Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #3

Its another round of Germans using gas to 404 the hohols v. 2.0.
Its Pottery.

Why do you consider they are selling for a quarter the price?

Because for Germany the alternative is shipped American gas which is four times more expensive... which is why they only show token interest in it most of the time.

They are selling it at market prices, adjusted by lots of factors, political included.

By putting it onto ships they can expand the countries they can sell it to countries less hostile to Russia that could benefit from cheaper gas sources. They developed a ship that could take on normal gas and liquefy it as it takes it on board so it can carry much larger volumes of gas than if it just compressed it, but it can deliver its gas to ports where they receive normal gas rather than liquified gas so they don't need complex and expensive infrastructure at their ports to accept liquified gas like Germany is having to do to please the US.

Win Win. They made a ship to deliver gas to Kaliningrad without needing expensive new infrastructure to be built.

Cooperation in the energy sector alone is big leverage for Russia's foreign policy, and of course that there is some truth behind the statement about "weaponizing pipelines".

Bullshit. The only side weaponising the Gas pipelines is their opponents... the Russians know if they ever tried to apply pressure with gas supplies it would totally back fire so they can't use it. A lesson the US would have been wise to listen to as their use of their dollar as a weapon has led to Russia and quite a few other countries reducing their use of the dollar which damages the US more than it damages Russia. Russia promised to stop using the dollar decades ago but never followed through... it was only the US using the dollar as a weapon that led to the change...

And it is hurting the US more than Russia now.

Hell, the Aurus project would not be possible without cooperation with BMW.
The whole turbine business is being developed along with Siemens.

And without THALES of France Russian thermal sights would be poor quality and not even very cheap.

The point is that now they are up to speed they don't benefit from continued cooperation... Russia can make its own engines and turbines and thermal imagers and composite aircraft wings...

All the success of Lada, or Gaz Group lately, is a matter of cooperation with Renault.
It is European lobbyists responsible to calm things down, as they have billions in pipelined projects.
Why screw it?

There is stability in a pipeline where margins can be reduced and it still makes sense, but western governments are actively seeking to damage Russia so cooperation just adds strings they can cut and adds to the damage they can do.

Russia should look to Asia instead of Europe.

pfftt... What is Berlin going to do? Cry? Have a tanty? Stop buying gas and just accept the reality of needing to load shed entire cities when the electrical grid loses steam in Winter?

It was all explained rather well by Alexander Mercouris, when he said this agreement with Germany and the US is basically corruption... Russia is to subsidise the Ukranian economy and that money is to be spent on renewable energy technology... essentially Germany pressures Russia to keep transit gas through the Ukraine and the Ukraine will spend that money on renewable energy technology... which they will obviously buy from Germany because they don't have any...

The real amusing thing is the German officials talking about negotiating with Russia from a position of power... Russia is now more powerful than it has been in the last 30 years and during that time the only pressure Russia responded to was under Yeltsen, but under Putin even when Russia was relatively weak such use of power from the west did not get the results they wanted, and is even less likely to be effective now.

GarryB wrote:

Because for Germany the alternative is shipped American gas which is four times more expensive... which is why they only show token interest in it most of the time.

No, it is not, actually, the contract prices for the gas itself are similar for piped and liquified.
The real issue is, that LNG you can buy on spot transaction, so in some cases, it can be less expensive than the long-term contracted one, delivered via the pipe.
But you can not make it an advantage other than political bullshit, having no storage capacity to hold it.
What makes a difference is the cost of regasification.
In Poland, for propaganda purposes, they used the LNG prices to prove the "freedom gas" being less expensive than the Russian one. Not adding the other costs applied, that made it 20-30% more expensive.
But it is not 1/4.

GarryB wrote:
By putting it onto ships they can expand the countries they can sell it to countries less hostile to Russia that could benefit from cheaper gas sources. They developed a ship that could take on normal gas and liquefy it as it takes it on board so it can carry much larger volumes of gas than if it just compressed it, but it can deliver its gas to ports where they receive normal gas rather than liquified gas so they don't need complex and expensive infrastructure at their ports to accept liquified gas like Germany is having to do to please the US.
Win Win. They made a ship to deliver gas to Kaliningrad without needing expensive new infrastructure to be built.

As maybe you have not noticed that this is exactly what they are doing, loading a streamline of LNG tankers and sending those worldwide.
US including  
And there is already a full LNG terminal at Kaliningrad for several years.

GarryB wrote:
There is stability in a pipeline where margins can be reduced and it still makes sense, but western governments are actively seeking to damage Russia so cooperation just adds strings they can cut and adds to the damage they can do.
Russia should look to Asia instead of Europe.

"Asia" is a word with extreme buoyancy. First, you need tons of investments applied there, when all that infrastructure already exists here in Europe. And this is what they are doing now, still, your suggestion is that they should cease the cooperation with the existing customers?  

GarryB wrote:
It was all explained rather well by Alexander Mercouris, when he said this agreement with Germany and the US is basically corruption... Russia is to subsidise the Ukranian economy and that money is to be spent on renewable energy technology... essentially Germany pressures Russia to keep transit gas through the Ukraine and the Ukraine will spend that money on renewable energy technology... which they will obviously buy from Germany because they don't have any...
The real amusing thing is the German officials talking about negotiating with Russia from a position of power... Russia is now more powerful than it has been in the last 30 years and during that time the only pressure Russia responded to was under Yeltsen, but under Putin even when Russia was relatively weak such use of power from the west did not get the results they wanted, and is even less likely to be effective now.

