Russian Civil Aviation: News #4

"Strength and safety": how the composite wing project for the new Russian liner MS-21 is being implemented, by Alexey Zakvasin, Maxim Lobanov, Nadezhda Alekseeva for Russian RT. March 31, 2022.

The Russian civil airliner MS-21 received a wing with the required level of strength. This was reported to RT in the Rostec aviation cluster. Earlier, UAC and TsAGI completed static tests of the caisson, the main power element of the wing. Tests have demonstrated the ability of the product to withstand a load one and a half times more than the maximum possible during operation. Wing for MS-21 is made of composites using vacuum infusion technology. Thanks to this, it has become lighter than its counterparts and has received high aerodynamic characteristics. According to experts, the new wing improves fuel efficiency and increases the range of the MS-21.

The main power element of the wing (caisson) of the new civil liner MS-21 has the required level of strength. This was told to RT in the Rostec aviation cluster following the results of recent static tests, during which composite products were subjected to breaking loads.

“Tests of the wing box have confirmed the correctness of the methods for calculating the strength of products made of composites. It has been experimentally proven that the main power element of the wing - the caisson - provides strength and safety under the most unfavorable combination of flight conditions. All liners under construction will be equipped with a wing made of domestic materials, ”RT said at the state corporation.

As Rostec explained to RT, the MS-21 wing is made of composite materials. This approach made it possible to reduce the mass of the structure, while maintaining high strength characteristics. In addition, the fuel efficiency of the liner is increased. Rostec recalled that today a very small number of passenger aircraft in the world are equipped with a composite wing, among them the American wide-body Boeing 787 Dreamliner and the European narrow-body A220.

Recently, the United Aircraft Corporation "Rostec" and the Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute. Professor N.E. Zhukovsky (TsAGI) completed static tests of the main power element of the MS-21 wing. The verification carried out revealed that the caisson is able to withstand a load one and a half times more than the maximum possible during operation.

“At the TsAGI stand, the caisson collapsed under a load exceeding the calculated one. The test was carried out in specially created climatic conditions. To take into account the effect of temperature on the strength characteristics of the composite material, part of the aircraft wing structure was heated, ”Rostec said in a statement.

Commenting on the test results to reporters, UAC General Director Yuri Slyusar noted that the test confirmed "the correctness of the methods for calculating the strength of composite products."

Director General of TsAGI, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Kirill Sypalo said that the institute has created an advanced experimental base, which allows "to conduct a huge amount of testing within the framework of the innovative MS-21 program."

On the black wing

The need to create a wing made entirely of domestic polymer composite materials arose in connection with the introduction of sanctions by the United States in 2018. The task of import substitution was entrusted to the teams of Moscow State University. Lomonosov, "Rosatom" and a number of enterprises of the aviation industry of the Russian Federation. The government allocated 4.4 billion rubles for the implementation of the project.

The first flight of the MS-21 with a wing made of domestic composites took place on December 25, 2021. The car was piloted by a crew of Heroes of Russia test pilots Roman Taskaev and Oleg Kononenko. The debut was successful: the pilots completed the flight task in full, the aircraft's systems worked normally.

In a December interview with RT, Vladimir Gutenev, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Industry and Trade , said that Russian scientists were able to quickly develop new composite materials for the so-called black wing of the MS-21 and patent the vacuum infusion technology, which “made it possible to make a wing of high elongation and improved aerodynamics ".

As Roman Gusarov, editor-in-chief of the Avia.ru portal, explained in an interview with RT, vacuum infusion, or infusion technology, allows you to literally bake airplane wings. The principle of this type of production is that the product is "built up" while in a vacuum bag.

“Our engineers have learned how to bake long wing panels in specially designed ovens. Thus, not only was a wing with a very good elongation and aerodynamic qualities obtained, but it was also possible to drastically reduce the weight characteristics of the product, because it no longer needs to be fastened with a large number of metal rivets, which seriously increase the weight, ”said Gusarov .

The result is a rigid polymer matrix. Vacuum infusion is convenient because it allows you to create any complex large-sized surfaces from composites without spending additional money.

Previously, the infusion technology was successfully mastered by UAC enterprises. This enterprise performs a full cycle of work on the manufacture of a wing for the MS-21. Then the products are delivered to the Irkutsk Aviation Plant, where a site has been set up for the final assembly of the liners.

