The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1379377779809075202

BREAKING: #Ukraine president urges #NATO to speed up country's membership plan, says signal needs to be sent to #Russia as tensions rise - AFP

The main goal of the war in Donbass is not the return of the region

Another "autumn aggravation" is observed in Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively pulling into the Donbass, as well as to the border of the Russian Crimea. The likelihood of them carrying out provocations or even a full-scale attack on the DPR and LPR is extremely high. But why is Kiev puzzled by an attempt at military revenge for the defeat of 2014 right now?

The most popular point of view is that President Volodymyr Zelensky, who turned out to be by no means "Goloborodko" and therefore rapidly lost his ratings, was inspired by Azerbaijan's "Karabakh" experience and decided to gain popularity at the expense of "small and victorious". Also in favor of this version is the coming to power in the United States of the Democratic Party, which is considered the main inspirer and organizer of the Ukrainian Maidan in 2014. For the current American President Joe Biden, 11 Bankova Street, which in Kiev is, in fact, a personal overseas working office. However, if you dig a little deeper, it almost always turns out that the economy is behind politics . , and Ukrainians and Russians will kill each other for who will control financial flows in foreign currency.

As you know, after the Maidan, the Kremlin relied on the construction of two bypass pipelines, the Turkish Stream and Nord Stream-2. It was assumed that after putting them into operation, Gazprom will be able to finally get rid of its dependence on the Ukrainian gas transportation system once and for all. With the expectation that Nord Stream 2 will start working in early 2021, the Russian gas monopoly signed a transit agreement with Kiev for a period of 5 years. Last year, Gazprom pumped 65 billion cubic meters of gas through Nezalezhnaya, and this and the next three will have to - 40 billion cubic meters, respectively. We will return to this agreement in more detail a little later.

So, what do we have at the moment. Turkish Stream consists of two lines, through which up to 31.5 billion cubic meters of gas must be pumped per year. The first is designed to meet the domestic needs of Turkey itself, and the second - for transit further to the countries of South-Eastern Europe. On January 1, 2021, the Balkan Stream, a continuation of the Turkish Stream, leading to Bulgaria and Serbia, was put into operation. Belgrade, friendly to Moscow, began to receive Russian gas bypassing Ukraine. Soon, when the pipeline is extended further, Gazprom is to begin deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia. And for Kiev it is extremely dangerous, as noted by the head of the "Operator of GTS of Ukraine" Serhiy Makogon:

After the launch of the Turkish Stream, transit to Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria was completely transferred from Ukraine to new gas pipelines. And from April 1, gas supply to Romania is fully provided by Bulgaria through the "Turkish Stream". Currently, transit is carried out only for consumers from Moldova. If the construction of the "Turkish Stream" through Bulgaria and Serbia is completed, Gazprom will transfer through it and transit to Hungary.

The official said that for Independent as a transit country, this means a loss of 10 to 12 billion cubic meters of gas per year. All in all, 17.75 billion cubic meters can be pumped annually through the second string of the Turkish Stream to the countries of South-Eastern Europe, plus Ankara will choose as much gas as it needs. Therefore, the aforementioned Sergei Makogon stated in plain text that it is extremely important for Ukraine to prevent the completion of Nord Stream 2. As a matter of fact, this is the main reason for the current "spring exacerbation".

It should be reminded that up to 55 billion cubic meters of gas can be pumped through Nord Stream 2 a year. He alone is able to compensate for the 40 billion that Gazprom pledged to pump until 2024. True, the amendments to the EU's Third Energy Package were forced to leave one of its lines empty, artificially reducing the pipeline's throughput capacity by half, to 27.5 billion cubic meters. But even this, together with the transit line of the Turkish Stream, would have been enough for the domestic monopolist to fulfill its obligations on deliveries to Europe, which are now going through Ukraine.

This means that if at the moment Turkish Stream and Nord Stream 2 were fully completed and put into operation, Russia could do without Kiev's services. And now we return to the issue of the already existing 5-year transit agreement with Nezalezhnaya. Is it possible to refuse it at all by a willful decision and not execute it? Alas, it won't work that easily. The contract was concluded in accordance with the European principle of "take or pay", that is, "Gazprom" will have to pay Kiev the agreed $ 7 billion for these 5 years in any case. It will not work to get out, Ukraine will undoubtedly be able to recover them through a European court.

