Russian special military operation in Ukraine #22

I don't see any push just yet. The focus has been to break the regime forces in Donetsk. But there have been clear moves to
suck up regime forces along a much longer front, which includes the Kherson front. Once the Donetsk bastions crumble, it will
be a race towards the Polish border. I doubt that Nikolaev and Odessa will put up as much resistance as Mriupol. The Kiev
NATzO puppets are burning through too many men. Sure, there will be "teroborona" units, but these are not real soldiers and
are mostly useful for terrorizing civilians.

What makes me wonder, is if we will see another ax of offensive from Belarus.

bandit6 wrote:

ArgentinaGuard wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

calripson wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

The West must be shaking its head while watching how the Kremlin manages this "special military operation". They must be asking: how did it take us almost 50 years to beat these idiots in Cold War?

USA lost with some peasants in Vietnam and until last year could not with the Taliban. Why wouldn't it take him 50 years to beat the USSR?
The big question is how the Russians, who defeated the disciplined Germans in the greatest battles in human history, went down without a fight against the corrupt American shit.

The only reason the USA lost in Vietnam was a lack of political will. If the war had gone on longer Vietnam would have lost. There were also self-imposed rules about going into to the north, kinda like how Russia is trying to wage a brotherly war which will eventually lead to their defeat.

The only thing that can save Russia is that if the war drags on enough, like Afghanistan the west will abandon Ukraine

Ukraine will NEVER be friendly with Russia it's either total war or defeat

That is the only way a minor power can defeat a major power. As the minor power has no ability to attack the power base. BUT the US easily had the power invade Northern Vietnam. But North Vietnams sovereignty was guaranteed by China, and the Korean war proved the US could not defeat China in a land war. Unlike NATO in Ukraine, China and Russia were POURING weapons into Vietnam.

ucmvulcan wrote:

ALAMO wrote:What makes me wonder, is if we will see another ax of offensive from Belarus.

I think that comes later.  I think when Donbass, Odessa and Nikolayevsk direction, and Kharkov are liberated that Putin will, rightly or wrongly, give Zhelensky a chance to negotiate a peace.  If he is wise and Ukrainian neutrality and demilitarization is accepted, Putin ends the war. If Zelensky is stupid and continues blowing smoke out of his ass then I think we see a new drive on Kiev and the Dniepr.

I really don't see this as a viable path. I see these new regions being inducted into Russia and then armies being raised from within to move west and complete the job. I do not see how Russia can fully achieve its goals without 100% of Ukraine. If it leave a small rump state, all it will be is an ultra anti-russian pocket right on Russia borders  which will promptly join NATO. Also none of the sanctions will be lifted so its really pointless. What Russia MAY do is create a small state of "Ukraine" that is a puppet state to fight proxy wars against NATO nations. and is officially "neutral". This "neutral state" will be armed to the teeth and be highly belligerent towards NATO nations. Possibly nuclear armed with tactical nukes. They will make a big show of abrogating the MINSK accords and how NATO failed to live up to its security commitments so it will resume its development of nuclear weapons and once again become a nuclear armed state.

Just to put the current conflict in Ukraine into perspective:

In 1991 Iraq, USA has fired 60,000 rounds for the entire gulf war.

Russia fires this in one day.  

The NATO industrial base is not capable of such production numbers.

Europe is not capable of producing an arsenal capable to stand up to the Russian military.


Expert opinion:
According to ex-US marine corp officer Scott Ritter, the British would run out of ammunition in 2 weeks in a war against Russia. Scott Ritter said they would “not even last 2 weeks because they’d lose their entire army by then.”

According to Scott, NATO has been demilitarized. Even the United States,
According to Scott, has run out of rounds for their most important systems which are meant to break down the russian military — in event of conflict.

Scott says that the Russian military, according to leaked documents by Ukrainian ministry of defense itself — inflicted 250,000 casualties onto the Ukrainians. This is 3x the size of Britain’s entire standing army.

Scott estimates that before the war, no European military would stand in a conflict with the Ukrainian army. He explains that the Ukrainian military would decimate Poland, Germany, Romania, etc.