In a conversation with RT, Anton Koren, General Director of the Center for Strategic Research in Civil Aviation, said that mastering the production of the "black wing" would allow the MS-21 to realize several important competitive advantages.

“The composite wing lightens the aircraft, which significantly improves fuel efficiency and increases the flight range. This is a significant operational advantage. To a large extent, it is the composite wing that makes the MS-21 a worthy competitor to foreign liners, ”Koren emphasized.

In general, according to the expert, the Russian industry has made great progress in integrating composites into MS-21 designs. The share of these modern materials in the liner is about 40%. According to the head of Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, this is a record figure for medium-haul aircraft in the world.

“The use of strong and lightweight composite materials made it possible to create a wing with unique aerodynamic characteristics that are unattainable for a metal wing. The improvement in aerodynamics made it possible to increase the width of the MS-21 fuselage and expand the cabin, which provides new advantages in terms of passenger comfort,” Chemezov said.

At the end of December, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that the Russian government would additionally allocate more than 61 billion rubles for the remaining development work under the MS-21 project, including import substitution.

'Russification" MS-21.

The Russian authorities do not hide the fact that the sanctions had a certain negative impact on the MS-21 program. In particular, American restrictions have shifted the launch date for the industrial production of the Russian airliner.

On March 22, during a briefing, the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, said that mass production of the MS-21 is planned to be launched in 2024. By this time, all certification procedures should be completed.

“Because any component that changes in an aircraft requires appropriate procedures and tests in order to meet all aviation safety requirements,” Manturov said.

As RT was explained in the Rostec aviation cluster, the MS-21 was originally created in broad international cooperation.

“This is a common global practice. Nevertheless, work on the import-substituting MS-21 has been going on for several years, now this process will be accelerated, ”the state corporation noted.

After the import substitution is completed, modifications of the MS-21 with a capacity of 163 to 211 passengers will be manufactured at the Irkutsk Aviation Plant. The UAC estimates the need of the Russian market for a new liner in the amount of 600 units. According to the corporation, the production capacity of the Russian Federation can reach the level of annual production of 72 aircraft.

The Rostec aviation cluster recalled that tests of the MS-21-310 with the Russian PD-14 engine are currently ongoing . In November, the liner with a domestic power plant was presented at the international aviation exhibition Dubai Airshow 2021.

Roman Gusarov believes that the Russian industry is close to launching large-scale production. According to him, this process is hindered only by certification procedures.

“The delayed start of mass production is forced and at the same time necessary due to the creation of domestic components that need to be certified. There is nothing critical in this. MS-21 remains the most advanced in its class. It outperforms its competitors in a number of ways. In addition, this liner has a huge modernization potential, ”Gusarov emphasized.

According to the interlocutor of RT, despite the fact that the sanctions imposed by the United States postponed the launch of the MS-21 production, the restrictive measures served as a good incentive for the development of the high-tech sector of the Russian Federation.

“Given the political situation, Russia would still have to create a “russified” MS-21. We need to produce hundreds of such aircraft, and in this matter we a priori should not depend on any Western manufacturers, ”summed up Gusarov.

https://russian.rt.com/russia/article/983766-keson-krylo-ms-21-importozameschenie

Proton-PM down the road from UEC in Perm apparently ....

as I understand it the PD-8 is passing normal forward thrust flight mode bench tests fairly easily ....
so the emphasis is now on the thrust reverser system
and TsAGI recently ok'd the engine nacelle design ..... so the thrust reverser seems to be the focus now ...

https://kosmosnews.fr/2022/03/31/roscosmos-proton-pm-creera-un-systeme-de-test-des-moteurs-pour-les-avions-ssj-100-et-be-200/

"Over the past thirty years, Russia has generally neglected its domestic aeronautical production, which means that on the one hand most of the Russian civil fleet is of foreign origin and that even domestically manufactured aircraft are totally dependent on foreign (Western) suppliers."

.... brilliant strategy, yes

"The company Proton-PM (which is part of the integrated structure of NPO Energomash of Roscosmos) will carry out work for the Perm plant "Mashinostroitel" on the manufacture of a test bench to test the thrust reversal device of the promising PD-8 aircraft engine, designed for Sukhoi Superjet 100 airliners and Be-200 amphibious aircraft. The developer of the engine is UEC-Saturn.

