GAYTO creeps are far too smug with the "wasn't me it was them". Time the smug smiles were wiped off the Nazi collaborator faces. If Russia keeps shuffling backwards in red lines, it will be trying to shoot down missiles in Vladivostok. Not acceptable.
GarryB, Big_Gazza, kvs, Odin of Ossetia, The-thing-next-door and Broski like this post
There will not be nuclear escalation, that I know for a fact - as I know that Iran will launch true promise 3 any day now. The template of this "strike escalation ladder" is already written and has certain rules, noone will violate. The rules are you can hit anything as long as you give some warning, or stick to non important infrastructure.
Because strike escalation has nothing to do with effecting the situation on the ground, it just cannot. The strikes are political messaging to other actors in the region, as well as to the major players. The fighting on the ground is what will establish the de facto situation on the ground.
The only thing that matters in Israel vs Resistance, is if Hamas can remain in the fight in any capacity, and Hezbollah attriting Israel in places like Khiam and attriting Israel Defense Forces with huge losses.
In Ukraine, the only thing that matters is the frontline, and Russia is revoking the south and east with sustained pressure, in a domino brusilovs offensive that threatens to cascade into collapse of the VSU. The VSU works in Kursk in the hope for a deal that will give them back some land, justifying their big losses.
The only thing that will matter is the ground wars, the strike escalation is just to lend legitimacy to the political players involved. The Iranians strike Israel to maintain the victories that Soleimani and the IRGC achieved in the region, the israelis strike back to maintain their image that there will always be a response.
NATO strikes Russia to show there are no limits to article V and NATO expansion, while Russia must strike back to show NATO that they will not just use Ukraine as a battering ram without consequences.
In summary, the strikes must happen, but they will not damage either side existentially, they simply convey a message that each side is committed to victory, and that victory will only be achieved on the ground
GarryB, Eugenio Argentina, Hole and Mir like this post
In summary, the strikes must happen, but they will not damage either side existentially,
After the next attack by the west via Banderaland Russia will propably hit Kiev with an Oreshnik or some other surprise. Then it could be a strike against the illegal american bases in Syria. Which would sort of hit the country responsible for the escalation but would give room for some de-escalation.
Keep in mind that an American base in the Persian Gulf was hit after the killing of Soleimani. The Americans accepted it (under Trump!) and walked away. Against Iran, which is much weaker than Russia. I guess the Generals in the US would accept such a strike against some small lonely base outside of NATO territory and calm down the stupid politicians.
GarryB, kvs, GunshipDemocracy, Eugenio Argentina, lancelot and Mir like this post
Dude....I have said multiple times it will start with convential weapons but over time, tension will build, we will keep bombing eachother until it hits that snapping point.
You are ignoring what i have said, i never said the first attack would lead to nukes
I said EVENTUALLY.
As for what Putin says, and? the guy has said red line this, red line that, blahblahblah.
He has said this kind of stuff multiple times and he has done nothing, Idk why you are acting like this isn't the same song and dance as before.
Believe you me, I do not like agreeing with you. However, yeah you have pretty much summed up how escalation will work if Russia and NATO start striking each other. My take is that if Trump can't get his settled peace that ends in a favorable to NATO and Nazi situation where the conflict freezes along the current contact lines and Ukraine gets more and more NATO troops and weaponry, especially the sort that can strike Moscow, Petersburg, Kazan, or Volgograd in 5 minutes (and why the hell would Putin agree to such a deal), he will introduce uniformed US and NATO troops into the combat zone. Sure, sure, they show up and they become legitimate targets. Therein lies the huge problem, most Europeans and a lot of American citizens would strongly protest against this deployment especially when whole divisions start coming home in body bags and their families get KIA or MIA notices because so little of their relative remains that they can't find them, the hawks in the Reichstag (bundesreichstag?), EU parliament, Parliament, and CONgress will demand strikes on Russia. Putin will be unable to accept these strikes on Russian cities and so conventional ordinance will be delivered on EU and US cities. This of course will be unacceptable to the west and so nukes will be deployed.
SO yeah, while you are wrong that Putin isn't serious about red lines (the whole damn reason we are having this war is because NATO crossed his red lines), you are unfortunately damn right that escalation will EVENTUALLY go nuclear. The longer this shit show lasts and the more homicidally psychotic and desperate NATO gets the more likely it goes nuclear.
US military base in Poland is ‘priority’ target, Russia warns
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said a United States anti-missile base in Redzikowo, Poland, "is a priority target for potential neutralization." The warning comes days after U.S. President Joe Biden authorized the use of long-range American missiles against Russian targets by Ukraine, the reported deployment of British Storm Shadow missiles by Kyiv against Russia, and the Kremlin's own expansion of the conditions under which Moscow may use its nuclear weapons.
