Russia's Novatek on Track to Complete 2nd Train of Arctic LNG 2 in 2024
The final module for the 2nd production line of Russian gas producer Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 project, departed from China last week. In February the company will integrate the last three modules ahead of towing the LNG train to the Gydan peninsula this summer. While US sanctions have not yet halted construction, it remains to be seen how much LNG Novatek will be able to sell.
In a major step toward completion of the second train - or liquefaction unit - of Russian gas producer Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 project, the final prefabricated module left a Chinese construction yard bound for Murmansk in the Russian Arctic last week.
A LNG train consists of various components to process, purify, and convert natural gas to liquefied natural gas (LNG).
The module departed from the Penglai Jutal Offshore Engineering (PJOE) yard in Penglai in the Chinese province of Shandong aboard heavy load carrier Hunter Star on 15 January, shipping data and satellite imagery show. Industry sources confirmed to HNN that this shipment concludes module deliveries from China for Train 2.
Earlier in January two modules shipped from the same yard aboard Red Box’s carriers Audax and Pugnax.
Route of Hunter Star (left) and Audax and Pugnax (right) following their departure from the Penglai Jutal Offshore Engineering (PJOE) yard in the Chinese province of Shandong. (Source: Maritime Optima)
Despite a months-long work stoppage by Chinese builders following Western sanctions in 2022, Novatek ultimately managed to secure all modules, including replacing Western turbines with Chinese imports. The modules will now undergo final assembly at the Belokamenka yard outside Murmansk.
The second train could be ready for sail-away this summer. Novatek aims to tow the gravity based structure (GBS) to the Utrenney terminal in Russia in August, explains Ben Seligman, a project specialist for Arctic oil and gas development.
“The main question in my mind would be the status of the LNG membrane storage system within the GBS, given GTT's departure from Russia a year ago,” Seligman cautions.
Gaztransport & Technigaz, or GTT, is a French multinational naval engineering company specializing in membrane containment systems for the transport and storage of liquefied gas.
Significant uncertainty looms
While the delivery of all twelve modules represents a significant step toward completing Train 2, the project’s overall future has become increasingly uncertain following targeted US sanctions. Novatek’s European, Japanese, and Chinese partners have exited the project under force majeure declarations.
The latest round sanctions bar the purchase and transport of LNG from the project. Thus, questions mount who Novatek will sell its LNG to and aboard which vessels it will deliver it. France’s TotalEnergies announced last week that it will not take receipt of any LNG from the project in 2024.
Novatek may try to sell its LNG at a discount on the spot market to buyers in Asia.
“It is possible that prices for sanctioned Russian LNG would be cheaper than for other supplies, but in this case, Chinese importers would have to resell their cargoes from other suppliers and replace them with Russian supply,” explains Jason Feer, global head of business intelligence at Poten & Partners.
“India would be in a similar situation, though they are more price sensitive so discounts on Russian supply may be more attractive."
The project’s future may in part hinge on the ability of Novatek's partners, including China’s state-owned oil major, the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), to secure sanction exemptions.
“But China and India may only be able to take Russian cargoes if they can get waivers of sanctions or if ship owners are willing to breach sanctions, which I doubt most are willing to do,” concludes Feer.
Production of LNG at the facility began about 3 weeks ago and storage tanks will reach capacity by the end of January according to industry reporting.
“It remains to be seen how Seapeak, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) and Dynagas [operators of the Arc7 LNG carrier fleet. Journ.note] will react once the first cargo is ready to be loaded,” confirms Mehdy Touil, a LNG Operations Specialist, who in the past worked as a senior operator for Novatek’s Yamal project.
The ongoing expansion of the Russia-Ukraine War to include targeting Russian oil and gas infrastructure, including Novatek’s massive Ust-Luga fuel export complex over the weekend, could also complicate the future of the company’s Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2 projects.
A dozen shipments across 15 months
The departure of Hunter Star concludes a 15 months effort to transport a dozen modules to Murmansk in the face of a growing sanction regime. The first modules for Train 2 departed from Bomesc Offshore Engineering in China in October 2022, followed by additional shipments throughout the summer and fall of 2023.
In contrast, the delivery of fourteen modules for Train 1 – all constructed and delivered prior to sanctions in 2022 – took only seven months, from August 2021 until February 2022.
Image showing the twelve heavy load carriers that carried modules for Arctic LNG 2. (Photos by Kees Torn, Berg Knot, and Piet Sinke on Flickr.com under CC BY-SA 2.0 and courtesy of Red Box)
Without ice classification Hunter Star is required to take the long way around to Murmansk, either through the Suez Canal or rounding the Cape of Good Hope, rather than traveling the wintry Northern Sea Route (NSR).
In contrast, their polar ice classes permit Audax and Pugnax to travel through the Arctic, with both ships expected to enter the Northern Sea Route this week.
All three vessels are scheduled to arrive at Belokamenka in February with teams preparing skidding and integration operations for the modules on the gravity based structure, sources at the yard tell HNN.
In total a dozen heavy load carriers participated in the transport of the modules for Train 1 and Train 2, HNN data shows.
Shipments of Modules for Train 1 of Arctic LNG 2 by yard, module number, vessel and date. (Source: Author’s own work)
While several Western shipping companies, including Norwegian GPO and Dutch Boskalis, ceased transporting cargo following sanctions, other operators, such as Chinese COSCO and Dutch-Singaporean Red Box, continue lifting modules.
Shipments of Modules for Train 2 of Arctic LNG 2 by yard, module number, vessel and date. (Source: Author’s own work)
And Novatek will likely continue to rely on their services. This year may see the transport of initial modules for the final production line of Arctic LNG 2. The first four modules for Train 3 are nearing completion, satellite imagery shows.
Originally Novatek had planned to construct all fourteen modules for the final train on site at the Novatek Murmansk Plant, but project documents show that at least four modules will now originate in China.