According to the agreement reached, Proton-PM specialists will design and install an automated test bench control system that simulates a similar system on the PD-8 engine. The product will provide the measurement, display and recording of operating parameters, allow you to manage the testing process. The contract also provides for the training of employees of the Mashinostroitel plant to work with the automation system.

Alexander Zyryanov, Head of the Proton-PM Automated Process Control Systems Department:

"The system is designed from scratch and automates the process of reversing the inversion device. The product will allow you to record the signals emitted and received and then analyze them. In emergency situations, the automated control system will ensure that the stand is turned off. All this minimizes the influence of the human factor and improves the quality of tests."

Proton-PM has experience and skills in creating automated process control systems. For the company's needs, specialists have created more than 40 control systems to test rocket engines and gas turbines, as well as their units. Customers of automation services include UEC-Perm Motors and the Perm Powder Plant."

https://www.aex.ru/docs/2/2022/3/30/3368/

"Switching from Boeing and Airbus to domestic aircraft will not work" (easily)

reckon he has it pretty much right .... raid the current Fed fleets and get all current stored aircraft back in the air

"I still understand that if it concerned the wide-body IL-96, we have no alternative to it. Although here, of course, there is a problem: there will be an engine for him, there will be a substantive conversation. But as for the medium-haul segment - in general, the conversation is about nothing!

In the end, if there is absolutely nothing to fly, then the Tu-204 and Tu-214 aircraft available in state aviation could be shared with civil airlines."

in other words .... use the stuff that is already fully assembled ....

the scale of the task is more understandable when you consider aircraft weights ....
eg an SSJ-100 weights 25 tons empty .... that's a lot of material in their
MC-21 probably 30 tons .... Il-96 .... holy shit 120 tons

I'd love to see the weight of the wiring loom on one of these things ....
here we go ... a Boeing 737 has around 60 kms of wiring

that explains the photo I saw of the Il-76 on that new production line recently
they had guys inside the fuselage as soon as it was docked starting the wiring even before the wings were on ....

so if you are targeting to build 40x SSJs p.a. ..... 40 x25 = 1000 tons of "bits"
MC-21 x70 p.a. @ 30tons = 2100 tons of "bits"

what did Russia say its passenger aircraft fleet was ? around 1000 ?
30,000 tons of "bits"

staggering numbers .... you will need lots of people making lots of "bits"

yeah I used to work in manufacturing and design .... sorry about obsessing there ...

"As for domestic models. The ban on the supply of components, which were present in large quantities and were laid down during the design of our two flagship models, I mean the Superjet 100 and the MS-21, forces us to actively and dynamically organize work on accelerated import substitution. This work is organized. Our aircraft manufacturers will organise three-shift work as part of their cooperation. But there will still be a shift of one or two years, so our initial plans for mass production are shifted. Previously, in the production of these two flagship models, we counted on the MS-21 to supply us with Pratt & Whitney engines, which will no longer be supplied. The serial volumes that we plan should now be completely replaced by the domestic PD-14 engine, so it is necessary to provide for the expansion of production at UEC enterprises for the production of this model.

Shifting the serial production of these two flagship models for a year and two, it will be filled by the organization of mass production of existing models, I mean the Tu-214 and, if necessary, the IL-96-400 - a wide-body aircraft. We never stopped producing them, but they were produced in limited series, mainly for special carriers.

And airlines have always not really looked at them because of one indicator - fuel efficiency.

But in the current conditions, this indicator can be neglected, and if necessary, and this was also discussed at the meeting, additional measures will be taken to restrain prices for aviation kerosene, so that we do not shift the cost of air tickets to the consumer, to passengers."

https://www.aviaport.ru/digest/2022/04/01/714547.html

brilliant thinking wasn't it ..... now it's hey ! I know !
let's subsidise the kero on Russian made airliners ! .... brain surgeons these guys

but even to this day in the article I attached in previous post
there are still engineers obsessing over beating or equaling Western made aircraft ... wtf for ?
sensible goal is obvious ....
get close to Western spec then just subsidise the fuel to make them just as competitive domestically re passenger ticket price

because .... and this is the key point
the West never intended to let Russian built planes get a share of the world export market anyway ...
.... these guys are seriously seriously seriously slow learners

but ... having just slagged the Rostec guy's obsession with beating or matching western equivalents re specs
... he is right about the mass production side of things