If Moscow had both bypass pipelines in operation today, it could have redirected "Ukrainian volumes" to them, paying Kiev what was stipulated in the contract, and pursuing a tougher policy towards Kiev. Theoretically, one could seriously speculate about some kind of forceful solution to the problem. But that is precisely why Ukraine, or rather the United States behind it, is now playing ahead of the curve. Only 5% of its total length remains to be laid along Nord Stream 2, then it will still need to be certified somehow. Provided that Germany favors this energy project, Berlin could try again to knock out for it another exception from the norms of the Third Energy Package in order to completely fill both of its lines with gas. However, all this will go to pieces in the event of a full-scale war in the East of Ukraine.

If Russian troops officially appear on the territory of Donbass, which are now demonstratively pulling towards the border, and begin to "iron" the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kiev will declare aggression from Moscow and provide evidence, and Washington and Brussels will support it. Another package of anti-Russian sanctions will be introduced, which will either completely block Nord Stream 2, and at the same time the Balkan Stream, or make their work impossible in normal mode. The United States will get its hands on an instrument of forced "shutdown" of Russian gas pipelines in Europe, taking control of our exports. Such gloomy prospects are looming.

https://pll4mi3fskkynekzvxxr6u4ery--topcor-ru.translate.goog/19367-glavnaja-cel-vojny-na-donbasse-kroetsja-ne-v-vozvraschenii-regiona.html

Spring Review

Military observer Anton Lavrov - about loud statements by Kiev about Donbass and the real balance of forces

The intensity of artillery firefights in Donbass has almost returned to the level before the last truce. Kiev is pulling up additional troops to the conflict zone, and the leader of the DPR Denis Pushilin does not exclude the start of a full-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU). Are the Ukrainian authorities, after six years of military construction, really ready to implement the scenario of forceful return of territories?

On paper, the balance of power between the Ukrainian army and the "people's militias" of the unrecognized republics has not changed much and looks balanced. The sides are almost equal in the number of heavy armored vehicles, guns and multiple launch rocket launchers. They have seven hundred tanks alone. The DPR and LPR are seriously inferior to the enemy only in terms of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, which is not critically important for local conditions.

Could become the most serious trump card of Ukraine and its Air Force. But they showed themselves very poorly in the hostilities of 2014-2015. Obsolete helicopters proved to be extremely vulnerable when used during the day. The aircraft could not deliver accurate bomb strikes, and when attempting to attack, they immediately suffered losses from the enemy's air defense.

Over the past years, the situation with the Ukrainian Air Force has not fundamentally changed. Modernization projects did not increase the capabilities of aviation, which was completely inherited from the USSR. They only allowed to keep it flying. Dreams of purchasing imported equipment remained fruitless.

The LPR republics have no aviation at all. But the short-range air defense systems seen at their disposal are quite enough to repel the current Ukrainian Air Force.

Ukraine has made more progress only in drones. In addition to reconnaissance vehicles, in 2019, the Ukrainian Armed Forces acquired six Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drums. This is a really effective weapon, but not enough to seriously change the balance of power. The acquisition of several dozen more such drones is still only in the plans.

Rare blotches of modern imported weapons, be it Bayraktars or the American Javelin anti-tank systems, should not show off. The overwhelming majority of enemy vehicles correspond, or even inferior to the level of the late USSR.

The main gap in the balance of power lies not with tanks and guns, but with the number of fighters. The unrecognized republics are radically inferior to their adversary, which is not surprising given the demographics. The permanent population of the DPR and LPR, according to their own calculations, does not even reach 4 million people. In total, they planned to form an army of 100 thousand people, but could not achieve this goal. The military intelligence of Ukraine estimates the combined forces of the enemy at approximately 35 thousand people. The real figure, apparently, is only slightly higher.

They are opposed by a 200,000-strong Ukrainian regular army, staffed mainly by contract soldiers. The 50,000th National Guard complements them. This structure was originally created as a counterinsurgency force for operations in the rebellious regions. They will certainly be involved in the "return of constitutional order" on the territory of the LPR.

Obviously, the mobilization capabilities of Ukraine allow it to put more reservists under arms and make up for even very sensitive losses with them. "People's militia" are deprived of such an advantage. In the event of a radical aggravation of the situation, they will undoubtedly replenish with many volunteers again. But they will still have to fight in the minority.

On the side of the defenders will be the dense urban development of the republics and their capitals. Practice shows that it allows stubborn and well-motivated defenders to successfully deter even an enemy that is many times superior in numbers and firepower.

On the example of Syria and Iraq, one can see what the attempts of technically and tactically outdated armies to storm big cities lead to. The battles for Aleppo, the suburbs of Damascus, Mosul and Raqqa turned into months of bloody meat grinders. Without high-tech assistance from Russia and the United States, it would be problematic to take them at all.

