Russian special military operation in Ukraine #47

mnztr wrote:
Oh come.on. germany and europen make fantastic high tech machines.service industry was created as manufacturing is so freakin efficient and automated. Just compare how long russia takes to build a nuclear aub vs the usa. I am not saying russian subs are not incredible. Look at tesla look at space x. Look at german cars and airbus. Saying the west has no industrial capacity and cannot create more is nonaense

You may not have noticed but Germany's industrial might seems, particularly under the pressure of increased energy costs, to be draining away, as evidenced by the sobering figures for this year. There is a trend to start importing much more processed raw materials rather than try to smelt etc them themselves. The US decision to eliminate Russian energy from Europe (as part of the Ukraine package) is, as intended by them, having serious impacts.

Whether the Greens liked it or not, Europe's prosperity was built firmly on the foundations of Russian energy. That is gone.

The advantage in artillery hardly helps Russia then... Russia has not captured even 1% of Ukrainian territory in 2023, all gains made are really tiny.

Without big arrow offensives winning this war is not possible. For them, having numerical advantage is necessary. I wanna see Bagration-like offensives with 3-4x Ru numerical advantage breaking the back of the Ukro army. So far none of this can be seen.

JohninMK wrote:

You may not have noticed but Germany's industrial might seems, particularly under the pressure of increased energy costs, to be draining away, as evidenced by the sobering figures for this year. There is a trend to start importing much more processed raw materials rather than try to smelt etc them themselves. The US decision to eliminate Russian energy from Europe (as part of the Ukraine package) is, as intended by them, having serious impacts.

Whether the Greens liked it or not, Europe's prosperity was built firmly on the foundations of Russian energy. That is gone.

Russian cheap energy AND the redistribution of their own money that the very same Russia has spent heavily buckbuying the industrial/technological output.
Russia was among the biggest buyers of high added value Germany production.
Trains, turbines, pipes, agriculture equipment, cars.
They used to buy cheap Russian energy and resources, and turned that into a final product with extremely high added value, selling that back to the same Russkie. And having an enormous market for service, spares, etc well ahead. We talk about a 30 bln E market, where they get a positive trade balance.
Imagine : importing low value raw resources mostly, using them for production, and selling back the goods made of it with extremely high profit ...
It's gone.

mnztr wrote:
Oh come.on. germany and europen make fantastic high tech machines.service industry was created as manufacturing is so freakin efficient and automated. Just compare how long russia takes to build a nuclear aub vs the usa. I am not saying russian subs are not incredible. Look at tesla look at space x. Look at german cars and airbus. Saying the west has no industrial capacity and cannot create more is nonaense

Soviets were bullding nuclear sub quickly (could finish one in one year, Typhoon was 4 years). Russia doesn't need one year for one sub, it would quickly have no more order and thousands people would be jobless. They don't need hundreds of subs like the soviets anyway.

German cars are full of parts coming from everywhere around the world. They mainly fo the assembly in Gzrmany to stick the "made in Germany" sticker. French PSA (Peugeot Citroen) makes only 30% of its cars in France.

Airbus is also european and having one site destroyed would impact all the production. Military speaking airbus isn't a top player. Dassault for exemple has a very limited production rate. Right now french air force doesn't get new rafales because of external orders.

Russia isn't the soviet union too but at least they don't depend on the others.

China on the other way is above everyone. They fielded almost 200 j-20 in few years, they got the amount of ships in service in the french navy every 4 years... they are a monster in terms of industrial capacity. They are the real problem of the west. Russia doesn't need to increase anything since their hands full with chinese problem.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:The advantage in artillery hardly helps Russia then... Russia has not captured even 1% of Ukrainian territory in 2023, all gains made are really tiny.

Without big arrow offensives winning this war is not possible. For them, having numerical advantage is necessary. I wanna see Bagration-like offensives with 3-4x Ru numerical advantage breaking the back of the Ukro army. So far none of this can be seen.

Capturing territory makes you loose more men than just building defences and waiting for ukro human waves that are welcomed with hundreds of artillery pieces.

This the russian strategy for the last year.

