Russian Civil Aviation: News #4

It creates real independence making everything you need for yourself, but the problem there is that what can you trade in such a situation... the rest of the world trade partners have to have something they sell to you in return otherwise the trade inbalance will keep them poor and backward.

Building an aircraft factory in a former Soviet State can make sense if you keep ownership and control of it, but if there are lots of aircraft building capacity in Russia not being used then of course fill those orderbooks first and upgrade that tooling and train that staff first.

You are going to want support and service station capacity around the world so building factories does make sense but it makes sense to have it near your customer base so say Mexico doesn't have to send aircraft all the way back to Russia for an overhaul and full service... and of course in that situation having a service centre in Mexico or other nearby friendly country makes more sense than a former soviet republic that is potentially further away than a Russian factory might be.

They really need to pull out the stops on planes that are not flying yet... Il-276 is fairly urgent and now that they have decided to produce Tu-204/214s in larger numbers consideration should also be given to Tu-330 as a potential new project too as it shares 70% of the design and is about 50% higher payload than the Il-276 which in roles like Jammer platform or inflight refuelling tanker or other jobs like transporting armoured vehicles makes it rather more interesting.

The difference could be between carrying one BTR-82A and not much else or a Boomerang and its ammo and crew and supplies, where the Il-276 will carry about 20 tons and the Tu-330 was going to carry 35 tons.

Smaller aircraft in that weight range are cheaper and easier to operate in a range of airfields and would be needed and used in larger numbers... especially now that road and rail links to the far north and far east have been expanded and lots of new paved runways are appearing too.

Such transport aircraft are vastly cheaper than helicopters like Mi-26 in terms of speed and range...

I fully agree that the Soviet Union was more of a burden to Russia than an advantage and if they want good relations and trade they need to pull their weight too and not just expect handouts and freebies from Moscow.

best way to keep the Stans "loyal" is to keep the Ruble strong so they send lots of "guest workers" to Russia to work in construction and factories there.

The best way to keep the Stans loyal is to treat them with respect and don't screw them over... no handouts but no sanctions or pressure to do things they don't want to do either.

Just normal free and open trade where both sides profit and develop and grow.

Transport aviation is a mess because its previous centre of excellence during Soviet times was Ukraine
if you look at all the aviation areas it is the problem

Transport and civil aviation are a mess because of a lack of Russian engines.

the other one you can see is small helicopter and aircraft and their engines
ditto light aviation it was centred in Czech/Poland .... and Ukraine did their engines too

Which is all in the process of being remedied... engines are not quick and easy otherwise everyone would be making their own.

turboprops in general are not a great strength of Russia
and big high bypass engines ...

Not a huge problem really... they have the worlds fastest propeller driven aircraft and the Il-112 and Il-114 seem to be coming along... and the LMS-901 and their version of the Let 610 too.

Apart from those and the Let 410 what other turboprops do they even need?

and drop any plans to do a modernised Tu-214 as it too similar to the MC-21

They have a factory specifically making Tu-214s for the military so it makes sense to keep making them... with new suitable engines the difference in performance with them and the newer aircraft wont be enough to matter and it means all the military aircraft are the same base aircraft... and related to any Tu-330s they make, which versions of the MS-21 wont, and wont be available for a while now because all their planes they make will go to Russian airlines as a priority.

In the mean time the Tu-204s and Tu-214s can also go to the airlines while they are replacing foreign types and when the foreign types are replaced the Tupolevs can be relegated to cargo roles while the MS-21s carry people... the Factories making Tu-204s and Tu-214s can then make planes for the military again... replacements for older types like the Il-20 and Il-22s etc, and also replacements for the An-12 together with the Il-276s.

get some laser-like focus on 1x design

So you completely stop production at the factory making Tu-204s and the factory making Tu-214s and they sit and do nothing while the MS-21 factory has a mental break down trying to be the only factory making planes for all the Russian airlines...

and forget about synergies re Tu-214 and 330 ..... just get synergies via 1x body for both .... Tu-330 in 2x versions

Forget about commonality?

For what reason?

( that is what should have happened with the Il-114 and Il-112
just 1x high wing design ... as a airliner and a transport plane )

Don't you think the fact that they went forward with both types suggests your idea of focussing on one platform/one design is wrong?

The Mi-28 would not exist yet it seems to be doing a good job along with the Ka-52... sometimes competing designs are different enough to both be useful.

btw
how does a Tu-330 with 2x PS-90s lift so much more than an Il-276 with 2x PS-90s ?
it doesn't make sense to me ?

