Economy of India

India’s biggest company planning big swap with Venezuela – Reuters, 08.09.2024.

Washington has given Reliance Industries its approval to restart oil transactions with the sanctioned South American nation.

India’s Reliance Industries is planning to pay for Venezuelan oil partly with naphtha supplies and partly with US dollars after obtaining Washington’s approval to resume oil trade with the sanctioned nation, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Reliance, which is owned by India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, operates the world’s biggest refining complex in Gujarat state.

Venezuela’s proven oil reserves are recognized as the largest in the world. With an estimated 303 billion barrels, the country accounts for approximately 17% of global crude oil reserves, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, its energy sector has experienced severe jolts in recent years due to international sanctions and the economic crisis. Caracas has been the subject of US restrictions for over 15 years.

Reliance was forced to stop buying oil directly from Venezuela in April due to the reimposition of sanctions. However, the company submitted a request to the US to resume imports of crude from Venezuela in May. The Indian firm was authorized to resume its purchases in July, according to Reuters.

Two oil refineries owned by Reliance can process 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and have the technology to process cheaper and heavier crudes, such as Merey from Venezuela. Caracas needs naphtha, which is primarily produced in North America, to dilute its heavy crude.

Oil from Venezuela is among the cheapest for India’s oil refiners, with the average cost reported at $60.60 a barrel in January this year.

In 2023, Washington granted a broad license to Venezuela’s oil industry, allowing state-run PDVSA to export to its chosen markets. In 2023, India was among the main destinations for Venezuelan crude oil exports, with an average supply of 5,000 barrels per day, according to German data-gathering firm Statista. Reliance received 2 million barrels of Venezuelan oil last June, Reuters reported, citing data from analytics firm Kpler.

India’s top explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC.NS) holds a 40% stake in the San Cristobal field in eastern Venezuela’s Orinoco Heavy Oil belt, with the state oil company PDVSA holding the remainder. In January, Reuters reported that Venezuela had agreed to give some oil to ONGC with a view to recouping its pending $600 million dividend.

https://www.rt.com/india/602374-reliance-oil-venezuela-deal/

Washington has given Reliance Industries its approval to restart oil transactions with the sanctioned South American nation.

Did they give them a rub behind the ear and take them for a walk too?

At a guess I would say there was likely a deal behind the scenes that this Indian company would process Venezuelan oil instead of Russian oil perhaps?

The Americans are playing a game, they don't want Venezuela or Russia to make money on oil, but they want oil to remain cheap so they can't block it all...

Look forward to when the richest man in India had some balls and didn't crawl to the Americans for permission to break American sanctions.

How hard would it be for Russia to look through a list of all the products they currently import from openly hostile countries and find some products they use quite a bit and use the trade imbalance surplus of Indian rupees to set up businesses in India to make those products and exclusively send them to Russia.

Perhaps they might find a few products that include products that India imports and sell them on the local market as well as exporting them to Russia.

Russia could build factories and hire workers with the money they get from oil and gas sales, they will be investing in the Indian economy and paying Indian taxes but the products can be exported to Russia and sold in rubles.

Indian fuel exports to Europe surge 2,500 times – report, 09.02.2024.

European countries are turning to New Delhi for petrochemicals after US-led sanctions cut them off from Russian energy supplies.

India’s exports of refined oil products to Europe have surged by 2,539 times since 2018, according to news website The Print, citing data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

The dramatic increase is attributed to post-Covid-19 supply chain challenges in Europe and India’s heightened imports of discounted Russian crude oil following the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict.

In the 2018-2019 financial year, European countries (including Russia) imported 9,740 metric tons of petrochemicals from India. By 2023-2024, the figure had skyrocketed to 24.73 million tons. In terms of value, exports grew by 3.5 times, from $5.9 billion in 2018-2019 to $20.5 billion in 2023-2024.

The Netherlands emerged as the leader among 17 European importer nations, purchasing 24.73 million tons of fuel from India in 2023-2024. With shipments via Rotterdam, Europe’s largest seaport, the Netherlands serves as a key supplier to markets across the region.