Modules TMR-001 through TMR-004 for Train 3 of Arctic LNG 2 at the Wison yard on 16 January 2024. (Source: Planet.com)
Modules from five yards across China
The construction of Arctic LNG 2 modules – each the size of half a soccer pitch and weighing up to 14,000 tons – is carried out across five yards in China. Each train, or production line, consists of fourteen modules, a Novatek diagram shows.
Diagram showing the arrangement of the fourteen modules on the GBS. (Source: Novatek pre-commissioning, commissioning & start-up execution plan)
After arriving at Belokamenka modules are skidded onto a gravity-based structure and integrated to form the production line. Satellite images of the construction yard illustrate the final assembly of the fourteen modules into Train 1.
Annotated satellite image of Train 1 of Arctic LNG 2 showing each of the fourteen modules June 2023. (Source: Airbus)
For Train 1 all fourteen modules were constructed across China, for Train 2 two modules are produced locally at Belokamenka, with a dozen modules originating in China.
Novatek documents outline the distribution of modules across five Chinese yards.
Bomesc Offshore Engineering was awarded the largest construction contracts for module design and construction with a total contract value of over 6 billion Yuan (US$840m), across three contracts originating in July and November 2019 and June 2021. In total Bomesc was contracted to construct six modules, three for Train 1 and three for Train 2.
The contract comprises modules TMP-002, TMP-005, and TMR-005.
Penglai Jutal Offshore Engineering was also contracted for a total of six modules for Trains 1 and 2; though the modules are slightly smaller than those by Bomesc. The three PJOE modules are compressor modules TMS-003 and TMS-004 and power generation module TMS-005.
Details on module fabrication in China. (Source: Novatek pre-commissioning, commissioning & start-up execution plan)
Wison Offshore Engineering Module Development was contracted to manufacture eight modules, four for each train. The four pipe rack modules (TMR-001 to TMR-004) represent the core of each train and were thus the first modules to be shipped for Train 1 in August and September 2021.
Qingdao McDermott Wuchuan Module Development was contracted to construct three liquefaction modules for the project, with two modules bound for Train 1 and the third bound for Train 2. It constructed modules TMP-003 and TMP-004 for Train 1 and TMP-003 for Train 2.
Cosco (Qidong) Offshore Company constructed a total of three modules for Train 1 and Train 2. These include modules TMS-001 and TMP-001.
Modules TMS-003 to TMS-005 for Train 1 at the PJOE yard. (Source PJOE)
Redesigning the final module
Following Western sanctions Novatek was forced to redesign module 1-TMS-005, which houses the power supply.
A key challenge was the lack of LM9000 gas turbines by supplier Baker Hughes. The American company delivered four out of seven turbines before sanctions kicked in.
As a result Novatek was forced to modify the configuration of Train 1 and completely redesign Train 2.
Satellite images throughout 2023 and from the loading of Hunter Star indicate that work on the original TMS-005 module for Train 2 was abandoned and instead a new module, likely a modified version of TMS-005 to accommodate the Chinese electric motors, was constructed between May 2023 and January 2024.
The original TMS-005 for Train 2 currently remains at the PJOE yard, while Hunter Star loaded the apparent replacement module.
PJOE yard on 14 January 2024 showing loading of the new TMS-005 module under way. (Source: Planet.com)
“There have been various modifications on TMS-003/4/5 to accommodate the electric motors and remove all the piping accessories related to the canceled LM9000s,” confirms an industry source familiar with developments at the Belokamenka yard.
The startup of Train 1 and the likely completion of Train 2 in 2024 indicate that thus far Novatek has been able to overcome the logistical and engineering challenges created by expanding US sanctions.
However, the question remains at which point the costs associated with repeatedly re-designing and re-engineering different aspects of the project become too great for Novatek to continue pushing ahead.
Russian hydrocarbon (Oil and Gas and Coal) Industry: News #4
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owais.usmani wrote:“The main question in my mind would be the status of the LNG membrane storage system within the GBS, given GTT's departure from Russia a year ago,” Seligman cautions.
...
the project’s overall future has become increasingly uncertain following targeted US sanctions. Novatek’s European, Japanese, and Chinese partners have exited the project under force majeure declarations.
The latest round sanctions bar the purchase and transport of LNG from the project. Thus, questions mount who Novatek will sell its LNG to and aboard which vessels it will deliver it. France’s TotalEnergies announced last week that it will not take receipt of any LNG from the project in 2024.
Novatek may try to sell its LNG at a discount on the spot market to buyers in Asia.
“It is possible that prices for sanctioned Russian LNG would be cheaper than for other supplies, but in this case, Chinese importers would have to resell their cargoes from other suppliers and replace them with Russian supply,” explains Jason Feer, global head of business intelligence at Poten & Partners.
“India would be in a similar situation, though they are more price sensitive so discounts on Russian supply may be more attractive."
The project’s future may in part hinge on the ability of Novatek's partners, including China’s state-owned oil major, the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), to secure sanction exemptions.
“But China and India may only be able to take Russian cargoes if they can get waivers of sanctions or if ship owners are willing to breach sanctions, which I doubt most are willing to do,” concludes Feer.
Production of LNG at the facility began about 3 weeks ago and storage tanks will reach capacity by the end of January according to industry reporting.
“It remains to be seen how Seapeak, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) and Dynagas [operators of the Arc7 LNG carrier fleet. Journ.note] will react once the first cargo is ready to be loaded,” confirms Mehdy Touil, a LNG Operations Specialist, who in the past worked as a senior operator for Novatek’s Yamal project.
This article is pretty stupid. There are Chinese companies which make membrane tanks for LNG with their own IP. There is no need to use French company GTT's technology at all. As for the US sanctions the Chinese will just find ways to go around them. Chinese natural gas pipelines and gasification facilities are owned by PipeChina. Not CNOOC or CNPC. The Chinese recently split their natural gas transmission, from the exploration, and the consumer sales. They will just do like they do with Iranian oil. Some Chinese company no one ever heard of before will buy the natural gas from Russia and put it into their gas system. And good luck using US sanctions on PipeChina or the Chinese gas consumers. I doubt the Chinese will take a direct threat to their gas infrastructure peacefully.
