Russian special military operation in Ukraine #47

JohninMK wrote:There is no way we can ramp up production, the West is bust and tied up in bureaucracy. Look at this from today, it might be the often sensationalist Bild but they have a point.

What happens when Germany can't fund the EU and all its new debts on Ukraine? Who is actually going to pay the bill for all those refurb Leo 1 etc etc?

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
.
3h
For Germany, a black day has come. The country's economy is on the brink of collapse. The newspaper Bild reports that German companies are forced to reduce production, and the competitiveness of strong sectors has fallen to the lowest level in the last 30 years.

The problem also lies within the German government itself: officials and politicians have introduced so many new rules and restrictions (including those related to anti-Russian sanctions) that they are becoming confused in them. This leads to even more bureaucracy.

Experts surveyed by the publication believe that the situation is so critical that Germany may introduce strict credit and monetary regulation. In particular, they may freeze interest rates on loans.

Nqagu Mabena
@NqaguM
·
2h
Germany is already in a recession. Germany goes down, the EU collapses. They are major contributors to the union,  the UK did brexit and left. Germany and the UK were the major contributors. Other nations were always handout receivers.

It really depends on what timeframe you are talking about. 6m - no way, 12m some, 24m double, 36month shitload. All assuming there is political support that NATO needs to go all in. (i.e mass insanity)

mnztr wrote:
It really depends on what timeframe you are talking about. 6m - no way, 12m some, 24m double, 36month shitload. All assuming there is political support that NATO needs to go all in. (i.e  mass insanity)

Maybe, but strangely it probably depends on next winter in Germany. A hard one that uses up the gas stocks by the end of January and all bets are off.

They just can't help themselves. Arrogance beyond par.

If that was on target there won't be much left. Life, death and cremation all in one instant.

mnztr wrote:
When the entire Air Force of NATO nations starts attacking Russia, then they are taking on NATO. Until then they are fighting pawns armed with NATOs rubbish.

Dude ...
Just stop, as it is getting ridiculous.
NATO has a perfectly ZERO planes capable to carry AAMs with more than 200 km range.
While the bloody Russkie have some 300 or so.
Doing 300+.
Meteor distribution totals some 200 pcs among the all buyers, including far East.
Its price is insane, like 2 mln E a piece.
When "NATO" with "entire force" starts attacking Russia, all the airfields in the theatre space will cease to operate in about 10 min.
This was a game already played by much more serious people.
With a known result.
Haven't you been taught that?
Ooooh ... I get that. You haven't.

Can not easily predict the future . All realistic possibilities should be considered . The best plan , like a Swiss Army knife , has value under all possible circumstances . Simply can not rely on information , not backed up by facts . Can not predict actual enemy strength . Their actual production capacity or reserves . Can not say , who may or may not participate further in war , and on what side ! Location of and size of production facility can not be known . More than thousands of miles of underground tunnels in many countries . The safest assumption is to prepare for the worst . What is the worst that could happen ?

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (26 August 2023)

In Kupyansk direction, the units of the Zapad Group of Forces, have improved the situation along the front line. In addition, 5 attacks by assault detachments of 115th mechanised, 25th airborne and 68th jeager brigades of the AFU have been repelled close to Sinkovka (Kharkov), Novosyolovskoye, Raigorodka, and Novoegorovka LPR.

The enemy losses were up to 50 servicemen, 4 AFVs, 2 motor vehicles, 1 Krab self-propelled artillery system, and 2 D-20 howitzers.

1 field ammunition depot of the AFU 103rd Territorial Defence Brigade has been destroyed near Kislovka (Kharkov).

In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian grouping of troops repelled 3 attacks by units of the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU Strategic Reserve near Rabotino (Zaporozhye).

The enemy losses were up to 115 servicemen, 7 AFVs, 4 motor vehicles, 1 M777 artillery system, and 1 M119 towed howitzer, 1 FH-70 gun, 1 D-30 howitzer, as well as 1 AN/TPQ-36 radar station of counter-battery warfare.

In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces repelled 6 attacks by AFU assault groups close to Minkovka, Kleshcheevka, and Krasnogorovka DPR.