Soviets were bullding nuclear sub quickly (could finish one in one year, Typhoon was 4 years). Russia doesn't need one year for one sub, it would quickly have no more order and thousands people would be jobless. They don't need hundreds of subs like the soviets anyway. wrote:

And so Russia is currently building more nuclear and conventional submarines than all of Europe

JohninMK wrote:

mnztr wrote:
Oh come.on. germany and europen make fantastic high tech machines.service industry was created as manufacturing is so freakin efficient and automated. Just compare how long russia takes to build a nuclear aub vs the usa. I am not saying russian subs are not incredible. Look at tesla look at space x. Look at german cars and airbus. Saying the west has no industrial capacity and cannot create more is nonaense

You may not have noticed but Germany's industrial might seems, particularly under the pressure of increased energy costs, to be draining away, as evidenced by the sobering figures for this year. There is a trend to start importing much more processed raw materials rather than try to smelt etc them themselves. The US decision to eliminate Russian energy from Europe (as part of the Ukraine package) is, as intended by them, having serious impacts.

Whether the Greens liked it or not, Europe's prosperity was built firmly on the foundations of Russian energy. That is gone.

None of those things affects the MIC where cost is no object. In the medium to long term capabilities will degrade but for now they are capable. They can buy metals from the USA, Canada, India, China etc etc.

Kiko wrote:Coming high on Western propaganda parroting, are we?

.

The commentators we listen to only look 12-24m ahead. If this goes to a full blown NATO v Russia war, that's different. Putin wishes to avoid this. he is no fool. It will be terrible for everyone even without nukes

mnztr wrote:
None of those things affects the MIC where cost is no object. In the medium to long term capabilities will degrade but for now they are capable. They can buy metals from the USA, Canada, India, China etc etc.

You really don't get that.

Looking how they can't deliver more than 10 items for every weapon they promised to Kiev they production capacity isn't super.

sepheronx wrote:So are you saying Russia is incompetent in the fights and not doing a good enough job that you can do?  I don't have to be a prick to tell you there is a lot more going on than you may not know. Otherwise, if it was that easy, they would be doing just that.  But you know better than a country.

No. Not at all. I am contending that Russia has to be more brazen in the Black sea. And be less polite.

flamming_python wrote:

Backman wrote:I think this is a very debatable point. If Russia got a million men under arms, they could do large encirclements.

We have been watching the defense strategy for a year now. The retards keep coming and coming.

Yes but that strategy is fraught with risk

Risk to the Russian economy by drafting so many.

Ditto for domestic support

Risk of NATO panicking and doing something stupid

Risk of some very costly urban battles

Stuff like that.

Although now that war production has ramped up it could be time. It will necessitate more rounds of mobilizations that Putin might not want to risk before the elections though.

All 3 of those exist now. You are gun shy from the crazy thunder runs at the start of the war. I am not talking about doing that.

Plus drones are hitting Moscow city. And shells are still hitting the Donbas. At minimum, both of those have to end.

The Russian govt is risking domestic support now, with not showing how this can be brought to a conclusion. Russia needs to move the line 300km west at least. And then build the mother of all defenses.

Isos wrote:Looking how they can't deliver more than 10 items for every weapon they promised to Kiev they production capacity isn't super.

They're testing their weapons. They don't want to deliver more. They know that stuff will be deleted.

You have to take into account that everything they're saying could be a lie. About production plans and so on too. In reality they would be fools if they haven't got plans already in motion and at an advanced stage for ramping up production, not only against Russia but moreover against China too.

mnztr wrote:

Kiko wrote:Coming high on Western propaganda parroting, are we?

.

The commentators we listen to only look 12-24m ahead. If this goes to a full blown NATO v Russia war, that's different. Putin wishes to avoid this. he is no fool. It will be terrible for everyone even without nukes

I said it before

If NATO succeeds in starting to move it's economy into a war footing with the rapid foundation of new industrial capacities, maintain political cohesion of their bloc without defections or coups or revolutions, and enact at least a partial mobilization of their populations - then they can win against Russia, in fact probably will win.

But those are 3 very big IF's. And if they fail at one of them then they won't be able to defeat Russia at all. Because Russia itself has already survived doing all 3, and it has China and several other stable states at its back ready to produce for it war equipment and ammo per it's request.

flamming_python wrote:

mnztr wrote:

Kiko wrote:Coming high on Western propaganda parroting, are we?

.

