Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #3

Autodestruct wrote:

For a little while, yes.  How much maintenance do you think is being done on those very old pipelines?  The Russians have been extending contracts on them to get the last bit of existing life out of them, but they've been running a "retire in place" plan for years now.  There have been and will be no major overhauls.
I think Russia can afford to wait Germany out here.  The need is coming, and it will be undeniable.

Well, yes and no ...
Take a look at the map of the whole system, including the gas fields.
First of all, transit via Ukraine and Poland is performed by different pipes. That is Jamal for Poland and Brotherhood for Ukr. Both start at different locations&different gas fields, for Brotherhood that would be Zapoliarnoje, while for Jamal it is Jamal Penisula, in general, with several gas fields out there.
Problem is, that Zapoliarnoje is one of the most lucrative for Gazprom, well invested, with already existing infrastructure.
https://www.gazprom.com/projects/zapolyarnoye/
There is a bypass linking the Brotherhood with Yamal that can be used to redirect the flow from Ukraine, still, it would be limited by Jamal's own capacity, and it will go via Belarus and Poland anyway.
There is another bypass leading to TurkStream, but as long as there is only one pipe (they discuss TurkStream2 for a few years already), this route is fully booked and has no space for pumping huge volumes of gas, as Zapolarnoje is set for 130 bln m3 a year ...
There is an active project to make another bypass of the Brotherhood, and connect it with Nord Stream infrastructure, but that exists only as a planned one.
So there is no physical way for Russia to operate one of its biggest&best developed gas fields, without pumping it via Ukraine.
But guess what? It is irrelevant.
The contract for a gas transit in a total volume of 225bcm till 2024 was signed anyway, back in 2019.
The whole yapping is not about cutting the gas transit, but about the volume of it.
That gives Gazprom 3 years to sort things out, and in 3 years, everything can happen.
Possible scenarios are :
1. putting NS2 into operation, and constructing a Brotherhood bypass leading to Wyborg from Grijazowiec,
2. redirecting the Zapolarnoje flow to a newly constructed LNG infrastructure on Jamal, but that would require doubling of it's production volume, constructing new pipelines of about same length as the bypass to NS,
3. constructing TurkStream 2
4. constructing a bypass connecting the Jamal area gaz fields with Power of Siberia pipe.
If you ask me, the last one makes the biggest leverage for Russia, as it can assure the product for pipes leading to India, Bangladesh and Pakistan via Myanmar. If we consider another bypass for Sachalin located fields, from Chabrowsk to Swobodny, the whole cluster created would be extremely redundant and allow to redirect the export at any moment, to any customer.

Germany doesn't need Nord Stream II. Russia will deliver all the gas needed via Ukraine and Poland anyway.

Germany was the main driving force behind NSII being built because they knew their use of gas in the future will increase, and the risk of Kiev stealing gas is a serious issue... not to mention no transit fees for NSII make it the cheapest gas they can get anywhere.

For a little while, yes. How much maintenance do you think is being done on those very old pipelines?

Indeed... Zelensky has already said all the transit fees go to their military, and not to maintenance, so when they fail they will have to sort out some other way of sending the gas required...

Russia wont care how it gets there, but Europe will probably notice how much extra they have to pay for the different solutions... with NSII being far and away the cheapest option all along.

... leave the last word to Pepe Escobar... Sue them for 50 billion Euros plus and sell the gas to China... who does not screw Russia around or steal gas or make up rules about who can own the pipes and the content etc etc...

kvs wrote:
The lunatics (in this case comprador ones) have taken over the EU asylum.    The schizophrenic delusions are off the scale.
Where do these retards get their facts from?   They can consult the World Bank about the state of Russia's economy.  But
that is clearly not something their defective brains can do.

Dude, she is just a hostage of her own political backstage.
Watch how they will burn the cowshit pancakes, soon

ALAMO wrote:

kvs wrote:
The lunatics (in this case comprador ones) have taken over the EU asylum.    The schizophrenic delusions are off the scale.
Where do these retards get their facts from?   They can consult the World Bank about the state of Russia's economy.  But
that is clearly not something their defective brains can do.

