Russia is preparing to fly only on domestic aircraft, by Olga Samofalova for VZGLYAD, 07.04.2022.
Russia has named the planes on which the Russians will fly after the resource of foreign Boeings and Airbuses is exhausted. In addition to the Sukhoi Superjet-100, these will be long-haul Tu-214 and Il-96. Why were these particular aircraft chosen, will Russia be able to produce them, and why have they been of no interest to Russian airlines so far?
The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) will produce 20 Tu-214 passenger aircraft and will increase the pace of production of long-haul Il-96 and military transport Il-76. This was told by the head of the KLA Yuri Slyusar.
Interest in the urgent resumption of mass production of passenger Tu-214 and Il-96 appeared due to Western sanctions. The EU banned the leasing and supply of aircraft and engines to Russia and demanded the return of even those aircraft that are now operated by Russian airlines and pay lease payments. The owners of such machines are foreign lessors. The EU has also banned insurance for Russian aircraft. Boeing and Airbus stopped servicing aircraft of Russian airlines and banned the supply of spare parts to them.
According to the Ministry of Transport, foreign lessors demanded that Russian companies return 500 aircraft with a residual value of $20 billion. Russia did not begin to return foreign cars, especially since this is technically impossible to do because of the mutual closure of the sky between the EU and Russia. However, Russian airlines have faced arrests of foreign aircraft at foreign airports at the request of European lessors. According to the Ministry of Transport, Russia "lost" 78 aircraft in this way.
Moscow is gradually solving the problems that have arisen. Firstly, foreign cars began to be re-registered in the Russian register. Secondly, the government allowed airlines to pay lessors in rubles, because without flights abroad and the absence of foreign exchange earnings, it is difficult to make payments in another currency.
Foreign planes now fly mainly on domestic routes. 148 domestic Sukhoi Superjet-100s plus another 45 foreign aircraft, which are the property of Russian airlines and are registered with Rosreestr, were “thrown” on international flights. In total, a fleet of 193 aircraft was formed for flights abroad. From April 9, Russia will resume flights with 52 friendly countries. In particular, restrictions on charter flights introduced earlier due to the spread of coronavirus to Venezuela, Hong Kong, Kenya, Ethiopia and a number of other states will be lifted.
How long Russia can use the rest of the foreign aircraft on lease, even on domestic flights, is not entirely clear. It depends on whether the airlines find all the necessary spare parts for aircraft repairs.
In any case, Russia is clearly preparing for the fact that soon Russian airlines will need a fleet consisting not of Boeings and Airbuses, but of domestically produced aircraft.
If we have a regional machine - SSJ-100 - we have not yet managed to launch a domestic replacement for long-haul Boeings and Airbuses - the MS-21 aircraft. This aircraft promises to outperform foreign competitors in terms of performance and comfort. But it can only be put into production in 2024, according to official statements. And this is provided that the manufacturer manages to import all that is necessary. Although the MS-21 was originally created with a minimum share of imports, unlike, for example, the SSJ-100.
Under such conditions, Russia has no other choice but to turn its attention to technically obsolete domestic liners with the PS-90A engine - the long-haul narrow-body Tu-214 and the wide-body Il-96, designed back in the 1980s.
It is curious that in 2014 the Il-96 was finally withdrawn from the Aeroflot fleet, but in 2022-2023, most likely, it will become desirable for many Russian carriers.
Why did Russia abandon domestic liners in favor of foreign cars? It's all about economic feasibility.
“Earlier, our aircraft competed with foreign cars that had slightly better flight performance and a more attractive price, as they came to us from the secondary market. However, now the situation is radically different. Aircraft of domestic origin have no alternative if we are talking about flights not “today”, but “tomorrow”. Therefore, any shortcomings that affect the economy, but do not affect flight safety, can be forgiven for them," says the head of "Airport" Oleg Panteleev.
The expert compares Tu-214 and MS-21. “The Tu-214 is 30 tons heavier, has worse aerodynamics, a cabin with three rather than two crew members, and a lower degree of automation of routine crew procedures. It is less comfortable for passengers and has a higher cost per flight hour and is generally more expensive to operate than the MS-21. But the main advantage of the Tu-214 today is that the first aircraft may appear with the airlines earlier than the fully imported MS-21, and it can fly from Moscow to Khabarovsk,” says Panteleev.
The Russian aircraft industry cannot boast of producing 300-600 aircraft per year, like Boeing or Airbus. The number of aircraft produced in Russia against this background is simply lost. In 2019, Russian factories produced six aircraft, in 2020 - 12, and in 2021 (for nine months) - 14 SSJ-100 aircraft.
“However, in previous years, the production of Tu-214 and Il-96 was limited to a greater extent by demand than by production capabilities along the entire chain from component manufacturers to final assembly and testing,” says the aviation expert. Airlines were not interested in these aircraft, which were losing economic competition with foreign cars.
Although there is a precedent when the Ilyushin Finance leasing company ordered the production of the Tu-204 in the interests of the Red Wings airline. In 2007-2008, we managed to reach the production of one aircraft per month, or 10-12 aircraft per year.
“This, of course, is also not too much against the background of the capabilities of our foreign competitors, but it speaks of the possibility of reaching the same production rates as the Tu-214 in Kazan. The components of the Tu-204 and Tu-214 are overwhelmingly identical. Cooperation should allow reaching the required production volumes. Although we cannot now assess the state of all suppliers of components along the entire chain. We hope that they have not lost their competence, but only increased it,” says Oleg Panteleev.
As for the Il-96, the state took over it long before February 2022 - even after the first Western sanctions in 2014-2015.
Back in 2017, the Cabinet of Ministers allocated more than 53 billion rubles for the construction of one prototype vehicle in an updated form with modern on-board and navigation equipment. The customers included the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. The issue is handled by the Voronezh Joint-Stock Aircraft Building Company (VASO). Apparently, the IL-96 was a safety option in case the West refused to supply us with its equipment, and now Russia intends to use it. In July 2021, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said that the production of the new Il-96 was completed, and three more machines were in production in Voronezh. According to him, VASO is provided with orders for 10 years in advance in the interests of the special flight squad "Russia".
“VASO's capabilities are enough to make more than two aircraft a year. There are no critical bottlenecks in the IL-96 program. I think that within two or three years it will be possible to increase the production of liners up to four per year. It will be necessary to hire an additional number of production workers,” Panteleev said.
He points out that in order to build a large number of aircraft, it is necessary to conclude contracts for metal, engines, airborne equipment, the production cycle of which also takes time. In the past, the aircraft production cycle from ordering materials to handing over to customers required 12-14 months, perhaps the process can be accelerated. But the planes that were put into production this year are likely to enter service no earlier than 2023. It is possible that three Il-96s, which were already being produced at VASO in July 2021, will be ready for operation in the sky earlier.
Both Tu-214 and Il-96 can be used by Russian airlines both on domestic and international routes.
“So far we have enough foreign aircraft to fly domestically. But if the resources of foreign cars are exhausted to serve domestic routes, then most likely the main purpose of the Tu-214 and Il-96 will be to replace foreign cars on domestic lines and to ensure the connectivity of Russian regions, ” says Panteleev.
As for the Il-76, it is a heavy military transport aircraft, which is produced in Ulyanovsk at Aviastar. A special production line was created for its serial production, which speeds up the assembly of aircraft. The first aircraft on this line has already been assembled. Its capacity is designed to produce up to 18 aircraft per year. Last year, the task was to bring the collection to 10 aircraft per year.
“The main investments in the expansion of production were made earlier. Nothing prevents Aviastar from producing more aircraft in terms of the plant’s capabilities,” the source concludes.
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