The export volume of India’s petroleum products to Europe began to surge during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-21 as Indian refiners bought cheap crude and sold value-added fuel, mostly diesel, an unnamed industry leader told The Print.

Demand spiked again in 2022, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and imposition of sweeping sanctions on Moscow by the US and its allies.

India has not supported the sanctions despite pressure from Western partners, and has ramped up its purchases of Russian oil, recently overtaking China as Moscow’ s largest buyer. In the financial year 2022-2023, Indian exports to Europe surged to nearly 17 million tons, valued at $16.3 billion, establishing New Delhi as a leading exporter of refined fuels to the region.

Indian officials have repeatedly stated that the country’s decision to buy Russian oil, despite Western pressure, has helped prevent a global energy crisis. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri emphasized in a recent interview with RT that without Russian oil on the market, global prices would have hit $250-$300 per barrel.

Russian oil exports to India peaked in July 2023, and recent data indicate a 14.5% decline in August, dropping to 1.80 million barrels per day (bpd) due to maintenance shutdowns at some refineries and diminished demand. Overall oil imports also fell accordingly, with Russian crude still constituting 39.9% of India’s oil imports for the month. An uptick is expected in October in anticipation of India’s festival season.

Trade between India and Russia rose to around $65 billion last year, largely on the back of Indian purchases of Russian oil.

https://www.rt.com/india/603393-indian-fuel-exports-to-europe/

India considering Russian SWIFT alternative for trade settlements – media, 09.03.2024.

The banking regulator is reportedly interested in joining Russia’s financial messaging system in the push towards de-dollarization.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is considering the use of Russia’s alternative to the Western SWIFT financial messaging system for rupee-ruble trade settlements, Business Line has reported.

The System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) was set up by the Russian central bank after the country was cut off from the Belgium-based SWIFT network as part of Ukraine-related sanctions.

According to the report on Tuesday, while discussions with financial institutions are ongoing, India’s banking regulator considers the SPFS a good way of making trade settlements more expedient for both countries.

“There have been meetings between senior officials from the RBI and some public sector banks with their counterparts in Russia on the country’s proposed alternative messaging system for banks. There is a view in the RBI that the proposal is doable,” a source familiar with the discussions told Business Line.

"For national currency trade settlements and quick pay to be more efficient, it is important to have a new transaction facilitating mechanism… Direct settlements in national currencies will not only help in de-dollarization but also lead to cheaper, quicker and more efficient transactions.”

The source noted, however, that the RBI considers the matter “a diplomatically sensitive issue” due to sanctions placed on many leading financial institutions in Russia and the SPFS system itself.

A host of Russian banks found themselves on Western sanctions blacklists following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022. The SPFS was also targeted by EU restrictions in late June, when Brussels banned the bloc’s banks from using the system or doing business with non-Russian third-country banks connected to it.

With that in mind, the RBI reportedly wants more time to analyze the possible risks of using the SPFS, as it could be interpreted as an attempt to circumvent Western sanctions on Russian banks and put Indian institutions in danger of secondary restrictions.

Discussions regarding the use of the SPFS in trade comes amid Russo-Indian efforts to cut reliance on Western money and boost the use of national currencies in bilateral trade. According to an Economic Times report last month, the two countries have been exploring the idea of creating a national currency settlement system to start direct rupee-ruble trade. Under the mechanism, the countries’ central banks would set a direct rupee-ruble exchange rate instead of pegging it against the US dollar. The move is expected to help Moscow and New Delhi overcome trade barriers created by Western sanctions.

https://www.rt.com/india/603438-russian-swift-india-settlements/

Russia is giving Indian exporters greater market access – New Delhi, 09.21.2024.

The two countries are working to increase trade in agriculture and food products, officials have told RT.

The Russian government is working to remove non-tariff barriers currently hindering imports of agricultural products and food items from India, officials in New Delhi have told RT.

Speaking on the sidelines of the World Food Moscow trade fair this week, top officials from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), an apex body under the Indian Ministry of Commerce, said the Russian market offers opportunities for Indian exporters across a wide range of categories, including whole grains, pulses, millets, processed foods, spices, and fruits.

The two countries are now working to resolve issues related to food sanitation norms and logistics to boost trade.

