Russian hydrocarbon (Oil and Gas and Coal) Industry: News #4

For the first time in two years, Russia has surpassed the United States in gas supplies to Europe, by Dmitry Zubarev for VZGLYAD. 06.16.2024.


Russian gas supplies to Europe in May exceeded US gas exports for the first time in almost two years, the British newspaper Financial Times (FT) reported, citing the consulting company ICIS.

The publication recalled that in May, according to ICIS, Russian pipeline supplies of gas and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by sea exceeded the United States, accounting for 15% of all supplies to the European Union; LNG from the United States last month accounted for 14% of the total European gas imports, which was the lowest level since August 2022.

As Tom Marzek-Manser, head of the gas market analytical department at ICIS, said, it is surprising to see how the share of Russian gas in the European market is increasing after all the efforts to reduce imports from Russia and reduce risks in the issue of energy supplies, TASS reports . The FT noted that gas flows were affected by disruptions at a major LNG export facility in Texas and increased Russian gas supplies through Turkey.

Marzek-Manser added that Russia is unlikely to be able to maintain leadership in the issue of gas supplies to Europe, and in the future the European Commission is interested in expanding gas supplies to the EU through Azerbaijan along the Southern Gas Transport Corridor.

Earlier, the heads of the energy ministries of the G7 countries agreed to continue working to stop importing gas from Russia, as follows from the ministerial statement following the meeting in Turin, Italy.

https://vz.ru/news/2024/6/16/1273341.html

Kiko wrote:The publication recalled that in May, according to ICIS, Russian pipeline supplies of gas and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by sea exceeded the United States, accounting for 15% of all supplies to the European Union; LNG from the United States last month accounted for 14% of the total European gas imports, which was the lowest level since August 2022.

As Tom Marzek-Manser, head of the gas market analytical department at ICIS, said, it is surprising to see how the share of Russian gas in the European market is increasing after all the efforts to reduce imports from Russia and reduce risks in the issue of energy supplies, TASS reports . The FT noted that gas flows were affected by disruptions at a major LNG export facility in Texas and increased Russian gas supplies through Turkey.

Kiko wrote:Marzek-Manser added that Russia is unlikely to be able to maintain leadership in the issue of gas supplies to Europe, and in the future the European Commission is interested in expanding gas supplies to the EU through Azerbaijan along the Southern Gas Transport Corridor.

The whole LNG thing is a huge bluff on the part of the US. 

Russia is creating its own “shadow” fleet of gas carriers
27 June 2024

Dubai companies are buying gas carriers, which are immediately issued permits to sail along the Northern Sea

Vessel tracking agency Equasis reports that eight LNG carriers have already been purchased by an unknown Dubai company this year. Four of them are Ice class, and they very quickly received permission to sail along the Northern Sea Route (NSR).

The gas carrier Asya Energy was recently able to successfully navigate the Red Sea, becoming the first LNG carrier to travel along this route since the beginning of the year. Nur, established in 2022, already operates three LNG carriers since April - Pioneer, New Energy and Mulan.

Equasis indicates that four more ice-protected gas carriers have become owned by Dubai-based White Fox Ship Management. The Russian Federation recently approved the passage of these vessels through the waters of the Arctic Ocean.

Russia now ranks fourth in the world in LNG exports and has every reason to look for an opportunity to bring its gas to the market. “It is understandable that Russian companies want to form their fleet of gas carriers similar to the ‘shadow’ oil fleet,” said the European Petroleum Export Council.

But why to form a “shadow” fleet is a separate question. Let us remind you that in nine months it will no longer be possible to transship Russian LNG at European ports, including from Arctic projects. And in the future, experts admit that after the launch of Qatari and American projects, Europe may ban LNG from the Russian Federation altogether. So the creation of a fleet that is not tracked by the West is a completely logical step.

https://oilcapital.ru/news/2024-06-27/rossiya-sozdaet-svoy-tenevoy-flot-gazovozov-5122909

Russian LNG for Vietnam - misplaced ambitions or a strict necessity?
June 24, 2024

Alexey Gromov: LNG supplies to Vietnam have good potential

Russia intends to supply Vietnam with LNG, the demand for which in Hanoi will grow until 2030. How interesting is the gas market of the South Asian country for LNG suppliers from Russia, and will companies be able to find free regasification capacity, as well as transport, for export to Vietnam?

During his visit to Vietnam, Russian President  Vladimir Putin said that NOVATEK intends to launch gas liquefaction projects in the Asian country . In an interview for the central press organ of the Vietnamese Communist Party, Nhan Zan, he also added that Gazprom is already operating in this state (producing gas).

There are also prospects for cooperation regarding nuclear energy. Putin said that the parties are studying and implementing an initiative to create a Center for Nuclear Science and Technology in Vietnam with the support of the Russian Rosatom group.

How interesting is the Vietnamese energy market for the Russian Federation and is the oil and gas sector able to offer the volumes the South Asian country needs in the current realities?

Vietnam's gassy appetite

Coal plays a huge part in the South Asian country's energy production. Due to abnormal heat in recent years, its shortage has repeatedly provoked interruptions in electricity supplies, so the state increased its imports in 2024. In the first quarter alone, coal purchases doubled. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam, the country's coal demand will be around 94-97 million tons in 2025 and will peak at 125-127 million tons in 2030.