"Given the level of threats posed by such Western military facilities, the missile defense base in Poland has long been included among the priority targets for potential neutralization. If necessary, this can be achieved using a wide range of advanced weaponry," Zakharova claimed, according to an article by Russian state-owned news agency TASS.
Lmao idk why you guys keep burying your heads in the sand, btw ATACMS just hit Kursk
So we will find out soon enough
And no it won’t go nuclear , again study Iranian - Israeli strikes , Israel has a way more lunatic leadership which believes its under threat of extinction and did not go nuclear
No one is going to risk themselves for ego hit
GarryB, Eugenio Argentina, Mir and Broski like this post
Arkanghelsk wrote:US military base in Poland is ‘priority’ target, Russia warns
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said a United States anti-missile base in Redzikowo, Poland, "is a priority target for potential neutralization." The warning comes days after U.S. President Joe Biden authorized the use of long-range American missiles against Russian targets by Ukraine, the reported deployment of British Storm Shadow missiles by Kyiv against Russia, and the Kremlin's own expansion of the conditions under which Moscow may use its nuclear weapons.
"Given the level of threats posed by such Western military facilities, the missile defense base in Poland has long been included among the priority targets for potential neutralization. If necessary, this can be achieved using a wide range of advanced weaponry," Zakharova claimed, according to an article by Russian state-owned news agency TASS.
Lmao idk why you guys keep burying your heads in the sand, btw ATACMS just hit Kursk
So we will find out soon enough
And no it won’t go nuclear , again study Iranian - Israeli strikes , Israel has a way more lunatic leadership which believes its under threat of extinction and did not go nuclear
No one is going to risk themselves for ego hit
I hope you are right, but you are dealing with the Americans and Eurotrash you are dealing with unhinged pyschopaths who have literally said nuclear fueled extinction is worth it if it means no more Putin. So yeah, I hope you are really right, but I fear you are wrong.
flamming_python, GunshipDemocracy, The-thing-next-door, lancelot and Mir like this post
Hole wrote:After the next attack by the west via Banderaland Russia will propably hit Kiev with an Oreshnik or some other surprise. Then it could be a strike against the illegal american bases in Syria. Which would sort of hit the country responsible for the escalation but would give room for some de-escalation.
Keep in mind that an American base in the Persian Gulf was hit after the killing of Soleimani. The Americans accepted it (under Trump!) and walked away. Against Iran, which is much weaker than Russia. I guess the Generals in the US would accept such a strike against some small lonely base outside of NATO territory and calm down the stupid politicians.
The Americans have accepted nothing from Iran.
They just don't want to wage a war against them at the same time that they're committed to subjugating Russia. Seig Solovyev is right about two things. Number one that this can well escalate to nuclear war if it goes on. That may be so but NATO is the one escalating, and Russia is merely responding. And I think that in any case, the objective of the neo-cons at the moment is trying to get Russia to 'blink' and freeze the conflict, maybe via third parties such as India and China. They may accept a climb-down eventually, even after a conventional exchange, if that proves impossible.
Number two is that in the Middle East neither side wanted conflict. For the West, they just didn't want conflict at this time. Whereas for Iran they are a much weaker party, but are able to maintain their position on the sidelines of the global conflict while the chief target of Washington remains Russia. But the same does not hold true in the European theater.
Last edited by flamming_python on Sat Nov 23, 2024 9:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
Arkanghelsk wrote:You guys hype the nuclear threat too much and play into the same mistake Gorbachev and the Soviets did
Making the west into a “crazy lunatic madman” will only lead to capitulation out of delusion of a peaceful solution with amicable compromise
Doing this only increases the chances of a USSR style capitulation
Learn to stop worrying and love the bomb, that’s how Yankees won round 1
Luckily Russians aren’t worried and saying any of this stuff, it’s mostly westerns so that’s good
I agree that the only course of action that doesn't end in self-defeat is to defend yourself and respond to each escalation. And that Putin was not bluffing and will have to strike NATO if they don't get the message, or at least the countries directly attacking Russia - that being the US, UK and France; demonstratively at first, but then expand targets to military-industrial facilities, ammo depots, power stations, etc..
But you should not dismiss the very real threat of nuclear war. There are many variables. Russia with the demonstration of the Oreshnik gained an advantage as it now has scope to escalate any conflict without resorting to nuclear means. NATO has nothing comparable or any way to defend against it. But you can't exclude that the Americans will start to take the nuclear warheads off of some of their ICBMs and SLBMs now too to gain an equivalent conventional 'superweapon' that can't be intercepted. And the process of further escalation can acquire its own momentum outside of attempts to keep control of it.
