https://aviation21.ru/rossiya-pristupila-k-obsluzhivaniyu-inostrannyx-lajnerov-s-registraciej-v-rf/
Might makes right...
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lancelot wrote:It is just like I said. Iran situation. They will service airplanes with their own facilities. They will do their own certification. They will put some airplanes aside and cannibalize them for parts. They will try doing their own fixes to parts. They will get parts in the black market. Sure there will be attrition. But international flights to the West have been cancelled. This likely cut down flights a lot. You will also still have Turkish, Middle Eastern, and Chinese airlines still flying to Russia. Other Asian airlines outside Japan and South Korea might start flying in. Like from Vietnam and Thailand. So who cares.
This mitigation strategy will keep aircraft flying in Russia until the Superjet-NEW and MC-21 start rolling off the assembly line in 2 years. Probably in 5 years production will attain a decent rate. That was always the long term goal anyway. To replace airplane imports. Russia would still be probably importing like half its aircraft. This way they will be importing none. Since the Chinese aircraft which could be an alternative will also be using Western components for the foreseeable future.
That leaves the long range aircraft segment like the 777X and A350. The CRAIC 929 will still take some time to get into service. Especially with these sanctions. The original flights were supposed to happen with Western engines and some of the other components. I think they will have to break the program into two. One will be an assembly plant in China with Western components in it. The other will be an assembly plant in Russia with no Western components in it which will come online later. In the meantime Russia can boost Il-96 production and make improved models. This large aircraft segment is low demand anyway so it will not be a problem.
I think it is also important that Russia develops its own ticketing and booking software system. They need to cooperate with other countries like India and China on this. Whichever Western software is being used needs to be ripped out.
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That leaves the long range aircraft segment like the 777X and A350. The CRAIC 929 will still take some time to get into service. Especially with these sanctions.
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JohninMK wrote:In extremis Russia could license favoured foreign airlines to operate on internal Russian routes. Much like happens in Europe.
Autodestruct wrote:That leaves the long range aircraft segment like the 777X and A350. The CRAIC 929 will still take some time to get into service. Especially with these sanctions.
I think the CR929 will have way too many Western components and technology to be useful to Russia. Russia's only hope their is their Il-96 derivative with 2 PD-35. In fact, I suspect CR929 may now be a stillborn project. The Chinese certainly can't sell them to Russia or service them there (or their own aerospace companies will come under sanctions). And the Chinese may also struggle to service the Russian components outside of Russia because of those same sanctions. (Unless if they work out financial agreements outside of the dollar and euro).
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Rodion_Romanovic wrote:JohninMK wrote:In extremis Russia could license favoured foreign airlines to operate on internal Russian routes. Much like happens in Europe.
A a temporariy fix maybe, but only for foreign routes between Russia and europe.
I find totally absurd that Ryanair and easyjet are covering many Italian routes (not even foreign flights, actual flights starting and ending between italian cities).Autodestruct wrote:That leaves the long range aircraft segment like the 777X and A350. The CRAIC 929 will still take some time to get into service. Especially with these sanctions.
I think the CR929 will have way too many Western components and technology to be useful to Russia. Russia's only hope their is their Il-96 derivative with 2 PD-35. In fact, I suspect CR929 may now be a stillborn project. The Chinese certainly can't sell them to Russia or service them there (or their own aerospace companies will come under sanctions). And the Chinese may also struggle to service the Russian components outside of Russia because of those same sanctions. (Unless if they work out financial agreements outside of the dollar and euro).
Well, the CR929 was planned to be assembled only in Shanghai anyway. Russia shall be able to maintain production of widebodies aircraft independently, even if maybe not covering the full production of aircrafts. Half of the other widebodies could be a "russianized" version of the CR929, possibly still assembled in Shanghai, but where the western components have been replaced (possibly with the same new components designed for the modified il96 derivative).
I do not see any problems for the Russian components for the Chinese airplanes. The 2 nations are stopping using dollars anyway. All the exchange will be done with the ruble and the yuan.
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Rodion_Romanovic wrote:I find totally absurd that Ryanair and easyjet are covering many Italian routes (not even foreign flights, actual flights starting and ending between italian cities).
In extremis Russia could license favoured foreign airlines to operate on internal Russian routes. Much like happens in Europe.
Previously some of the shorter intercontinental flights were covered by the Boeing 757 (also a narrowbody, similar in size to the Tu-204, but with a longer range (more than 7000km vs the about 4500 km of the tu204)).
(Unless if they work out financial agreements outside of the dollar and euro).
Several years ago an EU legislation appeared to allow this kind operation inside EU.
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GarryB wrote:
I could see a few airlines changing their headquarters so they can continue to fly through Russian airspace...
I know, that is another of the horrible EU laws.rigoletto wrote:Rodion_Romanovic wrote:I find totally absurd that Ryanair and easyjet are covering many Italian routes (not even foreign flights, actual flights starting and ending between italian cities).
Several years ago an EU legislation appeared to allow this kind operation inside EU.
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GarryB wrote:
And of course engine makers will be busy too... there should be an enormous number of new factory jobs coming up... and construction companies should be busy too....
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kvs wrote:There is no basis for this expectation in the west. Aside from hubris masturbation.
The economies of scale argument does not work since Russian domestic demand is enough to maintain an aircraft industry.
The extra cost from lack of "competition" is academic. In no way is it a show stopper. Russia clearly has all the technology
and infrastructure to manufacture its own aircraft and does not need any imports from the west. Avionics are not going
to kill this industry in Russia. It is just an adjustment process like Russia has proven over and over it can accomplish.
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Gazputin wrote:it always mystified me to be honest why they didn't keep making Tu-214s etc with PS-90 engines
all they had to do was subsidise the fuel to make them "competitive" with Airbuses etc
what difference does it really make to a country awash with oil and gas ?
and then create a special "Russia Arctic robust engine and aircraft frame safety spec" ....
that just happened to match Tu-214 spec exactly .... and nothing else ...
which therefore required a govt fuel subsidy to offset the greater weight of the "Arctic safe" aircraft ... the govt "stipulated"
all done in the finest traditions of western educated thieving lawyers and accountants ....
generally though
do you really want civil aircraft flying made out of tissue paper thin fuselages and have engine cores running at insane temperatures
just so some idiot can run a discount airline ?
.... the whole industry is totally f.ked up to me
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