Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #3

Scorpius wrote:But Russia does not serve Europe at its own expense. It is Europe that pays for the development of infrastructure in Russia and the preservation of jobs. Where do you think all the money that is received from the EU countries for gas supplies goes?

Are you going to now claim that $40 per thousand cubic meters of Russian natural gas is a great price for Russia?

You also invoke a false dichotomy. Those jobs and infrastructure can be paid better by Asian money.

kvs wrote:

Scorpius wrote:But Russia does not serve Europe at its own expense. It is Europe that pays for the development of infrastructure in Russia and the preservation of jobs. Where do you think all the money that is received from the EU countries for gas supplies goes?

Are you going to now claim that $40 per thousand cubic meters of Russian natural gas is a great price for Russia?

You also invoke a false dichotomy.   Those jobs and infrastructure can be paid better by Asian money.

Yes get Russia dependent on nothing but Chinese money, see how well that works.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

kvs wrote:

Scorpius wrote:But Russia does not serve Europe at its own expense. It is Europe that pays for the development of infrastructure in Russia and the preservation of jobs. Where do you think all the money that is received from the EU countries for gas supplies goes?

Are you going to now claim that $40 per thousand cubic meters of Russian natural gas is a great price for Russia?

You also invoke a false dichotomy.   Those jobs and infrastructure can be paid better by Asian money.

Yes get Russia dependent on nothing but Chinese money, see how well that works.

Who owes over 1 trillion Dollar to the Chinese?

kvs wrote:
Are you going to now claim that $40 per thousand cubic meters of Russian natural gas is a great price for Russia?
You also invoke a false dichotomy.   Those jobs and infrastructure can be paid better by Asian money.

Again .. what do you even talk about?
The average for this year is $200+, and it is $240 from June on.
Its price rises 40% since May ...
The lowest point in 15 - read FIFTEEN YEARS - used to be $170 bcm.
$40? Kidding me?
Guys, seriously ...
Get out of a closet
You are spreading pure bullshit, all around.
Grow up. I know you have an agenda but try at least ...

kvs wrote:

Are you going to now claim that $40 per thousand cubic meters of Russian natural gas is a great price for Russia?

You also invoke a false dichotomy.   Those jobs and infrastructure can be paid better by Asian money.

the last time I was interested in gas prices , the figure of $ 40 appeared in the manuals of Western trolls and was associated with the allegedly unprofitable construction project of the "Power of Siberia". When I checked the data, it turned out that this figure does not correspond to the real data at all. I decided to go and check now.
1. The price for 1000 cubic meters of gas for the population of Russia is now 4000-6000 rubles. You can calculate how much it is in dollars at the current exchange rate. What do you think, will Russia send anything for export for $ 40 in this case?
P.S. I found figures of about $ 40... per megawatt-hour (another fictional unit designed to mask the real cost of gas). And $ 40 per MW is equivalent to a price of about $ 500 per thousand cubic meters. Oh yeah. It's nowhere cheaper - it's almost for nothing. Sarcasm mode off.
2. Gazprom said that the price of gas for China is only 10% higher than the price for the European market. While the gas goes to Europe through the already existing infrastructure,. providing tens of thousands of jobs. Did I understand correctly that you are proposing to abandon the existing infrastructure and the established market in favor of the multi - billion-dollar construction of new gas pipelines-and this is for the sake of the probability of getting 10% more?

Going back to the GarryB/ALAMO discussion

To expand ties with your frenemies, or to distance oneself from them...

Hmm

One might be tempted to choose to cut them off, in fear of the strings being used as pressure points, fear of strengthening them, fear of malign influence, or even fear of becoming more like the other side

Equally, there is the old saying though, to keep your friends close, but your enemies closer. Make them feel at ease, you might understand more about them and what they're up to if you do. Equally, ties also go both ways and you can always pressure them too.


But you see I actually think both these paradigms are wrong. Or rather, specific to the situation. One is borne from insecurity, while the other can imply overconfidence. Neither can be allowed to override calculation though. And the calculation has to take into account that for whatever intentions or efforts - today's friends can become tommorow's enemies, and today's enemies tommorow's friends, that you might be working on some genius plot but the other guy already figured it out and vice-versa, and a whole bunch of other things.
It's useless to devolve international relations to simple formulas.

The way I see it, closer ties with Europe only benefit Russia and its economy, it's set of options and its opportunities. Without even considering what they think of Russia or what their plans are. Who even cares.
Closer ties with China benefit Russia the same way
Closer ties with South America
Closer ties with North America
Closer ties with India
Closer ties with Israel
Closer ties with Palestine
Closer ties with anyone

Expand everywhere. Simultaneously.

And if someone decides to cut strings and put up roadblocks. Well fine. No big deal there are ties to everyone else to foster in the meantime. It's like the Soviet art of war. What happens when your divisions encounter heavy resistance? Stop the offensive immediately, and simply start another further down the line where there is less resistance.
The Germans didn't conquer France in WW2 by creating a new Verdun out of every situation either. In fact they used their enemy's overconfidence against them.

So I find myself more agreeing with ALAMO's words, for my own reasons.

I think this is what Russia has been doing so far - expand cooperation and economics on every front. Then just cuts loose when/if other country or entity stirs trouble.

miketheterrible wrote:I think this is what Russia has been doing so far - expand cooperation and economics on every front.  Then just cuts loose when/if other country or entity stirs trouble.

Exactly right.

Although it was certainly in complacency before 2014. Maybe it expanded on every front, but not its own domestic one.

So you are saying, that the water is wet?

So you are saying I am right and they are doing what I suggest they should be doing... excellent.

Psychotic customer is the one they deal with for half a century.
They are connected.
What part of that don't you get? scratch
Deal with it.

They are not as connected as you seem to think and more importantly having pipes that link the EU to Russia is not reason for Russia to neglect the rest of the planet and thinking this is it they are being all they can be.

The EU and US have declared Russia the enemy so there is no point building ties and expecting to be allowed to become rich and to remain independent with trade limited to EU neighbours.

