Russian special military operation in Ukraine #47

For those who do not know what Polkovodets Rumyanstev was:

After Kursk, the wehrmacht was incapacitated (much like Ukraine now), the wehrmacht had thrown its reserves at Kursk hoping to salvage its offensive potential and retain the initiative, but the Soviet defenses were layered and effectively chewed the wehrmacht into a spent force

This meant the Wehrmacht also did not have any defensive potential in the Kharkov region. The soviets knew that if they attacked the German, there would be no way to prevent a soviet advance on Belgorod and then Kharkov.

Simply because Wehrmacht had used its equipment, supplies, and manpower in Kursk

So there was nothing left to really protect Kharkov

If we draw comparisons, we can say Zaporozhye turned out eerily similar to Kursk - hundreds of burnt vehicles and tanks, many dead , and shortages of ammunition compounding the situation

At the same time, Russian generals know that Ukraine is stretched, and if they want to prevent a collapse of the line, Ukraine will have to take reserves from other areas and try to defend anywhere Russia advances

This is where Ukraine has a big problem - they will have no choice but to pick where they want to lose first, and right now Kupyansk looks like the winner

Although I will say, Kupyansk and the Kharkov area north of Slavyansk is the most important real estate to prevent a defensive collapse

Although without equipment, or ammo, it's gonna be hard for Ukraine to maintain any frontline as Russian troops overload them

For Russia, all they have to do is press wherever they feel that Ukrainian defenders are not skilled enough or equipped enough, and gauge how much force they need to walk the line forward

Gradually the entire front line will start to fold in the direction they apply mass, or conversely if Ukraine shifts reserves , then build mass in the area where Ukraine vacates

In general, it means that the time for Russian offensives is near,

And what followed Polkovodets Rumyanstev?

Well operation Kutuzov

And if you know about it, that would be the first Soviet offensive, which the wehrmacht could not stop - and guess where it took place?

Airbornewolf wrote:

Godric wrote:anyone got a link to the video of the Russian soldier slagging western weapons systems like the Leopard tanks

This one?

https://odysee.com/@airbornewolf:8/Russian-vents-about-the-state-of-the-West-and-it's-arms.:a

https://odysee.com/@airbornewolf:8/Russian-vents-about-the-state-of-the-West-and-it's-arms.:a

yes thanks, that is the very video , it was truly epic and truthful

I always find it curious how when a particular place is destroyed, like the "pizza parlor" a while back or inded this hotel in Zaporozhye, that a big bunch of western journos immediately come out and go "oh, that's where we were X weeks ago"

It's well-known that they mingle with VSU people all the time, and foreign mercenaries etc.

Now, unfortunately there's always the risk of collateral damage, that's a given, but after the initial outrage has subsided a bit other curious obituaries usually start trickling in. I wonder what will eventually come out of this latest one. Further developments are of course of no interest to media, but yeah.

Russia's goal is quite obvious: make people avoid the VSU and foreign mercs as the plague, as they are CM magnets. It is a wee bit of a cynical/callous approach, but pretty much lifted straight out of the U.S. GWOT doctrine. Except no random wedding parties.

Hole wrote: .....

Looks like some little "accident" happened in an oil depot in Rivne. 

Hopefully this gets expanded to local NPP, plenty of stuff to zap in Rivne

It seems hohols have evacuated this area:



This means they want to stand and fight there, my guess is they will pull reserves from Klesheevka and bring them to Oskol

Meaning Bakhmut flank will be safe

If they pull reserves from Orekhov, it would mean Russia can advance there

This is a catch 22, nowhere to run, nowhere to hide anymore

Conversely if they double down on Klesheevka, the entire left flank of VSU will be exposed from Valuyki to Seversk

Now wait a few weeks and add an attack from the Northern/North-Eastern direction. 

Hole wrote:Now wait a few weeks and add an attack from the Northern/North-Eastern direction. 

I think its a good idea, but maybe after the election in March, heading into summer

So consolidate north of Slavyansk, advance where possible for winter,

As spring comes, wait out the rasputitsa, and chill

When the elections are over, end the war, and give biden the biggest ass kicking before November

That's how I foresee it

Pr 775 Ropucha class LST Olenegorsky Gornyak in dry-dock following a Ukronazi sea drone attack.   Is this the best the Ukrofilth and their NATOstani leash-holders can manage?  