Different versions of the PS-90 have different thrust ratings... the one for the Il-276 is about a 14-15 ton thrust engine, while the proposed models for the Tu-330 are over 18 tons thrust each with a MTOW of about 30 tons heavier.

I would have expected something around 25 or 30 tons from the il 276, and not just 20, unless the design is completely unoptimised.

The Il-276 was to replace the An-12 so the requirements are similar... 20 ton payload to 2,000km.... but then the fact that the models all have inflight refuelling probes there is a lot of flexibility in the flight performance potential.

It is time for Russia to start thinking about Russia first

Look at the US to see how that turns out...

P.S. I am not even sure, if they are capable of finding enough workers for plane production, since many engineers and designers during SU times had to be brought from other republics.

They could just start out with assembly... and work their way up.

you don't have to be Einstein to see that Kazakhstan is the next Ukraine

You don't have to think too long and hard to realise the CIA and west want every country to become the next Ukraine, but which countries are going to volunteer for that seeing what they are currently seeing.

Belarus was supposed to be the next Ukraine and they screwed it up.

Their tactics and methods are known and understood... it is unlikely they will be able to rinse and repeat too often without consequences...

Honestly I am not Russian and not related to Russia at all and all this talk about Ukraine being critical to Russias future seems to just be bullshit... if anything they held them back and were a burden.

Call it a gateway to europe all you like that just makes it the highway to hell as far as I am concerned because the west doesn't want a successful safe and prosperous Russia, they want its stuff and they want Russias out of the way so they can get their stuff...

Russia losing western and northern Ukraine is fine in my book, it is the south and east that seem to be worth saving as independent regions trading and friendly with Russia... screw the rest... and the west... both have shown their true colours and this should not be forgotten nor forgiven.

Cutting ties with Russia is helping Russia see its future is with the rest of the world... and when they realise what is happening the rest of the world will be grateful to have a serious alternative to the west moving forward because with the west most were just treading water while being fleeced by the west.

It would be nice to see some sort of reference for the composite production limitations. I have not seen any information
that import substitution is not at 100%. The MS-21 wings using Russian composites have been tested and certified. If
there was a supply bottleneck I would have seen at least one article on it.

A lot of the Russian media information space is polluted with throwaway comments by "experts" and officials. They have no
sense of balance and engage in polemics to push some agenda or other. The sky is always falling in Russia.

you are a piece of work I will give you that ....

I am just posting my opinion.... just like you can do.

If you want to discuss that is OK, if you don't that is fine too.

Last I checked, Kazakhstan doesn't embrace nazi ideology like the Ukraine and doesn't have a problem with its large ethnic Russian minority at all.

The west would love Russia to treat all its former Soviet Neighbours as if they are Ukraine and isolate themselves from the world... we have already beaten you so give up and don't even try.

Problem there is that if Russia gives up on the west it has to engage the rest of the world which includes its non HATO neighbours for some level of trade.

Countries that outright reject them of course they can ignore, but that is no reason to add countries to the ignore list without trying.

Relations with Turkey are not that bad and in fact are better than with any EU country because EU policy is Americas policy, while Turkey can follow its own interests... some of which are compatible with Russias interests so there is scope to work together for mutual benefit.

The biggest challenge they'll face in the coming decades will be in the form of Western sponsored color revolutions and Western sponsored ISIS/terror cells infiltrating the country, good thing they have their big brother to turn to

Lots of countries around the world will want help in that regard... Americas tentacles reach everywhere...

He will just try to give an answer to everything, regardless of actual situation on the ground.

I am giving my opinion... if you have a factory making Tu-204s and another factory making Tu-214 which are both operational and making planes already and you have a sudden shortage of airliners for your civilian airlines then it would be stupid not to engage all your aircraft making factories of different aircraft types to start making planes... the fact that they are different is good because if tey were all the same they would struggle to make enough engines for them.

In this case different planes and different engines so boosting production of all types would be a good short term solution.

Looking to the future however going for a mix of Super jets and MS-21s as being the brand new planes with the best economic performance figures then once the emergency has passed and enough aircraft are in service the factories making these two can continue and gradually replace other types pressed into use for transporting people which can be repurposed to cargo roles.

The Tu-214 is being used in various roles within the Russian military which would be something it could also return to, while the Tu-204 factory could be modified to make Tu-330 transports which would also be very useful, so you have Tu-214s replacing older airliner types in the Russian military... various Elint and other types, as well as MPAs like the Il-38 need replacing soon.