The enemy losses were up to 225 servicemen, 3 AFVs, 2 motor vehicles, 2 Msta-B howitzers, as well as D-20 and D-30 howitzers.

1 field ammunition depot of 54th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU has been destroyed near Netailovo DPR.

In Krasny Liman direction, as a result of actions by units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, 2 attacks by assault groups of 63rd and 67th mechanised brigades of the AFU have been repelled close to Chervonaya Dibrova LPR.

The enemy losses were up to 60 servicemen, 2 AFVs, 1 pickup truck, and 2 D-30 howitzers.

In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces have repelled 2 attacks by the 31st Marine Brigade near Staromayorskoye DPR.

The actions of 1 SRG have been suppressed near Urozhaynoye DPR.

The enemy losses were up to 200 servicemen, 1 tank, 4 AFVs, 3 motor vehicles, 1 M109 Paladin, and 1 Krab self-propelled artillery systems, and 2 D-30 howitzers.

In Kherson direction, the enemy losses wer up to 40 servicemen, 5 motor vehicles, 1 M777 artillery system, as well as Msta-B and D-30 howitzers.

Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised manpower and military hardware in 139 areas.

1 command post of the 100th Territorial Defence Brigade has been hit close to Torskoye DPR.

1 P-18 radar station for detecting and tracking aerial targets has been destroyed near Chuguevo (Dnepropetrovsk).

Air defence facilities have shot down 12 projectiles launched by HIMARS MLRS.

37 UAVs have been destroyed close to Olshana (Kharkov), Volcheyarovka, Privolye, Zhitlovka LPR, Vasilyevka, Kirillovka, Yakovlevka DPR, Ilchenkovo and Tarasovka (Zaporozhye).

@Slavyangrad

JohninMK wrote:

mnztr wrote:
It really depends on what timeframe you are talking about. 6m - no way, 12m some, 24m double, 36month shitload. All assuming there is political support that NATO needs to go all in. (i.e  mass insanity)

Maybe, but strangely it probably depends on next winter in Germany. A hard one that uses up the gas stocks by the end of January and all bets are off.

Germany won't run out of gas. At worst they will pay through the nose. Some other poorer nation will run out and pay a higher price for the moronic decisions of these assholes.

JohninMK wrote:They just can't help themselves. Arrogance beyond par.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1695438857473298721

Well if they go on a rampage and start killing Poles I cannot say Poland, as a nation, did not deserve it.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:The advantage in artillery hardly helps Russia then... Russia has not captured even 1% of Ukrainian territory in 2023, all gains made are really tiny.

Without big arrow offensives winning this war is not possible. For them, having numerical advantage is necessary. I wanna see Bagration-like offensives with 3-4x Ru numerical advantage breaking the back of the Ukro army. So far none of this can be seen.

The artillery has been aerating and fertilizing the soil before it gets captured. Yes there will need to be a big arrow offensive if there is going to be a victory. It needs to be a hammer blow that has one or 2 major fronts, with 2-3 weeks or 100 missiles a night air power blasting any ammo dumps and attack helos killing anything that heads to the front.

What is it with these sly posters here as of late trying to convey to us the pressing need for Russia to conclude the war as soon as possible?
Hinting at doom and gloom and terrible consequences otherwise.

Couldn't have anything to do with the backdoor US attempts to open negotiations with Russia and offer it a raw deal, could it now?

You want the war over that urgently, well then appeal to your NATO friends to pack their bags and vacate the premises. The war will be over tomorrow. Russia however has nowhere to back off to. It has done nothing but retreat all the way from East Germany to Kaliningrad and has done little else over the previous 30 years. Sorry but enough is enough.

flamming_python wrote:   Then what are you talking about?

Because the battle for Kharkov, for Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, nevermind the battle for Kiev - will make Mariupol and Bakhmut look like child's play..

Common... The initial thunder runs were not typical combined arms offensives at all. They were extremely under manned. There was a big political/intelligence component.

A proper big arrow offensive would be over manned and highly concentrated with enough men to properly encircle enemy troops.

As far as Kiev goes, I don't think it is worth saving. If the regime wants to completely destroy it then who cares. It is probably for the better. Just use civilian corridors like they did with Aleppo. More human capital for Russia and Belarus. What is the downside of leveling Kiev ?