Despite all the transformations, the Armed Forces are still not very modern armies. On their own, they are unable to quickly occupy Donetsk or Lugansk. Any offensive there, even against a numerically inferior enemy, will result in protracted urban battles, in which it will be possible to win only at the cost of great sacrifices and tremendous destruction. Neither the world community nor Russia will remain indifferent to such a humanitarian catastrophe. By political and other means, Kiev will be forced to sit down at the negotiating table again.

After 2015, it was not peace agreements or national pacifism that stopped Ukraine from trying to resolve the issue of “separate areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions” by military means, but a clear awareness of the impossibility of achieving victory at an affordable price. The military and political leadership of the country had no reason to suddenly and radically revise this assessment. Therefore, one should not expect that, despite all the demonstrative maneuvers, Kiev will really move its troops forward this spring. They remain only elements of a great political game on the eve of major negotiations of the Normandy Four.

The author is a military columnist for Izvestia

https://x2mwth3k7475ygasenjtev34ea--iz-ru.translate.goog/1146954/anton-lavrov/vesennee-obozrenie

With tensions rising in Donbass, Ukraine pulls out of Minsk peace talks: Kiev refuses to meet Russia & OSCE in Belarusian capital

The Ukrainian delegation to peace talks on settling the conflict in Donbass will refuse to attend any discussions if they continue to be held in Minsk. Kiev accused Belarus of “hostile rhetoric” and being “influenced” by Russia.

The Trilateral Contact Group is made up of Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and in September 2014, representatives from all three parties signed the Minsk Protocol, an agreement to end the Donbass war. Now, with worries that fighting may flare up again, there have been proposals to head back to the Belarusian capital for further talks.
Since Zelensky became Ukrainian president, discussions on peace in war-torn Donbass haven’t advanced ‘one iota,’ laments Kremlin READ MORE: Since Zelensky became Ukrainian president, discussions on peace in war-torn Donbass haven’t advanced ‘one iota,’ laments Kremlin

According to Kiev's deputy prime minister, Alexey Reznikov, the Ukrainian side will refuse to attend. “We said that we will not take part in the meetings of the Trilateral Contact Group if the Covid-19 quarantine suddenly ends and it is proposed to continue consultations in Minsk,” he explained on Monday. “To hold talks in real life, we will have to look for another country, another city.”

This is because Belarus is “under the influence” of the Kremlin, and Kiev has lost confidence in its northern neighbor, he said. As things stand, due to Covid-19, discussions between the three parties take place via videoconference. Before the pandemic, they met face-to-face in the Belarusian capital.

Reznikov’s assertion that Kiev will no longer go to Minsk follows attempts by other Ukrainian officials to move discussions to another country. Last summer, Ukraine’s former president Leonid Kravchuk, who now serves on the Donbass negotiation team, revealed that he tried to move talks from Minsk to Sweden.

Moscow warns of ‘measures’ against any Western troop deployment in Ukraine, as Kiev cites guarantees of US support in a conflict

In response, the Russian Foreign Ministry then noted that “the key to success in settling the Ukrainian conflict is not in the change of negotiating venues or formats,” but simply the political will of all parties.
Also on rt.com Moscow holds emergency talks with US over fighting in Donbass as Ukraine says NATO exercises will train troops for war with Russia

The conflict is taking place in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine, collectively known as Donbass, where a civil war has raged for almost seven years. Separatists now control large swathes of land and have declared themselves to be independent of Kiev. While Russia does not recognize these breakaway states, Ukraine accuses the Kremlin of supporting them.

The situation has escalated in recent days. The OSCE has noted a significant increase in the number of ceasefire violations. Reports have indicated a build-up of military equipment on the Russian side of the Ukrainian border, leading to the German Foreign Office calling for “all sides to show restraint and work towards the immediate de-escalation of tensions.”

https://www.rt.com/russia/520240-minsk-peace-talks-kiev-participation-refusal/

franco wrote:Spring Review

Military observer Anton Lavrov - about loud statements by Kiev about Donbass and the real balance of forces

The intensity of artillery firefights in Donbass has almost returned to the level before the last truce. Kiev is pulling up additional troops to the conflict zone, and the leader of the DPR Denis Pushilin does not exclude the start of a full-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU). Are the Ukrainian authorities, after six years of military construction, really ready to implement the scenario of forceful return of territories?

On paper, the balance of power between the Ukrainian army and the "people's militias" of the unrecognized republics has not changed much and looks balanced. The sides are almost equal in the number of heavy armored vehicles, guns and multiple launch rocket launchers. They have seven hundred tanks alone. The DPR and LPR are seriously inferior to the enemy only in terms of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, which is not critically important for local conditions.