First, you are considering the issues from a very short perspective.
What do you think, how long will Europe kneel towards the US, which is getting weaker each day?
Corruption?
Of course, it is, you aren't naive, are you?
It is a pure water bribe to push the issue forward.
Europe is very good on that, we can bribe the whole continent if needed.
"Renewable energy" means that EU companies will draw all that money, the Ukrainian part that they will need to add for each and every project, burp, and ask for more.
For each euro from EU funds applied to a new member, "old" Europes companies get E1.20 back. Ukropia is not a member state, and won't be one in the predictable future. They will be shaved to the skin if there is anything left anyway.
What Merkel told Bindzcheimer, he has forgot already.  It is a deal between the US and Germany. Who cares?
The real importance of this "deal" gets clear, as soon as you consider all the yapping among "the leading European powers" like Pribalts, Poland, and Ukrs.
They all know the war is lost.
And Poland is next in line to lost transit fees, too.  Yamal can be a closed-end at Belarus at any moment when NS2 will start to operate.
The situation will be similar to the one we faced in the Balkans. All the barking towards South Stream ended up in adjusting the pipeline route, ending up in Turkey, left the previously considered as a beneficiary Bulgaria, and forced all the countries there to speed up own pipes construction, to connect to the TurkStream on time.

Gazprom exports abroad increase by 23% in 2021, 02.08.2021.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) - Exports of the Russian energy company Gazprom to foreign countries, with the exception of the post-Soviet states, increased by 23.2% to 115,300 million cubic meters of gas between January and July 2021, according to the company's preliminary data.

"The company increased its exports abroad to 115,300 million cubic meters of gas, (...) growth is estimated at 23.2% [21.7 billion cubic meters], compared to the same period of 2020," Gazprom wrote in a statement.

It stressed that the volume of its supplies is close to the historical record of 117,100 million cubic meters in the first seven months of 2018.

Specifically, Gazprom increased gas supplies to Turkey (203.9%), Germany (42.2%), Italy (16.2%), Romania (318.3%), Poland (14.6%), Serbia (118.1%), Bulgaria (47%), France (6%), Greece (18.8%), in addition, gas supplies to China continue to grow through the Force of Siberia gas pipeline.

At the same time, Gazprom's production so far in 2021 grew by 18.4% to 298.2 billion cubic meters compared to the same period in 2020, the Russian gas company added in its Telegram channel.

"Between January and July 2021, the company, according to preliminary data, produced 298,200 million cubic meters of gas, is 18.4% (46,400 million cubic meters) more than in the same period last year [2020]," it said.

It adds that during this period, supplies of the gas transmission system to the domestic market increased by 15.4%, or 19,800 million cubic meters.

Yandex Translate

https://mundo.sputniknews.com/20210802/las-exportaciones-de-gazprom-al-extranjero-aumentan-el-23-en-2021-1114694810.html

https://www.rt.com/business/530904-nord-stream-poland-certification/

Poland 'expects' to participate in Nord Stream 2 certification after failing to stop Russian pipeline project

Polish oil and gas company PGNiG and its German subsidiary PGNiG Supply & Trading are planning to take part in the certification procedures for the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.
The Polish state-controlled energy company has reportedly submitted a request for participation in the certification procedure for the Gazprom-run enterprise.

A statement released by PGNiG on its website says the state company "expects" permission to be granted.

“This procedure will determine if the pipeline owner will gain a privileged position on the European gas market,” the statement goes on to say.

The real issue is, that LNG you can buy on spot transaction, so in some cases, it can be less expensive than the long-term contracted one, delivered via the pipe.

Russia has long term contracts to supply and the gas reserves to meet the needs of those contracts... as you mention the US does not even have enough gas to supply its own needs.

What makes a difference is the cost of regasification.

The ship they use to deliver gas to Kaliningrad does that itself.

But it is not 1/4.

No, it is a million times more expensive, because it will create a dependency on an unreliable and dishonest supplier called the United States of America who would rather see Europe freeze and stop production than use Russian gas for energy.

As maybe you have not noticed that this is exactly what they are doing, loading a streamline of LNG tankers and sending those worldwide.
US including Laughing
And there is already a full LNG terminal at Kaliningrad for several years.

Not enough to be able to walk away from NSII...

"Asia" is a word with extreme buoyancy. First, you need tons of investments applied there, when all that infrastructure already exists here in Europe. And this is what they are doing now, still, your suggestion is that they should cease the cooperation with the existing customers?

Ditch hostile enemy countries who openly admit to doing everything in their power to harm Russia, and supply honest customers wanting to trade on equal terms with affordable energy to help them grow their economies.

What do you think, how long will Europe kneel towards the US, which is getting weaker each day?

How can Europe ever be independent again... it is a whipped pack of dogs that thinks they are in charge and that the collar end of the leash is where they are.

Who cares about Europe, they just want to follow... in a decade or two they will be taking orders from Israel... they would want to take orders from China but I don't think China would want to take on the task of house training them... so much work to do for so little potential reward...

And Poland is next in line to lost transit fees, too. Yamal can be a closed-end at Belarus at any moment when NS2 will start to operate.

Can't see Belarus being happy about that with their loss of transit fees.

