Russian special military operation in Ukraine #8

Updates

1) There can be no compromise on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and will not be - President Zelensky

2) Governor of Belgorod region confirmed "incident with explosions" at Krasnyi Oktabr village near Belgorod

Russian media: 4 servicemen wounded as result of projectile hit in Belgorod region

3) U.S. believes any movement of Russian forces from around Kyiv is a 'redeployment, not a withdrawal', world should be prepared for continued major offensives on other areas in Ukraine, U.S. official says

4) Peace talks in Istanbul: in exchange for its neutrality, Ukraine wants security guarantees analogues to NATO's article 5 – if attacked, it has a right to demand consultations, and if diplomacy fails, signees of the agreement must provide military aid and "even close the sky"

5) Russian boat pictured today at Antonivsky bridge near Kherson

d_taddei2 wrote:Updates

1) There can be no compromise on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and will not be - President Zelensky

2) Governor of Belgorod region confirmed "incident with explosions" at Krasnyi Oktabr village near Belgorod

Russian media: 4 servicemen wounded as result of projectile hit in Belgorod region

3) U.S. believes any movement of Russian forces from around Kyiv is a 'redeployment, not a withdrawal', world should be prepared for continued major offensives on other areas in Ukraine, U.S. official says

4) Peace talks in Istanbul: in exchange for its neutrality, Ukraine wants security guarantees analogues to NATO's article 5 – if attacked, it has a right to demand consultations, and if diplomacy fails, signees of the agreement must provide military aid and "even close the sky"

5) Russian boat pictured today at Antonivsky bridge near Kherson

See, Ukraine isn't even trying.

They wont negotiate any peace deal. They just get more and more stupid demands.

d_taddei2 wrote:4) Peace talks in Istanbul: in exchange for its neutrality, Ukraine wants security guarantees analogues to NATO's article 5 – if attacked, it has a right to demand consultations, and if diplomacy fails, signees of the agreement must provide military aid and "even close the sky"

Not even Uncle Sham is willing to provide that, let alone Turkey. Zelensky is a certified mental-midget lol!

...As far as Kadyrov's role in the conflict; The best way to describe it is that this is the classic 'good cop, bad cop' strategy. VVP is the 'good cop' to Kadyrov's 'bad cop.'

miketheterrible wrote:See, Ukraine isn't even trying.

They wont negotiate any peace deal.  They just get more and more stupid demands.

Zelensky is too busy snorting cocaine through Hunter Biden's ass crack!

Big_Gazza wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:Updates

1) There can be no compromise on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and will not be - President Zelensky

4) Peace talks in Istanbul: in exchange for its neutrality, Ukraine wants security guarantees analogues to NATO's article 5 – if attacked, it has a right to demand consultations, and if diplomacy fails, signees of the agreement must provide military aid and "even close the sky"

So its confirmed.  The negotiations are going absolutely nowhere and the Ukrop are intent on prolonging their agonies right until the bitter end.

So much for the Chicken Littles fretting and loosing feathers over the idea of Russia "softening its stance".....  

Thanks to Zelensky, Ukropi will now have to attempt to remove Kadyrov's 'kabob' from the back of their throats!

So far we have not had any of the US style dirty tricks with cruise missiles where they send a second one to the same target with
a 15 minute delay to kill the first responders. They pulled this in Belgrade in 1999.

CIA analyst Larry Johnson suggested that the Russian encirclement of Kyiv over the past three weeks was intended to tie up significant Ukrainian resources so that Russia could conduct large-scale operations in the east and south.  Problem solved.

In his opinion, the remaining groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass and Kharkiv will become the next object of Russian efforts.  Eliminating them is the next task.

Sliver of truth from the Americans, well they must analyze soberly even for a moment to allow their puppets to get a bearing on what happens next

Russian troops are redeploying, not withdrawing from Kyiv - Fox News

"Any movement of Russian troops from near Kyiv is a redeployment, not a withdrawal, and the world must be ready for a major offensive in other areas of Ukraine," the US official told the agency.

