The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

Most of you know where I live. Yesterday we had to go to Krasnodar by POV on the mainland to do some banking, with sanctions there's some things we can't do here. Gentlemen, after careful thought and a virtually sleepless night, I have decided what to say. I will not say one word about what we saw or where we saw, I will simply say this, and pray I/we are wrong. It is dawn, 27 July 1914. I will comment no further and I will be off forum for the duration. God bless and stay safe.

auslander wrote:Most of you know where I live. Yesterday we had to go to Krasnodar by POV on the mainland to do some banking, with sanctions there's some things we can't do here. Gentlemen, after careful thought and a virtually sleepless night, I have decided what to say. I will not say one word about what we saw or where we saw, I will simply say this, and pray I/we are wrong. It is dawn, 27 July 1914. I will comment no further and I will be off forum for the duration. God bless and stay safe.

Be safe there Auslander.

Like Georgia, if Ukraine does anything, everyone else will step back while Russia rescues the east. Rest of Ukraine will be pickings for the west.

Funny how some people claim that this is about water supply for Crimea, i guess it's one of the endless excuses to spin it as "Russian Aggression", also glad to see Duran and SF viewers on this forum as well

Southfront is garbage. Half the shit they talk about is emotions and not fact driven, especially when it comes to economics and social issues within Russia.

miketheterrible wrote:Southfront is garbage. Half the shit they talk about is emotions and not fact driven, especially when it comes to economics and social issues within Russia.

I realize they spew some of the same western talking points, like every year I read about the same shit about the bad Russian economy, they're still far better than most, but i don’t know why SF always chooses the most dubious analytics about Russia.

auslander wrote:Most of you know where I live. Yesterday we had to go to Krasnodar by POV on the mainland to do some banking, with sanctions there's some things we can't do here. Gentlemen, after careful thought and a virtually sleepless night, I have decided what to say. I will not say one word about what we saw or where we saw, I will simply say this, and pray I/we are wrong. It is dawn, 27 July 1914. I will comment no further and I will be off forum for the duration. God bless and stay safe.

Russia is a guarantor of Minsk agreements after all, that should ring some alarms in the heads of "Kiev's authorities", hope it does. All the best to you and your family

Saker and Ishchenko wrote very good pieces these days. I am alarmed by the certainty of impending war that the second transmits, he is not the kind of sensationalistic guy that cries wolf for nothing. We will see, I guess:

A random world with a dangerous Ukraine

It happens that wars start accidentally: due to a misunderstanding, due to an incorrect assessment of the opponent's intentions, or due to a provocation by a third force. However, there are situations when the preservation of peace turns out to be an accident, so inevitable does war seem to the parties involved in the crisis

Now we are in just such a situation. Moreover, the main danger is not the ambitions of the United States, which realizes that it can only maintain its hegemony by force. Washington understands the risk of a major war involving nuclear powers. They don't need any kind of war, but in the appropriate format. Therefore, US actions are more or less predictable, and they can be controlled.

The main danger is the small vassals of the United States who are thrown on the sidelines of global politics (they consider themselves America's allies). Local regimes cannot exist without American support. If it runs out, the last resort to win back Washington's attention is war. Moreover, a war with Russia or a war that can be sold to the "civilized world" as a war with Russia.

In the capitals of the abandoned protectorates, it is vaguely understood that America needs to draw Russia into full-scale hostilities, which could be turned into a war of some kind by a "European coalition" against Moscow. It is not a war between NATO and Russia, but a war of a coalition limited to several members of NATO and the EU with the participation of non-member States against Russia.

In the event of a war in this format, the Americans have the opportunity to put pressure on their European friends and partners, demanding that all trade and economic ties with Russia, "which is fighting against NATO and EU members," and China, as its ally, be completely nullified. Thus, the problem of maintaining American control over Europe is solved without the United States ' own efforts. In addition, America gets the opportunity to act as a "peacemaker", demanding that Russia, which is able to quickly defeat any European coalition, stop military operations without acquiring significant advantages.

Therefore, the Americans not only do not restrain the militancy of small limitrophes, but, on the contrary, encourage it with all their might. Ukraine is the most dangerous country in terms of provoking a military conflict.

First, Kiev has been declaring for seven years that it is waging war with Moscow, which has "attacked" it.

Secondly, the presence of an unresolved military conflict in the Donbas makes it possible to defrost the crisis at any convenient time.

Third, the Ukrainian authorities and the expert community are simply inadequate. Most decision-makers in Kiev believe that the collective West will fight for Ukraine in full force in the event of an open Ukrainian-Russian conflict.