Having internal knowledge due to his US military background/connections, Scott is aware of the level of support, training and supplies to the Ukrainian military since 2014. Scott describes the pre-2022 Ukrainian military as best combat equipped in Europe with more battle experience than any other army in Europe.

Scott Ritter estimates 15,000 combined casualties for Russia and its allies, this is inline with our previous estimation.

Ukrainians are losing thousands of men without ever seeing a Russian soldier face to face. This is inline with the videos we saw from various Ukrainian units who refused to fight and called on the Ukrainian authorities to pull them out of battle. They said the exact same thing. The casualty ratio between Russia and Ukraine is simply jaw dropping. These are numbers we have not seen in modern history.

Russia is doing this with 200k men, a peace time economy. Russia has not mobilized. Russia has employed 20% of its capability.

One more thing to add: while looking at maps, we only see “small advance” arrows. Small advance arrows accomplish one thing, they demilitarize Ukraine and inflict heavy casualties on the Ukrainians without putting Russian lives at danger. Russia is not on a timed schedule here. They have no reason to rush. Anyone who studied history, especially WW2 battles — is aware that big arrow map moves cost big casualties. Thousands of men die. There’s simply no reason for this. In fact, the longer Russia drags this out, the more they demilitarize Europe and drain the United States military supplies and funds.

At the same time, the Russian military is now the most combat experienced military in the world. The longer this drags on, the more soldiers get combat experience due to rotations. The more pilots get to perfect their skills, navy, intelligence, etc.

No modern military has fought a war even remotely similar to the Ukrainian war. This is not a war where the enemy gets bombed to oblivion by aviation, cities get turned into rubble and soldiers then move in like heroes with minimal resistance— this is ground warfare in its purest form; artillery battles, territorial conquest. This is where individual skills and strategy are crucial.  

The world has not seen anything like this since WW2. Russia will demilitarize Ukraine. Russia will reach its goals. No magical weapon can change that. No one with military background doubts this.

https://t.me/asbmil/4221

Discussing Ukraine. Glenn Diesen interviews Scott Ritter and Alexander Mercouris
https://youtu.be/fD44Eb1xDhE

Spotted in Odessa — Russian flags reading “Odessa is a Russian city”
https://t.me/asbmil/4226

A rather rare Ukrainian BMP-1 with a “Spys” turret captured by the DNR. As far as I know, these weren’t built in significant numbers and weren’t approved for use by the UAF.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/20413

From the fourth military power in the world in 1992, Ukraine has became the West Whore.
The poor are always easy and susceptible to manipulation. Western and russophobic Greek-Catholic Ukraine has become a model for all of Ukraine, that is, to turn the state into a Russophobic and Nazi creation. All credit for this goes to the West.
I still think that it is impossible to make all of Ukraine a "reliable" partner for Russia, all the way from Kiev to the West as a part of Russia. It's a crazy and unnecessary story.
The fact that we mention Nikolaev and Odessa here does not mean that the Russians will go to occupy those cities. I hope they will, but the question is whether that was the original plan. At the end of the day, all the original plans have been scrapped, especially after all the suffering of the last 6+ months.
Perhaps this land corridor to Crimea is enough for the Russians; Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye (the Russians will certainly occupy that city), as well as Kherson. It is not impossible that the Russians are not planning to occupy Kharkov, Nikolaev and Odessa. I have no doubt that even if the Russians take Nikolaev, Odessa and Kharkov (and put them inside of Russia), they will lose at least half of the inhabitants of those cities, because many simply do NOT WANT to live under the Russian flag. The story of "brotherhood" with at least half of the population of Ukraine is meaningless.
Perhaps what I am going to mention may not necessarily become Russia, but these areas should be excluded from the composition of Ukraine; Sumy, Chernigov, Kharkov, Poltava, Odessa, Nikolaev. There is also talk of Krivoy Rog and Dnepropetrovsk. It is not necessary that these areas become Russia immediately, but I think it would be good if they were no longer Ukraine. Anything close to Russia's borders should enter Moscow's gravitational field.


For Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson, everything is already clear - it will be Russia and corridor for Crimea. No matter how much we write about Kharkov, Odessa, Donetsk, etc, it is clear that the most important city for Russians is Sevastopol - because it is.
After the military capitulation of Ukraine, it would be desirable for Russia to set up military bases to the left of the Dnieper, as well as checkpoints in Western Ukraine. Whether the Russians will occupy Odessa or Nikolaev is not that important to me, nor was it (a big mistake was made 100 years ago from that piece of red Lenin shit), but it is important that Ukraine be under the Russian protectorate and with Russian military bases. Only Russian military bases and Russian military presence can bring denazification - that is what I consider necessary.
Russian military presence throughout Ukraine, changing the educational system and restoring the Russian language, abolishing the fictional Ukrainian Church (created after the collapse of the USSR) in pro-Russian areas, the fight against corruption, etc.

Belisarius wrote:

Scott Ritter estimates 15,000 combined casualties for Russia and its allies, this is inline with our previous estimation.

THat is still huge, but only if we take for granted the US based propaganda about how they had <400 men lost in the Desert Storm.
But even if we stick to the same base propaganda, we will see the casualty ratio for the 2003+ invasion as much more on pair, what is even more bizarre as the Iraq was brought to a state of non-existence due to long time embargo and aerial campaign.
Still, this is about a number of yearly road accidents in Russia victims.

mnztr wrote:

ucmvulcan wrote:

ALAMO wrote:What makes me wonder, is if we will see another ax of offensive from Belarus.

I think that comes later.  I think when Donbass, Odessa and Nikolayevsk direction, and Kharkov are liberated that Putin will, rightly or wrongly, give Zhelensky a chance to negotiate a peace.  If he is wise and Ukrainian neutrality and demilitarization is accepted, Putin ends the war. If Zelensky is stupid and continues blowing smoke out of his ass then I think we see a new drive on Kiev and the Dniepr.

I really don't see this as a viable path. I see these new regions being inducted into Russia and then armies being raised from within to move west and complete the job. I do not see how Russia can fully achieve its goals without 100% of Ukraine. If it leave a small rump state, all it will be is an ultra anti-russian pocket right on Russia borders  which will promptly join NATO. Also none of the sanctions will be lifted so its really pointless. What Russia MAY do is create a small state of "Ukraine" that is a puppet state to fight proxy wars against NATO nations. and is officially "neutral". This "neutral state" will be armed to the teeth and be highly belligerent towards NATO nations. Possibly nuclear armed with tactical nukes. They will make a big show of abrogating the MINSK accords and how NATO failed to live up to its security commitments so it will resume its development of nuclear weapons and once again become a nuclear armed state.  

Well if you think about it, really think, then yes there exists a viable path to 'switch' the Ukrainians. Not immediately, but in the long-term.

Because the West has shown its weakness and its fragility. All its combined wealth and combined population, its combined armed forces and defense industries, its combined soft power and existing emigre Russian communities, its intel and internet mastery, all of its alleged influence and power to get the rest of the world to bend to its will - has all been proven powerless against Russia.
And I'd remind you that Russia is hardly held in high esteem among the Ukrainian intelligentsia and elites. It's not China, it's not the next superpower. It's a country no better than the Ukraine, one of the poorest in Europe, with a naturally declining population, only about 145 mil people, whose best days are behind it and which has had an identity crisis since the USSR dissolved. It's a country of dirt roads, vodka alchoholics, crime, decrepit buildings, and supposedly whatever else.
Yet the West was brought low by this country and failed the Ukraine. Because it was the West itself, that encouraged the Ukraine to not take Minsk seriously, that armed it up, that seduced it with promises of Russia's swift economic collapse and revolution even should they dare to oppose a Kiev offensive on the Donbass. The only thing neccessary from Kiev in this scenario, would be simply to hold on for a month or two militarily while Russia is cancelled.

But what happened in reality? In reality it was the Ukraine that held its own and its side of the bargain. It produced a more tenacious defense than anyone had supposed and sacrificed hundreds of thousands of men to death, capture or disfigurement. It is still surviving, and while that may be due to Moscow's cautious strategy, it's its own achievement that it has enticed Moscow into one.
And this it has done with virtually only its own weapons and its own people.