The Tu-330s would be a good plane to fit between the Il-276 and the Il-476s while not being a totally unique design as Tu-214s and Tu-204s will be also used in service with the Russian military... with new engines their efficiency should be rather good.

Once the Superjet and MS-21 have replaced all the western aircraft  in Russian airlines they can start to offer them to airlines around the world too including building support centres.

Turkey has played a significant part in "nation building", and Kaz is one of the founding members of Organization of Turkic states. I believe that it will be a battleground in coming years, as it has too much natural resources to be left as is.

And so you think Russia refusing to build anything there will help turn them around and make them friendly to Russia, or have you already written them off... US bio weapons labs and nazis and nukes for them...

The main idea of SibNIA was the remotorization of the old Yak-40 in conservation, of which about 400 units are in a condition acceptable for modernization. But as far as I know, so far there have been no clients willing to purchase and operate such aircraft.

Maybe they should just dial back their ambition and just reengine them and upgrade the avionics with Russian components and materials and leave the composite wing to a later upgrade.

If anything lack of aircraft assembly facilities does not seem to be the main issue to me.

Good, they should get them all producing even if some only make parts for others to complete their planes on time.

The MS-21 wings using Russian composites have been tested and certified. If
there was a supply bottleneck I would have seen at least one article on it.

Wasn't there an article in the new technology section that mentioned composite production in Russia is taking off and is becoming massive?

If you want to bring ANOTHER composite aircraft to the market, you need to build a separate enterprise that will specialize in creating composite structures for this aircraft.

These current sanctions will boost demand for aircraft and the amount and quantity of composite material demand is only going to increase over time anyway... whether it is for aircraft or ships or drones... or electric vehicles.

This is very good for Russian aircraft production, but they need to make sure they don't get their plans wrong with serious shortages of factories or too many factories with nothing to do.

There were investments in Kazakhstan made by Russian SOE and private companies, but, for example, they never allowed Rosatom to purchase a part of Kazakatomprom.

After seeing what the US did to Russia in the 1990s with "investment" better known as money laundering and asset stripping, I could understand why they would not want any foreign country owning significant bits of their golden goose.

Russia is essentially cutting itself off from the west, they can't afford to do the same with every country... this is not about converting every country into Russias slave like the US tries to do... most countries in the rest of the world will see that coming and resist... their rich will fold of course for the promise of a little more money but the rest of the population will generally realise they are getting screwed... of course whether they can do anything about it or not is another matter.

Russia needs to treat every trade partner that is open to free and fair trade as an equal partner and make sure that the people at both ends of the deal make good profits and are able to invest that money to develop and grow and do better.

Ethical coffee in the west is where the farmers who grow the beans get a fairer percentage of the profits for their input into the product than they were getting before.

Instead of a few cents they are getting rather more money... of course whether that goes to the natives on the farms doing all the manual work, or the rich usually white ex colonial land owner they work for is another matter entirely.

The claim in the west is that there is trickle down where rich people have to spend money and so it helps the local economy so everyone benefits... which is of course bullshit because rich people are tighter than your average person and like to spend thousands of dollars on themselves but wont spare a dollar to help someone in need. (obviously not all are but you don't get to be a billionaire by giving away all your money).

Russia needs to avoid the western culture of money is the goal of business... providing good products to customers or services to customers should be the goal of the company and looking after your employees should be a priority because they are the interface between your customers and your services and products... yet super rich people like Beezos will pay his workers minimum wage while making record profits...

This is off topic... but for a healthy future Russia needs to build service centres around the world to support their aircraft, they can do it so it provides jobs and training for locals, but the core work and secrets are kept by the Russian companies that own the service centres if there are political problems.

Russia had its eyes open when the US did what it did in the Ukraine and they will now be aware of the tactics and the signs and can react better in other countries.

The alternative is self isolation which is exactly the goal the US is trying to achieve.

You're missing the point. This is not about economy. If anything, Russian companies had found a lot of red tape for investing in the country during Nazarbayevs reign. We will see if anything will change with Tokayev. It should, as Russians, basically, saved his bacon.

This thread is in the section of Russia and is about the civil aviation sector in Russia... in that context Russia has found itself with a massively under funded civilian aviation sector which extends into the military transport and and airliner based aircraft like Elint and jammer etc etc types.

Being cut off from western types the Russian airlines need to get rid of the leased western types they operate and use the Russian types they were using and buy as many new Russian types that can be made available.