I did get what the Rostec guy was saying re building new Tu-214s ... "en-masse"
you are going to need a big open barn where you can fit out your Tu-214s as parts arrive
as you will probably end up with 5-10 aircraft in various states of build
more like a giant workshop than a factory production line

then you come to the issue of engines .... by default

as Gazprom who are the biggest purchaser by far of PS-90 derived turbines.... will probably have to go shopping at Kuznetsov or Saturn
to take the pressure off Perm ....

and there right on the same page .... article on Kuznetsov ... Gazprom gets a mention

https://www.aviaport.ru/news/2022/03/31/714347.html
"UEC-KUZNETSOV": CONSTRUCTION, OPTIMIZATION, PROSPECTS

"The main result of the work in 2021 of PJSC "UEC-Kuznetsov" (part of the "United Engine Corporation" of the State Corporation Rostec), the managing director of the enterprise Alexey Sobolev considers the full fulfillment of obligations for the supply of products. "We have made a mandatory program for 2021," he said, adding that the volumes and timing of deliveries to the Russian Defense Ministry, Tupolev PJSC, Gazprom PJSC and Roscosmos State Corporation were maintained in accordance with the contracts.

The greatest growth was achieved in terms of the production of gas turbine engines. In comparison with 2020, the volume of output increased by 42%."

42% increase ..... that reeks of Gazprom orders to me by far the biggest buyer of gas turbines in Russia ...
.... well done to someone

Gazputin wrote:staggering numbers .... you will need lots of people making lots of "bits"

Russia just needs to follow the East-Asian model as Glazyev is requesting for years and start investing in their hi-tech industry like there is no tomorrow. Lucky them, they can do actually interesting things unlike us Westerners, essentially limited to be tiny gears of fake financial economies whose only intent is to suck our societies dry.

"Over the past thirty years, Russia has generally neglected its domestic aeronautical production, which means that on the one hand most of the Russian civil fleet is of foreign origin and that even domestically manufactured aircraft are totally dependent on foreign (Western) suppliers."

.... brilliant strategy, yes

Russia has not be spending a lot of money or attention to civilian airliners because it is an incredibly tight market and even if Russia had spent serious resources the last 30 years building new planes, most of their customer market was eastern europe which is now gone and are not interested in buying new airliners and the rest of the world for which Boeing and Airbus hold a lot of strings regarding...

Spending the last 30 years trying to break into the civilian airlines market would have been a terrible waste of time and resources and is largely held up because of a lack of modern jet engines... which is something they have been spending money and resources on.

When they come on line over then next few years then decent steps forward in civil and military aircraft will be significant and achievable.

Russian airlines used subsidies from the Russian government to lease western aircraft, which has now bitten them in the ass, but to be fair there really was no Russian alternative at the time for them to choose to operate if they wanted to be competitive.

New engines even in slightly older aircraft can make an obsolete aircraft very competitive and even an aircraft of choice if you can have a choice of course.

Even when these planes are in production most will only be sold to Russian airlines or close allies airlines so demand for enormous production rates isn't going to be an issue for some time, and now that it is a problem they can take steps to ramp up production all round to cater for the change in the market.

For Alaskas sake this might last a while, so their airport will likely get a real economic boost... which is good for them, but Asian airlines able to fly through Russian airspace between Europe and Asia are the airlines who are really going to profit... along with Russia from the transit fees those airlines will be paying for the rights of transit.

Western airlines wont lose much transporting people to or from Russia but their trips to Asia are really going to suffer...

LMFS wrote:

Gazputin wrote:staggering numbers .... you will need lots of people making lots of "bits"

Russia just needs to follow the East-Asian model as Glazyev is requesting for years and start investing in their hi-tech industry like there is no tomorrow. Lucky them, they can do actually interesting things unlike us Westerners, essentially limited to be tiny gears of fake financial economies whose only intent is to suck our societies dry.

In some ways the timing is excellent. I mean that in terms of the multiplying effect of modern computers, amazing accuracy CAD controlled machines and especially 3D printing.

Garry it is absolutely not true that there weren't modern jet engines in the last 30 years.

