Arkanghelsk Fri Feb 09, 2024 7:12 pm
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/zaluzhny-zelensky-ukraine/
Interesting recognition by western think tank, it seems realism is setting in
Summary of points
1. Russia invaded in 2022, with few troops, this is the real reason for Kharkov and Kiev withdrawals - they leave out the Istanbul negotiations but it is fair that they admit it
2. US arguments that if Ukraine had attacked along narrow fronts are flawed and wrong, Satellite intelligence is what hampered any concentration of forces on the front line, he admits that
3. Ukro failure at the counter, was not due to US arguments that Ukraine failed to attack where they told them - Ukraine just didn't have enough manpower or weapons to break Russias defenses
4. He admits Ukraine is out of manpower, and the struggle between Zaluzhny and Zelensky are really a microcosm of the bigger problem
Ukrainian civil society is blaming the military for the failure, when the military told civil servants to expand mobilization, civil society did not want to, as their own sons would have been drafted and sent to grinders
Thats why the mobilization bill is watered down and will not tap into the youngest part of Ukro society
5. Appointing Syrsky will change nothing, Kharkov success was due to few amounts of Russian troops,
However today the situation is reversed, Russia outnumbers Ukraine is every category there is
There will be no successful offensives
6. The average age of Ukro troops are 43 years old, you can't fight a war with that
7. US congress won't agree to more funding/weapons, they are too divided and the political survival of one side depends on denying this aid
8. Euro aid will only keep the economy floating, it is not enough without American support
9. There is Ukrainian sentiment that a negotiation should be made, and more Ukrainians are willing to make peace
10. Due to US insistence that Ukraine would win, Ukro politicians are nailed to the idea that the only possibility for negotiations is that Russia leave its territories, with so many dead, it is impossible to climb down that tree, anything less will be seen as defeat so Ukros are blaming each other now trying to blame it all on something or someone
11. If political unity collapses, Ukrainian statehood will disappear forever, as no negotiations will be possible as there will be no bargaining chip , Russia has no incentive to negotiate anything except for the total exsanguination of Ukraine and the takeover of its military-political structures by the Kremlin
Overall, it seems that more decision makers are arriving at the idea, that it was they who were defeated on the battlefield