Chinese Chipmaking: China Achieves New Semiconductor Breakthrough, by Dmitry Migunov for IZVESTIA. 10.06.2024.
Apparently, Chinese companies will be able to produce modern photolithography machines.
The war of chip makers is just beginning. Last week, China announced the creation of photolithographic machines capable of producing chips using a very high technological process — above 8 nm. This is a leap over a decade and a half of progress in these technologies. Izvestia investigated why this is important and how it will change the global semiconductor market.
Main branch of industry
It is not so easy to find technology in the 21st century that does not use microchips. In fact, chips are a related field for almost all other industries. At the same time, it is a technically complex industry that requires unique competencies and equipment.
The number of countries that can do this in principle can be counted on the fingers of one hand: Taiwan, mainland China, South Korea, Japan, the USA , and that's about it (several other countries have local production facilities that are not the most significant on a global scale). Moreover, there is a large gap within this group: for example, the most advanced microchips at the moment are produced only by Taiwan, represented by the TSMC corporation.
But if the production of semiconductors as such is concentrated in a narrow circle of countries and companies, then the production of means of production for them is almost completely monopolized on a global scale. We are talking about photolithographic machines, which are necessary for applying a pattern to a board, a kind of "machines" for chips.
Formally, such machines are produced by several companies, but truly modern chips can only be made on equipment from the Dutch company ASML.
Once a small division of Philips, the company “came to success” by betting relentlessly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photolithography, which it had been developing for decades. There were years of losses along the way, but in the 2010s the technology finally took off. From 7 nm onwards, manufacturers use EUV equipment almost exclusively (with the exception of China, which we will discuss later). By the end of the last decade, ASML had gained a dominant position in the global market.
Machine for the price of an airplane
The cost of photolithographic equipment and its maintenance accounts for about 40% of the cost of chip production. The cost of one ASML machine is close to the cost of an Airbus airliner, and in terms of its physical volume, one such “machine” exceeds a regular bus (and an order of magnitude in weight). In fact, it is a mini-factory. The monopoly position in the market allows ASML to set prices at its own discretion. It cannot be said that the Dutch company often uses this position, but the lack of competition in any case makes manufacturers nervous. Moreover, there are delays in deliveries, and most importantly, in recent years the issue of semiconductor production has become extremely politicized.
First of all, problems arose with China, which increased its share of this market year after year. If in the early 2010s, China's share in global production was slightly more than zero, now it has exceeded 20% . All this coincided with the aggravation of US-Chinese relations and the AI race, for success in which a lot of semiconductors are needed.
The US administration imposed restrictions on the supply of chips to China, which affected not only US companies, but also market participants from other countries. However, Chinese companies continued to produce their own chips, and quite modern ones. For example, the Chinese company Yangtze Memory Technologies (YTMC) expanded the production of 3D NAND memory chips in 2023 (used, for example, in the production of SSDs - solid-state drives). Huawei, which was supposed to suffer first from the sanctions, sharply increased its own production last year. China managed to smoothly establish mass production of semiconductors using the 7 nm process technology (not the most modern, but sufficient for the vast majority of tasks) in sufficient quantities, which provided a respite for local electronics manufacturers.
The only way to somehow influence China's position in the industry was to restrict the supply of photolithographic equipment. In fact, ASML refused to supply EUV to China quite a long time ago. It was believed that without these machines it would be impossible to produce 7-nanometer chips. However, the Chinese have proven that previous-generation equipment is sufficient for this process technology - machines operating using deep ultraviolet (DUV) technology. This is somewhat less efficient than using EUV, but, given the enormous demand in the market and generous subsidies for manufacturers, it is more than profitable. Theoretically, these machines can also be used for higher process technologies (5 nm).
Two years for 15
Already this summer, the US once again put pressure on China's counterparties in Asia and Europe. The Dutch government announced that it was considering restricting DUV machine servicing in China. It should be noted that even before the sanctions were imposed, the Chinese were buying up this equipment in reserve, so technically there is more than enough of it. However, without servicing, serious problems may arise. For ASML, this is quite a headache: the company accounts for more than half of its sales in China. In addition, the Chinese have quite serious levers for applying retaliatory sanctions. As a result, a decision has not yet been made.
Be that as it may, China's dependence on foreign equipment made its position vulnerable. In China itself, only one company produces such machines - Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE). Until recently, however, its capacity was limited to producing primitive machines using the 90 nm process technology, which was considered modern in 2003. Such equipment is quite sufficient for producing chips used in military equipment. Accordingly, the US argument that measures are being taken to limit the capabilities of the Chinese army and navy looked completely unconvincing.