Fourth, the socio-economic situation in Ukraine is so catastrophic and hopeless that war remains the only hope of the current government to survive and preserve the semblance of statehood.

The situation in and around Ukraine is absolutely clear and transparent for all interested players. The United States is carefully watching, carefully avoiding any actions that could be interpreted as encouraging the Ukrainian authorities to escalate tensions, as Kiev moves in the direction they need (to war). Washington needs that at the time of the outbreak of war, no one can accuse it of provocative actions. Ukraine must do everything by itself.

Paris and Berlin try to "ignore nothing", hoping that it will pass, that Russia itself will somehow get out of it and they will not have to, to the delight of America, sever economic ties with Moscow. The position is ostrich, but this kind of" Italian strike " is the maximum that the current authorities of France and Germany can afford in their relations with the United States.

Poles and Balts are happily pushing Ukraine into conflict, hoping that they themselves will be able to avoid the fate of us cannon fodder, that the conflict will be resolved at the expense of Ukraine, that they will still be able to profit from its division. However, only the poles encroach on Ukraine, the Balts lick their lips at Belarus (in which Polish interests also exist).

The Russian leadership concluded last year that the Kiev authorities had abandoned the peaceful solution to the Ukrainian crisis. This was evidenced by a whole series of diplomatic steps by Moscow, starting with the refusal to talk about anything with Kiev until the commitments made by Zelensky following the last meeting in the Normandy format are fulfilled, and ending with Lavrov's statement that he is ready to completely break off relations with the EU as an organization, despite the fact that Moscow leaves the doors to cooperation open for each individual EU country. Russia also warned Paris and Berlin that they bear full responsibility for the behavior of their Kiev charges.

The corresponding political (on the claims of the people's republics on the territory within the borders of the former Donetsk and Luhansk regions) and military (an order to open fire on preemptive positions of the armed forces of Ukraine, from which the territories of the republics are being shelled) steps were taken by the authorities of the DPR and LPR. At the same time, Russia has tried to intensify the process of issuing Russian passports to the population of the republics as much as possible. The Ukrainian authorities claim that Russian troops are being built up in the Rostov and Belgorod regions, but Moscow does not comment on these reports, while the Russian press periodically publishes unconfirmed (but also unconfirmed) information about the recruitment of volunteers to participate in the fighting in the Donbass.

Russia openly conducts diplomatic and informational preparations for war, using the demonstration of its readiness for the worst option in order to cool the hotheads in Kiev and in the EU (the United States, as already mentioned, does not plan to fight itself, at least at the first stage). It seems, however, that the worst cannot be avoided, despite Moscow's best efforts.

The Ukrainian authorities have lost all adequacy and officially announced their intention to conduct large-scale counter-terrorism exercises in the zone adjacent to the contact line in the Donbass. In the military history of mankind, exercises have often been used as a pretext for conducting the deployment of invasion forces. Given the fact that Kiev calls politicians, military personnel and the population of the DPR/LPR terrorists, as well as bearing in mind the constant shelling of the territories of the republics by the armed forces of Ukraine, it is easy to understand that the declared exercises are extremely provocative and can really cause an "accidental" war.

Immediately after Kiev's statements about the exercises, Moscow asked Paris and Berlin for talks at the level of presidents and the Chancellor in video format, without Zelensky. Russia stressed that we are not talking about the "Normandy format", since there is nothing to talk about with Ukraine. In fact, this is an unequivocal proposal from France and Germany to calm Ukraine down before the worst happens.

However, despite the obvious need for urgent negotiations, there are conflicting signals coming from European capitals. Either Paris and Berlin confirm their intention to hold a videoconference, but note that a specific date has not yet been agreed, or information comes from Berlin that the conference cannot be held for unknown reasons. Apparently, the German and French leaders are simply stalling for time, allowing Ukraine and the United States to solve their tasks.

At the same time, our European partners hint at their readiness to hold a video conference in the "Normandy format" (that is, with Ukraine).

The latter is nonsense, since Kiev uses its participation in the conference not to find a solution to the problem, but to declare its "special position", which implies the need to rewrite the Minsk agreements in the way Ukraine wants.

As we can see, the actions of the parties indicate that everyone considers the conflict inevitable and uses the remaining time to take the most favorable position and try to clear themselves of potential accusations of contributing to the transition of the crisis to the hot phase.