As for LNG ships. The Chinese can build those just fine. They built several (4) for Yamal LNG. But stupidly for this project they decided to order them from South Korea instead. And it's not like the South Koreans are sanctioning sales or construction of ships to Russia. They aren't. The problem is the SWIFT sanctions make financial transactions between Russia and South Korea difficult and good luck using any US/European/Japanese components in them.
Do these people think that the French and Japanese are just going to keep their Arc7 LNG tankers if they lose access to the Yamal or Arctic LNG 2 projects? These ships are basically useless except for getting natural gas from Russia. And they cost a boatload of money. So what do these people think will happen? The same thing that happened to those oil tanker ships which lost their business because of Western sanctions of Russian oil. They will find a shell company in the Middle East, India, or whatever and move them there. These people are really stupid. As if the ship owners will lose hundreds of millions because of US sanctions. Some of those ships are even partly owned by Chinese company COSCO for example. They won't just take a hit to their balance sheet without fighting over it.
Finally, even if those ships cannot be used they can always build more.
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short term solutions. NATzO has never been the center of the universe.
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For problems like that stuff like Gold was developed.The problem is the SWIFT sanctions make financial transactions between Russia and South Korea difficult
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Why is Russia funding Ukraine through gas transit revenues anyway? And sending cheap energy to someone who's supplying a combatant against them with weapons and huge monetary aid. This is just bonkers.
Gazprom delivering 42 mln cubic meters of gas to Europe through Ukraine via Sudzha
The volume stood at 42.4 mln cubic meters on January 24
MOSCOW, February 25. /TASS/. The volume of Russian gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine is 42 mln cubic meters per day, a Gazprom spokesman told reporters.
"Gazprom continues to supply Russian gas for transit through Ukrainian territory via the Sudzha gas pumping station in an amount approved by Ukraine. The volume is 42 mln cubic meters for February 25. A request for transit via the Sokhranovka gas pumping station was rejected," he said.
The volume stood at 42.4 mln cubic meters on January 24.
The transit line through Ukraine remains the only route for Russian gas supplies to western and central European countries. Pumping through the Nord Stream pipeline was completely suspended. Gas supplies via Turkish Stream and Blue Stream are intended for Turkey and southern and southeastern European countries.
In May 2022, the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine said it would suspend the flow of gas to Europe via the Sokhranovka transit point due to force majeure as the company allegedly was unable to control the Novopskov gas compressor station in the Lugansk People’s Republic. However, the Russian gas giant did not see any proof of force majeure.
In the fall of 2022, Ukraine’s Naftogaz company filed a petition for arbitration with the International Arbitration Court against Gazprom for allegedly being late with its payment for gas transportation services through Ukraine. Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller stated that the Russian company considered Naftogaz’s arbitration to be illegitimate. Meanwhile, Russia may impose sanctions against Naftogaz in the event of further unfair actions by the Ukrainian company and any relations with Naftogaz will be impossible.
https://tass.com/economy/1751209
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Why is Russia funding Ukraine through gas transit revenues anyway? And sending cheap energy to someone who's supplying a combatant against them with weapons and huge monetary aid. This is just bonkers.
The Russians have contracts and they honour their contracts... so it is really funny that the west decided that long term contracts were bad and that spot price purchases were the way to go...
The energy they supply is not so cheap any more and the Russians make good money from the energy sales... it fills a gap while they shift to supplying Asia and the rest of the world with energy, for which they earn more money, though with higher delivery costs they will still undercut the greedy American suppliers.
The whole point of cheap gas for Europe was to encourage European customers to use gas because it was cheap and once the infrastructure is in place it is very convenient and easy to access.
They made money through volume sales rather than very high profit margins from fewer customers...
Of course the western actions flipped that on its head, the gas is now expensive and the customers who have no alternative are paying rather high prices for energy so they probably actually make more money, but deliver a lot less product.
Their profit margin is much higher.
But gas production isn't like a conveyor belt, you can't just turn gas production off and expect it all to turn back on again later... they are building resources to liquefy the material and are diverting production in different directions, but ultimately they will be building new pipelines to Asia and China, and probably looking to use more gas for themselves too.
When this conflict ends I hope the west realises that things wont snap back to the way they were and everyone goes back to normal.
Russia lost a customer in the west and has been working and spending their own money and resources to find other customers that treat them with a bit of respect... when this conflict ends I rather suspect Russian supplies of gas and oil wont suddenly flip back to the west like a trained dog.
The west will buy at market prices at the spot prices they so love and if there is no excess capacity for the EU market then there is no gas.
Go buy American gas.
Check that it is not farts though... they have no problem selling those.
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Ukraine is ready to continue the transit of Russian gas - Shmygal
“If European countries act either as a consortium, or if one of the European partners acts as a transit country for their gas, we are ready to provide such a service,” said the Prime Minister of Ukraine
5:09 PM · Mar 4, 2024
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Financial Times: Nord Stream operator demanded €400 million from insurers after terrorist attack on gas pipelines
The British company Lloyd's and the American Arch Insurance will be held liable for non-payment of damage from the explosions.
In the article, as in the countries of the collective West, they pretend that they do not know who blew up the gas pipeline. Probably, they will try to hush up the matter, because the EU countries (which suffered the most from the shortage of Russian gas) are already stopping the investigation, without pointing out the customers and contractors, since they will come out on their own.
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Official data shows that crude imports from Moscow jumped more than 40% year-on-year in January.
Sales of Russian oil to India have continued to rise in 2024, despite the pressure from Western sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine conflict, according to trade data from New Delhi’s Commerce Ministry.
The figures show that India’s crude imports in January were worth $4.48 billion, a 14% increase month-on-month, and up 41% from a year ago.