That new ship they built in 2019 that takes on and liquefies the gas and can then gasify the liquid when it gets to the place it is delivering is going to mean Kaliningrad is good for gas no matter who turns off the pipes leading to them... otherwise it is not a Russian problem really...

Honestly, I would just say there is not enough gas, lets just close down these pipelines to Europe and Germany can either buy french nuclear power, or set up exercise bicycles and get their unemployed and illegal migrants pedalling...

The money Russia makes with sales to europe only make europe stronger and more competitive in international trade competing against Russia.

New ships that can liquefy gas as it loads and gasify as it unloads seems to be the best solution for Russia... not so much for Europe, but that is not Russias problem.

All the barking towards South Stream ended up in adjusting the pipeline route, ending up in Turkey, left the previously considered as a beneficiary Bulgaria, and forced all the countries there to speed up own pipes construction, to connect to the TurkStream on time.

That was just justice.... Bulgaria folded to pressure and the cost was being on the tail end of a pipeline getting no transit fees instead of being near the start and getting them from everyone down the line.

In the case of NSII it is countries that have nothing to do with the new line that are bleating because their tantrums and misdeeds in the past that disrupted gas delivery and indeed outright theft, means they have been bypassed but they should count themselves lucky that Russia continues to pump gas through their pipes... they really don't deserve it at all.

Instead of a sincere apology making all this fuss necessary and promises to be more responsible in the future we have them demanding payments whether gas goes through their pipes or not...

Tell me... if you had some one working for you and it turns out they were stealing and also blackmailing your customers... for which you were getting the blame and extra costs, and you hire others to do the same job to give your customers the choice of who to deal with and they started demanding getting paid for work they were not doing... well you understand the situation.

The Ukraine is Americas experiment... they can pay to fix it because Russia will not.

Poland 'expects' to participate in Nord Stream 2 certification after failing to stop Russian pipeline project

This is what I mean... they couldn't stop it, so they want to join and **** it up from the inside.

An obvious no.

GarryB wrote:
The ship they use to deliver gas to Kaliningrad does that itself.

Sure it does.
But not for free.
Liquification is not for free neither.
This is the real price difference factor, not the gas itself.

GarryB wrote:
No, it is a million times more expensive, because it will create a dependency on an unreliable and dishonest supplier called the United States of America who would rather see Europe freeze and stop production than use Russian gas for energy.

You are applying political bias and agenda somewhere where the big boys care shit about politics. They do business.
As you witness, Europe cares less and less Murica behaving like a gorilla.
TurkStream is there, NS is there, NS2 will be there, PoSib is there, there are discussions about pipes to India, there is soon-to-be pipe in Pakistan, there is a project to put a pipe to Sakhalin, with Japan in mind.
Where are all the Murican ideas undermining the Russian energy projects? Where is Nabucco?

GarryB wrote:
Not enough to be able to walk away from NSII...

That's why no one considers it.

GarryB wrote:
Ditch hostile enemy countries who openly admit to doing everything in their power to harm Russia, and supply honest customers wanting to trade on equal terms with affordable energy to help them grow their economies.

Again, as you can see, there is much talking, while reality speaks for itself.
The whole Balkans, Italy and Middle Europe is connected to the Russian gas system via TurkStream.
Poland is connected via Yamal.
Germany is connected via Yamal, NS, and soon NS2, acting as a distribution hub for Western Europe. The Netherlands is the biggest gas receiver in Europe, and even the laudest barking dogs like UK and Poland pay for Russki gas, about 10bln m3 each.
The volume of gas exported by Russia to Europe is incredibly high, concerning pandemics. It is actually higher than Gazprom itself expected, they used to target 166bln cub in 2020, while the real demand was almost 180 bln.
So what you are saying, is to dump it, right?

GarryB wrote:
How can Europe ever be independent again... it is a whipped pack of dogs that thinks they are in charge and that the collar end of the leash is where they are.
Who cares about Europe, they just want to follow... in a decade or two they will be taking orders from Israel... they would want to take orders from China but I don't think China would want to take on the task of house training them... so much work to do for so little potential reward...

Well, your perspective is kinda bizarre, I must tell you sitting just in the middle of Europe.
This year is the first in 20 years when I don't travel across, so I suppose have some perspective
What you are saying is simply not true, buddy.

GarryB wrote:
Can't see Belarus being happy about that with their loss of transit fees.

Not much they can do about it, Gazprom already agreed with Belarus that 4Q21 gas transit will be almost nullified, keeping the technical flow of 1bln m3 only.
When the Polish transit operator tried to sell the transit volume in June, Gazprom didn't even care to bid.
What really brings the cash to the Belarussian energy sector is no transfer fees, but the fact that they can import the resources paid with internal market prices, and use them for production of high added value petrol materials they export later. And Russia is one of the main customers, making this whole process an elegant way to subsidize them.

GarryB wrote:
That new ship they built in 2019 that takes on and liquefies the gas and can then gasify the liquid when it gets to the place it is delivering is going to mean Kaliningrad is good for gas no matter who turns off the pipes leading to them... otherwise it is not a Russian problem really...

It is nothing unusual, this type of tanker is not something extraordinary.

GarryB wrote:
Honestly, I would just say there is not enough gas, lets just close down these pipelines to Europe and Germany can either buy french nuclear power, or set up exercise bicycles and get their unemployed and illegal migrants pedalling...