The commentators we listen to only look 12-24m ahead. If this goes to a full blown NATO v Russia war, that's different. Putin wishes to avoid this. he is no fool. It will be terrible for everyone even without nukes

I said it before

If NATO succeeds in starting to move it's economy into a war footing with the rapid foundation of new industrial capacities, maintain political cohesion of their bloc without defections or coups or revolutions, and enact at least a partial mobilization of their populations - then they can win against Russia, in fact probably will win.

But those are 3 very big IF's. And if they fail at one of them then they won't be able to defeat Russia at all. Because Russia itself has already survived doing all 3, and it has China and several other stable states at its back ready to produce for it war equipment and ammo per it's request.

The new regions are Russian territory. As is Crimea. If Nato jumps in, Russia will ready the nukes. Otherwise they will be obsolete

Any ideas what the local population in newly incorporated territories thinks about being a part of Russia?

Backman wrote:
All 3 of those exist now. You are gun shy from the crazy thunder runs at the start of the war. I am not talking about doing that.

Then what are you talking about?

Because the battle for Kharkov, for Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, nevermind the battle for Kiev - will make Mariupol and Bakhmut look like child's play.
At this stage anyway. It will be far more effective to simply march into these cities once the will to fight has broken down and the enemy is not capable of mounting a cohesive defence.

Advancing full bore into the Ukraine is something Russia could have continued to do right at the start, if it wanted to. The Ukraine unlike now, did not even have any serious defensive lines anywhere outside the Donbass. The Russian military could have advanced to Nikolayev, Krivoj Rog, Zaporozhie; they were a stone's throw away from them. They were already on the outskirts of Kiev and Kharkov and stayed there for some time.

The problem is not Ukrainian defensive lines and entechments. It's the cities themselves. The Ukrainians at the start of the war had a defence strategy focussed on the cities and overlapping their defences between them, in a system of concentric circles.
If anyone remembers all those artillery pieces the Ukrianians situated right among residential buildings in Nikolayev. Or launching Grads from under a shopping centre in Kiev.

Attempting to assault these cities would have led to some unbelievably costly urban warfare and the scale of destruction would have left every such place looking like 90s Grozny.

It's simply not what Russia was prepared to deal with. Nor was it prepared to deal with all these infiltration bands of infantry taking out its supply columns and rear eschelon units all the time, as GarryB was saying.

By now, most of the professional Ukrainian soldiers are dead or wounded. Same goes for most of the nationalist fanatics. NATO mercs are less keen to get involved. The Ukrianian air defence network is heavily depleted and compromised. But the will to fight is still there, and it makes more sense to hold position for now and exercise some more patience.

Plus drones are hitting Moscow city. And shells are still hitting the Donbas. At minimum, both of those have to end.

Breaking windows in Moscow city skyscrapers impresses no-one, it's a move towards terrorist tactics and nothing more

The Russian govt is risking domestic support now, with not showing how this can be brought to a conclusion. Russia needs to move the line 300km west at least. And then build the mother of all defenses.

It's not, as everyone outside the 5th and 6th columns understand by now that it's a a long war with NATO and there can be no quick conclusion to it. People are satisfied that Russia tried the diplomatic avenues and offered peace deals too.

There already is the mother of all defences, and it's working well. And it's located in mostly friendly, adjacent to pre-war Russian territories, which lessens the strain on policing and information leaking out.
When the time comes Russia will advance and create new defensive lines, and establish Russian administration, rebuild ruined towns, and integrate into the Russia economy all territories behind those new lines. And so on.
In the manner that what's today south and eastern Ukraine was conquered from the Nogais, Crimean Tatars and other nomadic empires in the first place.

Isos wrote:Looking how they can't deliver more than 10 items for every weapon they promised to Kiev they production capacity isn't super.

Look Russia is trashing Ukrainians conscripts armed with weapons from the NATO recycling bin. Don't assume the same will happen if they take on a bloc of nations with over 700m population that deliver most of the advanced tech on the planet. I am glad Putin would never be so unwise. He is a smart man. Prob the best leader on the planet today. I hope Russia can get this finished. The longer it drags on the risks build for everyone and more young people die. Its a tragedy that has to end ASAP.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Any ideas what the local population in newly incorporated territories thinks about being a part of Russia?

Check the referenda, they're less than a year old...

60k rate of casualties made a whole US society to collapse, and pull out from Vietnam.
It was a 260 mln ppl country back then, and much less sensitive to that.
Russkie today, with <150 mn ppl sustained some 40-50k KIA without even noticing.
Human factor is something we can't even use for the modelling having not enough data.

mnztr wrote:

Isos wrote:Looking how they can't deliver more than 10 items for every weapon they promised to Kiev they production capacity isn't super.