According to the data, Moscow’s deliveries once again outpaced those from India’s traditional Middle Eastern suppliers. Iraq’s deliveries remained stable at $2.54 billion, while deliveries from Saudi Arabia, once India’s top crude supplier, plunged by 31% to $1.55 billion. Shipments from the United Arab Emirates stood at $980 billion.
India, Asia’s third-biggest economy and the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, increased oil purchases from Russia after Moscow was forced to reroute supplies to Asia in response to the Western sanctions. As a result, Russia emerged as the biggest crude supplier to India in 2023, accounting for more than 30% of its imports, mainly due to discounts offered by Moscow in light of the $60-per-barrel price cap imposed by Western nations.
While the discounts have been gradually cut from around $30 per barrel to the current $4-6 per barrel, India’s demand for Russian crude has remained stable even after the most recent US sanctions on ship-owners carrying Russian oil above the price cap. Sanctions caused payment issues and a slight drop in crude sales at the end of last year.
Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri recently said his country will continue to import Russian oil as long as it is offered favorable prices. Speaking to RT on the sidelines of India Energy Week, he noted that while the West “decided to weaponize” Russian oil by targeting it with sanctions, India has no plans to do so and “will import from wherever we can,” because crude oil is “the biggest item in India’s import basket.”
According to a Bloomberg report last month, India’s major oil refiners – Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum – have been in talks over new agreements for crude deliveries with Russian energy giant Rosneft, aiming to sign deals for a steady, long-term supply instead of one-off purchases.
https://www.rt.com/india/594474-russia-india-oil-supply/
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22 Mar 2024
Gazprom starts 5,000-km Eastern Gas Supply System project
MOSCOW. March 22 (Interfax) - Gazprom is beginning to implement the huge project to build the Eastern Gas Supply System (EGSS), which will stretch over more than 5,000 km.
The EGSS project was brought up for discussion by the Russian gas giant's management board for the first time on Thursday, and the report will subsequently be presented to the company's board of directors.
"The main purpose of the project is to develop the Eastern Gas Supply System of the Russian Federation in regions of Eastern Siberia and the Far East," the government said in the updated national territorial planning scheme in the area of federal transport (as regards pipeline transport), which now includes this project.
The project calls for the comprehensive development of gas transport capacity in Eastern Russia and its subsequent connection with gas infrastructure in the western part of the country, Gazprom said in a press release.
"This will ensure additional reliability and flexibility of gas supplies to domestic consumers and open up new opportunities to develop the gasification of regions in Siberia and the Far East," the company said.
President Vladimir Putin earlier issued orders to bring piped natural gas service to regions that did not previously have access to it, including Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Jewish Autonomous Region.
The EGSS will run from the northern part of the Yamal Peninsula in the Arctic to Khabarovsk Territory in Russia's Far East and will have design capacity to carry 28.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year, according to the territorial planning scheme.
Siberian line
The gas transport corridor begins on the Yamal Peninsula, in the Yamalsky district of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, and runs through the Nadymsky and Purovsky districts and Noyabrsk. In the Khanty Mansi Autonomous District, it crosses the Surgutsky district, Kogalym and Nizhnevartovsky district, and in Tomsk Region it runs from the Alexandrovsky to the Zyryansky district. Gas pipelines have already been laid from the central districts of Yamalo-Nenets to Tomsk Region, which here the project will involve expanding the gas transport system.
In the Kuznetsk Basin, the planned pipeline only crosses the Mariinsky municipal district. In Krasnoyarsk Territory, pipeline has been laid from the Bolsheuluisky to the Nizhneingashsky district, and in the Yemelyanovsky district, approaching Krasnoyarsk, near the village of Pamyati 13 Bortsov.
The government press service said a month ago after a meeting between Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and Krasnoyarsk Governor Mikhail Kotyukov that Gazprom was conducting design and survey work on the gas pipeline section to Krasnoyarsk.
In Irkutsk Region, the pipeline runs from the Taishetsky district to the outskirts of Irkutsk (Usolsky and Slyudyansky districts). Gazprom's Kovykta field, the starting point of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, is also located in Irkutsk Region.
Eastern line
Another part of the EGSS is a connector between the Power of Siberia and Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipelines that will run across Amur Region (Seryshevsky-Arkharinsky districts), the Jewish Autonomous Region (Obluchensky, Birobidzhansky and Smidovichsky districts) and Khabarovsk Territory (Amursky, Nanaisky and Khabarovsky districts).
In an article in the Energy Policy journal in January, Novak called this section one of the first stages of the EGSS.
"The gradual implementation of the System of Trunk Gas Pipelines Eastern Gas Supply System project, in the first stage of which there are plans to connect the Power of Siberia and Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok trunk pipelines, has begun, and the subsequent stages call for the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 trunk gas pipeline," Novak said.
"Design and survey work is now underway for the construction of the Belogorsk-Khabarovsk gas pipeline stretching about 830 km from the Amur Gas Processing Plant to the tie-in to the system of the Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok trunk gas pipeline near Khabarovsk. Completion of construction is planned for 2029," Novak said at the time.
This connector will essentially link the Yakutsk and Sakhalin gas production centers, increasing the reliability of gas supplies for the whole region. Gazprom's Chayanda field, the foundation of the Yakutsk production center, is expected to reach full design capacity in 2024.
Gazprom, meanwhile, has also announced the start of the first phase of the project, involving the connection of the Power of Siberia and Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipelines. "Construction of the Belogorsk-Khabarovsk section of the Eastern Gas Supply System began in 2024 for this purpose," Gazprom said. Design and survey work is also underway on other sections of the system.
Technology
Gazprom might use innovative pipes intended for a higher operating pressure of 150 atmospheres (14.7 Mpa) made from higher strength steel to build the new pipeline system. All Russian pipe plants have the competency to manufacture new-generation large-diameter pipes from K70 steel.
Using pipes that can handle higher pressure will make it possible to build pumping stations further apart, which will reduce the cost of the project.