The EU is a toxic customer that Russia should not be feeding and growing with cheap energy despite the fact that they earn money from that.

Because you are talking about the gas I am using cooking dinner for my family and heating.

But freedom gas will cook it so much better wont it?

I guess my position to be pissed on that brilliant suggestions has some fundaments, agree?

Don't blame the messenger, it is your pussy politicians who give the US a second thought let alone a say in this stuff.

If your politicians were interested in your situation and your welfare NSII would have been completed and would be up and running at 100 percent capacity and the gas you would be buying would be even cheaper, but now as you say.... it is business... you are the consumer who has to pay for all this infrastructure to be built and delays despite the pipes through the Ukraine being plenty if they were not in control of thieves.

Some direct from antimonopoly law, some from customer rights, this system is different.

Anti monopoly laws that only recently started to be applied to companies like Apple, and will never be used in any situations where they actually need to be applied like with your drinking water...

Not bad for a countries at war, agree?

HATO would collapse if EU business and EU politics ever looked at what the other was doing.

One might be tempted to choose to cut them off, in fear of the strings being used as pressure points, fear of strengthening them, fear of malign influence, or even fear of becoming more like the other side

Equally, there is the old saying though, to keep your friends close, but your enemies closer. Make them feel at ease, you might understand more about them and what they're up to if you do. Equally, ties also go both ways and you can always pressure them too.

That is two options, how about a third option of continuing to sell them what they want... don't bend over backwards in long term advance to help them with potential future problems like increased demand without increased capacity infrastructure and letting them suffer while the new solutions are found.

Pandering to the EU is just creating a noose around Russias neck for them or their owner the US to pull.

Sell them gas... make sure they don't get it too cheap, but look elsewhere for trade... and also back yourself instead of thinking you need EU help or support or investment.

The rest of the world is out there desperate to trade and develop and grow and they know they wont be allowed to develop and grow with western contracts because there is a history there too... this hostility from the west is not about something Russia has done or is doing it is about the fear that the west might get overtaken by Russia or China...

The rest of the world suffers from that too, so trading with Russia and China will be something they desperately want when they find out the western propaganda is propaganda.

Expand everywhere. Simultaneously.

No.

Expand everywhere except those trying to limit and control you... don't reward those for being or they will just continue being .

think this is what Russia has been doing so far - expand cooperation and economics on every front. Then just cuts loose when/if other country or entity stirs trouble.

But that is what I am suggesting and they haven't because if they cut a country or entity loose for stirring trouble there would be no gas to europe.

Europe and the US are not ready to cooperate or treat Russia as an independent country able to make its own decisions and choices and they are using sanctions... economic blackmail to try to force Russia to conform.

Sure, sell them gas but don't do anything to increase ties to that lot till they man up and change their ways... or they never will.

Continuing this discussion is pointless, Garry.
You are not using arguments but emotions.
Yes, we all know, you love Russia and hate everyone outside.
It is all yours

flamming_python wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:I think this is what Russia has been doing so far - expand cooperation and economics on every front.  Then just cuts loose when/if other country or entity stirs trouble.

Exactly right.

Although it was certainly in complacency before 2014. Maybe it expanded on every front, but not its own domestic one.

Some people won't notice that, even if that would bite them in the ass.

They should quit that because Murica is an enemy, dishonest, and smells bad.
Only sell to those who smell nice, are honest, and are friendly.
Searching may last a lifetime, but hey, the result, the result!

Continuing this discussion is pointless, Garry.
You are not using arguments but emotions.
Yes, we all know, you love Russia and hate everyone outside.

I am suggesting Russia trade with those that want to trade openly and fairly... many countries in the EU and of course the US don't want free and fair and open trade because they have monopolies and trade agreements and political power and military force that can change the field of business so that it slopes in their favour.

I am saying Russia should not help those countries and certainly should not help countries that submit to such blackmail.

It is not just energy, countries in the EU like France are making all sorts of negative claims about Sputnik V, should Russia ignore this and just play business as usual?

I am not suggesting invasion or sanctions... but when there are options... don't take the French option because they are not friends.

Now if there was a popular reaction to negative comments about Sputnik V, then you would not be influenced by a few idiots trying to stir the pot.

Trump was an idiot because he went into his presidency wanting improved relations with Russia and was goaded by his political enemies into doing the exact opposite.

Creating more and new ties with such countries just creates strings for them to pull when they want to control you.

I am not saying build a wall, but right now you can't call any person a Nigger, but if that person was Russian you probably could... and that needs to change... and it is not going to change on its own by itself... they need to have a reason to change.

Bidens administration including various heads of certain departments seemed to expect Russia to get on board with US sanctions against China and Iran.... they are idiots.

When they didn't jump on board with these sanctions all of a sudden western media was talking about an alliance between China and Russia...

They don't listen to anyone else but each other so they think what they are doing and saying is common sense... the world is better off with the US in charge... but they never thought about the fact that the world has never had anyone in charge before 1990 and their track record since then has be abysmal... even for their own economies.

If you owned a book shop and a customer who is a regular but buys less and less each time and complains more and more each time they visit... lets say he buys a newspaper from you, but every visit he complains about the things you do and how you run your business.

Are you going to tell him about the new range of books he might be interested in, or just sell him his paper and look forward to when he leaves your shop.

His complaints are things like take down all the christmas decorations because not everyone celebrates christmas, and paint the walls in rainbow colours to support sexual diversity, and where are all the glory holes in your bathrooms... why are all your staff members of your family and all white... where are your coloured workers? Your disabled workers?

The guy is an asshole.

But sell him a paper.

But don't let him buy into the business or marry your daughter or anything.

They should quit that because Murica is an enemy, dishonest, and smells bad.
Only sell to those who smell nice, are honest, and are friendly.
Searching may last a lifetime, but hey, the result, the result!

That is not what I am saying.

The American government and media are an enemy... it is their choice, I am just saying Russia should accept that reality and forget any ideas of becoming a respected and functional part of the west... the only position available is on all fours, and they have already rejected that position.

