Russian special military operation in Ukraine #47

@fire

The will for Ukraine will exceed the Russians for the simple facts. Russia invaded them (not talking about whether you believe they justified or not) when you are invaded a countries will to resist is stronger then the attackers, I saw this in many countries.

The only way to break this will is to unleash brutality, make the people realize the more you resist the worse it will get.

Russia's leaving civic infrastructure intact they are not imposing fear into them so they are very much detached from the fear of war and because of this will fight to the bitter end,

Alamo mich as I disagree with him, pointed out what you have to do too break the civilians will and soldiers will to win or fight.

What Russia is currently doing will only strengthen Ukraine resolve, war is mental and psychological as well.

That is why unless the Russians change their methods Ukraine will outlast them.

As for the Russian public they will only tolerate their sons dying for so long. This isn't like in WW2 where the nazis rolled in and massacred millions and gave the Russians that legendary steel resolve to fight on as they did.

I am not saying Russia should butt rush everywhere constantly but It needs to start cutting off large formations of Ukies troops faster then Ukraine can replace them.

Because their current strat isn't going to cut it long term before their time frame closes. Yes they take little losses but Ukraine can replace their losses before Russia can capitalize on it making the impressive kill ratio pointless in a long term strategic sense.

You need to kill or capture large formations and seize on this to make progress not just kill and sit there and hope that will work out

I only hope I was able to make you understand a few things

Germany goes down, the EU collapses. Other nations were always handout receivers.

The Polish government wants to buy all those shiny weapons, but without EU money... 

They just can't help themselves. Arrogance beyond par.

The Poles know who they have to blame for that.

Evidently the green troops that have had 3 weeks training are adequate enough to prevent collapse.

The situation east of Kupyansk shows what happens if you can only send green troops to an area and got no reserves left to reinforce them.
The same situation will appear along the southern lines of contact after the "counter-offensive" ends.

Because the battle for Kharkov, for Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, nevermind the battle for Kiev - will make Mariupol and Bakhmut look like child's play..

Depends on the "defending" side. In Mariupol and Bakhmut the Ukros used a lot of "elite" units. In Mariupol they still had a lof of artillery and even AD systems (initially).
In Bakhmut they had still lot of reserves (mostly with minor abilities).
The reason Russia choose to go into Strategic Defence mode along the frontlines was to suck in all those more or less well trained troops and their equipment from the
Ukro cities and rear areas.
If the regime can only scrap together a few thousand barely trained soldiers with no heavy weapons the "Battle for Kiev" won´t last long.

What I find the biggest absurd about this situation, is the fact that Russia seems to be the only country that didn't want that war at all.
It might sound ridiculous as they have started it - yet we need to consider all the factors here.
My guess, after watching this show for almost a decade, is that Russkie finally realized that Ukraine would start the war under any circumstance. Only awaiting the moment. And the moment will be created anyhow, by destabilizing Russian borders, inflicting coups, and all that stuff.
After sizing Azov's headquarters in Mariopol, it was already clear. A whole operation was already on its way.
And watching how the Ukrowehrmacht is carrying, I have no doubts that they would have won.
Simply throwing so much meat that the republican militias wouldn't have been able to chew it all.
The biggest miscalculation Putin did, was assuming that there are anyone to talk with in the west.
And there is none.
Ukraine was already a divided private entity of the western colonizers, and that is the biggest issue here.
Russkie attacked a direct business of the Biden family, and the ones who own Biden - and the US political establishment in a wider perspective.
That is why the response was so unlogical, especially from the own Ukrainian perspective.
Watching that all, people might forget that Minsk Agreements were all about Ukraine retaining its territorial integrity, and both republics returning to Kiev's control.
Imagine. It was Moscow the only player sticked to the agreements, pushing for Ukraine's integrity, and ending the conflict at minimal cost.
It is so insane, that without following the case from the very beginning, hardly anyone would believe in that.

According to this news article on a Dutch newssite the UKR broke through a ''difficult RUS defensive line and that from now on their offensive action will go on quicker.

Anyone who can shed a light on this so-called break through?

https://www.ad.nl/buitenland/oekraiense-troepen-breken-door-moeilijkste-russische-verdedigingslinie-heen-vanaf-nu-zal-het-sneller-gaan~ada80172/

The advantage in artillery hardly helps Russia then... Russia has not captured even 1% of Ukrainian territory in 2023, all gains made are really tiny.

Capturing territory is not the goal.

Eliminating enemy troops and weapons and equipment is the goal and that is going exceptionally well.

Without big arrow offensives winning this war is not possible.

Occupying large swaths of Ukrainian territory is not the goal of Russia, and would not win the war.