The Kremlin has almost explicitly warned Western partners that if the war in Ukraine is unleashed, its end will be far from any of the options that suit the West. This can be considered a last-ditch attempt to persuade the West to think twice and force Ukraine to abandon provocation of war. This attempt is unlikely to be successful. The West has gone too far, all its calculations are based on the inevitability of war, it is driven by the inertia of decisions already made, and it is not going to change its mind (in particular, the United States).

We can only hope that the worst-case scenario will be averted by a miracle, and understand that if the miracle does not happen, the victory (not only military, but also political, and diplomatic) will still be ours.

https://ukraina.ru/opinion/20210330/1030985172.html

It is rather clear to me that for Russia, if push comes to shove, the decision is already made to crush Ukrainian military in such a fast and comprehensive way, that there is no extended fight and no subsequent opportunity for the West to engage and further escalate, Novorossian forces would do the cleanup. This is being made really clear to Kiev.

The last Saker's piece, specially relevant amidst the shit storm provoked as of late by trolls, cheap commies and retards of all sorts in this and other platforms:

http://thesaker.is/understanding-anti-putin-psyops-preparing-for-war/

JohninMK wrote:Platitudes from the US

The west is playing the victim card again.

Kashin at Stalker noticed that in the last days the anti-russian propaganda slowed down, most reports from Russia were "neutral" and that this only happens before a larger provocation.

Wording isn't much different than US towards Georgia. In other words, they are short of saying "yeah, go for it, we got your back" which means absolutely nothing.

This is Kiev's last ditch effort to help US get EU to abandon Nord Stream 2. This is an attempt to try and seperate Russia from Europe. So be it. In the end, if Russia puts an end to Kiev, then Russia wins with people and EU will be forced to buy Russian gas anyway.

Kedmi compared the Armed Forces of Ukraine with an army of militias: Donbass will resolve the issue even without the Russian Federation

The likelihood of an armed clash in the Donbass remains. At the same time, even without the participation of the Russian army, the forces of the unrecognized republics will defeat the Ukrainian troops, since they have more firepower and better trained fighters. The Israeli political scientist, former chief of the Nativ special service, Yakov Kedmi, is convinced of this.

In February-March, Kiev escalated the situation on the line of demarcation with the unrecognized republics of Donbass. Echelons with military equipment were sent there. Shelling became more frequent. At the same time, officials in Kiev are increasingly talking about the need to reformat the Minsk agreements.

So far, the Ukrainian authorities have not decided on a military offensive. But some experts do not exclude that this may happen in May, when the earth dries up and there is no spring thaw.

Military analyst Yakov Kedmi gave his military forecast on the air of one of the Russian radio stations in the Full Contact program: “The likelihood of a conflict by the decision of the Ukrainian authorities is very low. First, there is no Ukrainian government in Ukraine. They are under external control. And those (who manage them) perfectly understand what is happening. The likelihood of the outbreak of hostilities and their rapid development on the irresponsible actions of some local chieftain - it can be. It can be by any chance. One not enough responsible shot ... "

Answering the question about the ratio of the military capabilities of Russia and Ukraine, the analyst said that these are incomparable things. “On the one hand - the state, and on the other - walk-field. You can put on a well-tailored under-American or NATO uniform, this will not increase the army's combat effectiveness, ”he said.

According to the expert, one should not even take into account the capabilities of the Russian army. “The ratio of the firepower of Donbass exceeds the firepower of the Ukrainian army in artillery - three times, in tanks - twice. The balance of forces in terms of combat capability or combat training of soldiers is impossible to compare in Donbass and in Ukraine, ”he said.

The expert explained that in Ukraine, with the exception of the Nazbats of the Azov type (banned in the Russian Federation), the troops are manned by conscripts. And the Donbass militia are professionals who have been fighting for seven years. “I'm not even talking about the attitude and behavior on the battlefield of a recruit and a person who has been in this state for 5-6 years. This is heaven and earth, ”he said.

Kedmi believes that the armed forces of Donbass are capable, without the Russian army, of solving the problem of accidental shelling by the Ukrainians once and for all, destroying "within a few hours all the artillery installations and tank units that are nearby."

He compared the situation with Israel, where the army responds quickly to any fire from the Palestinian side. “God forbid, one shell or one mine that arrives from Gaza (the Palestinian enclave) will hit the kindergarten, and children or women will die ... They know this very well, and therefore very often recently, (when) some a crazy rocket, along with this rocket there was a call: "Sorry, this is not us, this is by mistake, this is lightning struck, we did not want anything, do not think." Because the next blow will be a disaster, ”said Kedmi.