This means that Russia expects to be a power in the future... not the leading power, and certainly not the only power like the US wants for itself.

Whether the EU remains Americas bitch or starts thinking and working for its own people and its own interests is down to the people of the EU if they can pull finger... the people of the UK clearly thought change from the inside wouldn't work.

Once the trade routes from Asia to the EU and back are working then of course the US will have to sabotage that because all their systems and game plays are geared to the current way things are done... shifting a significant amount of trade over Russian rail and shipping lanes will transfer a lot of power and money to Russia which of course they are not going to stand by and tolerate... can the EU stand up, or will they fall in to line.

It is going to be an interesting test, but the EU is so prone to fail when told by the US what to do... sad really, but I am sure the former colonies of most of the more brutal european countries will find humour there.

@GarryB I read what you said and am confused as to what is it you want. Russia has already over recent years seen a dramatic evolution in its foreign trade and investment profile, whereby China has grown into its major partner. In addition, you applaud Russia's increased oil trade with the US (overall trade remains resilient despite sanctions as well) and you're grateful for the billions of euros filling Russia's coffers for Russian exports to the EU. Yet you continuously call for hardline and hawkish actions like cutting trade ties for bad behaviour toward Russia. What gives?

I think we all agree that it's the West's political elites who have chosen to frame Russia as the enemy, a real life Mordor that the Men of the West need to stand against. I can't think of more than a handful of notorious forum members who would deny that. It's a given, and as Alamo is saying, just deal with it. That's the politics of our time. But trade (and cultural, social, scientific ties etc. etc. etc.) need not be rashly sacrificed by zealots for short term 'revenge'.

I've already stated my admiration of President Putin for his cool, calm and calculated handling of Russia's affairs. And I think that's exactly what is needed. There's no need to cut off your nose to spite your face. Respond asymmetrically to your enemy's moves, and set your own time and place to do so. Russia has and continues to respond in ways advantageous to itself to Western attacks and sanctions. They are not headline grabbers or big showy stunts that the Western media circus enjoys for pushing their own propaganda. But they're clearly working as by our own admission here, Russia's global power and relevance and prestige has actually been GROWING in spite of it all! That's what happens when you play the patient game; the quiet, smart game. I've said it before, Russia should not aspire to be America.

As an example, I like to point to Turkey's shooting down of Russia's Su-24 in 2015. Yes even today I read childish comments how soft is Russia and their apparent incapability of responding. Yet a larger observation the situation that followed (and evident even up to today) is that ALL of Turkey's ambitions were and have since been boxed in and hamstrung. Turkey may resort to throwing tantrums every so often it feels like bitching, but in the years since the shoot-down it's Russia who's been showing them who's the real top dog and who's the lap dog. And that's WITHOUT rashly responding like for like. There are smarter ways to bring one's adversaries to heel.

So let the Europeans spew their bile at Russia and relish being violated by Uncle Sam. Nothing lasts forever and sentiments are forever shifting. Maintaining commerce/trade and an overall transactional type of relationship actually serves Russia better than it does the EU (certainly more profitable!). In other areas (for example international diplomacy and foreign relations), there is endless opportunity for Russia to stick it to the US, hard.

The only thing I would do different is rub it into their faces. Put a large sticker onto Nauka that reads "paid for by western sanctions" (= russian rocket engines sold to NASA).

slasher wrote:
As an example, I like to point to Turkey's shooting down of Russia's Su-24 in 2015. Yes even today I read childish comments how soft is Russia and their apparent incapability of responding. Yet a larger observation the situation that followed (and evident even up to today) is that ALL of Turkey's ambitions were and have since been boxed in and hamstrung. Turkey may resort to throwing tantrums every so often it feels like bitching, but in the years since the shoot-down it's Russia who's been showing them who's the real top dog and who's the lap dog. And that's WITHOUT rashly responding like for like. There are smarter ways to bring one's adversaries to heel.

How refreshing to hear a sane voice ...
And I would add to that something more.
The way Russia responded to that provocation has given more fruits than we can imagine.
First and most important, the whole situation was a Murica sponsored try to push both countries into war.
No matter how hawkish Erdogan was back there, no matter what he was pretending, the whole incident was masterminded without his authorization, and executed by the part of a military directly involved in the soon-to-be-started regime change try.
The pilot who shot down the plane was among the firstly arrested members of the army.
The whole ALC in Izmir was sieged by loyal Turkish forces, and the Turk officers there were scared as little kids.
Hell, of the NATO staff there was scared as well, they were in the middle of civil war.
The plot was so extended, that some Turk officers stationing in NATO headquarters in Brussel simply refused the return demanded by Turk command.
We can not consider the things separate, as those are all part of the scene there and a part of a real game.
Things Obama did at the end of his presidency can be simply called a rage.
He was acting like a crazy lunatic, pushing the limits all over, but the general line was to unleash a war that Russia would be involved in.
No matter where, and no matter the real price.
Not bad as for a peace Noble price winner, how they described that those days, "given for encouragement" ...
Erdogan was warned by the Russian side, that there is a coup in being, going to start at the moment. That saved his life, functionally, as he was able to react.
The direct follow up of this situation is the fact, that Russia is building a NPP in Turkey, TurkStream is already operating, S-400 is there, Checkmate is a possible next step of military cooperation. Things settled up in Syria, this way or another. They continue cooperation even instead of the fact, that Russkies are dropping bombs on them as soon as they show the faces further than agreed.
Russian tourists are back in Alanya and Kemmer, Turk building companies are back on Russian stoykas, and tomatoes are back in stores.
Russia-Turkey relations are far better than one would even imagine 10 years ago, and considering the war in Syria with partially uncommon goals in the back, those relations are outstanding.
It happened not because Putin being a lunatic hawk, running around like a headless chicken, throwing Kalibres at anyone who disagrees.
Do you know what is the most bizarre thing in this whole western MSM narrative there? That it rejects logic and is obviously false.
Putin is described as a madman, a lunatic, with no manners, who does not care about the words he is giving, and a man that can't be trusted, because he is supposed to lie each time when he opens his mouth.
On the other hand, each and any sane politician or situation is proving the opposite. We have statements from the people like Berlusconi or Schroeder, that VVP is a man of his words. Everyone who is watching how he behaves can say anything but him having no manners, being a lunatic madman. Screw Silvio and Gerhard, they are corrupted clients one could say? Hey, you might be right, but just the same is saying Lukhaschenko. OK, he is a lunatic (hardly ). But just the same is saying Erdogan. Just another madman, right? al Sisi is saying just the same. Crazy guy. Assad is saying just the same. A thirsty vampire who drinks the blood of innocents, sorry, forgot that. But what about prime ministers of Japan? They are crazy, too? Mr. Abe, who described Putin as his good pale who always kept his word? Xinping? Describing Putin as his closest and dearest friend, who always stays in line with the agreements? Oh yeah, I forgot, he murdered half of China already, taking the terracotta army figures to pretend them being living Chinese. What about Mr. Modi? Who is in a very friendly relation with Putin, calling him his personal friend and trusted partner? Hmm ... How shall we call him? A religious thug! Harsh enough? Now it becomes harder ... Queen Angela .. I mean, Mrs. Chancellor Merkel ... Quite a close and good relations for 20 years I would say, ever saw them talking each other? Germany loses its position as an economic partner to China only a while back. Who is she? Hmm .. I know! A STASI sleeper! That is right! But how about chancellor Kurtz? Way too young to be a STASI agent. I know! He is young and naive, fooled by the evil Putin
Madmen's, crazy people all around. And Boris Johnson, is among the sane ones out there
So maybe ... just a little maybe ... we should consider that you can achieve more in the worldwide arena being just like Putin if witnessing the increasing role and cooperation they achieved for the last 20+ years?
Naaah ... Screw it.
Lets bomb the shit out of everybody let's close the pipes, let's throw the economic ties, arrest the foreigners as agents ... what a brilliant idea, and what a nice way to start a day.

