Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34

No, you are right, it was never intended for that, but the Orcs have had 8 months at least and probably longer to figure out how to add GPS guidance to these things with the military signal no doubt rather than the civilian receivers to get this thing working... it already flew waypoints so adding Navstar should boost accuracy to the point where it needed to be shot down or it might have hit something rather important.

Naaah.
Just look at the numbers.
Those things are not in production for +/- 40 years, and a whole 150 has been made.
Obviously, not all of them left in Ukr after 1991, I would say not more than 1/4 at best if we consider the distribution of other equipment.
As Russkie took them offline relatively shortly after 1991, Ukrs kept them operational, so it means natural usage.
How many could be left, here is the best hint for that :
Back in 1992, the structure of unmanned recon in Ukr was as follows :
379. regiment with WR-2, 383. regiment with WR-3, 94. squadron with WR-2, 321. squadron with WR-2, and 4. Guards Squadrone with WR-2.
Only one incomplete regiment was left by 2014, with both WR-2 and 3, the others have been unformed.
Since 2014, both systems have been used over LDNR, some lost.
So we are talking about SEVERAL pieces of WR-2, with a few of them already spent/shoot down.
This number does not justify any serious modernization.
I have already read some phantasmagoria on TG about equipping them with airliners transponders to fool the Russian AD systems and releasing them from "some other country".
People have a strange habit to overcomplicate the things that are bloody easy, or digging out some conspiracy theories.
They have few pcs left, will just attach FABs to it with glue and rope, and release in terrorist attacks hoping it will land anywhere to make some damage.
And that's it.

Ukraine demonstrated that can hit the targets hundreds of kilometers inside of Russian territory.

True, but they had this ability way before SMO started with their AirForce, drones and ballistic missiles.
Before SMO Ukraine had 26 Su-27 and up to 50 Mig-29 which could have been use to attack deep into Russian territory. Not to mention hundreds of Ballistic missiles.

Russia eliminated that threat almost 100%, apart from some new ad hoc solutions popping up in the meantime.

So now Russia is basically running out of any meaningful/practical ways to increase cycle of violence in cheap and secure way for its troops.

The only one running out of solutions is Ukraine. Russia could procced like this for years with standoff weapons attacks deeply into enemy teritory.

Anyway, Ukraine is working hard on new long-range drone, there are some info that they are doing already some of the testing for it. Also, US is discussing to send gliding bombs to Ukraine that can increase range to 150km of precision strikes, they think that already in spring it could be delivered.

That is their wet dream, nothing else.
Yes i am sure they have ability and engineering potential to make few flying prototypes and cause some damage to Russia, maybe hit Red Square even, but ultimately that is only PR stunt and nothing else.  
In other words, only thing left for Ukraine is "harassment weapons" like modified comercial drones. Their PR stunts get amplified by mainstream media but on the battle field they are achieving zero value.

Spring will not bring good things for Russia, its prospects in Ukraine will continue to deteriorate and price of involvement there will continue to rise in human, equipment and financial costs. Its prestige as big military power is already quite undermined on global level - that is direct result of war in Ukraine. Stay tuned.

It will not bring anything good to Ukraine either. You are forgeting one thing that Ukraine is sitting in the dark and hopping that something will happened and Russia will pullout. But even then they will stay in ruins and they will need years to recover.

I have to say that this Engels base attack in the worst case scenario could cause permanent hull loss of few aircraft which would be a big thing.

Ukraine should have at least a battery of Neptune AShMs that were perfectly capable for attacking targets at least well into the Crimea.
Including the bridge.
The system was advocating ready.
Budget allocations have been provided.
Battery command posts have been already delivered -at least n paper.
In April 2022 they should have at least 24 ready to fire missiles.
Where are they ?
We have options a/ Russkie took them all down early in the conflict or b/ those never existed in working pieces, just the invoice and bribes flow was uninterrupted.
So it is really funny to hear about the next Ukro-originated Wunderwaffe, the next stage after NATO-delivered Wunderwaffe.