The restrictions have spurred the Chinese to import substitution and the creation of national alternatives, and ideally, a full cycle of chip production, starting with equipment. Photolithographic machines are incredibly complex to build, they require exceptionally high competencies, and it is impossible to work here on the principle of “this was needed yesterday” for any amount of money. Nevertheless, in mid-September it became known that an unspecified company (presumably SMEE) was able to produce two machines that can service 28 and 8 nm processes, respectively.
This is still worse than ASML, but for the Chinese, the progress is huge. It can be said that they have overcome about 15 years of development of the semiconductor industry in the shortest possible time. For the first time in the world, chips on 7 nm process technologies began to be produced no later than 2017.
This is already more than enough to produce microcircuits not only for the military, but also for most civilian industries. In fact, the only thing beyond China's capabilities is the production of some of the most advanced computer equipment, in particular, modern processors.
The reverse effect of sanctions
To be fair, it is not known exactly what state the production of these machines is in, whether we are talking about serial production or only about prototypes. In any case, if the equipment is working, then introducing it into production will not be so difficult, given that Beijing will take any steps to ensure the most complete independence from foreign suppliers in the current conditions. The fact that before reaching the required speed, when the economy of scale kicks in, it will be necessary to work at a loss for some time, is unlikely to bother anyone in China.
A year ago, it was reported that SMEE had also registered patents for EUV technology equipment. The situation is not yet completely clear: are we talking about machines that will soon be built and put into production or are we talking about theoretical research. In the first case, it will be possible to state that China has finally caught up with ASML, and its needs for foreign contractors will be much lower (but will not fall to zero: to produce chips, any player needs many parts from different countries. At the moment, this is a truly global industry).
If China can ensure the production of new equipment, then it will be possible to state that the American sanctions not only failed, but had the opposite effect. Now the PRC, fearing new and new restrictions, is trying to localize semiconductor production as much as possible, which was not observed a few years ago.
China's expected successes clearly demonstrate that, although the production of photolithographic machines is extremely complex, the task of raising the relevant industry is quite realistic under certain conditions. This could radically change the balance of power in the industry worldwide and virtually nullify any effect of sanctions. For third-party consumers, it is important that competition will arise in this industry, which can significantly refresh the sector and even lead to a decrease in prices, which are currently growing by leaps and bounds. For Russia, this should also simplify the purchase of chips for military, but primarily civilian needs.
https://iz.ru/1764390/dmitrii-migunov/kitaiskoe-cipirovanie-knr-dobilas-novogo-proryva-v-poluprovodnikah[/b]
Apparently, Chinese companies will be able to produce modern photolithography machines.
The war of chip makers is just beginning. Last week, China announced the creation of photolithographic machines capable of producing chips using a very high technological process — above 8 nm. This is a leap over a decade and a half of progress in these technologies. Izvestia investigated why this is important and how it will change the global semiconductor market.
Main branch of industry
It is not so easy to find technology in the 21st century that does not use microchips. In fact, chips are a related field for almost all other industries. At the same time, it is a technically complex industry that requires unique competencies and equipment.
The number of countries that can do this in principle can be counted on the fingers of one hand: Taiwan, mainland China, South Korea, Japan, the USA , and that's about it (several other countries have local production facilities that are not the most significant on a global scale). Moreover, there is a large gap within this group: for example, the most advanced microchips at the moment are produced only by Taiwan, represented by the TSMC corporation.
But if the production of semiconductors as such is concentrated in a narrow circle of countries and companies, then the production of means of production for them is almost completely monopolized on a global scale. We are talking about photolithographic machines, which are necessary for applying a pattern to a board, a kind of "machines" for chips.
Formally, such machines are produced by several companies, but truly modern chips can only be made on equipment from the Dutch company ASML.
Once a small division of Philips, the company “came to success” by betting relentlessly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photolithography, which it had been developing for decades. There were years of losses along the way, but in the 2010s the technology finally took off. From 7 nm onwards, manufacturers use EUV equipment almost exclusively (with the exception of China, which we will discuss later). By the end of the last decade, ASML had gained a dominant position in the global market.
Machine for the price of an airplane
The cost of photolithographic equipment and its maintenance accounts for about 40% of the cost of chip production. The cost of one ASML machine is close to the cost of an Airbus airliner, and in terms of its physical volume, one such “machine” exceeds a regular bus (and an order of magnitude in weight). In fact, it is a mini-factory. The monopoly position in the market allows ASML to set prices at its own discretion. It cannot be said that the Dutch company often uses this position, but the lack of competition in any case makes manufacturers nervous. Moreover, there are delays in deliveries, and most importantly, in recent years the issue of semiconductor production has become extremely politicized.
First of all, problems arose with China, which increased its share of this market year after year. If in the early 2010s, China's share in global production was slightly more than zero, now it has exceeded 20% . All this coincided with the aggravation of US-Chinese relations and the AI race, for success in which a lot of semiconductors are needed.
