Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49

GarryB wrote:
Looks like someone filming video from a large screen TV...

Here is the video The area is rather large Its a barrage.

Back after a lull due to health issues and tiredness, here's an article on the changes that have made possible a Russian offensive and I added my commentary

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2023/10/13/la-ofensiva-rusa-factores-que-la-hacen-posible/

Looks like a whole lot more logistics on foot now. They need pack horses! You can almost feel the heat coming off that Marder.

Yeah, that was the very fist thing I thought about seeing it today.

Ispan wrote:Back after a lull due to health issues and tiredness, here's an article on the changes that have made possible a Russian offensive and I added my commentary

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2023/10/13/la-ofensiva-rusa-factores-que-la-hacen-posible/

Nice article, I might add you bring up a good point

A technical solution must be devised to penetrate those fortresses in Marinka, Avdeyevka, and the rest of Donbass

Some OTRK variant which is smaller and cheaper than Iskander, but which can be used liberally by the army

As you stated, many issues have been resolved including winged bombs, drones of both recon and strike variants, and the organization of manpower into a cohesive pyramidal structure

I would say what is lacking beyond the technical solutions of new ballistic missiles for destruction of enemy fortifications, is also the communication component

While it makes sense that signal emissions are unwanted due to EW detection,

The armored vehicles and tanks participating in SMO need a much better coordination means, beyond just digital radio.

The proliferation of saggitarius, and Andromeda battlefield management systems is highly important

And while EW detection is a disadvantage, in the conditions where NATO is free to use their own satellite and reconnaissance means without interference, Russia must be so coordinated, and use these systems on a massive level

I'm sure this is the next big adaptation of the Russian army being worked on, battlefield management systems, which even mobilized can utilize and see maps with enemy positions marked, and a commander to designate objectives that all battlefield commanders, both junior and senior can see

This should be from army to airforce to navy, and joint system which can prevent friendly fire incidents, and capitalize on the fluid frontline,

As well resources can quickly be directed to areas of the front where the initiative has been taken

Yes the electronic signature of these systems used will light up like a Christmas tree, but then solutions must be devised for that as well

Arrow wrote:

That would burn nicely.

That's a russian msta-S ?

They all burn. Such pieces have enough explosive to destroy 40 big houses easily inside.

Israel is showing the world how to wage war. They will wage total war, no matter the civilian casualties and even nukes are on the table.

Russia keeps insisting on fighting a gentlemans war which is impossible. They should be using chemical weapons enmass, testing nukes, carpet bombing, taking water and power in the whole of Ukraine offline,....

bandit6 wrote:Israel is showing the world how to wage war. They will wage total war, no matter the civilian casualties and even nukes are on the table.

Russia keeps insisting on fighting a gentlemans war which is impossible. They should be using chemical weapons enmass, testing nukes, carpet bombing, taking water and power in the whole of Ukraine offline,....

That makes you indifferent from your enemy.

West and Israel is built upon hate and animosity. It does not necessitate its opponent to become that way.

On the other hand, full blown military action against military and strategic objectives MUST be achieved.

Bombing civilians is "how to wage war". Yeah, if you are a war criminal POS.

Due to its strategic location, with ability to shell Donetsk, this is the most fortified area in the Donbas, probably in Europe. No doubt parts of Gaza are a bit like this.

There are few currently serving soldiers in the World that have this kind of urban warfare experience and most of them are in Russia. No wonder the senior officers of the IAF (the only ones left who have actual experience of 17 tears ago) seem to be reluctant to put it into the Gaza deathtrap.

Arkanghelsk wrote:
I would say what is lacking beyond the technical solutions of new ballistic missiles for destruction of enemy fortifications,  is also the communication component

While it makes sense that signal emissions are unwanted due to EW detection,

The armored vehicles and tanks participating in SMO need a much better coordination means, beyond just digital radio.