There were not domestic jet engines for twin widebodies and for regional jets, but the PS-90 engines were almost on par with the CFM56 and IAE V2500 when they came out in 1992. As I wrote in my post above the problem was that the PS90 never received performance improvements while the CFM56 received several of them, so the gap between them grew bigger (but still below 10%, at least until the new generation western engines came out in 2016 (CFM Leap and PW1000 (geared turbofan).

This mean that the Tu204 and Il96 were basically almost on par with midranges narrowbodies  airbus A320 and Boeing 737 and with the 4 engine widebody Airbus A340 (which entered into service in 1993, practically at the same time as the Il96).

Yes the almost contemporary boeing777 and Airbus A330, being twinjets, offered better fuel efficiency, but Lufthansa, Swiss Air, South African airlines (and the Iranian mahan air) still keep flying with Airbus 340 even today (even if the airbus A340 will be probably retired also from Lufthansa and Swiss before 2024).

That means that Russia could have easily used Il96 with similar reasoning as Lufthansa using A340 in the same period.

And as far as Tu204, if the PS90 engines had received proper upgrades in time (during the 90s and early 2000s), (that would have been financed by the use of those engines and aircrafts in russian airlines), the fuel efficiency gap between  these aircrafts and the airbus a320 and Boeing 737 would have been even much smaller than 9% (at least until 2016).

Actually using russian aircraft and engines instead of buying or leasing western aircrafts could have brought much more money to invest in russian large engines, and a russian 30 tons thrust engine could have been created already in the 1990s if based on the core of the Tu-160 engines (possibly applying also some lessons learnt from the soviet ukrainian D18T engines of the An124).

Instead in the 90s a lot of competent russian engineers had nothing to eat because there was no money and no work...

Aviation market considerations
In addition to the Russian market there is also the Bielorussian state airline belavia (which has currently 13 Boeing 737 and 15 embraer regional jets).

Iran is also a potential large market for Russia, and there are large companies, like the private owned mahan air, that currently operates a relatively large fleet (38 aircrafts) of old western widebodies plus regional jets (additional 17 of them).

Also Africa could become a new market for Russia civil aviation.


P.S.
After the end of the ukrainian operation possibly also the Ukrainian airlines could be part of Russian civil aviation market (the state airline of Ucraine has currently 7 embraer regional jets, 16 Boeing 737 and 2 Boeing 767 widebodies)

there might be quite a few airframes around to use in the next couple of years ?
according to Planespotters lists

in reality the only "airline" to continue using Tu-204/214 and Il-96 were the govt fleets where kero costs were irrelevant

it does seem to me to show that the "elites" are accepting their share of the drama ....
they should release quite a few of the "Rossiya Special Fleet" aircraft for use by airlines to transport the commoners ....

https://www.planespotters.net/production-list/Tupolev/Tu-204
https://www.planespotters.net/production-list/Tupolev/Tu-214

https://www.planespotters.net/production-list/Ilyushin/Il-96

btw
one thing I noticed on Il-96s .... the ones with the longer body "400" models
their RA number .... the middle digit is a "1"
eg RA-96102

there seem to be 4x of them trundling around or in storage
seems S7 grabbed the 2 in storage the other day ?

another interesting list I stumbled upon re SSJ-100
catalogues the entire build when and who has what etc .... including upcoming

http://superjet.wikidot.com/register

yeah .... I was in a "list" mood today ...

btw
that PS-90 used on the Il-76-MD90A isn't so different to the engines on the C-17
bypass ratio isn't massively different

I have C-17s fly low over my roof all the time here where I live
quads are really cool .... like a V8

the C-17's PW-2000 engine is the correct engine to compare the PS-90 to I think

most people here in Oz think those C-17s are the best things our idiot military ever bought

interesting days ....
Tupolev in Tartarstan has quite a bit of resource nearby
Kazan Helicopters and Kamaz trucks ...
Kamaz will probably have a bit of spare capacity for a year or 2 ...

Even China can be a market for Russia, given they rely on Western engines, they may feel the need to introduce the PD14 or even other engines in Comac products or use directly Russian planes in regional routes, maybe a partnership where Chinese temporally build licensed Russian designs makes sense. Last accident has probably spooked officials, be it provoked or not, it has been a reminder of what could happen to such a huge fleet when it is not fully locally controlled.