Hole wrote:Now wait a few weeks and add an attack from the Northern/North-Eastern direction. 

Yes and when the Ukes move troops to defend attack from Belarus and CLOSE THAT FUCKING BORDER for the love of GOD!!!

YouTube Deletes Scott Ritter’s Channel

Arkanghelsk wrote:The war can be won, if donbass is resolved

At least the main part of the war which is high intensity , mechanized, and use of missiles and air defense

The Donbass grouping of forces for the VSU, exceed 300,000 troops - this is the bulk of the Ukrainian army, making a last stand in Slavyansk-Kramatorsk

They are dug-in and launch small unit attacks on Bakhmut, but they cannot defend Oskol-kupyansk-lyman

They can only use these numbers in Donbass, because of the urban defenses they take advantage of there

If Russia can finalize Oskol Reservoir offensive and start approaching Slavyansk,  the VSU will have to run away to the nearest city (Poltava) or stay and die jn Donbass

Running to Poltava is going to be bad idea because Russian drones,  Helicopters, bombers,  and missiles will destroy any large forces which attempt to escape, and they cannot trickle 300,000+ men quietly to Poltava without "waking up" the VKS

So standing and fighting here,  will mean no meaningful Ukrainian forces remain to defend the left bank

There are isolated troops in Kharkov, Chernigov , Sumy, Poltava, but they are nothing like Donbass where the entire defense was interconnected

Syrsky has a very tough decision to make : when will he begin to retreat to the right bank? A breakthrough in kupyansk or any part of the front will be the end for his men, they will be surrounded at any point ,

And this is the main issue for Syrsky and Zelensky, losing Kupyansk will lead to domino effect in Seversk, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk

And he has no reserves, only teraborona and they flee whenever Russian troops advance on them

That's why the time for a limited offensive is now, the Ukrainian lines will break, and you can advance in all 3 sectors , Kupyansk, then Ugledar, then Zaporozhye,  and Zelensky will try to shuttle his remaining brigades to plug holes in his defense

The Ukrainian army is never conducting a meaningful offensive again,

They are the wehrmacht after Kursk, and the Russians conduct a polkovodets rumyanstsev

Every time you use the German vocabulary of Nazism the Ukrainians have good results. Argentina we have a term for that: MUFA. It means that you attract bad luck. Do good military analysis but don't say stupid things.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:I always find it curious how when a particular place is destroyed, like the "pizza parlor" a while back or inded this hotel in Zaporozhye, that a big bunch of western journos immediately come out and go "oh, that's where we were X weeks ago"

It's well-known that they mingle with VSU people all the time, and foreign mercenaries etc.

Now, unfortunately there's always the risk of collateral damage, that's a given, but after the initial outrage has subsided a bit other curious obituaries usually start trickling in. I wonder what will eventually come out of this latest one. Further developments are of course of no interest to media, but yeah.

Russia's goal is quite obvious: make people avoid the VSU and foreign mercs as the plague, as they are CM magnets. It is a wee bit of a cynical/callous approach, but pretty much lifted straight out of the U.S. GWOT doctrine. Except no random wedding parties.

Russians are still easy on them.

During the 1940's the Ukrainians murdered-off without any regard to age and sex entire unarmed defenseless ethnic Polish villages.



http://michalw.narod.ru/index-Truth.html

http://asaland.proboards.com/thread/460/land-zamosc-zamojszczyzna-1942-1944

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/over-100000-slaughtered-with-axes-pitchforks-scythes-and-knives-the-wolyn-massacre-started-76-years-ago-today-and-lasted-for-two-years-6714

Odin of Ossetia wrote:During the 1940's the Ukrainians murdered-off without any regard to age and sex entire unarmed defenseless ethnic Polish villages.

If it was not for their other doings I am sure we would all congratulate them.

A forecast

Weeb Union
@WeebUnionWar
.
14m
We may be seeing Ukraine starting their main push. With the end of summer closing in combined with the possible Ukrainian withdrawal from the east of the Oskil River and the Ukrainian independence day upcoming as well as pressure from western countries and media for results we may see Ukraine start their main push soon.

