https://www.flugrevue.de/zivil/neuer-vierstrahler-aeroflot-sagt-njet-zur-iljuschin-il-96-400m/
Aeroflot says „ Njet “ to Ilyushin Il-96-400M
Russia's state-owned company Rostec celebrates the recent maiden flight of the Ilyushin Il-96-400M as a milestone – but nobody really wants the new aircraft. Aeroflot also waves thanks: the Flag Carrier instead demands a twinjet.
Patrick dwarf
11/13/2023
The Rostec press text for First flight of the Ilyushin Il-96-400M on the 1st. November was full of praise for the new jet. But that doesn't change the fact that Russia's aviation industry, apart from the PR bubbles, is more skeptical about the retreaded four-beam. Yes, it is true that there are very few companies in the world that are able to build their own wide-body passenger aircraft – namely Airbus and Boeing. Against this background, the Il-96-400M is proof of the "competence of domestic design offices and aircraft factories", as Russia's Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturow emphasized. But that's just one side of the coin.
Airplane without customers
The other side is that no one is seriously interested in the Il-96-400M in the airline executive floors, either in Russia or elsewhere. There are still no specific orders for the four-wheeler that it will ever be produced in large numbers, is currently not foreseeable. A niche existence as a technology carrier is more likely to be, which should pave the way for a better future for Russia's aircraft manufacturers. A few homeopathic orders for the state VIP transport fleet may be added, the highest of the feelings would be orders from cargo airlines. From today's point of view, it seems rather unlikely that passengers who ever pay will fly in an Il-96-400M.
Aeroflot wakes up
Russia's largest airline Aeroflot has already given the new Ilyushin a categorical rejection. In an interview with the Daily newspaper Wedemosti Aeroflot boss Sergei Alexandrowski emphasized some time ago that it was "irrational to integrate outdated technology into a commercially ineffective aircraft." In addition, the industry in Russia is unable to "produce the Il-96-400M in the required quantities" and the increase in production volumes to a suitable level is simple "too expensive". What Aeroflot needs instead is "a new twin-engine aircraft with advanced technology and good fuel efficiency," said Alexandrowski.
Steam cell for new things?
In fact, the Il-96-400M could prove to be a bridge builder on the way to such an aircraft after the CRAIC CR929 project, which was pursued together with China, was down due to sanctions. In Russia the voices are increasing, the one Reconstruction of the Il-96 from four to two engines. Rostec boss Sergei Chemesov himself heated the debate on this in October when he emphasized to the daily Izvestia that the topic was "on the agenda".
Core problems remain
However, a suitable Russian engine is missing for a twin-engine "Il-96neo" until further notice. The one under development Large turbofan PD-35 will be ready for series production at the earliest in 2030. In addition, the wings would have to be redesigned accordingly for the conversion. Above all, however, the bottleneck of the limited production capacities would also remain with an Il-96 two-beam –, especially since the industry will be fully equipped with the standard fuselage programs Sukhoi Superjet and Yakovlev MS-21 in the coming years will be busy, which are also not yet ready for series production.
The issue with the wings is not that big, since Russia was already working on the design of the wings for the CR929 which has basically the same size as the il-96.
Furthermore it was supposed to be build in a very large series and the wings were supposed to be produced only in Russia, so Russia has been planning a large production capabilities for those.
As far as the limited production capabilities mentioned in the article, I call bs.
Of course it is true now, but the production lines of the Amur plants were the superjets are produced and the one in Irkut for the MC21 are modern automatic lines capable of large production rates.
Something similar has been implemented in Aviastar in Ulyanovsk for the production of il-76 military transport aircrafts.
VASO in Voronezh is the plant responsible for widebody production. Until now, due to the lack of orders, a dedicated modern and automated production line there was not justified, since it is also very expensive, but I am sure that it will be done before the PD-35 engine will be certified.
As far as what Aeroflot said, maybe they can survive until 2030 without new widebodies.
People in the west forget also that Aeroflot is not the only airline there.
I am sure that Rossiya Airlines will get some of the Il-96 that will be produced now.
Furthermore keeping a steady assembly of aircrafts (even of only 2 aircrafts per year) of il-96 until the twin version is ready will allow the supply chain to better plan and organize the production of parts and to gradually set up the increase in production rate once the PD-35 will be ready.
By the way, in the German article they write that Aeroflot is not going to buy il-96-400M, mentioning that the director of Aeroflot completely rejected the plane during an interview with vedomosti from last august, but his actual words were a bit different.
He said that they are inefficient and that they are not produced in a large serie. He is not happy with them, but he did not say that they will not buy them (also because they have no choice).
Furthermore Aeroflot is government owned, they need to understand that each ruble, dollar or euro that they gave in the past to Boeing or Airbus has meant less money available to develop russian aircrafts and engines.
Here the link and some extracts
https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/characters/2023/08/13/989888-sergei-aleksandrovskii
Vedomosti” wrote:
August 13, 21:37 / Business / Interview
« Without Russian aircrafts, our civil aviation has no future »
General Director « Aeroflot »
about a firm contract for Russian aircraft and negotiations with foreign lessors
Over the past year and a half, the Russian aviation industry has undergone the most serious tests in its entire history: carriers not only lost the marginal western market, but also the ability to replenish their parks with foreign equipment and serve already received cars with foreign providers. The rest suffered more severely «Aeroflot», which built its work on the basis of transit passenger traffic between East Asia and Western countries, which has ceased since last spring. The company had to significantly restructure the route network and master new types of maintenance of foreign routes.
In an interview with « Vedomosti », the general director of the national carrier, Sergey Alexandrovsky, spoke about the first firm contract in the new conditions for the supply of Russian aircraft, about the promotion of negotiations with foreign lessors, salary increase for airline employees and connection « G1 » to the « Aeroflot bonus » program.
(...)
– And in terms of operation, what are you preparing for?
– New aircraft will certainly require increased attention. For this, a long period of controlled operation, joint work with the manufacturer to eliminate deficiencies – « childhood diseases », etc. is provided. Moreover, all this does not apply exclusively to Russian technology, any new type of aircraft, whether Airbus or Boeing, for the first time in operation, requires exactly the same increased attention.
– Aircraft that are being created in Russia today, – near and mid-main. But airlines clearly need long-haul aircraft, for example, for flights to the Far East. At some point, foreign long-haul aircraft will have to be withdrawn from the park. Are you getting ready for this?
– We have not only the Far East – there are a number of international directions. But it is clear that first of all we must ensure transport accessibility within the country. And if we start to face some kind of deficit – which we do not see yet, – then, of course, we will primarily concentrate on the needs within the country, we will ensure the transport accessibility of our regions. But I note that according to the operating statistics of the current long-haul fleet, it is clear that in some long-term period we will be able to operate it until at least 2030.
– Does industry think about long-haul aircraft?
– It is conceived, and we are discussing this with the manufacturer. The main thing that is necessary for the design of a long-haul aircraft, – is the engine. The project is already there, this is PD-35. Of course, « Aeroflot » expects a new long-haul aircraft from industry.
– Il-96-300 or Il-96-400 is already quite in the past?
– Unfortunately, industry is not able to produce them in the required quantity, and restoring production volumes is too expensive. In addition, raising obsolete technologies to a commercially inefficient – aircraft is irrational. Need a new two-engine aircraft using advanced technology and good fuel efficiency.
Note:
Sergey Alexandrovsky
General Director « Aeroflot »
Born September 9, 1976.
1998
graduated from Moscow State Social University with a degree in « Jurisprudence »
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