That keeps the logic until you realize that there is enough gas in the system.
Most of the export to Europe starts on the fields on Yamal. The remaining part of it is being purchased by Russia in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, transferred by the existing Soviet-legacy gas system.
All the export to China is being made with new extraction fields, this is brand newly developed infrastructure in Eastern Siberia.
Those systems are not connected, there is only a project of Power of Siberia 2, leading from Yamal to Mongolia, that is to be connected with the existing Power of Siberia. We are talking distant future, and another $20-30 bln investments needed.
Your advice can be shortened to the opinion, that they should stop using the infrastructure they already have, some of it back from the Soviet times, costing some $200 bln in total, stop making money on it, leave the extraction on the biggest reservoir they have on Yamal that is already running, and stop the cooperation with the customers they do business with for 40 years. And invest some $100 bln to the developing markets on the other side of the continent.
Did I miss something from this brilliant advice?

GarryB wrote:
In the case of NSII it is countries that have nothing to do with the new line that are bleating because their tantrums and misdeeds in the past that disrupted gas delivery and indeed outright theft, means they have been bypassed but they should count themselves lucky that Russia continues to pump gas through their pipes... they really don't deserve it at all.
Instead of a sincere apology making all this fuss necessary and promises to be more responsible in the future we have them demanding payments whether gas goes through their pipes or not...

Poland 'expects' to participate in Nord Stream 2 certification after failing to stop Russian pipeline project

This is what I mean... they couldn't stop it, so they want to join and **** it up from the inside.
An obvious no.

That is their problem, not Russias one.
There is hardly any international law granting this, same as the fine put on Gazprom by Poland's antimonopoly agency means nothing.
Obvious joke.
NS2 is a fact, and all the puppets must deal with that. Master is not holding the lines anymore.
My opinion is, that even if Ukraine will get a bone with no marble, it will be taken back by the Germans with the dog attached to it
And that will happened very soon, you can take it for granted.

Garry, it looks like Gazprom heard you. A long article but the Russians are starting to flex their muscles and put the screws on Europe.

The EU is about to learn a lesson re biting the hand that heats you.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russia-50-less-supply-european-nat-gas-prices-hit-record-putin-turns-screws

The only thing Gazprom did, was redirecting the gas flow to fill its own storage instead of European ones.
EU has 3 major gas storage facilities, in Austria, Germany, and the Netherlands.
The usual practice is, that on weekends when the industrial-based request is lowering, additional flow is directed to storage.
This weekend, Gazprom cut the flow to actual requirements, for example, 60 mln m3 instead of 80 mln to Germany.
There is more than 60 bln m3 extra gas needed, to fill the tanks. And this gas is hardly accessible at the moment without NS2 operating.
So we can call it a double play by Russia.
If there will be further obstacles to NS2, and it would not be able to operate in a regular manner 4Q21 as planned, there will be not enough piped gas for Europe, meaning a sharp price increase for NG delivered both by pipes and by tankers.
Anyway, Gazprom will earn more, no matter the solution. They can deliver a smaller amount of more expensive gas, or normally required, with "normal" prices when NS2 will operate at full swing.
What do you think Europe will do with that dilemma?

Where are all the Murican ideas undermining the Russian energy projects? Where is Nabucco?

Yeah, that guy failed to murder you so just keep doing normal business with him and his bitches and give them more time to get it right...

So what you are saying, is to dump it, right?

Redirect it to better behaved customers with manners and tact.

Well, your perspective is kinda bizarre, I must tell you sitting just in the middle of Europe.

Europe is not friend of Russia and all its rhetoric and public statements talk about sanctions and talking to Russia from a position of power to bring them into line... the line it seems is subservient resource bitch to the west that does as it is told and has no opinions of its own... without ever mentioning what is in it for Russia... no sanctions? They are used to them now... they replaced what they missed.

And Russia is one of the main customers, making this whole process an elegant way to subsidize them.

Till their colour revolution and then the EU will bend over backwards to buy their products so their economy does not suffer right?

The way they did with the Ukraine...

It is nothing unusual, this type of tanker is not something extraordinary.

But it is more use than pipes to Germany that by EU regulation they can only use half of...

Your advice can be shortened to the opinion, that they should stop using the infrastructure they already have, some of it back from the Soviet times, costing some $200 bln in total, stop making money on it, leave the extraction on the biggest reservoir they have on Yamal that is already running, and stop the cooperation with the customers they do business with for 40 years. And invest some $100 bln to the developing markets on the other side of the continent.
Did I miss something from this brilliant advice?

Well, no... in European terms I am suggesting a pivot away from angry and ungrateful Europe and a shift towards the largely untapped markets of Africa and central and south America and Asia. Building ships to carry the product means you can supply any region you choose and you can adapt who gets the energy... you talk about billions spent in infrastructure... half of that going to the EU cannot be used by EU law... how inefficient and stupid of them, but if they are not interested then delivering the goods to other countries makes sense and also delivering less to a commercial enemy is a good thing too.

That is their problem, not Russias one.
There is hardly any international law granting this, same as the fine put on Gazprom by Poland's antimonopoly agency means nothing.

The problem is that Russia is not dealing with rational people... there will be plenty in Brussels who think that is a brilliant idea and lets put Orcs on the committee too to really keep those Russians in line... as you point out it is a pattern supported by the EU right to the top and throughout all its legal structures that Russia needs to support the Ukraine and Poland and anyone else with their hands out.

