Mau genocide committed under British Colonialism
26. Formal condemnation of any UN claims of Chinese Uighur genocides
27. Full restoration of economic and diplomatic relations with North Korea with full military and infrastructure development assistance to NK.
Economic options
28. Ban of neon direct sale to western countries (via China only!)
29. Ban of titanium direct sale to western countries (via Iran only)
30. Ban of gas supplies to Europe *except via* Iran, Armenia, Belarus and other friendly nations
31. Further development competitor systems to SWIFT
32. Development of offshore banking solutions to compete with those offered by Switzerland, Cayman, Isle of Man, Guernsey etc.
33. Massive expansion of Aluminium production and sale to reduce the competitiveness of Western aluminium producers
34. Implementation of an International Development Bank along the lines of the Asian Development Bank for Central Asia/Southeast Asia
35. Completion of Power of Siberia 2 (2022 - 2024)
36. Completion of the Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan pipeline to China
Technological options
37. Collaboration with China and Iran on development of semiconductor fabs including EUV systems to rival ASML.
38. Ramp up of civilian nuclear reactor projects in the global south, middle east
39. Subsidy of a Russian private sector rival satellite network to Starlink
40. Massive expansion of the Russian drone development program
41. Complete replacement of Microsoft products with a rival software ecosystem developed by a russian, chinese, indian and iranian conglomerate.
42. Nullification of all US technology copyrights and royalties
43. Creation and subsidised development of a rival to Google capable of serving Central Asia, South/East Asia, Africa and South America
(I've excluded world ending options, of course)
I might only have covered a few of the available options and left out their caveats, however I think this list might explain Putin's generally calm and cheerful demeanor ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 25 2022 7:30 utc | 276
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/rekindling-its-iraq-wmd-fiasco-the-new-york-times-is-back-at-printing-officials-said/comments/page/3/#comments