Russian Civil Aviation: News #4

The Russian market could probably use any Russian aircraft they can manage to get into production, they certainly need to massively expand the Il-476 production capacity because they also need Il-276s as well to start replacing their AN-12s which will need replacing very soon.

With Tu-214 and Tu-204s going back into production I would say looking into making Tu-330s would also be worth while... a 35 ton payload transport based on the Tu-204 would make good sense and the extra payload capacity could be used for extra fuel to allow it to carry 20 ton payloads a lot further, or 35 ton payloads the same distance as the An-12 could.

Being a jet it would also be faster... and be able to fly over the weather instead of through it.

Large long range aircraft would be useful to Russia because Russia is a big country and to reach markets like Africa and Asia an central and south America then big planes are a real advantage.

I would think Russia would be better off focussing on getting Il-476s into full production and also Il-106 aircraft or an equivalent into production should be their highest priority. Extra production capacity for the Il-476 could also be used to make Il-276s when the extra Il-476s are not so urgent, but they need production capacity for 20 ton and 60 ton and 80-100 ton capacity weight classes which could be Il-276, Il-476, and Il-106 respectively.

The An-22 was heavily used and popular and the Il-106 fits into that niche role and would take pressure off the An-124s which can do the same thing but at greater costs.

Getting PD24 or 26 engines for An-124s would improve reliability and performance but longer term it is just a place filler with the Il-106 and Slon being the future of Russian heavy transport planes... the latter could include a version with an H tail for external loads carried piggy back.

With the Tu-204/214 going back into production then I would say the Tu-330 should also be looked at again as a 35 ton capacity aircraft would be useful as well and could be produced at the Tu-204 factory when enough of those have been built to meet short term needs... then the Tu-204s that had been produced could be converted to cargo planes for the civil roles and the factory making Tu-214s can make other variants for the military and civilian use while the factory making Tu-204s could shift to Tu-330s for military and civilian transport needs of a roll on roll off nature.

Il-276 could be made in excess Il-476 production factories when production increases to the point where needs are met for domestic and export use.

The reduced size Il-276 would compliment the Il-476 with commonality and operating together and would likely be a good export earner too.

Here in New Zealand we have C-130s which are relatively slow and relatively short ranged... and flys through weather that jets could fly over making them more comfortable too.

Flights to the islands normally involve island hopping because range limitations of the C-130 which is not something we should have.

We should have a C-141 or Il-476 at the very least and possibly a C-17/Il-106 type that could fly to places in one hop and deliver products and extra fuel for the locals instead of using up their supplies.

Obviously Russian aircraft are not options for us politically but they would be the sensible choices.

Il-106 produced in factories currently set for making An-124 would make sense as that Soviet design is essentially over.

I have been talking about production engineering ... not product engineering

Yeah, fair enough, but you produce what you need and not what you can...

They have production capacity for An-140s and An-124s but there is no need for more of either of those and more An-124s makes little sense without more engines too.

Edit: production for the An-124s should be allocated for production of Il-106s and production for An-140s should be allocated for the Let-610 model variants they are apparently making...

More production for Il-476 makes sense because it is needed and useful and also Il-276s can be produced in such factories too and the need for 20 ton payload transports to replace the aging An-12s is becoming urgent because the Il-276s has not flown yet... despite years of screwing around with India and the MTA programme.

They have Tu-204 and Tu-214 production capacity... the Tu-330 is based on those aircraft airframes with over 70% commonality according to sources I have read from a few years back... ideally they want the Superjet and MS-21s in production because they are the newest and bestest but are not totally Russian yet so while they are becoming import substituted producing Tu-204s and Tu-214s makes sense because factories to make each already exist and pushing some money to boost production gets decent Russian aircraft available sooner.

The bonus is that the Tu-214 was being built for the military to replace a few obsolete types and could also be used as a lighter inflight refuelling aircraft for tactical aircraft or drones and could also be built in configurations for Elint and other jobs including a replacement for the Il-38 May.

When they have the superjet and MS-21 in full production the civilian airliners of the Tupolev type that were made could be converted to cargo roles, and production of the Tu-204 could shift to the Tu-330 transport type in the 35 ton payload category that would further help deal with the retirement of a lot of An-12s over the next decade or so.

The Il-106 is a very good aircraft and also makes sense to put into production... it fits a niche between the 62 tons the Il-476s can carry and the 120-150 tons the An-124s can carry. Being smaller and lighter than the An-124s they will be cheaper to operate for all jobs except those near the capacity of the An-124 where the An-124 would be the preferred choice.