Another reason to diminish trade rather than work your arse off trying to make things work.

NS2 is a fact, and all the puppets must deal with that. Master is not holding the lines anymore.

America is already tying Germany to an agreement that gives America control of the taps to NSII so if the US is not happy they can turn the gas supply off as punishment. They are also demanding Germany pay Ukraine and try to force Russia to do the same for gas they don't even deliver with the promise that the Ukraine will spend most of their money buying products from Germany that are clean energy related...

My opinion is, that even if Ukraine will get a bone with no marble, it will be taken back by the Germans with the dog attached to it Laughing
And that will happened very soon, you can take it for granted.

Your opinion is worth no more than mine... Russia has a product which it is trying to deliver to customers and those customers and their friends are doing everything to make things difficult and all these customers have done open damage to the Russian economy and have declared they seek a position of strength regarding Russia so they can continue to do the same.

Russia makes money selling gas to the EU, but it can make money selling that gas to any country... any country not actively working against them is a much better customer than the EU.

Garry, it looks like Gazprom heard you. A long article but the Russians are starting to flex their muscles and put the screws on Europe.

The EU is about to learn a lesson re biting the hand that heats you.

After Trump, and now Biden I think Putin has had enough and Russian government figures and companies will be the same... they have picked themselves up off the ground and dusted their suit off and the west thinks it can keep blowing dust in their face... think again.

Conveniently the article leaves out the critical detail that EU-tardia's regulations prevent Gazprom from contracting more than 50% of its export pipeline capacity.
So Gazprom is under no obligation to ship any extra just because EU-tardia now wants it. Eat shit EU-tardia.

How very Putin... hurting the EU by following the EUs rules to the letter...

Funny how quickly they go from Russia is building new pipelines as a weapon against Europe to Russia is not sending us enough gas and we are going to freeze...

What do you think Europe will do with that dilemma?

More fundamentally after how many decades of never using energy as a weapon against its customers... Russia is doing to the EU 0.00000001% of what the EU does to Russia... which I say is a good start... but only to the west... the last thing we need is another EU or another US on this planet.

GarryB wrote:
Yeah, that guy failed to murder you so just keep doing normal business with him and his bitches and give them more time to get it right...

Sometimes, I can not get rid of a feeling, that you are discussing the things just "to discuss", no matter how pointless it is  

GarryB wrote:
Redirect it to better behaved customers with manners and tact.

This redirecting requires billions of investments, years to build the capacity, years to develop the market, and will end up just the same - dependence on the east direction in opposite to the west one. This is why that is the last thing they will do.

GarryB wrote:
Europe is not friend of Russia and all its rhetoric and public statements  talk about sanctions and talking to Russia from a position  of power to bring them into line... the line it seems is subservient resource bitch to the west that does as it is told and has no opinions of its own... without ever mentioning what is in it for Russia... no sanctions? They are used to them now... they replaced what they missed.

It does not matter.
Europe is here. Russia is there. That won't change.
They deal for 40 years.
Deal with it  

GarryB wrote:
But it is more use than pipes to Germany that by EU regulation they can only use half of...

It was just clear for a long time, still did not kill the project.
Do you know better the profit margin than they do?

GarryB wrote:
Well, no... in European terms I am suggesting a pivot away from angry and ungrateful Europe and a shift towards the largely untapped markets of Africa and central and south America and Asia. Building ships to carry the product means you can supply any region you choose and you can adapt who gets the energy... you talk about billions spent in infrastructure... half of that going to the EU cannot be used by EU law... how inefficient and stupid of them, but if they are not interested then delivering the goods to other countries makes sense and also delivering less to a commercial enemy is a good thing too.

"ungrateful"?    
"angry"?    
Bud, you are using words that no one uses in business.

GarryB wrote:
The problem is that Russia is not dealing with rational people... there will be plenty in Brussels who think that is a brilliant idea and lets put Orcs on the committee too to really keep those Russians in line... as you point out it is a pattern supported by the EU right to the top and throughout all its legal structures that Russia needs to support the Ukraine and Poland and anyone else with their hands out.

The rationality of a political class is an issue indeed, but this is not a constant thing, but a variable.
What is constant, is a half+ billion rich market just around the corner, connected with infrastructure, and with almost half a century of mutual cooperation, that you recommend to dump down the toilet, because of some childish "grateful" bullshit.

By the way, here you have a last weekend cause explained, easily.

Sometimes, I can not get rid of a feeling, that you are discussing the things just "to discuss", no matter how pointless it is

Not at all. Russia is sometimes guilty of being too nice and too tolerant.

The US and EU have repeatedly implemented hostile moves and sanctions against Russia and Russia has simply responded to counter their moves... no escalation from their part, just responses... which often resulted in shock in the west that they have responded to western attacks on Russia... how dare they respond.

Why is Russia working so hard to deliver cheap reliable energy supplies to what is effectively their self declared enemy... in the long term it wont be appreciated and just be seen as a sign of weakness to be exploited.

This redirecting requires billions of investments, years to build the capacity, years to develop the market, and will end up just the same - dependence on the east direction in opposite to the west one. This is why that is the last thing they will do.

That money has already been spent.... do you think the Zvezda ship yard built with South Korean expertise to handle ships up to 350K tons dry weight was for fun?