Could become the most serious trump card of Ukraine and its Air Force. But they showed themselves very poorly in the hostilities of 2014-2015. Obsolete helicopters proved to be extremely vulnerable when used during the day. The aircraft could not deliver accurate bomb strikes, and when attempting to attack, they immediately suffered losses from the enemy's air defense.

Over the past years, the situation with the Ukrainian Air Force has not fundamentally changed. Modernization projects did not increase the capabilities of aviation, which was completely inherited from the USSR. They only allowed to keep it flying. Dreams of purchasing imported equipment remained fruitless.

The LPR republics have no aviation at all. But the short-range air defense systems seen at their disposal are quite enough to repel the current Ukrainian Air Force.

Ukraine has made more progress only in drones. In addition to reconnaissance vehicles, in 2019, the Ukrainian Armed Forces acquired six Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drums. This is a really effective weapon, but not enough to seriously change the balance of power. The acquisition of several dozen more such drones is still only in the plans.

Rare blotches of modern imported weapons, be it Bayraktars or the American Javelin anti-tank systems, should not show off. The overwhelming majority of enemy vehicles correspond, or even inferior to the level of the late USSR.

The main gap in the balance of power lies not with tanks and guns, but with the number of fighters. The unrecognized republics are radically inferior to their adversary, which is not surprising given the demographics. The permanent population of the DPR and LPR, according to their own calculations, does not even reach 4 million people. In total, they planned to form an army of 100 thousand people, but could not achieve this goal. The military intelligence of Ukraine estimates the combined forces of the enemy at approximately 35 thousand people. The real figure, apparently, is only slightly higher.

They are opposed by a 200,000-strong Ukrainian regular army, staffed mainly by contract soldiers. The 50,000th National Guard complements them. This structure was originally created as a counterinsurgency force for operations in the rebellious regions. They will certainly be involved in the "return of constitutional order" on the territory of the LPR.

Obviously, the mobilization capabilities of Ukraine allow it to put more reservists under arms and make up for even very sensitive losses with them. "People's militia" are deprived of such an advantage. In the event of a radical aggravation of the situation, they will undoubtedly replenish with many volunteers again. But they will still have to fight in the minority.

On the side of the defenders will be the dense urban development of the republics and their capitals. Practice shows that it allows stubborn and well-motivated defenders to successfully deter even an enemy that is many times superior in numbers and firepower.

On the example of Syria and Iraq, one can see what the attempts of technically and tactically outdated armies to storm big cities lead to. The battles for Aleppo, the suburbs of Damascus, Mosul and Raqqa turned into months of bloody meat grinders. Without high-tech assistance from Russia and the United States, it would be problematic to take them at all.

Despite all the transformations, the Armed Forces are still not very modern armies. On their own, they are unable to quickly occupy Donetsk or Lugansk. Any offensive there, even against a numerically inferior enemy, will result in protracted urban battles, in which it will be possible to win only at the cost of great sacrifices and tremendous destruction. Neither the world community nor Russia will remain indifferent to such a humanitarian catastrophe. By political and other means, Kiev will be forced to sit down at the negotiating table again.

After 2015, it was not peace agreements or national pacifism that stopped Ukraine from trying to resolve the issue of “separate areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions” by military means, but a clear awareness of the impossibility of achieving victory at an affordable price. The military and political leadership of the country had no reason to suddenly and radically revise this assessment. Therefore, one should not expect that, despite all the demonstrative maneuvers, Kiev will really move its troops forward this spring. They remain only elements of a great political game on the eve of major negotiations of the Normandy Four.

The author is a military columnist for Izvestia

https://x2mwth3k7475ygasenjtev34ea--iz-ru.translate.goog/1146954/anton-lavrov/vesennee-obozrenie

pretty good article about those 2 armies but i think donbass fighters should know how to deal with turkish drones they could do them some damage....

Pulling out of Minsk is war. Period. Only a matter of when

Backman wrote:Pulling out of Minsk is war. Period. Only a matter of when

I thought that the Ukrainians wanted to pull out of Minsk as a location for the talks as Belarus was a Russian lackey.

JohninMK wrote:

Backman wrote:Pulling out of Minsk is war. Period. Only a matter of when

I thought that the Ukrainians wanted to pull out of Minsk as a location for the talks as Belarus was a Russian lackey.

That's the excuse. Why did they agree to it in the first place then and stay in for 7 years ? Why did they arm the front for the last 3 weeks and then wait till now ?