The fact that the Tu-204 and Tu-214 are not super competitive with western types because EU airspace is closed to Russian airlines and Russian airspace is closed to EU airlines presumably too.

Having not so efficient planes is not important for now.

Over time the super jet and MS-21 production will catch up with demand so the less efficient types rushed into airline service can be relegated to cargo and other duties where they are better suited as more new planes are built to replace them.

The performance of the Tupolevs could be enhanced with new engines too eventually to make them more profitable too... but the Russian military needs new aircraft too, and in quite a few areas, for which Tu-204s would be just fine, and some Tu-330 transports would be very very useful too.

Scorpious seems to think there is plenty of unused production capacity in Russia and I fully agree they should attempt to get that working at capacity first before building any new factories anywhere.

I would say the AN-124 factory should be converted to start making Il-106 prototypes ready for production when the engines can be delivered.

I would say the factory that was making the AN-140s that they are not making any more could make those Let-610 modifications instead.

And I think the Il-476 should be a popular aircraft world wide as a 60 ton payload aircraft it should be bought world wide in large numbers and if they eventually do make the Il-276 based on the same design but shorter and smaller wings and two of the same engines then the world potential market will be rather big too to replace the An-12s of the world.

Production capacity for either of these two means you can vary production rates depending on need, but for a start I would think the An-12s really need to start to be retired so Il-276s should be a priority too and the Russian version of the Let-610 replacing old Antonovs would also be a priority too.

Two biggest oil fields, Tengiz and Kashagan, were developed by western companies. Russians never got a chance to work there. You can check that easily.
Nazarbayev, during his reign, tried to wean the country as far as possible from Russia, because country had very big Russian diaspora. He moved capital from Alma Ata (now Almaty) to newly built Astana in order to change demographics of the north Kazakhstan, which was heavily Russian. While doing that, he was heavily promoting Turkic identity with the help of Turkey, of course.
Growing nationalism in Kazakhstan is a problem, and countries even had a period of pretty cold relationship in 2013. Russian minority is being marginalized since independence.

Well with all that being the case then Russia needs to work with the new leader to make sure this BS is reversed... perhaps move the capital city back, or give in to the inevidable and split the country along ethnic lines via referendum....

If the Russian minority was important in certain sectors of their society perhaps take measures to attract them back to Russia... maybe build a city inside Russia with all new housing and infrastructure and a few large companies/industries that generate lots of jobs for skilled labour and offer them a free house and good job and Russian citizenship to attract them back to Russia.

Either way Kazakhstan is not going anywhere and building good trade relations with them makes sense for Russia.

If they stepped in to help the current leader it suggests they are interested in keeping the place friendly, and saving a government from being overthrown is always a good thing for good will moving forward.

I have no preconceived idea what is "best" ....
in this case this looks like a pragmatic solution that makes best use of the resources available at the time
from the evidence I have seen - it looks the best solution

The source you provide says they will essentially complete the planes they have started but really that says nothing about the future of those factories... a contract to clear the existing airframes is a necessary first step to resuming and increasing production for new contracts with new customers... presumably the Russian airlines or perhaps UAC itself will make the planes and then lease them out to the Russian airlines that want them... it is all unknown.

There has be a shift for the Russian civilian Aviation industry... previously most Russian airlines would only buy token Russian aircraft and a few other airlines internationally with bad relations with the west would buy Russian aircraft.... this lack of production and lack of orders makes their planes more expensive than they might be if they were producing in larger volumes for lots of customers.

The conflict in the Ukraine has changed Russian relations with the west and now the Russian CAI are going to have to increase production volume and quality to meet the very different new needs of the Russian airlines and other international airlines unable to source western aircraft for whatever reason.

At the same time the Russian military are rapidly approaching a phase where they have a large number of aircraft that they really need to replace quite urgently, which include former airliner types.

you display a definite circular logic in most of your comments about other people's posts
you have very strong pre-conceived ideas of what you think is the right answer

I disagree. I am open to what others have to say... several knowledgable members have mentioned Russian civil aviation production capacity that is not being used... I started suggesting aircraft making factories in the stans to help boost production capacity but now I think Russian production capacity should be filled with orders first and factories outside Russia should perhaps focus on servicing and support.

and you go dredging up "evidence" backwards to support your pre-conceived conclusion - no matter how obscure the source or illogical

re Tu-214 etc
my position on all these subjects is always the same

if you are going it alone ... and in effect de-globalise to a large extent ... which is what they are really doing

then you have to concentrate your resources and avoid too many different aircraft and engines ... you need focus
you only have so much capital to invest .... and engineers

Yes, you said that.... and the Germans agreed with you... why make Panzer 4 tanks which were adequate but not amazing when you could make Panthers and Tigers... but the obvious problem is that they stopped making Panzer IVs and focussed on Panzer Vs and the troops in the field got nothing becuase the panzer fours stopped comming and the Panthers still weren't quite right yet.