Dude, she is just a hostage of her own political backstage.
Watch how they will burn the cowshit pancakes, soon

Nothing more dangerous than a 50ish idealist finally reaching a position of power without having significant relevant experience.

She will be dealing with Lavrov, her oppo

Maybe he will explain to her, how to put notes on a table, not allowing the journos to make a blink at them, as WWP instructed Zelenski
Besides, I see you are strongly devoted to the materials that some alcoholic is making while sitting in his closet.
Not sure if more interesting or disturbing
We had just the same "expert" here, his name is Max-Kolonko.
Broadcasting from his closet in the US, a pure medical example of going into the darkness of madness, from a position of being one of the main polish media correspondents in the US.
The last time I have checked his materials, he was singing drunken songs and yelling the presidential decrees, because he announced himself as a legitimate president of Poland
Pure madness
Maybe they share the closet, who knows!

Meanwhile, in a part of the World where real deals are done to the benefit of both sides. That's a decent amount of oil in a year.

Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

Russia last week announced a major new energy cooperation deal with India that threatens the very core of the U.S.’s fightback strategy against Beijing’s and Moscow’s expansionism in the Middle East and beyond. The main hydrocarbons deal will be for Russia, via oil giant Rosneft, to supply almost 15 million barrels of crude to Indian Oil, by the end of 2022. Given the massive geopolitical ramifications of any sizeable oil deal, it was entirely legitimate for Igor Sechin, Rosneft chief executive officer and close friend of Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to say of the deal that:

“The signing of a new oil supply contract confirms the strategic nature of the long-term partnership between Rosneft and Indian Oil.”

The deal takes on even more significance as it was just one part of 28 investment deals between Russia and India signed during the very recent visit of Putin himself to Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. These covered a broad range of subjects, including not just oil, gas, and petrochemicals, steel, and shipbuilding, but also military matters. The opportunities for bleed-through military elements to appear in the oil and gas projects agreed between Russia and India are bad enough from the U.S. perspective. Rosneft’s oil deliveries will be shipped through the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, with off-loading facilities in India to be built out when required. Putin highlighted:

“Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to increasing Russian crude oil production under long-term contracts at preferential prices and increasing LNG [liquefied natural gas] imports to India with the possible use of the Northern Sea Route for energy supplies.”

Specifically, added Modi:

“We have set a target of US$30 billion in trade and US$50 billion in investment by 2025.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putins-coup-india-will-shock-us

I have a crazy idea lads

What IF this whole Die Gruene is just a US asset?

Sounds strange, but they root from the anti-nuclear movements, at least some part of them.
And those used to be an obvious foreign agent since the 60s, first the SU, and starting from the reunification of Germany - a US one.
With a clear goal to dump the European atomic energy down the toilet.

Weird thinking for weird times

The problem for the EU is that buying gas on the spot market will entail them waiting for the price to drop very low... but the spot market is like an auction... when the price gets too low the Russians can just choose to not sell at those prices.

The EU has no contract so Russia is not obliged to sell no matter what the price is.

par far wrote:Is it fair to say, as Europe's industries go down the toilet, it will benefit China because they will move production to China.

Not just China. In fact the whole of Asia is going to be far more profitable for industrial production, not just because of lower labour costs, but now also lower energy costs looking at the way things are going

flamming_python wrote:

par far wrote:Is it fair to say, as Europe's industries go down the toilet, it will benefit China because they will move production to China.

Not just China. In fact the whole of Asia is going to be far more profitable for industrial production, not just because of lower labour costs, but now also lower energy costs looking at the way things are going

Gee ...
Still living the myth of "lower labor cost" there?
How charming
I will tell you a secret, so please get closer, and don't tell that anyone!
My friends in Tiencin and Shanghai are buying flats costing double my home.
When I was doing due diligence with one of my buddies who has a furniture factory, specializing in kitchen cabinets, it turned out to be a dead end.
Wonder why?
Because in China, a regular cost of kitchen cabinets they are buying is about $12000.
Twelve grand.
If you just stand up in front of a new build apartment house in coastal China, it is +/- 1000 flats, and you can't buy a henhouse there, not having $300k.
Low labor cost
You are fuckin'kidding