Ukraine has rung the bell. Only RT is reporting it so far. I posted about it on an anti Russian forum and I wanted a non Russian link. But so far there is none. They don't want to report it because it so obviously shows that Ukraine is the instigator.

Backman wrote:Pulling out of Minsk is war. Period. Only a matter of when

those stupid Nazi brainwashed idiots really think US army will be there when shit happens....if russia attacks those idiots they will get what they deserve....and USA won't do shit about it...

Yugo90 wrote:

Backman wrote:Pulling out of Minsk is war. Period. Only a matter of when

those stupid Nazi brainwashed idiots really think US army will be there when shit happens....if russia attacks those idiots they will get what they deserve....and USA won't do shit about it...

They're under no illusions

They're a comprodor elite. They fulfill the wishes of the people who installed them and keep them into power. It's very much against the interests of those people to see Nord Stream 2 finished

Moreover they realize their own days are numbered if Nord Stream 2 is finished. Ukrainian finances will dry up and ultimately they will be overthrown by their own people, sooner or later, will be blamed for every sin, and so on.

As for the Donbass conflict they're under no illusions that Russia will intervene and will maul all their forces. But they don't care how many they lose. They will get to portray themselves as the victims and invite greater NATO forces afterwards to keep hold on power, control the narrative, and of course scuttle the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Yugo90 wrote:
pretty good article about those 2 armies but i think donbass fighters should know how to deal with turkish drones they could do them some damage....

Novorossiya has suicide drones of their own, they can be used to attack those Turkish Buyfucktard drones.

flamming_python wrote:

Yugo90 wrote:

Backman wrote:Pulling out of Minsk is war. Period. Only a matter of when

those stupid Nazi brainwashed idiots really think US army will be there when shit happens....if russia attacks those idiots they will get what they deserve....and USA won't do shit about it...

They're under no illusions

They're a comprodor elite. They fulfill the wishes of the people who installed them and keep them into power. It's very much against the interests of those people to see Nord Stream 2 finished

Moreover they realize their own days are numbered if Nord Stream 2 is finished. Ukrainian finances will dry up and ultimately they will be overthrown by their own people, sooner or later, will be blamed for every sin, and so on.

As for the Donbass conflict they're under no illusions that Russia will intervene and will maul all their forces. But they don't care how many they lose. They will get to portray themselves as the victims and invite greater NATO forces afterwards to keep hold on power, control the narrative, and of course scuttle the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

this is one thing that I do not understand. We were buying gas from the Soviet Union during the cold war, why should we care about what happen in the Ukraine?

I know that our EU politicians are only whores that make the interest of the American elites (of course not the interest of the American people, but those are even more detached from reality than the people living in the old continent (except perhaps the Polish)), but it starts to become difficult to justify the continued antirussian policies that are damaging our own economies (and I am talking for my country of birth (Italy) and my country of residence (Germany). I would be quite annoyed if my bills would skyrocket because we decided to shoot ourself in the foot and block the Nord Stream 2 only to please the Americans. Especially in Germany it would be difficult to say that it is done to support a country (the Ukraine) where paramilitary forces with pro Nazi views and Nazi simbolism have a large control of the internal policies (even if supported by a minority of the populations) and are hoping to perform ethnic cleansing of the pro Russian population (that have been called Untermenschen also from mainstream politicians)...

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Yugo90 wrote:

Backman wrote:Pulling out of Minsk is war. Period. Only a matter of when

those stupid Nazi brainwashed idiots really think US army will be there when shit happens....if russia attacks those idiots they will get what they deserve....and USA won't do shit about it...

They're under no illusions

They're a comprodor elite. They fulfill the wishes of the people who installed them and keep them into power. It's very much against the interests of those people to see Nord Stream 2 finished

Moreover they realize their own days are numbered if Nord Stream 2 is finished. Ukrainian finances will dry up and ultimately they will be overthrown by their own people, sooner or later, will be blamed for every sin, and so on.

As for the Donbass conflict they're under no illusions that Russia will intervene and will maul all their forces. But they don't care how many they lose. They will get to portray themselves as the victims and invite greater NATO forces afterwards to keep hold on power, control the narrative, and of course scuttle the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

this is one thing that I do not understand. We were buying gas from the Soviet Union during the cold war, why should we care about what happen in the Ukraine?