Being able to ship product world wide will release them from their basic problem of dealing with the world through Europe which intentionally makes things harder and slower and more expensive.

Here in New Zealand to buy Russian made ammo we go through traders in Germany and with trade sanctions we are not getting much at all. We haven't got trade sanctions against Russia... lets cut out the european middle man and buy their stuff.

It does not matter.
Europe is here. Russia is there. That won't change.
They deal for 40 years.
Deal with it

The rest of the world is out there for Russia to develop trade links with, europe is pushing Russia to look at those other options.... not developed to start with, but much greater potential for both parties to grow and develop and prosper.

It was just clear for a long time, still did not kill the project.
Do you know better the profit margin than they do?

I know there are customers out there who don't hate Russians and want them to waste money and then try to cancel things they started just to be a pain in the ass.

Bud, you are using words that no one uses in business.

Unreliable, high risk, longer term they will be working hard on alternative products to remove you from their portfolio... active competitor and rival keen to sabotage your business with third parties.

The rationality of a political class is an issue indeed, but this is not a constant thing, but a variable.

Sound right but it isn't. Western governments on the left or on the right have been just as bad and actually compete with each other over who is tougher on Russia... which means there is little future for good relations and business ties for the near future until they stop being .

What is constant, is a half+ billion rich market just around the corner, connected with infrastructure, and with almost half a century of mutual cooperation, that you recommend to dump down the toilet, because of some childish "grateful" bullshit.

I am not suggesting cutting them off completely, but no extra effort to improve supply... no extra helpings of gas to keep the price low, no improved capacity at the cost of billions in investments that may not be returned any time soon.

By the way, here you have a last weekend cause explained, easily.

They are fluctuating their delivery to maximise their profit rather than build security and safety margins by having lots of product in storage in their storage areas... so the EU has gotten what it feared, they now lose energy security because these pipes are not going to be used to capacity now and if they refuse or block pipes the Russians will not bend over backwards to ensure they get as much gas as they need... the video hints at penalties for over supply which is actually not in the EUs interests... having plenty of energy available is good for energy security but bad for the supplier in terms of price and therefore margins.

Great that the EU are such idiots.

The privatisation of electricity supply led to something similar here in New Zealand where there were six main power lines taking energy into Auckland our largest city... after privatisation and most of the workforce were fired because the government company was bloated they ended up with two of the main power lines in operation which meant they couldn't power down one for maintenance in case there was a fault or problem on the other and they could have no power.

When it comes to critical infrastructure efficiency means nothing and can leave you sitting in the dark... bloated government run companies might not be efficient but they keep most of it running.

GarryB wrote:
That money has already been spent.... do you think the Zvezda ship yard built with South Korean expertise to handle ships up to 350K tons dry weight was for fun?
Being able to ship product world wide will release them from their basic problem of dealing with the world through Europe which intentionally makes things harder and slower and more expensive.

Not sure what are you even talk about
Building the fleet capable of transporting 200 bln m3 a year from scratch?
Do you realize it is double the volume of Qatari export?
How long it would take?
How much would that cost?
And you are saying, cose the pipes to EU, right?

GarryB wrote:
Here in New Zealand to buy Russian made ammo we go through traders in Germany and with trade sanctions we are not getting much at all. We haven't got trade sanctions against Russia... lets cut out the european middle man and buy their stuff.

Not sure if you have noticed, that you answered your suggestions.
You buy Russian stuff via a German supplier.
Germany is officially involved in sanctioning Russia. Russia is sanctioning Germany, too.
And you, living in a country that has nothing to do with sanctions, use middle man to connect two de jure sanctioning themself countries
Does it sound funny to you, or not?
And what does it tell you about the "sanctions" and actual relations here in Europe?

GarryB wrote:
The rest of the world is out there for Russia to develop trade links with, europe is pushing Russia to look at those other options.... not developed to start with, but much greater potential for both parties to grow and develop and prosper.

Sure the rest of the world is out there, that is why Power of Siberia was built, that is why Gazprom invests in the Sakhalin LNG terminal pointing Japan directly. And you know with whom? With Shell. Since 2015. This is why Power of Siberia 2 is in development, heading Mongolia, and connecting the Yamal fields with the system in development along the Baikal. This is why the Russians building a 1100 km pipe and LNG terminal in Pakistan. This is why the project of pipe to India is running for several years now. This is why it will go through China to Myanma, another 100+ mln people developing country. This is why LNG terminals at Yamal are heating up red at the moment, loading gas and sailing towards Asia.
But how it connects to your suggestion to quit 180bln m3 a year export to Europe?

GarryB wrote:
Unreliable, high risk, longer term they will be working hard on alternative products to remove you from their portfolio... active competitor and rival keen to sabotage your business with third parties.

Yes, now you are talking more reasonable language from a business perspective, however, it is a false statement just from the beginning.
They are dealing for almost half a century now, with direct business connections.
All major European energy companies are connected with Russian partners, owning mutual concessions, common business, and common goals.
European money is allocated to all major Russian investments in this sector.
Even wondered the name Christophe de Margerie on the Russian LNG YAMALMAX tanker?
Step out of the main information stream, take some professional press materials instead. It should be amazing and refreshing for you, same time.

GarryB wrote:
Sound right but it isn't. Western governments on the left or the right have been just as bad and actually compete with each other over who is tougher on Russia... which means there is little future for good relations and business ties for the near future until they stop being   .