Evidently the green troops that have had 3 weeks training are adequate enough to prevent collapse. I just don't see the Ukraine military collapsing. Chewing through 200,000 Ukraine troops a year is too much work. Maybe after we see any evidence that the country is tired of being fed into a tree grinder, we can talk. But its going on 2 years with no end in sight.

flamming_python wrote:What is it with these sly posters here as of late trying to convey to us the pressing need for Russia to conclude the war as soon as possible?
Hinting at doom and gloom and terrible consequences otherwise.

Couldn't have anything to do with the backdoor US attempts to open negotiations with Russia and offer it a raw deal, could it now?

You want the war over that urgently, well then appeal to your NATO friends to pack their bags and vacate the premises. The war will be over tomorrow. Russia however has nowhere to back off to. It has done nothing but retreat all the way from East Germany to Kaliningrad and has done little else over the previous 30 years. Sorry but enough is enough.

I said nothing of ending the war urgently. I am just telling you that the US will repeat this process every year for the next 5 years if Russia doesn't change anything on the ground. They are already starting to build the 2024 spring offensive. While copying Russia's defensive lines over winter. How does that help Russia?

flamming_python wrote:What is it with these sly posters here as of late trying to convey to us the pressing need for Russia to conclude the war as soon as possible?
Hinting at doom and gloom and terrible consequences otherwise.

Couldn't have anything to do with the backdoor US attempts to open negotiations with Russia and offer it a raw deal, could it now?

You want the war over that urgently, well then appeal to your NATO friends to pack their bags and vacate the premises. The war will be over tomorrow. Russia however has nowhere to back off to. It has done nothing but retreat all the way from East Germany to Kaliningrad and has done little else over the previous 30 years. Sorry but enough is enough.

There is no benefit to negotiate with NATO until they are is a full position to dictate terms. tens of thousand of Russian boys are dead. The sooner this can be ended on RUSSIAS TERMS the better for all. And even better for Americans and Europeans. After Russia defeats Ukraine, hopefully they will be less willing to foment wars.

Does anyone still trust this Rybar fucker? I don't, They basically supported the Prigozin mutiny 

He has a new hot take about scandals and shortages of ammo near Kherson. And how ukraine is going to occupy the whole grey zone. And all the anti Shoigu twats are lapping it up 

Some interesting comments in the thread. like this one 

Here we go: anti Shoiguists crawling out their basements. Because you know, in war, it is NOT allowed for Ru soldiers to die on the front line, because Ru is privileged, and every time soldiers screw up and die, it's Shoigu's fault.
People spreading B.S. naratives like that are either naive like Eve taking a bite of apple, or SNAKES (and Kunts)

https://t.me/c/1762647559/152884

flamming_python wrote:What is it with these sly posters here as of late trying to convey to us the pressing need for Russia to conclude the war as soon as possible?
Hinting at doom and gloom and terrible consequences otherwise.

Couldn't have anything to do with the backdoor US attempts to open negotiations with Russia and offer it a raw deal, could it now?

You want the war over that urgently, well then appeal to your NATO friends to pack their bags and vacate the premises. The war will be over tomorrow. Russia however has nowhere to back off to. It has done nothing but retreat all the way from East Germany to Kaliningrad and has done little else over the previous 30 years. Sorry but enough is enough.

Well not for me. I want the war to end because I know the Nutzis in the US and their lackeys in western Eutope don't see how escalation at some point could lead to a horrific nuclear exchange.  Also, how do I appeal to my "NATO friends." I live in a country where people like doxxing and destroying your ability to work if you dare disagree with the leader of the "free world" and his right to slur his speech and take naps while the fires he sets the world over for "liberal democracy" and "American exceptionalism" burn out of control.  I have argued with idiots who are okay with nuclear war and dying in an inferno as long as it means Putin is no longer in Russia.  How the hell do you argue with someone who takes a position that extreme and views any disagreement with Biden as being "treason?"

U.S can send as many F-16s they want but the reason why NATO air power has not been effective is because their AWACS, Global Hawk have been kept far away from Russian airspace by the RuAF.

If Russia cannot subdue the Ukies AF, are people seriously stupid enough to be claiming Russia could neutralize all of NATOs AF in ten min....and we do have planes capable of carrying ask with 200m range .