The proliferation of saggitarius, and Andromeda battlefield management systems is highly important

And while EW detection is a disadvantage, in the conditions where NATO is free to use their own satellite and reconnaissance means without interference, Russia must be so coordinated, and use these systems on a massive level

I'm sure this is the next big adaptation of the Russian army being worked on, battlefield management systems,  which even mobilized can utilize and see maps with enemy positions marked, and a commander to designate objectives that all battlefield commanders, both junior and senior can see

This should be from army to airforce to navy, and joint system which can prevent friendly fire incidents, and capitalize on the fluid frontline,

As well resources can quickly be directed to areas of the front where the initiative has been taken

Yes the electronic signature of these systems used will light up like a Christmas tree, but then solutions must be devised for that as well

Thanks, very interesting. Can I add your comment to the running commentary for the month of October?

As I couldn't update the blog this month, I opened an entry as a "public soapbox" to update daily with the interesting contributions of readers of my blog. If you are interested check it out

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2023/10/04/tribuna-abierta-octubre-2023/

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation (for the period from October 7 to October 13, 2023)

In the period from October 7 to October 13 this year, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out eight group strikes with Iskander-M operational and tactical missile systems and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Warehouses of rocket and artillery weapons, military equipment, workshops of enterprises producing and storing weapons and military equipment, as well as accommodation facilities for Ukrainian servicemen, nationalists and foreign mercenaries were affected.

As a result of the strikes, the following were destroyed: a storage warehouse for Willard-type boats manufactured by the United States, a field artillery warehouse of the united group of forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "Kherson", a warehouse of military equipment at the Dunaysudoservice shipyard in the city of Ilyichevsk, Odessa region, as well as a fuel and lubricants storage base at the Uman airfield in the Cherkasy region.

In the Kupyansk direction, during the week, units of the "Western" grouping of troops, in the course of active operations, with the support of aviation and artillery fire, occupied more advantageous lines and positions.

46 enemy attacks were repelled in the areas of the settlements of Ivanovka, Sinkovka of the Kharkiv region and Makeyevka of the Luhansk People's Republic.

In addition, in the areas of the settlements of Sinkovka, Timakovka of the Kharkiv region and Novoselovskoye of the Luhansk People's Republic, the manpower and equipment of the 25th airborne, 14th and 92nd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated.

The enemy's losses amounted to over 830 Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded, three tanks, four armored fighting vehicles, 19 vehicles and 17 field artillery guns.

In the area of the city of Volchansk and the settlement of Ogurtsovo, Kharkiv region, two warehouses of rocket and artillery weapons of foreign mercenaries and the 1st special purpose brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed.

In the Krasnolimansk direction, the enemy, by the forces of the 5th Brigade of the National Guard, the 63rd and 67th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, made unsuccessful attempts to restore lost positions in the areas of the settlements of Chervonaya Dibrova of the Luhansk People's Republic and Yampolovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

As a result of the competent actions of the units of the Center group of forces, air strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems, 22 attacks of the assault units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were repelled during the week.

The total losses of the enemy amounted to more than 895 soldiers, four tanks, 11 armored combat vehicles, 11 cars, 19 guns, as well as the Vampire multiple rocket launcher system of Czech production.

In the Donetsk direction, units of the "Southern" grouping of troops, in cooperation with aviation and artillery, repelled 17 attacks by Ukrainian units in the areas of the settlements of Orekhovo-Vasilyevka and Vodiane of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Over the past week, the enemy has lost more than 1,580 servicemen killed and wounded in this direction, four tanks, 30 armored combat vehicles, 22 vehicles, 14 field artillery guns, as well as a Grad MLRS combat vehicle.

In addition, two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups and five field ammunition depots of the AFU units were destroyed.

In the South Donetsk direction, Russian units, by coordinated actions, improved the situation along the front edge during the week and repelled eight enemy attacks. The activities of three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were also suppressed.

Over the past period, the enemy's losses amounted to over 1,285 Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded, ten armored combat vehicles, 22 vehicles, 14 field artillery guns, as well as a Grad MLRS combat vehicle.