By the time Tu-204 production could be ramped up to a large degree the 100% Russified MS-21 will be in production.
I think that ship has sailed. Modernized Il-96 still makes sense.

The European and US aircraft manufacturers were on the way out. Just look at the aircraft orders in the Russian aviation industry.
Other than some limited purchases of Western aircraft most orders were for Superjet and MC-21. Not being able to import Western components will delay those programs somewhat but it should not be critical.

that may well be true Lancelot
but you would think that Russia will finally have the commonsense to keep a few bigger options open and not bet the bank on 1x plane
but I agree that the Tu "factory" will resemble of giant workshop rather than a flowline

I personally would be getting those Rus Govt planes out to civil asap
gathering up the stored Tu's and getting them in the air too .... newest ones first

and in the background get the Tu-214 line back up to a higher build rate - but using resources other than those required to make the MC-21
Tartarstan isn't exactly short of engineering and manufacturing resources

surely they are doing that already ....

that S7 Airlines are getting reamed aren't they .... idiots didn't have 1x Russian made plane ...

btw

was I reading that press release ?
they intend to build and deliver 2x MC-21-300s with the PW engines this year
as they have 6 engines apparently .... and keep the other 2 for spares ?

use them on runs near Irkutsk would make sense ... close to where they were built
does make a bit of sense - no point having them clogging up storage space - if they can actually fly safely for 2yrs or so ...
even as freighters if need be ...

It will take time to ramp up Mc-21 production.
It makes sense to refurbish stored Tu-204/214's, and push government Tu's into service.
Add a limited run of 10-15 Tu-204/214's per year for a couple of years till 2025 or so.
Every single component is there,ready to be produced.
Mc-21 will nor be magically banged out in quantity from the beginning...
Every single additional Tu204/214 could be repurposed into freighters or maritime patrol aircraft or personnel transport once the Mc-21 takes over its market share, and have productive lives thereafter.
This is not rocket science.
In case anyone hasn't noticed, there is a total economic war being waged against Russia.

Sorry if already posted:

Russia decided to consider the feasibility of increasing the production of IL-96 and Tu-214 aircraft

March 16, 2022, 14: 51Text by Dmitry Zubarev

Russia will analyze the need for Il-96 and Tu-214 passenger aircraft, and may use the reserve for their additional production, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said.

"Today they (Il-96 and Tu-214) are produced in a small series for special customers. Together with our colleagues from the transport sector, we are completing an analysis of the need and priority measures. Based on the picture that we will get, we may also use the reserve for additional production of these aircraft, "Borisov said, RIA Novosti reports.

He added that Russia, against the background of sanctions, is speeding up the implementation of domestic flagship projects in the aircraft industry-the MC-21 and SSJ100 aircraft.

"We are accelerating the implementation of our flagship MS-21 and SSJ-100 projects," Borisov said.

Borisov recalled that over the past few years, the Russian aviation industry has launched import substitution programs. "The key task is to move the implementation of these programs to an earlier date," the Deputy Prime Minister added.

"There is no pause in the work of enterprises and will not be. Everyone continues to work, " Borisov said.

He also stressed that one of the key tasks of the aviation industry now is to accelerate import substitution. "The entire cooperation team is actively working on this, including engine specialists, instrument makers, etc.," he added.

Earlier, Rostec reported that the import-substituted version of the Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ-New) aircraft, in addition to installing the Russian-made PD-8 aircraft engine, also provides for the replacement of key foreign systems with domestic ones.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade reported that about 40 Sukhoi Superjet 100 aircraft with a Russian engine are planned to be produced annually in the country in the coming years.

Recall that on Monday, President Vladimir Putin signed the law on measures to support civil aviation, which makes it possible to register the rights to foreign aircraft leased from Russian companies, the document is published on the official portal of legal information.

https://vz.ru/news/2022/3/16/1148861.html

GarryB wrote:

Western airlines wont lose much transporting people to or from Russia but their trips to Asia are really going to suffer...