True, but they had this ability way before SMO started with their AirForce, drones and ballistic missiles.
Before SMO Ukraine had 26 Su-27 and up to 50 Mig-29 which could have been use to attack deep into Russian territory. Not to mention hundreds of Ballistic missiles.

Russia eliminated that threat almost 100%, apart from some new ad hoc solutions popping up in the meantime.

Not at all. Russian air defence may not be perfect but deep strike with mig-29 and su-27 isn't possible.

Suicide missions can achieve some success but that's not an ability.

S-300V4 proved very efficient against ukrainian tochkas.

Russia still has issues with low flying targets but that's normal since radars have very small range against low flying targets and ukro have intel about russian radars from US satellites. They can easily programmed the drones to go around the AD.

Biggest mistake is to not put enough Shorads around those strategic bases. They have 250+ Tunguska, 200+ pantsir and plenty of other igla 10, Osa akm and buks. The question is why they didn't deploy them around those bases. The military analysts underestimated the ukro ability and willingness to use long range drones despite them using such weapons in the last months. The AD command also underestimated them and didn't deploy enough system eventhough they have hundreds of them.

They need to fire some generals and understand that ukro are using every tool they have for that war and aren't afraid to hit all the targets.

They need to start protecting all the nuclear power plants, strategic bases and strategic infrastructure. Thry will keep targeting such targets.

Not at all. Russian air defence may not be perfect but deep strike with mig-29 and su-27 isn't possible.
Suicide missions can achieve some success but that's not an ability.

they were possible but now that threat is eliminated almost 100%.
The mail thing is that vice versa it is working and Russia can use its airforce to attack UA territory.
I know that haters keep saying how Russia is not using its air force which is nonsense...

Biggest mistake is to not put enough Shorads

according to statements Drone in Engels was intercepted.

One more thing, as soon as someone start talking/writing about how Russia ran out of missiles, how its army is not capable bla bla, show them this photo...
No matter what, you can't spin this info.



In Russia everything is almost as before SMO, while Ukraine is a black lake in Europe and that tells you everything about their air defense, army, economy, life quality and etc...

I just heard from the Jimmy Dore show that the attacked Russian airbase is probably also hosting nuclear weapons. That might be another major escalation step. Let's see how Russia will react.

The Zoka quoted above is not the real one but an imposter.

The real Zoka

https://twitter.com/200_zoka

The drone strikes on the airbases, much like the waste of Ukrainian lives in Donbass, and the shelling of civilians and all the other crap Nazilensky and co have pulled is not about escalation. Its about securing the cash flow. The US, to quote Patton, "loves a winner and plays to win all the time." We think of the poor and suffering at Christmas or right after something happens, but within a few weeks we have moved on to did the sportsball team win the championship and/or celeb A is married to celeb B and is bouncing off celeb C and how much did Congressman Clown pay to snort lines of cocaine with that hooker? That's if you are losing and Ukraine is. The stupid Ukro flags are mostly gone from most US social media (not the agitators and paid influencers, but the average "woke"). Why? Because Ukraine is losing. Even worse for them, the Republicans want to run an audit. They don't want peace but they want a return on their investment. So if Russian stuff doesn't go boom and they can't show that they tried to make Russian stuff go boom they [the Ukrainian con men] stand to lose lots of money. So they are getting desperate. Escalation might be what some of them want, but for those closest to power, its all about protecting and preserving the cash flow so they will try to bomb stuff, kill civilians, and do wave assaults at entrenched positions to get the checks signed. Z is a puppet of the oligarchs, and they only care about cash flow and not lives. Escalation and nuclear war stops the scam, rinky dink attacks that blow up a Tu -22 or 95 or kill some gal walking her dog in Belgorod or leveling an apartment block in Donetsk help them sell the need for ever more money.