That just leaves the Slon, which is waiting for PD-35 engines and would be in the 180 ton payload class with possible versions using an H tail for external payloads on its back for the space industry.

The Slon could simply be a scaled up Il-106 with PD-35 engines eventually where the Il-106 has two and the Slon has four... to start with the Il-106 could have 4 x PS-90 engines in the 18 ton thrust class with a payload of perhaps 80 tons, but later with two 35 ton PD-35 engines perhaps payload capacity could be expanded to 100-110 tons.

I am yet to be convinced they will scale it up so well .... time will tell
I hope I am wrong ....

If it is a better way to make planes or to serially produce planes then it should be applied whereever possible.

that leaves Tupolev
those Tu-214s will be built the old way ....
the MC-21 will eventually crush it

It makes no sense for Tupolev to not use the latest production techniques, there is plenty of scope for new aircraft in both civilian and military Russia... I am not sure an MS-21 would be ideal for the Russian military... they already have versions of the Tu-204 in service in various roles and that includes a replacement for the Tu-134 Crusty modified to carry the radar of the Blackjack for bomber training... they have production facilities, it just makes sense to use them to make planes... not in enormous volumes but the Russian military don't need them in enormous numbers.

an entire review of Tupolev's activities in civil and transport aircraft needs to happen
probably is .... as in massive .... a product review before any production line stuff happens

They seem to have production capacity right now of Tu-204 and Tu-214 in two separate factories... it makes sense to use them to produce aircraft now... a brand new set of engines would make them competitive with any western equivalent today.

Will Tupolev revert back to the long-range aviation hub of Russia's attack force ?
and convert Tu-214s into P-8 clones ?
I'm sure there are big discussions going on

I think the Tu-214 would be a good replacement for the Il-38 which is getting a bit long in the tooth.... there are versions with ranges of 10,000km plus which would be ideal.

Il-106
sure every kid wants every lolly in the lolly shop .....
in the here and now .... the best way to support your An-124s

I disagree, it is a dead end product of another country that has no future. Don't throw them away, but don't keep them forever either.

Smaller lighter cheaper planes to replace the An-124 (Il-106) makes sense rather than continuing to use something that needs to go.

It all hinges on the engines.

and they would be saying ..... Il-106 ..... is a distant goal
and that to support your An-124s with what you have in production ?

An-124s are a dead end... don't invest too much money into something that wont be in the inventory in the 2030s.

Il-106 was ready to go but was killed because it was an enormous threat to the C-17 and still is because it will likely be affordable and much more capable.

With newer engines it should be even better.

they would say the Il-96-500T .... as there is no other current production alternative

It was killed because it was Russian and for no other reason. Russian airlines bought slightly cheaper western aircraft instead of investing in their own aircraft makers and now they are in the shit because the west has totally betrayed them and are doing everything they can to hurt and damage them even now.

and it gives you new options being low-wing .... can be very handy to transport fuselages and spacecraft
and other bulky cargoes .... rather than heavy cargoes
I would sign-off on it for sure

Not sure what you mean.... the An-225 which was designed specifically from the outset to carry bulky large external loads on its back has a high wing and an H tail.

(I am a big fan of that Il-276 too btw
here in Oz
we are thrashing the life out of our C-17s and the Hercules are sitting around as accommodation for mice
as for such a big country Hercules are way too slow
our dopey military should have bought that Brazilian C-390 jet ... )

It is frustrating.... the Hercs were fantastic planes but they are not designed for the arse end of the world where you have to fly thousands of kms to reach the next bit of land. When we fly to the pacific we have to island hop which means going to remote islands and using up their fuel supplies to get to where we are going... it would be much better if we had a bigger longer ranged aircraft like an Il-476 that could fly where we want to go in one hop and deliver extra fuel for the locals to use.

It would also be a more comfortable ride being able to fly over the weather rather than through it...

We could probably get three LAVs into an Il-476 instead of a stripped down one in a Herc.

With an Il-106 that wont cost half a billion each to buy, we could probably carry four with ammo and crew and equipment...

But then I remember in the 1990s when Sukhoi offered to Australia a joint development to design and build an Su-35 and also an Su-34 that Australia could make locally to replace their Hornets and F-111s, and also cooperation in a long range air to air missile... later identified as the KS-172 400km range two stage missile that does not seem to have gotten anywhere... it was the competition with the R-37M it seems.

Never going to happen politically despite it being a good solution militarily.

With an XLR version Russia can easily offer flights to every point on the planet with 1 stop from any point in Russia.

Longer ranged models would make a lot of sense simply because of the distances in Russia and to other countries including China etc etc.