The US administration imposed restrictions on the supply of chips to China, which affected not only US companies, but also market participants from other countries. However, Chinese companies continued to produce their own chips, and quite modern ones. For example, the Chinese company Yangtze Memory Technologies (YTMC) expanded the production of 3D NAND memory chips in 2023 (used, for example, in the production of SSDs - solid-state drives). Huawei, which was supposed to suffer first from the sanctions, sharply increased its own production last year. China managed to smoothly establish mass production of semiconductors using the 7 nm process technology (not the most modern, but sufficient for the vast majority of tasks) in sufficient quantities, which provided a respite for local electronics manufacturers.
The only way to somehow influence China's position in the industry was to restrict the supply of photolithographic equipment. In fact, ASML refused to supply EUV to China quite a long time ago. It was believed that without these machines it would be impossible to produce 7-nanometer chips. However, the Chinese have proven that previous-generation equipment is sufficient for this process technology - machines operating using deep ultraviolet (DUV) technology. This is somewhat less efficient than using EUV, but, given the enormous demand in the market and generous subsidies for manufacturers, it is more than profitable. Theoretically, these machines can also be used for higher process technologies (5 nm).
Two years for 15
Already this summer, the US once again put pressure on China's counterparties in Asia and Europe. The Dutch government announced that it was considering restricting DUV machine servicing in China. It should be noted that even before the sanctions were imposed, the Chinese were buying up this equipment in reserve, so technically there is more than enough of it. However, without servicing, serious problems may arise. For ASML, this is quite a headache: the company accounts for more than half of its sales in China. In addition, the Chinese have quite serious levers for applying retaliatory sanctions. As a result, a decision has not yet been made.
Be that as it may, China's dependence on foreign equipment made its position vulnerable. In China itself, only one company produces such machines - Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE). Until recently, however, its capacity was limited to producing primitive machines using the 90 nm process technology, which was considered modern in 2003. Such equipment is quite sufficient for producing chips used in military equipment. Accordingly, the US argument that measures are being taken to limit the capabilities of the Chinese army and navy looked completely unconvincing.
The restrictions have spurred the Chinese to import substitution and the creation of national alternatives, and ideally, a full cycle of chip production, starting with equipment. Photolithographic machines are incredibly complex to build, they require exceptionally high competencies, and it is impossible to work here on the principle of “this was needed yesterday” for any amount of money. Nevertheless, in mid-September it became known that an unspecified company (presumably SMEE) was able to produce two machines that can service 28 and 8 nm processes, respectively.
This is still worse than ASML, but for the Chinese, the progress is huge. It can be said that they have overcome about 15 years of development of the semiconductor industry in the shortest possible time. For the first time in the world, chips on 7 nm process technologies began to be produced no later than 2017.
This is already more than enough to produce microcircuits not only for the military, but also for most civilian industries. In fact, the only thing beyond China's capabilities is the production of some of the most advanced computer equipment, in particular, modern processors.
The reverse effect of sanctions
To be fair, it is not known exactly what state the production of these machines is in, whether we are talking about serial production or only about prototypes. In any case, if the equipment is working, then introducing it into production will not be so difficult, given that Beijing will take any steps to ensure the most complete independence from foreign suppliers in the current conditions. The fact that before reaching the required speed, when the economy of scale kicks in, it will be necessary to work at a loss for some time, is unlikely to bother anyone in China.
A year ago, it was reported that SMEE had also registered patents for EUV technology equipment. The situation is not yet completely clear: are we talking about machines that will soon be built and put into production or are we talking about theoretical research. In the first case, it will be possible to state that China has finally caught up with ASML, and its needs for foreign contractors will be much lower (but will not fall to zero: to produce chips, any player needs many parts from different countries. At the moment, this is a truly global industry).
If China can ensure the production of new equipment, then it will be possible to state that the American sanctions not only failed, but had the opposite effect. Now the PRC, fearing new and new restrictions, is trying to localize semiconductor production as much as possible, which was not observed a few years ago.
China's expected successes clearly demonstrate that, although the production of photolithographic machines is extremely complex, the task of raising the relevant industry is quite realistic under certain conditions. This could radically change the balance of power in the industry worldwide and virtually nullify any effect of sanctions. For third-party consumers, it is important that competition will arise in this industry, which can significantly refresh the sector and even lead to a decrease in prices, which are currently growing by leaps and bounds. For Russia, this should also simplify the purchase of chips for military, but primarily civilian needs.
https://iz.ru/1764390/dmitrii-migunov/kitaiskoe-cipirovanie-knr-dobilas-novogo-proryva-v-poluprovodnikah[/b]