Now for those of you on antidepressants because the Ukronazis attacked an airbase deep in Russia and damaged a couple Tu 22s and a Tu 95 got burn marks, I'd encourage you to step back from the ledge. Ukraine is fighting a war where they are reduced to terrorist tactics. They are truly whores, but they ain't stupid. All but the most fanatical of them know they cannot win this war on the ground. So they resort to terrorism.

Stunning terror attack successes are almost always one offs. As an anti terrorism after 9/11 said, "we have to be successful every time, they only have to be successful once." Terrorism v counterterrorism is always creativity v complacency. They may hit the same target on more than one occassion, but it will never be in the same way. The WTC for instance. In 1993 terrorists used truck bombs. Policies were changed and security measures were taken to prevent that from happening again. Sadly, Al Qaeda studied that problem and were determined to at least damage if not totally destroy the WTC so they focused on an old terrorist favorite, hijacking. Too few in the American security apparatus had the imagination to see that Al Qaeda would do that, let alone in America so they got complacent. There's the USS Cole, nobody in the Navy or CIA thought Al Qaeda would try sinking a surface warship with a suicide boat. Well, they did. Creativity v complaceny.

The ISIS attacks in Paris are another instance. The Moscow Theater hostage Crisis and Beslan hostage Crisis are a couple more examples. The Pan Am bombing is another. Kerch Strait Bridge, the sinking of the Moscow and airbases in Crimea and Engels are tge most recent examples. Its always a battle between terrorist creativity and counterterrorism's complacency. They will doubtlessly try attacking the Black Sea Fleet, those airbases, and the Bridge again, but it won't be in the same way. Engels is not a tail of woe, but a teaching moment. The complacency was, "it won't happen here!" To prevent it from happening again measures will be taken to secure the airspace.

ucmvulcan wrote:

Now for those of you on antidepressants because the Ukronazis attacked an airbase deep in Russia and damaged a couple Tu 22s and a Tu 95 got burn marks,

What if the recon drone had been packed with high level radioactive waste from one of Ukraine's reactors?

Would you still be treating it as only burn marks?

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that additional mobilization measures do not make sense. 

“ Out of 300,000 mobilized fighters, 150,000 are in the zone of the special operation . Half in the troops, in the group. Of these 150,000, only 77,000 are in combat units. The rest are in the second or third lines, performing the functions, in fact, of territorial defense,” Putin said during a meeting with members of the Human Rights Council. 

Another 150 thousand, as the president noted, are not in the group at all. They are at the training grounds and in the training centers of the Russian Ministry of Defense and undergo additional training. This is a military reserve. 

“Under these conditions, talking about some additional mobilization measures does not make sense, and there is no need for this,” Vladimir Putin said.

Putin also stressed that Russia will continue the consistent struggle for its national interests.

The President of Russia also noted that the doctrine of human rights is used to justify the dominance of the West in ideology . ■

https://tvzvezda-ru.translate.goog/news/20221271721-iO1JG.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB&_x_tr_pto=nui

"What if the recon drone had been packed with high level radioactive waste from one of Ukraine's reactors?

Would you still be treating it as only burn marks?"


I don't think Ukraine would be that dumb as that's a defacto nuclear attack (in a sense anyways sure not a proper one)

That would force Putin to call up more manpower (he wouldn't be able to tie peoples hands anymore)

Sure I do critize Russia for making stupid mistakes (as anyone rightfully should)

But the only reason Ukraine is even lasting this long is because Putin refuses to this day to reply the mass amount of men needed, so that forces the army to go at a snails pace because they are often going against heavily defended areas which insufficient numbers

Soldiers of PMC "Wagner" send greetings from Yakovlevka. Today the village has come under the control of our troops
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/35892?single

Arrow wrote:Frustrated Zoka    

It's a fake account! Original account is @200_zoka not @200_sucka

Well Erk, a few things

1. I don't normally deal in what ifs.  I mean if my aunt had testicles she'd be my uncle or else she'd be some nonbinary person that the politically correct police would give special protections to.