Look Russia is trashing Ukrainians conscripts armed with weapons from the NATO recycling bin. Don't assume the same will happen if they take on a bloc of nations with over 700m population that deliver most of the advanced tech on the planet. I am glad Putin would never be so unwise. He is a smart man. Prob the best leader on the planet today. I hope Russia can get this finished. The longer it drags on the risks build for everyone and more young people die. Its a tragedy that has to end ASAP.

Russia is already taking on this bloc. This was the bloc's opening salvo; turning the Ukraine into a giant forward operating base and militarizing its population driven by a hateful anti-Russian nationalist ideology.
And not all that much depends on Putin's will. If NATO is determined to destroy Russia, and it is, then it will escalate through one means or another; albeit its next options are not that great. Putin's decisions influence how prepared Russia will be when that happens.

Of course if NATO does want to end it - all it has to do is pull out from the Ukraine and declare that it will support any peace settlement between Russia and the Ukraine including ones which entail territorial changes, and that the Ukraine can never be accepted into NATO or have any sort of NATO military presence or ties to the organization.
That's up to NATO, not Putin.

There is no way we can ramp up production, the West is bust and tied up in bureaucracy. Look at this from today, it might be the often sensationalist Bild but they have a point.

What happens when Germany can't fund the EU and all its new debts on Ukraine? Who is actually going to pay the bill for all those refurb Leo 1 etc etc?

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
.
3h
For Germany, a black day has come. The country's economy is on the brink of collapse. The newspaper Bild reports that German companies are forced to reduce production, and the competitiveness of strong sectors has fallen to the lowest level in the last 30 years.

The problem also lies within the German government itself: officials and politicians have introduced so many new rules and restrictions (including those related to anti-Russian sanctions) that they are becoming confused in them. This leads to even more bureaucracy.

Experts surveyed by the publication believe that the situation is so critical that Germany may introduce strict credit and monetary regulation. In particular, they may freeze interest rates on loans.

Nqagu Mabena
@NqaguM
·
2h
Germany is already in a recession. Germany goes down, the EU collapses. They are major contributors to the union, the UK did brexit and left. Germany and the UK were the major contributors. Other nations were always handout receivers.

flamming_python wrote:

mnztr wrote:

Isos wrote:Looking how they can't deliver more than 10 items for every weapon they promised to Kiev they production capacity isn't super.

Look Russia is trashing Ukrainians conscripts armed with weapons from the NATO recycling bin. Don't assume the same will happen if they take on a bloc of nations with over 700m population that deliver most of the advanced tech on the planet. I am glad Putin would never be so unwise. He is a smart man. Prob the best leader on the planet today. I hope Russia can get this finished. The longer it drags on the risks build for everyone and more young people die. Its a tragedy that has to end ASAP.

Russia is already taking on this bloc. This was the bloc's opening salvo; turning the Ukraine into a giant forward operating base and militarizing its population driven by a hateful anti-Russian nationalist ideology.
And not all that much depends on Putin's will. If NATO is determined to destroy Russia, and it is, then it will escalate through one means or another; albeit its next options are not that great. Putin's decisions influence how prepared Russia will be when that happens.

Of course if NATO does want to end it - all it has to do is pull out from the Ukraine and declare that it will support any peace settlement between Russia and the Ukraine including ones which entail territorial changes, and that the Ukraine can never be accepted into NATO or have any sort of NATO military presence or ties to the organization.
That's up to NATO, not Putin.

When the entire Air Force of NATO nations starts attacking Russia, then they are taking on NATO. Until then they are fighting pawns armed with NATOs rubbish.

More on the aircraft accident. I assume the photos are of the right incident. Isn't that a single engine?

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
·
5h
Today’s incident in Ukraine:
In total, 3 pilots died, all from MiGs, the 40th brigade.

@Slavyangrad




EDIT

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
Wreckage has begun to be removed from the Crash Site of 2 L-39 “Albatros” Training and Light-Ground Attack Aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force which Collided yesterday in the Zhytomyr Region resulting the Death of 3 Pilots in the “F-16 Flight Program” including Major Andrii Pilshchykov also know by his Callsign, “Juice.”