My point is that if you have different things in production then just keep making them... stopping making Tu-204s and Tu-214s wont make any difference in how fast Super Jets and MS-21s can be made... the difference is that Russian airlines will be getting Super Jets and MS-21s but they wont be getting Tu-204s or Tu-214s which could fill gaps left by Boeings and Airbusses.

They have production facilities for different engines right now... not making some planes that use different engines means the engine makers that make engines for the Tupolevs have no reason to make those engines so you have aircraft and engine making factories sitting idle... they already have those aircraft and those engines in service so stopping their production wont simplify anything they still need to be supported and maintained and spare parts need to be made.

eg your comments about the Il-114 and Il-112 .... and the "proven" need for 2x designs is just nonsense
the most popular turboprops in the world are high wing ATR, Dash-8 .... An-24

Russia has a variety of locations and organisations that need aircraft... right now they need Russian aircraft because aircraft from the west are going to become hard to support and almost impossible to get spare parts for.

The Il-112 and Il-114 are relatively new designs they need to replace a range of different Russian and Soviet and foreign types.

The Il-112 has a high wing. The Il-114 has a low wing.

Sounds like they have both options covered.

The AN-24/5/6 they are replacing are in urgent need of replacing.

it would definitely have been in Russia's best interests to have 1x turboprop platform with a high wing
( if they had more time I am sure they would have gone that way - but they don't)

If that were so they could easily cancel the Il-114, but it seems they haven't.

same re your comments of the Tu-330 vs IL-276 lift capacity differences
you claim the difference between them is that the Tu-330 has more powerful PS-90s than the other ?
that's absurd ..... why not then put the more powerful engine on the Il-276 too ?

You do understand there are several versions of the PS-90 engine?

The Il-276 uses the same engines as the Il-476, which is part of the commonality and it was designed to carry a 20 ton payload... that was the design specs...

Putting rather more powerful engines would change the design... like putting a V8 engine in a Mini... how would making it loud and expensive to run improve the performance of what is supposed to be a shopping trolley?

re Tupolev
I suggested that a better investment case for the Tu-330 could be made around the increasing use of fuel efficient XL diameter turbofan
engines on domestic airliners
and we may well see a switch to high wing airliners to bet fit these new engines

and a good case could be developed for a dual use high wing design - 1x transport 1x airliner
ie why slavishly follow what the "west" is doing ?

What is holding back most new Russian aircraft designs seems to be engines, their new PD series of modular scalable engines seems like a rather brilliant idea but it takes years to develop fundamentally new engine designs... and some of them are almost ready.

But right now Russian airlines have leased western aircraft they can't really use so they need planes fast... stopping production of some aircraft that wont speed up the production of the new aircraft they are making is not helping the problem which is the need for lots of all Russian airliners and cargo planes.

What I have been doing is looking at their current production capacity and also taking into account what their military is going to be needing over the next few years to expand production as much as possible without creating lots of white elephant factories that work for 5 years and then never work again because there are too many factories now.

what do you do ?
.... go on about Tu-214 ELINTS or some other stuff .... that had nothing at all to do with what I said
because what I said was something that you had never considered before ....

You do understand that when I post ideas and suggestions they are not all directed at you personally.

The factors involved in what aircraft they produce is affected by Russias military needs too because traditionally the military sector of a country subsidises their civilian aviation industry through orders for aircraft when airlines are not biting as an extra income for the factories making the planes... the American air forces inflight refuelling fleet is a case in point.

you had already made up your mind what was best
.... circular logic

Not circular at all... if you had said the factory making Tu-204s is being rejiggered to make MS-21s and the factory making Tu-214s was being rejiggered to make Super jets, then it would make no sense to talk about Tu-330s, and the Russian military would have to look to other airliner types to move forward with the various types they have to replace that they still operate.

But instead it sounds like there is an An-140 or An-148 factory doing nothing and an AN-124 factory doing bugger all as well, and Il-476 factories that are not being funded properly or there are other problems slowing down production that need to be sorted because Russia could do with a lot of the Il-476s and also Il-276s which they are going to need urgently too very shortly.