Not at all, this project is only some 15 years old, and it is targeted at Russia just a bit more than it targets the EU itself.
It was just a part of the US hegemony game, that they have already lost.
And that is the point. At the beginning of the 00s, we have witnessed increasing cooperation between Russia and the EU, which had to be destroyed from the US perspective.
This is when all the political and military activities around Russia arise, increasing pressure on the European political class. Georgian intrusion into South Ossetia was just one of the bricks used to build the wall between Russia and Europe. Poland and Romania were used to this, too.

franco wrote:Pipes are running out in Germany on the basis of Nord Stream 2

They are "running out", because the pipe is almost finished. They don't need two football stadiums area full of pipes anymore.
If one would take a route from Binz to Sassnitz, the whole train cargo terminal there was fully loaded with pipes. I will check if I still have pics of that taken on a trip

Edit : sorry guys, could only find those two relevant to the matter.



This is a rail/port terminal at the outskirts of Sassnitz, Murkan, seen from Sellin beach perspective. It was functionally full of pipes. What is interesting, it was full of wind turbines masts, and blades only 5 years ago, but once NS2 construction started, that all was taken by pipes. Pipes, pipes, pipes everywhere

And here is how they transport the pipes on board the construction vessels :



Tugging it on barges.

Yes I know, just another bullshit story in a MSM.
The title did not fit the story inside, but hell, who cares

By the way, Rugia is a great recommendation for wasting your time, I will only leave that

Not sure what are you even talk about scratch
Building the fleet capable of transporting 200 bln m3 a year from scratch?

Have you not been reading this thread... just one article a while back mentioned the largest independent gas supplier was increasing its gas tanker fleet from 16 ships to about 50 ships in the next few years... do you think other companies are cutting down their ship numbers?

And you are saying, cose the pipes to EU, right?

No, don't close the pipes to the EU though I suspect the first chance they get the US will create a situation where they are closed again and not from the Russian end again.

The simple fact is that the EU is a politically psychotic customer that might stop buying Russian energy if they think they can get away with another alternative and are desperately struggling to find an alternative energy source.

It is not something Russia should invest in to expand or expect to be there in the future.

They support and enable Ukrainian theft and dishonesty.

Not sure if you have noticed, that you answered your suggestions.
You buy Russian stuff via a German supplier.

And it doesn't work because we can't get it because of sanction tiffs from the EU directed at Russia.

We are paying assholes in Germany to access Russian products... **** them.

Does it sound funny to you, or not?

New Zealand is a tiny economy at the bottom of the world... we get screwed like this all the time. Get on an apple and try to buy a song. Change your location to New Zealand and you will find an extra dollar added to the cost of any song you want to buy to download... it has nothing to shipping or packing and everything to do with distribution contracts and the way business is conducted in the world... the little countries pay more... assuming they can even get access in the first place.

And what does it tell you about the "sanctions" and actual relations here in Europe?

I don't give a shit about the bullshit games you Uropeans play, I just want to buy stuff direct from Russia and cut out the ass hole middle men in europe.

Sadly Russia often encourages such problems by only selling in volumes that are not affordable for smaller countries, but over time I hope they realise the mistake they are making.

But how it connects to your suggestion to quit 180bln m3 a year export to Europe?

Why are you so pissy about Europe getting cut off... they want Russia to be the bad guy don't they.

The only times Russian gas has actually been cut off is because the Ukraine did it.

Ever since Russia has been working hard jumping through the anti Russian minefield of EU law.... much of which is written expressly to thwart them personally, do get more gas capacity to Germany and all they get is shit for it.

I am not saying block the pipes, I am saying don't fight tooth and nail to fix problems that are Germany and the EUs and NOT RUSSIAN.

If there is not enough gas supply because the Ukraine has started stealing and the US has turned off NSII taps in protest then Russia can deliver gas via boats.... it is not that far... there will be delays... sue Kiev and Washington.

When the gas is flowing those ships can deliver energy to any part of the planet, which I am sure will appreciate the resource.

Stop pissing money into the Europe money pit and invest in infrastructure that can deliver product anywhere.

All major European energy companies are connected with Russian partners, owning mutual concessions, common business, and common goals.

The EU and US have declared Russia and China the enemy... those links can be gradually broken, whether from the wests side or from the Russian side, and Russia can look for cooperation and business partners from other countries instead.

It was just a part of the US hegemony game, that they have already lost.

Did they?

They are already demanding agreements with Germany regarding the future of those pipelines... something they should have nothing to do with except Europeans are pussies and think the only thing holding back a massive Russian invasion of Europe is Washington... which of course is just a joke but why change now?

And that is the point. At the beginning of the 00s, we have witnessed increasing cooperation between Russia and the EU, which had to be destroyed from the US perspective.
This is when all the political and military activities around Russia arise, increasing pressure on the European political class. Georgian intrusion into South Ossetia was just one of the bricks used to build the wall between Russia and Europe. Poland and Romania were used to this, too.

The project to divide Europe from Russia has been very successful.... Russia cannot even compete at the Olympics as Russia...


Europe is Americas bitch now... just like the Ukraine and Georgia are the wests problem now too... enjoy.... there is a whole world out there that wants to trade and grow and develop and they don't want to stifle the growth and development of the countries they trade with. Equal trades where one side does not make demands on the other to allow their large companies in to rape and steal.