While all the West's sanctions, cultural cancellations, internet bans, investment pullouts, financial attacks on the rouble amounted to little. More serious blockade and embargo threats were walked back on. It's assumed influence over New Delhi failed. Vietnam has ignored US pressure to cut back relations with Russia. Beijing went ahead and extended ties with Moscow. Turkey has just signed massive economic deals with Russia. Venezuela is talking back to Europe. Argentina after earlier pleading for money from the IMF is now planning to join the BRICS. The Saudis are planning likewise. Iran is laughing about it all. North Korea has decided to get involved with rebuilding the Donbass. And now Pakistan's coupists are besieged after Washington's clumsy attempt at getting rid of a popular anti-US leader there.
Outside Europe the only diplomatic-political success the US has had has been in Kazakhstan.
In fact the Western bloc had mostly succeeded in harming its own economy, and isolating itself from the Muslim world and Global south.
While the military assistance the US and other NATO states have provided the Ukraine has been lackluster. A bunch of wunderwaffes that mostly haven't performed to spec. And not being supplied in sufficient numbers. It took NATO so long to decide how much to ramp up military aid by that by the time it decided to send them in significant numbers - the road/rail networks, fuel depots had been ruined anyway and there is a deficit of manpower to man it. Half the mercs and PMCs supplied by NATO ran scared after the Russian cruise missile strikes on Yavoriv and encirclement of Kiev. All these little psychological operations orchestrated by NATO and their man Zelensky hadn't had their desired effect either. Blowing up some ammo depot in the Crimea or oil cisterns in Belgorod has phased nobody. Even the Moskva was forgotten about briskly.
NATO intel, planning, recon and such resources have proved valuable but that's about it.

And now, if the West moves to conclude a deal with Russia or hold serious talks, that result in some accord - then the West will have shown itself to not only have let the Ukraine down, but to have betrayed it too.
At that stage, what real reason is there for the Ukraine, whatever form its left in - to continue with a pro-Western trajectory? Of course in the best case for the current regime, they will survive and rule for a little longer - but I'm talking more about their strategists, thinkers and so on, the trajectory as such of their entire educated society. Stick with the West, the side that lost? Or actually try to find a new place for the Ukraine in the world. One which fits into the multi polar world order championed by Russia/China.
The Ukrainians don't realize it yet, but they will - that they have much to resent Washington, and London and Brussels and Berlin and Warsaw and the rest of them for. They were used as willing pawns, then egged on into a war they couldn't win, and then abandoned, while their patrons cut their losses after the experiment at bringing down Russia went awry.

flamming_python wrote:
Well if you think about it, really think, then yes there exists a viable path to 'switch' the Ukrainians. Not immediately, but in the long-term.

I tend to agree with you, with the difference, that i think Western regions should be left out. They are head of the snake, so to speak, and brain of this ethno fascist Ukrainian idea. I see western, Greeko-Catholic Ukrainians in same way as people from the Baltics. It's better to leave them out.
Bomb western Ukraine mercilessly, destroy infrastructure and industry and let them die off.
Rest of Ukraine will be much easier to pacify. East and South should be completely Russified, as majority of these people are, naturally, close to Russia.
For example, annex Donbass, Kharkov, Sumy, Zaporozhye, Kherson, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava and Kirovograd oblasts and make them regions of Russia.
That way, modern Ukraine will stop to exist as most population and majority of resources and industry will be left out.

Nikolai
@Nikolai11449196
·
11m
The Kherson offensive is finally underway…by Russia.
It seems Russian and allied forces have advanced 3-5km towards Nikolaev.

GEROMAN -- The Zerbian - -
@GeromanAT
·
24m
The AFU General Staff in the morning report again reported the presence of advancement of Russian forces in the area of Blahodatne
Some sources announced full control of the village, in the evening the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not mention new data on the status


Two days ago vs today

Guerre & Paix
@GuerrePaixOff
· 19m
Replying to @GeromanAT
Livuamap

caveat emptor wrote:
That way, modern Ukraine will stop to exist as most population and majority of resources and industry will be left out.

That is the best way scenario, however, I see one disadvantage here.
This carcass will be pushed for some kind of reintegration with Poland, and we see that quite obvious.
This is a next stage scenario from the Anglosaxons.
They play on the political weakness of the Polish ruling class like on a piano.
That will push back Poland in development for 20 years.
But that can be a goal either.
What they will get back as a reward, will be a 50+/- mln conglomerate with close to zero chances for further development, as it will go down in a toilet along with the whole Europe.
But extremely Russophobic, and capable to deliver millions of cannon fodder for future proxy wars.