For them, having numerical advantage is necessary. I wanna see Bagration-like offensives with 3-4x Ru numerical advantage breaking the back of the Ukro army. So far none of this can be seen.

To achieve that they would need to have a few rounds of call ups and quite a few companies would cease production because of lack of workers, which will effect the economy.

Right now Russia is winning and the west are getting desperate and Kiev is failing by throwing men at Russian lines of defence because there is nothing else they can do.

This the russian strategy for the last year.

And probably the next year until Kiev runs out of men and then they will start pushing forward in places there are gaps or weaknesses... but as shown by Kievs forces pushing forward into mined areas under enemy artillery is dangerous slow work that would be costly if you did it half arsed... like Kiev is doing it.

None of those things affects the MIC where cost is no object. In the medium to long term capabilities will degrade but for now they are capable. They can buy metals from the USA, Canada, India, China etc etc.

It is the US that prints money, not Europe... and they are not just paying for the Ukrainian government and weapons and equipment, they are also paying for Ukrainian refugees in Europe too... they have started asking us to take some...

Looking how they can't deliver more than 10 items for every weapon they promised to Kiev they production capacity isn't super.

Obviously Europe could do better if it actually felt threatened, but this is about arming Kiev to damage Moscow... they couldn't send thousands of tanks and aircraft and millions of shells if they wanted to.

No. Not at all. I am contending that Russia has to be more brazen in the Black sea. And be less polite.

You want them to act like the west would... well maybe that is why Russia is Russia and why this conflict is happening in the first place.

Thankfully this stupidity from the US and EU has woken Russia up and the discounts and cheap materials time is over... Russia used to let European and Japanese fishermen fish in Russian waters and then can the fish in their own countries and sell the fish to Russia at ten times the domestic price they pay themselves.

This conflict is changing a lot of things and mostly for the better.

You have to take into account that everything they're saying could be a lie. About production plans and so on too. In reality they would be fools if they haven't got plans already in motion and at an advanced stage for ramping up production, not only against Russia but moreover against China too.

I hope they have because it will be 4-5 years before it gets to a useful level for Ukraine and probably 5 years after that before they can look at developing brand new stuff that can replace the current stuff they are using and have in production long enough to fill up the reserves they would need.

If NATO succeeds in starting to move it's economy into a war footing with the rapid foundation of new industrial capacities, maintain political cohesion of their bloc without defections or coups or revolutions, and enact at least a partial mobilization of their populations - then they can win against Russia, in fact probably will win.

Not without a total reform to change their MIC to companies that care about defence and not so much about profit....

Eastern Europe has just sent all its Cold War Warsaw Pact stuff to Kiev and they expect it all to be replaced by modern expensive western stuff that is like ten times more expensive to buy and ten times more expensive to operate, and the US has the same problem... I suspect a lot of European countries will be looking at South Korean tanks and armoured vehicles because Abrams use too much fuel and the German Leopard is clearly shit and its replacement wont be ready for 10 years let alone in production for anyone other than Germany...

And inflation is high so any money they borrow will be earning top interest which they also have to pay back.

Any ideas what the local population in newly incorporated territories thinks about being a part of Russia?

I would guess they will do as they are told like they did when the nazis from Kiev arrived and started killing people who didn't hate Russians.

At the very least they will want peace and appreciate that Russia will build and repair, whereas Kiev will continue to funnel any money they get to beachhouses and islands around the world.

Don't assume the same will happen if they take on a bloc of nations with over 700m population that deliver most of the advanced tech on the planet.

The fight in Ukraine is about kicking out the American overlords and their Ukrainian nazi puppets and then letting the Ukrainian people start again, either as part of Russia, or as independent states... they will get to decide.

Any conflict with Poland or the Baltic states or Finland will be brutal and nasty and likely nuclear... Russia does not care about Europeans any more, they are the enemy trying to bleed Russia of resources and assets and sending money and weapons and ammo to Kiev to murder Russian soldiers and civilians... there will be no kid gloves needed in such a conflict.

I am glad Putin would never be so unwise. He is a smart man. Prob the best leader on the planet today. I hope Russia can get this finished.

He is a smart man , which is why the west hates him so much, but he clearly realises that the west wants this to be over faster than Russia does but they want Kiev to win, so that is not going to happen. The alternative is to surrender Kiev and let Russia win and they wont do that either so they think they can bleed Russia and get Russia to do something stupid, but Putin knows this conflict is destroying the west and not destroying Russia.

Russia is being damaged but planes crash and things catch fire anyway, to rush this conflict with some silly encirclements and ultimatums will create Leningrad like sieges that the local nazis will love to be a part of, and they can continue to brutalise the locals.