The SMART thing to do, is not really to ban western aircraft, but charge them 5 or 10x the price of Chinese and Indian, Thai, Malaysian and Indonesian aircraft. This will put the boots to the Western airlines. as no one will take a 2-3 hour longer and more expensive flight vs flying China Eastern over Russia.

ever since the Covid outbreak most countries have realised that globalisation has gone too far
ie trying to get face masks and PPE and vaccines
add to that insane costs of diesel to transport bits around now ...

and look at car factory flowlines stopping and starting everywhere due to component shortages .....
the writing is on the wall for excessively globalised manufacturing

you can see every country will now be trying to become more self sufficient
at the very minimum shorten component supply lines drastically geographically wherever possible
and ramping up 3D printing exponentially

seems to me what Russia is currently doing for its airliners re replacing all dodgy component suppliers
is what the rest of the world will be doing in the future anyway ...

The Russian aviation industry was suppressed like every other domestic industry thanks to Yeltsin's "free trade" monetarist
reforms.

The Il-106 and its new engines were both victims of sabotage from the west and from those wanting the An-70 to have no competition...

By the time Tu-204 production could be ramped up to a large degree the 100% Russified MS-21 will be in production.
I think that ship has sailed. Modernized Il-96 still makes sense.

By the time both are ready for serial production the need is going to be rather greater than it is today and producing both would actually be useful and more efficiently use production potential.

Right now they have production facilities for the Tu-204 and a seperate factory making Tu-214s for the military.... expanding production capacity at both facilities will make sure current needs can be met as much as possible and when MS-21 production gets to fully serial levels one of the factories making Tu-214s or Tu-204SMs can start making Tu-330s which is based on the Tu-204 and can fill the transport gap left by retiring An-12s.

The European and US aircraft manufacturers were on the way out. Just look at the aircraft orders in the Russian aviation industry.
Other than some limited purchases of Western aircraft most orders were for Superjet and MC-21. Not being able to import Western components will delay those programs somewhat but it should not be critical.

That is OK... Tu-204s and Tu-214s and Tu-330s can be made for cargo transport and a range of other roles within the civilian and military sphere... a decent new replacement is needed for An-12s (Tu-330s) and also Il-38s (Tu-214), and all their early Il-20/22 elint aircraft.

Having a bit of choice is a good thing and it expands demand for avionics and engines and other systems to keep all the companies working... what would these Tupolev factories be making otherwise?

The SMART thing to do, is not really to ban western aircraft, but charge them 5 or 10x the price of Chinese and Indian, Thai, Malaysian and Indonesian aircraft. This will put the boots to the Western airlines. as no one will take a 2-3 hour longer and more expensive flight vs flying China Eastern over Russia.

Are you trying to get western airlines to go back on their principles for money... the very thought. But costing them more money to fly around Russia makes sense because the extra time will cost them routes... passengers will simply fly Asian airlines because they will be cheaper.

More importantly in the past the Russians generally only allowed one airline from each EU member state the right to fly over Russian airspace, so lets say that was 30 odd airlines... that traffic will be taken up by another airline from a country not trying to screw Russia who will be paying what an enemy state would be paying so Russia wont lose anything at all... and enemy states airlines will have to stop operating certain routes that are no longer competitive.

seems to me what Russia is currently doing for its airliners re replacing all dodgy component suppliers
is what the rest of the world will be doing in the future anyway ...

Probably true but with Russia being the source of many necessary raw materials, food and energy it has plenty of advantages that make it too big to isolate with sanctions... in fact in a sense the west is isolating itself from a large portion of the worlds energy and raw material resources... the ego on those bastards in the Whitehouse.

The big problem is market size, 72 planes a year vs 72 planes a month for A320. Can Russia not incorporate Turkey, Iran and some others into their program?

mnztr wrote:The big problem is market size, 72 planes a year vs 72 planes a month for A320. Can Russia not incorporate Turkey, Iran and some others into their program?

Turkey? I highly doubt it unless they can start getting some production going in Turkey (which is a huge opportunity and something they should actually seek out).  Add in Iran and yeah, big chance in Iran but also based upon incentives like "We can open up warehouses and production for certain parts of the jets in your country".  This can be also done in various African states.

While the Russian jets aren't as competitive due to still lack of the PD-35 to make the Il-96 a dual engine rather than quad engine plane, they can supplement it by opening up production of some sort for spare parts, maintenance shops and supply warehouses in these third countries that would greatly entice the countries.