In the Zaporozhye direction, as a result of the active actions of the units of the Russian troops with the support of aviation and artillery, four attacks of the assault groups of the 65th mechanized and 71st Jaeger brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Varbove and Workino of the Zaporozhye region were repelled.

The enemy's losses in this direction amounted to more than 385 servicemen, three tanks, nine armored combat vehicles, 14 cars and 14 field artillery guns.

In the Kherson direction, the enemy continued to make unsuccessful attempts to seize bridgeheads on the islands and the left bank of the Dnieper.

As a result of the fire damage, up to 325 Ukrainian servicemen, nine field artillery guns, a Grad MLRS combat vehicle and 53 vehicles were destroyed during the week.

In addition, three ammunition depots were destroyed, as well as two sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the islands of Alyoshkinsky and Pereyaslavsky.

Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the area of the village of Preobrazhenka, Zaporozhye region, shot down a Su-25 attack aircraft of the Air Forces of Ukraine.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation for the past period hit: Su-25 attack aircraft at the airfield Dolgintsevo Dnipropetrovsk region, the launcher of the missile complex "Dot-U" in the area of the settlement of the Intersection of the Kharkiv region, anti-aircraft missile system S-300 near the city of Nikolaev, as well as two radar stations for detecting and tracking ST-68U air targets in the area of the settlement of Malovarvarovka, Mykolaiv region.

In addition, the following were destroyed: warehouses of aviation weapons in the locality of Dubiyivka, Cherkasy region and Priluki, Chernihiv region, as well as aviation fuel storage facilities at the airfields: "Ozernoye" near the city of Zhytomyr and "Mirgorod" in the Poltava region.

Naval aviation of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed an unmanned boat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Black Sea.

During the week, air defense intercepted 19 rockets of the HIMARS, Alder and Hurricane multiple launch rocket systems, seven JDAM guided aerial bombs, 12 HARM anti-radar missiles and two Neptune anti-ship missiles.

In addition, 218 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 488 aircraft, 250 helicopters, 7790 unmanned aerial vehicles, 441 anti-aircraft missile systems, 12546 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1163 multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles, 6753 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 14143 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12481952@egNews

Hole wrote:

Reinforced concrete fortresses Avdeevka.

That´s what the modified FAB-1500s are made for.

And Shmel

The guy who comments on this film cites that he has size 47 shoe, which is more than 30 cm. The wall is almost double that, so we are talking a 50 cm thick reinforced concrete walls and prefabricated armored steel doors.

FAB9000 would do a job even better

Crimean bridge fully restored (again), after the latest attacks, three weeks ahead of schedule.
https://m.c-inform.info/news/id/108032

Russians joking about how Ukrainians are contributing to resurfacing, so it's fresher than ever.

I think they can make a hybrid of Iskander and Tsirkon now. In the first phase, an aeroballistic flight and then a maneuvering Tirkon. There are many options. This will give a range of easily over 2000 km.

Iskander is almost 4 tons of missile because from launch to impact the rocket motor needs to be burning for it to manouver because it uses thrust vector controls to steer.

Just making it a scramjet would mean that it would need probably 800kg of fuel instead of 3.2 tons of fuel, where 800kg was fuel and 2.4 tons or 2,400kg was oxidiser for that fuel to burn. Essentially you could halve the weight of the weapon by using a scramjet motor and ironically the top speed could be significantly higher as shown by the top speed of Iskander of mach 6 to mach 7, compared with the top speed of Zircon at about mach 9 or so.

This means the missiles will be rather lighter, but they will be more compact too so you could probably get four Iskanders per launcher easily enough.

Contratry to their claim the real pros (Ritter, Martyanov, to name just a few) are thinking that Russia will keep the lid open for new "reinforcements"
from the Ukro side to come in. The aim is still to kill and disable as much enemy fighters as possible.