I know that our EU politicians are only whores that make the interest of the American elites (of course not the interest of the American people, but those are even more detached from reality than the people living in the old continent (except perhaps the Polish)), but it starts to become difficult to justify the continued antirussian policies that are damaging our own economies (and I am talking for my country of birth (Italy) and my country of residence (Germany). I would be quite annoyed if my bills would skyrocket because we decided to shoot ourself in the foot and block the Nord Stream 2 only to please the Americans. Especially in Germany it would be difficult to say that it is done to support a country (the Ukraine) where paramilitary forces with pro Nazi views and Nazi simbolism have a large control of the internal policies (even if supported by a minority of the populations) and are hoping to perform ethnic cleansing of the pro Russian population (that have been called Untermenschen also from mainstream politicians)...

Yeah well. That's the world we live in

I have a question for all people on this forum. If we put aside whether there will be a war in Donbass or not, it looks like NATO will conduct some "training" or whatever with Ukrainian troops (Kossack  mace) later this year. Considering Kiev's appeals to NATO to allow Ukraine to join immediately that organisation, what if NATO (especially US troops) decide to stay there, even after exercises? What Russia will/can do in that case?

littlerabbit wrote:I have a question for all people on this forum. If we put aside whether there will be a war in Donbass or not, it looks like NATO will conduct some "training" or whatever with Ukrainian troops (Kossack  mace) later this year. Considering Kiev's appeals to NATO to allow Ukraine to join immediately that organisation, what if NATO (especially US troops) decide to stay there, even after exercises? What Russia will/can do in that case?

Your question is if US troops stay in Ukraine what can Russia do? correct?.

I'll answer the NATO question to.

1. If NATO decides to let Ukraine and Ukraine goes for it in nothing Russia can do aside from invading I guess before they are official sworn in, I suppose they could try and coup the Ukraine government but with how anti russian Kiev is that won't happen.

2. Ukraine is a sovereign nation so if it decides to permit US troops to stay in Ukraine for good Russia again cannot do anything about that, as it has no say what two countries do, just like if china put troops on the russian border, no one could officially do anything about that but apply pressure which amounts to nothing.

Busy day. There seems to be far too much effort being expended for everyone to turn round and go home.

You gotta love people's severe long-term memory loss.

"If the Ukrainian military attacks, only a Russian military invasion could save the Donbass!!!1!!!!1!1!"

So the slaughter at the Debaltsevo Cauldron never happened lmao?!?!

Here's something from back then. The video is somewhat 'graphic', but there isn't any gore displayed. Ukronie piglets were literally squealing like swine in the vid.      

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1379261415861669891

Btw Ukraine is much, much worse than they were in 2014-2015, and the Donbass is more formidable than they were back in 2015. Some of the most important armor plants are only semi-functional, such as the Malyshev Plant which is undergoing mass layoffs, and the remaining staff going multiple months pay. Their staff morale is probably like shite right now, and the welding from this point forward from the Malyshev Plant will hold up like wet toilet paper lol!

Is Ukrainian artillery a real force?

The Ukrainian army still has a powerful artillery fist. According to the Military Balance yearbook, there are 292 122-mm 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled guns, 302 152-mm 2S3 Akatsia, 35 152-mm 2S19 Msta-S, 18 152-mm 2S5 Hyacinth-S in service. ", 13 2C7" Peony ".

The number of towed artillery is also impressive: 75 122-mm D-30 howitzers, 180 152-mm 2A36 "Hyacinth-B", 130 152-mm 2A65 "Msta-B", 130 152-mm D-20.

There are also about 500 MT-12 / T-12 100-mm anti-tank guns. Mortar armament is represented by 340 units of 120-mm caliber.

Multiple launch rocket systems: 185 122 mm Gradov, 70 220 mm Hurricanes and 81 300 mm Smerch MLRS.

All of the above samples are developments of the Soviet era and they do not have modern fire control systems. At the same time, the action of the artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is possible in cooperation with unmanned aerial vehicles, including the Turkish Bayraktar.

It is known about the deliveries of American radar for detecting mortar positions, counter-battery radars "Zoo-3" are also being produced.

The Achilles' heel of the Ukrainian army is that the warehouses are full of ammunition that has not been renewed since the times of the Soviet Union. It was not possible to establish their own large-scale production. But in the event of the resumption of active hostilities in the Donbas, assistance is expected from the countries of Eastern Europe.

Dmitry Lemeshko

https://ccjxb7mtjzvdlijltvyqiiphlm--vestnik-rm-ru.translate.goog/news/oborona-i-bezopasnost/predstavlyaet-li-realnuyu-silu-ukrainskaya-artilleriya?utm_source=warfiles.ru

littlerabbit wrote:I have a question for all people on this forum. If we put aside whether there will be a war in Donbass or not, it looks like NATO will conduct some "training" or whatever with Ukrainian troops (Kossack  mace) later this year. Considering Kiev's appeals to NATO to allow Ukraine to join immediately that organisation, what if NATO (especially US troops) decide to stay there, even after exercises? What Russia will/can do in that case?