2. However, for sake of argument, you are describing a dirty bomb.  From all I can gather about those, the conventional ordinance is far more destructive and lethal than the radioactive material and since Russia has some of the best NBC [nuclear, biological, and chemical] disinfectant equipment in the world the plane would be sprayed down, and put back into service within days assuming no structural damage and really the flight and ground crews would be decontaminated by being hosed down.  That's it. Dirty bombs are not the same thing as nukes.  The main threat is the blast by the conventional ordinance.  Trust me, dirty bombs were the stuff of nightmares in American media after 9/11.  Then people did studies that showed how fairly impractical they were and how little radiation they actually could hold.  Look radiocative waste is not something anyone wants but there is a vast difference between it and fissable material.

3. If I were Putin and they used a dirty bomb, well the orders get changed a bit and so I not only cut Ukraine off from the sea I also launch quick attacks to seize their NPPs and Belarus gets a bit bigger.  Dirty bombs are a dare, but they are not a nuclear exchange worthy response.

franco wrote:Russian President Vladimir Putin said that additional mobilization measures do not make sense.

“ Out of 300,000 mobilized fighters, 150,000 are in the zone of the special operation . Half in the troops, in the group. Of these 150,000, only 77,000 are in combat units. The rest are in the second or third lines, performing the functions, in fact, of territorial defense,” Putin said during a meeting with members of the Human Rights Council.

Another 150 thousand, as the president noted, are not in the group at all. They are at the training grounds and in the training centers of the Russian Ministry of Defense and undergo additional training. This is a military reserve.

“Under these conditions, talking about some additional mobilization measures does not make sense, and there is no need for this,” Vladimir Putin said.

Putin also stressed that Russia will continue the consistent struggle for its national interests.

The President of Russia also noted that the doctrine of human rights is used to justify the dominance of the West in ideology . ■

So...like I said a few weeks before....

There will be no major offensive in the foreseeable future!

The forces for a offensive would be too small. 150k is combat reserve and wouldn't be enough to take Kiev or western border of Ukraine. Could of course be some kind of Maskirovka...who knows?!

I expect more an acceleration of the grinding of Ukrainian forces in Donbass. Bakhmut will be taken in a few weeks and in February or March we will witness the collapse of the whole Donbass front. After that it's on Russia if they will take Kharkov or not...or they will maybe sign a peace treaty with Ukraine after liberation of Donbass region.

A big offensive has only one simple advantage...ending the war very soon, but with high casualties on both sides. I don't know if this in the interest of Russia.

So we will see....

Real numbers of mobilized are for sure higher than 350k. Big offensive will have to happen. They still haven't taken the Donbasd.

Kiev and west Ukraine was never a goal but they will for sure feint an attack with limited forces like at the beggining to divide ukro force who will have to bring soldiers from Donbass to protect Kiev making the offensive easier in the Donbass for russian forces.

Why do you think they are leveling ukro train transport infrastructure and electrical infrastructure ? It's to make their movement very slow during a movement war. Right now they are all sticking on their positions so the impact of strikes on trains and electrical infrastructure is not seen.

But once Russia starts moving troop north of Kiev and north east of Ukraine, ukro won't be able to follow. Snow will also slow them down even more.

Definitely lots of maskirovka. In a way its like Kursk or Stalingrad or Moscow. The rules of Russian war seems to be to grind your foe's best troops to powder, build up your forces and when he is on the point of exhaustion, go onto the offensive. Ukraine's best forces are still in Donbass and the Russian air force has only recently started degrading Ukrainian transit and energy infrastructure. Once enough of those are taken out and Ukraine's army is bled out enough then you will start to see a targeted offensive, but remember Putin himself, for better or worse, said this war has no plans for territorial conquest so do not expect the map to be redrawn all that much.

but remember Putin himself, for better or worse, said this war has no plans for territorial conquest so do not expect the map to be redrawn all that much.

russia voted in 4 new regions. It would be treason against the russian people not to fully liberate those oblasts.