I agree that the only course of action that doesn't end in self-defeat is to defend yourself and respond to each escalation. And that Putin was not bluffing and will have to strike NATO if they don't get the message, or at least the countries directly attacking Russia - that being the US, UK and France; demonstratively at first, but then expand targets to military-industrial facilities, ammo depots, power stations, etc..
But you should not dismiss the very real threat of nuclear war. There are many variables. Russia with the demonstration of the Oreshnik gained an advantage as it now has scope to escalate any conflict without resorting to nuclear means. NATO has nothing comparable or any way to defend against it. But you can't exclude that the Americans will start to take the nuclear warheads off of some of their ICBMs and SLBMs now too to gain an equivalent conventional 'superweapon' that can't be intercepted. And the process of further escalation can acquire its own momentum outside of attempts to keep control of it.
Let the west own the worry for escalation , Russia doesn’t need to worry about it
Just keep calm and respond accordingly and faithfully and let Gods will be done
That’s how you become a madman that people fear -
Notice only the west has “crazy elites” who “do not care about anything”
This rhetoric is defeatist and should not be tolerated , anyone saying this should be ousted from the security council and from Putins circle
All in is the name of the game , I’ll raise you one strike
GarryB, PapaDragon, littlerabbit, The-thing-next-door, Eugenio Argentina and Broski like this post
Watching Brian Berletic's latest video and important fact relevant for this discussion needs to be pointed out. The US wants to "grind" down Russia with its Ukr proxies. So what would be the point of escalating into a nuclear war? Such an escalation would be accidental and not planned. Everyone with a clue knows that the boutique amounts of under 300 mile range ATACMS and Storm Shadows being lobbed at Russia are irrelevant. This includes their supposed propaganda value at making Russians want to overthrow Putin.
The question is why Putin is drawing such a hard line over these attacks. I think it is because NATzO stellar intellects are planning a dirty surprise as part of these attacks. NATzO may be wanting to supply nuclear or biowarfare warheads for these missiles. It will then claim that it was Ukria that designed them and used them. The Oreshnik demonstration is out of scale for the 300 mile range missile "threat". The target of Yuzmash is very interesting as well since cold war era underground facilities were targeted. What was the activity in these industrial bunkers? It could not have been missile design and production since Ukria has lost the ability.
GarryB, Big_Gazza, The-thing-next-door, Eugenio Argentina, Hole, Mir, Broski and ucmvulcan like this post
kvs wrote:Watching Brian Berletic's latest video and important fact relevant for this discussion needs to be pointed out. The US wants to "grind" down Russia with its Ukr proxies. So what would be the point of escalating into a nuclear war? Such an escalation would be accidental and not planned. Everyone with a clue knows that the boutique amounts of under 300 mile range ATACMS and Storm Shadows being lobbed at Russia are irrelevant. This includes their supposed propaganda value at making Russians want to overthrow Putin.
The question is why Putin is drawing such a hard line over these attacks. I think it is because NATzO stellar intellects are planning a dirty surprise as part of these attacks. NATzO may be wanting to supply nuclear or biowarfare warheads for these missiles. It will then claim that it was Ukria that designed them and used them. The Oreshnik demonstration is out of scale for the 300 mile range missile "threat". The target of Yuzmash is very interesting as well since cold war era underground facilities were targeted. What was the activity in these industrial bunkers? It could not have been missile design and production since Ukria has lost the ability.
He's drawing a hard-line because the line has to be drawn somewhere and a direct attack against Russia by NATO from Ukrainian territory is as good a place as any
Drawing the line earlier, at mere weapons deliveries to the Ukraine or to NATO specialists and equipment fighting Russia inside de-jure Ukraine would have been a hard sell both internationally and for the Russian elites.
Whereas drawing the line later invites more problems. Because if nothing is done the next step will be Tomahawk missiles with 3000km ranges, a land and sea blockade of Kaliningrad, Patriot batteries in Poland and Romania shooting down Russian missiles over the Ukraine and then providing cover for NATO airforces to establish no-fly zones over increasing sections of Ukrainian territory, NATO ground forces in Odessa, Zelensky 'developing' some crude nuclear devices, and so on. All of those threats have previously been made public.
And so what advantage would there be in Russia waiting for the aforementioned escalations to take place?