Promote insurrection, cross the Dnieper, with local troops (Donbass forces - the public face) at the helm. If all else fails properly invade. The thing is, you don't want to wait for the inevitable to happen in order to then react to it. In these sort of national security matters you need to be proactive, not reactionary. If Russia wants to prevent that likely future, then it has to capitalize on the Ukies invading the Donbass... NOW (the casus belli to sell the war at home in Russia gift wrapped by the Ukies/Americans). If it's a measured op that settles down in time, then trying to restart hostilities on the eventual fact of NATO deployment in the Ukraine (U.S casus belli to sell at home being Russian involvement in the Donbass) will be a level of magnitude harder to do. The Americans have more or less checkmated the Russians in Ukraine. I think Russia's response will say a lot about their fears and weakness or courage at the leadership level.... You'll be able to either smell determination in the air or defeatism once the dust clears. Weakness will not be rewarded, that is for damn sure.

Those are the options they've always had once they lost Kiev. Now Putin can try and dream of all other possible ways... wishfully dream of Ukrainian collapse and all the other propaganda babble but it's not serious.

It's either those options or accept NATO ever closer to Moscow proper. And bitch and cry about it hoping someone hears it as always.

Credit where credit is due to Lord Putin for presiding over the disaster on his watch. I would be surprised if they could pull a coup.... highly surprised. Fact is the SVR is a shell of its former KGB self. In other words don't expect it other than a few turncoats on the military brass (which may be of significant value).

Also seeing this a lot......the idea that saving the Donbass is somehow Russia's checkmate to Ukraine becoming part of NATO... symptoms of severe historical myopia from a lot of commentators here. As if Yugoslavia never happened. NATO in Ukraine is happening, with or without the Donbass lmao. Stop trying to avoid the hard pill to swallow. The real question, that Russian leadership has to answer, is how much of Ukraine will be under NATO control. Putin decides that... it's his decision to make. If hostilities do turn hot we'll get our answers soon. I don't want to hear no bitching about NATO encroaching on Russia's borders through Ukraine years from now if Putin does a small op. Anyone can see it coming dummy. What did you do to prevent it and stop it?

franco wrote:
The Ukrainian army still has a powerful artillery fist. According to the Military Balance yearbook, there are 292 122-mm 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled guns, 302 152-mm 2S3 Akatsia, 35 152-mm 2S19 Msta-S, 18 152-mm 2S5 Hyacinth-S in service. ", 13 2C7" Peony ".

The number of towed artillery is also impressive: 75 122-mm D-30 howitzers, 180 152-mm 2A36 "Hyacinth-B", 130 152-mm 2A65 "Msta-B", 130 152-mm D-20.

There are also about 500 MT-12 / T-12 100-mm anti-tank guns. Mortar armament is represented by 340 units of 120-mm caliber.

Multiple launch rocket systems: 185 122 mm Gradov, 70 220 mm Hurricanes and 81 300 mm Smerch MLRS.

Its the artillery that would worry me. As I have said why before, I won't repeat it, but Russia will need to respond within seconds of the first salvo being fired.

This is what I said earlier on ZH

Russia needs the Ukraine like a hole in the head. The US took it off their hands and they wont make the mistake of taking it back. But they don't want it as a US missile base in NATO.

Russia has no reason to move any significant amount of its military onto Ukrainian soil. It can achieve all its objectives just by firing howitzers, rockets and missiles from the comfort of home due to their ability to hit all the way to the western border. Russian barrel/tube and missile artillery is the best there is, by far and most politicians in the West have no idea of its capabilities. Having broken the back and C2 structure of the Ukrainian Army, the local Donbass forces can clean up, probably seizing land out to their oblast borders but no further.

The Russian involvement, shook and aweski, could be over in less than 6 hours, or even less, leaving a totally destroyed Ukrainian military (for obvious reasons no munition would land within 5 miles of a hospital!) leaving Kiev with no option but to implement the Minsk deal. Russia keeping Donbass in Ukraine under that arrangement as a lever on power in Kiev, a bit like a poison pill.

With unexpectedly rapid action, no invasion and no love of Kiev in Europe outside NATO HQ, the reaction could well be like a flock of pigeons hearing a gunshot, lots of noise then back to normal.

After this continuing hard winter Europe really needs NS2, their gas stocks are lower than they have ever been whilst also pumping out of NS1 at 110% of capacity. Dutch and Norwegian fields are in decline and gas is the only hope for politicians intent on turning green. The acid test is whether Germany in particular has the balls to tell the US to mind its own business, by the way, there are 3500 joint Russian/German companies in operation.