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/100656/
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The special military operation is proceeding as usual, the front is slowly but steadily creeping further and further west from long-suffering Donetsk. Washington, to the great joy of the Kyiv regime, recently voted to allocate a new package of military assistance, however, it almost immediately became clear that not the entire amount would go to Ukraine, with a bunch of reservations, but we will leave this question to the financiers. In the prism of what is happening, we are interested in the speech of Tobias Billström. The head of the Swedish Foreign Ministry, commenting on the European vision of the current bleak processes on the Ukrainian battlefield, said that the European Union is determined to continue to help Kyiv to the best of its ability and is therefore considering the possibility of including a complete ban on the import of Russian liquefied gas in the next, 14th package of sanctions.
This is really interesting and important.
We need to start with the fact that the collective West either has not come up with new levers of influence on geopolitical competitors it does not like, or indeed continues to be captivated by delusions that in the modern world it is possible to strangle a more or less large state with a purely sanctions rope. This trick did not work even with a small, poor and totally resource- and energy-scarce North Korea, which continues to develop and pump up its army. There is nothing to say about Iran : the whole world has seen its successes in the field of military industry in recent years, and some have even been able to feel it. All previous attempts to bring down the Russian economy were unsuccessful; the real sector absorbs all available labor and mineral resources, and the key parameter is that our military-industrial complex, boiling with oil and bursting with sparks, did not strangle all other industries. Residential and infrastructure construction continues, roads are being built, tunnels are being made in the Sayan Mountains, the BAM continues to be laid out in the depths of the taiga ores, and much more. The ruble is strong, unemployment is at its lowest historical point, however, inflation is quite high and prices are rising, but here we must always remember that the previous 13 sanctions packages, as intended by their creators, were supposed to bring down our economy, tear it to shreds. So that in stores there are empty shelves, at gas stations there is gasoline by the hour and coupons, against this background there will be a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Crimea, Donbass , or even a parade of sovereignties, as was the case in the early 90s.
Fortunately, none of the above happened, but our sworn partners do not give up hopes and attempts. The introduction of an embargo on the import of Russian LNG, of course, will not knock out the domestic economy, but - it must be admitted - it will still have certain unpleasant consequences.
Let's understand the basic numbers, objects and trends.
The global liquefied natural gas market is one of the fastest growing, which is due to constant demand, the possibility of price and geographical maneuvering when making supplies and, as a result, high margins. Russia in this historic marathon holds fourth place with a market share of eight percent, behind the United States, which has made a colossal leap over the past year, as well as Australia and Qatar . The latter's production lines operate practically without reserve in the interests of the markets of the Asia-Pacific region. Qatar still manages to supply some LNG to Europe , but categorically refuses to increase these volumes, no matter how much Brussels begs.
The liquefied gas sector is a very young area for our country, and only four enterprises are currently operating in this area. The largest ones are Yamal LNG , the Far Eastern offshore platform Sakhalin-2 and smaller enterprises, namely Cryogas-Vysotsk in the Baltic and the Portovaya LNG station located in Ust-Luga.
Arctic LNG 2 is currently under construction, but after Washington declared a personal vendetta on the project, the commissioning of the second and third production lines is openly stalled for a number of objective reasons, primarily due to the massive refusal of suppliers and contractors - their literally blackmailing the governments of a number of European countries. One of the main difficulties was the critical shortage of polar gas carriers, which were built at South Korean shipyards and which the United States directly prohibited from selling to Russia or third parties.
Available capacities allowed Russia to produce and export the following volumes of products:
- 2020 - 30.7 / 29.6 billion cubic meters;
- 2021 - 30.5 / 29.6 billion cubic meters;
- 2022 - 33.5 / 32.9 billion with the obligatory clause that the target was to reach the level of 49 billion cubic meters of production, those same sanctions worked.
Based on the results of 2023, Russia is the second main supplier of gas to the European Union - our share is almost 20 percent, and here we are also inferior to the States, which in recent years have aggressively taken over 48 percent of LNG imports.
If the import ban is nevertheless introduced, this will create certain difficulties for the Baltic factories and the Yamal line . For the simple reason that they were originally built for the European market. At the same time, keeping in mind the processes that accompanied previous bans on the import of Russian pipeline gas, Western analysts predict a redirection of flows to the east along the Northern Sea Route. Naturally, this process will not be instantaneous; moreover, the reversal is hampered by the mentioned shortage of ice-class tankers, which will lead to certain losses.
More on them below, but for now let’s add that over the last two years, gas consumption in Europe has fallen exactly by the volume of Russian imports, namely by 120 billion cubic meters. That is, it was not possible to find other suppliers - and Brussels put its own industry under the knife. Russian believers in the almighty West can be in the world of their own dreams, but European energy workers, against the backdrop of promises to introduce a ban on imports, write directly: the Old World expects that Russian LNG will go to Asia , thereby “squeezing out” a similar volume from there back to the European market. Naturally, at a higher price, but this fact is usually hidden behind brackets.
We don’t particularly care how much the European Union will overpay for Australian or Qatari LNG in the coming years - let’s talk about our financial pot.
According to Western agencies, in the first three quarters of 2023, Russian manufacturers lost an average of 41 percent of profits. Considering that Gazprom alone contributes more than three trillion rubles in federal and local taxes to the budget per year, one can roughly imagine the tax arrears.
NOVATEK , the main shareholder of the largest LNG projects, published tax statistics for the fiscal year 2023. The company (excluding income tax) paid more than 145 billion rubles in mineral extraction tax, 7.2 billion in property tax and 517 million in other taxes. Provided that the replacement construction of ice gas carriers is in full swing at the Zvezda plant, this year we can at least expect the launch of the second production line at Arctic LNG 2, that is, contributions to the budget will definitely not collapse.