“There is a lot of scope in the Russian market for agriculture and food exports. Presently, the Russian government is supporting India by facilitating market access for Indian companies,” an APEDA representative stated. “India is a reliable, quality-assured supplier across the world with all necessary quality controls. The country’s food processing sector has also emerged significantly.”

He stressed that Indian agriculture is an important domain for both New Delhi and Moscow as they seek to expand and diversify trade, which recorded over $65 billion last financial year, largely due to India’s increased purchases of oil from Russia. Earlier this year, the two countries raised their bilateral trade target to $100 billion by 2030.

India ranks eighth globally in agricultural exports with a 2.35% share, recording around $48.76 billion in agricultural exports in 2023-24, primarily to the US, China, UAE, and others, according to APEDA. However, India’s exports to Russia amounted to $340.07 million, with guar gum, non-basmati rice, buffalo meat, and various processed foods topping the list.

Officials noted significant potential to enhance trade between India and Russia, highlighting the increased contacts between Indian importers and Russian buyers, facilitated by government bodies through exhibitions and special presentations of key Indian export items.

India is the second-largest fruit producer, renowned for mangoes, which are processed into various products, alongside emerging exports of seedless grapes. Indian pulses and snacks have gained global popularity, particularly due to improvements in the packaging industry and quality controls, with processed food exports valued at approximately $7.70 billion in fiscal year 2023-24. Basmati rice exports reached about $5.84 billion, APEDA reported.

The officials said India seeks investments from Russia in the food processing sector, highlighting government incentives available for both domestic and foreign players. New Delhi and Moscow are also discussing initiatives such as building warehouses near Russia’s largest ports to store high-demand Indian products, providing Russian buyers greater access while reducing costs and time, officials noted, without providing further details.

https://www.rt.com/india/604428-india-russia-agri-food-exports/

India on track to become third-largest economy – report, 09.21.2024.

The South Asian country’s GDP is expected to reach $10 trillion by the end of the decade.

India is on track to become the third-largest economy in the world by 2031, according to S&P Global. It is currently the fifth-largest economy in the world, behind the US, China, Japan, and Germany. Analysts expect the country to become a $10 trillion economy by the end of this decade.

S&P forecasts 6.7% annual GDP growth for the country in its latest report. According to government data, GDP expanded by 8.2% in fiscal year 2023-24 and 7.2% in the prior fiscal year, solidifying India’s position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Earlier this month, the World Bank raised its growth forecast for India to 7% for the current fiscal year, up from 6.6%. This revision reflects expectations of stronger economic performance, supported by factors including private consumption and investment.

The report notes that while the economy shows resilience, achieving the ambitious goal of $1 trillion in merchandise exports by 2030 will require strategic diversification and greater integration into global value chains.

This update echoes similar optimism from the IMF, which also revised its growth projection for the current fiscal year for India to 7% in July, an increase of 20 basis points. The IMF highlighted a significant rise in private consumption as a key factor driving this adjustment.

To sustain growth, India should introduce reforms to enhance business transactions and logistics, increase private-sector investment, and reduce reliance on public capital, S&P wrote, adding that the country needs to focus on developing port and coastline infrastructure to accommodate rising exports.

Last month, New Delhi approved a proposal for building a large port on its western coast to connect with major global trade networks, including Russia, Central Asia, and Europe. The port, to be built in the state of Maharashtra, will aid the flow of trade through the International North-South Transportation Corridor. The route passes through Iran, where India is also developing a massive project – Chabahar Port in the Gulf of Oman. It offers India a strategic foothold in the region, providing a direct route to a number of markets that are also eyed by China through its Belt and Road Initiative.

S&P said that to support rapid growth and overcome air pollution and climate change threats, India needs to accelerate its energy transition. To meet these challenges, the report notes, India is diversifying energy sources and enhancing grid infrastructure, aiming to more than triple renewable capacity to around 500 GW by 2030.

Additionally, India is focusing on low-emission technologies such as green hydrogen, green ammonia, small nuclear reactors, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage to reach its climate goals.

The agriculture sector, which contributes 18% to GDP and is also responsible for the livelihoods of 47% of the population, will rely on advanced technologies and new policies “to improve infrastructure and productivity.”