That was the Donbass situation. If the Ukrainians made the mistake of attacking what the Russians regard as their land, Crimea, as opposed to Donbass which is where their people are at risk in a foreign land, then all bets are off. The reaction would almost certainly be equally quick but far less merciful on TPTB in Kiev.

franco wrote:...If Moscow had both bypass pipelines in operation today, it could have redirected "Ukrainian volumes" to them, paying Kiev what was stipulated in the contract, and pursuing a tougher policy towards Kiev. Theoretically, one could seriously speculate about some kind of forceful solution to the problem. But that is precisely why Ukraine, or rather the United States behind it, is now playing ahead of the curve. Only 5% of its total length remains to be laid along Nord Stream 2, then it will still need to be certified somehow. Provided that Germany favors this energy project, Berlin could try again to knock out for it another exception from the norms of the Third Energy Package in order to completely fill both of its lines with gas. However, all this will go to pieces in the event of a full-scale war in the East of Ukraine.

If Russian troops officially appear on the territory of Donbass, which are now demonstratively pulling towards the border, and begin to "iron" the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kiev will declare aggression from Moscow and provide evidence, and Washington and Brussels will support it. Another package of anti-Russian sanctions will be introduced, which will either completely block Nord Stream 2, and at the same time the Balkan Stream, or make their work impossible in normal mode. The United States will get its hands on an instrument of forced "shutdown" of Russian gas pipelines in Europe, taking control of our exports. Such gloomy prospects are looming.

https://pll4mi3fskkynekzvxxr6u4ery--topcor-ru.translate.goog/19367-glavnaja-cel-vojny-na-donbasse-kroetsja-ne-v-vozvraschenii-regiona.html

Excellent article. But what makes them think in case Turk Stream and Nord Stream 2 are complete and the EU sanctions them, for some supposed benefit to Ukraine, that Russia will sell them the gas that would pass through those pipes through Ukraine? Russia can simply refuse to supply gas. If I was Russia I would simply state that the whole Ukraine bypass is a form of corruption and make the courts cancel the deal. The US does this all the time. They even cancel other countries deals like French oil companies operating abroad by threatening them with huge billion dollar fines on their US operations. Even more stupidly those Ukrainian gas transit fees are basically Germany and the Balkan countries paying Ukraine indirectly to purchase Russian gas. I doubt any of those countries will want to subsidize Ukraine long term. Sure, it is a great way to blindside your public at home that you are in effect making massive money transfers to Ukraine in exchange for nothing in return. But it is a shit sandwich which I doubt will continue for too long. The whole objective I think is to pump blood into the corpse that is Ukraine so that they can appear "alive" enough they can get them to join NATO. Great for the US I suppose, but is that such a great deal for Europe? I am pretty certain the Germans and the powers that be in the EU would rather provide the money as loans to Ukraine so they would lock them into their grasp.

Russia could also reactivate that plan to make those LNG terminals near St. Petersburg and export some of that gas out anyway. I am pretty certain it would get sold out. If St. Petersburg being ice locked in the winter is a problem, just make a pipeline to Kaliningrad and put the LNG terminal there.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

littlerabbit wrote:I have a question for all people on this forum. If we put aside whether there will be a war in Donbass or not, it looks like NATO will conduct some "training" or whatever with Ukrainian troops (Kossack  mace) later this year. Considering Kiev's appeals to NATO to allow Ukraine to join immediately that organisation, what if NATO (especially US troops) decide to stay there, even after exercises? What Russia will/can do in that case?

Your question is if US troops stay in Ukraine what can Russia do? correct?.

I'll answer the NATO question to.

1. If NATO decides to let Ukraine and Ukraine goes for it in nothing Russia can do aside from invading I guess before they are official sworn in, I suppose they could try and coup the Ukraine government but with how anti russian Kiev is that won't happen.

2. Ukraine is a sovereign nation so if it decides to permit US troops to stay in Ukraine for good Russia again cannot do anything about that, as it has no say what two countries do, just like if china put troops on the russian border, no one could officially do anything about that but apply pressure which amounts to nothing.

Russia should build a new air base and naval facilities with submarine pens in Cuba. Seriously. Why Russia hasn't done this yet i dont know.

Russia would attack anyway. See how US withdrew their troops for Syrian bases after Russia warned them and progressed.

Nothing NATO could do. And so far, they all have been shying away from saying full support cause they don't want to. They just want Kiev to do something stupid.