Arkanghelsk wrote: CIA analyst Larry Johnson suggested that the Russian encirclement of Kyiv over the past three weeks was intended to tie up significant Ukrainian resources so that Russia could conduct large-scale operations in the east and south.  Problem solved.

In his opinion, the remaining groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass and Kharkiv will become the next object of Russian efforts.  Eliminating them is the next task.

Sliver of truth from the Americans, well they must analyze soberly even for a moment to allow their puppets to get a bearing on what happens next

The Donbass army is their most powerful. And the whole Ukrainian and Western leadership know it. Might as well kill it.

Wait.... Shoigu said they will concentrate on the Donbass....
The action will happen on another front: Odessa, Kharkov, Nikolaev or somewhere else.

We ready are seeing huge columns in Nikolayev, huge enormous columns are grouping there, from Mariupol

Huge amount of manpower is moving

From Kiev the highways it seems are being evacuated , men are being regrouped in Izyum

A big attack is coming on Kharkov, Nikolayev, Slavyansk, and Kramatorsk,

In Military theory written by Tukhachevsky , we have seen the modern implementation of deep battle

Mass strikes across the depth of the enemy front

Reinforce success, units were successful in the south, it is those positions which must be strengthened, expand the operation in the axes of most successful breakthroughs

The Kiev and Chernigov groupings can be kept in their cities via loitering munition, missiles, and artillery

The BTGs need to be deployed to the Nikolayev, Kharkov, and Donetsk fronts

Krepost wrote:Wait.... Shoigu said they will concentrate on the Donbass....
The action will happen on another front: Odessa, Kharkov, Nikolaev or somewhere else.

The LDNR front is the priority. All the other targets will open up after the regime army is destroyed here.

I think Kharkov is the second highest priority after the LDNR front.

kvs wrote:

Krepost wrote:Wait.... Shoigu said they will concentrate on the Donbass....
The action will happen on another front: Odessa, Kharkov, Nikolaev or somewhere else.

The LDNR front is the priority.   All the other targets will open up after the regime army is destroyed here.  

I think Kharkov is the second highest priority after the LDNR front.  

But of course

If you read about west Bank liberation campaign of ww2 it was the same

1. Donetsk
2. Kharkov
3. Kiev

The southern steppe operations were the easiest

The truly scary thing for Ukraine now is that Russia changing position really hurts them in defense

Russia will sanitize donetsk quickly

From there what Ukro units stand between Kharkov and Dnipro?

Or even Zaporizhia?

So it could be that Russia phase 1 as indicated by Shoigu was to destroy their supply lines and tire them in their positions they prepared

What stands between Russia and the Dnieper now?

Almost nothing, just a battered VSU in Donetsk

After that the Kiev grouping is not able to conduct any meaningful operations, and most likely the VDV and VKS will keep the ukros tied up there

They will rebuild their supply lines only to lose them again in some weeks

As for the south, I think the Territorial advances in this direction will be faster than most expect

I watched a 10 minute long video by WarGonzo where he filmed various areas of Mariopol from the car he was in.
I also watched many other videos from the cities. Where journalist concentrate on the most heavily devastated districts.

Here are the conclusions I came to upon what I saw on the multitude of videos:
Surprise, surprise:
- Only some parts of Mariopol have sustained apocalyptic damage.
- Many parts have superficial damage
- Many parts seem to be intact or have very little damage
- Very few collapsed buildings (unlike Grozny)
- A lot of smashed windows
- Many partially burned buildings but no structural damage
- Most trees are still standing
- A lot of damaged cars from shrapnel and bullets - most will be repaired
- Few shell holes on city roads - asphalt is in better condition than I expected
- Many people did not evacuate (even though some could)
- Many people have already returned to the city (the safer areas)
- A lot of rubble and garbage (that can be easily removed)

I short:
- Damage is not as bad as portrayed by journalists and reporters (who sensationalize and dramatize everything).
- Only certain areas will need extensive repairs.
- Most damaged buildings are repairable as there is hardly any structural damage - just replace the windows, clean the sooth and a few other chores and people can move back in.
- Unlike Grozny, there is no need to completely build a new city - just lots of repairs to do.