When more Ukrainians realise they wont win and that the sooner this stops the better the outcome will be for them because they will stop losing thousands of men per day, then the chances they will start to do something for themselves and stop this.

Russian forces can then move forward and pick up the enemies laid down arms and start looking for war criminals and hold referendums so the people can decide their own future.

Its a tragedy that has to end ASAP.

This tragedy has to be ended properly or it will just repeat in 5 years time perhaps with different results.

When the entire Air Force of NATO nations starts attacking Russia, then they are taking on NATO. Until then they are fighting pawns armed with NATOs rubbish.

If you still think air power would make any difference then I suspect you have not been paying attention... HATOs air power is impressive but would be quickly grounded... it is not able to operate from unpaved fields like most Soviet aircraft can.

The safest assumption is to prepare for the worst . What is the worst that could happen ?

Expecting the worst from others might protect you from disappointment, but it also prevents you making friends and in actual fact ends up with you making enemies out of people who could have been friends or just people you know.

There is no benefit to negotiate with NATO until they are is a full position to dictate terms. tens of thousand of Russian boys are dead. The sooner this can be ended on RUSSIAS TERMS the better for all. And even better for Americans and Europeans. After Russia defeats Ukraine, hopefully they will be less willing to foment wars.

It is not going to end on Russias terms until Kievs army is either defeated or turns on him and kicks the US and HATO and the EU out of their part of the country.

That isn't Russia's responsibility. If the west wants to increase the heat, they will get burned. Are they willing to? Lets see. But really, it isn't Russia's choice one way or another. They are doing what they must.

The German economy is being damaged... and not just theirs, also Finland and Sweden and lots of other countries are having problems and the US is saying you are not on fire it is just a nice sunny day... what you need is more gas on the fire and that will solve things... the sanctions weren't the problem, the problem was not enough sanctions that didn't go far enough... except obviously a Russia uranium ban because America imported more Russian uranium this year than in several years previous... maybe they know what is coming soon...

If Russia cannot subdue the Ukies AF, are people seriously stupid enough to be claiming Russia could neutralize all of NATOs AF in ten min....and we do have planes capable of carrying ask with 200m range .

HATO would collapse if they took the air losses the Ukraine AF has taken... it now consists of rats hiding in dark corners... sometimes getting airborne long enough to launch a missile and get shot down and sometimes not even that.

HATO airforce intervention would be described as a target rich environment... don't think they would shoot them all down but a lot will be burning... and once they start introducing them their bases in Europe and other targets in Europe become fair game... have you worked out how to shoot down their hypersonic missiles yet?

Russias biggest problem would be deciding what to destroy first.

Yeap you get it, Russia cannot afford to let this war carry on for another five years.

Actually the opposite... it makes more sense to stretch it out and do as much damage to the west as possible than finish it now and risk a repeat in 5 years time where HATO secretly trains Orcs in Exile and fully equips and arms them in secret and then attacks in 5 years time...

I'm not an expert on military strategy, I have no training as an officer, just this armchair general stuff from forums such as these and the various computer wargames I played and some books that I read.

I am not either, but if it does turn out to last 10 years then Russia can always decide to start destroying infrastructure the way the west does to destroy the spirit of the country they happen to be attacking... there is a lot of real damage they can do like destroying farming machinery and truck transport and burning crops and storage areas for just any thing... once the entire civilian population start to suffer how long will they continue to support Zelensky... but Putin is not being that sort of bastard because he is not American or British... who happily leveled entire German cities and sent farmers to concentration camps for reeducation long before the commies ever did.

Agree 10 min is impossible, flight time of Topol and Bulava is 30 minutes.

Actually for close targets in Europe... 10 minutes would be just about right... it is targets 10-12 thousand kms or more away that take longer...

The only way to break this will is to unleash brutality, make the people realize the more you resist the worse it will get.

They are Russian, not uncouth barbarian Americans... they can save that for Plan B.

What I find the biggest absurd about this situation, is the fact that Russia seems to be the only country that didn't want that war at all.
It might sound ridiculous as they have started it - yet we need to consider all the factors here.

The irony is that it is actually the only country involved that wants the war to end and never wanted the war in the first place, but they were not given a choice and so if there is going to be a war it needs to achieve the goal of not becoming an endless war... and with an enemy that can't be trusted that is supported by countries that can't be trusted, then it needs to end by ending the country as it is now...

The bastard is the main actor in demilitarizing Ukraine, it is only normal that Russia has still not touched him...