And then there are bribes.  Bribes is what got Airbus and Boeing where they are now.

So the big prospect to get other countries enticed into these projects is to entice them with production of parts and or localizing parts that can be used in the overall program. Kazakhstan is a good option. Maybe Armenia too. It would create lots of work for those countries and then entice them to buy the jets as it would also be supporting local industries.

The production volume is irrelevant when there is a blatant attempt to strangle you.
Production should be geared towards Russian needs, and accomodating ANYBODY who wants to buy.
There are enough nations under schizophrenic Western sanctions, and plenty who are watching the West wage economic warfare on anybody who doesn't toe their line.
I would be courting Iran, North Korea, Africa, Asia, South America...whoever shows an interest.
The West and the UN can take a jump.
It's worthwhile noting it's really only the EU,cUS, and assorted lackeys like Canada and Australia etc who are sanctioning Russia.
The majority of countries on planet Earth are not.

so yes .... break-even is good enough
finally the idiots are throwing away the price of kero stupidity .... they have endless supplies of it

its obvious what the west was going to do
as soon as Russia achieved a "level" .... they would move it up again .... to match their own engines

so ... do the reverse ..... subsidise your kero to "made for Russian conditions" jets ..... too easy

how's this for another idea

"Severstal will stop buying spare parts from abroad and will independently produce them on a 3D printer"

After the restriction of supplies from abroad, many enterprises discovered promising areas of import substitution of parts. Thus, the Cherepovets Metallurgical Plant announced that it was ready to produce the necessary spare parts on its own. Nozzles, plungers, nozzles and other elements for its own complex are now produced by Severstal on a 3D printer."

start 3D printing Airbus and Boeing components and once you have enough for yourself
spread them all over the world on the grey market ..... waves and waves of them
most manufacturers make more money from spares and service than selling the car or plane ....

who needs to sell planes ? .... parts are far more profitable

https://zen.yandex.ru/media/sferalive/severstal-perestanet-zakupat-zapchasti-izza-rubeja-i-budet-samostoiatelno-proizvodit-ih-na-3dprintere-624b6b9ededa287d21e1df23?&

wouldn't that bore it up them ....

The big problem is market size, 72 planes a year vs 72 planes a month for A320. Can Russia not incorporate Turkey, Iran and some others into their program?

They don't have to match Airbus.... they are not making planes for the entire world just yet... just replacing western aircraft for Russian based airlines and likely a few foreign customers like Cuba or whoever wants to buy them.

Production of the new types can then take over and older planes recently made can be converted to cargo roles, or military use... all the more reason to set up production of the Tu-204 based Tu-330 transport... a 35 ton payload jet transport would be useful as it would be rather longer ranged than An-12/C-130 types... and faster.

It should be added that the Russian military has a lot of elint and EW and other aircraft types like Il-38 MPAs that all need updating with modern airliner airframes.

The new and even the older planes they are returning to service would be useful in the Russian military as well so the market for Russian planes is actually quite good at the moment.

I would even argue that the market for Il-276 and Il-476 and Il-106 and Tu-330 aircraft world wide would actually be rather huge because they will be affordable and really don't have any strong competition in the world market at the moment.

I've been through this stuff myself many times over 20+ years in manufacturing
you need to simplify everything .... throw out anything about models that don't even exist

normally/ideally you have a "red" and a "blue" team
they follow programs through from design to closedown
essentially they continuously overlap ... they know their projects inside out
overlap by say 3 yrs or so ....

so you would have your Il-76-MD90A team in a mature project phase
in the back office you would have your Il-276 team working on the next project in design phase

but when times are tough you shut down your "next gen" red team
and throw them into the current issue ... because you don't have endless knowledge and experience ... and people
its all hands on deck ....

I can't see Il-276s etc being built for a very long time ..... or any other currently not made models ....

I think probably the best strategy for Russian exports is 2nd hand / reconditioned
as you build new Il-76s ..... sell your older ones

there are lots of countries looking for affordable hardware in the developing world
and you can probably flog a reconditioned Il-76 for the same price as a new Il-276 .....
no-brainer for me .... give me the reconditioned big one ......

meanwhile you prove new designs in Russia
and by the time you sell them as reconditioned models they are bulletproof

that's what I would be doing .... reconditioned sales of proven bulletproof designs
military or civil