Yet you continuously call for hardline and hawkish actions like cutting trade ties for bad behaviour toward Russia. What gives?

Not cutting anything. Treat them like customers that are not friends, because they don't like Russia and wont ever come to like Russia, because Russia is not them and they are afraid that something other than them could succeed and be successful.

Russia should shift focus to expanding trade with the rest of the world... keep supplying gas to the EU and any part of the west that wants to buy it... even the Ukraine if they want it, but don't work hard and spend money to make it cheaper for them... work hard to make it exportable beyond Russian borders and around the world.

I think we all agree that it's the West's political elites who have chosen to frame Russia as the enemy, a real life Mordor that the Men of the West need to stand against. I can't think of more than a handful of notorious forum members who would deny that.

But it is more than just the elite... if a famous American or Britain said they liked Putin they would never work again, and most of the Sheeple in the west agree and don't bother to even think about why.

Putin is no an asshole that imposes crippling sanctions, he doesn't wield gas and energy and Titanium for aircraft around the world and rocket motors as weapons against the west... he must be weak so lets just keep attacking.

I agree Putin being an asshole and reacting to the west the way the west reacts to everyone they don't have control of would not be the solution, but Russia does not need the west at all so there is no point in grovelling to them begging for titbits off their table and small mercies.

Russia does not need to follow the west, or get approval from the west, its future is not with the west because the west deals with colonies... not with equals and Russia will never be anything but a resource colony of immense proportions for international companies to rape and pillage for a century or more.

The west will always try to limit the growth and development of Russia if given the chance, so Russia should look elsewhere for other trading partners that don't want to limit Russia and in turn don't want to be limited by Russia... like China, but like many other countries... countries that have their own problems and don't want to be lectured and told what has to be done by a country they buy oil or gas or titanium from.

It's a given, and as Alamo is saying, just deal with it.

There is nothing to deal with.... Russia offered a partnership with mutual benefits and the west is not interested in anything where Russia does not dance to their tunes, so Russia will sell them stuff and might buy some stuff from them if they are allowed to, but otherwise their future is elsewhere.

Over time the west might realise its mistake... the US is going to have to sabotage trade between Asia and the EU because they don't make any money in that situation... the question is... will the EU continue to do as they are told or will they look at the billions they are missing out on and just say... hey... we are adults and countries that can make our own decisions and we don't need US troops on out territories to keep ourselves safe from imaginary threats.

They might be worth talking to then, or maybe not even then.

But trade (and cultural, social, scientific ties etc. etc. etc.) need not be rashly sacrificed by zealots for short term 'revenge'.

Nothing to do with revenge... it is like an abusive marriage... at some point the woman has to realise that when he punches you in the face and breaks teeth and cheekbones he probably does not love you like you think he does. Equally as you are breaking skin with blood everywhere and it is your wifes blood you have to wonder how you got to doing that and that maybe you need to stop what you are doing and get real help.

You certainly don't pick your chin up and think this is the way that it is and continue on like it is normal.

These sanctions the west is imposing on Russia are meant to do damage, to hurt Russia, to limit its growth and development. To financially destroy companies and businesses... return sanctions are just doing the same thing to them.... it is by no means any sort of partnership I would want to be involved with and to be honest someone should call the police.... but at country level there is no police, because in this case the abuser thinks they are the self appointed world police, but also judge jury and executioner and can dole out punishment too.

I've already stated my admiration of President Putin for his cool, calm and calculated handling of Russia's affairs. And I think that's exactly what is needed. There's no need to cut off your nose to spite your face.

He has been very tolerant of a lot of bullshit, but there are only so many times you can say lets talk, lets cooperate more, lets solve some big issues and not let a few minor disagreements get in the way of civilised relations.

It hasn't worked for 20 years and he hasn't got another 20 to waste banging his head against a brick wall.

Respond asymmetrically to your enemy's moves, and set your own time and place to do so. Russia has and continues to respond in ways advantageous to itself to Western attacks and sanctions.

All very true and it should work against a rational opponent, but western politicians think Putin is just like them... slimy and for sale... and it will just take a little more pressure.... one more round of sanctions and he will break and do as we demand... for 20 years they thought he was Yeltsen. For 20 years he hasn't been.