JohninMK wrote:

"a million strong offensive" is gaining impetuous, but not sure if the Twitter strategists see the difference in direction

Russians improving

News from Slavyangrad Reports & Vids
@DeuNachrichten
·
57m

"All the extensive mayhem and fires are downed [by the Russian air defence system]. We did not hit anything significant yesterday or today," said (https://mk.ru/politics/army/2022/08/20/arestovich-priznal-effektivnost-rossiyskoy-pvo-no-pripisal-vsu-seryoznyy-uspekh.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop
) Oleksiy Arestovych, advisor to the Ukrainian presidential office.

Russia is doing this with 200k men, a peace time economy. Russia has not mobilized. Russia has employed 20% of its capability.

Russia commited around 120.000 soldiers to the theater of operations (which is 8 - 10% of her military power) but is using maybe 30 - 40.000 (3 - 4% max.), the rest are allied forces (DPR, LPR, contractors, volunteers).

The 15.000 casualties number includes killed and wounded.

"a million strong offensive" is gaining impetuous, but not sure if the Twitter strategists see the difference in direction 

According to some sources the counter-offensive has been postponed to November. Don´t know if it´s 2022 or later... 

"All the extensive mayhem and fires are downed [by the Russian air defence system]. We did not hit anything significant yesterday or today," 

It seems there are supply problems on NATO´s side. A few attacks by the "super-best MRLS in the history of the Universe", better known as Himars, in the last days were made with 2 or 3 rockets/missiles. Rationing of a Wunderwaffe. 

Hole wrote:
According to some sources the counter-offensive has been postponed to November. Don´t know if it´s 2022 or later... 

They don't name the year by purpose!
Yust want to have a ready content for twitter, no need to reshape it!
It is a clear win lad!

Hole wrote:
It seems there are supply problems on NATO´s side. A few attacks by the "super-best MRLS in the history of the Universe", better known as Himars, in the last days were made with 2 or 3 rockets/missiles. Rationing of a Wunderwaffe. 

Yet they managed to kill two roadworkers and hurt about 20 people, because supplied of a data when a ferry will arrive to make the splitters matter.
European ISIS on it's best.

I'd say it's realistic to suppose that Russia has about 6000 KIA by now

That's armed forces, Rosgvardia, Wagner, those volunteer battalions that get trained in Chechnya, and whatever else.

And as for 9000 KIA on the Donbass side, it's a bit on the high side but could be the case

If we include wounded though, then the figures will be a lot bigger.

Hole wrote:

Russia commited around 120.000 soldiers to the theater of operations (which is 8 - 10% of her military power) but is using maybe 30 - 40.000 (3 - 4% max.), the rest are allied forces (DPR, LPR, contractors, volunteers).

The 15.000 casualties number includes killed and wounded.

No way. Just LDPR combined had that many casualties at the end of June, beginning of July.

flamming_python wrote:I'd say it's realistic to suppose that Russia has about 6000 KIA by now
That's armed forces, Rosgvardia, Wagner, those volunteer battalions that get trained in Chechnya, and whatever else.
And as for 9000 KIA on the Donbass side, it's a bit on the high side but could be the case
If we include wounded though, then the figures will be a lot bigger.

But of course those will, Ramzan Achmetovich has released a series of materials of the holly warriors sustaining pain&misery in the name of Alla and Russia.
Still the number is totally irrelevant to any other than family.
Forgot to tell ya', that the road accidents victim number is falling crazy rate due to increasing road and cars quality. It was double the number only a decade ago.

Arrow wrote:Erdogan wants to organize a Putin-Zelensky meeting in Turkey again

He better get his ass over to Uzbekistan to meet Assad first, as he agreed to

Putin didn't meet Zelensky the first time around, no need to do it this time either. Certainly not on the backdrop of this terrorist attack in Moscow nor while Nikolayev and Kharkov are still in enemy hands.
Their delegations met, but of course we know how that ended up.

Erdo's meeting with Snuffy lasted about 40 min, including the protocol.
How many thoughts and strategies you can share in the meantime?