We've seen increased activity of Ukrainian assaults over the past few days after a period of "silence" where the Ukrainians had no advancements at all for a period of a week.

Ukraine has entered Robotyne twice and has now captured half of Urozhaine which makes them very close to Russia's first formal line of defense.

We now also see intensified attempts at river crossings across the dnieper.

So the day is not far where we see Ukraine put 100% at it and do their final and biggest attempt at this offensive.

Odin of Ossetia wrote:Russians are still easy on them.

During the 1940's the Ukrainians murdered-off without any regard to age and sex entire unarmed defenseless ethnic Polish villages.

And today Poland fully supports the Ukraine so what's your point?

Kupyansk Clashes: Ukraine Forces Face Encirclement Amid Russian Advance, by Ilya Tsukanov for Sputnikglobe.com. 08.11.2023.

Russian forces have advanced to within less than 7 km of Kupyansk, a Kharkov region town helping hold Ukrainian defensive lines together. What’s the area’s strategic significance? And what would its loss mean for Ukraine militarily? Sputnik reached out to veteran Russian military intelligence officer Anatoliy Matviychuk for his assessment.

Russian forces are continuing their advance toward Kupyansk, the eastern Kharkov region settlement which serves as a major regional road and rail artery.

On Thursday, Ukrainian authorities announced the mandatory evacuation of the Kupyansk district, including the town and over fifty surrounding villages.

"In the Kupyansk direction, assault detachments of the Zapad group of forces improved their positions along the front line in the course of offensive operations," Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said the same day.

Over a twenty-four our period, Konashenkov said, Russian forces "successfully repelled" seven attempted counterattacks by units of the 14th and 44thMechanized Brigades of the Ukrainian Army in villages in the Lugansk People’s Republic and Kharkov region. "Enemy losses amounted to more than 55 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, three vehicles, an M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer, and a US-made M777 artillery piece," the MoD spokesman said.

Reports on Russian efforts to make headway along the Kupyansk direction of the front first began to filter through in mid-to-late July, with the MoD reporting the capture of Molchanovo railway station, situated north of the city.

On August 7, Russian forces advanced 11 km along the front, and over 3 km into the depth of the enemy’s defenses, over a three-day period. A day later, Vitaly Ganchev, the head of the pro-Russian administration of Kharkov, said Russian troops had liberated five local settlements.

How Will Ukrainian Forces Respond?

Asked to comment on Russia’s operations in the Kupyansk direction, retired Army colonel Anatoliy Matviychuk, a veteran retired Soviet and Russian military intelligence officer and analyst with experience in Afghanistan and Syria, said that the advance will make Kiev’s forces hard pressed to fill gaps in the frontlines as their mobility is restricted by Russian superiority in air and artillery.

"First of all, this is great news that we are returning those territories which we left in the fall during the forced withdrawal. Second, we are advancing, destroying the enemy’s reserves, destroying the enemy’s manpower, equipment, and this is very important, because we’re approaching Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Effectively, we’re not only creating the prerequisites for the return of these lands, but for the destruction of the entire [enemy] group of forces in this area," Matviychuk said.

The observer says Ukrainian commanders have two options, neither of them enviable – to take the risk of deploying their reserves, or face the area's loss.

"Kiev has one corps left, somewhere in the area of 30,000-35,000 troops, but has problems with heavy equipment. Kiev is trying to bring it into battle, but hasn’t been able to succeed, since introducing it piece by piece will mean its destruction [from the ground, ed.], while bringing it in all at once is impossible due to the lack of fire support from the air and on the ground," Matviychuk said, implying that Russian forces would immediately notice and react to the attempted deployment of a large group of enemy forces.

Matviychuk cited Kiev's announced evacuation of the region as evidence that Ukrainian forces are preparing to completely surrender the area, with the evacuation likely introduced to strip Kupyansk of any useful industrial equipment and facilities, to mobilize any remaining men in the area, and gain a propaganda demonstrating that Kiev is "protecting the population of these territories from Russian aggression."

"There's no one left to mobilize already, only children, old people, the maimed and the crippled. And by the way, they don’t want to leave, because this is their home. They're called 'waiters', many of them are waiting for the arrival of the Russian army," Matviychuk said.