They are not headline grabbers or big showy stunts that the Western media circus enjoys for pushing their own propaganda. But they're clearly working as by our own admission here, Russia's global power and relevance and prestige has actually been GROWING in spite of it all!

In spite of all western efforts to break Russia...yes... perhaps another reason they fear them...

hat's what happens when you play the patient game; the quiet, smart game.

No it isn't. Russia is a huge country with a diverse range of technologies and skills and talents... most countries put under this level of pressure like Cuba, like North Korea, like Iran, like Saddams Iraq, like Gaddafis Libya, like Milosovichs Serbia.... they all get crushed like a bug... not destroyed, but also not able to renew and restore their military to a level above what they were at at the end of the cold war or last good period.

China can do it too simply because even if you cut off China from the rest of the world they have enough of an internal market to keep their economy going, plus the west is the only bunch of psychos trying to limit growth and development in other countries... Russia and China will continue to cooperate and work together... not because they are buddies, but because they both want to grow and develop and recognise the west does not permit that in a trade "partner".

I've said it before, Russia should not aspire to be America.

I agree, but there is something worse... the west wants Russia to become what the EU are to the US.

Russia should have none of that... Russia can be Russia.

As an example, I like to point to Turkey's shooting down of Russia's Su-24 in 2015. Yes even today I read childish comments how soft is Russia and their apparent incapability of responding. Yet a larger observation the situation that followed (and evident even up to today) is that ALL of Turkey's ambitions were and have since been boxed in and hamstrung. Turkey may resort to throwing tantrums every so often it feels like bitching, but in the years since the shoot-down it's Russia who's been showing them who's the real top dog and who's the lap dog. And that's WITHOUT rashly responding like for like. There are smarter ways to bring one's adversaries to heel.

You can look back at comments on this forum... there were plenty who wanted blood but that would have achieved nothing except the useless tit for tat sanctions the west and Russia are stuck in a spiral of... led by the west of course.

Putins solution to the problem led to solutions that would not have been possible with any other response.

So let the Europeans spew their bile at Russia and relish being violated by Uncle Sam.

That is what I am suggesting... let them hurl abuse at Russia without response, but when uncle sam is short of gas and stops sending it then renegotiate terms regarding NSII and the other pipelines to get a better deal... and certainly don't enter trade agreements and deals that create strings for EU politicians to pull to try to control Russia.

Nothing lasts forever and sentiments are forever shifting.

Not much has shifted in the last 20 years, and without a serious problem the EU needs Russias help for I can't see it changing much in the future either.

I live in Dunedin New Zealand. We have a large port that has what is called a disappearing gun.... coastal artillery.

It was built at great expense but was not to stop the Germans or the Japs, it was not to stop the Soviets.... it was to stop the Russians... in the 1800s in New Zealand there was a fear the Russians were coming... and the fear is still there... as irrational as it is.

Many pretend it is about communism or some such shit, but it is fundamentally racist and is not going to change... most countries have areas they look down on... in the far north we have Aucklanders... we call them Jafas...just another fkn aucklander, who very occasionally come down here and complain because it is cold and remote, and express surprise we have indoor toilets now. It is the same for any country... in Australia it is Tasmanians.... sadly it is human nature, and it wont change.

You would be a fool to expect it too, but there is money to be made in the rest of the world and when both sides want to make a good profit but not at the expense of everyone and everything, then both sides can grow and develop and prosper... it has probably been what the west has been promising the rest of the world but has never delivered so far except by mistake... like with China.

Maintaining commerce/trade and an overall transactional type of relationship actually serves Russia better than it does the EU (certainly more profitable!).

Russia having commerce and trade relationships with the EU are just strings to cut... better to trade and commerce relationships with countries around the world, and keep the westerners out of it. (russian trade, I don't mean try to cockblock the west the way they try to cockblock Russia and China and everyone else... sometimes even each other).

How refreshing to hear a sane voice ...<snip>
No matter where, and no matter the real price.

I am agreeing with everything you said, but would ask you why you think Russia should bend over backwards and work hard and spend lots of money to get cheap energy to Germany when the west is acting this way?

Sure, sell them gas and make money but the west is fucked and it hates Russia and as time goes on that is not changing at all, so Russia should give up any ideas of partnership with the west... it is simply not something the west is ready for... Russia has managed to grow more than most countries in the last 20 years while being subjected to the sort of hostile bullshit from the west that destroys smaller weaker countries... and they know this because that was the intent... break them so they do as we tell them... not working so far but just one more sanction should do it right?

I am not suggesting punishing them or attacking them or damaging them except in kind in a reciprocal way as Putin has been doing... I am suggesting the rest of the world is out there... trade with them... grow and develop with them.

It happened not because Putin being a lunatic hawk, running around like a headless chicken, throwing Kalibres at anyone who disagrees.

I support Putin and what he has done and how he deals with things, but I notice he is no longer talking about western partners and it looking east and elsewhere.

Russia needs to build up its navy and its civilian fleet and start looking past the west and trade with the rest of the world.

Lets bomb the shit out of everybody let's close the pipes, let's throw the economic ties, arrest the foreigners as agents ... what a brilliant idea, and what a nice way to start a day.

Putin could easily have sold out Russia for personal gain and glory like Yeltsen did... I think Yeltsen believed the western bullshit and believed Bill Clinton was his friend... look where that led Russia.... essentially the same place the EU is heading in its partnership with the US because the devil does not share power with anyone... at the end of the day it is US interests that are to be satisfied first or at all.

Putin puts all the worlds politicians to shame, and continues to do so, by not being emotional, by being rational, and by putting the position and situation of Russia and the Russian people first... imagine having a leader like that?

@Garry

You are having to respond to people who clearly cannot be bothered to properly read you replies and spew out BS inferences and
claims. The usual contrarian bi-modal, knee-jerk drivel about how Russia would hurt itself by not sucking NATzO anus.