The goal is to kill Ukrainian soldiers until their army collapses... there is no reason to suddenly change to... we must take this and we must take that...

Back after a lull due to health issues and tiredness,

Sorry to hear you were not well... certainly glad you are better.

Looks like a whole lot more logistics on foot now. They need pack horses! You can almost feel the heat coming off that Marder.

Pack horses are useful and supplement your rations if they get killed or it gets really cold and your supply line on the eastern front in winter is not so robust...

Some OTRK variant which is smaller and cheaper than Iskander, but which can be used liberally by the army

1,500kg bombs with glide kits as well as some of their heavier anti ship missiles could be easily used... the Granit anti ship missile is a significantly sized missile and its cousin the Vulcan is being replaced in their ships with UKSK launchers for Onyx and Zircon so they might as well expend their stocks of the older anti ship missiles.

I would say a rail based launcher would be ideal and cost effective... these missiles can cover over 300km easily and carry 900kg plus conventional warheads with pretty good accuracy and plenty of kinetic energy being supersonic missiles.

I would say with the current level of Ukrainian air defences a high altitude cruise and a steep near vertical dive on the targets would offer the best performance and limit the sort of weapons that could deal with them to perhaps BUK and S-300... and getting them to waste such missiles on such weapons would be a good trade as far as Russian air power is concerned... perhaps a few high altitude drones operating in the area looking for any air defence systems trying to stop these missiles would be valuable in directing follow up shots to hit those SAM launchers too.

The anti ship missiles included versions with anti radar capacity to destroy AEGIS ships defending the carriers.

That would burn nicely.

The wood might make western radar and IR gear think it is a decoy and hide its radar and IR signature that identifies it as a metal armoured vehicle.

Israel is showing the world how to wage war. They will wage total war, no matter the civilian casualties and even nukes are on the table.

Russia keeps insisting on fighting a gentlemans war which is impossible. They should be using chemical weapons enmass, testing nukes, carpet bombing, taking water and power in the whole of Ukraine offline,....

The israelis are nazis fighting a war of genocide, they want to eliminate the people who had the temerity to be living on their land... they want more living space but they don't want the people that come with it... much like the Germans during WWII regarding Soviet territory... The Russians are fighting to liberate a neighbours territory of their nazi overlords to free the people of that country.

Different problems demand different solutions... and show the hypocrisy of the west... cheering genocide on one hand when it is clearly happening, and crying genocide when it isn't happening on the other.

That´s what the modified FAB-1500s are made for.

The Granit and Vulcan anti ship missiles have 900kg plus sized shaped charge warheads designed to punch through armoured objects to destroy what is inside... I would think they have quite a few of them sitting somewhere and with their older ships and subs being upgraded to carry UKSK launchers instead that some sort of ground or rail launcher might be useful.

High altitude flight profiles will maximise flight range and also increase kinetic energy on impact as well as limit the type of systems the Orcs could use to intercept them before impact.

Even any ancient anti ship missiles of the SS-N-2 Styx type would be useful way of delivering heavy HE payloads to the target area in volume, and a good way of using up old stock that would not be ideal for sinking modern ships, though they might be keeping that for sinking enemy shipping... the problem will be they wont have anything that can carry and launch them soon so land based or rail based launchers would be a useful way of delivering attack to neighbouring country regions...

GarryB wrote:Even any ancient anti ship missiles of the SS-N-2 Styx type would be useful way of delivering heavy HE payloads to the target area in volume, and a good way of using up old stock that would not be ideal for sinking modern ships, though they might be keeping that for sinking enemy shipping... the problem will be they wont have anything that can carry and launch them soon so land based or rail based launchers would be a useful way of delivering attack to neighbouring country regions...

There is no old stock of such missiles. They were either used as target drones or destroy to make room for new stuff in storage.

Few years ago some Lybian tried to launch an old styx or another soviet missile that was sitting there for years and it failed. Best case it just crash, worst case it crash in friendly area and kill your own people.