Kupyansk’s Strategic Significance

If the Russian advance continues and Kupriyansk is taken, its long-term significance will match that as the loss of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) this past spring, Matviychuk believes.

"This is first of all psychological damage and a drop in the morale of the army. Secondly, it will open up operational space for our forces, we can begin to perform maneuvers to encircle Ukraine's southern group of forces, closing the ring around Slavyansk and Kramatorsk [in the DPR]," he said.

"Kupyansk occupies a very advantageous position. Both to the west and to the east it is a logistical link – both roads and a railway for the transport of supplies. In general, I would call this a strategic point on whose retention the stability of the defense of this entire direction depends. The loss of Kupyansk means the loss of stability, and after that we will be able to go directly to the Kharkov direction," Matviychuk summed up.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20230811/kupyansk-clashes-ukraine-forces-face-encirclement-amid-russian-advance-1112542228.html

Svatove-Kreminna Sector
Situation as of 18:00 on August 11, 2023

https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1690026130135257089

kvs wrote:43,000 Ukr soldiers

Wanted to state the same. 
KIA is closer to 50.000 by now. Plus wounded.
This 100% is roughly 25% of what was there at the beginning of the "big counter-offensive".



Don´t know if this was captured or if it´s on the long way to Poland for "repairs". 

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (11 August 2023)

In Kupyansk direction, assault groups of the Zapad Group of Forces continued offensive actions on a broad front and improved the tactical situation near Olshana and Pershotravnyovoye (Kharkov).

In the course of active defence, 4 attacks and counterattacks of AFU 32nd, 41st, 44th, and 67th mechanised brigades were repelled near Novosyolovskye LPR, Sinkovka and Mankovka (Kherson).

The enemy losses were up to 165 servicemen, 2 AFVs, 2 pickup trucks, 1 Krab self-propelled howitzer, and 2 AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar station.

In Donetsk direction, the Yug Group of Forces' units successfully repelled 5 attack of assault groups of the AFU 10th Mountain Assault Brigade, the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade, the 59th Motorised Rifle Brigade, and the 3rd Tank Brigade close to Nevelskoye, Belogorovka, Staromikhalovka, Maloilinovka, and Veseloye DPR.

The enemy losses were up to 180 servicemen, 7 IFVs, 2 pickup trucks, 1 Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile system, 1 M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, and 2 D-20 howitzers.

In South Donetsk direction the Vostok Group of Forces thwarted an enemy reconnaissance-in-force attempt near Staromayorskoye DPR.

3 attacks of assault groups of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade and the 38th Marine Brigade have been repelled near Nikolskoye and Urozhaynoye DPR.
Up to 35 servicemen, 2 AFVs, 2 motor vehicles, and 1 D-30 howitzer were destroyed.

In Zaporozhye direction, 3 attacks of the AFU 21st Mechanised Brigade were repelled by the Vostok Group of Forces near Uspenovka and Rabotino (Zaporozhye).

The enemy losses were up to 60 servicemen, 3 motor vehicles, and one D-30 howitzer.

In Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces repelled 2 attacks of the assault groups of the AFU 68rd Infantry Brigade and the 42nd Mechanised Brigade close to Novoegorovka and Kremennaya LPR.

The enemy losses were up to 115 servicemen, 3 AFVs, and 1 D-20 howitzer.

In Kherson direction, up to 20 servicemen, 2 pickup trucks, 1 M777 artillery howitzer, 1 D-20 howitzer, as well as and 1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer were destroyed.

Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 139 areas during the day.

A temporary deployment point of foreign mercenaries has been hit near Zaporozhye.

Moreover, 4 ammunition depots of AFU 24th, 43rd, 60th mechanised brigades and the 108th Territorial Defence Brigade have been destroyed close to Toretsk DPR, Cherneshina, Liptsi (Kharkov), and Gulyai Pole (Zaporozhye).

Air defence facilities have intercepted 2 HIMARS MLRS projectiles during the day.

Moreover, 16 UAVs have been shot down close to Kupyansk (Kharkov), Lisichansk LPR, Artyomovsk, Volnovakha DPR, Oreknov and Gulyai Pole (Zaporozhye).

@Slavyangrad

They are probably waiting for the new game to start and wait for the respawn of the ones that died lost.

Someone should tell them Call Of Duty isn't the reality...