As a summary, I would like to say that in the current existential confrontation between Russia and the collective West, one should not fall into mischief. The sophisticated and vile blows dealt to us have their price both for companies and for the state budget. Fortunately for us, the country’s margin of safety turned out to be many times higher than what the chorus of Western financial and military advisers predicted. We will survive everything and win - today this is no longer propaganda, but a medical fact.
https://ria.ru/20240423/zapad-1941584809.html
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In the winter it is not viable to send the gas to Asia via the Northern Sea Route.
Contrary to the article's claims the Arctic LNG 2 project itself seems to be proceeding as expected. The problem is indeed the lack of ice class tankers.
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During that period a lot of cars were converted to LPG, which involved a gas bottle being installed in the boot and a switch to alternate between the petrol tank and the LNG bottle enabled you to use rather less petrol.
I would say vehicles using diesel or petrol could be converted to LNG... including aircraft... if you have too much and if you stop extracting it it might not keep flowing then why not use it up. Set up a few large energy intensive factories near where the gas is extracted and set them up using gas for energy... Russia is a cold country so the byproduct of heat would be useful too...
Develop some sort of carbon scrubbing system that extracts the carbon monoxide and you should be left with pure H20, which is also useful too.
Develop technology to extract solid carbon from carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide and a lot of fossil fuels could continue to be used for a while while cleaner technologies can be perfected and improved.
In fact solid carbon is rather useful so being able to extract it from gas would actually be profitable too.
Carbon fibre and carbon nanotubes and valuable...
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Exclusive: India's Reliance to buy Russian oil in roubles, sources say
NEW DELHI, May 28 (Reuters) - India's Reliance Industries (RELI.NS), opens new tab, operator of the world's biggest refining complex, has signed a one-year deal with Russia's Rosneft to buy at least 3 million barrels of oil a month in roubles, four sources aware of the matter told Reuters.
The shift to rouble payments follows Russian President Vladimir Putin's push for Moscow and its trading partners to find alternatives to the Western financial system to facilitate trade despite U.S. and European sanctions.
A term deal with Rosneft also helps privately run Reliance to secure oil at discounted rates at a time when the OPEC+ group of oil producers is expected to extend voluntary supply cuts beyond June.
The OPEC+ group comprising the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia is due to discuss the output cuts in an online meeting on June 2.
India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, has become the biggest buyer of seaborne Russian crude since the West halted purchases and imposed sanctions against Moscow in the aftermath of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. India has also paid for Russian crude in rupees, dirhams and Chinese yuan.
State-owned Indian refiners, meanwhile, have been tapping spot markets for Russian oil because they were unable to finalise term supplies for this year, Reuters has reported previously.
"India is a strategic partner for Rosneft oil company," the Russian company said in an emailed response to questions from Reuters, adding that it does not comment on confidential agreements with partners.
"Cooperation with Indian companies includes projects in the field of production, oil refining and trading of oil and petroleum products."
Rosneft also said that commercial approaches to determining the value of sold crude are the same for all companies, regardless of whether they are private or state-controlled.
Reliance did not respond to a request for comment.
Under the terms of the deal, which took effect at the beginning of the Indian financial year from April 1, Reliance will buy two cargoes of about one million barrels of Urals crude with an option to buy four more each month at a discount of $3 a barrel to the Middle East Dubai benchmark, the sources said.
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Industrial production of hydrocarbons has begun in section 3A of the Achimov deposits of the Urengoy field
Today in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug) industrial production of natural gas and gas condensate began in section 3A of the Achimov depositsUrengoyskoye field.
The start of the work of the production complex was given by the Chairman of the Management Board of PJSC GazpromAlexey Millerand Chairman of the BoardPJSC Gazprom NeftAlexander Dyukov.
The Urengoy field is one of the largest in the world in terms of initial hydrocarbon reserves. Located in the Nadym-Pur-Taz region of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, a traditional hydrocarbon production region in Russia. Gas production at the field began in 1978.
Gazprom is conducting full-scale development of the field. To ensure the most efficient development of its reserves, the company is consistently involving in development the Achimov deposits, which are deeper than the traditional Cenomanian and Valanginian deposits.
The Achimov deposits of the Urengoy field are located at a depth of about 3400–3800 m at an abnormally high reservoir pressure (more than 600 atmospheres). They are also distinguished by their complex geological structure and low rock permeability. Advanced technologies are required to develop such deposits.
The operator of the development of section 3A of the Achimov deposits of the Urengoy field is Gazprom Neft. To work on the project, the company, using a Russian software package, created a three-dimensional geological model of the field site. A pilot industrial work program was formed. Based on their results, effective drilling and production technologies were selected - using wells with an industry-record length of horizontal sections (up to 1800 m) and the method of multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. More than 100 options for developing the site were calculated and the optimal option for combining it with the existing infrastructure of the field operated byGazprom Dobycha Urengoy.
Pilot work was carried out using mobile separation units and a condensate stabilization unit. This made it possible to extract hydrocarbons for processing and delivery to consumers even before the start of industrial exploitation of the field site.
Complex technological equipment for the development was delivered immediately in a block-modular design - in maximum factory readiness. This made it possible to reduce installation time and implement the project in a short time - in just three years.
The main production complex includes over 100 production and auxiliary facilities for the reception, preparation and shipment of hydrocarbons. Key facilities are gas pre-treatment and condensate stabilization units. All main equipment was produced at Russian enterprises.
Annual production at section 3A of the Urengoy field will amount to 5 billion cubic meters. m of gas and 1.5 million tons of gas condensate.
The produced gas is intended for supply to the Unified Gas Supply System of Russia. Stable gas condensate enters the Urengoyskaya oil pumping station and then into the Urengoy - Pur-Pe oil and condensate pipeline. Unstable gas condensate is sent to the Urengoy condensate preparation plant for transport, and a wide fraction of light hydrocarbons is sent to the Surgut condensate stabilization plantGazprom Pererabotki.