However, after 2030, the demand for coal will begin to decrease. This will happen not because the population in the country will decrease or production capacity will fall, but because of gasification, which the government has been trying to implement for a long time.

In December 2023, in the national energy development strategy of Vietnam until 2030, the Politburo of the CPV Central Committee set a new task for the development of the gas industry. The essence of the plan is to increase the share of gas in electricity generation through the import of LNG (partly through offshore production in the Malai Tho Chu basin, which is planned to begin in 2026 in the amount of 13 million cubic meters per day) and new gas pipelines in the country.

Even before this (in the summer of 2023), politicians approved resolution No. 893/QD-TTg, approving the master plan for the development of national energy for the period 2021–2030. According to this plan, the country will have to increase import capacity for liquefied natural gas to 15.7-18.2 billion cubic meters per year by 2030.

This is a good increase considering current consumption volumes. The country currently has two LNG terminals. One of them, Cai Mep, is located in the southern province of Ba Ria-Vung Tau in southern Vietnam and is capable of importing 3 million tons of LNG per year. The other, Thi Vai, is capable of receiving 1 million tons per year, but they plan to increase the capacity to 3 million tons per year.

Both terminals are new. So far, only Thi Vai accepts LNG shipments, which, after regasification, sends the blue fuel through pipelines to two gas power plants with a total capacity of 1.5 GW (the project is being implemented by a joint venture of Samsung C&T Corp and PTSC).

Even if Cai Mep starts operating at full capacity right now and Thi Vai increases its capacity, Vietnam will be able to import about 6 million tons of LNG per year. It turns out that by 2030, according to the government’s plan, the country will increase its technical capacity to receive LNG fivefold.

The strategy makes sense as the country of 100 million people will more than double its energy production capacity (mostly from gas-fired power plants) to 150 GW by 2030. For comparison: in 2020 the figure was 69 GW.

Will Russia have LNG and transport?

Back in October 2022, NOVATEK head Leonid Mikhelson stated that the company was studying the possibility of supplying LNG to Vietnam, which the latter needs to meet the needs of new power plants. He then noted that PetroVietnam’s own production was falling, and there was a power plant that alone consumed a billion cubic meters of gas per year (about 0.9 million tons of LNG). The head of NOVATEK even talked about studying the construction of a new LNG terminal in Vietnam.

Alas, during Putin’s visit to this country, nothing was said about the new LNG terminal that a Russian company could build. The reasons are quite obvious. Firstly, Russian companies do not have the full range of technologies and equipment to build a terminal on their own without partners from Europe and North America (who are now distancing themselves from the Russian Federation due to sanctions). Secondly, the Arctic LNG 2 project still does not have gas carriers to send LNG for export.

However, as Aleksey Gromov , director of energy at the Institute of Energy and Finance, noted in a commentary for NiK , the prospects for the Vietnamese market for Russia must be looked at taking into account the constant deterioration in the European market. Today, the main Russian projects, primarily Yamal LNG, are focused on the countries of the European Union. However, the 14th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation in Europe has already adopted a ban on the transshipment of liquefied gas in the ports of the Old World, i.e. we will not be able to re-export LNG from these sea harbors.

“It is obvious that the next step, when additional LNG export capacity will be added to the world market from 2025 due to the emergence of new terminals in a number of countries, the EU will generally introduce an embargo on Russian liquefied gas.

In this situation, Moscow today needs to think through where it can direct the already existing capacities of the Russian Federation, which are now moving in a western direction,”

— said the chief director for energy at the Institute of Energy and Finance.

The expert emphasized that in addition to Europe, the main growth in demand for LNG will be in Asia, and this must be taken advantage of. Another thing is that logistics will become more complex for the Russian Federation. It’s one thing to supply liquefied gas at prices attractive to the seller to EU countries via a short logistics distance, and quite another thing to deliver it through the Suez Canal to Asia. The profitability of such supplies will be much lower.

“But if we are talking about the future, then there is good potential. From 2026, according to representatives of the Northern Sea Route, year-round navigation will begin along this route. If there is the required number of icebreaking ships, then trade with Asia in the Russian Federation will become more intense. In this light, LNG supplies to Vietnam, again taking into account potential problems in the European market, seem more than relevant.

The implementation schedule for potential LNG projects in the Russian Federation will shift to the right for a number of reasons. However, now we need to think about existing factories and where to sell their products in a couple of years. In this regard, Vietnam is one of the markets where it will be possible to sell it,”

- says Alexey Gromov.

https://oilcapital.ru/news/2024-06-24/rossiyskiy-spg-dlya-vietnama-neumestnye-ambitsii-ili-zhestkaya-neobhodimost-5119211

flamming_python wrote:Not only South Stream.

But now via Turkey from the South Caucasus Pipeline too, given that Russia is supplying Azerbaijan with gas with reverse-flow via the gas pipeline between Azerbaijan and Russia that was originally built to supply Russia with Azeri gas. And of course the South Caucasus Pipeline was originally built to provide Europe an alternative to Russian gas.

kvs wrote:
A lot of these graphics are basically propaganda. Dick measuring contests without much detail as to the methodology and context. Russia produces more gas than the US.

caveat emptor wrote:It will be interesting to see how much improvement will Gazprom's results show this year. Gas prices in Russia were hiked, they cut dividend and CAPEX, China deliveries are slowly rising and oil prices have been holding ok.

caveat emptor wrote:


Something is not being explained properly here. My guess is that hidden gas transfers have been happening.