It would look more democratic for Ukrainians to remove him when they come to the realisation that he is a liar and a thief and is not working for their interests... if Russia kills him he becomes a martyr... and he is so incompetent they might actually start to become more effective...

According to this news article on a Dutch newssite the UKR broke through a ''difficult RUS defensive line and that from now on their offensive action will go on quicker.

Anyone who can shed a light on this so-called break through?

Would guess the Orcs concentrated a lot of their forces in a small area and broke into a defensive line... the Russians likely retreated and are about to slaughter them with artillery and Helicopter attacks in the bulge sticking into Russian lines with their escape about to be covered in a fresh large minefield...

....and we do have planes capable of carrying ask with 200m range . wrote:

So how many NATO planes can carry missiles with a range of 200km?

There is a channel on YouTube where they regularly post videos about the restoration of Mariupol by Russia. Let me guess - you won't see this in the Western media.

in this video, at 0:27, an advertising poster is visible: "Mortgage at 2% per annum for the entire term" is a special program for new Russian territories. In Moscow, for example, now without preferential programs, you can count on a mortgage only at 12-15% per annum.

1:45-1:52
Announcement of recruitment to work at the UMMC enterprise (Southern Mining and Metallurgical Complex) in the city of Alchevsk. Salary range for workers: 40 000 - 110 000 rubles per month
For managers, specialists, employees: 60 000 - 105 000 rubles per month.

Construction workers engaged in the restoration of Mariupol and the surrounding area currently receive up to 300,000 rubles a month - in connection with which there is a shortage of personnel throughout Russia, since most of the workers have left for Mariupol.

LMFS wrote:
Finally, I don't find it illogical what has happened in 404. It is fake country turned a colony turned slaughterhouse where some Russians were taught to define themselves as the opposite of other Russians, the only meaning of Ukraine is to deny, usurp and plunder Russia for the West. Once the masses have been brainwashed to that level and a criminal junta has been put in place, there is nothing holding back the monster. Now it is even worse, since Zelensky&Co need this massacre from going on for as long as possible, peace negotiations will require to provide excuses to the population and inadequate leadership (who would have believed that a clown would qualify to run the country in such challenging conditions) is clearly the first in the list. The bastard is the main actor in demilitarizing Ukraine, it is only normal that Russia has still not touched him...

I didn't mean it is illogical per se. It is illogical from the Ukrainian well-being perspective.
Russia subsidized Ukraine for its entire nezavisimost. We talk about tens of billions of euro benefits, having different sources.
Biting the hand that feeds you ...

And as soon as these two issues are resolved in Russia's favour, the war will stop. wrote:

It won't end. Ukraine will declare that it will not join NATO, after which NATO will very soon enter Ukraine, arming them even more. Russia should know that any declarations and signatures on papers are worth nothing. NATO will be in Ukraine, it depends on Russia how far it will go in Ukraine, on which territory NATO will deploy.

I will be satisfied enough if Odessa is Russian territory.

thegopnik wrote:I will be satisfied enough if Odessa is Russian territory.

Currently, they do not even control the entire Donbas...

https://t.me/fighter_bomber/13797

a lot of their forces in a small area and broke into a defensive line

Not even that. The western "experts" in the MSM declared some of the villages in which there is fighting going on in the last couples of days to be
part ot fhe "first main line of defence" while in reality they are part of the security or grey zone.

GarryB wrote " Expecting the worst from others might protect you from disappointment, but it also prevents you making friends and in actual fact ends up with you making enemies out of people who could have been friends or just people you know."

You don't have to forgo friendships, just have in mind the fact that friend and foe is a product of external and internal conditions. And prepare yourself for disappointments. In nature, the strongest creatures are loners and the weakest are social. Therefore strength should play a part in our thinking, of what is the worst! In the worst of conditions, Switzerland will remain neutral! The other factor is the internal mental environment. If we have nations with a colonial history, such as most of western Europe, especially after their " victory" in the middle East, the ability to destroy nations, has given the impression of invincibility. This together with their relative physical strength, is a dangerous combination. I always thought that Iran will be on the menu, after Syria, but they missed the target again, and the burden of de-hubris-dization, fell on Russia. This is the worst that can happen! The hungry Lions come to feed. Or all of NATO at war with Russia, on several fronts. We don't determine the physical or mental conditions by our efforts or wishful thinking. It is the physical potential of a situation that decides. In such a case, useless to confront NATO conventionally. Put all conventional efforts into Ukraine war. Answer non-conventionally afterwards.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:@fire

The will for Ukraine will exceed the Russians for the simple facts. Russia invaded them (not talking about whether you believe they justified or not) when you are invaded a countries will to resist is stronger then the attackers, I saw this in many countries.