“Working with deep deposits allows us to obtain additional volumes of hydrocarbons. This is natural gas for supply to consumers in Russia. These are liquid hydrocarbons, which are valuable raw materials for petrochemicals and oil refining. Thanks to such high-tech projects as section 3A of the Urengoy field, we, together with you, are fulfilling our task of responsible and rational development of the resources of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. And most importantly, we ensure the country’s energy security and its technological sovereignty,” said Alexey Miller.
“We began full-scale production at section 3A of the Urengoy field much earlier than standard industry deadlines for such projects. The key to the Achimov deposits of the field was innovative engineering and digital solutions, as well as Gazprom Neft’s competence in developing complex reserves. During the implementation of this project, we gained new valuable experience and understanding of the geological features of the region. This will help us when working with other Achimov deposits in Western Siberia,” said Alexander Dyukov.
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NOVATEK sent its specialists to the Zvezda Shipbuilding Complex for the completion of 2 gas tankers of the Arctic LNG-2 project
Moscow, May 29 - Neftegaz.RU news agency. NOVATEK sent its engineers and installation workers to the Zvezda Shipbuilding Complex to help complete the construction of the Arc7 ice-class gas tanker to export liquefied natural gas ( LNG ) from the Arctic LNG-2 project. Kommersant
reported this on May 29, 2024, citing sources familiar with the situation.
NOVATEK's labor landing on Zvezda
According to the publication:
- NOVATEK sent about 200 engineers and installation workers to the Zvezda Shipyard, mainly from the Arctic LNG-2 project, to help complete the construction of Arc7 ice-class gas tankers.
- specialists were sent to the shipyard more than a month ago due to an acute shortage of labor at the construction site,
- Probably, NOVATEK employees will help with electrical installation and commissioning work, welding work has already been completed,
- the first 2 gas tankers are fully equipped with cryogenic equipment, which makes it possible to complete their construction and put them into operation (the French Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT) managed to equip these tankers with Mark III membrane-type LNG storage systems before leaving Russia, the way to equip the next gas carriers is still not clear)
- delivery of the first 2 tankers is tentatively expected at the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025. respectively.
- The fact that the gas tanker Alexey Kosygin could be transferred for operation in 2024 was said in March 2024 by the Chairman of VEB.RF I. Shuvalov, who visited the Zvezda Shipbuilding Complex.
- Now Kommersant clarifies that this will happen at the end of 2024.
- At the beginning of 2025, NOVATEK may receive the gas tanker Petr Stolypin, but the prospects for the next tankers are unknown.
Arctic LNG-2 and its tankers
The Arctic LNG-2 LNG plant will include 3 technological lines with a total capacity of 19.8 million tons/year of LNG (6.6 million tons/year each) and 1.6 million tons/year of stable gas condensate. Line
1 of the Arctic LNG-2 project began production in December 2023, but LNG shipments have not yet begun due to the lack of gas tankers and US blocking sanctions introduced in November 2023 . With the help of 2 gas tankers, it will be possible to ensure the export of about 2 million tons of LNG from Arctic LNG-2. To export LNG from Arctic LNG-2, NOVATEK contracted 21 Arc7 ice-class gas tankers:
- SSK Zvezda was supposed to build 15 gas tankers,
- South Korean Hanwha Ocean (formerly DSME) - 6 vessels.
- The delivery of vessels and their use for LNG supplies is hampered by numerous US sanctions, which apply not only against Arctic LNG-2, but also:
SSK Zvezda, which builds gas tankers,- Sovcomflot ( SKF ), which will operate the lead tanker being built at SSK Zvezda (i.e. Alexey Kosygin),
- Smart LNG, a joint venture of SCF and NOVATEK, under long-term time charter agreements with Arctic LNG-2 which will operate the remaining 14 gas carriers being built at SSC Zvezda,
- 3 SKF subsidiaries - Azoria Shipping Company Ltd., Elixon Shipping Company Ltd. and Gloria Shipping Company Ltd., which were to purchase 3 of the 6 vessels built at Hanwha Ocean under former SCF contracts.
"Star" tankers
SSK Zvezda was already supposed to deliver the first 5 gas tankers out of 15 to NOVATEK, but their delivery dates were pushed back several times .
In September 2023, the naming ceremony of the gas tanker Alexey Kosygin took place
at the shipyard. Then it was reported that 3 gas tankers were launched for the Arctic LNG-2 project - Alexey Kosygin, Pyotr Stolypin and Sergey Witte, but the degree of their readiness is unknown.
In February 2022, SSK Zvezda reported that by that time metal cutting had begun for the 7th vessel , and keels had been laid for 3 gas tankers (it was they who were launched).
By the time of the visit of Russian President V. Putin in September 2023, the hulls of two more gas tankers, Konstantin Posyet and Viktor Chernomyrdin, were being formed in the dry dock.
In March 2024, Chairman of VEB.RF I. Shuvalov visited the Primorsky Territory, visiting, among other things, SSK Zvezda, where he was assured that the first 5 gas carriers would be put into operation as quickly as possible.
Tankers on Hanwha Ocean
Problems also arose with the 6 gas tankers under construction at Hanwha Ocean.
Gas tankers Pyotr Kapitsa, Lev Landau and Zhores Alferov have been built, but their transfer is hampered by US sanctions. Initially, these ships were built by order of SCF, but Hanwha Ocean terminated
the contract in 2022 due to difficulties with payments. The head of NOVATEK L. Mikhelson said that the contract was being transferred to another shipowner, who remained unknown until February 2024. From the February package of US sanctions it follows that the tankers were built by order of the Cypriot Elixon Shipping, Azoria Shipping and Glorina Shipping, the US Ministry of Finance called them subsidiaries of SCF and included it in the SDN-List. It is noteworthy that on February 1, 2024, they tried to transfer the tanker Petr Kapitsa to the Emirati New Transshipment FZE, but 2 weeks later the re-registration was canceled, and this happened 9 days before the United States imposed blocking sanctions against the previous owner of the vessel, Elixon Shipping. Another 3 tankers - Ilya Mechnikov, Nikolay Semenov and Nikolay Basov - are being built at Hanwha Ocean by order of the Japanese Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL). Previously, MOL complained that delivery was delayed due to a lack of labor at the shipyard, but now Ilya Mechnikov is almost ready. These tankers were not subject to sanctions restrictions, so they can be transferred to the customer, but what MOL will do with them and whether they will be transferred to NOVATEK is not yet clear.