The rating agency also predicted that AI will play a crucial role in several key sectors in the future. The AI market in India is expected to grow by $17 billion-$22 billion by 2027, attracting investments of $4 billion, according to NASSCOM.

https://www.rt.com/india/604421-india-third-largest-economy/

India got fucked over by the rafale deal and now France wants to apparently give more tech transfer to India that never happened before.

Best part I am reading from Indians is how more reliable French tech is. Jokes on them, guess they aren't paying attention to the war or even their own experience.

Indians aren't as bright as they portray themselves to be

India calls for adjustment of 'one-sided' trade balance with Russia, by Liliya Pashkova for RBC. 11.11.2024.

Indian Foreign Ministry calls for adjustment of 'one-sided' trade balance with Russia.

The Indian Foreign Minister noted the growth in trade volumes between Russia and India, but called its one-sided nature a disadvantage and called for this problem to be corrected.

India and Russia need to correct their trade balance, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said at the India-Russia Business Forum in Mumbai, local publication Mint reports .

"Our bilateral trade today stands at $66 billion. This makes the target of $100 billion by 2030 more than realistic. However, the trade balance needs urgent correction as it is one-sided. For this, non-tariff barriers and regulatory hurdles need to be removed at the earliest," Jaishankar said.

He also called for the development of settlements in national currencies and noted that special Vostro accounts in rupees are an “effective mechanism.”.

During a meeting with the Prime Minister of India in July this year, President Vladimir Putin noted that the relations between the two countries "are of a particularly privileged strategic partnership nature" and that the development of trade and economic ties is in the interests of both countries. According to Putin, trade turnover increased by 66% in 2023 and by another 20% in the first quarter of this year.

The problem of trade imbalance between the countries was also discussed last year. Former head of the Ministry of Finance, VTB 24 and Otkritie banks Mikhail Zadoronov explained in August 2023 that Russia supplies energy resources to India in larger amounts than it buys goods in the country. According to him, in the first half of 2023, Russia exported oil and oil products to India for $30 billion, while imports amounted to approximately $6-7 billion per year. "We have nothing to buy in India, but we cannot return these rupees, since the rupee is a non-convertible currency," he said.

This is how the problem of billions of rupees of Russian companies "frozen" in accounts in Indian banks arose. In August, a Reuters source in the Indian government said that the volume of these funds had decreased to several million dollars.

In October, the Indian Foreign Ministry reported that the problem of the "frozen" rupees was still being addressed . There is already an agreement on trade in rupees for defense equipment, and the possibility of extending the mechanism to other areas, including oil, is being explored.

https://www.rbc.ru/economics/11/11/2024/67319fe49a79472f2e5c8868

It should be trivial to solve. Build factories in India to produce goods for export to Russia, contract services in India, or pay migrant workers to move from India to Russia to build infrastructure or work at factories within Russia much like the Gulf States do with Indian workers.

This is not complicated. And yet two years have passed and nothing.

Russia increased exports to India in September for the first time since May, 11.19.2024.

Russia Increases Exports to India in September After Three Months of Decline.

MOSCOW, November 19 — RIA Novosti. Russia increased exports to India in September after three months of decline, according to RIA Novosti calculations based on data from the Indian Ministry of Trade and Industry.

Thus, in the first month of autumn, Russian companies increased deliveries by a third - to 4.9 billion dollars against 3.6 billion in August.

India, on the contrary, reduced sales of goods to Russia by a quarter, to $364.2 million from a record level of $505.4 million in August.

As a result, trade turnover between the two countries increased by 28% and amounted to 5.2 billion dollars by the end of September.

In January-September, trade increased by 4.7% and reached $52.1 billion, of which $48.3 billion came from Russian exports and $3.8 billion from Indian exports.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi set a goal of reaching $100 billion in mutual trade by 2030 at a meeting in Moscow in June.

According to Russian statistics, bilateral trade turnover in 2023 increased by more than 60% and amounted to a record 56.8 billion dollars. The Indian statistical service gives even higher figures - 65 billion dollars.

https://ria.ru/20241119/rossija-1984515528.html