The only way to break this will is to unleash brutality, make the people realize the more you resist the worse it will get.

Russia's leaving civic infrastructure intact they are not imposing fear into them so they are very much detached from the fear of war and because of this will fight to the bitter end,

Alamo mich as I disagree with him, pointed out what you have to do too break the civilians will and soldiers will to win or fight.

What Russia is currently doing will only strengthen Ukraine resolve, war is mental and psychological as well.

That is why unless the Russians change their methods Ukraine will outlast them.

As for the Russian public they will only tolerate their sons dying for so long. This isn't like in WW2 where the nazis rolled in and massacred millions and gave the Russians that legendary steel resolve to fight on as they did.

I am not saying Russia should butt rush everywhere constantly but It needs to start cutting off large formations of Ukies troops faster then Ukraine can replace them.

Because their current strat isn't going to cut it long term before their time frame closes. Yes they take little losses but Ukraine can replace their losses before Russia can capitalize on it making the impressive kill ratio pointless in a long term strategic sense.

You need to kill or capture large formations and seize on this to make progress not just kill and sit there and hope that will work out

I only hope I was able to make you understand a few things

The will to resist is so strong that what % of the population left? lol. Seriously. They are down to maybe 18m people from close to 40m.
Capturing large formations, then what do you do with them? Just take out the fuel and its over. Ukraine is a massive nation, cannot conduct war without transport

There will always be people who will flee at first, its the ones that remain who will fight to the bitter end.

Take them, prisoner.

Much easier said then done but that is merely one of the things they need to do, to defeat the Ukie forces. Not the only thing

You don't have to forgo friendships, just have in mind the fact that friend and foe is a product of external and internal conditions.

What sort of potential for friendship can there be with someone who is expecting you are going to stab them if they turn their back on you, or do not believe anything they say to you because they suspect you are lying to them and want to hurt them the first chance you get?

They are going to think you are crazy... are they wrong?

GarryB wrote:

You don't have to forgo friendships, just have in mind the fact that friend and foe is a product of external and internal conditions.

What sort of potential for friendship can there be with someone who is expecting you are going to stab them if they turn their back on you, or do not believe anything they say to you because they suspect you are lying to them and want to hurt them the first chance you get?

They are going to think you are crazy... are they wrong?

Like a crazy GF lol.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:There will always be people who will flee at first, its the ones that remain who will fight to the bitter end.

Take them, prisoner.

Much easier said then done but that is merely one of the things they need to do, to defeat the Ukie forces. Not the only thing

Many people don' have the means to flee. So just 'cos they stay does not mean they are vehement. In fact quite a few stay to welcome Russia, although there are many opposed as you go further west.

$12k is a new rate for a man smuggling via the Danube to Romania.
Confirmed today.
My Ukrainian employee was just collecting cash for bailing out his younger brother kidnapped straight from the street.
Just kidnapped. A car stopped, three guys jumped out, and pulled him into a van.
Krivy Rog.
Those things are real folks. Just real.

The Ukro theater will not end before there is two more fronts opened.

Just look at the idiocy created in Kazakhstan by Tokaev. This idiot is openly working against Russia with all red lines that will definitely provoke war. He signed an Agreement back in 2021 to create US biolabs on Kazakh soil, even more signed recently. Under him openly supporting a fascist Nazi state like Ukraine is all fine while everyone is sued or fined for even having a Russian flag. The open demonization of Russia and Russians is widely accepted instead of surpressing nationalism and anti-russian sentiment. The same Ukro propaganda talk is common of "bring back Kazakh territory like Omksaya Oblast', Astrakhanskaya Oblast', Tjuminskaya Oblast', Orenburgskaya Oblast' and Tomskaya Oblast'. That rhetoric is bold and does not come out of stupidity alone. They are getting told and the same "securities" Georgia and Ukraine were promised. This war is inevitable.

The reason for Kazakhstan being a front is A) they are dumb enough and bordering Russia B) Kazakhstan is part of the turkic-language pan-turkic world Turkey itself is trying to create. Turkey is a disobedient dog of the US and is not obeying. It needs to be punished. They will either go and help Kazakhstan when shit happens or they will be not stupid and refrain from it, will lose trust among the turkic-language countries and take damage as the "leader" of this new alliance they are creating. It's a lose-lose situation for Turkey, a giant Dick up the Ass for Kazakhstan, because it will definitely lose some parts of it's territory and roughly 10% of it's population, not to mention the flood of roughly 2-3 mln refugees to bordering countries.

The other front we know is Polen and time will tell how stupid that will end.