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On Wednesday, it was reported that India’s largest private corporation Reliance Industries and the Russian energy company Rosneft signed a one-year agreement for up to three million barrels of oil per month that will be paid in Russian rubles, putting another nail in the coffin for the US dollar’s hegemony.
The transactions will be handled by India’s HDFC Bank and Russia’s Gazprombank, outside of the Western SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) payment system and immune to the illegal unilateral sanctions placed on Russia by the West.
After the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, Western countries greatly reduced their purchases of Russian oil and gas in a move that was intended, but failed, to cripple the Russian economy.
“Since the Western existential economic war of sanctions [against Russia] began in 2022, India’s imports of Russian oil have soared. In fact, the country’s imports of Russian oil have soared tenfold in just 2023,” explained security and international relations expert Mark Sleboda on Sputnik’s The Critical Hour. “So they are buying Russian oil. They’re [getting] a good price on it, making their products more competitive and Europe isn’t getting that cheap, reliable oil.”
While India’s purchase of Russian oil angered the United States, it has been hesitant to punish India because it sees it as a potential ally in a future war with China.
“The US keeps trying to rope India into fighting China, serving as proxies for it in their future war with China, which means they don’t want to alienate India too much,” Sleboda said.
The decision to make purchases in rubles rather than Indian rupees or US dollars represents another step in de-dollarization that has been spreading across the globe. In the late 1970s, the US dollar represented 85% of global reserve currencies. By 2022, that number had fallen to 58.4%, a trend that has been exacerbated by Western sanctions imposed by Russia and the illegal seizure of Russian assets held in US banks, a decision by the West that had led other world leaders to question the dollar’s dominance.
“Every night I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade on the dollar,” Brazilian President Luiz Inácio-Lula da Silva said during a speech in China last year. “Why can’t we do trade based on our own currencies? Who was it that decided that the dollar was the currency after the disappearance of the gold standard?”
If the US continues on this path, more countries will follow suit, Sleboda predicts. The more the West uses sanctions and payment systems as a weapon in foreign policy, “more of the world’s economy [will slip] outside of their grasp.”
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240531/india-russia-oil-for-rubles-deal-another-sign-of-rapid-dedollarization-1118725665.html
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An opaque legal ruling could, in a roundabout way, soon halt all pipeline deliveries of Russian gas to Austria – and therefore Italy. Coupled with the ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea, the economic consequences for Europe’s second-largest industrial location could be dire.
In late May, an undisclosed European court handed down a ruling that in a roundabout way could force Austria’s main gas company OMV (Österreichische Mineralölverwaltung or Austrian Mineral Oil Administration) to stop paying for Russian gas.
Some background:
This all goes back to the West’s “freezing” of hundreds of billions of Russian foreign assets in 2022. In light of that move, Putin introduced the “gas for roubles” program so that payments and clearing on its gas exports would be under the control of the Russian Central Bank and therefore unable to be frozen or stolen by the West.
The rest at https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/italy-pipes-against-nato-escalation-court-ruling-could-cut-russian-gas-sooner-expected
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The surge has been attributed to increased prices for Urals crude, the outlet has said.
Russia’s oil revenues surged by almost 50% last month compared to a year ago, as crude prices soared and the country continued to adapt to Western sanctions, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.
Moscow’s income from crude sales rose despite international pressure and forecasts of a deficit. Oil-related taxes climbed to 632.5 billion rubles ($7.1 billion) in May, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Russian Finance Ministry data.
Total oil and gas profits grew by 39% to 793.7 billion rubles ($8.9 billion), following progressively increasing prices on Russia’s flagship Urals crude, the country’s key export blend, data showed.
The ministry calculated May taxes based on the Urals price of $74.98 a barrel, up from $58.63 a year ago. Urals’ discount to the global Brent benchmark has declined, despite the $60 per-barrel price cap on Russian oil introduced by the G7 and EU.
The mechanism, along with the EU embargo on Russian seaborne oil, was put in place to reduce Moscow’s export revenues. The sanctions were imposed in December 2022, and in February 2023 were followed by similar restrictions on exports of Russian petroleum products.
In response, Russia has rerouted most of its energy exports to Asia – particularly to India and China, where the country’s oil has been sold well above the West’s price cap.
In May, the Finance Ministry issued a preliminary report on oil and gas revenues to the federal budget which showed that proceeds from energy exports between January and April soared to 11.68 billion rubles ($131.2 million) – a 50.1% rise compared to the same period in 2023.
However, even with an increase in energy profits, the Finance Ministry has proposed to lower the expectations for oil and gas earnings this year to 10.99 trillion rubles ($123.4 billion) from an earlier estimate of 11.5 trillion rubles ($129.2 billion), according to ministry data.
The downward revision comes as Russia expects oil to trade at about $65 per barrel this year compared to a previous projection of $71.30.
https://www.rt.com/business/598856-russia-oil-revenue-surge/
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JohninMK wrote:
The rest at https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/italy-pipes-against-nato-escalation-court-ruling-could-cut-russian-gas-sooner-expected
U-ropean deciders are congenital retards. It is over two years and these f*ckwits are still playing games in an obvious attempt to win stupid prizes. The
idea that these retards can force Russia to export gas to U-rope for nothing is utter cringe. I am sure they will be screeching about how Russia cut them off
when it stops sending gas through the pipes. But this is absurd as they have already accused Russia of cutting off the gas. Putin and others need to
repeat this and often.
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If so here is a post on the projected supply route of Russian coal to a couple of 'stans as well as to the Gulf and India.
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