In his opinion, the forces of Donbass probably have similar plans in the event of a military escalation.

https://viysq5tyczhy54va65gm2d6ogq--k-politika-ru.translate.goog/kedmi-sravnil-vsu-s-armiej-opolchencev-donbass-reshit-vopros-dazhe-bez-rf/?utm_source=warfiles.ru

Ideally there'd be secret negotiations between Biden and Putin with the agreement that the USA can publicly support Ukrainian integrity whilst secretly throwing it to the Wolves by not getting too involved. I bet most Americans couldn't locate Ukraine on a map so going to war over it wouldn't be popular.

Finty wrote:Ideally there'd be secret negotiations between Biden and Putin with the agreement that the USA can publicly support Ukrainian integrity whilst secretly throwing it to the Wolves by not getting too involved. I bet most Americans couldn't locate Ukraine on a map so going to war over it wouldn't be popular.

They wouldn't go to war for Ukraine regardless. They didn't for Georgia when Russia was in a weaker position. It's all bluff on US end. Have you noticed no ever mention of military support?

JohninMK wrote:The meeting took place, I think on Tuesday, as per the video in Post 64 above. When Putin told Merkel/Macron a few realities of life.

True, yet it seems EU covered all in COVID topics it seems, to make it more palatable to their audience. I don't know how much more explicit Russia can be, maybe releasing some video of an Iskander demolishing a governmental building would deliver the message through those thick ukropithecus skulls?

LMFS wrote:

JohninMK wrote:The meeting took place, I think on Tuesday, as per the video in Post 64 above. When Putin told Merkel/Macron a few realities of life.

True, yet it seems EU covered all in COVID topics it seems, to make it more palatable to their audience. I don't know how much more explicit Russia can be, maybe releasing some video of an Iskander demolishing a governmental building would deliver the message through those thick ukropithecus skulls?

Into the rada and Russia's problems go away

The Drivel is out with a lame propaganda piece on the escalation. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40016/russian-armor-floods-toward-border-with-ukraine-amid-fears-of-an-imminent-crisis

It says:

Prompting some level of crisis with Ukraine could also help the Kremlin distract attention from domestic issues, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, in Russia.

Yeah. Ukraine has been sending arms to the frontline for weeks , so Russia is sending arms in response. But they couch this as Russia sending arms out of the blue, to distract from domestic issues like a successful rollout of the Sputnik2 vaccine and sovereign debt rating upgrade from Fitch.

The western stayed silent about Ukraine sending arms to the frontline but when Russia finally responds, they just report that. Leaving it out the context. Or adding bullshit context.

Because, everyone knows its US decision to push Ukraine to conflict to try to seperate Russia from Europe through final sanctions. So of course they will lie on behest of Ukraine. They have been doing it since 2014. So what makes you think they wouldn't lie now?

Everyone also knows its a lie. No one actually believes the BS. Only those who do either 1) have same agenda as their US gov does, 2) hate Russia anyway so won't bother seeing any other perspective or 3) people who don't give a shit in the end and will simply parrot whatever they are told.

Anyone with half a brain knows what's happening anyway.

They know Russia didn't suffer same issues as west with Covid deaths. They know Russia produces vaccines for their own people, were first ones and has an ever growing number of countries pushing to get it while the west can't even get enough for themselves.

It doesn't matter anyway. Might makes right and Russia knows this. The movement of weaponry is correct and they are saying it isn't a threat to anyone. So long as they don't do something stupid. If Ukraine does something stupid, guess what happens next? Soldiers and equipment don't get moved near a border to sit there and have tea and sunshine. It's there to prepare for the worst.

And by sounds of it, no one worth their salt (so like 98% of the country vs the loud multicolored hair 2%) gives a shit about blowing up Ukraine

Backman wrote:Yeah. Ukraine has been sending arms to the frontline for weeks , so Russia is sending arms in response. But they couch this as Russia sending arms out of the blue, to distract from domestic issues like a successful rollout of the Sputnik2 vaccine and sovereign debt rating upgrade from Fitch.

The western stayed silent about Ukraine sending arms to the frontline but when Russia finally responds, they just report that. Leaving it out the context. Or adding bullshit context.

Does it even matter what Russia does or does not? The West is 200% guaranteed to twist it as grotesquely as they need so that it fits their narrative. Hitler was victim of Soviet aggression, killing a million Iraqi people was self defence, nukes in Japan were for the good of the Japanese... nobody gives a shit anymore about whatever crap they manufacture, only illiterate masses in the West fall for it but they do not count that much regardless. Russia will do what they need to do and make sure it counts on the ground, where it matters. So go ahead, lose half of Ukraine and then sweeten it for your audience with your propaganda you sick losers...