I will repeat it once again: Russia should adopt a take it or leave it attitude with NATzO and U-rope. If they are not happy buying
Russian gas and oil, then they can bugger on off to another supplier. The gall of these haters to demand from Russia concessions
that serve only their interests. As if Russia is desperate for their precious business. GTFO.

Not cutting anything. Treat them like customers that are not friends, because they don't like Russia and wont ever come to like Russia, because Russia is not them and they are afraid that something other than them could succeed and be successful.

That’s exactly the direction Putin has taken actually. Sure he throws out platitudes and diplo-speak like “partners”, but look at what’s actually being done. The relationship with the West (through their own fault) is for all intents and purposes dead, except for matters that are strictly in RUSSIA’s interests. Russia has made this pretty clear to the West, who are finding themselves facing staggering blowback from their failed, short-sighted policy of trying to isolate Russia.

Russia should shift focus to expanding trade with the rest of the world... keep supplying gas to the EU and any part of the west that wants to buy it... even the Ukraine if they want it, but don't work hard and spend money to make it cheaper for them... work hard to make it exportable beyond Russian borders and around the world.

There is nothing to deal with.... Russia offered a partnership with mutual benefits and the west is not interested in anything where Russia does not dance to their tunes, so Russia will sell them stuff and might buy some stuff from them if they are allowed to, but otherwise their future is elsewhere.

NS2 is a commercial arrangement between incorporated entities. It’s a joint initiative between Gazprom and major European companies for a common cause – profit. That’s the future regarding anywhere. Russia’s Western and southern borders are battlegrounds for influence, where their own brothers are actively betraying them. Did anybody foresee this couple generations ago? Do you think things as they are now are set in stone? Great powers don’t look for “friends”, but seek to exert and manage their own interests through strategic partnerships/arrangements. Whether this turns out to be mutually beneficial depends on the nature of negotiations vis-a-vis the relative strength/weakness of the parties involved.

The west will always try to limit the growth and development of Russia if given the chance, so Russia should look elsewhere for other trading partners that don't want to limit Russia and in turn don't want to be limited by Russia... like China, but like many other countries... countries that have their own problems and don't want to be lectured and told what has to be done by a country they buy oil or gas or titanium from.

Again, what makes you think as time passes the Chinese wouldn’t want to hedge their bets on getting too close to Russia. There is already ample evidence that both countries don’t want to sacrifice too much autonomy or sovereignty. Both Presidents have personally alluded to as much. There are lots of limits to what China and Russia can and can’t do. Both for example have instituted strict cross-border trade and travel rules where it serves their respective interests.

Nothing to do with revenge... it is like an abusive marriage... at some point the woman has to realise that when he punches you in the face and breaks teeth and cheekbones he probably does not love you like you think he does.

Lol. But this is not love but geo-politics and global competition. And all things are fair in love and war my friend. One observation of mine though is how naive Russian people seem to be. They seem to have an unfortunate sense of inferiority and adoration for the West, which the Chinese do not. India on the other hand will never amount to much of a power because of an even greater adoration and worshipping of the West and its culture by its young, educated class. They’re rapidly regressing to colonial status.

That is what I am suggesting... let them hurl abuse at Russia without response, but when uncle sam is short of gas and stops sending it then renegotiate terms regarding NSII and the other pipelines to get a better deal... and certainly don't enter trade agreements and deals that create strings for EU politicians to pull to try to control Russia.

Toially in agreement. But from what I’ve been reading, again this is exactly what Russia and Gazprom are doing! Just a couple weeks ago Gazprom flipped the EU the bird when they put up for auction gas purchases through Ukraine. They were stunned when Gazprom basically told them we call the shots here as the supplier, not you the buyer, and hung up the phone.

In the end I don’t really see any disagreement among anyone here. Actually I see that not only are we on the same page, but that Putin is doing much of exactly as you and @kvs are prescribing! If you look past the polite language and diplomacy Putin uses (as you say, he’s stopped doing even that a while now and Lavrov and Ryabkov basically tells the West to suck on it), Russia has taken a very, very hard line in relation to the West.

Reading Western sources now, I get a real sense of desperation that they’ve backed themselves into a corner and ran out of any sort of leverage, short of the nuclear options like cutting Russia off from SWIFT or the internet or some other dumb idea. They have exhausted the sanctions policy to point where they’ve pushed Russia to becoming self-sufficient and independent. Now they’re frantically looking at what other options they have other than shamefully admitting failure and pulling back (as they were forced to do in Afghanistan).

Russia just has to stay cool, and not give the West any opportunity to GENUINELY blame them for anything wrong or stupid, because as of right now Western hypocrisy is being scorned more and more all over the world. Despite the propaganda, Russia isn’t the aggressor since Putin came to power and it’s the one powerful card Russia holds; the moral high ground, the standards it sets by which it will be judged in time. Just as America is now being judged by the standards it created itself over decades, and those same standards now being flung in their faces by Russia e.g. re: Kosovo and Crimea.[/quote]

Great powers don’t look for “friends”, but seek to exert and manage their own interests through strategic partnerships/arrangements.

I don't care about the west not wanting Russia as a friend and ally, it is the west that betrays its own rules and at the same time denigrates others for not having those same rules and standards.

More so the arrogance that they are the only customer in town so they can dictate terms... no body else has money they think... well they print their own so it really is not worth anything at all anyway.

Once NSII is up and running Russia should stop trying to help the west in any way... if they want to sabotage then let them and accept they don't want to trade... there are plenty of countries around the world that do want to trade but they are too far away... Russia needs to build its navy and its transport naval fleet (civilian) and start trading with the rest of the world more.

Again, what makes you think as time passes the Chinese wouldn’t want to hedge their bets on getting too close to Russia. There is already ample evidence that both countries don’t want to sacrifice too much autonomy or sovereignty.

They don't need to sacrifice any autonomy or sovereignty... they are separate countries that are not joined in any way except being next to each other geographically.

Both Presidents have personally alluded to as much. There are lots of limits to what China and Russia can and can’t do. Both for example have instituted strict cross-border trade and travel rules where it serves their respective interests.