Russia and China are better off steering clear of the west, but will be happy to make some money selling them gas...

GarryB wrote:
Have you not been reading this thread... just one article a while back mentioned the largest independent gas supplier was increasing its gas tanker fleet from 16 ships to about 50 ships in the next few years... do you think other companies are cutting down their ship numbers?

So you are saying, that the water is wet?
Everybody is extending the gas carrier's fleet.
Take a look at the worldwide gas consumption prognosis.
The point there is, that more than half of the increase potential in this decade would be accumulated in the Pacific Asia area.
There are no pipes there, and it would be extremely hard and time consuming to build those. In some cases, impossible.
That is why a Sakhalin just get his 3rd production line there, and this is why there would be the next terminal nearby Vladivostok.
The real problem is, that those operators are not independent for real, if you consider scenarios with your "optimism"
That is why any serious gas exporter owns his own fleet, no matter if it is registered in third country.

GarryB wrote:
No, don't close the pipes to the EU though I suspect the first chance they get the US will create a situation where they are closed again and not from the Russian end again.
The simple fact is that the EU is a politically psychotic customer that might stop buying Russian energy if they think they can get away with another alternative and are desperately struggling to find an alternative energy source.
It is not something Russia should invest in to expand or expect to be there in the future.
They support and enable Ukrainian theft and dishonesty.

Oh, dear marxist lord in heaven
Psychotic customer is the one they deal with for half a century.
They are connected.
What part of that don't you get?
Deal with it.
Even Japs are building gas tankers now to operate with Novatec.
The only serious issue in EU-Russia energy cooperation, was a try to force Siemens to stop turbines delivery, due to the relocation of big electric turbines they delivered from mainland Russia to Crimea.
You know how it ended?
Siemens was forced not only to locate the production of the turbines to Russia but - what is particularly interesting - to secure full technical documentation there.
And the subject was closed for good.
You are judging the things and decisions made in the past, with your present and actual knowledge. When the decision about NS2 was put on the table, NS was already running smooth. Its construction was smooth, either. Don't suppose that anyone neither in Europe nor Russia considered, that "the Noble peace prize winner" from Kongo will unleash a regular war to blow up further cooperation increase. But this is what we have witnessed. There was a regular economic war that started between the EU and US, no matter how sweet&warm it was described in the media. Or how it was not described
A multibillion fines against the business, "VW Affair", "Apple affair", "Airbus affair", "Amazon affair" ... all that was going on in the background, when NS2 was already started.
Till then, the only real issue was, when a drunken farmed digged out an optic fibre. When Ukraine was stealing the gas, the only country that really blows the pipe for that, was Poland.

GarryB wrote:
New Zealand is a tiny economy at the bottom of the world... we get screwed like this all the time. Get on an apple and try to buy a song. Change your location to New Zealand and you will find an extra dollar added to the cost of any song you want to buy to download... it has nothing to shipping or packing and everything to do with distribution contracts and the way business is conducted in the world... the little countries pay more... assuming they can even get access in the first place.

You are not alone in that my friend, any try to tax US-based IT giants like Google of Facebook ended up adding the tax to the service cost.
I simply get an info, that from now on, there will be an IT tax added to my invoice, totalling 5%, which is actually much more than the tax itself.
So the EU will tax US giants with the cash taken out from the pockets of its residents.
How clever!

GarryB wrote:
Why are you so pissy about Europe getting cut off... they want Russia to be the bad guy don't they.

Because you are talking about the gas I am using cooking dinner for my family and heating.
I guess my position to be pissed on that brilliant suggestions has some fundaments, agree?

GarryB wrote:
Ever since Russia has been working hard jumping through the anti Russian minefield of EU law.... much of which is written expressly to thwart them personally, do get more gas capacity to Germany and all they get is shit for it.

You are talking again the things never experienced.
It is not that Russia is forced to jump on a minefield. Every business in EU is doing just the same. Some ideas of EU Commission are idiotic, others are not. Some direct from antimonopoly law, some from customer rights, this system is different.

GarryB wrote:
I am not saying block the pipes, I am saying don't fight tooth and nail to fix problems that are Germany and the EUs and NOT RUSSIAN.
If there is not enough gas supply because the Ukraine has started stealing and the US has turned off NSII taps in protest then Russia can deliver gas via boats.... it is not that far... there will be delays... sue Kiev and Washington.

I suppose you will start to notice, that this is what they are functionally doing.
Last weekend is the best example.

GarryB wrote:
The EU and US have declared Russia and China the enemy... those links can be gradually broken, whether from the wests side or from the Russian side, and Russia can look for cooperation and business partners from other countries instead.

What are you even talk about?
The whole Europe is just about to give a blowjob to the Chinese to be connected to the transport corridor.
China ownes whole airports, harbours here in EU. They are buying companies, building roads, bridges, rails.
Not bad for a countries at war, agree?

GarryB wrote:
Did they?

I guess.
When I saw a list of the biggest harbours in the world, it tells functionally everything.
In the first 20 positions, there is ONE port in the US, Los Angeles. Placed 16th.
And as many as 3 ports from Europe - Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg at 10th, 13th and 17th position ...
All the remaining ones are located in Asia, and most of those being Chinese.
It means, that they don't export to "big and wealthy US/UE" anymore, but transport goods along their own locations.
This is where today's economy works, this is where life is.