In fact I don't think the decision to surround Kiev was bad at all

The fast advance was about pinning them down and destroying their supply lines, military infrastructure , airforce, and navy

Spreading out was good in this phase, if they had just attack Donetsk from day 1, without softening up Ukraine throughout the depth, The nazis could just reinforce Donetsk all day long

This way, it makes most sense, destroy their logistics and infrastructure for 30 days, now engage the largest grouping of their army after being worn down for a month straight

Attacking the Donbass day 1, and day 30 are too totally different propositions

And the same could be Said of Kharkov, Nikolayev, and Kiev when the time comes

Seems a Tochka-U or some large caliber shell struck a regular residential building in central Donetsk this morning, far from any fighting, military infrastructure etc. So just pure random terror, again, like the earlier one.

Says a lot about UAs priorities.

PS there is this guy on Twitter, "Armchair Warlord" who's been reviewing the OSINT loss-tracker "Onyx" in several long threads and discovered a lot of dubious attributions.

In his latest, he said that out of some 60+ "confirmed" RU BMP-2 losses, only 12 seem to be actually reliably confirmed.

He also noted that the alleged losses just don't make any sense given the actual forces committed and how the battles have been going.

I haven't looked into it in any detail myself so I can't vouch for it, but based on earlier stuff that's come to light it seems reasonable that stuff is highly inflated.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:

PS there is this guy on Twitter, "Armchair Warlord" who's been reviewing the OSINT loss-tracker "Onyx" in several long threads and discovered a lot of dubious attributions.

In his latest, he said that out of some 60+ "confirmed" RU BMP-2 losses, only 12 seem to be actually reliably confirmed.

First of all, why would you rely on Onyx when there's https://lostarmour.info/armour

They are slower, but much more accurate and their discussions talk about location and try to ID the chassis and find pictures before they were destroyed and etc. Backlog is crazy, but there are more people than just one guy with bias.

Armchair Warlord is also not that great, questioning burned down hulls of BMD-3/4 and T-72b3 tanks. Where else could it happen? In Siberia? He can't ID for shit as well.

Check lostarmour, not sure why people forgot it

Krepost wrote:Wait.... Shoigu said they will concentrate on the Donbass....
The action will happen on another front: Odessa, Kharkov, Nikolaev or somewhere else.

I have a feeling that it will be Odessa's turn when the majority of the Ukrainian-Nazi army is defeated at the front. There is no chance that Ukraine will lose only Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast, there will be more. The Russians certainly have a lot of informants and collaborators in that city, Odessa.
I no longer have any dilemmas about the Ukrainian army, and I am convinced that over half of them are Nazis, while the other half is full of retards and lunatics - they should be run over like the first half.
Let no one get angry here, but I have always had a low opinion of Ukrainians. They first proclaimed "their" Orthodox Church, although they never had their own church until the collapse of the USSR. The influence of Western propaganda over the past decades is also responsible for that.

They started eating shit much earlier, almost immediately after the collapse of the USSR. Western Ukraine is the ulcer of Ukraine, an evil that should never have become part of Ukraine. The reason is obvious; religion.

I am with you Podlodka77, These continued artillery and tochka attacks on civilian areas of Donetsk nowhere near military targets or the front is a clear indication of their intent to purely target civilians and cause as many casualties as possible. This to me is a clear evidence that the Azov and Aidar mentality has spread to other parts of their armed forces, and they should all be treated the same. Even if some groups or individuals do not share their beliefs, At the very least they have stood by and allowed fascism to permeate their ranks, and as more and more of their crimes are exposed not just from their own videos and actions but evidence found in liberated areas, the less I feel sympathy for any of them.