Russia does not lecture China on what China should do in its own internal affairs and China does not lecture Russia on what Russia should do.

We buy your shit and you buy our shit and on some things we work together... like space... and in other areas we can each go it alone...

Lol. But this is not love but geo-politics and global competition.

The EU and Russia were building a gas pipeline to deliver secure safe cheap gas to Germany with no transit fees. The US and some EU countries that had nothing to do with NSII then objected and started imposing economic sanctions and political pressure on the private companies building the pipeline.

At that stage Russia should have cancelled the deal and ended the entire project and saved billions of dollars and time and sanctions.

If the Ukraine started stealing gas again then the gas would need to be shipped and the EU would pay more for their gas.

It wasn't Russias problem... there was nothing they could do to the Ukraine to stop them.

One observation of mine though is how naive Russian people seem to be.

You mean what total western businesses and companies are, not to get started on politicians.

Russia still hasn't used gas or oil supply to impose its political will on the western customers that buy it... they are clearly not interested in playing the same game with the same rules... so their is no point in continuing to play western games with western companies and western governments.

They seem to have an unfortunate sense of inferiority and adoration for the West, which the Chinese do not.

The last 30 years are helping to cure them of that... Putin was pro west... but he is clearly turning too.

If you look past the polite language and diplomacy Putin uses (as you say, he’s stopped doing even that a while now and Lavrov and Ryabkov basically tells the West to suck on it), Russia has taken a very, very hard line in relation to the West.

And the huge irony for the Putin haters is that he is the most pro west politician they had... except for the bought ones like Kasparov and Navalny.

Reading Western sources now, I get a real sense of desperation that they’ve backed themselves into a corner and ran out of any sort of leverage, short of the nuclear options like cutting Russia off from SWIFT or the internet or some other dumb idea. They have exhausted the sanctions policy to point where they’ve pushed Russia to becoming self-sufficient and independent.

But just one more sanction and he will break... it is all we need... hahahahahaaha.

Now they’re frantically looking at what other options they have other than shamefully admitting failure and pulling back (as they were forced to do in Afghanistan).

Not really... they are admitting it hasn't worked, but the result has not been any sort of revelation... there is no internal critique, no reevaluation of the situation... it is just that this hasn't worked... pull back... regroup... and try something else to force them to do as we demand because we are in charge and we make the rules and you just follow the rules.

Like I said... leave them to their own devices... look elsewhere for trade...

Russia just has to stay cool, and not give the West any opportunity to GENUINELY blame them for anything wrong or stupid, because as of right now Western hypocrisy is being scorned more and more all over the world. Despite the propaganda, Russia isn’t the aggressor since Putin came to power and it’s the one powerful card Russia holds; the moral high ground, the standards it sets by which it will be judged in time. Just as America is now being judged by the standards it created itself over decades, and those same standards now being flung in their faces by Russia e.g. re: Kosovo and Crimea.

The west is not going to grow up any time soon... Russian studies departments in western universities are going to take decades to rebuild to a point where they are not staffed with gibbering idiots kicked out of other branches of academia.

Like I said... Russia should sell stuff to the west but not really look for anything else there... the future for Russia is in other places... including Asia and including Africa and including central and south america.

GarryB wrote:
I am agreeing with everything you said, but would ask you why you think Russia should bend over backwards and work hard and spend lots of money to get cheap energy to Germany when the west is acting this way?

As I have already told you, my friend, this is a pointless discussion made only "to discuss".
No matter how many times I will repeat, that they don't sell cheap - it won't help.
This is you idee fix, fitting your agenda, and there is no power on the planet Earth able to make you change your mind.
"bend and backwards" is just another emotional idiom used to describe a usual business practice, even if you find one in existence for EU/RUS relations.
I hardly find any, probably because sitting just in the middle  
Last week is just another "bend and backward" policy in being: EU-based consortium finally closed the BRUA pipeline from Romania to Austria, with bypassed in Slovakia and Hungary. The project was supposed to be filled with an "alternative gas supply", as they described Romanian oil rigs at the Black Sea.
But as there are no "Romanian oil rigs", and won't be in the next 5 years at least, it is filled in 96% with the Russian one, pumped directly via TurkStream and it's Bulgarian bypass.
Just another Russian fail, right?
I have an exercise for you : take a piece of paper, write down all the US-sponsored and backed attempts to shoot down Russian gas/oil business with Europe. Keeping the order those used to be presented, you can follow the RU-US crisis there very easily then.
And when you will finish, take a look at the map, and try to find them?    

GarryB wrote:
Sure, sell them gas and make money but the west is fucked and it hates Russia  and as time goes on that is not changing at all, so Russia should give up any ideas of partnership with the west... it is simply not something the west is ready for... Russia has managed to grow more than most countries in the last 20 years while being subjected to the sort of hostile bullshit from the west that destroys smaller weaker countries... and they know this because that was the intent... break them so they do as we tell them... not working so far but just one more sanction should do it right?

Nothing even close, it is you who hates the west. To the level of personal obsession, I guess. All that follows is just a result of it.
First, there is no "west" as you describe it. There is no omnipotent superpower, with one will, goal and might. They all have own goals, pretending to play one team.

GarryB wrote:
I am not suggesting punishing them or attacking them or damaging them except in kind in a reciprocal way as Putin has been doing... I am suggesting the rest of the world is out there... trade with them... grow and develop with them.

That is the problem my friend: you are so obsessed with giving good advice, that hardly noticed that it is something that is running for a decade already. What makes you think that they didn't get the ideas you have, having more access to the data, much earlier?  

GarryB wrote:
I support Putin and what he has done and how he deals with things, but I notice he is no longer talking about western partners and it looking east and elsewhere.
Russia needs to build up its navy and its civilian fleet and start looking past the west and trade with the rest of the world.