The BS the armchair experts say here is fing comedy

Backman wrote:

I said nothing of ending the war urgently. I am just telling you that the US will repeat this process every year for the next 5 years if Russia doesn't change anything on the ground. They are already starting to build the 2024 spring offensive. While copying Russia's defensive lines over winter. How does that help Russia?

Yeap you get it, Russia cannot afford to let this war carry on for another five years.

Sure playing the defensive game is nice but Ukraine has enough men left to fight Russia for a decade at this pointand Russia ain't fighting this war for a decade more.

Unless things thing they will continue to make far to little progress and fail to take places lie Odessa and if they fail to take these places then honestly there sacrificed a lot to gain a little and say hello to NATO in Ukraine

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Backman wrote:

I said nothing of ending the war urgently. I am just telling you that the US will repeat this process every year for the next 5 years if Russia doesn't change anything on the ground. They are already starting to build the 2024 spring offensive. While copying Russia's defensive lines over winter. How does that help Russia?

Yeap you get it, Russia cannot afford to let this war carry on for another five years.

Sure playing the defensive game is nice but Ukraine has enough men left to fight Russia for a decade at this pointand Russia ain't fighting this war for a decade more.

Unless things thing they will continue to make far to little progress and fail to take places lie Odessa and if they fail to take these places then honestly there sacrificed a lot to gain a little and say hello to NATO in Ukraine

Russia will fight until victory.

There is no alternative unless NATO agrees to get lost, it's as simple as that.

You can argue that domestic support will collapse in Russia. You all seem to be assuming a great deal about Russia while not even living here, but okay. Yet in the same breath you assume that it will hold in the Ukraine until they've literally sent the very last man in the country into battle. Totally unrealistic.
For that matter you assume that the lesser yet very real losses of NATO member states will be tolerated for longer than Russia can fight the war too, along with the mounting economic problems in Europe.

I'm not an expert on military strategy, I have no training as an officer, just this armchair general stuff from forums such as these and the various computer wargames I played and some books that I read.
But I can see the need for a big arrow offensive to knock the Ukraine out for good. Because yes, there is something to be said for the panic and pressure that it can create, what we saw at the beginning of the war when the Ukraine could barely keep up sending men to Kiev.
However I just trust that Russian command will find the time and place for it without mine or others input. They have access to more facts than any of us. They will know when Ukrainian morale is dropping by the rate of surrender and other metrics.
Alternatively there could be a political fracture in Kiev, if the elite there are convinced that they have no chance to win or that NATO is moving to ditch them. This sounds less likely as they're all a bunch of corrupt, amoral, self-serving fkers none of whom will ever stick their neck out to attempt something like a bomb plot against the Fuhrer.. they have no principles or sympathy for their own people and will sooner sacrifice all of them than take any personal risk. But let's say Russian intelligence believes it's possible. Then it's a matter of exercising patience until something like that happens, and then launching advances from all directions and taking advantage of the confusion to hopefully force the surrender of entire brigades and cities at once.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:If Russia cannot subdue the Ukies AF,  are people seriously stupid enough to be claiming Russia could neutralize all of NATOs AF in ten min....and we do have planes capable of carrying ask with 200m range .


The BS the armchair experts say here is fing comedy

Agree 10 min is impossible, flight time of Topol and Bulava is 30 minutes.

Agree 10 min is impossible, flight time of Topol and Bulava is 30 minutes. wrote:

But that's for purposes in CONUS. All NATO air bases in Europe are within reach of Kinzhal and Cirkon, which will reach their destination in a maximum of 10 minutes.

And that is why in my private opinion this war should have been carried directly to these thugs.
As long as they can do disco in Kiev, dine at fine restaurants, and all their assets are safe - they don't give a shit.
West is pumping insane money inside the 404, making it one giant laundering business. They are getting rich every day. This war can last till the last poor chochol can be hunted down from the street. It would take 100 FABs to level the whole district between Kozynka and Dnepr rivers.
They can be informed in half an hour advance, I am not bloodthirsty. They can even make a cluster out of the whole area, and level each cell day by day, asking if they want more every time after. I wonder how many days will be needed to watch Cocainsky being hanged by his balls at the very first tree.