Putin chose the exact right time and place to let NATO know of the consequences to further escalation. Now they're even exposed as the villians, because of how publicly they boasted about breaching "Putin's red lines"
GunshipDemocracy, Mir and Arkanghelsk like this post
kvs wrote:The target of Yuzmash is very interesting as well since cold war era underground facilities were targeted. What was the activity in these industrial bunkers? It could not have been missile design and production since Ukria has lost the ability.
You should not underestimate the capabilities of Yuzmash. They were manufacturing the Antares rocket for the US until recently. They also made the upper stage of the Vega rocket for the EU.
GarryB, flamming_python, GunshipDemocracy, Mir, Broski and ucmvulcan like this post
Eyewitnesses: "Yuzhmash is no more, only dust remains"
In Ukraine, the SBU has completely classified the consequences of the Oreshnik hypersonic system strike on the Yuzhmash defense plant in Dnepropetrovsk. Despite the blockade in the Kiev media, city residents have begun to report for the first time that "only dust" remains of the military enterprise.
" Yuzhmash is gone. It hit so hard that everyone just threw up their hands. It was like God sent us his arrows. People went to the plant to find out what happened - but it was simply gone. There are no workshops, only dust remains," eyewitnesses say.
According to a classmate of a local woman, at the moment of impact, no one understood what had happened. The Yuzhmash workshops had been hit before; usually, this was accompanied by local fires. After the Oreshnik's arrival, there were no usual lights, and many even thought it was an earthquake.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/113751
Preliminary results of the "Oreshnik" strike
Information about the results of the "Oreshnik" strike on the Yuzhmash plant in Dnepropetrovsk is starting to arrive. The territory of the plant is closed and cordoned off to this day, but eyewitnesses claim that the workshops that were hit by kinetic plasma strikes were turned into complete ruins, and not only their above-ground parts, but also the underground structures.
The strikes were so high-energy that the concrete and brick used in their construction were simply crushed into small fractions. The depth of the damage was tens of meters.
A source close to Klitschko (the mayor of Kyiv) reported that this strike caused shock in Bankovaya (the government district of Kyiv). They quickly realized that the use of such weapons against underground shelters, which had seemed to them reliable shelters all this time, would turn them into collective graves.
GarryB, Big_Gazza, PapaDragon, littlerabbit, Eugenio Argentina, Hole, lancelot and like this post
Yuzhmash. All the puzzles about secondary explosions and their purpose..
Heh guys, take a look in the archives, what is the Yuzhmash plant..what does it stand for, what do we know...
Yuzhmash is roughly comparable to the Azov plant, just not as big in terms of area. But at least 8 floors underground. Long-range and ballistic missiles were built in Yuzhmash during Soviet times..uranium warheads were also stored far underground.
The plant belongs to the restricted area of the military district, to put it simply, over 50% of the houses around it were used as housing for employees...the city itself could only be visited with special permission, the restricted area was about 50 km from the city.
Why Putin didn't use 5 or 7 Kinzal for this purpose, or even more, because he wanted to destroy very deep areas and why he wanted to destroy them, is up to your imagination. But anyone who believes that the Ukro Nazis only talk about nuclear protection by accident and then apologize "No, no, we could do it, BUT we won't" should keep dreaming. It may be that the destruction was planned for a long time, but has now become possible with the new system? But one thing is certain: in the factory itself, other things were prepared apart from possibly drones, as all the machinery for production was still 100% available.
Which also explains why no explosives were used, but probably tungsten rods (or similar), as these penetrate up to 100 meters deep and destroy everything with their kinetic energy, penetrating every obstacle without a visible explosion.
GarryB, Big_Gazza, kvs, PapaDragon, GunshipDemocracy, littlerabbit, Eugenio Argentina and like this post
JohninMK wrote: Which also explains why no explosives were used, but probably tungsten rods (or similar), as these penetrate up to 100 meters deep and destroy everything with their kinetic energy, penetrating every obstacle without a visible explosion.
They're using heavy metal penetrator cores with embedded sub-kiloton nukes for effect. A purely KE penetrator would just punch a neat hole in the ground.
These strikes register on seismic scales btw.
By punching deep into the ground all radiation traces gets buried deep - sort of like an impromptu underground nuclear test. NATO can deny it.
ALAMO wrote:And one more thing. There is some discussion up there about 150kg TNT load being "small". [] Iranian ballistic missiles used against Israel carried a sub200kg warheads, with some 50-70 kg explosives load.
There is some discussion that the payload weight was more like 350-500kg and the speed at impact was more like 3500 m/s
Which basically means the equivalent of well over a ton of TNT, maybe two. Dunno how much exactly.
1kg with speed of 3500 m/s has ~1,46 kg TNT mass equivalent just in case
Home
Latest images
Register
Log in
kvs