Gee, thank you.
Isn't it something that they are doing for more than a two decades already?
How do you think, how much time it takes to developed LNG infrastructure on the scale of Yamal or Sakhalin, for a country that had no LNG industry at all, 20 years ago?
Even 15 years ago, there was a really serious discussion running around the business, will Russkies be able to play a role of a major LNG supplier, because they were lacking skills, technology, and know-how. All together.
And I am not talking about some shitty talking heads masturbating in politically driven titles, but a serious discussion of serious people inside this business.
What do you think, how do they managed to put their hands on both the technology and know-how?
Easy Garry, easy, take a deep breath ... one ... two ... there ... COOPERATION!!!!!
Hell yeah! Was not that bad, right?  
They were dealing with ze ivil wezt for decades, scoring multiple joint ventures, tools delivery, specialized machines, valves, turbines ... a distillation tower is something being made with technical tolerances and technology involved equal to the nuclear reactor, imagine that? They used to import them, something hard to belive this days.
Now we talk a different story, but only 15 years ago Russia was unable to produce the pipes in demanded volume and quality.
Do you know who delivered pipes for Nord Stream? It started only 15 years ago, remind you ... It was a consortium of German Europipe, Russian OMK, and Japan Sumitomo. Russians get 25% share only, unable to produce&deliver more, and still, there were rumors that couldn't do that and needed German assistance.
And who delivered pipes for NS2? Europipe at 40%, while remaining goes to Russian OMK and Chelyabynsk based Chelpipe.
Both NS1 and NS2 involved the subsidiary from GER, FR, NL, AU ...
It is EU driven project.
Do you realize how do your comments about "stopping", "bending", "closing" etc looks like from the real perspective?

GarryB wrote:
Putin could easily have sold out Russia for personal gain and glory like Yeltsen did... I think Yeltsen believed the western bullshit and believed Bill Clinton was his friend... look where that led Russia.... essentially the same place the EU is heading in its partnership with the US because the devil does not share power with anyone... at the end of the day it is US interests that are to be satisfied first or at all.
Putin puts all the worlds politicians to shame, and continues to do so, by not being emotional, by being rational, and by putting the position and situation of Russia and the Russian people first... imagine having a leader like that?

I share your opinion, this childish naive approach was there even at the beginning of Putin's rule. There is a serious question, was it done by purpose, as Russia was too weak to do anything else.
But never do the mistake of combining the European politics with European business. EU politicians rule the business only as long, as the business allows them to pretend that.

By the way, gas hist $540/tqm ... Soon the reins will be pulled

Ooooh, the prices are up, lets pump more

MOSCOW, August 10. /TASS/. Gas pumping via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline increased by more than 20% early on Tuesday amid the resumption of the work of Gazprom’s Urengoy condensate pre-transportation preparation plant in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area after an accident, according to data provided by the European gas transport operator Gascade.

Gas pumping via Yamal-Europe was up to around 1.83 mln cubic meters per hour from 07:00 to 8:00 am Moscow time compared to 1.5 mln cubic meters per hour on the previous day and Tuesday night, according to Gascade.

Earlier reports said that Gazprom resumed feedstock supply to the Urengoy condensate pre-transportation preparation plant after August 5 accident. Gazprom’s condensate stabilization plant has also resumed accepting feedstock from the Urengoy plant and it is expected to start shipments of products to consumers shortly.

On August 5, a fire broke out at the condensate pre-transportation preparation plant near Novy Urengoy in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area, which was localized on the following day, with no casualties.

The plant, owned by Gazprom Pererabotka, is one of the main producers of high-quality petroleum derivatives in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area.

Following the accident at the plant gas pumping via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline dropped more than two-fold.

We should remember, that EU storages at the moment have about 10% of the reserve left.
I can't remember such levels ever since
Let the dogs bark at NS2
Can't wait to see how the PGNiG call to be a judge in the certification process will end with the German federal body

That is the problem my friend: you are so obsessed with giving good advice, that hardly noticed that it is something that is running for a decade already. What makes you think that they didn't get the ideas you have, having more access to the data, much earlier?

Glad you are pointing out I am right but have you fully thought through the consequences?

It is EU driven project.

Of course and that is your problem... you don't think Russia can do anything without Europe... seems to me they are getting sick and tired of dealing with the EU especially as most of it comes via Washington...

Do you realize how do your comments about "stopping", "bending", "closing" etc looks like from the real perspective?

From a European perspective... perhaps a bit of shame at how much of a bunch of assholes you guys are to countries working to complete something for your benefit... and at the same time fear because the cost of living might go up if you have to pay for freedom gas like your masters in the US want you to buy...

I share your opinion, this childish naive approach was there even at the beginning of Putin's rule. There is a serious question, was it done by purpose, as Russia was too weak to do anything else.

Funny you call humane and civilised childish... truth and justice used to be western values too... Americans claimed them for themselves in fact... openly saying that truth and justice were the American way...

Perhaps Putin is reacting to western deceit and parlour games of theft and abuse, and setting a standard that the west should perhaps start to think about living up to.

Russia was never too weak to do the right thing, as Putin showed... he inherited what Yeltsen left him and that was about as weak as Russia has been for a long time... so his childish naive approach seems to have resulted in something the west never expected.

But never do the mistake of combining the European politics with European business. EU politicians rule the business only as long, as the business allows them to pretend that.

There is no morality or ethics in either group of vipers.

By the way, gas hist $540/tqm ... Soon the reins will be pulled

After all we have talked about... do you honestly think the Russians are now going to give you super cheap gas?

The way you suggest the teeth will come out and the EU will get its way makes you sound like Aristide... which sadly really...

Ooooh, the prices are up, lets pump more

They said they had an accident... would that not explain a reduction in gas supply?

Does there need to be another explanation?

Can't wait to see how the PGNiG call to be a judge in the certification process will end with the German federal body

Even if the German body was bullied or threatened into accepting their input, the Russians would not agree.

The prices are high now but they will for sure be drilled down to under $40 per tcm soon enough. U-rope does not want
long term contracts with "blackmailer" Gazprom, it wants a spot pricing racket. Gazprom is letting U-rope know that
it will not bend over but that will not stop U-rope from trying to screw Russia over.

Malicious customers need to shop elsewhere.